Mot so nhan to tai chmh anh hu'dng den cau true von doanh nghiep co phan phi tai chmh niem yet tren HOSE
V 6 iWUNH LOMG*
Nghien.ctM^U^c-'thifc hiin trin m0t t4p dS li$u gSp, gSnt 984 quan sat doi vM 123 doanh nghi$p niim y^t trin Sd Giao dich Chiing. khodn TP. HS Chi Minh (HOSE) tit ndm 2008 din ndm 2013. Kit qud nghiin ctht chi ra rang, cd 3 nhan todnh h^g tich cifi: tdi cdu true y^n cM doanh ngki$p cSphdn phi tdi chinh Id Quy md doanh nghi$p (SIZE), Chi phi lai vay (INT), Thue suat thuithu nhdp doanh nghiip (TAX); cdn hi 03 nh&n t6tdc d^ng ngugc chiiu Id: T^
le s& dung tdi sdn c^dinh hOu hinh (TANG), Ltfi nhu4n trin tdng tdi sdn (ROA), Ty so thanh todn ngdn han (CR).
Tof kh6a: cau true v6n, cong ty niim yit, kh&ng hodng kinh ti Summary
The study is carried out with a pooled dataset, including 984 observers from 123 companies listed on Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE) from 2008 to 2015. The result identifies three factors affecting positively the capital structure of non-financial joint-stock companies, which are Scale of enterprises (SIZE), Interest expense (INT), Corporate income tax rates (TAX); and three others creating negative impact including Percentage of use of tangible fixed
assets (TANG), Return on assets (ROA), Short-term current ratio (CR). ^
Keywords: capital structure, listed companies, economic crisis^
Gl6lTHl£u CO sd LY THUYET VA PHl/ONC PHAP NGHIEN CLfU
Vdi cuOc khung hoang kinh t^ ndi
chung vk khung hoSng tai chinh ndi ridng Ctfsd If thuyet
k6o d^i trong nhiftig nam gin day, thi rtft Daraodaran (2006) cho rang, cSu tnic vd'n cua nhilu doanh nghiSp Vi§t Nam ndi chung doanh nghiep la stf pha trdn ciia nd vk vdn chu sd hiiu va ciic doanh nghlfip nidm y^t tr€n HOSE trong tdng nguon vdh di/qJc sO' dung de t&i trcf cho hoat ndi rieng ngay cang khd khan: doanh thu d6ng sdn xuaft kinh doanh. Vdi khai nifim cSu trfic vd'n sut giam, n0 khd dbi tSng... Dac bi$t, t^ 16 n^y k^t hdp vdi cac nin t^ng cdc 1^ thuyet li8n quan mi so vdi tai sSn qua cao va h | u qua gSy d^n cS^u true von, nhif: 1;^ thuyet M&M, 1^ thuyS't d^nh ra la tii nhi^u doanh nghidp kh6ng th€ ddi c^u true von, 1^ thuyet tr|t ttf phSn hang, i^ thuygt trd dtfdc nd, san xuS^t hi dinh ddn, pha sdn chi phi dai di$n... cho r^ng, cSu tide vSn bj \Ac dOng bdi tang cao... NgoSi ra, hi$n nay, cac nghi6n nhieu yeu t^, nhtf: ldi ich ciia Id ch^n thu^, khd nang ctfu ve tdc ddng cua cdc nhan td dgn c^u sinh ldi, quy md doanh nghiep, cung nhtf chi phi lai vay trdc vdn trong giai doan n^y chtfa nhilu. ciia doanh nghi$p...
Do dd, tac gia thtfc hiSn nghidn ctfu Ngoai ra, vdi cac nghiSn ci3^ thtfc nghidm cfia mdt nay vdi mong mudh lam ro inOt sd nhSn sd tac gid v^ md^i quan he ciia cS'u frdc vdn vdi cic i6 tai chinh tic dOng ddn cSu tnic vdn nhSn td khdc, nhtf: Tr^n Hung Sdn (2011) cho rang, Clia doanh nghidp cd phin phi tai chinh. tinh thanh khodn cd mdi quan ha ngtfdc chi^u vdi c^\v ' ThS., Trt/dng Dai hgc Md TP. H6 Chi Mmh I Email: [email protected]
Ng&y nh^n bai: 30/12/2016; Nghyphdn bi$n: 06/02/2017; Nghy duy&t ding: 16/02/2017
Economy and Forecast Review O J
HIMH: MO HIMH NGHIEN CdU DE XUAT Quy mo doanh
nghiep
Ty trong tai san CO dinh hthi hinh
Ty suat sinh 161 tren VCSH
Cau true von doanh nghiep
\
\
\
Chi phi lai vay
Ty le thue TNDN
Tinh thanh khoan
BAt^G 1: KET Q U A KIEM TRA TIMH DCTNG
T g n b i e n
P - v a l u c
K e t l u a n DA (1 0 0 0 0
Dirng S I Z E
0 0 0 0 0
D i m s T A N G
0 0 0 0 0
Dirni;
ROE 0 0 0 0 0
D i m g INT 0 0 0 0 0
Difng TAX 0.000(1
Difng CR 0 00(10
Difnj;
BAMG 2 : K E T QCIA HE S O Tt/OMG Q G A N P E A R S O N (R)
S I Z E
T A N G ROE INT TAX CR
S I Z E
1 0 0 0
0 0 0 7
0 13(1
0 4 1 2
0 081
-0 0(.5 T A N G
1 0 0 0
-0 0 9 9
0 n s 4
-0 0 1 4
-0 0S7 ROE
1,000
-0.057
-0.05.1
0 0 1 4 INT
1 0 0 0
0 0 0 4
-1) 2 4 0 TAX
1 0 0 0
-0 0 0 9 CR
1 (10(1
triic \ o n ; L e Dat Chi 12013 I c h o King, n h a n to t h u e giiJ vai iro qtian trong trong hoach d m h can Irtic von va lac d o n g lich ctfc de'n can tnic \o'n.
T r e n ccf sii cac hiing clu'fng ihtfc n g h i e m . nghiC-n ct'fn sc k c thtfa mot so y ttrdng tif c;ic nghien ciVu Irtrdc.
dtnig thid se hii song cung nhtf co sir dicn chinh d e phii h((p hdn \ d i noi d u n g nghiC-n ctin la mot so n h a n to lai chinh anh htrting den ca'u iriic \6'n doanh n g h i e p i,o p h a n phi liii Lhinh nicm \c'l iren H O S E , tac gui du'a ra c.ic bicn nghien cii'ii cuny nhtr mo hinh nL'hicn cifu d c
\u,Vi nhtrlTinh
Mi) liinh n^ahicn Hindi' \iidr
D.\ = V = fi„ + | i S i 7 c + \\\.\\G + \] ROE ,
|^,INT^ + | n - A \ + | i C R + u 11}
Troni: do:
- p . ILin-zso',
-P',.|K. - Ii = l l c s o \ ; n c .
- D A : Bi6'n d a i d i e n c h o cS'u tnic vd'n, d o b a n g ty l e n d t r e n t o n g tai s a n ;
- C R : T y so^ t h a n h t o a n n g a n han, do Itfdng b a n g tai s a n n g a n h a n / n d ngan h a n ;
- S I Z E : Q u y m o d o a n h n g h i e p . do Itfdng bdi logarit c u a t o n g g i a tri tai san c u a d o a n h n g h i e p ;
- T A N G : T y l e s i l d u n g tai s a n co'dinh hihi hinh, d o Itfdng b a n g ty l e tai san c6' dinh huU h i n h / t o n g t a i s a n ;
- I N T : C h i p h i lai v a y , d o Itfdng bdi logarit c u a c h i phi lai v a y cua doanh n g h i e p ;
- T A X T h u e sua't ihue'thu n h a p doanh n g h i e p , d o Itfdng b h n g chi phi thue thu n h a p d o a n h n g h i e p / l d i n h u a n tru'dc thue, - R O E : L d i n h u a n t r e n vo'n chu sd hiTu, d o lifdng bdi ldi n h u a n sau thue iren vo'n chu sd hifu b i n h q u a n .
Phuong phdp nghien cdu Phuong phdp nghien cifu. Bat vie't p h a n lich h e so Itfdng q u a n giifa cac bien va thtfc hien c a c hoi quy tuye'n tinh vdi dir lieu b a n g b a n g c a c p h t f d n g p h a p : (1) Mo hinh hoi quy g o p ( P o o l e d O L S ) , (2) Mo hinh tac d o n g c o ' d i n h ( F E M ) va (3) Mo hinh l a c d o n g n g a u n h i e n ( R E M ) Sau khi hdi quy, n g h i e n ciJu s e thtfc hien cac k i e m dinh, nhtf: F test. Breusch - Pagan L a g r a n g e M u l t i p l i e r ( L M ) , Hausman test d c lifa chtm md hinh phu hdp. Ngoiii ra, n g h i e n ctfu con k i e m ira c a c khuye'i (at etia md hinh, nhtf phu'dng sai thay d o i . ttf Itfdng q u a n va da c o n g tuyen de nc'u cd c a c h i e n itfdng nay xay ra thi se khac phuc b a n g phtfdng phdp phu hdp hdn (Bai viei sd d u n g each viel so ihiip p h a n Ihco c h u a n quo'c t e ) .
Dif lieu iiiihien i du: man dtfdc chon bao g d m 123 d o a n h n g h i e p dtf((c niem yet lai H O S E trong giai d o a n 2nOX-20L'i.
vdi long c o n g 9 8 4 quan sat. Dt")'i lu'dng n g h i e n ctfu p h a i ihda m a n 3 dieu kien 11) D a m e m y e t trifdc n a m 20DX va lien tiep n i c m yet 8 n a m tren H O S E . ( 2 | C;ic b a o c a o lai chinh dtfdc kiein loan day dii.
| 3 ) C a c linh vtfc phi tai chinh (gdm ctic ITnh \ t f c . nhtf ihtfc p h a m \ a d o uong. bin d d n g san, tin n g u y c n ai b;in, xay difng
\."i vai h e u . o In \ii jihu limg. y tc .) KETQUA NGHIEN CU'U
Kieni Ira tinh ddng ciia cdc chiibi so lieu Kel i_|ua kicm ii,i tinh thing C.K chuoi so h e n cti:i Iting hicn trong mo hinh ihc hien Iicii Bansi 1,
22
Ke't q u a k i e m dinh t h e h i e n t r e n B a n g 1 c h o tha'y, tat c a c a c c h u d i s o ' l i e u c u a tCfng bie'n d e u diJfng v a cd y n g h i a tho'ng k e .
Phdn tich h? sotiidng quan Ket q u a h e so' ttfdng q u a n gitfa c a c bie'n dtfdc trinh b a y d B a n g 2 .
Ke't qua t h e h i e n t r e n B a n g 2 c h o tha'y, gitfa c a c c a p bie'n d o c l a p cd mo'i Itfdng q u a n rat tha'p. V a y n g h i e n ctfu tie'p tuc p h a n tich hoi q u y .
Ket qud hoi quy
Ket qud hoi quy bang phtXcfng phdp Pooled OLS, FEM vd REM (Bdng 3)
Ke't q u a d B a n g 3 c h o tha'y:
- Dd'i vdi m o hinh hoi q u y g o p ( P o o l e d O L S ) cd R - ! a 2 5 . 5 1 % - tiJc la c a c b i e n doc l a p giai thich dtfdc 2 5 . 5 1 % stf t h a y doi Clia bie'n D A va *Prob>F=0.o6oO<a ( a = 5 % ) : b a c b o gia t h u y e t H nghia la cho b i e t k i e m dinh F-test r a t phii h d p vdi md hinh tdng t h e c u n g d o n g nghTa vdi P - v a l u e < ( ) . 0 5 : c o y nghia v e m a t tho'ng k e .
- Ddi vdi m o hinh hoi quy tiic ddng cd' dinh ( F E M ) c d F - i e s t = 0 . 0 0 0 0 < a ( t t = 5 % ) bdc bd giii thuyel H nghTa la c h o biet k i e m dinh F-test rat phii h d p vdi md hinh tdng t h e , d o n g nghTa vdi P - v a l u e < a ia=59c). CO y nghTa v e m a t thd'ng k e . T u y n h i e n . cd he so' hdi quy rieng cua m()t so' bien d o c lap khdng cd y nghTa ihd'ng k e . nhif T A N G , T A X do cd P-value>r/
(f/-5'7.).
- Dd'i vdi mo hinh hdi quy tac d o n g ngflu nhien i R E M ) cd P r o b > F = 0 . 0 0 0 0 < « 1(7=5%): bac hd gia ihuye'i H , nghTa la cho biet k i e m d m h F-lesl rat phii h d p vdi md hinh long t h e . d o n g nghTa vdi P-v;ilue<0.05. co y nghTa v e mat tho'ng ke Tuy n h i e n , cd he sd hoi quy i i e n g Clia mt")l so bien d d c lap khong co y nghTa thdng k e . nhtf T A N G . T A X do cd P - \ a l u c > ( / (tt=59f I
- C a n ctV \ a o ket qua k i e m dinh F dtfdc lilnh h:"i\ (( Bang 3. cti P i o b > F = O.OOCK)
< o I a=5'", ) gui thuyel H„ bi bac ho' 1~EM sc phii h o p lufn so \ d i pi'iolcd O L S . Ben I anil d o . kci L|ua kic-m dinh H a u s m a n cho l h j \ . Pioh>chi2 = ().0(K)0<r/ io=5''^ l:
gui ihuyel H„ bi b.ic bii: mo hinh F F M hi phi! h d p h d n ' s o M d R E M ,
\ h i i \ a \ . so s.inh Pooled O I . S . I FM x.i R E M . liii ..K kcl qiui kicm dmh lu-i chon 1110 li'inh deu cho l h a \ . inn linili I F M lii phii ht(p hdn "I ti\ iihicii. md liinli 1 FM sc k i c m Ira c;ic khu\ ci hit h^ng ^.i<^
kiem d m h . nhu' hien lu'dng phifdng sai Ten bie'n
SIZE TANG ROE INT TAX CR
^cons Prob>F R-sqiiared
BANG 3: TOMC H0P KET QUA H 6 I QUY Pooled OLS
HfsfT hdiquy 0 0600042 -0,0627025 -0-2017079 0 0256793 0.0715154 -0.0084464 -0.4553343
P-ValiK
0 000 0 041 0.000 0.000 0-003 0.000 0.001 0.0000 0.2551
FEM
hSi quy 0 2209346 0.0180233 -0.0935262 0 0095608 0 0055868 -0.0039471 -2271011
P-Value
0.0000 0.6290 0.0000 0.0000 0 6640 0.0000 0-0000 0-0000 0.2449
REM
hdiquy 0.1691401 -0.0054236 -0 1132574 0.010945 0.0114853 -0 0042259 -1.652877
P<VaIae
0.0000 0.8750 0 0000 0,0000 0.3820 0.0000 0 0000 0 0000 0.2383 Kiem dinh liia chon mo hinh
F-iesi Hausman lest
0.0000 1 0.0000
BAtiG 4: KET QUA KIEM DIMH HiEt^ T d d N G P H d d M G SAI THAY DOI, DA CONG TCIYEN VA T d T d d M G Q U A N Ki^m dinh
Phifi- DaL T i n
ny sai lluiy dni o . , . . y C . a rnnj; qu,m
Tobin's Q PIi>ti>i,lli2=ll 00(10 VIF<H) Prob>l =0 0000
K£'t qua Cd hie Kh(ing Cd luL-
ti/ifrij; phi/diig sjL (h.Lv ddi
• . - . h , 6 n , « „ 8 d a » n s m , £ - „ liTdnj; iLf li/iing qujii
B A M G 5. KET QUA HOI QUY B A N G PHCl'dNG P H A P G L S
Bien d^c lap
S l / H T A N G ROI£
I N T T A X CR _.uns
Bien phu thuoc D A H 9 sd'lidi (|uy
1) 0600042 -0 0627025 -0 2017079 11025679-1 0 0715154 -|)O0S4464 -0 4553143
P-Value 0 000 0 040 0 000 0 000 0 003 0 000 0 001
thay dot. ur urdng q u a n vii da c o n g tuye'n vii nc'u co khuyei liii ihi se khflc phuc biing mo hinh hoi quy GL.S
Kiem tra tinh khuyet tat ciia md hinh Vdi kcl qu.i the hicn ii Bang 4 . ihi mo hinh c() kluiy cl liil hi hicn Itfdng phtfdng ,sai lhay doi vii ttf itfdng i.|u:iii.
nen nghien ctVu sC- thtfc hien h6i cjuy biing phitdng p h a p G L S d e k h i c phue C.IL k h u y e l liit niiy,
Kel <pid hdiqitv bdui; plufi/ni; phdp CLS {Biini; 5i Kel qua the hien tren Bang 5 c h o hie'l. la'l c.i c.ic hien doc lap tieu U c dong d e n gia in doanh niihiC-p vii d e u CO \ nghTa thonti k e .
23
KET LUAN VA KIEN NGHj
Vcii mot doanh nghiep, cau true _yon b| tac dong cua rat nhieu nhan to ca lai chinh lin phi tai chinh.
Tuy nhien, can ctf vao ly thuyet cau tnic von, cQng nhtf cac thtfc nghiem trong va ngoai nKdc, ket qua nghien ctfu cho thay, cd 06 nhan to anh htfdng den ca'u triic von ciia doanh nghiep. Trong do, cd 03 nhan to' tac dong tich ctfc den cau true vo'n la: SIZE, INT, TAXI, 03 nhan to'con lai gom TANG, ROA, CR thi ngtfdc lai. Cu the nhtf sau:
Nhdm bie'n cd tdc dong tich cue de'n cdu true von:
- Bien SIZE: co ket qua ciang chieu (+) vdi DA va cd y nghTa thong ke cf mtfc I %. Ket qua nay chi ra rang, neu doanh nghiSp tang quy md thong q^ua chi tieu tai san, ttfc la neu doanh nghiep dau ttf de md rong quy mo, thi se can tim them nguon tai trd vii nghien ctfu cho tha'y, cac doanh nghiep thich %is dung nhieu nd hdn. Ben canh dd, khi doanh nghiep niem yet quy md cang Idn, thtfcSng cd uy tin cao hdn nhtfng doanh nghiep quy md nho, do vay ho tiep can vd'n vay ttf ben ngoai dS hdn.
- Bien INT: vdi doanh nghiep khi hoat ddng, thi chi phi lai vay (dtfdc sinh ra tif vay nd) chinh la chi phi tai chinh nen doanh nghiep se tie't kiem dtfdc thue'.
VI vay, khi doanh nghiep cang diing nd nhieu, thi nd se tac dong la cho chi phi lai vay cang Ien va doanh nghiep cang giam thue thu nhap phai nop (liet kiem thue). VI vay. chUng cd quan he cung chieu vdi nhau vii nghien ctfu nay phti hdp vdi ly thuyet TOT.
- Bie'n TAX co lac dt'ing lich ctfc de'n can true von.
vi vay, nghien ctfu ke't luan rang khi thue sua! thu nhiip citng cao, thi doanh nghiep se tim nguon tai trd bSng nd do nd dtfttc tiei kicm Ihue ciing nhieu. Tuy nhien, khi doanh nghiep ciing tang nd, thi chi phi kho'n khd liti chinh se tang liim cho ldi ich ciia hi chfln thue'giam dan vii cd the triel lieu khi doanh nghiep cd'gang gia lang ty sd'nd qua cao.
Nhom bicn co lin ddng tieu cite den < du inic vd'n:
- Bicn TANG vdi mdi doanh nghiep cd ly trong tin
san co' dinh tren tdng tai san cao, chdlig to doanh nghiep dau ttf mang tinh dai han va cd khuynh htfdng hien dai hoa may mdc, thie't bi nham nang cao chat Itfdng san pham, ciing nhtf tang kha nang canh tranh cua doanh nghiep hay san pham tren thi trtfdng ca trong va ngoai ntfdc.
Tuy nhien, khi dau ttf dai han, thi ti^m an rui ro Idn, nen khi dd neu doanh nghiep stJ dung nhieu nd vay thi cd the tan dung dtfdc don bay hoat ddng, nhtfng cung dtfa lai rui ro kha Idn va ngtfdc lai. Vdi cac doanh nghiep trong raau nghien cii^ cua giai doan nay thi diing vd'n chu sd hii\i de dau ttf cho lai san co'dinh nham giam thieu rui ro.
- Bien ROE: Ke'l qua nghien ciJu cho thay, he so' hoi quy cua ROE cd tac dong ngtfdc chieu vdi DA. Ke't qua nay cho tha'y, cac doanh nghiep trong mau nghten ctfu khi cd kha nang sinh ldi cao, thi ldi nhuan se gitf lai dtfdc nhieu hdn de tat dau ttf, khi dd nhu cau su" dung nd vay cd xu htfdng giam.
- Bie'n CR. vdi doanh nghiep. thi linh thanh khoan la mot chi tieu rat quan trong ma chii nd quan lam khi cho doanh nghiep vay. Tuy nhien. vdi vai tro ngtfdi di vay trong mau nghien ctfu nay, thi khi doanh nghiep nhieu tai san cd linh thanh khoan cao se tfu lien su" dung cac tai san nay. de tai trd cho cac dtf an cua minh hdn la sij" dung nd vay.
Ke't qua nghien ctfu nay la cd sd de cac nha quiin ly cd them bang chtfng khoa hoc trong qua trinh hoach dinh cau triic vdn, nhhm giiip doanh nghiep giam ihieu riil ro va nang cao hieu qua trong qua ninh hoat dong •
L! stf 12(109) Dif hdo vd phdn tich dd lieu trong kinh le vii lin T.AILIKl n i V M K H A O
1. Ngiiven Trong Hoiii \ ii cac
<liinh. Nvh Thdng ke
2. Lc Dal Chi |2I)I3| Cac nh;in td anh liu'dng de'n vice hoach dmh ca'u triic vd'n cua cac nha quaniri lin chinh uii Viel \ a m . Tap chi Phal liicn vd Hoi nlidp. so 9 119). thtins 1)3-04/201 3, irang 22-2K
3. han Hting Sdn (201 I i Diic diem doanh nghiep vii td'c dd dieu chinh ca'u true vd'n muc iicii cua c.ic doanh nghiep san vua'l edng nghiep mem vet lai Viet Nam, Tap chi Phdi men Khoa hoc vu Cinii; ir^he. so 03/201 1. irang 22-39
4. Aswaih Damodaran 12006), Dndinsi wiih lnlani;ihle.s: Wilinin; Biand .Vaiiies. Llexihilily hlexihihiy andPaciils
5. (iiiihdi Huang and 1 rank M Song l20(lf.i The Delcrminanis ol Capiial Slntciure [:vidcncc
11 nm China, Clima l:com>i}iic Review. V o l u m e 17. Issue I. P a g e s 14-3f>6 \ a l u i m Bigci \ a i n \" \ g u _ \ c n . Q u v e n X Ho.ing |2I)1I7| The J c i e n n i n a n l s ni capiial siiiiciuie F.Milcnce Irom \ i e l n a n i , Inicnialioiuil Fiiunuc Review. V o l u m e S Ivmeiakl Chuiip I'libhshing Liiiiilcd. pp 3117-326
