CHilMH S A C H S T H I
T R U C J I M GT A I C H I M H - T I E M T f
N h u Ciiu t h a m gia
n0ng nghi#P cua hi^ nyfii "Com au a O o n g bang Song O J U L o n g
TS. NGUYiN QU6C NGHI
Nghien cieu ndy duac thuc hiin nhdm xdc dinh cdcyiu to dnh hu&ng den nhu cdu tham gia bdo hiem nong nghiep cua nong ho nuoi torn su &D6ng bdng Song Cieu Long (DBSCL). So lieu cua nghien cieu duac thu thdp bdng cdch phong vdn true tiip 216 ho nuoi tom su & 2 tinh Bac Lieu vd Soc Trdng. Ifng dung mo hinh hoi qui logit, ket qud phdn tich cho thdy, cdc nhdn to dnh hu&ng den nhu cdu tham gia bdo hiem nong nghiep ciia ho nuoi tom sii Id trinh do hoc vdn, diin tich, ndng sudt, rui ro nong nghiep, miec do hiiu biit vi bdo hiem. Trong do, nhdn to riii ro nong nghiip dnh hu&ng mgnh nhdt den nhu cdu tham gia bdo hiim ciia nong ho.
Tir khda: nong ho, bdo hiem nong nghiep, torn sit, dong bdng song Cim Long.
1. Dat van de
Ddng bing sdng Ciiu Long (DBSCL) la mdt trong hai ddng bing ldn nhit ciia Viet Nam.
Ngoai lyc lugng lao ddng ddi dao vdi khoang 18 trieu dan, trong dd, khoang 80% dan sd sdng d khu vyc ndng thdn (GSO, 2014), DBSCL cdn cd the manh ve ndng nghiep, dugc menh danh la vya lua cua ca nudc, ddng thdi la vya trai cay, la nai nudi trdng va xuit khiu thuy san chu lyc. Thing lpi ciia san xuit ndng nghiep, nhit la nudi trdng thiiy san da thiic diy kinh tl d khu vyc DBSCL phat ttiln, nang cao thu nhap va dn djnh ddi sdng cho ngudi ndng dan. Tuy nhien, nganh thuy san ndi chung, dac biet la nganh hang tdm sii ndi rieng ludn cd nhilu biln ddng, phat ttiln chua bin vung, tang trudng trong thdi gian qua chii ylu theo chilu rdng thdng qua tang dien
tich, tang vu, to dd tiem an nhieu nii ro. Theo Quyet djnh sd 315/TTg cua Thii todng Chinh phu ve thuc hien thi dilm bao hilm ndng nghiep giai doan 2011- 2013, ngudi nudi tdm sii, tdm the chan ttang tai Bin Tre, Sdc Trang, Tra Vinh, Bac Lieu, Ca Mau la ddi togng dugc bao hilm. Khi ban hanh Quylt dinh nay, Thu todng Chinh phil ciing neu rd muc dich nham hd trg cho ngudi san xuat ndng nghiep ndi chung va ndng hd nudi tdm sii noi rieng chu ddng khic phuc va bii dip thiet hai tai chinh do hau qua ciia thien tai, dich benh gay ra, gdp phan dam bao dn djnh an sinh xa hdi va thiic day san xuat ndng nghiep. Sau 2 nam thyc hien thi dilm bao hilm, toy chuang ttinh da dat dugc nhiing thanh cdng budc dau nhung chuang trinh vln dang vap phai nhiing khd khan nhat dinh, quan trpng ban ca la su han che ve nhan thiic ciia ndng hd ddi vdi lgi ich ciia chuang trinh. Tir do, anh hudng den kha nang tham gia chuang trinh bao hiem
>8
AP CHi KHOA HQC & DAO TAO NGAN HAIv SO 170-IHANG 7.2Chfnh sach & thj tnuong Tai chfnh - Ten t e
ndng nghiep cua ndng hd. Chinh vi the, nghien cim nay dugc thyc hien nham xac dinh cac nhan td anh hudng den nhu cau tham gia bao hiem ndng nghiep cua ndng hd nudi tdm sii d DBSCL. Day la ca sd khoa hpc quan ttpng de nganh ndng nghiep va dan vi bao hiem nghien ciiu, trien khai cac chuang trinh bao hiem ndng nghiep phii hgp han.
2. Phirong phap nghien cihi 2.1. Mo hinh nghien cuu
Chu de nghien ciiu bao hiem ndng nghiep ludn nhan dugc sy quan tam dac biet cua cac nha nghien ciiu, cac nha hoach dinh chinh sach. Theo M. Njavro et al (2007) va Gudbrand Lien et al (2003), mdt ttong nhiing each phdng ngita rui ro hieu qua cho ndng dan la su dung bao hiem ttong san xuat de cd the
bii dip thiet hai khi rui ro xay ra. Tuy nhien, khdng phai bit ky ngudi ndng dan nao ciing nhan thurc dugc dilu dd va su dung cdng cu phdng ngira, miic dp tham gia bao hiem cdn phu thudc vao nhieu yeu td. Kit qua nghien ciiu cua Goodwin et al (1993) da xac djnh, dien tich san xuit, tdng chi phi cd anh hudng din nhu cau tham gia bao hiem ndng nghiep cia ndng hd. Makki et al (2001) cho rang, ndng hd vdi quy md san xuat cang ldn se ddi mat vdi nhieu loai rui ro thi nhu cau tham gia bao hilm ndng nghiep cang cao. Mdt sd nghien ciiu ttong nudc ciia cac tac gia Nguyen Van Song va Chu Thi Thao (2011), Nguyen Qudc Nghi (2013) vl nhu ciu tham gia bao hiem ndng nghiep cua ndng hp cung cho ket qua toang ty. Thdng qua lugc khao tai lieu nghien ciiu, ddng thdi qua khao sat thyc te, tac gia thiet lap Bang 1. Dien giai bien doc lap trong mo hinh nghien cihi
Bien Diln giai bien Ky
vong Trinh dp hpc van cua lao ddng chinh, nhan gia trj la
TRINHDO sd nam d i n tru'dng cua ndng hp tinh d i n thdi diem nghien cii'u (nam).
Nguyen Van Song va cdng
sy (2011), Nguyin Qudc Nghi -^
(2013) Kinh nghiem nudi tdm su cua lao ddng chinh, nhan KINHNGHIEM gia trj tipgng irng vdi sd nam nudi tdm ciia chii ho
tinh d i n thdi diem nghien ciru (nam).
Nguyen Qudc Nghi (2013) Goodwin et al (1993), Makki et al (2001), Nguyin Van Song ^ va cpng sy (2011), Nguyin
Qiidf^Nghi(?013) Dien tich nudi tdm sii cua ndng hd, biln nay nhan
DIENTICH gia trj tirang ipng vdi tong dien tich mat nipdc nudi tdm sil cua ndng hd (1.000m2).
RUIRONN
Nhan gia trj tifcng irng vdi sd riii ro ve dieu kien san xu§t, tai chinh va thj trifdng: Thdi tilt; ngudn nu'dc; djch benh; con gidng; thilu von; lai suit vay vdn tang hoac viec mua chju thay ddi; sy thay doi gia y l u td d§u vao, gia ban ndng san va tinh hinh tieu thu san pham (sd riJI ro).
James Hanson et al (2004),
Nguyin Qudc Nghi (2013), + Rob Fraser (1992)
NANGSUAT Nhan gia trj tirccng irng vdi mirc nang suat tdm sii ndng hp thu hoach du'gc a vu gSn nhit (kg/1000m2).
Rob Fraser (1992), Nguyen Van Song va cdng sy (2011) Nhan gia trj 1 neu ndng hd cd tham gia hgp tac, to
THAMGIAHTX hgp tac hoac cac hdi doan the ndng nghiep d dja Tac gia d l xult phifcyng, nhan gia trj 0 n l u ngu'pc lai.
TONGCHIPHI Nhan gia trj tu'dng ipng vdi tong chi phi dau t y cua ndng hd vu nudi tdm g i n nhit (trieu ddng).
Nguyen Qudc Nghi (2013), Goodwin etal (1993) Nhan gia trj 1 neu ndng hd cd tham gia tap huan ky
TAPHUAN thuat san xult tdm trong vu nghien ciru va nhan gia trj 0 nlu ngirgc lai.
Nguyin Qudc Nghi (2013)
MDHIEUBIET
Sy hieu biet cua ndng hd ve bao hiem: Thu tuc, quy djnh, lgi ich.., nhan gia tri tif 1-5 theo mirc dp hieu bilt tu'gng u'ng vdi hoan toan khdng bilt = 1 cho d i n bilt r i t rd = 5.
Pat et al (2010), Njavro et al (2007)
Ngudn: Tdc gid tong hcrp vd dixudt, 2013
IHANG 7.2016-SO 170 ?P CHi KHOA HOC & DAO TAO NGAN HAK
2 9
Chfnh sach S i t h j t r u o n g Tai chfnh - Teinte
md hinh xac dinh cac nhan td anh hudng den nhu cau tham gia bao hiem cila hd nudi tdm sii d DBSCL nhu sau:
NHUCAUBH = P„ + p,TRINHDO + pjKINHNGHIEM -I-
P3DIENTICH + P^RUIRONN + P, NANGSUAT + p JHAMGIAHTX + P,TAPHUAN + PjTONGCHIPHI + p,MDHIEUBIET
Trong do: Biln NHUCAUBH la bien phu thupc, nhan gia trj 1 neu ndng hp nudi tdm sii cd nhu
ciu tham gia bao hiem gia hoac bao hiem san lugng hoac bao hiem ca hai va nhan gia ttj 0 neu ndng hd khdng cd nhu cau. Cac bien dpc lap trong md hinh dugc dien giai trong bang 1.
2.2. Phuo-ng phdp thu thap so lieu
Kich thudc mau toy thudc vao cac phuang phap udc lugng trong nghien ciiu va cd nhieu quan diem khac nhau. Theo Green (1991) ca mau tdi thieu can dat dugc ttong phan tich hdi qui dugc tinh bang cdng thiic: 50 + 8m (tn: sd bien ddc lap). Md hinh nghien ciiu thiet lap vdi 8 bien ddc lap, toe la kich thudc man tdi thieu la 114 quan sat. Nhdm nghien ciiu da td chirc thu thap sd lieu sa cap theo phuang phap chpn mau han ngach (quota) trong khoang thdi gian tir thang 9/2013 din thang 10/2013, tdng sd quan sat dat dugc la 216, trong do, cd 116 hd nudi tdm sii d tinh Bac Lieu va 100 hp nudi tdm su d tinh Sdc Trang.
3. K§t qua nghien cii'u va thao luan 3.1. Mpt so dac diem chung cda nong hp Theo ket qua khao sat (Bang 2) cho thiy, chil hp nudi tdm sii cd toli ddi tuang ddi cao, tiling binh khoang 45 todi vdi sd nam kinh nghiem nudi tdm sii trung binh la 12 nam ddi vdi hp nudi tdm sii d Bac Lieu va 15 nam ddi vdi hd nudi tdm sii d Sdc Trang. Nudi torn sii la hoat ddng kinh t l chu ylu va da trd thanh nghi truyin thing cua phin ldn ndng hd ven biln d 2 tinh Bac Lieu va Sdc Trang. Tuy nhien, trinh dp hpc vin cua lao dpng chinh tryc tilp
Bang 2. Dac diem chung ciia nong ho C h i t i e u
B g c L i e u , . . S o c Trang ^ a Trung D p lech Trung Op lech
% binh chuan binh chuan_
Tuoi cua lao ddng chinh (nam) 45,29 12,59 45,26 10,80 Trinh dp cua lao ddng chinh (Idp) 8,31 3,15 7,54 3,34 Kinh nghiem nudi tdm (nam)
Dien tich mat nu'dc (1.000m2) So lao ddng t r y c t i l p (ngu'di)
11,91 5,89 15,28 5,99 13,80 13,23 10,85 7,69
1,78 0,81 1,71 0,71 So t i l n vay ngan hang (trieu dong) 53,30 58,38 48,26 38,63 Sd t i l n vay t u ' n h a n (trieu ddng) 47,03 55,59 12,00 6,31 Sd t i l n vay ngu'di than (trieu ddng) 57,87 57,64 16,67 5,77 Nguon: So lieu dieu tra cua tdc gid, 2013 nudi tdm sii cdn toang ddi thap (khoang ldp 8), dilu nay da gay anh hudng nhat djnh den kha nang tilp can khoa hpc ky thuat va thdng tin thj trudng.
Ngudn vdn san xuat ciia ndng hd chu yeu la tir vay muon cac ngan hang, vay to nhan (vdi lai suat cao) hoac mugn tir ngudi than va ban be. Ket qua khao sat cdn cho thay, dien tich mat nudc nudi tdm sii cm ndng hd d tinh Bac Lieu trung binh la 13.802 m^ va 10.853 m^ ddi vdi ndng hd d Sdc Trang. Sd lao dong gia dinh cila ndng hd tryc tiep nudi tdm su khoang 2 ngudi, chiem toong duang 50% nhan khau ciia ndng hd.
3.2. Dac diem nuoi torn su cua nong hp Vdi sire hap dan cua lgi nhuan, nhilu ndng hd da ndng vdi ttong cai tao ao dam, tien hanh san xuat nghjch mua nen nguy ca ddi mat vdi cac rui ro nong nghiep, dac biet la riii ro san xuit la r i t ldn. Ddi v6i md hinh tham canh, cd khoang 77,59% ndng hp nudi 1 vu/nam va 22,41% ndng hd nudi 2 vu/nam.
Bang 3. Dac diim san xuSt ciia nong hd B a c U e u ' ? ? J S 6 c Trang ' T i n sd Ty le T i n so Ty le
(hd) (%) (hd) (%) Chi tieu
1. So vu nuoi - 1 vu/nam - 2 vu/nam
2. T h a m gia t a p h u a n - Khdng tham gia tap h u l n - Cd tham gia tap h u l n 3. T h a m gia hap t a c xa - Khdng tham gia h g p tac xa - Cd tham gia hgp tac xa
90 26 14 102 102 14
77,59 22,41 12,07 87,93 87,93 12,07
66 66,00 34 34,00 64 64,00 36 36,00 87 87,00 13 13,00 Nguon: So lieu dieu tra cua tdc gid, 20R
3 0 AP CHi KHOA HOC & DAO TlJO NGAN HAN S017n- Uiuir.v*
Hhfnh sach &thj truong Tai chfnh - Ten te
ARR con giSng
RR djch benh
RR ngu6n nuac
Md hinh ban tham canh, cd khoang 66% ndng hd nudi 1 vu/nam va 34% ndng hd nudi 2 vu/ nam.
De nudi tdm mang lai hieu qua kinh te cao, ddi hdi cac ndng hd phai nam bat dugc cac tieu chuan va quy trinh ky thuat. Sd lieu khao sat cho thay, ty le ndng hd tham gia tap huan ky thuat san xuat tdm d Bac Lieu la 87,96%, con sd nay d tinh Sdc Trang la 36%. Nguyen nhan ndng hd khdng tham gia tap huan vi hp cho rang phan ldn cac ldp tap huan do cac cdng ty thiic an thuy san td chiic de quang cao thudc va thiic an mdi, khdng
mang lai nhieu lgi ich cho ndng hd. Ben canh dd, cac ldp tap huan ve ky thuat, quy ttinh nudi tdm sach ba con van chua that sy quan tam vi chi phi dau to va quy trinh ky thuat phiic tap.
De nang cao kinh nghiem san xuat, hd ttg thdng tin thj trudng, ndng hd thudng chu ddng tham gia cac hgp tac xa. Tuy nhien, ty le ndng hd tham gia van cdn rat khiem tdn, 12,07% d tinh Bac Lieu va 13% d tinh Sdc Trang.
Mdt trong nhung nguyen nhan quan ttpng dan den nhieu ndng hd khdng tham gia hgp tac xa la do dien tich san xuat nhd, khdng thay nhieu lgi ich khi tham gia, hgp tac xa hoat ddng khdng hieu qua. Day la van de khdng chi rieng ddi vdi nganh hang tdm sii, chinh vi the, cac hgp tac xa thiiy san ndi rieng va hgp tac xa ndng nghiep ndi chung rat can mdt cudc cai td thuc chat.
3.3. Rdi ro nong nghiep doi vdi nong hp sdn xudt tom sd Nudi trdng thuy san ndi chung va nudi tdm sii ndi rieng la nganh tiem an nhieu riii ro, theo thyc te khao sat, ndng hd nudi tdm su dang ddi mat vdi 3 nhdm rui ro:
Rili ro san xuat, rui ro thj trudng va rui ro tai chinh.
Rui ro sdn xudt: Theo kit qua khao sat cho thay, 100% ndng hp d tinh Bac Lieu gap phai nii ro djch benh phan tring, chit khdng rd nguyen nhan (hdi chiing EMS), ddm tting va do than. Thyc te cho thiy, khi djch benh bimg phat va lay lan nhanh tten dien rdng, ndng hp da tien hanh dieu trj theo kinh nghiem ciing nhu hpc hdi tir ba con, ban be. Tuy nhien, chi dya vao yeu td kinh nghiem la chua dii dl ling phd vdi nii ro djch benh ngay cang xuat hien phiic tap. Cac ndng hd d tinh Sdc Trang cflng I-Iinh 1. Riii ro san xuat ciia nong ho
165,00 3 S6c TrSng
I Bac Lieu
52,00
Hinh 2. Riii ro thi trvdng ciia nong ho
RR gid bin RR nhu cau thj trucrng
Ihay d6i RR gia cong lao dgng
13njl
a Soc TrSng I Bac Lieu
91,38
Hinh 3. Riii ro tai chinh ciia nong ho
LS \^> M^n l ^
niieu von s i n xuat •
i Soc TrSng I Bac Lieu
Nguon: So lieu dieu tra ciia tdc gid, 2013
4NG 7.2016-SO 170 AP CHi KHOA HOC & DAO TAO NGAN HAN 31
Chfnh sach S thj truong Tai chfnh - Ten te
chju tac ddng ciia dich benh khdng kem, cd din 79% ndng hd chiu anh hudng ciia djch benh, d mdi viing se cd nhung djch benh khac nhau do thdi tiet, khi hau va ngudn nudc, cac benh chu ylu d tinh Sdc Trang la diu vang, dd than va tdm bj sdc nhiet, dac biet d vu diu nam 2013 (giila thang 3 din giaa thang 8) da xuit hien benh hoai tii gan tuy tren tdm. Ddi vdi riii ro thdi tilt, cd din 97,47% ndng hd d tinh Bac Lieu va 86% ndng hp d tinh Sdc Trang gap nii ro nay. Nhiing can mua trai miia hay nang ndng keo dai da lam gian doan qua trinh phat trien cila con tdm, gay thiet hai nang nl nhit d giai doan tdm nudi tii 20 ngay todi din 3,5 thang. Sy thay ddi thit thudng cua thdi tiet lam cho tdm khdng thi thich img dugc, gay chit hang loat do bj sdc nhiet va sinh ra nhilu loai dich benh khac chua cd thudc dilu tri. Cac ndng hp chpn giai phap danh thudc bao ve tdm trudc sy thay ddi thit thudng ciia thdi tilt, nhung hieu qua cdn phy thudc vao siic sing ciia tdm. Trong nhdm rili ro san xuit, ngudn nudc d nhilm la rui ro thudng gap nhit cua ndng hd (93,97% ndng hp d tinh Bac Lieu va 52% ndng hd d tinh Sdc Trang).
Ngudn nudc anh hudng tryc tilp din qua ttinh sinh trudng va phat ttiln ciia
tdm, chinh vi thi rui ro nay anh hudng ldn din hieu qua san xuit ciia ndng hd. Rui ro con gidng cung kha phd bien so vdi cac nii ro khac (60,34% d tinh Bac Lieu va 65% d tinh Sdc Trang), do phin ldn cac ndng hd mua tdm gidng tai cac trai gidng ty phat, khdng qua kilm djnh chat che nen ty le hao hut tdm gilng van cdn kha cao.
Rili ro thi tru&ng: Trong nhdm nii ro thj tnrdng, gia thiic an tang va gia thudc, hda chit tang la hai nii ro thudng gap nhit ciia ndng hp. Theo sd lieu khao sat, cd 91,38% ndng hd d tinh Bac Lieu va 94% d tinh Sdc Trang chju tac ddng ciia gia thirc an tang, trong khi gia thulc, hda chit tang thi cd 87,07%
ndng hp d tinh Bac Lieu va 86% ndng hd d tinh Sdc
Hinh 4. Nhu cdu tham gia bao hi€in gia
• C6 nhu clu QKhengnhucan
D^c Lieu Soc Trang
Hinh S. Nhu cau tham gia bao hiim san lu-mig
DCojibucau
Ngudn: Sd lieu dieu tra ciia tdc gid, 2013
Trang phai ddi mat. Vi thiic an va thudc, hda chit la cac ylu td diu vao khdng thi thay thi, cd y nghia quyet djnh din nang suit tdm ciia ndng hd. Cac nha cung cap thiic an cung la nai tam iing ngudn vdn tai san xuat cho ndng hd thdng qua hinh thiic tin dung thuang mai, cac ndng hd nudi tdm sii hoan toan thu ddng va chap nhan nii ro tang gia ban. Gia ban tdm sii tai ao chenh lech vdi gia thj tiirdng va tiudng hgp dugc miia mat gia la nii ro phd biln ma ndng hp phai ddi mat (83,62% ndng hd d tinh Bac Lieu va 79% ndng hd d tinh Sdc Trang). Tren thyc tl, phim cap san phim (loai tdm: loai 1- 20 con/kg, loai 2- 30 con/kg, loai 3- 40 con/kg) la ylu td quan ttpng quylt djnh gia ban, tuy nhien do quy md nhd va san lugng AP CHi KHOA HOC & DAO T/kO NGAN HAN (fl'i7n_nj*pjc7')nu
Chfnh sach Sthj truong Tai chfnh - Ten te
thu hoach it nen gia ban san pham cho thuang lai chenh lech dang ke vdi gia thi trudng. Do tdm sii cd tinh nhay cam cao vdi dich benh nen khi den liic thu hoach ndng hp ludn mudn nhanh chdng ban ngay de giam that thoat. Hoat ddng nay lam tang them tinh hi dgng ciia ndng hg d khau tieu thy tdm.
Ndng hd cd nhieu sy lya chpn nai cung cap con gidng nen gia con gidng ttong nhiing nam gan day kha dn djnh, miic dp xay ra nii ro ve gia con gidng tang khdng qua cao, d Bac Lieu la 35,34% ndng hd va Sdc Trang la 54% ndng hp gap riii ro nay. Ndng hd cung cho biet se tim ngudn cung khac hoac se giam mat dp san xuat ttong trudng hgp riii ro gia con gidng tang. Xet den rui ro gia lao ddng tang, do dac diem ciia md hinh nudi tdm sii phai dau to nhieu thdi gian va cdng siic, nen nhiing ndng hd cd dien tich canh tac toong ddi ldn phai thue them lao ddng, vi vay xay ra nii ro ve gia cdng lao ddng tang la dieu khdng ttanh khdi. Theo khao sat thi d tinh Sdc Trang cd den 68% ndng hd chiu riii ro nay, rieng d tinh Bac Lieu chi cd 2,59% ndng hd gap phai. Sd dl cd su khac biet ve nii ro gia lao ddng tang giiia 2 dja ban la do dac diem ndng hd d tinh Bac Lieu chi chuyen nudi tdm, khdng canh tac hinh thiic ndng nghiep khac nen viec thue lao ddng rat de dang, gia cdng lao ddng ciing toang ddi dn dinh. Cung theo ket qua khao sat, ndng hd khdng phai ddi mat nhieu vdi rui ro thay ddi nhu cau thi trudng vi tdm sii van la mat hang thuy san dugc ngudi tieu dimg ttong va ngoai nudc ua chudng. Ndng hd cung khdng chju nii ro ldn to gia thue dat vi da cd hgp ddng hoan chinh va da sd dat canh tac la thudc sd hiiu cua ndng hg.
Rili ro tdi chinh: Thieu vdn san xuat la riii ro tai chinh chil yeu ma phan ldn ndng hg nudi tdm sii thudng gap nhat (75,86% ndng hd d tinh Bac Lieu va 80% ndng hd d tinh Sdc Trang). Day la tinh ttang chung cua ndng dan d khu vyc DBSCL, khdng chi rieng ndng hd nudi tdm sii. Chinh vi the, de cd ngudn vdn dau to san xuat, cac ndng hd nudi tdm da vay vdn tii cac td chirc tin dung chinh thiic, vay to nhan hoac mugn ngudi than hay ban be de tai diu to hoac md rdng qui md canh tac. Viec chgn ngudn vay to nhan va chap nhan tin dung thuang mai lam cho ndng hd chiu nii ro lai suat tang cao. Theo sd lieu khao sat, rui ro lai suat vay vdn tang toang ddi
thip, cd 15,52%) ndng hd d tinh Bac Lieu va 10%
ndng hd d tinh Sdc Trang gap phai nii ro nay, ttong khi nii ro mua chju thi cd 3,45% ndng hp d tinh Bac Lieu va 3% ndng hd d tinh Sdc Trang phai ddi mat.
3.4. Nhu cdu tham gia bdo hiim nong nghiep cua ndng hp nudi torn su
Nhu cdu tham gia bdo hiem gid: Dya vao ket qua khao sat cho thay, ty le ndng hp cd nhu cau tham gia bao hiem gia tdm sii la kha cao (52,59% ddi vdi ndng hp d tinh Bac Lieu, 47% ddi vdi ndng hd d tinh Sdc Trang). Cd nhieu nguyen nhan dan den nhu cau tham gia bao hiem gia toang ddi cao, cd the ke den nhu: Diep khiic dugc mua mat gia van ludn dien ra, rui ro thi trudng ludn dien bien phiic tap, ndng hd mong mudn gia ban tdm dn dinh de yen tam canh tac. C) khia canh ngugc lai, nhieu ndng hd van cdn lo ngai nen khdng ddng y tham gia bao hiem gia. Mdt teong nhutig rao can quan ttpng de ndng hd khdng tham gia bao hiem gia la chua hieu rd ve bao hiem gia tdm sii (43,64% ndng hd d Bac Lieu, 20,75% ndng hp d Sdc Trang). Ben canh dd, lo ngai cac thu tuc tham gia, bdi thudng se phiic tap, mat thdi gian ciing dugc nhieu ndng hd ddng tinh (43,4% ndng hd d Sdc Trang, 9,09% ndng hd d Bac Lieu). Song song dd, do thdi tiet thay ddi that thudng, phat sinh nhieu djch benh nen ly do khd nudi tdm dat dugc loai 30 con/kg cilng la mdt ttong nhiing nguyen nhan ndng hd khdng tham gia bao hiem gia. Mat khac, mdt sd ndng hd cd dien tich canh tac it nen khdng cd nhu cau tham gia.
Nhu cdu tham gia bdo hiem sdn lucmg: Theo kit qua khao sat cho thay, ty le ndng hd cd nhu cau tham gia bao hiem san lugng tdm sii kha cao (57%>
ndng hd d tmh Sdc Trang, 40,52% ndng hd d tinh Bac Lieu). Nguyen nhan ndng hd cd nhu ciu tham gia la vi rui ro ndng nghiep ngay cang xuit hien nhieu, dac biet la cac yeu td khdng kiem soat dugc nhu thien tai va dich benh. Ddi vdi nhdm ndng hd khdng tham gia bao hiem san lugng (59,48%) ndng hd d tinh Bac Lieu, 43% ndng hd d tinh Sdc Trang), nguyen nhan chu yeu anh hudng din nhu cau khdng tham gia bao hiem san lugng tdm sii la do thil tuc bdi thudng phiic tap (56,52% ndng hd d tinh Bac Lieu, 48,84%) ndng hd d tmh Sdc Trang).
Cac nguyen nhan tiep theo ciing kha quan tepng la
17.2016-SO 170 AP CHi KHOA HOC & DAO TAO NGAN HAN 3 3
Chfnh sach Sthi truong Tai chfnh - Ten te
khdng tin todng vao cdng ty bao hilm va chua hieu rd vl bao hilm san lugng. Tren thyc te, rat nhieu ndng hd da tham gia bao hilm san lugng d vu tiudc thi vu sau khdng cd nhu ciu tham gia vi hp cho rang thil tiic bdi thudng qua phiic tap lam cho ndng hd mit rit nhilu thdi gian va chi phi di lai. Ben canh do, mdt sd ndng hd cdn gap phai trudng hgp can bd bao hilm tic teach, khdng lam trdn trach nhiem nen khdng nhan dugc tiln bdi thudng, til' dd din den viec cac ndng hd khdng cdn long tin vdi cdng ty bao hilm. Mdt nguyen nhan khac cung khdng kem phin quan trpng la dien tich canh tac it nen ndng hd khdng cd nhu cau tham gia.
3.5. Cdc nhdn tS dnh hudng den nhu cdu tham gia bdo hiem
Dya vao kit qua phan tich hdi qui logit cho thay, md hinh dugc thilt lap phii hgp vdi cac kiem djnh dugc dam bao nhu sau; (1) Kiem djnh gia thuyet vl dp phil hgp tdng quat cd muc y nghTa quan sat Sig.=
0,00 nhd han rit nhieu so vdi mirc y nghia 5%; (2) Gia tej Log Likelihood = -131,30 the hien miic dp phil hgp ciia md hinh. Ben canh dd, gia trj kiem djnh Con deu< 0,8 nen khdng xay ra hien topng da cdng tayen ttong md hinh.
Dya vao ket qua phan tich d Bang 4 cho thay, trong 8 bien dua vao rad hinh thi cd 5 bien cd y nghTa thdng ke, trong dd cd 4 bien toang quan thuan vdi nhu cau tham gia bao hiem cua ndng hd nudi tdm sii, dd la TRINHDO, DIENTICH, RUIRONN va MDHIEUBIET va 1 bien toang quan nghjch vdi nhu cau tham gia bao hiem ndng nghiep cua ndng hp la NANGSUAT. Sy tac dpng cua tiing biln dugc giai thich nhu sau: Bien HOCVAN cd y nghia thdng ke d mirc 10% va toang quan thuan vdi nhu ciu tham gia bao hiem cua ndng hd nudi tdm sii. Dilu nay cho thiy, khi trinh dp hpc vin ciia chii hd cang cao thi nhu cau tham gia bao hilm san lupng cang tang. Thyc tl cho thiy, neu chii hd cd trinh dp hpc van cao thi nhan thirc, sy hilu bilt vl djch vu bao hilm ndng nghiep cflng nhu lgi ich cua djch vu nay cang nhilu, to dd ndng hd se chii ddng tham gia bao hilm ndng nghiep de phdng ngira nii ro. Tuong ty, biln DIENTICH cd y nghTa thdng ke d miic 5% va toang quan thuan vdi nhu ciu tham gia bao hilm ndng nghiep cua hd nudi tdm sii. Hay ndi each khac.
Bang 4. Kit qua mo hinh nhu cSu bao hiem torn su ciia nong ho
„ He s6 u-wc lu'O'ng Mii'c y nghia Ten bien
Hang sd TRINHDO KINHNGHIEM DIENTICH NANGSUAT RUIRONN THAMGIAHTX TONGCHIPHI MDHIEUBIET LR chi2(8) ProJ) > chj2 Log likelihood
-3,812 0,089 0,031 0,034 -3,082 0,267 -0,609 0,023 0,285
(Sig.) 0,000 0,070 0,219 0,048 0,051 0,006 0,176 0,151 0,035 26,97 0,00 -131,30
Nguon: So lieu dieu tra cua tdc gid, 2013 nlu dien tich tha nudi tdm su cang nhieu, chi phi diu to cang cao thi nhu cau tham gia bao hiem cua ndng hd se cang tang. Thyc tl, nhimg hp nudi tdm sii vdi qui md ldn va chi phi dau to cao deu nhan thiic dugc hg phai ddi mat vdi nhu:ng nii ro cao, vi the viec tham gia bao hiem ndng nghiep la mpt giai phap uu tien ciia ndng hd. Bien RUIRONN cd y nghTa thdng ke d miic 1 % va toang quan thuan vdi nhu cau tham gia bao hiem ndng nghiep cua ndng hd. Nhu vay, neu hd nudi tdm sii cang gap nhieu rui ro ttong qua ttinh san xuat thi nhu cau tham gia bao hiem cua ndng hd cang cao. Dieu nay hoan toan phii hgp vdi thyc tl vi khi phai ddi mat vdi nhieu nii ro thi ndng hd se chu dpng tim giai phap de phdng ngira riii ro vi the tham gia bao hiem ndng nghiep dupc xem la giai phap tdt chp hd nuoi tdm su. Biln MDHIEUBIET cd y nghTa thing ke d miic 5% va toong quan thuan vdi nhu ciu tham gia bao hiem ndng nghiep cua hd nudi tdm su. Khi mirc dp hieu biet cua ndng hd ddi vdi cac gdi bao hiem ndng nghiep cang nhieu, cang rd thdng tin thi nhan thiic cua ndng hd ve su phiic tap ciia hd sa thil tuc se khdng cdn niia, ddng thdi ndng hd se nhan ra viec tham gia bao hilm ndng nghiep se dam bao dupc thanh qua diu to ciia minh. Ben canh cac yeu td tac ddng tich cyc din nhu ciu tham gia bao hiem ndng nghiep ciia ndng hd nudi tdm sii thi bien NANGSUAT tac dpng nghjch chieu vdi nhu cau tham gia bao hiem ndng nghiep cua ndng hp. Thyc te cho thay, nhung ndng hd dat dugc nang suit cao
34 4P CHi KHOA HOC & DAO UO NGAN HAN S0170-Itl4Nr,7!
Chfnh sach &thi tnuong Tai chfnh - Ten t e
thudng mang tam ly lac quan ve nang lyc san xuat, ty tin vdi ky thuat canh tac va kiem soat djch benh, hp khdng ludng trudc nhflng nii ro ndng nghiep se den bat cii liic nao. Chinh vi the, neu ndng hd dat dugc miic nang suat tdm sii cang cao thi nhu cau tham gia bao hiem ndng nghiep se cang giam.
4. Ket luan
Nhin chung, nhu cau tham gia bao hiem ndng nghiep cua ndng hd nudi tdm sii la kha cao. Tuy nhien, chuang trinh bao hiem ndng nghiep van cdn nhiing han che nhat djnh dan den nhieu ndng hd khdng cd nhu cau tham gia. Nghien ciiu da cho thay, 4 yeu td anh hudng tich cyc den nhu cau tham gia bao hiem ndng nghiep cua ndng hd nudi tdm su d DBSCL la trinh dp hpc van, dien tich san xuat, nii ro ndng nghiep, miic dp hieu biet ve bao hiem.
Trong khi ylu td nang suat tac ddng tieu cyc den nhu ciu tham gia bao hilm ndng nghiep ciia ndng hd nudi tdm sii. Nghien cira cdn chi ra yeu td nii ro ndng nghiep anh hudng manh nhat den nhu cau tham gia bao hilm ndng nghiep cua ndng hd nudi tdm su. •
tiep theo trang 26
cung la mdt hieu iing cd tac ddng den nha dau to the hien d khdi lugng giao djch cao han trudc ngay chi tra cd tiic. Day cung la mdt phat hien thu vj bdi vi thdng thudng, viec chi tra cd tiic thudng dugc coi la khdng anh hudng den gia trj cdng ty vi theo ly thuylt thi trudng hieu qua thi tit ca mgi thdng tin deu dugc bao ham trong gia va khdi lugng d ngay cdng bd thdng tin. •
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
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3. Makki, S.S., and A. Somwaru (2001), "Farmers 'Participation in Crop Insurance Markets: Creating the Right Incentives ". Ameri- can Joumal of Agricultural Economics, 83: 662-667.
4. Nja\ro. M, Par. V, Drazenka Plesko (2007). "Livestock insurance as a risk management tool on dairy farms ". Faculty of Agricul- ture University of Zagreb, Farm Management Department, Svetosimunska c. 25, 10000 Zagreb.
5. Nguyen Van Song vd Chu Thi Thdo (2011). "Xdc dinh nhu cdu bdo hiem trong chdn nudi Ion thit cua cdc ho ndng ho huyen Vdn Ldm, tinh Himg Yen ". Tgp chi Ndng nghiep vdphdt trien nong thon. Sd 2 (2011), trang 53-58.
6. Nguyen Qudc Nghi (2013). "The demand for participateing in tiger prawn farming production assurance in Dong Hai district, Bac Lieu province''. Vietftsh International Vol 10, Issue 02 (52), pp. 83-85.
7. Anthony Patt, Pablo Suarez, Ulhch Hess (2010), "How do small-holder farmers understand insurance, and how much they want it? Intemational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria: Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, The Netherlands: World Food Programme, Rome, Italy.
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SUMMARY
D e m a n d for agricultural i n s u r a n c e of p r a w n f a r m i n g household in M e k o n g Delta
This study was conducted to determine factors that affect the demand for agricultural insurance of prawn farming household in Mekong Delta. Research data was collected by interviewing directly 216 prawn fanning households in Bac Lieu and Soc Trang province. Binary LogU regression was in this study, research result showed that factors affecting the demand for agricultural insurance are education, scale of farming area, yield, agricultural risks, and level of understanding insurance. In particular, the agricultural risks have strongest impact on demand for agricultural insurance of prawn farming household in Mekong Delta.
Keywords: farmers, agricultural insurance, prawn, Mekong Delta
THONG TIN TAC GIA Nguyen Q u o c Nghi, Tien sT Don vi cong tdc: Dai hoc Can T h a
LTnh vuc nghien dm chinh: Tai chinh vi mo, chuoi gia tri nong san
Tgp chi tieu bieu dd co bdi viet ddng Idi: Joumal of Economic Development, Vietfish Intemational, Phat triln Kinh t l Kinh t l & Phat trien
Email: [email protected]
HANG 7.2016-SO 170 4P CHI KHOA HOC & DAO TAO NGAN HAN