U'ng dung ly thuyet mo' danh gia tmh hap dan du* an cong trinh ngam
Bui Cong Thanh Nguyen Kim Cu'dng
ABSTRACT
The main purpose of the paper is to identify the risk factors of underground construction projects in ^^etnam and to create algorithms for evaluating them by applying fuzzy inference model. First, the risks related to the underground construction project are identified and arranged in order of rank by cause and effect relationships.
Based on the opinion of experts having deep understanding of risk management in the underground, or the historical data of some real structures in the country or overseas, the data necessary for flizzy inference system will be collected. This data system, which is programmed using the Matlab language, will allow the users to type in the evaluation of fuzzy input variables. The results are the quantitative values of underground construction risks and defiizzification graph.
PGS. TS Biii C6ng Thanh, Truong Dai hoc bach khoa - DHQG TPHCM KS Nguyin Kim Ciroiig Truang Dgi hoc xay dung mien Trung, hpc vien cao hoc
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3. Nhan d a n g y l u t o rui ro
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n h u s a u ( b a n g I ) ^ 4 . Cau true c i p b i c d c y f u ttf i t t l
(hinh 2) ^ C i u true tren duoe x i y d i ^ n h d v i i ^ B
y kidn c i c chuydn gia, chdng dtfpc sip xep theo trinh t u phu h o p vdi t i l n trinh s u y ^ md. Moi m p t b i l n sd l i m d t t i p m d d u o c ^ vao no e i c muc d p phu thupc, d l chl M i l rm phu thudc cua b i l n do trong t i p md. C l c ' b i ^ sd d i u g i n v i o nd S mUe do lidn t h u o c ' ^ sau: R i t t h i p : VL, Thap- L, Trung btnh: M.JCao:
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5. Hd t h o n g 5uy l u i n m d d e d i n h g i l t i n h h i p d i n d i r i n (hinh 3)
Oe danh gta tinh hap d i n d u i n (PA),xem hai bien so xle suit tre t i l n d p d t i I n (PD) v l mUc do tac dong d i n dif I n (PI) la hai b i l n ^ dau v i o bien h i p d i n d u i n (PA) la bien ^^^^
Bude d i u tien m d hoa c i c b i l n s d d a u ^ duoc d^c trUng b i n g c i c h i m lidn thugc M
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c i c k i t q u i m d d i u ra. Budc cu6i cdng diitig p h u a n g p h i p khiJr m d (hay d i i n g p h U t ^
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Rat t h i p (VL) Thap(L) Trung blnh(M) Cao (H) Rat cao (H)
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p h i p trung binh trpng s6), d l tfnh dupc g i l trj r o c C i a k l t q u l d i u ra
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6. V i l t t h u l t t o l n chUimg trinh Bude 1; Xay dUng ham chuong trinh eon eho c i c h i m lien thupc
Budc 2: Mdt ngUdI dimg cho d l n h g i l v l n h i p vao cac gta tri m d cila cac b i l n sd dau vao
BUdc 3: Lap d c menh d l logic m d t h i hien mdl tuong t i e glti'a d e b i l n sd
Budc 4: Khil m d (phUong p h i p trung binh trong sd)
Bude 5: In ket q u i v l dd tht eCia b i l n d i u ra.
Qng dung chupng trinh, ngUdi nghien euU danh g i l tinh h i p dan d u i n dUdng Ham Hai V i n .
C P sd dCr lieu CO tham khao trong tai lieu [4], dau tidn n h l n set dmh tinh c i c yeu t d ri!ti ro, sau do e h u y i n hoa thanh c i c g i l tri m d nhap v i o b i n g 4.
B l n g 4 . NgUdl dimg danh g i l v l n h i p v i o d c gia tri mdcOa c i c b i l n d i u vao STT
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C A C Y ^ U T d R U I R O Kmh te tai ehinh
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Do c i c ben lien quan khac
PD 8 10 75 62 73 18 11 12 9 22 14 55 85 27 30 65
PI 12 7 80 71 58 23 15 36 29 45 36 72 52 34 40 31
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Hmh 3. Ket qua cua miic do tac dong 6ki d U l n G i l t n mirc do tat dong d^n d i / a n Pl=26,8628%
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7. Kdt l u i n
Chupng trInh n i y giup cho ngudl d u n g khdng chl d i n h g i l djnh ^ 9 m i eon cd t h i d i n h g i l d j n h lupng tinh H i p D i n Dp An C6ng Trinh N g H mdt d c h d l d i n g h o n .
Vi^c d i n h g i l rui ro Cong trinh N g i m v6 cung phulC t^pi '^i^^^isl th>eu thong tin h o | e t h d n g tin khdng chinh x l e . cung c6 r i t n h i l u phap d l n h g i i rui ro trong trudng h p p n i y n h u p h u o n g p h i p ra q i da tidu chi, p h u o n g phap suy l u i n theo c i u true d p b$c mil. tuy nhUng phUPng phap n i y ddi hoi c h i t lupng t h d n g tin cao, s^ lii^fngl sit du Idn.
Bat v i l t n i y Ung di^ng logic m d , m<>t p h i n ly t h u y l t m d d l x i y t h u | t t o i n cOa chuong t n n h danh g i l tinh H i p dSn d u i n , giilp chfl c i n n h i c lua ehon d i u tu, cung n h u c6 su chu trong quan t i m thf den cae y l u to nit ro.
T A I L I | U THAM KHAO ^ 1 Shih-Tong Lu, Cheng-Wei Im, Hiin-Lung Liu,' Key Risk Factors Assessment for Metra^Hi^
Undeiground Pioject', piofi'pdtngs o( the l l t i i Joint ConfereiKe on Infortnatton SdeiKes,Publid^
by Atlantis Pr«s,2Das.
2 Gi^orge Bo|adiiev, Mana Bojadiiev ,'Fuzzy Logic for Business, Finance and Management", EtltliM' 2lk World Scieniifit Publishing Co, Pie. Ltd Singapore,2007.
3 Nguyen Nhu Phong, Ty thuyet mfl va ling dung", Nha xual bin khoa hoc ky thuat, 2007 J£
4 Tong cong ty xay dung sfi 6."Baocio cong nghe tht cong Ham tai cong trinh Ham Hit Van',n5mll(K-