CHfNH TR! - AN NINH CHAU AU
^KHUNG H O A N G UKRRINn -
CUOC TRnNH CHRP QUVCN LlTC CUR MV - €U VR NGR
Nguyen Anh Circrng Nguyen Van Trung**
Tom tat: Khung hodng a Ukraina tic ndm 2013 din nay dang dugc coi Id thdm hog chinh tri tdi ti nhdt a chdu Au ki tic sau Chiin tranh Lgnh. Bdi viit phdn tich nhirng nguyen nhdn bin trong cda cugc khiing hodng ndy bao gdm viec lua chon mo hinh phdt triin ddt nudc vd xung dot vdn hod - bdn sdc giica cdc viing miin d Ukraina vd su cgnh tranh dnh hudng giira cdc cudng qudc ldn, nhu Nga, My vd Lien minh Chdu Au vai Ukraina. Bdi viit cUng chi ra nhirng hi qud md cudc khung hodng chinh tri ncty gdy ra ddi vdi an ninh d chdu Au vd cho rdng, tinh hinh a Ukraina khi cd su tham gia cua nhiiu bin Id thuc su phirc tgp vd se kho CO thi dugc gidi quyit dugc mdt sdm mgt chiiu.
Tir khoa: khung hodng chinh tri, tranh gidnh quyin luc, Ukraina, Nga, My, Liin minh ChduAu
Mdt blic tudng bang bd tdng ddi 2.000km dang dugc Ukraina dung len dpc bidn gidi ciia hp, bao gdm cac hao chdng xe tang, day thep gai, ham qudn su va boongke, vdi ly do la dd chdng lai cdc cudc tan cdng tii phia Nga. Va chinh quyen Ukraina cdn du tinh se tidp tuc xay thdm nhung biic tudng trdn biln. Biic tudng bidn gioi ndy khdng chi don thuin ngan each Ukraina vd Nga sau cudc khiing hoang chinh tri keo ddi tu cudi
nam 2013 ddn nay, md nd con ggi nhd den
"blic tudng Berlin" chia cat nudc Diic ttong Chien ttanh Lanh'.
O cap dp khu vuc, khi "biic tudng Ukraina" dugc dung ldn se tao nen ranh gidi phdn chia giiia mpt ben la nudc Nga dang ttdn da ttdi day, mpt bdn la cdc nudc chau Au dugc lien ket vdi nhau bdi Lien minh Chau Au (EU) vd su chdng lung cua My cung khoi Hiep udc Bac Dai Tay Duong
TS, Trudng DHKHXH&NV, Dai hoc Quoc gia Ha N^i
** Tnrdng BHKHXH&NV, D^i hpc Quoc gia Ha Noi
' Blic tuong Berlin dirpc bat dau dung vho nSm 1961, nci chia cat nu6c Dure liic do th^nh hai thuc thi rieng bilt va cung la noi dinh diu su khac biet v i y thiic hf giiia khoi tu ban va xS hoi chu nghTa, d l bi nguoi din Due pha b6 v^o thang 11/1989.
12 NGHIEN CCrU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°4 (187).2016
(NATO). M^c du diu la d chdu Au, nhung Ddng Diic va Tay Diic la mot khdi thdng nhit vl chiing tdc, van hoa - nhung thupc tinh khd phai md hon y thiic he, cdn nudc Nga vd chau Au lai tdn tai nhimg khdc biet nhdt dinh vd vdn hoa. Khac biet nay dugc Samuel P. Huntington - mpt ngudi theo quan diem chii nghia hien thuc mdi - ndi tidng vdi ly thuyit vl "sir dung do giiia cdc ndn van minh"^, gpi la 2 nen van minh: van minh phuang Tdy do chau Au ldm dai didn va van minh Slav Ddng Chinh gido do nudc Nga diing dau.
CJ cap dp nhd hon, "biic tudng Ukraina"
thi hien mdt tinh thd bd tdc cua ca chinh quydn Ukraina va cac cudng qudc ben ngodi, d mdt chimg muc nhdt dinh bao gom ca cac tl chiic qudc td ttong vide giai quydt cudc khiing hodng Ukraina.
1. Khung hoang Ulu-aina tir ben trong
Ukraina la mpt quoc gia bi kep giQa nhidu cudng qudc the gidi duang dai la Nga d phia Dong vd EU d phia Tay (bao gdm cac nudc diing dau chdu Au nhu Diic, Phap)^.
Lich su Ukraina cd nhilu thang ttim, biln ddi, bi dan xen bdi cdc cupc sdp nhap vd H khai ttong qua khii. Tir nam 1922-1991, Ukraina la mpt phin cua Lien bang Xd viit.
^ Huntington, Samuel P. (2005), Sw- va cham cua cdc nin vdn minh. H i Noi, Nxb Lao dong.
^ Theo quan di6m chinh tri hpc hiSn dai, d5c biet 1^
ciia cic nha chii nghia tv do/l-jf tuong, to chuc qu6c tk nhu EU cung dugc xem la m^t chu thg trong quan he qu6c te, c6 vai tr6 nbu mot qu6c gia.
Sau khi Lidn Xd sup dd (1991), Ukraina da ttd thanh mgt qudc gia ddc Idp va tham gia kiln tao Cdng ddng Cac qudc gia ddc 1 (thudng dugc bidt den vdi tdn viit tdt tidi^
Nga la SNG) bao gdm cac nudc cdng hok thudc Lien Xd cii.
Vdi vi tri dia ly nam tai khu vuc giao thoa cua hai nen van minh ldn ciia thi gidi 1E van minh phuong Tay va van minh Chinh thdng giao, cung vdi cdc di san tu thdi Xfl viet de lai, "chinh thi Ukraina bi phdn hoa rdt sdu sdc theo tieng khu vuc, tdn gido, ddn tdc vd tang lap giai cdp"* Vl can bdn, Ukraina bi chia thdnh hai vung rieng bi6t:
mien Ddng - Nam chiu dnh hudng tir phfa Nga, mien Tay va Trung chiu anh hudng cua phuang Tay.
Thu nhdt, khdc biet vi vi^c lua chon mo hinh phdt triin ddt nudc giira cdc viing mien.
Nhiing chinh sach kinh tl - xa hpi tir thdi Lien Xd va su sup do ciia nd dd di lai nhung di chiing hdt siic ndng nl ddi vdi Ukraina (ciing nhu cac qudc gia SNG khdc). Xet trin nhieu khia canh, Ukraina la mpt nudc ldn a khu vuc Ddng Au. Trong khdi SNG, Ukraina cd nen kinh td ldn thii hai (sau Nga), voi GDP nam 2013 dat 175 ti USD, GDP binh quan dau ngudi d miic 3,8 nghin ddla My.
Sau khi Lidn Xd tan ra, mpt sd quoc gia Ddng Au da chuyin ddi manh me the che
* Krieger, Joel (2009), Todn canh nin chinh tri the giai, m N§i, Nxb Lao Dpng, tr. 250.
* Intemational Monetary Fund (2014), fVorld Economic Outlook Database, October 2013, (http://wvvw.imf.org/exteniai/pubs/fVweo/2013/02/we odata/weorept.aspx?), truy cap th4ng 2 nSm 2016.
^KhuMQ. koang. (Uhfoina.... 13
kinh te va chinh tri theo hudng tu do, gia.
nhelp cdc thidt che ldn nhu EU vd ttd thanh nhung qudc gia cd nen kinh td phat ttiln, cdc dieu kien cdng bang va an sinh xa hpi ludn d miic hang dau thd gidi. Dilu nay tac ddng sau sic din y thiic ciia ngudi dan Ukraina, nhat ia ngudi dan d khu vuc miln Trung va mien Tay, vdn thudng xuydn tilp xiic vdi chau Au. Tuy nhidn, s\i phdn hod vl mat kinh te giiia cac vung mien d Ukraina rdt rd ret: mien Ddng va mien Nam gan nudc Nga phdt trien hon so vdi mien Tay gidp phuang Tay do nhan dugc su hdu thuan manh me ve kinh tl tir chinh phu Nga^. Vi vdy, lira chpn ciia ngudi dan Ukraina la rat khdc nhau.
Ngudi ddn d midn Tdy va midn Trung Ukraina chiu anh hudng cua md hinh kinh td va chinh tri phucmg Tdy, do dd ung hp tang cudng lidn kit vdi EU vd My. Ngudi dan d midn Ddng va midn Nam, nhdt la d ban dao Crum lai mudn that chdt quan he vdi Nga, vdn dugc gay dung tir thdi Xd viet. Hon niia, mac dil cdc nudc ttong cOng ddng SNG ddu tiing thudc Lien bang Xd viet, nhung giiia hp ludn tdn tai nhidu khac bidt vd lich su, van hod, chinh tri'. NIU SO sanh vdi cdng ddng EU, khdi SNG tut h$u hon rit nhilu ca vl kinh td, chinh tri va miic dp lien kit. Bdi vay, ngudi dan Ukraina can mdt ldn gid mdi dl thay dli dit nudc cua hp. Nhiing su lua
* Luong van Ke (2014), "Khiing hoang Ukraine vi su c^nh tranh anh hudng ciia nga v(A Mj? v4 phuong TSy." The Paranoma of FIS (S6 1), Hi N^i, Khoa Qu6c tS hoc, Truimg Dai hgc KHXH&NV.
' Krieger, Joel (2009), sdd, tr.244.
chpn ddi lap nay da tao ra cac xu hudng khdc nhau d nudc n^y.
Theo mpt cugc tham dd cua Intemational Republican Institute (IRI) ndm 2014 tai Ukraina, cd tdi 59% sd ngudi dugc hdi d mien Ddng va 37% ngudi midn Nam Ukraina mudn tham gia vao Lidn minh Thud quan do Nga dSn ddu (cung vdi Belarus va Kazakhstan), ttong khi ti le ung hp vide gia nhap EU lin lugt la 20% vd 29%. Trai lai, cd tdi 90% sd ngudi d phia Tdy va 70% sd ngudi d vimg Trung tdm dugc hdi mudn gia nhdp vao EU, ttong khi dd chi cd Ian lugt 3% va 9% ung hd hgp tac chat hon vdi Nga . CJ thii dd Kiev, khu vuc Trung tam ciia Ukraina, khi Tdng thdng Ukraina than Nga Viktor Yanukovych tu chdi thod thu|in thuong mai vdi EU dt bdt tay vdi Nga nhim nhdn dugc khodn vidn ttg tu Nga, nhiing bat ding ttong ddn chiing da bi day len cao, dan tdi nhiing he qud chinh tri nhu da didn ra ttdn toan qudc gia nay.
Thu hai, mdu thudn vdn hod - vdn minh giUa cdc cong ddng ddn cu ben trong
Ukraina. Xung dot hay dyng dp van hod - vdn minh khdng phdi la van dd mdi ciia ddi sdng qudc td, song nd dugc quan tam va dugc coi la mdt ly thuyet ttong nghien ciiu quan he qudc td bdi mgt cdng trinh cd tiing vang cua Samuel P. Huntington: "The Clash of Civilizations?" (1993) dang tten tap chi Foreign Affairs^ sau do dugc viet ttong cudn
* International Republican Institute (2014), Public Opinion Survey Resident of Ukraine (March 14-26, 2014),p.\2.
14 NGHIEN CCrU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N ° 4 (1B7).201i
sach The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (xuat ban nam 1996). Samuel Huntington cho rdng: cac nen van minh radi la nhung chu thd quan ttpng dli diu vdi nhau va chi phdi nen chi'nh tri thd gidi ttong hidn t^ va tuong lai. Theo do, van hod - van minh "dugc xdc dinh bdi su hiin hiru nhiing nhdn td chung, khdch quan nhu ngdn ngir, lich su, tdn gido, phong tuc, thi chi vd cd bai nhitng ddc tinh chu thi ciia con nguai" "Vdn hod vira Id sue mgnh dodn kit, vica Id sue mgnh chia re" **
Cac cupc chien ttanh ttong lich s^ va qud trinh tdn t^ ttong Lidn bang Xd vidt khien cho Ukraina ttd nen da dang ve sdc tpc, tdn gido. Mac du d Ukraina, luc lugng ngudi Nga (Russian) chi chiem 13% so vdi 83% ngudi Ukraina (Ukrainian)^', nhung chimg do ciing tao nen su phan chia ban sac d ddt nudc nay. Sir phan chia dd khdng chi don thuan la giiia Tdy vd Trung Ukraina theo Thidn Chiia giao vdi Ddng vd Nam Ukraina theo Chinh thdng gido, ma cdn giua nhung ngudi Ukraina mang bdn sic chau Au d miln Tay vd ngudi Ukraina mang ban sdc Nga d miln Ddng va Nam Ukraina (dac bidt la nhiing ngudi Ukraina ndi tiing Nga). Chdng han, ngudi ddn d bdn dao Crum (Krym) va vung Donetsk la hai khu vyc tuyen bd mang ban sac Nga, vi v^y hai khu vuc nay cd xu
' Vi|n Th6ng tin Khoa hoc Xa h^i (2001), Trdt tu thi giai sau Chiin tranh Lanh: Phdn tich vd du bdo (tap l),mN9i,tr.63.
'" Huntington, Samuel P (2005), sdd, tr. 14.
Intemational Republican Institute (2014) sdd p.131.
hudng li khai vl phia Nga. Chinh quyln Nga cua Tong thdng Putin ciing da cdn cii vao ban sic ndy dd quyet dinh dua qudn dpi Nga cf°
thi?p vdo Ukraina nhdm bao ve ngudi Nga il sap nhap bdn dao Crum ttd thanh mdt phSn cua Nga (thang 3/2014). Thdm vao do, khy vvrc phia Tay do nam ngay sat phuong T§
nen chiu dnh hudng cua van hod phuong Tdy, vi vdy da sd ngudi dan khu vuc nay thudng cd thai dp img hp chinh quyln than phuong Tay va bai Nga. Vimg phfa Ddng va Nam Ukraina da sd di theo Chinh thdng giao cd xu hudng than Nga. Sau khi Putin len nam quydn d Nga, dng ra siic khdi phuc 1^
Chinh thdng gido vdi quan dilm nha thd ii6n quan mat thiet den nha nudc va ludn bao v^
quan didm ciia Chinh phu. Trong khi do Co ddc giao ciia phuong Tay thi ngugc lai, nha nudc va nha thd ludn dpc lap vdi nhau'^
Su khdc biet ban sac van hda giiia hai mien Ddng va Tay Ukraina la mdt "sgi c chdy c h ^ " vd khi da "bdt lura" thi n6 se khidn cho nin chinh tri Ukraina ludn cai^
thang. Day la mpt ttong nhiing nguyen nhan sau xa dnh hudng tdi cupc khung hoang Ukraina bdi nhung khac bidt vd van hoa - vdn minh thudng gdy ra nhiing xung dot dai ddng ttong ljch sii do nhu ciu "tu vS" giiia chiing. Theo S. Huntington, d cdp dp vi mfi, cdc nudc ndm dpc dudng ranh gidi giiia cac nen vdn minh canh ttanh vdi nhau de g i ^ quydn kidm soat lin nhau hoac dat dai; d cap dd VI md, cac nudc thupc ndn vdn minh khac nhau canh tranh dnh hudng ttong linh v^e '^ Luong van Ke (2014), sdd.
^XJiung kodng. (UJkraintL... 15 kinh tl va quan su, ttanh gianh quyln kilm
soat cac the chd qudc tl va cdc nudc thii ba, ddng thdi ra sure khing dinh cac gia tti ton gido va chi'nh tti cua minh'^ Nhihig khdc bi$t ndy se tilp tuc Id nhdn td chi phli cu0c khung hodng va sd quylt dinh tinh hinh dit nudc Ukraina lau ddi.
Trdn thuc te, su phdn hoa ttong ndi bp Ukraina ciing phan dnh nhihig thay ddi d Ddng Au hdu Xd viit. Nhilu nudc "Ddng Au dang trong qud trinh ngdy cdng trd nin gidng vdi Toy Au, tuy hg vdn tut xa phia sau ve kinh ti. Hg ghet cay ghet ddng khi bi ggi Id ngudi Ddng Au: Hg chi mudn dan gidn Id ngudi chdu Au, khdng han khdng kem "'''.
2. Ai tao ra khung khoang - My, EU hay Nga?
Ndn chinh tri thi gidi dugc dac trung lau dai bdi su canh ttanh cua cac cudng qu6c vd ttang thdi cua hd thing qudc tl (hod binh hay xung dot) phu thupc vdo su tuong tdc gifta chiing'^. Vl co ban, mpi vdn dd qudc te ldn diu cd anh hudng cua cdc cudng qudc mOt each true tilp ho^c gian tiep, bdi nd lien quan tdi lpi ich cua hp. Siic manh ciia quoc gia cang ldn thi pham vi lgi ich cua nd cang md rgng vd nd se cd ging bdnh trudng siic
" Vi^n Thong tin Khoa hpc Xa h^i (2001), Trgt ttr thi gi&i sau Chiin tranh Lgnh: Phdn tich vd du bdo (T^p 1). Ha N§i, t r . 7 5 .
'•* Hoc vi^n N^oai giao (2009), Bdng T^ Nam Bdc:
Nhttng dien bien chinh trong quan hi quoc ti tic 1945, Ha NOi, Nxb The gi(5i, tr. 342.
'^ Kegley, Charles W. Jr. and Shanon L. Blanton (2011), World Politics - Trend and Transformation, 2010-2011 Edtition (Thirteenth Edition), United State:
Wadsworth Cengage Learning, p. 66.
manh de bao v$ vd gia tang cac lgi ich cua ban than, nhdt la d nhimg noi gdn nd.
Cim Thii tudng Anh Winston Churchill timg ndi: "Cdi gid cua su to ldn Id trdch nhiim". Bdn chat cda khung hodng Ukraina hien nay chinh Id mdt cupc choi nudc ldn, ma d do ca Nga, My vd phuang Tdy khdng thira nhan la nhOng ke gay nen, nhung l^i di diu va cd y nghia quylt dinh ttong vi?c gidi quylt cudc khung hoang ndy. Trong do, Nga, Diic va Phdp diu cd tham vgng ddng diu chau Au, cdn M^ khdng mudn mit di anh hudng ddi vdi bit cii khu vuc ndo. Khdng ai mudn bi thua thidt so vdi ddi thu, nhit Id khi ddi thu la mpt cudng qudc nim gin bidn gidi.
Trong cudn sdch Bdn ca ldn (1997), Z.
Brzezinski da vidt rang: "Khdng co Ukraina, Nga se khdng bao gia tra thdnh siiu cudng.
Mgt khi gia dugc Ukraina, nudc Nga se tra thdnh siiu cudng. Trdt tu thi gidi mai vdi vai trd bd chu cita My se dugc hinh thdnh di chdng lgi Nga vd dua tren "cdc mdnh vd" tu sir sup do cita nudc Nga. Ddi vdi My, Ukraina Id tiin ddn cua phuang Tdy khdng de Nga phiic hdi vi the sieu cudng nhu Lien Xd trudc ddy"^^. DT nhidn, vdi vi tri dia chidn luge quan ttgng, Ukraina dd tu biln minh thanh noi canh ttanh cua cdc cudng qudc. Ndi mOt each don gian, khiing hoang Ukraina chi'nh la he qua cua "cudc dau" giia Nga vdi My va chau Au nhdm ttanh gianh
'^ D i n theo: Lfi Th6 Mau (2014), "Ucraina: V4n cir dia chinh trj My - Nga", Tap chi Tuyen gido, s6 4/2014,
http;//www.tuyengiao.vn/Home/MagazineContent?ID
=1695, truy c§p ngay thing 2 nSm 2016.
16 NGHIEN CCU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N ° 4 (187).201i
qudc gia Ddng Au nay ' Vi vay, xem xet anh hudng cua cac chu thd nay cd y nghia quan ttpng ttong vide ludn giai, du bao cudc khung hoang Ukraina; trong dd nudc Nga ddng vai ttd trung tam.
Thic nhdt, dnh hudng ciia phucmg Tdy, ma My Id ke gidt ddy. John J. Mearsheimer, mdt ngudi theo chii nghTa hidn thuc didn hinh, ttong bdi vidt "Why the Ukraina Crisis is the West's fault" trdn tap chi Foreign Affairs (2014)'* da chi trich My va phuang Tay la nguydn nhdn ciia cudc khiing. hodng chinh tti d Ukrama. Nhiing nha lanh dao cua My va chau Au da qud tu tin vao chii nghia tu do, ve siic hap ddn cua sir thinh vugng va dan chii cua phuang Tay se ldi keo dugc 'Ukraina vd phia hp, nhu dd timg xay d cupc
Cach mang Cam ndm 2004.
Anh hudng cua M^ vd phuong Tdy trdn toan thi gidi dang vdp phdi nhimg chi ttich tir phia cdc cudng quoc mdi nii, nhung chu thd dang mudn thay ddi ttat tu thi gidi cho phii hgp vdi lgi ich ban thdn, nhu Trung Qudc, Nga, An Dp, Brazil... Nudc Nga cd dli CO sd dd tin rang viec phuang Tay, dac bidt la NATO, banh trudng tdi san sau ciia Nga va thilt lap he thing ten liia d chdu Au la nhdm tieu diet hp, nhu da ldm vdi Lien
Vu van Dat (2014), "Nhhi lai nhung nguyen nhan cu§c khung hoang Ukraine hi^n nay", Bdo Ngh4 An, hnp://baonghean.vn/quoc-te/201409/nhin-iai-nhung- nguyen-nhan-cuoc-khung-hoang-ukraine-hien-nay- 532265/, truy cap thdng 3 nSm 2016.
'* Mearsheimer, John J. (2014), "Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's fault." Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia- ftu/2014-08-18/why-ukraine-crisis-west-s-fauIt truy c§p thing 2 nam 2016.
Xd. Song, cimg cd nhiing khac biet ttong each xir ly khiing hoang Ukraina giiia My vi EU mac du cung chung muc dIch id ldi keo Ukraina va cac nudc SNG thoat khdi quj dao cda Nga.
Ddi vdi EU, su ttSi ddy cua nudc Nga trong nhiing ndm vira qua dugc xem la mpt moi de doa true tidp ddi vdi an ninh va thinh vugng cua chau Au. Nudc Nga cd nhi^
khac biet so vdi EU vd chinh tii vd van hoa, vi vdy, each tdt nhat la ddy lui mdi de do£i do | cdng xa cang tdt. Didu ma nhieu cudng qu6c diing ddu EU lo n g ^ la vide Nga cd thi tra thdnh cudng qudc kidm soat luc dia A - An ndu khdng k i l m c h l Nga. Do dd, EU da til chdi su tham gia cua Nga vao bit ki t l chik nao ciia chau Au, ngoai trir vide duy tri cac hgp tac kinh td.
DT nhien, cdng vide nay khong thd thiSu My, mpt nhan td gidp EU cd thd can b§ng siic manh vdi Nga vd bdo ve EU trudc cac cudc tin cdng. Tren thuc td, khdng co bat ki mdt qudc gia chau Au ndo mong muon bj keo vao mdt cudc chiln lau dai vdi Nga, nhat la trong bdi canh ndn kinh t l chau Au vin chua the phuc hdi sau cupc suy thoai kinh te - tdi chinh toan cau, khimg hoang ng cong va hidn nay lai tidp tuc gdp khd khan vi cu6c khimg hoang Ukraina. Vd cdn ban, EU khdng phai la tac nhdn chinh cua cupc khung hoang Ukraina, bdi cac nha lanh dao EU dd sang sudt d l thiu hidu nhiing hdu qua khung khilp ma hp se phdi nhiin niu doi dau v(5i Nga. Tuy vdy, vide iing hd cho mdt Ukraina ddn chii theo kidu phuong Tdy cting dugc coi
^yCkung. kadng. ^Ukraina... 17
la mdt nguydn nhan khiln EU phdi chiu ttach nhiem vl vin dl Ukraina, nhu hp da timg lam dd Idt do chinh quydn Kiev ttong cudc each mang Cam nam 2004.
Ddi vdi M% tham vpng md rdng NATO la van de cdt ldi, tao ra phan ung ngugc tii phia Nga. Pham vi anh hudng cua MJ dang ngay cdng dugc md rdng vd tit nhidn ngudi Nga khdng thd dung nhin. Cd Nga vd My thudng bat ddng nhau ttong rit nhilu vin dd lien quan den an ninh toan ciu. Ching han, vide Nga ludn phan ddi cdc lenh trimg phat va sir can thidp cua My ddi vdi Iran va Syria da lam gia tdng cang thdng cho quan he Nga - My. Rd rang la ngudi Nga khdng hd mudn thua kem ngudi My d bit cu chidu canh ndo, nhung khd ndng thuc hidn cac muc tieu chiln luge cua Nga cdn han chd. Vide nudc Nga ung hp cho su tdn tai cua chinh quydn Syria va Iran la mdt thach thiic ddi vdi tham vpng cua My, vi vdy tidu diet hodc kidm chl dugc nudc Nga cd the giiip cho viec loai bd Syria, Iran ttd nen dd ddng hon ddi vdi My. Cdc bidn phdp trimg phat Chinh phu My ap dung ddi vdi Nga hidn nay ciing Id cdch dd budc dng Putin thay ddi lap trudng trong van de Ukraina hodc se phai nhugng bd My. Song dilu dd khdng cd nghia la My va cac ddng minh cua My khdng bi anh hudng vd mat kinh tl, thdm vao dd, quan hd My - Nga cd thi roi vao tt^g thai ddng bang khd cd the phuc hdi.
Trong Thdng diep Liin bang ndm 2015, Ting thdng My Obama dd ddt Ukraina diing thii hai trong cac vin dd dli ngoai dugc quan
tdm vd coi do la diem ndng ttdn thd gidi nam 2014. Nhu ong Obama cho thiy, vin dl Ukraina la su thd hidn siic manh ciia My ttong ngoai giao, bang vide ung hd nen dan chu Ukraina, hd ttg ddng minh NATO va duy tri nguydn tic nudc ldn khdng the bit nat nudc nhd hon. Chidn sir d Ukraina each xa nudc My ndn khdng dnh hudng tdi an ninh ciia My, vdi phong each ciia Dang Ddn chu - vdn theo quan diem chu nghTa tir do, chinh quyen Obama da td ra than trpng.
Ngay cd khi Nga sap nhdp Crum, dng Obama ciing khdng vdi vang, cho du tuydn bo se chinh thuc can thidp dl giiip do chinh quydn Ukraina chdng lai Nga va cac luc lugng li khai than Nga. Tuy nhidn, thay vi mdt su hidn dien true tilp ciia quan dpi My hodc NATO, dng Obama lai chi "de doa"
bdng tidn hanh tap ttdn vdi cac nudc viing Baltic vd vien trg vii khi hang nhe cho Ukraina. Uu tien cua chinh quydn MJ la cac bien phap trimg phat vd kinh tl. Vdi hp, day la mdt chidn luge ddi ngoai khdn ngoan viia giup nudc My tiet kiem dugc ngudn luc, vua cd the dam bdo an todn trudc mat trong khi nudc Nga se bi cd lap va suy thoai vd kinh td. Chinh quydn Obama vdn dang kidn tri eac bidn phap trimg phat ddi vdi Nga, kha ndng hp can thi$p bang quan su vao Ukraina la khdng cao, it nhat la ttong thdi gian cdm quydn cdn lgi cua dng Obama.
Thic hai, dnh hudng tic phia Nga. Sau khi Lidn Xd tan ra, nudc Nga ke thira dia vi phdp ly ciia Lidn Xd ttdn trudng qudc tl va sd hiiu cdc ngudn lire siic manh khdng Id vd
NGHIEN CCTU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N ° 4 ( i a 7 ) . 2 0 U
qudn su, tai nguydn. Sau nhiing ndm thdng khung hoang dudi thdi Boris Yeltsin, nudc Nga dang thay ddi dudi su cheo ldi cua V.
Putin. Nga van la mdt cudng qudc ldn d luc dia A - Au vd dl nhidn, hg ciing mudn thd gidi nhin hp vdi vi the la mpt cudng quoc todn cdu. Gidng nhu mpi cudng qudc khac, bd quyln ludn la tham vpng ldn nhdt vd Id tit yeu ttong quan he qudc te, nudc Nga khdng bao gid tir bd y muon ttd thanh sidu cudng dli sdc ddi ttpng vdi My.
Phdn ldn lanh thd nudc Nga ndm d chau A song trong tu duy ddi ngoai ciia nudc Nga, chau Au vin la ttpng tdm. Nhung khdng gilng nhu Yeltsin hpc t^p chau Au mdt cdch Id thupc va thieu sang tao, Putin ttong qua trinh cheo lai nudc Nga dang cho thay nhOng budc di khdn ngoan hon: Phuang Tay ludn la ddi tac quan ttpng nhat, song dd ciing chinh la ddi thu ldn nhat cua Nga, vi vdy muc tidu ciia Putin la phai bao v? khdng gian hdu Xd viet, noi cd ^ nghia quylt dinh ddn an ninh ciia nudc Nga. John J. Mearsheimer da diing khi cho rang phuang Tdy da sai lim khi dua vao quan niem tu do dd ldi keo Ukraina md khdng nhdn ra nudc Nga ciia Putin da rat hidn thuc khi kien quylt bao vd Ukrama nhu mot "Id chdn tu nhidn"^^ ngdn each nudc Nga vdi cac ddi thii phuang Tay.
Sau khi Lidn Xd sup dd, nudc Nga da cd gdng kiem soat cdc qude gia lan can bing
Stratfor (2014), A Chronology of Russia from Yeltsin's Fall Through Putin's Rise, https://www.stratfor.com/analisis/chronology-russia- yeltsins-fail-through-putins-rise, truy cSp thang 3 nSm 2016.
vide chu dgng hinh thdnh cdng dong SNGj dua vao siic manh kinh td va ngudn nang lugng khdng Id nhim ngan chdn xu hudng I nga theo phuong Tay. Cdc nudc nam troi^
khdng gian hdu Xd vidt nay dugc coi U '
"vung ddm an todn" cua Nga. Quay ttd Iju cudc khiing hoang tdn lua Cuba ndm 1962, Tdng Bl thu Lien Xd khi ay la Khrushchev da dua ten lua tdi tan Cuba de de doa My voi li do 15 qud ten lua Jupiter ma chinh quy^
Kennedy dat d Thd NhT Ky la mdi hiim hosi vdi Lien Xd. Sau dd, Khrushchev mong mudn Keimedy nit tdn ilia ra khdi Thi NhJ Ky dl ddi lay vide Lidn Xd se chip nhdn gia quylt cudc khimg hodng nay.
Thit bai cua Yeltsin d Kosovo (1998) da bdo hidu nhumg lo thiing ttong vung dSra cua Nga. Cac nude Ddng Au lidn tuc phan hod va li khai thdnh nhilu qudc gia khac nhau. Nga ggp that bai trong viec ngdn chan cac cudc each mang sac man nd ra d Dong Au va Trung A, mac dii nudc nay van duy tri dugc su kiem soat nhdt dinh ddi vdi cac quic gia xung quanh. Tdi ndm 2007, bat ch^
nhiing phdn ddi cua Nga, tinh Kosovo d2 tuydn bd ddc ldp vdi su hau thuin ciia phuong Tdy. Mdt loat cac nudc Ddng Au da ttd thdnh thanh vien cua EU va c6 y djnh tham gia NATO.
Trong bdi canh nudc My dang bi sa lay vdo chiln trudng Trung Dong, lam tieu ton kha nhilu tai nguydn quan sir vd kinh tl cua My, nudc Nga dudi su lanh dao ciia bp doi Putin - Medvedev dd tiln hanh cuOc chien tranh Nam Ossetia nam 2008 nhu mOt nd lire
yCkung. kedng. Qlkraitui... 19
khdi phvic vilng dnh hudng ti^yln thong. Kit qua la qudn dpi Nga, Nam Ossetia va Abkazia da gidnh chidn thing, thilt lap ndn cac nha nudc dugc Nga cdng nhdn, song nudc Nga da mat di Gruzia vi Gruzia sau dd dd tdch ra khdi SNG.
No l\rc khdi phuc lai vung dnh hudng truyin thong ciia Nga gap phai cdn ttd ldn do su ldn mEinh cua EU va NATO, ttong dd NATO ddng vai ttd quan ttpng hon. Nudc Nga da bat dau bdng su cim quyln cua V.
Putin vdi vide nhan manh ring hi?n d^ hod qudn ddi la nen tang khdi phuc tu thi cudng quic cua nudc Nga hdu Chiln ttanh Lanh.
Nha chinh tri hpc Emmanueile Armandon, chuyen gia vd Ukraina, nhdn dinh tren td Le Monde (Phdp); 'Tii- khi Lien Xd sup dd, mdt trong nhimg uu tien hdng ddu trong chinh sdch ngogi giao cua Moscow la giir Ukraina trong tdm kiim sodt Nga ludn xem Ukraina vd cdc nudc thudc Liin Xd cO duang nhien thugc vimg dnh hudng ciia minh. Dieu ndy gidi thich vi sao Moscow khdng chdp nhdn cho EU md rgng biin gidi vi phia Ddng "^°.
Vd cdn ban, ca Nga va EU deu chia se nhieu lgi ich chung ve kinh te va cac van de khu vuc vd toan cau khac; hon niia, viec ddi phd vdi mpt nudc Nga hung manh ludn la mdt dilu ma EU lo ng^ ndn cac nudc EU se khdng khoi mao cho bat cii xung dot nao vdi
Nga. Van dd nam d quan he Nga - NATO.
Tren th\rc td, dng Putin hilu ring, vin dd bdo hd an ninh giua My vdi EU la ylu td then chdt dd cdc qudc gia nay duy tri su tdn tai cua NATO bdt chap vide khdi Warszawa da tan rd. NATO cd y nghia quan trpng ddi vdi an ninh d chau Au vd la cdng cy chinh dl My tilp tiic banh ttudng siic meinh ra chdu Au vd nhieu noi khac. Chinh quyln My cd thd khuydn khich EU doan kit chdt hon dl ddi phd vdi Nga, nhung ciing khdng mudn td chiic nay trd thanh mdt lidn minh quan sir cua ridng chau Au, bdi ndu dilu dd xay ra, vai trd cda NATO se bi ha thip. Trong khi dd, ban than EU ciing mudn thoat khdi vdng kidm soat ciia My. Do do, sir Udn kit cua EU vd banh trudng cua NATO trd thanh ydu td de doa true tidp den vi thd cua nudc Nga d luc dia A - Au. Vdi cac nha ldnh dao qudc gia tu duy theo quan didm hidn thuc tan cdng (Offensive Realism), each "an todn" nhdt cho mpt qudc gia Id hay nhan didn nhiing ke thu tidm tang va tin cdng trudc khi ke thu dd manh len, vi khi ddi phuang mgnh thdm eung cd nghia Id nguy hiem se ldn hon, va hon nfia, khi dd, ndu tin cdng ddi phuong se "tdn kem" hem va khd thang hon. Theo John Mearsheimer: "Cdc qudc gia diu xudt phdt tic muc dich tic vi, nhung cdu true cua hi thdng qudc ti lgi bugc chiing phdi suy nghivd ddi khi Id hdnh ddng theo kiiu tdn cdng"^^
^° Vu van D^t (2014), "Nhto I^ii nhttng nguy6n nhSn cu$c khiing hoing Ukraine h i | n nay", Bdo Ngh? An, http://baonghean.vn/quoc-te/201409/nhin-Iai-nhung- nguyen-nhan-cuoc-khung-hoang-ukraine-hien-nay- 532265/, truy c§p thang 3 nam 2016.
Rose, Gideon (1998), World Politics, Vol. 51, No. 1 (Oct.), New York: Cambridge University Press, p. 149.
20 NGHIEN CCrU C H A U AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°4 (167).20li
Vdi nudc Nga, cac ydu td ben ngodi dang ttd nen nguy hidm hon bao gid hdt: My ung hp cac nuoc thupc Lien Xd cii gia nhap NATO, diing sau cac cupc each mang mau d Ukraina, Gruzia va Kyrgyzstan, thanh lap cac can cii quan su d khu vuc Trung A va tuydn bo se thidt ldp he thdng phdng thu tdn Ilia d Ddng Au. Do do, nudc Nga phai ttd lai cac khu vuc anh hudng cii va co gang han chd anh hudng cua phuang Tay d cac nudc xung quanh de dam bao su ton tai cua minh . Diing nhu cim Thu tudng Ukraina Tymoshenko danh gid: Putin dang bien Ukraina th^ih mpt qudc gia dem ban chu quyen ciia Nga^'^
Anh hudng cua My vd phuong Tay dang lan at Nga d mpi khu vuc la nguyen nhan tiep theo khien Nga quydt tdm khdng de mat Ukraina. Vd ban chit, cac qudc gia sdng ttong mdi trudng vd chinh phii nen phai canh ttanh vdi nhau. Canh ttanh la cot loi ttong quan he qudc te, kd cd d bit ki hinh thiic hgp tac nao, do dd, dl khdng bi thua thidt. phai luon tim cdch chilm ITnh lgi thi hon cac nudc khac, dac bidt la giiia cdc nudc ldn . Cac cudng qudc se ludn hdnh ddng ich
^^ Stratfor (2014), A Chronology of Russia from Yeltsm's Fall Through Putin's Rise, https://www.stratfor.com/ana! is is/chrono iogy-russia- yeltsins-fall-through-putins-rise, truy cSp thang 3 nSm 2016.
" Tymoshenko, Yuliya (2015), "Darkness on the Edge of Europe", Project Syndicate, http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/russia- iikraine-and-eiirope-in-2015-by-yultya-iymoshenIio- 20!5-01?barrier=true. tmy cap thing 2 nSm 2016.
^* Rourke, John T. and Mark A. Boyer (2002), World Politics. International Politics on the World Stage,
ki vi lgi ich cua minh, nhung vdi didu kien IS cdi lgi thu dugc phdi ldn hon chi phi bo ra.
Dd hidu vi sao bit chdp nhiing Idnh triing phat ciia My vd phuang Tay, nudc Nga vln tidp tuc duy tri anh hudng d Ukraina. Cu6i ndm 2010, khi phong ttao "Mua xuan Arab"
nd ra, nudc Nga van cd mdt vi thd kha viing chic d Trung Ddng. Tuy nhidn, din khi My bat diu cdng kich vao Chinh phu Syria cua Tong thdng Bashar Al-Assad thi Nga khSng thd ngdi ydn, Nga img hd manh me che do Assad va thudng bac bd cac nghi quyet chong lai chd dd nay tai Hpi ddng Bdo an Lien hgp qudc. Ciing gidng nhu Ukraina, Syria cd vi tti rat quan trpng d khu vuc Tnmg Ddng, nai Nga cd thd duy tri va mo rpng cdc cdn cii hai quan de khoi phuc lai vj thd ddi vdi khu vuc ndy. Chinh phu Assad cung chip nhan dl Nga triln khai quan doi d Syria nhdm tao ra su can bing vdi cac nudc Trung Ddng khac. Khi chinh quyln Obama de dpa khdng kich Syria sau khi Damascus su' dung vu khi hoa hpc di doi phd vdi quan ndi ddy, ngudi Nga da kich liet phan ddi ke hoach cua Obama vd dua ra mpt sang kidn dam phan. Trong cudc khung hoang nay, nudc Nga cho thay mpt hinh anh cuong quydt va manh me trong khi chinh quyen Obama lai td ra thieu quyet doan va ydu dudi^^-
Brief (Fourth Edition), New York, McGraw- Hill/Dushkin, pp. 13-14.
" Friedman, George (2014), "Can Putin SurviveT', Stratfor, https://www.stratfor.coin/weekli/can-putin- survive, truy cap thing 3 nSm 2016.
yChuMtg kodng ^Ukraina.,. 21
Nga la mdt cudng qudc chdu Au, tuong lai ciia qu6c gia ndy gdn chat vdi luc dia A- Au, do dd dd bdo vd nhiing lgi ich cua minh, Nga budc phai canh ttanh va can bdng siic manh vdi EU va My ho^c bdt ki cudng qudc nao khdc. Sau khi Lidn Xd sup dd, cac qudc gia Ddng Au vd Trung Au cd hudng phdt trien chinh sach ddi ngoai khd rd rang, hdu hit diu mudn ttd thanh thanh vidn ciia NATO va EU, "bdng cdch do, hg mudn dugc bdo ddm cd ve an ninh, nhdt la trudc mgt nudc Nga hiing mgnh mdi, ldn cd sir phdt triin kinh ti"^^. Nudc Nga diing trudc mdt thach thiic ldn; cac nudc Ddng Au co thi lien kit vdi NATO tao thanh mpt lidn minh quan su di chdng lai Nga. Ddi vdi Nga, dilu ma hp ttong dpi la cdc nhd lanh dao Ddng Au se phdi xem xet l^i y dinh gia nhdp NATO ndu khdng mudn chiu mdt thdm hoa nhu dang didn ra d Ukraina, hoac mdt Ddng Au bi "Phin Lan hoa" (Finlandization) - trung lap va diing ngodi vdng xoay quyln lire ciia phuang Tay. Nga dimg Ukraina nhu la each khiln My xem xet lai sir hien didn cua My dd ttanh mdt cudc chay dua vu trang mdi. Diing nhu Ngoai trudng Nga Lavrov ndi: "NATO tiip tuc chinh sdch bao vdy Nga, cdc budc di dang dugc thuc hien di tdng cudng khd ndng qudn su vd md rgng su
hiin diin ciia hg tgi dudng biin gidi vdi nudc Nga "
Cd thi thiy, nudc Nga ciing gidng nhu mgi qudc gia khac, vi phai sdng trong mdi trudng vd chinh phu nen ludn tin tai nhiing mdi de doa tii ben ngoai ddi vdi su tdn vong cua qudc gia, do dd an ninh qudc gia trd thanh mdi ban tdm ldn nhat cua cac nha nudc va hp phdi tim each nang cao an ninh cho bdn than^^. Bdt ki qudc gia nao ciing lo lang vd su tdn vong ciia minh, du manh hay yeu, dilu do da khuyen khich cac cudng qudc hudng den ba quydn, theo logic nghich ly "bdnh trudng dl tdn tai"^^; hoac tdi thidu Id se khdng bi tidu diet mdt each nhanh chdng. "Ddi vdi Nga, muc dich ciia hg khdng chi dimg lgi d viec sdp nhdp Crum vd ldi keo miin Ddng vd Nam Ukraina, md phdi kiim sodt dugc todn bd Ukraina. Niu Nga khdng ldm dugc dieu do thi ho ciing khdng mudn My hay chdu Au ldm dugc. Tdt nhiin do Id lai ich qudc ti quan trgng nhdt ddi vdi Nga " .
^* Hgc vien Ngoai giao (2009), Dong Toy Nam Bdc.
Nhimg diin biin chinh irong guan h^ quoc te tic 1945, Ki N§i, Nxb The gidi, tr.341.
Thong TSn xa Vi§t Nam (2014), Tdi lieu iham khdo ddc biit %o33A -TTX,\x.\\.
^^ Hoang Khac Nam (2011), Quyen tuc trong quan he quoc le: Lfch sic vd vdn de. Ha Npi, Nxb V5n hod - Thong tin, tr.76.
^' Acharya, Amitav (2008), "Theoretical Perspectives on Intemational Relations in Asia" in International Relations of Asia, edited by David Shambaugh &
Michael Yahuda. Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, p. 63.
'" Friedman, George (2014), "Can Putin Survive?", Stratfor, https://www.stratfor.cora/weekli/can-piitin- survive, truy cap thing 3 nSm 2016.
22
NGHIEN CCrU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N ° 4 (187).20163. Dirffc va mit cua cu$c khung hoang Ukraina
Tinh hinh ngay cdng trd ndn bl tic d Ukrama phdn anh hai phan iing rieng biet giita phuang Tdy va Nga. Vdi My, chinh quyln Obama dudng nhu khdng cdn may quan tam din cupc khung hodng d qudc gia Ddng Au ndy. Vdi hp, vide My va dong minh kilm sodt dugc phin ldn Ukrama va nudc Nga dang phai duong ddu vdi nhiing khd khan trim trpng ve kinh tl la du, nudc My vdn dang diing viing d vi tii sd mdt todn ciu. Nam 2016, nudc My se budc vao cudc biu cir tdng thdng, su kien thu hiit dugc sir quan tdm rdt ldn cua thd gidi, vi vdy cir tri My se chii y nhidu hem din vide lira chpn ai lam ngudi dan dat nudc My hon la tidp tuc doi hoi d mpt ngudi sap tii nhidm nhu dng Obama.
Nudc Nga ciia Tdng thdng Vladimir Putin lai cho thay bd mat ttai ngugc, hp td ra manh me va ciing ran thuc hidn muc tidu ciia minh bat chip su bao vdy ciia phuong Tay.
Nhieu nha quan sat va binh ludn qudc tl da nghi ngd vd khd ndng thuc s^ cua nudc Nga, hoac don gian la "Putin tic mgt nha cdm quyin hiiu qud. tinh ti va quyit dodn trd thanh mot ngudi yiu kem vd nguy hiim, theo dudi mdt su hdi sinh vd vgng vdi cdc phuang cdch sai ldm"^\ Thuc tl dd cho thiy dilu ngugc lai. Da cd nhilu chi trich ong Putin vl vide sap nhap Crum va hd ttg cho cac luc
" Friedman, George (2014), sdd.
lugng ndi ddy d mien Dong va Nam I thilt lap ndn cac nha nudc cdng hod tir trj.
Nhung rd rang la Putin cd li do de lam v$y, NIU M J va phuang Tay cd thd hdu thuin cho su dpc lap cua Kosovo thi Nga hodn toan ci thd lam nhu the. Dd Id logic hanh dpng cua cac chu the cd siic manh trong mdi trudng quoc td vd chinh phu. Nga da gidnh hi Crum ma khdng can su dung vu luc, sau dd My vi chau Au ddu khdng cd hanh ddng dap trd n^
du manh dd thay ddi dugc vin di. Thdng 3/2015, nhdn ki nidm mdt nam ngdy Crum quay ttd ve Nga, kdnh truyen hinh Russia-1 cua Nga dd trinh chieu bp phim tai lieu Crum: Du&ng vi Td qudc, ngdm khdng djnh vdi ngudi ddn Nga va cdng ddng qudc te m^t thdng diep: Tdng thdng Vladimir Putin dang nam chac quydn didu hdnh ddt nudc va ong san sang sii dung siic manh qudn su dd bao ve nudc Nga va cac cdng ddn cua mmh.
Cudc khimg hoang Ukraina dupc xem thdm hoa dia chinh tti toi td nhdt ke tir sau Chien ttanh Lanh. Qua sdm de cd the kh^g dinh vl mdt su thay ddi trat tu d chau Au, nhung an ninh ciia khu vyc nay bi de doa mpt each ttdm ttpng. Cdc nhd lanh dao EU sS phai hdi h|in vi da gdp siic tao ndn cu^c khimg hodng nay, ttong khi ke gidt ddy la My dudng nhu khdng bi dnh hudng nhieu.
My da dd lai cho EU mdt Ukraina dd ndt va mdt ttang thai thii dich vdi nudc Nga. LiSn minh Chau Au bit diu cho thiy su chia re nhit dinh ttong vide xd ly vin de Ukraina va hoa giai mdi quan hd vdi Nga. Thda thu^n
ZKJkuMtjg kedng (Ukraina..*. 23
Minsk ma EU hi vpng cd thi lam diu di xung dot d Ukraina da khdng dugc thuc thi hidu qud. Dilu nay cd nghia vai ttd ddn xIp va hoa gidi cua EU khdng dugc coi ttpng.
Bang vide kidm soat Crum, Nga da cd thd sii dung hai qudn ciia hg mpt cdch tu do hon, thay vi phdi lidn tuc mac ca vdi Ukraina de duy tii sir tdn tai cua chung. Luc lugng hai quan cua Nga d Sevastopol, Balaklav vd nhat la Ham dpi Bidn Den cd y nghia rit quan ttgng ddi vdi vi thd cua nudc Nga. Cac cdn cii qudn su d Crum va d cang Tartus (Syria) giup Nga khdng bi bao vay, ddng thdi la didm tua dd Nga duy tri anh hudng ddi vdi khu vuc bien Dia Trung Hai va Trung Ddng. Di nhien, day la siic manh quan trpng de Nga cd thd edn bdng vdi NATO vd uy hiep cde ddi thu.
Tinh hinh chinh tri d Bic Phi - Trung Ddng ciing dang tdc ddng rat ldn tdi an ninh cua chau Au. Cudc khiing hoang di dan d chdu Au nhu dd them dau vao nhung ttanh cai lidn quan ddn ttach nhidm cua EU va tiing thdnh vien ttong td chiic ndy ddi vdi ti'nh hinh d Bdc Phi - Trung Ddng ciing nhu viec giai quylt vdn dd dan nhap cu. My va EU vin dang loay hoay trong viee tidu diet Nha nudc Hdi gido tu xung (IS) dang hoanh hanh d Iraq vd Syria ttong bdi canh cudc npi chien d Syria van tiep didn. Tdng thdng Putin dang khiln MJ va EU liing tiing bdng quylt dinh tin cdng cdc lire lugng khiing bd IS d Syria. Muc tidu cua ddng thdi ndy cua
Nga cd thd dugc hidu ring Nga mudn giiip My va chau Au tieu diet IS dd ddi lai vide duy tri sy tdn tai cua chinh quydn Syria cua dng Bashar al-Assad, mot ddng minh cua Nga d Trung Ddng dang bi My tim each lat do. Nhung vdn de la tai sao den cudi nam 2015 Nga mdi tham gia chdng lai IS va cdn md ra kha ndng hgp tdc vdi phuang Tdy vd van de nay? Putin khdng chi la mdt chinh tri gia quydt doan, ma dng cdn rat tinh td vd nhay cdm vdi nhiing thdi khac quydt dinh.
Quyet dinh tan cdng IS cua Putin chinh la each de dng khdi phuc lai hinh anh cua minh trudc ngudi dan Nga dang bat man vi tinh ttang kinh td sa siit, hudng sy chii y cua du ludn Nga ra khdi cac vdn dd ndi bd ma hp dang gap phai. Cudc tham dd ciia Trung tam Nghidn ciiu Cdng luan Nga hdi thang 10/2015 cho thay ti Id ung hd cdc boat ddng cua dng Putin dat miie ky luc la 89,9%, trong dd ydu td quan trpng nhat Id nd luc cua vi Tong thdng nay d Syria^^. Tan cong IS d Syria ciing la each dd Putin ndng cao vi the cua nudc Nga, bdo vd ddng minh Syria, phd vd uu the cua My d day.
Ddng thdi cua Nga d Syria cdn nhdm tao ra nhiing thdch thiic nhidu hon cho EU.
Ti phli George Soros da canh bao vd vide Putin dang day manh qua trinh tan ra cua EU bdng viec khien cho EU "trdn ngdp" ngudi ti
'"• Tr^ng Gidp (2015), "Ti le iing hO Putin l^p ky luc mdi vi khong kich Syria." VNExpress, http://vnexpress.net/tin-tuc/the-gioi/ty-ie-ung-ho- putin-lap-lq'-luc-moi-vi-kliong-kich-syria- 3300158.html, truy cSp thing 3 nam 2016.
24 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N ° 4 {187).2016
nan Syria. Mdt khi EU sup dd, nudc Nga se ttdnh dugc sy dd vd vi ddi thii ciia hp da khdng cdn^^
Nga vdn dang thdnh cdng ttong vide ngdn cdn Ukraina gia nhdp EU vd NATO bat chip y muln tham gia ngay cdng cao cua Kiev. Mdc khac, Putin dang din pha vo cdc ciu tnie nin tang cua nin kinh td va xa hdi Ukraina, vi vdy ca EU va NATO se khdng
"vdi vdng" kit nap Ukraina niu qude gia nay khdng dap iing du cac tieu chuin ciia hp. Bdi vay, Tdng thing Ukraina Poroshenko da co y dinh "thoat" khdi cudc chiln d miln Ddng va Nam Ukraina di tap trung cac ngudn lye cho vide tdi tiiilt dit nudc, bdi dng hidu ring:
khdng thi chdng lai nudc Nga ciia Putm vd nhiing ngudi Nga d Ukraina, nhit la khi My dang to ra thd a va thilu quydt doan, con EU khdng cd du siic manh cdn thidt de dp ehd Nga. Hoac phai dyng len mpt biic tudng dd ngdn cdch nudc Nga vdi chdu Au.
Tra ldi phdng vin ngdy 24/2/2014, Tdng thdng Nga Putin tuydn bo danh thep rang:
"Lap trudng cua Nga ve Ukraina va Crum la khdng ddi, ddng nghia vdi viec Nga se khdng nhugng bd vi quan diem vd chiin tay trong cdc hdnh ddng cd liin quan din
Ukraina" - Den nay, quan didm do ciia Putin van khdng thay ddi, bat chip nhiing tin hidu xiu tii nhiing bdt dn ttong nudc va siic ep tir ben ngodi. Cd thd thay rdng gdn nhu Putin se khdng tir bd Ukraina, it nhdt la ttong nhi^m ki cua dng.
Rd rdng, cupc khung hoang Ukraina se khd dugc giai quyet ttong ngdn ban. Ca My, EU va Nga vin dang roi vao vdng luan quin ttong vide tao dyng niem tin lan nhau. Viec ndm canh mdt cudng quoc ludn la vin d§
anh hudng ldn tdi sy ton tai va phat tridn cua moi qudc gia, Vi vdy, cdc nha lanh dao moi qudc gia can phai thau hidu tinh hinh khu vyc va bdn chat cua quan he qudc te dd co dugc hudng di tdt nhat cho dat nudc minh, trdnh bi ttd thanh mdt nhdn td ttong cuoc choi giua cac nudc ldn. Mpi qudc gia khi sdng ttong mdi trudng vd chinh phu thi ph^
ludn tim cdch manh ldn, neu khdng hp se bi ke khac chi phdi.
^^ Soros, George (2016), "Putin is no alii against ISIS", Project Syndicate, http://vra^.project- syndicate.org/commentary/putin-no-alli-against-isis- by-george-soros-2016-02, tmy cjip thdng 3 nam 2016.
" Nguyen Nggc (2015), 'Tong Ihfing Putin vachta
"con du6ng duy nhSt Ukraina phai di", Bdo An ninh ThU do, http://wvw.anninhthudo.vn/binh-Iuan/tong- thong-putin-vach-ra-con-duong-duy-nhat-ukraine- phai-di/596954.antd, truy c§p thing 2 nSm 2016.