DANH GIA TINH TRANG NHAP SIEU SAU GAN 4 NAM HOI NHAP WTO
TS. LY M I N H KHAI Tdng cue Thd'ng ke
T
rong thdi ky m d c d a , hdi nhap ngay c a n g s l u r d n g vdi thj tradng the g i d i , c l e bien kinh te vi md n h a k i m ngach xua't, nhap khau, c i n c a n thUPng m a i , ty le xul't, n h a p s i e u . . . l l c l e bie'n dac biet quan t r p n g , ludn dapc cac c a p , c l e n g a n h lien quan c h i dao thpc h i e n s i t sao.Trong thdi gian qua, sau khi trd thanh t h a n h v i e n c h i n h thdc cua To chdc Thaong m a i T h e gidi (WTO), boat d d n g k i n h te dd'i ngoai cd nhieu bade p h l t t r i e n m a n h , ddng gdp tich cdc v I o t a n g tradng va p h l t trien k i n h te d l ' t midc, tuy n h i e n , viec c i n c a n thaong mai ludn t h a m hpt d m d c cao dang la mdt t h i c h thdc I d n , thu hiit nhieu sd quan t a m , c h u y cua c l e nha n g h i e n cdu k i n h te cung n h a c l e n h i hoach d j n h c h i n h sach kinh te vT m d . Bai v i e t dadi day se di sau p h a n t i c h n h a m l a m rd hdn v a n de n h a p sieu hien nay.
1 . Nhap sieu sau hoi nhap W T O d mdc cao nhung co xu hadng giam dan
K i m n g a c l i ^'-''"''t k h a u (XK) hang hda i nam '^au hpi n h a p W T O ( 2 0 0 7 - 2 0 0 9 ) b i n h q u a n dat
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After becoming WTO member, foreign trade activities of our country have strongly developed, substantially contributing fo the national eco- nomic growth and advancement. However, trade deficit, which is always at high level, implies a great challenge and attracts concerns of all branches and level.
Based on analysis of trade dificif in the pre- and post-WTO period, some features can be described as follows: trade deficit in posf-WTO period is high but on falling tendency; trade deficit totally originates from domestic sector, while foreign direct invested sector enjoys trade surplus; Vietnam has trade deficit with Asia and has trade surplus with all other continents.
Nevertheless, it is thought that the falling trend of trade deficit/export ratio in the post- WTO period implies a positive signal of export, import activities as well trade balance of our country.
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hpn 56,1 ty U S D / n a m , k i m ngach n h a p khau (NK) dat g i n 71,1 ty U S D / n a m ; 10 t h i n g d i u n a m 2 0 1 0 , k i m n g a c h X K P d c dat 5 7 , 8 ty U S D , N K gan 67,3 ty U S D . Theo d d , k i m n g a c h n h a p sieu b i n h q u a n giai d o a n 2 0 0 7 - 2 0 0 9 l l 1 5 ty U S D / n a m , ty le n h a p sieu so v d i XK taong d n g la 2 6 , 8 % ; 1 0 t h i n g dau n a m 201 0, n h a p sieu l l 9,5 ty U S D , theo d d ty le n h a p sieu/XK la 1 6 , 4 % . N h a v a y , sau khi c h f n h t h d c gia n h a p W T O , c i n c i n thaong m a i va ty le n h a p sieu/XK h a n g n a m d nPdc ta n h i n c h u n g d m d c kha cao so v d i c l e giai d o a n k h a c : giai d o a n 3 n a m trade t h e m hdi n h a p W T O ( 2 0 0 4 - 2 0 0 6 ) , k i m n g a c h n h a p sieu b i n h q u I n c h i gan 5 ty U S D / n a m vdi ty le n h a p sieu/XK v a o k h o i n g 1 5 % ; giai d o a n 1 9 9 6 - 2 0 0 0 , k i m ngach n h a p sieu b i n h q u a n c h i d a t 663 trieu U S D / n a m v d i ty le n h a p sieu/XK la 6 , 4 % .
M a c du k i m ngach va ty le n h a p sieu/XK sau hdi n h a p W T O tang p mdc kha cao, nhPng h i e n d a n g cd xu h a d n g g i a m d a n , td 2 9 , 2 % trong n a m 2 0 0 7 .xud'ng 2 8 , 8 % trong n a m 2 0 0 8 , 2 2 , 5 % trong n a m 2 0 0 9 v l c h i c d n 1 6 , 4 % trong 1 0 t h i n g dau n a m 201 0.
So 59 (11.2010) THONG TIN S. DU BAD KINH TE - XA HOI
41
DIEN DAN TRAO DOI
Bang 1 : Kim ngach xuat nhap khau va nhap sieu trade va sau hoi nhap WTO
Dan vi: trieu USD
BQ nam giai doan 1996-2000 BQ nam giai doan 2001-2005 BQ nam giai doan 2004-2006 Nam 2007
Nam 2008 So bo nam 2009
BQ nam giai doan 2007-2009 Udc 10 t h i n g nam 2010
Kim ngach XK 10.365 22.163 32.919 48.561 62.685 57.096 56.114 57.776
Kim ngach NK 11.028 25.950 37.874 62.765 80.714 69.949 71.143 67.278
Nhap sieu
-663 -3787 -4.955 -14.204 -18.029 -12.853 -15.029 -9.502
Nhap sieu/XK (%)
6,4 17,1 15,1 29,2 28,8 22,5 26,8 16,4 Bieu dd 1: Nhap sieu giai doan trade va sau hoi nhap WTO
8 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -10000 -20000
1 9 9 5 - 2 0 0 0
2 0 0 1 - 2005
il
n Xua't khau m Nhap khau a Nhap sieu
2004- 2006
2 00 7 2 0 0 9 -
2. Nhap sieu hoan toan bat nguon td khu vdc trong nadc, khu vdc FDI luon xua't sieu
Trang giai doan trade hdi nhap WTO (1996-2006) v l 3 nam sau hdi nhap WTO (2007-2009), nhap sieu deu holn toln bat ngudn td khu vpc trong nadc; trong khi dd, khu vpc kinh te cd vd'n dau tP nadc ngoli (FDI) ludn cd xuat sieu (xem b i n g 2).
Sa khic biet k h i Idn vd can can thapng mai gida khu vpc kinh te trong nadc va khu vpc FDI trade het I I do t o l n bp kim ngach XK dau thd cua nPdc ta hien dang dapc tinh cho khu vpc FDI. Neu chia ty le kim ngach XK mat hang nay cho hai khu vpc theo phan dPdc hadng cua tdng khu vpc thi se khdng cd sp khac biet Idn nay. Mat khac, nhap sieu cua khu vpc kinh te trong nadc sau hdi nhap WTO dang d mdc rat cao l l do nhu cau NK cac loai may mdc, thiet bj, phaong tien, dung cu phu tung, nguyen, nhien vat lieu phuc vu cho sin xuat trong nPdc va gia cdng che bien hang XK tang cao trong khi nglnh cdng nghiep phu trp trong nadc cdn non yeu nen chaa d i p dng dapc. Tuy nhien, 9 t h i n g d i u nam nay, nhd chu traong tang cadng XK, han che NK c l e mat hang tieu dung khdng thiet yeu theo tinh than Nghi quyet sd 1 8/NQ-CP cua Chinh phu, ty le nhap sieu cua khu vpc n l y da bat d i u ha xudng mdc tha'p hon.
4 2 THONG TIN S DtJ' BAD KINH TE - XA HOI So 59 (11.2010)
Ben canh dd, mdt nguyen nhan quan trpng k h i c khien cho khu vpc FDI ludn xua't sieu la do sd' doanh nghiep FDI da hoan thanh giai doan d i u tP xay dpng va b i t d i u di vao boat ddng s i n xua't, kinh doanh ngay cang nhieu, san lapng hang hda s i n xua't cho XK ngay c I n g cao khien cho kim ngach XK cija khu vpc nay khdng ngdng tang len.
Bang 2: Can can thUdng mai trade va sau hoi nhap WTO chia theo khu vi/c kinh te
Dan vi: trieu USD
BQ nam giai dean 19%-2000 BQ nam giai dean 2001 -2005 BQ nam giai dean 2004-2006 Nam 2007
Nam 2008 Sdbp nam 2009
BQ nam giai dean 2007-2009 Udc 9 tbang 2010
Kim ngach XK
Khu vtfc trong
nu'dc
6.350 10.589 14.219 20.787 28.156 27.224 25.389 24.200
Khu vifc FDI
4.015 11.575 1 8.704 27.775 34.529 29.854 30.719 27.300
Kim ngach NK
Khu vac trong
nu'dc 8.249 16.944 24.235 41.052 52.121 43.882 45.685 34.400
Khu viic FDI
2.779 9.046 13.739 21.712 28.593 26.067 25.457 25.700
Can can thaohg mai
Khu vifc trong
nu'dc
-1.899 -6.355 -10.016 -20.265 -23.965 -16.658 -20.296 -10.200
Khu vitc FDI
1.236 2.529 4.965 6.063 5.936 3.787 5.262 1.600
Ty le xuat sieu, nhap sieu/XK
(%) Khu
Vl/C
trong nu'dc -29,9 -60,0 -70,4 -97,5 -85,1 -61,2 -79,9 -47,4
Khu vUc FDI
30,8 21,8 26,5 21,8 17,2 12,7 17,1 5,9
Bieu dd 2: Can can thaong mai khu vi/c kinh te trong nadc trade va sau hoi nhap WTO
aXuat khau mNhap khau a Nhap sieu
So 59 (11.2010) THONG TIN & DtJ BAO KINH TE - XA HOI
43
DIEN DAN TRAO DOI
^Bieu dd 3: Can can thdorng mai khu vi/c FDI trade va sau hoi nhap WTO
3 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0
• Xuat khau
• Nhap khau
• Nhip sieu
1 9 9 6 - 2 0 0 0
2 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 4 - 2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7 - 2 0 0 9
3. Vif t Nam nhap sieu duy nhat tu" chau A, xuat sieu sang chau luc khac
Bing cIch chia can c i n thadng mai sau hdi nhap WTO theo chau luc, cd the thay, trong 5 c h i u luc thi cd 4 chau luc Viet Nam dang xul't sieu v l chi duy nhl't nhap sieu td khu vpc chau A. Cu the, kim ngach XK, NK, can c i n thapng mai va ty le nhap, xuat sieu/XK trong 2 nam sau hdi nhap WTO (2007-2008) va 2 nam trPdc hdi nhap WTO (2005-2006) theo tdng chau luc nhp sau:
- Chau A. Trong 2 nam 2005-2006, kim ngach XK binh q u I n cua Viet Nam I I 17,1 ty USD/nam, kim ngach NK 11 33 ty USD/nam, nhap sieu la 15,9 ty USD/nam va ty le nhap sieu/XK 11 93,2%; trong 2 nam 2007-2008, kim ngach XK binh q u I n dat 25,8 ty USD/nam, NK 11 58 ty USD/nam, nhap sieu 11 32,2 ty USD/nam v l ty le nhap sieu/XK la 124,7%. Nhd vay, kim ngach v l ty le nhap sieu/XK sau hdi nhap WTO da tang len k h i nhanh so vdi 2 nam trade hpi nhap (td 93,2% len 124,7%). FHdn nda, di sau vao tdng khu vpc thj tradng cho thl'y, kim ngach nhap sieu cua nadc ta phan Idn 11 td c l e nadc Ddng A vdi ty trpng chiem hdn 70,4%, trong khi ty trpng cua c l e nPdc cdn lai chi chiem dddi 30%.
.,..„„^,,.,..//,,^^^..^„.,^^,^,^^,,^„.^^..^,, . ' - Chau/4u. Trong 2 nam 2005- 2006, kim ngach XK binh quan dat 6,9 ty USD/nam, kim ngach NK la 4,8 ty USD/nam, xul't sieu I I 2,1 ty USD/nam, tddng dng vdi ty le xua't sieu/XK binh quan la 30,4%; trong 2 nam 2007-2008, kim ngach XK binh quan dat 11,2 ty USD/nam, NK la 7,9 ty USD/nam, xua't sieu la 3,3 ty USD/nam va ty le xua't sieu/XK I I 29,9%. Nha vay, c l trade va sau hdi nhap WTO, can can thPdng mai cua Viet Nam vdi thj tradng chau Au cd cung ty le xua't sieu/XK xap xi 30%. Xua't sieu cua
.-i-,^....,.^,,:.^^,..,^,*..,^,, y'^*4^ ..^..^je^
44
THONG TIN S. DlJ BAO KINH TE - XA HOI So 59 (11.2010)nadc ta vdi chau Au sau hdi nhap WTO chu yeu 11 td khu vpc Bac Au va Nam Au vdi ty trpng chiem 69,3%, trong dd, Bic Au chiem 37,7%, Nam Au chiem 31,6%.
- Chau My. Trong 2 nam 2005-2006, kim ngach XK binh q u I n dat g i n 8 ty USD/nam, kim ngach NK la 1,7 ty USD/nam, xua't sieu la 6,3 ty USD/nam va ty le xua't sieu/XK I I 78,8%; trong 2 nam 2007-2008, kim ngach XK binh quan dat gan 13 ty USD/nam, kim ngach NK dat 3,7 ty USD/nam, xua't sieu l l 9,3 ty USD/nam va ty le xua't sieu/XK la 71,7%. Kim ngach XK, NK va xua't sieu vdi chau My chu yeu la td khu vac Ble My vdi ty trpng chiem den 9 8 , 1 % .
- Chau Dai duang. Trong 2 nam 2005-2006, kim ngach XK binh quan dat 3,3 ty USD/nam, kim ngach NK dat 960 trieu USD/nam, xua't sieu hdn 2,3 ty USD/nam va ty le xuat sieu/XK la 70,9%; trong 2 nam 2007- 2008, kim ngach XK binh quan dat 4,2 ty USD/nam, kim ngach NK dat 1,5 ty USD/nam, xua't sieu l l 2,7 ty USD/nam va ty le xul't sieu/XK la 53,9%. Dd'i vdi chau lpc nay, xul't sieu cua nPdc ta g i n nha hoan toan td hai thj tradng chinh I I Oxtraylia va Niu Dilan.
- Chau Phi. Trong 2 nam 2005-2006, kim ngach XK binh q u I n dat 722 trieu USD/nam, kim ngach NK dat 214 trieu USD/nam, xul't sieu l l 508 trieu USD/nam v l ty le xua't sieu/XK la 70,4%; trong 2 nam 2007- 2008, kim ngach XK binh quan dat 968 trieu USD/nam, kim ngach NK dat 522 trieu USD/nam, xua't sieu la 446 trieu USD/nam vdi ty le xua't sieu/XK la 4 6 , 1 % .
Bang 3: Can can xuat nhap khau 2 nam trade va sau hoi nhap WTO theo chau Iuc
Dan vi: trieu USD, %
Chau A
Trong dd: Dong A Chau Au
Trong dd: - B i c Au - Nam Au Chau iVly
Trong dd: Bac My Chau Dai daotig Trong dd:
-Oxtraylia - Niu Dilan Chau Phi
Binh quan nam trade hpi nhap XK
17.117 10.142 6.901 1.506 1.155 7.970 7.283 3.302 3.280
722
NK
33.063 20.689 4.804
546 420 1.686 1.101 960 938
214
T y i e nhap/xuat
sieu (-/-H)
-93,7 -104,0
+30,4 +63,7 +63,7 +78,8 +84,9 +70,9 +71,4
+70,4
Binh quan nam sau hoi nhap XK
25.838 15.063 11.229 2.161 1.973 12.971 11.594 4.214 4.149
968
NK
58.066 37.805 7.875
898 914 3.666 2.466 1.520 1.480
522
Ty le nhap/xuat
sieu (-/+) -124,7 -151,0 +29,9 +58,5 +53,7 +71,7 +78,7 +63,9 +65,0
+46,1 Nhd vay, trong 1 0 t h i n g dau nam 201 0, kim ngach XK dat 57,8 ty USD, kim ngach NK dat 67,8 ty USD, tapng dng tang 23,3% va 20,7% so vdi cung ky nam trPdc v l ty le nhap sieu dapc kiem che d mdc 1 6,4%.
Dieu nay dang md ra mot kha nang rat Idn hoan t h i n h va h o l n thanh vPOt mdc muc tieu ke hoach de ra cho ca nam 201 0. Viec ty le nhap sieu/XK sau hdi nhap WTO cd xu hadng g i l m la tin hieu lac quan ve tinh hinh xuat nhap khau va c i n can thaong mai cua nadc ta.D
So' 59 (11.2010) THONG TIN S. DlJ B A O KINH TE - XA HDI