Ji
NO CONG TANG CAO-NGUY CO DAYTHE GlOl VAO VONG KHUNG HOANG M O I
• PGS, TS THAI VAN LONG Vien Quan he quoc te.
Hoc vien Chinh tri quoc gia Ho ChiMinh
• TS PHAM HONG KIEN Tnrang Dai hoc Thu Dau Mot
• Tom tdt: Bdo cdo kinh tetodn cdu cua Quy Tien te quoc techo thdy, ndm 2019, trien vong kinhte todn cdu se dm dam, tdng trUdng gidm, trong khi nhieu yeu td bdt dinh tdng, nhd: chien tranh thddng mgi My - Trung, sii kho lUdng trong chinh sdch cua My, toe do tdng trddng cua chdu A cham lgi, nhieu Ngdn hdng Trung ddng tren the gidi tang ldi sudt lien tuc, v.v.. Trong boi cdnh do, ng cong dddc xem Id "qud hom hen gid"
CO the phdt no, tdn phd nhieu nen kinh tevd thgm chi day the gidi vdo vong xoay khung 7 mdi.
va the gioi dang diing tmoc nguy co ciia cupc khung hoang tai chinh moi - Idiilng hoang ng.
Tai My: theo so lieu Bao cao hang ngay do Bo Tai chinh cong bo ngay 12-2-2019 cho thay, tong du no cong ciia My da gia tang den nguong ky luc moi la 22.012 ty USD"' va van chua co dau hieu ngimg lai hay giam toe. Khi Tong thong Donald Tiump len nham chtic vao ngay 20-1- 2017, ng cong cua My la 19,95 nghin ty USD. So ng da tang toe ke tit khi ong Trump cat giam 1,5 nghin ty USD tien thue vao thang 12-2017 va Quoc hgi tang chi tieu cho cac chuong trinh trong nuoc va quan su trong nam 2018. Khoan ng cong khong 16 khien gim chuyen gia kinh te My lo ngai boi tac dgng tieu cue ciia no se day 9Tiikh6a: ndcong khung hodng kinh te.
1, Thirc trang nff cong tren the gioi Khung hoang kinh te thg gioi nam 2008 tit My ian rgng ra toan can da duoc khac phuc, nhung keg theo nhieu bat on kmh te vi mo trong thoi ky hau khung hoang. No cong la van de nan giai ctia nhig'u quoc gia tren the gioi.
Thoi gian qua, nhilu nuoc giau da vay ng voi foe dp chgng mat do suy thoai kinh te, cac khoan chi tang nhanh boi cac hoat dgng giai Cliu, h5 trg that nghiep va nhiing n6 lire kich thich kinh te. Cac bien phap nay da khien ngan sach cua nhieu nuoc hi tham hut nang ne, dien hinh nhu My, cac quoc gia A- rap, chau Au va Trang Quoc. Tmh trang tham hut ngan sach Ion onhtmgnugc phat trien co the tiep tuc gia tang
L'? LUAN CHiNHTRj-So S/2019
[ ^ QUdCJg
dat nude vio con dudng tii ehinh thieu ben vtrng, cd thg gay nguy hiem tdi an ninh kinh tg eiia nude My.
Tai Trung Qudc. no cdng cd xu hudng gia ting hgn tuc ke tir nim 2010 trd lai diy. Theo sd heu thdng ke chinh thiic ciia Chinh phii, np cdng di ting tir 47% GDP [nam 2017) len 50,1%
GDP (nam 2018) va du bao dat 53,9% GDP (nim 2019)'^'. Np cdng ciia cie chinh quyen dia phuong d nude niy da tang nhanh len mirc 2,58 nghin ty USD. Np ciia chinh quyen dia phuong ddng nghia vdi viec ting chi tieu edng d cac dia phuang cua Trung Qudc, Mac dti np ciia Chinh phii Trung Qudc hien d mirc 36,2%
GDP'^', thap hon cie nen kinh tg tien tien khic rit nhieu, nhung theo thdng ke tir Bloomberg, tinh den bet thing 11-2018, np cua chinh quyen trung uong la gin 13.500 f^ NDT vio cudi nim 2017, ning tdng np cdng ciia Trung Qude da vuot qua 70 nghin ty NDT (han 10.000 ty USD), chigm han 80% GDP eua nim 2017'^'.
Nhuvay, Trung Qudc da trd thinh qudc gia cd np edng ldn hon bat ky thi trudng mdi ndi nio khic'^'. Cing ding lo ngai ban khi nen kinh te Trung Qudc dang giim tdc dp ting trudng, nim 2018 dat 6,6%, mifc tang yeu nhit kg ttr nim 1990, giim so vdi miic tang 6,8% dat dupe trong nam 2017.
Tai chauAu: npedng tiep tue li mdi lo ldn ciia cac ngn kinh te dianh vien Khu vue ddng Euro (Eurozone) trong bdi einh tde dp tang trudng etia nhieu nen kinh tg hau nhu giim chin tai cho. Bao chi chau Au cho bigt, hien tdng no cdng eua Italy di len tdi 2,3 nghin ty Euro, tuong duong 132% GDP cua nude niy. Mire np cdng cua Hy Lap la gin 180% GDP vi con sd nay d Phap la khoang 97% GDPi"',
Tai chiu A: theo ude tinh ciia Vien Tii chinh Qude te (IIF), np chinh phii d cae nen kinh tg
mdi ndi tai chiu A dat 50% GDP trong quy 111/2018. Tuy nhien, mire gia tang np cdng eung chi ra nhting vin de tiem an ndu nen kinh te toin eau dot ngpt xiu di. Hai nam tdi ed thg kha bip benh sau khi mdt sd nhi kinh tg du doin tang trudng se chiing lai: "Budc vao mpt cupc khiing hoing vdi tmh trang tii chinh ygu se lam tram trpng them chieu siu va thdi gian cua eudc suy thoai tiep theo, dac biet la d eic nen kinh tg thi trudng mdi ndi, bdi ehinh sach tii khda cd tinh thuin chu ky trong nhiing trudng hop niy"'^^
Ngiy 9-2-2019, trong phit bieu tai Diln din Tii ehinh A-rap d Dubai, Tdng Giim doe IMF C.Lagarde da einh bao cac qude gia A-rap khi np cdng cua hp tang len nhanh chdng ke tir cude khung hoing tii chinh toan cau nim 2008, do thim hut ngan sach lien tuc d miic eao. Np edng d cie nude A-rap da tang ttr 64 Idn 85% GDP tir nim 2008-2018. Hien nay, tai gin mpt nira cie qude gia A-rap, np edng thim ehi vuot qua mirc 90% GDP'^'. Tai eae nude xuat khau dau md (bao gdm ca siu quoc gia thudc Hdi ddng Hop tie viing Vinh) miic np cdng eting ting tir 13% lgn 33% GDP, do diu md sut gia tham hai cich diy 5 nam. Ngu cie qude gia nay khdng quygt liet eii each, ca eiu lai vi thiie day tang trudng, ginh ning no cdng se cin budc tang trudng kinh te.
Trong bdi canh eae nen kinh te ngay cing no nhieu hon, chign tranh thuong mai vi chti nghia bio hd gia ting. Td chuc dinh gii tin nhiem qudc tg S&P du bao da tang trudng tai cie nen kinh tg ldn sg chim lai vi kinh tg toin cau ehi ting trudng khoing 3,6% trong nim 2019. Quy Tien te qude tg (IMF) du bao na Chinh phu My se ting tir 108% GDP nam 2018 len 111,3% vio nam 2020. Nhat Bin mic np cao nhit, bing 236% GDP trong nam 2018™
LVLUAN CHINHTRI-So 5/2019
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IMF da einh bio vg van de np gia ting vi cho rang van dg nay se ngiy eing nghiem trpng, nhat la khi cupc suy thoai tiep theo dang cd nguy CO xuat hien.
2. Nguy ca suy thoai tir ng cong Nam 2019, khdi np cdng eiia eic ngn kinh tg Im mpt khi vupt khdi lam kigm soit se trd thinh nhting "trai bom" tan pha cie ndn kinh te ndi rieng va day kinh te the gidi ndi ehung vio cupc suy thoii, khilng hoang mdi. Nhin dinh tren dua vao nhimg cin eif sau:
Mptli, trong Bao eao nim 2018 ve "Thuang mai va phat tridn: Quyen lire, nen ting vi io tudng thuang mai tu do" (ngiy 26-9} eua Hdi nghi Lien Hpp Qude vg thuang mai vi phit trien (UNCTAD) da canh bao; nen kinh tg toin ciu dang bit dau ed diu hieu lung lay vdi cae cuoc chien thuong mai va nguy ea bit dn siu hon. Bao eao neu rd, mdt thip nien sau eudc khung hoang tii ehinh 2008, cie nude di that bai trong viec thay ddi ehinh sich dg ngin ngira nguy ea khiing hoing tii didn, thay vio do cho phep np vi cie the ehg tai chinh khdng 16 phat trign thieu kigm soit. Cupe chign tranh Thuong mai My - Trung leo thang li dau hieu xudng cEip ciia he thdng kinh te vi ea che da phirong. Diy dupe xem la vdng luan quan ve bat binh ding va su gin bd mil thigt giira quyen Ipi chinh tri vi lien bac eiia cie tip doan""'. Ke tir sau cupc khimg hoing 2008, thay vi giai quyet gde rg nguyen nhin, the gidi da cho phep cac the ehe tii chinh ldn manh hon, trong khi cac ngan hing "ngim" tang trudng lgn tdi 160 nghin ty USD, gip ddi quy mo kinh te toin cau. Bao eao chi ra ring, cd phigu ng da tang len gin 250 nghin ty USD, gap 3 lan tdng thu nhip eiia thg gidi vi eao hon 50% so vdi giai doan xiy ra khung hoangi"!. Truoc thuc te do, dng Richard Kozul-
Wright - Ngudi diing diu mang chien lupc phit trien vi toan ciu hda UNCTAD dua ra canh bio "lieh sir da chiing minh cac bong bdng do np giy ndn deu ludn dan tdi nbtrng hiu qui rat tdi te". Np cao gin lien vdi su gia ting bat binh ding khi anh hudng ctia eic the chg tii chinh eung tang len va sd lupng doanh nghiep ldn giam di. Trong khi dd, ldng tin vao he thdng lai suy giam nghidm trpng khi eic thg ehe til ehinh gay ra khiing hoang lai khdng phii chiu traeh nhiem va tham ehi kiem them Ipi nhuan ttr viec niy. Hang tin CNBC, Korea Investment Corporation - mdt td chirc uy lin ctia Han Qude mdi diy da einh bio ring, cupc chign thuong mai My - Trung, cimg vdi sir bat dn d thi trudng mdi ndi, cd the giy ra mdt cupc khiing hoing tii ehinh toin cau mdi.
Hai la, cie ehuyen gia kinh tg hang diu ciia Cdng ty Dich vu tii chinh vi dau tu ngin hing da dien My JPMorgan Chase di nhin dinh:
"Chiing ta da de he thdng tii chinh phit trien nhanh hon cac bien phip bao ve mi chiing ta dua ra trong eic cupe dai suy thoai vi khign eho he thdng trd nen rit dg vo vi dd hi tdn thuang"'^^'. Cie ehuyen gia eua JPMorgan Chase da thiet lip nhiing md hinh khic nhau nhim du bio ve thdi diem vi miie dd nghiem trong ciia cude khimg hoang tii ehinh tiep theo ma the gidi se hiing chiu, xae dinh ehu ky lap lai Irong nen kinh te'. Md hinh ciia hp dua tren eac ygu td gdm quing thdi gian ting trudng kinh te, dp dii du bao eua cude suy thoii hep theo, miic dp vay no, dinh gia tii sin va miie do ndi long cie quy die giam sal vi mirc dp sang tao tii chinh, Tir kgt qui nghign ciiu md hinh, chign lupc gia Marko Kolanovie ciia JPMorgan Chase cho ring, su dieh ehuyen manh me khdi hoat ddng quin ly lii sin chu ddng sang quan ly thu ddng, thdng qua sir ndi
LVLUAN CHINHTRI-So 5/2019
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QUbCTElen ciia cac quy chi sd, quy giao dich hoan ddi (ETF) va cae ehien lupc giao dieh dira tren dinh luong da lim gia tang miie dp nguy hiem eiia su gian doan thi trudng, Ong Kolanovie ehi ra ring; suy giim thanh khoin tren thi trudng chiing khoin My hien vin d khoang 2/3 dudi miie trudc khiing hoang. Tinh thanh khoan tren cie thi trudng thu nhip cd dinh da xau di do cie ngan hang dang ddng mdt vai trd nhd hon nhu cie nha sin xuat thi trudng. Ong einh bao su suy giim thanh khoin trdn thi trudng tii chinh toin ciu Ii nhin to cd the trd thinh mdt tinh ning chinh kich ddng cupe khiing hoing tigp theo'"'.
Ba li, Cue Du tni Lign bang My (FED) ting Iii suat vi cupc chign thuong mai giira My vdi Trung Qudc cting cd thg kich ddng eudc khung hoang sip tdi. Tren thuc tg, eic chuygn gia eua Ngin hing My (Bank of America) da einh bio ring, lai suat tang cd the cham ngdi eho eudc khiing hoang tai chinh toin ciu mdi. Trong nim 2018, thi trudng chiing khoin cua eae thi trudng mdi ndi rit sdi ddng do FED ting lai suat dg eiing cd ddng USD. Theo cie nha phin tieh, tinh hinh thg gidi hien nay rat gidng vdi nhting gi di xay ra 2 thip nien trudc khi cae nhi dau tu o at riit vdn khdi cie thi trudng mdi ndi. Bank of America coi chinh sich bao hd eiia My li mdi de dpa ldn ddi vdi su dn dinh kinh tg thg gidi. Cupc chign thuong mai gay ra nhung ton that ldn cho thuong mai qude te, inh hudng den gii ei va kha nang tigp can cie sin pham trong chudi cung ting, dieu niy gay tdn hai cho nen kinh tg toin cau. Sau hon 10 nam, ke ttr nam 2008, nguy ea mdt eudc dai suy thoii lai manh nha. Chuyen gia phan tich dau tu ky cuu ciia My, dng Mark Mobius, ngudi da cd nhieu nam kinh nghiem d eic qudc gia dang phit trign eho ring: chien tranh thuong mai
chi la min khdi dau eho khimg hoang tii chinh. Mdt cupc khung hoang tii chinh tren pham vi toin the gidi dang din xuat hien.
Bdn li, nguyen nhin den tir ei nhan Tdng thdng Donald Trump va chinh sich ciia My.
Tdng thdng Donald Trump dang la nhan vit chinh khign trat tu the gidi thay ddi. Nbtrng thay ddi nay dang lam lung lay "niem tin" cua the gidi khi dng Donal Trump dang timg budc thuc hien eic cam kgt ctia minh li riit My khdi eic hiep dinh toin ciu mi nude nay timg thiic day, nhu: Hiep dinh Paris vg chdng bien ddi khi hiu; Hiep dinh Thuang mai tir do Bic My (NAFTA); Td chiie Thuang mai the gidi (WTO);
eung nhu dit eau hdi ve vai trd eiia Td ehire Hiep ude Bie Dai Tiy Duong (NATO)... Bgn canh dd, chinh sich thuong mai eung ran nhieu kha nang se tigp tue dupe Tdng thdng Donald Trump trien khai trong thdi gian tdi, bdi dng coi diy li bien phip bio dim loi ich cho nen kinh lg My vi eting la chia khda cho eo hdi tii die eii. Bdi vay, kinh tg toin eiu cd the edn hiing chiu nhting cu sdc mdi khic nghiet ban trong nim 2019.
Ngoai ra, cdn nhirng du bio cd the lam biing nd cupc khung hoang mdi. Thunhatlk nacdng va no thuong mai dang d mire bio ddng. Theo cie ehuyen gia, cd rat nhieu nguyen nhan dan tdi mdt cude khiing hoang mdi. Ngudi ta cd the khdng thiy nhung trudng hpp phi sin cae ngan hing nhu trudc diy, khi xiy ra eudc khiing hoing nam 2008, nhung ro ring np edng dang tang khiing khiep ke ei d My, Anh, Nhat Ban, Italy va gid la My Latinh... Qui trinh tich luy np cdng khdng the dirng lai thi tat yeu se tdi liic
"phit no". Thuhaila tinh trang mat Idng tin etia eae nhi diu tu va cudi cting li vi cie cdng ty trong linh vue cdng nghe moi vi cac id chuc tii chinh phi ngin hang khdng tuin thu cie quy
LYLUAN CHINHTRI-So 5/2019
Ji
tk cua thi trudng. Thu ba, khdng it ehuyen gia lo ngai ring, "kha nang phdi hpp" de ting phd v6i cac nil ro d i trd nen khan hiem nhat trdn thi trudng chinh tri qudc te hien nay. Trgn cae dign dan da phuang nhu G20, hay Didn d i n Hop tie Kinh tg chau A - Thii Binh Duong (APEC) hoae nhom 07..., ngudi ta khdng cdn thay duac nhi^u phieu ddng thuan ve viec phdi hpp chinh sach, Hiu qua li, kJii nen kinh tg di vio mdt chu ky dinh tre, cd thg xay ra trong nam tdi, cie qudc gia khd dieu phoi duac mdt ddi sich chung, vi nhting ring bude ridng trong timg nude. 6 thdi digm hien tai, da ed mpt cude khung hoang niem tin - sir gia ling eiia chti nghia dan tiiy d nhieu nen kmh tg tign tien kem theo nhiing cing thing ehinh trj gia tang. Viec mat niem rin vao kha ning eiia cie n h i hoach dinh chinh saeh trong viec q u i n Iy ngn kinh te se lao ra nhiing i p lire niy. Vi vay, ngoii rui ro suy thoii, se cdn cd thgm nii ro vi thigu sir phdi hop qude tg.
Nhuvay, sau ban 10 n i m kg tir n i m 2008, nhirng bii hpc tir cude khiing hoang tii ehinh van cdn ven nguyen gia tn, Cude khiing hoang no cong da cho thiy: khdng ed ngoai le khiing hoang ng eho bat ky md hinh kinh te va n h i nude nao, kg ca eic tap doin v i eudng qude kinh te hing dau thg gidi. No edng nhu mdt can benh hoi tu cua nhung ke hd trong quan ly d i u tu cdng, vung tay chi tigu ngin sach va h i u qua ctia nan quan ligu, tham nhung. Viec xir Iy np cdng doi hoi su phdi hpp h i i hda gitra ca che, ehinh sach cita Nhi nude v i ea che thi trudng, coi trgng tinh ddng bp v i chti y den tinh 2 mat cua cac giai phap ehinh sich, ddng thdi duy tri ddng luc tang trudng kinh te v i b i o d i m an sinh xi hdi; da dang hda v i phdi hpp hieu qua cie ngudn luc trong nude v i qudc te trong quin ly phat trien.
Thuc tg np edng trgn thg gidi dang dat ra yeu cau ddi hdi ehinh phu cie nude eung nhu cdng ddng qudc tg ein cap bich khdng che va giai quyet. Nhirng khdi np cdng cua eae ngn kinh te ldn mdt khi vupt khdi lam Idem soit, se trd thinh nhung "trai bom" tin p h i cie ngn kinh tg ndi ngng va diy kinh tg the gidi ndi chung vao nguy ea khiing hoang. Cie chinh phii mudn trinh vien einh den tdi dd can giai quygt cie van de ea ban hien nay trudc khi qua mudn •
(1) TTXVN; "Ng qudc gia ciia My vot len mtrc ky luc 22.000 ty USD", http://thoibaotaichinh vietnam.vn.
(2), (4) Minh Diic: "Tmng Qudc; Riii rongedng tiep tuc gia tang", http://tapchitaichinh.vn.
(3) Thien Ha (theo Economic Times): "Np cdng Trung Qudc tang chdng mat", https;//motthegioi.vn,
(5) Diep Vti; "Kinh teTrung Quoc 2018tang trudng cham nhat 28 nam", http;//vneconomy,vn, (6) Khdi Nguyen; "Ng cdng niu chan nhieu nen kinh te", Bao Nhan Dan dien tu, http;//nhandan,com,vn.
(7) TIXVN: "Ngcdnglavande dang lo ngai ddi voi kinh te toan cau" 02/12/2018
(8) Tran Nam Thi; "Ng cdng d cac qudc gia Chau A mdi ndi lang le vupt 50% GDP", https://vietnam- biz.vn
(9) Bich Lien; "Tdng Giam ddc IMF canh bao np cdngdcac nude Arab tang cao", http;//ewn.co.za (10) Minh Bich (theo The National Interest); "Ng cdng tren the gidi; Cude khiing hoang tiep theo?", https;//baomoi.com.
[ID, (12), (13), (14) Dang Anh (TDCVN/Vietnam+):
"Kinh te the gidi tiem an nguy co sau thap ky khiing hoang tii ehinh", hltps://w\'vw.vietnamplus,vn.
LYLUAN CHI'NH TRI-So 5/2019
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QUdCTElen ciia eac quy ehi sd, quy giao dich hoin ddi (ETF) vi eae chien luge giao dich dua tren dinh lupng da lim gia tang miic dd nguy hiem cua su giin doan thi trudng, Ong Kolanovie ehi ra ring: suy giim thanh khoan tren thi trudng chung khoan My hien vin d khoang 2/3 dudi miic trudc khiing hoing. Tinh thanh khoan trgn cac tbi trudng thu nhap cd dinh da xiu di do cac ngin hing dang ddng mdt vai trd nho han nhu cie nha sin xuit thi trudng. Ong einh bao su suy giim thanh khoin tren tbi trudng tii ehinh toin cau la nhin td ed the trd thinh mpt tinh ning ehinh kich ddng cude khiing hoang tigp theo"^',
Ba la, Cue Du trir Lien bang My (FED) ting Iii suit va cude chign thuang mai giiia My vdi Trung Qudc cung ed thg ki'eh ddng eudc khung hoang sip tdi. Trdn thue tg, cie chuygn gia eiia Ngan hang My (Bank of America) da canh bio ring, lai suit tang cd thg chim ngdi cho cude khiing hoang tii chinh toan ciu mdi. Trong nam 2018, thi tnrdng chiing khoin ciia eic thi trudng mdi ndi rat sdi ddng do FED tang lai suit de ciing cd ddng USD. Theo eic nhi phin tich, rinh hinh the gidi hien nay rat gidng vdi nhung gi da xiy ra 2 thap nien trudc khi cae nha dau tu d at riit vdn khdi cie thi trudng mdi ndi. Bank of America coi chinh sich bio hd eiia My la mdi de dpa ldn ddi vdi su dn dinh kinh te the gidi, Cude chien thuong mai gay ra nbtrng tdn that ldn cho thuang mai qude tg, inh hudng ddn gia ca va khi nang tiep can cac sin pham trong chudi cung ung, dieu niy gay tdn hai cho nen kinh le loin eiu, Sau hon 10 nam, ke tir nim 2008, nguy co mdt cude dai suy tiioai lai manh nha. Chuyen gia phin tich dau tu ky cuu cua My, dng Mark Mobius, ngudi da cd nhieu nam kmh nghiem d cac qudc gia dang phat trign cho ring: chign tranh thuong mai
chi ii man khdi dau eho khiing hoing tii ehinh, Mdt cude khiing hoing tai chinh tren pham vi toin the gidi dang dan xuit hien.
Bdn la, nguyen nhin ddn tir ci nhan Tdng thdng Donald Trump va chinh sich ciia My.
Tdng thdng Donald Trump dang la nhan vit ehinh khien trat tu thg gidi thay ddi. Nhiing thay ddi niy dang lim lung lay "niem tin" cua the gidi khi dng DonaJ Trump dang timg buac thuc hien cac cam kgt cua minh Ii nit My khdi cie hiep dinh loan cau ma nude nay timg thuc day, nhu: Hiep dinh Paris ve ehong bien ddi khi hiu; Hiep dinh Thuong mai tu do Bae My (NAFTA); Td ehiic Thuang mai the gidi (WTO);
eting nhu dit cau hdi ve" vai trd eiia Td chiic Hiep ude Bic Dai Tay Duong (NATO)... Ben eanh dd, chinh sich thuong mai cling rin nhieu khi nang sg tiep tuc dupe Tdng thong Donald Trump trign khai trong thdi gian tdi, bdi dng coi diy la bien phip bio dim Ipi ich cho ngn kinh id My vi cting li ehia khda eho eo hdi tai die cu. Bdi vay, kmh te toan eau ed the cdn hiing chiu nhung cu soe mdi khac nghiet ban trong nim 2019.
Ngoai ra, cdn nhting du bao cd the lim biing nd eudc khung hoing mdi. Thu nhatla no cong vi no thuong mai dang d miie bio ddng. Theo cac chuyen gia, cd rat nhieu nguyen nhin dan tdi mdt cupe khiing hoing mdi. Ngudi ta cd thg khdng thiy nhung trudng hop phi sin eic ngin hing nhu trudc diy, khi xiy ra cupc khiing hoang nim 2008, nhung ro rang ng cdng dang ting khiing khigp ke ci d My, Anh, Nhit Bin, Italy vi gid li My Latinh.., Qua trinh tich luy ng cdng khdng the dimg lai thi tit yeu se tdi lue
"phit nd". Thuhaila tinh trang mit long tin eua cac nhi dau lu vi cudi ciing la vi cie cdng ty trong linh vue cdng nghe mdi va cac id chuc tii chinh phi ngan hang khdng tuin thu cie quy
LYLUANCHINHTRj-So 5/2019
m
tic ciia thi trudng. TJiuba, khdng it chuyen gia lo ngai ring, "kha ning phdi hpp" de iing phd vdi cac nii ro d i trdndn khan higm nhat tren thi tnidng ehinh tri qudc tg hien nay. Trgn cie dign dan da phuong nhu G20, hay Dign dan Hpp tic Kinh tg chau A - Thii Binh Duong (APEC) hoac nhom 07..., ngudi ta khdng cdn thiy dugc nhigu phigu ddng thuin vd viee phdi hpp chinh sach. Hau qua la, khi nen kinh tg di vao mpt ehu ky dinh trg, cd thg xay ra trong n i m tdi, cae qudc gia khd dieu phdi dupe mdt ddi sich chung, vi nhtmg ring bude rieng trong timg nude. 6 thdi digm hien tai, da cd mdt cupc khiing hoing niem tin - sir gia tang cua ehii nghia din tiiy d nliieu ndn kinh tg lien tien kem theo nhung cang thing chinh tri gia ting. Viee mat niem tin vao kha ning cua cac n h i hoach dinh chinh sach trong viee q u i n Iy nen kinh te se tao ra nhung i p luc niy. Vi vay, ngoii rin ro suy thoai, se edn cd them rui ro vi thigu su phdi hpp qudc te.
Nhu vay, sau ban 10 nam ke tir n i m 2008, nhirng bai hgc ttr cupc khiing hoing tii chinh van cdn ven nguyen gia tri. Cupc khiing hoang ngcong d i cho thay: khdng ed ngoai le khung hoang np eho bat ky md hinh kinh tg vi n h i nude nao, ke c i cac tap doin v i cudng qudc kinh te hang dau thg gidi. Na cdng nhu mdt cin benh hOi tu cua nhung ke hd trong q u i n ly dau tu cong, vung tay chi tidu ngin sach v i hiu qua cua nan quan lieu, tham nhung. Viec xu ly np cdng doi hoi su phdi hgp hii hda giira ca chg, ehinh sach ciia Nha nude v i ea che thj trudng, eoi trpng tinh ddng bp v i chti y den tinh 2 mat eiia cac giai phip ehinh sich, ddng thdi duy tri ddng ILTC tang trudng kinh tg va b i o dam an sinh xi hoi; da dang hda va phdi hpp hieu q u i eic nguon lire trong nude va qudc te trong quan ly phat trign.
Thue tg np edng tren thg gidi dang dit ra yeu eiu ddi hdi chinh phti eic nude eiing nhu edng ddng qude tg ein cap bich khdng che v i giii quyet. Nhiing khdi np cdng ctia eic ngn kinh tg Idn mdt khi vuot khdi tim kiem soil, se trd thanh nhting "trii bom" tin p h i eic nen kinh te ndi rigng vi day kinh tg thg gidi ndi chung vio nguy ea khung hoing. Cie ehinh phii mudn trinh vien einh den ldi dd can giai quygt cie van de co b i n hien nay trude khi qua mudn G
(1) TTXVN; "Ng quoc gia cua My vot len muc ky luc 22.000 ty USD", http://thoibaotaichinh vietnam.vn.
(2), (4) Minh Diic: "Tmng Qudc: Rui ro no cdng tiep tuc gia ling", http;/ /tapchitaichinh.vn.
(3) Thien Hi (theo Economic Times): "Ng cong Trung Qudc tang chdng mat", https://motthegioi.vn,
(5) Diep Vu: "Kinh te Trung Qudc 2018 tang trudng cham nhat 28 nam", http;//vneconomy.vn.
(6) Khdi Nguyen: "Ng cdng niu chin nhigu nen kinh te", Bao Nhan Dan dien tir, http: / /nhandan.com.vn.
(7) TTXVN; "Npedng la vin de ding lo ngai doi vdi kinh tetoan cau" 02/12/2018
(8) Tran Nam Thi: "No cdng d cac qudc gia Chau A mdi ndi lang le vugt 50% GDP", https://viemam- biz.vn.
(9) Bich Lien: "Tdng d i m ddc IMF canh bio ng cdngdcac nude Arab tang cao", http://ewn,co.za (10) Minh Bich (theo The National Interest): "No cdng tren the gidi; Cugc khung hoang tiep theo?", https://baomoi.com,
(11), (12), (13), (14) DangAnh (1TKVN/Viemam+):
"Kinhte the gidi tiem an nguy cosau thap ky khung hoing tai chinh", https; / /www,vietnamplus.vn.
LV LUAN CHINH TRj-So 5/2019