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TS. NGUYEN THI KIM THANH Vien trudng Vien Chien lugc Ngdn hdng
Trong hoach djnh va thuc thi chinh sach ty gia khong chi don gian la pha gia dong tien de dat dirge muc tieu tang xuat khau\ nhat la doi voi nen kinh te Viet Nam cb nhieu dac thii rieng. De thuc hien chinh sach pha gia dong ngi te, cac mat igi va hai cua pha gia phai dugc xem xet va can n h k mgt each ky luong dua tren tat ca cac khia canh cija nen kinh te; phai dam bao nen kinh te da co du cac dieu kien de co the phat huy tot mat tich cue va han che dugc nhung mat tieu cue cua viec pha gia. NhUng dieu nay da giai thich vi sao, vol mgt dgng tac don gian la dieu chinh ty gia cong bo len cao ma NHNN khong thuc hien .
V
dn de ma bat cu ai cd kidn thirc ve kinh te cung nhan thirc rd lac ddng ciia ty gid den ndn kinh te theo ly thuyet la, ty gia hdi doai tac ddng dd'n tang trudng kinh te thdng qua cac nhan Id ciia san xudt (vd'n va lao dgng), ddu tu va tang nang sudt lao ddng, didu nay duoc phiiii anh qua muc tang tnrdng thuong mai qudc Id. Ddng thdi, ty gia hdi doai thay ddi ciing lam thay doi mirc gia tuang dd'i ciia hang hod va dich vu bang ddng tien trong nudc va ddng tidn nudc ngoai. Do dd, ty gia se cd anh hirdng nhai dinh ddii tang trudng kinh te va dn dinh vi md, iilufng mifc dp dull lufd'ng phu ihiioi' nhiiu vdo ea cdu hdng xiidt-nhdp khdu, ddc diim thi lru'e)'ug Idi chinh vd vdo cachi ty gid difg'e dp dung Igi mdi cjiie'ic gia.Gifnli vi vay, ty gia la mdt cdng cu quan ly vT md rdt quan trgng ciia chiiih phii cac nudc, va khi .sir dung cdng cii nay trong quan ly vi md, cd hai \';iii de qu;in trgng ma cac nha hoach dinh chinh sach cac nude deu phai xem xet khi quydt dinh c o che dieu li;inh ty gia (on dinh. dieu chinh timg budc hay pha gia), dd la xem xet lac ddng chinh sach ty gia trdn hai klii'a canh \'T md \'a \'i md. Xet ve
khi'a canh vT md, mdt chfnh sach ty gid cdn phai dugc nhdn manh dd'n tdm quan trgng ciia vide thidt lap mdt cdi neo rd rang va dang tin cay nhu mot nhan id ctia chid'n luge chfnh sach nhdm dn dinh mirc gia trong nude va on dinh thi trudng tai chinh.
Vd khfa canh vi md, chfnh sdch ty gia cdn phai dugc nhdn manh tdm quan trgng cua vide duy tri kha nang canh tranh qud'c te ciia nen kinh Id', dam bao mdt vi the can can thanh toan manh, theo dd chfnh sach ty gia
gan vdi cac bidn so vd tang trudng kinh te.
Ddi vdi thuc te cua Viet Nam, cd 5 dac diem kinh te vd thi trudng tai chinh cdn dugc nhan manh xem xet trong cdc quydi sach ve ty gia, dd la:
Thu nhdt, ndn kinh te Viet Nam dang trong giai doan phdt tridn ndn cd nhu cdu Idn ve nhap khdu thidt bi may mdc de doi mdi cdng nghd va nhap khau cdc nguydn, vat lieu san xuat cdc san phdm tidu diing trong nudc va xudt khdu. Trdn thuc te, nhidu mat hdng san xudt trong nudc phu thudc vao nguydn vat lieu nhap khdu. Theo so lieu thdng kd eua Tong cue Thdng ke hien nay khoang 90% long gid tri hang nhap la nhap thidi bi may mdc va nguydn, vat lieu sdn xudt. Vi vay, vide tang hay giam gia tri nhap khdu se phu thudc nhidu vao chu ky tang trudng kinh te hon la ly gia hdi dodi.
Bdng 1: TY TRONG CAC MAT HANG XUAT KHAU CHU YEU CUA VIET NAM
Thuv san Gao Dau tho Cao su
Go va san pham go Det, may
Giay dep Dien tii, mav tinh
2005 8.50%
4.34%
22.92%.
2.44%
4.71%.
14.91%.
9.32%
4.47%.
2006 8.49%.
3.30%.
21.02%.
3.21%.
4.81%
14.65%.
8.98%.
4.47%
2007 7.84%.
3.00%
17..^2%.
2.89%
4.89%
16.09%
8.19%
4.."10%
2008 7.2.'^%
4.61%
16.61%.
2.54%
4.42%
14.48%
7.47%
4.30%
2009 7.43%.
4.70%
10.97%
2.12%
4.5 ICv 15.91%
7.10%
4.90%
9 - 2010 6.66%
5.03%
7.14%.
2.76%
4.68%.
15.61%.
7.02%.
4.84%
Nguon: Tong eiie Thdng ke'
Bang 2 2005
31.2
; TONG SO D U N O N U O C NGOAI SO vOl GDP (%) 2006
31.4
2007 32.5
2008 29.8
2009 39.0 Nguon: Be) Tai chinh
K i n h te v a Dit bao So 20/2010
NGHIEN CCrU - TRAO DOI
Thu hai, trong ca cau hang xuat khdu ciia Viet Nam chii yd'u la hang ndng thuy san, san phdm tai nguyen, nhu ddu thd, cao su... Thdm vao dd,
•trong cdu thanh cac mat hang xuat khdu, nguydn lieu nhap khau chid'm ty trgng dd'n 70% la gid tri hang nhap khau. Mat khdc, xudt khau ciia Viet Nam ciing nhu cdc nudc khac chiu tac ddng rat nhidu ctia cac ye'u to nhu: Tliue xudt khdu, mire gia ca hang hoa trong nirdc va nudc ngoai, nang suat lao ddng ciia nganh hang xuat khau, co cdu hang xuai, chat lugng va mire do da dang hod chiing loai, cdng lac tid'p thi. xiic tid'n thuang mai... Trong co cau hang xuai khdu ciia Viet Nam thi dau thd, hang del may, thuy san va gao chid'm ty trgng tuang ddi Idn (khoang gdn 40%), ma gia tri xuat khdu cua cac mat hang nay chii yeu dua vao kdt qua ciia hoat ddng san xudt va khd nang chid'm ITnh thi trudng qudc id hon la ty gia hdi doai. Do vay, mot su giam gia VND khdng chac da lam tang cudng kha nang canh tranh ciia hang xuat khdu. Bdi nang luc canh tranh eiia hang xudt khdu chiu tac ddng bdi nhieu yd'u td dan xen nhau.
Bdn canh dd, nang luc sdn xudt hang hod thay the nhap khau vd hang hod dil tidu chudn xudt khau d Viet Nam ddu cdn ban che.
Tuy nhidn, phan tfch timg Finh virc xuat nhap khau cu the, nd'u VND Idn gia thi mdt sd linh vuc ciing bi anh hudng, nhung tuu chung lai la tac ddng khdng Idn. Chang ban khdi doanh nghiep xudt khdu hang ndng, lam, thuy san la nhdm hang chu yd'u san xudt d trong nudc chju tac ddng bat Igi ban dd'i vdi cac doanh nghidp san xudt hang gia cdng che bid'n, Idp rap linh kidn didn tir. Khdi khai thac ddu khf chiu bdt Igi khi VND Idn gia, nhimg do gia the gidi Idn cao, ndn tac ddng khdng Idn.
Thiif ba, lam phat ciia Viet Nam tuy da dugc kid'm soat d mirc dudi hai con sd, nhung tfnh on
Cdc mat Igi vd hgi cua phd gid phdi dugc xem xit vd cdn nhdc mdt cdch kv lucmg trudc khi thuc hiin chinh sdch phd gid ddng npi ti dinh chua cao, cdn tiem an nhirng
ydu td gay dp lire tang gid. Bdn canh dd, tham hut ngan sach keo dai, vay ng nudc ngodi de bii dap tham hut ngdy cdng tang.
Thictu, nen kinh te Viet Nam la nen kinh td' dang bi "dd la hod", trong sudt thdi ky cai each, mire do dd la boa tinh theo tidu chf ciia IMF cd giam ddn, song so vdi cac nudc trdn thd' gidi Viet Nam vdn la nudc bi dd la hod. Vdi mdt nen kinh td' dd la hod, nd'u cac bien phap chfnh sach tien td, ty gia hdi doai thid'u than trgng, khdng can nhdc dd'n tat ea cac khfa canh cua vdn de thi hau qua cua bdt on vT md la rat nang ne, khi dd thi khdng thd' ndi dd'n van dd tang trudng kinh td' cung nhu ddy manh xua't khau dugc:
Nhin vao didn bid'n thi trudng tien Id tir nhiing nam 1990 trd lai day cho thdy, vao nhirng thdi diem ty gid bid'n ddng, trdn thi trudng tien td cd sir dich chuyen vd'n tir tidn gui VND sang tien gui ngoai te tuang dd'i rd net. Nam 1997, nen kinh te bi tac ddng bdi khung khoang tai chfnh cua khu vuc Ddng A, khi dd Viet Nam budc phai pha gid VND de ban che nhirng tac ddng tidu cue ciia cudc khung hoang dd'n ndn kinh td' Viet Nam. Ddng thdi, dd thiic ddy tang
trudng kinh td' lai suat VND cd xu hudng giam, cdng thdm lai sudt trdn thi trudng qudc td'cd xu hudng tang nen xdy ra hidn tugng chuyen dich til VND sang USD, ty Id tien giri USD/long tien gui tang tir miic 33%
nam 1997 Idn mii'c 36,6% nam 2000 va 41% nam 2001. Nguge lai thi cae khoan vay bdng ngoai td/ tong du ng lai cd xu hudng giam tii miic 31,3%
nam 1997, xudng mirc 25,4% nam 1998 va 21% nam 2001. Mdt xu hudng nguge lai didn ra rd net trong nam 2007 va quy 1/2008 la VND cd xu hudng len gia do ddng vd'n nudc ngoai vao nhidu, lai suat VND tang cao do tac ddng cua ye'u to cung cdu va lam phat, va lai suat USD cd xu hudng giam do anh hudng ciia lai suat the gidi, thi lai xay ra hidn tugng chuyen dich tir tien gui ngoai td sang VND: Ty trgng tidn gui ngoai td/tong tidn gui tir miic 25,9% nam 2006 xudng 21,5% vao thang 4/2008, trong khi dd cho vay bdng ngoai td/tong du ng lai tang manh tir miie 21% nam 2006 Idn 23,25% vao thdng 4/2008.
Su dich chuyen tir VND sang ngoai td va nguge lai, cd the se gay mat can dd'i ngudn vdn va vdi sii dung vd'n cua cac NHTM, gay mdt an toan boat ddng ciia cac NHTM -
So 20/2010
20 Kinh te v a Dit bao
NGHIEN CLTU - TRAO DOI
mdt su dd vd cua mdt ng:ui hang cd the la ngdi no cho sir bdt dn kinh le vT md trdm trgng.
Thir nam, them \'ao dd, tir nam 2007, Viet Nam chfnh thuc trd thanh thanh vidn ciia WTO. mdt bidu hidn rd net nhdt ngay sau khi hdi nhap, dd la ddng \dn nirdc ngoai chay vao nhieu. ap lire lam phat gia tang. Ciing nhu hiiu hei cic lurdc khi iiidcira hdi nhap, Viet Nam dang phai ddi mat vdi hien tugng "E5d ba bai kha thi".
Dd la, khi ddng vd'n nudc ngoai vao nhidu, dd on dinh ty gia NHNN mua ngoai te, qua dd gay dp lire lam phat, vice kiem soat ddng vdn theo qui dinh ciia Phdp lenh Ngoai hdi thi Viet Nam da tir do hoa giao dich vang lai, cdn cac giao dich \'dii chira dugc lir do lio;ui loan nhung da ndi long mdt each tuang ddi. Theo ly thuydi nay, vdi mot tai khoan vdn md, mdt qudc gia khdng thd dai ducic cimg mdt liic 2 iiiiic lidu on dinh lam phat va dn dinh ty gia (ty giii mue tieu). Cac nd lire Uing lai suai de lam giam ap lire lam phat thi ddng thdi cung lam tang kha nang hut cac ngudn vd'n tir ben ngoai. Vi vay. ty gia lai dugc nang len, nhirng dieu nay lai lam suy yd'u muc tidu ciia cac NHTW ve ty gia hdi doai.
T;ic ddng hai chieu ngirgc nhau ciia chinh sach nay da tac ddng manh trong mdi trucnig hien tai. Dd'i vdi cac thi trirdng mdi ndi, nai ma thi tardng tai chinh va tien td cdn kem phat tridn, thi hien tugng "bd ba bat kha thi" la van dd diic bidt nghiem trong. Vide giai quyei hop ly 3 niuc tieu \i md nay. dd'i vdi mdi qudc gia kh;ic nhau thi cd cac phan img khac nhau. Vl dii nhu liiai Lan va Colombia da lira chgn ap dung kiem soat eac ngudn \'dn di vao cae nude nay (tiic la bd muc lieu thir 3 trong
"bo ha bai kha thi"). Trong khi dd thi Nga lai cho phep nang gia ddng Riip de lam giam ap lire \'e lam phat.
\ d i nhiing dac diem \'a linh hinh kiiili tc. licii te nlnr \av. Giinh phii
va NHNN da phai can nhdc, tfnh loan than trgng trong didu hanh ly gia. nhai la khi ma nen kinh te vdn phai d;mg dd'i mat vdi nhirng lac ddng ciia khiing hoang tai chfnh va su\' thoai kinh te loan edu ciing vdi nhihig yd'u kem ngi tai ciia nen kinh te. da lam cho nen kinh le phai dd'i phd \'di siJ tang cao ciia lam phat.
tham hut can can thirong mai Idn va ddng \d'n ddu tu nude ngoai ed xu hirdng dao chieu trong nam 2008.
Tir thuc te nay, trong nam 2009, 2010 Chfnh phii da coi muc tidu dn dinh kinh te vi md dirge dat len hang dau de darn bao cho nen kinh Id tang tardng ben \'ung. Qiiiih phii da nhan thirc rd. chi cd on dinh duoc kinh le
\T md thi mdi thiic ddy dugc lang truong kinh te ben vung. Chfnh vi vay, ma cac bien phap chfnh sach vT md va vi md theo su chi dao ciia Chi'nh phii deu hirdng tdi muc lieu dieu hanh trdn. Kei qua dat dugc ciia kinh te vT md 9 thang nam 2010:
Lam phat duoc kiem soat d mirc 6,46% so vdi thang 12/2009; Uing larong kinh le dat 9 thang nam 2010 udc tfnh tang 6,52% so vdi 9 thang nam 2009, trong dd quy I tang 5,83%; quy 11 tang 6,4% va quy III tang 7,16%. Day la mirc tang kha cao so vdi miic tang 4,62% ciia cimg ky nam trude; tham hut thuong mai d mirc 16,7% long kim ngach hang hoa xuat khdu, da khang dinh muc lieu dieu hanh va eac giai phap vT md ciia chfnh phii la diing hudng, trong dd chi'nh sach ly gia cd vai trd rat quan trgng trong on dinh vT md thdi gian qua cung nhu hien nay.
Cd the ndi. iiidt ndn kinh le thi trirdng hdi nhap qud'c te phai dira tren nen tang the che kinh Id thi trirdng theo nguyen lac tit do hod eac hoat ddng kinh Id- thuong mai va dugc hd trg bdi cac thd che chinh tri tuong thich la rat cdn thiet, song phai ed nhung budc di. Id trinh cu the dd dam bao sir dn dinh vT md. Vdn de lira chgn co che dieu hanh tien td, ca ehe dieu hanh ty gia nao la thi'ch hgp
trong qua trinh hdi nhap kinh le ludn la nhung \'ifii dd hdc biia. Sir lira chgn sai lam rai cd the dan dd'n sir bat on tidn le. bat dn kinh le \T md. Trong tinh hinh hidn nay. NHNN nhan mmh vai trd ciia Vy' gia nhu mgt cdng CII qiuui trong dd dn dinh \T md \a dn dinh thi trirdng tai chfnh la rai diing hudng. Vdi mdt co che dieu hanh ty gia khdng che bien do va dieu h;uih than trgng ciia NHNN hien nay la giai phap huu hieu nhdt dd dn dinh kinh td vT md, thiic day tang trudng kinh le ben vung.
Tuy nhien. trong dai ban. khi ndn kinh le da dat diroc nhung dieu kidn nhai dinh, nhu liem lire tai chinh ciia qudc gia da dii manh; thi tardng tai chfnh phat trien day dii \'a v'an hanh on dinh; tinh trang dd la hod trong ndn kinh te dugc kidm soat mirc thap; lam phat d mirc dn dinh; Co cdu xuai nhap khdu ed sir thay doi can ban, theo hudng xudt khdu cac mai li;uig tinh che, ly trong xuat khau cac mat hang thd giam, gia tri hang xuat duoc hinh th;uih chii yd'u bang nguydn, vat lieu trong nude thi vide dieu hanh r>' gia se nhaii manh idni quan trgng ciia ty gia la cdng cii hd trg tfch cue trong vide cai thidn can can thuong mai. tang kha nang ciuih tranh trong xuai khdu, tir dd dam bao tfnh ben virng ciia can can thanh loan ndi ridng va tang trudng kinh te ndi chung. •
Tiii lieu tham khao:
- Bde> cdo lliue'rng iiic'ii e iui NHNN Iff ndm 2004-2009
- Bdo cdo cdc van de lifei chevi, ngdy 10/6/2006 ciui IMF
- Ludi Ngdn hdng Nhd iiifde- ndm 1997, 2010
- Thdng tin trin Irang W'ch ciia Ngdn hdng Nhd iiudc
- Thdng tin trin treiiig U'c/) eiia Tdng llie Thdng ki
- Ty gid hdi dodi vd ide nguyin ly kinh te- ca hdn: Khudn khd phdn lich ciui IMF.
Kinh t e v a Dit bao So 20/2010 21