QUAN HE QUOC TE
Y NGHIA DjA CHIEN LlTOTC CUA BIEN DONG DOI von c u e DIEN QUAN HE QUOC TE
Tom tat: Bien Dong la mot khong gian ma a ha Tay ciia Thai Binh Dicang, ndm giua trung tdm cua true Bdc Nam tic Bdc circ xudng Nam circ vd ndi kit giira Thdi Binh Dirang vd An Do Duong. Ddy la nai co ngudn tdi nguyen thien nhien ddi ddo, phong phii mang dim ndng chien hfcrc, nai tap trumg cdc tuyen hdng hdi quoc ti quan trong nhdt thi giai, nai tap trung ddn so khong Id ciia cdc nen kinh ti vT dgi vd ndng dong nhdt thi ky XXI vd do vdy, co vi tri dia chien luac ve qudn sir vd an ninh. Bdi viit phdn tich y nghia chiin luac ciia Biin Dong doi vai cite dien quan he qudc ti hien nay
Tir khoa: Bi^n Dong, Trung Qu6c, Dia chien lirgc. Cue dien quan he qu6c t l
1. Oac diem dia ly Bien Dong Bien Dong nSm a vi tri trung tam ciia Dong Nam A, nai qui tu cac cu-ong qu6c s6 mpt the giai ve dan so va lanh tho. Bien Dong CO dien tich uac tinh khoang 3,5 trieu km^. Nhirng van de cua Bien Dong khong phai a cho rong hay hep, ma la dia hinh va tiem n5ng ve mpi mat ciia no. Hien chua c6 thong ke chinh xac so lugng cac dao a khu vuc nay vi kho phan biet giira cac dao, dao san ho vong va da ngam, trong do nhieu dao chim chi dugc nhin thay khi thuy trieu xudng thSp. Co so lieu dua ra tong so dao la 190, trong khi mgt nguon khac neu con so len tai 400 dao da, da ngam va dao, tham chi CO tai lieu noi len tai 650. So dao co nguai a rk it, chi dao dgng tu khoang 48 den 50 dao.
Ly do chilm giii cac dao nay co nhieu y
nghTa bai mgt s6 dao c6 thi d6n trii lau dai, song a mgt so dao san ho chi co thi co bang chirng ve su co mat ciia con nguai va cho den nay van dugc ggi la "co nguai a". Hien tai, Viet Nam sa huu 27 dao va dao san ho;
Philippin chiem 8 dao a phan phia Dong trong tong so 53 dao bai yeu sach; Trung Quoc chiem 9 dao (co thong bao con s6 dao Trung Quoc chiem chi la 7) trong yeu sach toan bg Bien Dong; Malaixia chiem 5 dao trong tong yeu sach 11 dao; Dai Loan chilm 1 dao trong yeu sach giong Trung Quoc'.
* TSKH, Khoa Qu6c tl hpc, Trudrng D^ii hpc Khoa hpc xa hpi & nh5n vSn Hi NO!
' Bai viet ciia giao su Leszek Buazynki, Vien nghien ciru quan he quoc te, Trucmg dai hpc quoc te Nhat Ban trong tap chi "Nam Today" (An Dp), ban dich: http://www.
vanhoanghean.com. vn/nhung-goc-nhin-van-hoa/nhin-ra- the-gioi/1063-an-ninh-bien-dong-va-giai-phap-thuc- te.html.
Theo tap chi Indian Defence Review cua An Dp, so ra gan day, Bien Dong bao gom hon 250 dao nho, dao san ho, b3i cat ngam, dp sau bien trung binh 250 met, nhung tai quan dao Trudng Sa dp sau thay doi nhanh va tdi gan rSnh Palawan thi xuong den hon 5.000 met. Day bien chua da
NGHltN Cdra O O N Q B A C A. S6 4(146) 4-2013
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Y nghTa dja chinh tri cua Biln Dong dang dugc nhin nhan rat khac nhau, gay tranh cai trong giai hoach dinh chien luge, chinh sach va chuyen gia quan he quoc te va an ninh.
Hau qua thuc te ciia su bat dong nhan thuc nay da dua den nhimg phat ngon va hanh dgng khong giong nhau khong chi a cap do quoc te, ma con giiJa cac ca nhan ben trong mgt nuac vai nhau, tham chi giira cac chinh sach ciia mgt chinh phii trong cac thai diem khac nhau, tao nen cai ma chiing ta co the ggi la "nan dl Bien Dong". Giai quyet dugc
"nan dl Biln Dong" la chia khoa dl giai quylt mgt bg phan cot loi ctia he van de quan he qudc tl hau khiing hd 11/9/2001 khi ma trung tam quyln lire thi giai chuyen djch han sang khu vuc Chau A-Thai Binh Duong.
Ddc diim ddu tien: trung tdm ddn so the giai. Biln Dong la mgt khong gian ma d bd Tay cua Thai Binh Duong, nam giua trung tam ciia true BSc-Nam tir BSc c\rc xudng Nam cue va ndi kit giiia Thai Binh Duong va An Dg Duong. Cd 8 qudc gia va mdt thuc thi tucmg duong nim ven bd vung bien nay, bao gdm Trung Qudc, Dai Loan, Viet Nam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Brunei va Philippines. Day la nai tap trung dan sd khdng Id cua cac nin kinh tl thi giai vT dai nh5t va nSng ddng nhit thi ky XXI, noi 1,35 ty ngudi Trung Qudc, gin 600 trieu nguoi Ddng Nam A va 1,1 ty ngudi An Do trao ddi
granite, dd bidn chat c6 sinh vi trung sinh. Trong d6 chi c6 mpt dao \& niii lira, cdn lai toin bp cic dao khic dugc t90 nSn tir cic ran san ho. Khdng c6 dpng vat ban dja ngoai trir loii chim dieu vi mdng bien. Xem:
http://vietnamnet.vn/vn/chinh-tri/tuanvietnam/103799/an- do-san-sang-doi-dau-voi-trung-quoc.html
cac ngudn tai nguyen sdng cdn va cac loai hang hda trong khu vuc va tren toan cau.
Dgc diem thir hai: nguon tdi nguyen thien nhien doi ddo phong phti mang tiem ndng chiin luac. Sd dT cac qudc gia tren deu ddi chu quyln ddi vdi phan ldm hoac mdt phan nhd ciia Biln Ddng trudc het vi day bien cd tru lugng dau dugc udc doan tir hang chuc ti din hang tram ti thung va hang nghin ti met khdi khi tu nhien. Gidi nghien cuu ciia Trung Qudc tinh ring Biln Ddng dang chua trong ldng nd khoang 130-230 ty thung diu hoac hom thi. Cac nghien cuu gin day cdn cho bilt tilm nang trir lugng "bang chay" - ngudn nang lugng cho tuong lai thay the dien hat nhan - d Biln Ddng cung hit sue ldm. Tap doan Dau md Hai ngoai qudc gia Trung Qudc (CNOOC) cd kl hoach diu tu 350 ti nhan dan t? (54 ti USD) trong 5 nam tdi dl khai thac tai nguyen dau va khi tu nhien. TriJ lugng diu Idn nhu vay cd the giiip nin kinh tl Trung Qudc duy tri san xuat cho nin kinh tl tang trudng manh me trong nhilu thap nien, nlu hg chiem ddc quyen khai thac. Trong sd nay, CNOOC du kiln diing 30 ti USD dl khai thac va phat triln diu khi viing nudc sau^. Chien luge Bien ctia Viet Nam dl xuit nam 2007 cung dua ra nhilu sd lieu vl tilm nang dau khi va bang chay khdng Id d ca Biln Ddng ndi chung cung nhu quin dao Trudng Sa ndi rieng, lam CO sd cho chiln luge dat 55% GDP din tir biln kl tir nam 2020. Dilu dd cd nghTa la Biln Dong chua nhilu tilm nang nang lugng
^ http://vietnamnet.vn/vn/chinh-tri/70812/tq-trien-khai-gia n-khoan-khong-lo-o-bien-dong.html,http://vietnamnet.vn/
vn/chinh-tri/tuanvietnam/61019/hop-tac-tren-co-so-suc- manh-tai-bien-dong-html, Chdu Giang dich tit CNAS
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dau khi han bit ky khu vuc nao tren toan ciu, trir Arap Xeut. Dilu nay khiln mdt sd quan sat vien Trung Qudc ggi biln Ddng la
"Vjnh Persic thir hai". Ddng thdi cac ngudn Igi hai san cung hit sue da dang, cd trir lugng Idn. Vdi dilu kien khi hau ndng im thuan Igi cho nudi trong cac loai hai san qui nhu tdm hum, tao biln, ca, Biln Ddng da nudi sdng hang tram trieu ngudi sdng dua vao nghe danh bat ca va nudi trdng hai san.
Dd la chua ke tiem nang phong dien va dien thiiy trieu het sue kha quan trong chiln luge nang lugng xanh va sach trong tucmg lai.
Ngudi ta cung khdng thi khdng tinh din tiem nang du ljch biln va hai dao mgt khi Biln Ddng dat dugc trang thai hda binh va dn djnh lau dai. Tiem nang du lich biln nay ngay ca trong trang thai tranh chip khdng ngirng gia tang hien nay vin dugc Trung Qudc trien khai va quang ba, trudc hit la du lich tdi quin dao Hoang Sa ma Trung Qudc cudng chiem ciia Viet Nam lin gin nhit vao nam 1974. Nhu vay vi mat tdi nguyen, co the noi Bien Dong ciing giir vai trd dia chien lugrc ddi vdi cac qudc gia tranh chap chii quyen.
Dgc diem thir ba: Bien Dong tap trung cdc tuyen hdng hdi quoc te quan trong nhdt the giai.
Cac nha nghien cuu dia ly chinh tri danh gia rang the gidi cd tam hiem Id tu nhien quan trgng nhat, dd la Gibralta, Panama, Magellan, Malacca (vdi Sunda, Lombok), Bab el Namdeb, Hormuz, Borphorus- Dardanells va Suez. Ddi vdi tuyen hai trinh qudc tl (SLOC) di qua bien Ddng, cac hiem Ig Malacca (khoang 42.000 tau di qua hang nam), Sunda (khoang 3.500 tau) va Lombok
(khoang 3.500 tau) ddng vai trd cue ky quan trgng. NIU mudn tranh hilm Id Malacca di qua trung tam Biln Ddng van cd hai dudng thoat khac la eo Ombai (Ddng Timor) va Torres (Bic Uc). Day dugc coi la hai dudng thoat mdi de ndi An Do Duong va Thai Binh Duong mdt khi ca ba mit thit dja chiln luge nay bj phong tda, con dudng cung cip diu tir tay sang ddng ciia Nhat, Ddng Bic A va ca Tay Thai Binh Duong se phai di vdng qua eo Ombai, eo Torres hoac phai di vdng xudng phia nam Chau Uc dl di ngugc vl phia bic.
Viec chi phi cho dudng vdng dl tranh khdi nam diem nghen trong Biln Ddng se tang len gan hai lan tinh tir viing diu md Trung Ddng qua Tay Thai Binh Duong, dd la chua ndi den thiet hai kinh te gay ra cho viing Ddng Nam A.
Ddng A, Ddng Nam A ndi rieng va Chau A ndi chung la trung tam dan cu khdng Id nhat the gidi. Cac qudc gia, nhit la Trung Qudc, dang d giai doan biing nd kinh tl va la ddng luc ciia tang trudng toan ciu. Do dd viec chuyen chd hang hda trao ddi giira khu vuc nay vdi cac thi trudng khac tren thi gidi lam cho cac tuyen hang hai qudc te xuyen qua Bien Ddng trd nen vd ciing nhdn nhip.
Giir vai trd sdng cdn trong dd la van chuyen dau khi tir Trung Ddng ve Trung Qudc, Nhat Ban, Han Qudc. Cac nghien cuu cho thiy gan 1/3 tau thucmg mai the gidi dugc chuyin qua hai trinh Bien Ddng. Neu cac hai trinh tren Bien Ddng bi ach tac, thi cac tau thuong mai se phai di dudng vdng ra phia ddng cac dao qudc d Ddng Nam A, keo dai hai trinh nhieu nghin hai ly vdi nhieu riii ro ve thdi tiet, khi hau va dia hinh cung nhu nan cudp
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bien. Do dd miic do nii ro va chi phi cho nhien lieu va bao duong tau be se rat cao.^
Ddc diem thir tu: vi tri dia chien luac ve qudn sir vd an ninh.
Neu nhin rdng hem ra, thi ngay ca tai khu vuc ldng chao Bien Ddng ma quan dao Trudng Sa va cac viing nudc lan can la trung tam ciia tranh chap - cung khd cd nudc nao ddc chiem va khdng che dugc, ke ca Trung Qudc. Van de mau chdt d day la khoang each tir quan dao Trudng Sa d trung tam Bien Ddng den bd bien cua cac nudc bao quanh. Trung Qudc nim d vj tri xa nhat, bd bien cua dao Hai Nam each cac dao phia bic ciia quan dao Trudng Sa tdi 1200km. Cho du can cir hai quan ddng d Tam A di nira, thi vdi tdc do tren dudi 30 hai ly mdt gid, mgt tau chiln Trung Qudc can chay lien tuc trong hai ngay mdi cd thi khep kin hai trinh.
Trong khi dd, chi vdi cu ly chua din 400km, mgt con tau xuit phat tir Da Ning hay Cam Ranh ciia Viet Nam chi can mdt thdi lugng bing 1/3 da cd thi tilp can dugc dilm gan nhit d Trudng Sa. Hon nira, cu ly tir can cir chiln luge Cam Ranh din tuyIn hang hai qudc tl chi khoang 30 hai ly tao dieu kien cho Viet Nam hay bit ky lire lugng nao cd quyln sii dung hai cang nay nhanh chdng tilp can khu vuc can khdng che. Vi the cac cudng qudc ke ca Trung Qudc deu mo den mdt ngay dugc phep tiep can can cu Cam Ranh cua Viet Nam. Khoang each nhd nhu thi cung thuan Igi cho khdng quan xuit kich tir dit liln thuc hien cac tran khdng kich ciia may bay cudng kich (nem bom, phdng ten
lira) ma khdng can phai tiep dau tren khdng hay tram trung chuyen bang tau.san bay. Ay la chua kl viec Viet Nam cd the khdng cin tdi hai quan va tau chien vin cd the khdng che dugc Trudng Sa cua minh bing khdng quan va ten liia hanh trinh tam bin chi 400km (kieu Scud-4 cua Nga) xuat phat tir cac can cu ven bd bien keo dai hang ngan km ctia minh. Vi the mdi cd gia thiet rang danh Trudng Sa ciia Viet Nam bing quan syr thi de, nhung giir dugc Trudng Sa khdi cudc chien phan kich ciia Viet Nam mdi la chuyen khd.
Tinh chat hai mat nay cua dia ly Bien Ddng xet tir khia canh quan su - an ninh khien cho qua trinh chuyen ddng dja chinh trj tai khu vuc Ddng A ndi chung va Bien Ddng ndi rieng trd nen kjch tinh, khd ludng.
Trong dd da thay rd tinh dan ddc cua dai cudng Trung Qudc, tinh nudc ddi ciia Nga va tinh lien minh ciia sieu cudng My ciing vdi cac nudc nhd va cac cudng qudc cdn lai.
Vi the chiing ta cd the hieu dugc rang cang ngay cac ben lien quan tranh chap d Bien Ddng cang hanh ddng than trgng hom, bdt manh bao hom, tinh vi hon, ke ca Trung Qudc.
Do tat ca cac ben tranh chap chu quyen diu cd thai do quyet doan, nen Bien Ddng ngay cang trd thanh "tam chan" cua mgt chuyen ddng dja chinh tri lau dai, trong do cac sue manh chinh tri cd dien - tire sire manh quan su - va sire manh cua chii nghTa dan tdc cua cac ben tranh chap dugc day len den mdt mCrc do nguy hiem, nhat la tir phia Trung Qudc''. Vdi cam quan theo kinh
' Laurent Gamier: Giai quyit da phuong tranh chip Biln Ddng, http://vietnamnet.vn/vn/chinh-tri/tuanvietnam/726 59/giai-quyet-da-phuong-tranh-chap-bien-dong.html
* Tham khio y kien trong loat bii ve tranh chap Biln E)dng cua cic nhi nghien curu ngudi My thupc Trung tam
NQHllN O k l O O N G B ^ C (t, sd 4(146) 4-2013
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nghiem lich sir cac cudc chien tranh khu
\\fc, thi nguy co cudc chien dja chinh trj da phucmg dang dan hien hiJu va ngay cang rd net. Dieu nay la minh chimg cho djnh nghTa ndi tieng ve chien tranh cua ly thuyet gia kinh dien ngudi Dire Carl von Clausewitz:
Chien tranh la hinh thai tu ve cao nhat cua mgt dan tgc (nguyen van tieng Dure: Krieg als hdchste Form der Selbstbehauptung eines Volkes)^ Mdt each day du va rd rang hon, dng djnh nghTa: "Chien tranh la hanh ddng vu lire nhim budc ddi thii thuc hien y mudn cua chiing ta" (Der Krieg ist also ein Akt der Gewalt, um den Gegner zur Erfullung unseres Willens zu zwingen"^
2. Bien Dong chua dung moi xung dpt giu-a toan cau hoa va dja chinh tri hoa
Trong ky nguyen toan cau hda, khdng mgt qudc gia nao ke ca sieu cudng duy nhat la My cd thi don dgc tu minh giai quyet dugc cac thach thiic to ldm ma toan cau hda tao ra. D I vugt qua cac thach thirc dd, chi cdn each khdi ddng va dua vao cac lien ket da phuong, nhu cac lien minh va cac td chuc qudc tl va toan ciu. Ngay ban than van de ciia mgt khu vuc vdn da mang tinh da phucmg/da qudc gia va cd ve nhu chi thudc ph^m vi cua khu vuc, nhung vin ddi hdi phai dugc giai quylt tren cap do toan cau, toan cue. Cudc khiing hoang va chien tranh
nghiin cuv an ninh quoc gia mai - CNAS, bit dau tir bii Chiin lupc Biln Ddng mdi cua Trung Quoc, ban dich ciia Chiu Giang, tren http;//tuanvietnam.viemamnet.vn/20I2- 02-20-chien-luoc-bien-dong-moi-cua-trung-quoc.
'http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/CarI_von_Clausewitz.
' C. Von Clausewitz: Ve chien tranh (Vom Kriege). The COMPLETE German version originally published by DQmmlers Verlag, Berlin, 1832. http.//www.causewitz .com/readings/VomKriege 1832/TOC.htm.
viing Vjnh lan thir nhat, cudc chien Iraq.
Afghanistan, van de hat nhan Iran va Bac Trieu Tien, van de tranh chap va xung dot chii quyen tren Bien Ddng... deu la nhumg
"nan de" ddi hdi each tiep can da phuong va qudc te hda - nhumg hinh thirc xir ly khac nhau cua toan cau hda.
Dien bien ngay cang kjch tinh tren Bien Ddng cho thay cac tuyen hang hai qudc te thi hien ro ret mdi quan he xung dot giira todn cdu hoa \a dja chinh trj hoa. Trong khi My va cac qudc gia khac trong va ngoai khu vuc Ddng Nam A, trudc het la cac nudc xung quanh ldng chao Bien Ddng, mudn duy tri tu do thdng thuong tren cac tuyen hang hai qudc tl, thuc thi cac quyen chii quyen ddi vdi cac viing lanh hai, viing dac quyen kinh tl, qui che ve cac dao va bai da thudc quin dao Trudng Sa va Hoang Sa theo Cdng udc Lien Hgp Qudc ve Luat bien 1982 (UNCLOS) cung nhu duy tri trang thai dja chinh trj va ljch sir nhu vdn cd d day, thi Trung Qudc da va dang hanh dgng quyet doan nhu la chu thi duy nhat^. Tuy nhien ciing phai thiy ring "niit that" dja chinh trj d Biln Ddng khdng dl gi dugc khdng che bdi chi mdt quyln lire ngay ca khi dd la Trung Qudc, bdi vi Biln Ddng la mgt bien md cd nhilu nut thit khac nhau la cac eo bien chir khdng phai chi cd ldng chao Biln Ddng gi&a Hoang Sa va Trudng Sa ma Trung Qudc va cac qudc gia khac dang tranh chap vdi Viet
^ Xem: Shigeo Hiramatsu: China's Advances in the South China Sea: Strategies and Objectives", Asia Pacific Review, Vol. 8, No. 1, May 2001, tr. 40-50 (Trung Qudc tiln cdng tren Biln Nam Trung Hoa (Bien Ddng): Chiln lupc vi myc tieu); Ngucri dich: KiJ Quang Viet, tren. Viet- Studies - Tgp chi Thai dgi mai, sd 4 - thdng 3/2005.
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Nam. Neu Trung Qudc cd thi kilm soat chung thi nudc nay cd thi se giam bdt dugc sir phu thugc ciia minh vao eo bien hep va dl bj tan cdng Malacca cung nhu eo biln Lombok, Makassar va Sunda ma viec van chuyen nang lugng nhap khau tir Trung Ddng ve Trung Qudc cung nhu Han Qudc, Nhat Ban deu phai di qua. Cac eo biln nay may min la deu do cac qudc gia Ddng Nam A kiem soat, trudc het la eo bien Malacca do 3 nudc Malaysia, Singapore va Indonesia phdi hgp kiem soat. Tinh chat da phucmg, da qudc gia trong bao dam tu do thdng thuong d eo bien nay tu nd da phan anh Igi ich ciia toan cau hda cac khdng gian dja ly ddi vdi toan the gidi trong dd cd Trung Qudc.
Nhung dd cung la cai thdng lgng sin sang siet lai, bdp chet ke gay han ma kinh te vdn le thudc vao xuat khau nhu Trung Qudc.
Trai lai, vdi dia chinh tri hod, mdt hay mgt vai qudc gia tim each khdng che va dgc chilm cac nut that giao tilp toan ciu cung nhu cac ngudn tai nguyen cdng d cac khu vuc yit hiu ciia the gidi la chdng lai mgi xu hudng va hinh thai da phuong hda, qudc te hda. vin 6h then chdt nhit ciia viec dia chinh trj hda the hien d chd, do cac nhan td lich sir va dja ly, cac qudc gia thudng cd thuc lire khdng ddng deu nhau. Cd qudc gia la cudng qudc tim cd the gidi, lai cd qudc gia nhd be dang phat trien va tham chi mdi dang d nhOmg budc di chap chirng diu tien hgi nhap vdi thi gidi. Neu tranh chap va xung dgt Igi ich nay sinh trong pham vi mpt khu vuc cd tr^g thai bit can xiing vl sire manh giO-a cac qudc gia nhu vay, duong nhien sg nay sinh hai khuynh hudng tim gidi
phap, trong dd xu hudng "ddng cua bao nhau" - tuc dia chinh tri hda - thudng do qudc gia cd sue manh tdng hgp vugt trdi va cd sue chi phdi khu vuc de xudng; tham chi nudc nay cdn gat bd ca co che khu vuc hda hay da phucmg hda trong ndi bg khu virc- mdt hinh thai trung gian giura toan ciu hda va ban dja hda. Hg chi chap nhan co che song phuong, tuc "ndi chuyen tay ddi" vdi timg ddi tac nhd yeu hon minh. Cdn nhirng qudc gia nhd yeu thi de xudng each tilp can ngugc lai: Vi timg qudc gia nhd yeu nay bilt ring khdng the dat dugc Igi ich thda dang neu tranh chap dugc giai quyet theo co che song phuong do ddi tac cudng qudc ap dat.
Hg chi cd the dat dugc Igi ich thda dang khi hg dua vao sire manh ciia lien ket da phuong, nhat la lien ket vdi cac cudng qudc khac ben ngoai khu vuc tao ddi trgng hay can bang sire manh vdi cudng qudc khu vuc dang uy hiep hg. Vi the tai Dien dan Shangri-La 1-3/6/2012, Tdng thdng Indonesia Susilo B. Yudhoyono de xuat y tudng ve cau tnic dja chinh trj mdi ben virng cho hda binh trong khu vuc ma dng ggi la dia-chinh tri cua quan he hap tdc dang chuyen hoa khi cac qudc gia ciing tien vao ky nguyen Chau A Thai Binh Duong*.
Theo dng, dja chinh trj mdi dd phai dua tren try cdt dau tien la mdt chii nghTa khu vuc ma, manh me va nang ddng nhim chuyen hda mdt each can ban cac quan he dia-chinh tri mdi d Ddng Nam A. Tuy nhien, chu nghTa khu vyc md phai gan ket chat che vdi chu nghTa dan tgc lanh manh va coi ban sic
http://vietnamnet.vn/vn/chinh-tri/tuanvietnam/75254/bi en-dong—da-phuong-choi-lai"banh-truong-.html.
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khu vyc nhu la bd phan ciu thanh ban sic dan tpc cua qudc gia minh. Nhung trong khi tuong tac ve Igi ich toan ciu hda vd ciing manh me va bao triim nhu ngay nay thi ciu tnic dja chinh trj mdi ciia khu vuc phai dugc xay dymg tren mdt thi cdn bdng dong khdng chi do cac qudc gia trong khu vuc ma cdn do tuong tac cua cac cudng qudc ngoai khu v\rc. Duy tri dugc thi can bing ddng nay la nhan thirc quan trpng trong qua trinh xay dyng cac quan he ddi tac giira cac cudng qudc. Dieu dd cd nghTa la cac qudc gia vira va nhd se hudng Igi nhd qui tdc cdn bdng quyen lire ma nha nghien ciiu chiln luge My J. Mearsheimer tirng dua ra'.
3. Ket luan
Bien Ddng va Thai Binh Duong day sdng khdng cdn la dieu du bao, ma thuc su noi day hang ngay hang gid dang diln ra cudc canh tranh quyet liet ca ve sire manh cimg lan sire manh mem ciia cac qudc gia trong va ngoai khu vyc, cac nudc true tilp cd tranh chap lln cac qudc gia chi cd quyen Igi gian tiep ddi vdi viing bien nay. Nguyen nhan ciia tranh chap chii quyen tren Bien Ddng phan anh cac qui luat dja chinh trj ma trong thdi d^i toan cau hda, ngudi ta da tam thdi quen di bdi niem l?c quan ve mdt the gidi tran day tinh than hgp tac va cdi md ke tir sau khi birc tudng Berlin va Lien Xd sup dd. Qui tac dd la: Sire manh qudc gia trudc het dua tren su phat triln vl kinh tl, ma kinh te lai phu thugc vao cac ngudn luc tu nhien ma dat dai va lanh thd la ylu td nin tang, diing nhu ly
Luong Van Ke, Nhgp mon khu vuc hoc. Giio trinh dinh cho cic nginh Khu v\rc hpc vi Qudc te hpc, Nxb Dai hpc Qudc gia Hi Npi. 2011, tr. 116-119.
thuylt ciia nha ly luan dja chinh tri Due F.
Ratzel da neu ra vl "khdng gian sdng", vl
"mau va dit dai" ngay tir cudi thi ky XIX - diu thi ky XX.
Trong bdi canh Ddng A dang biing nd vl kinh tl, d Trung Qudc tir 30 nam nay, nhu cau ve ngudn luc tu nhien cho nin san xuit da pha vd mgi gidi han, mgi ky luc. Hom nira, ngudi Trung Qudc lai cdn mudn duy tri tdc do tang trudng kinh tl cao cho nhilu thap nien tiep theo dl biln Trung Qudc thanh mdt xa hgi kha gia va nudc nay thanh sieu cudng lanh dao khu vyc va thi gidi, thi nhu cau ve ve nguyen nhien lieu, vl thj trudng qudc te lai cang birc thilt. Trong khi dd, xung quanh Bien Ddng - viing biln mang tam chien luge toan cau - lai chi bao gdm cac qudc gia nhd, sure manh qudc gia het sire bat can ximg vdi Trung Qudc kl ca khi ca khdi ASEAN hgp lye vdi nhau. Do dd Biln Ddng da trd thanh vu dai cho cudc canh tranh ngay cang quylt liet giira cac qudc gia trong khu vyc va cac cudng qudc ben ngoai khu vuc nhim gianh quyen chilm hiru, kiem soat, khai thac. Trong cudc canh tranh quyet liet dd, thai do hanh xir ciia cac nudc lien quan cd nhieu khac biet do vj thi va tiem lye qudc gia chenh lech nhau. Viet Nam la mdt trong cac chii thi chii chdt trong cudc canh tranh khdng can sue nay. Bien Ddng giir vj tri sdng cdn ddi vdi tuong lai phat trien ciia Viet Nam. De giir virng dugc chii quyen cua minh tren Bien Ddng, Viet Nam khdng chi dua vao sire minh, ma cdn phai cd chien luge lien ket qudc te, Igi dung sue manh ciia thdi dai, nhung can ban nhat van la xay dung ndi luc, cd vu ldng yeu
NQHi£rf cdro O^NQ BIIC ft, s6 4046) 4-2013
Nghien cim khoa hpc
nudc, phat huy sire manh cua khdi doan kit toan dan tgc, tren dudi ddng ldng, sang tao mpi hinh thirc va nghe thuat toan dan bao ve td qudc nhu ta da lam trong cac cudc dau tranh bao ve va giai phdng td qudc trudc day. Cd le day la thu thach cudi ciing va quyet liet nhat ma dan tdc ta phai vugt qua.
TAI LI$U THAM KHAO
1. Allison, William Thomas, "My va viec xay dung trat tu quoc te mdi". Thong tin Nhung van dk Ly luan (phuc vu lanh dao), Hoc vi^n Chinh trj - Hanh chinh quoc gia Ho Chi Minh, so 3/2012, tr. 58-64.
2. Clausewitz, C. Von, Ve chien tranh (Vom Kriege), The COMPLETE German version originally published by Dummlers Verlag, Berlin. 1832, http://www.clausewitz.com/readin gs/VomKriegel 832/TOC.hUn.
3. Shigeo Hiramatsu, "China's Advances in the South China Sea: Strategies and Objectives", Asia Pacific Review, Vol. 8, No. 1, May 2001, tr. 40-50 (Trung Qudc tien cong tren Bien Nam Trung Hoa (Biln Dong): Chiln luge va muc tieu); Ngudi djch: Vu Quang Viet, Uen: Viet- Studies - Tap chi Thdi dai mdi. So 4 - Thang 3/2005.
4. Laurent Gamier, Gidi quyit da phucmg tranh chdp Biin Dong, http://vietnamnet.vn/
vn/chinh-tri/tuanviemam/72659/giai-quyet-da- phuong-tranh-chap-bien-dong.html.
5. Sd Thu Long, Canh Tan (chii bien), Hoa Ky, Trung Qudc vd Thi gi&i, Bic Kinh, 2003.
6. Vu Hdng Lam, "Viet Nam trong thi gidi da cyc", VietStudies, thang 7/2006.
7. Mearsheimer J., "Vo chinh phu va CUQC dau tranh quyen luc", trong: Trudng D^ii hpc Khoa hoc xa hpi va nhan van - Ford Foundation: Ly thuyet va phuong phap nghien cuu quan he quoc te, Tai lieu djch, tr. 75-93.
8. Luong van Ke, "Cac qui tic sir dung siic manh tong hgp quoc gia", Tap chi Chdu My ngdy nay, 8/2012.
9. Luang Van Ke, "Cac he hinh chuyen dong dja chinh tri". Tap chi Nhirng vdn di kinh te vd chinh tri thi giai, s6 8/2012.
10. Lucmg Van Ke, "Chuyen dpng dja chinh trj d Biln Dong va lua chpn ciia Viet Nam", Tap chi Ly ludn chinh tn, so 10/2012.