Nghien cuu An Dp va Chau A. 56 12 - 2016
SV DIEU CHINH CHINH SACH DOI V d l KHU VVC CHAU A THAI BINH DU^ONG CUA THU TU^dNG AN DO
NARENDRA MODI
j^hihig cam kit ddi vdi khu vuc chdu A Thdi Binh Duang (CA- TBD) da trd thdnh mot phdn khong thi thieu trong chinh sdch ddi ngocii cua An DQ thdi ky hdu Chiin tranh Lanh. Sau han hai Ihdp ky trien khai, chinh sdch Hudng Dong - chinh sdch dfnh hinh sir tham gia ctia An DQ vdi khu vuc CA-TBD dd khong mang lgi kit qud nhu An Do mong mudn. Khd ndng vd vai tro chiin IUQC cua An DQ tgi khu VUC vdn bj hgn chl Vi thi sau khi len ndm quyin, Thu tudng An Do Modi da tiin hdnh diiu chinh chinh sdch ddi vdi khu vtrc CA-TBD nhdm mang lgi cho An Do vai tro chien luac tich cttc vd ndi bgt han. Bdi viit di sdu phdn tich nhdng nhdn 16 ddn din str diiu chinh chinh sdch ddi vdri khu vuc CA- TBD ctia chinh quyin Modi; nhirng uu lien chien IUQC vdi cdc ddi tdc chti chdt ctia An DQ trong khu vijrc vd dua ra mot s6 nhdn xet, ddnh gid budc ddu vi su diiu chinh cua chinh sdch ndy.
Tir lch6a: An Do, Thii tudmg Nadrenra Modi, chau A Thai Binh Duong, chinh sdch Huong Dong
Dieffng Thuy Hiin 1. Nhihig nhan t6 d i n den sir dieu chinh chfnh sich d6i \(n khu vye chau A - Thai Binh Dirong' cua An D§
Buoc sang thap nien thii hai ciia thg ley XXI, nhihig chuySn dich dia - chfnh trj v^
kinh ta sang khu vuc CA-TBD tiep tuc diln ra ngay ctog mgnh me va sau sic. Khu v\rc CA-TBD mOt mat \k khu v\ic kinh te ning d6ng nhdt the gioi, nhung mat khde cung \k khu vuc tiSm in nhiSu yeu t6 bat 6n, nhieu vin da an ninh ca truyan th6ng vd phi truyen th6ng dan xen ton tai, chua the giai quyat. D$c biet, Trung Qu6c khong ngimg gia tang sue manh trong khu vuc din den nhieu sir xao trpn chian lupc. Nhiau nudc ldm da tian hdnh difiu chinh chfnh sdch d6i voi khu vuc CA-TBD, trong do, ddng chii y nhat Id chfnh sdch "xoay tryc" ciia My.
Doi voi An Do, vfi pham vi dja 1^, tuy khong phai Id quoc gia thu^c Thdi Binh
* ThS., Khoa Quan h? qu6c t^ - Hpc vign Chinh tri khu vye III.
' Khu vye chiu A - Thai Binh Duong trong bii viet dugrc hieu dieo nghla hfp, bao gSm Ddng Bic A, Dong Nam A va phan ldn ciia Chau D?i Duong.
1
Duong Thiiy Hifin. Sir dieu chinh chinh sdch ddi vdi khu vuc chdu A...
Duong nhung day la khu vuc An Do co nhiing lpi fch kinh te va chien lupc. Tuong lai ciia An Dp khong tha tach roi voi tuong lai cua khu vuc nay. C6 Thii tuomg J.
Nehru timg nhan dinh: ''Thai Binh Duang chdc chdn se thay thi Dgi Tdy Duang nhu mot trung tdm ddu ndo the gidi. Tuy khong phdi Id mot quoc gia true tiip a Thdi Binh Duang, nhung An Do khong thi khong dong vai tro quan trong a <fd"'. Sau do, co Thii-tuong N.Rao ciing danh gid rdt cao vai tro ciia khu vuc CA-TBD d6i voi qud trinh hpi nhap vdo nan kinh ta todn cdu ciia An Dp: "Khu vuc CA-TBD co thi la tdm vdn bgt cho chiing toi budc vdo thi trudng thi gidl"'. Hien tai, CA-TBD Id khu vuc An Dp CO lpi the canh tranh \k thi truong, djch vu, lao dpng, tdi chfnh, cong nghe thong tin va c6 nhieu d6i tdc thuong mai, ddu tu Ion.
Khong chi vdy, khodng 55% t6ng gid trj thuong m?i ciia An Dp di qua eo bian Malacca toi cdc thj truong o CA-TBD^ Do d6. An Dp c6 nhiau lpi fch trong tdng cuong vai tro vd duy tri hoa binh, 6n dinh o khu vuc.
Ban canhd6, sy tdng cuong hifn dien ciia Trung Qu6c 6 Nam A - An Dp Duong
khu vvc von dupc coi thupe anh huong truyan th6ng cua An Dp, k^t hpp voi su quyet dodn ciia nuoc nay trong tranh chdp bifin gioi vdi An Dp da dan dfin su gia tdng nhgn thirc bj "bao vay chiln lupc" trong
= Din Aeo Trin THj Ly (2002), Sif diiu chinh chinh sdch Ooi ngogi ciia CQng hoa An DQ tit 1991 din 2000 Nxb. Khoa hpc x§ hoi. Ha Noi, tr.232
Avtar Singh Bhasin (2012), IndiaS Foreign Rehnons 2011 Documents, Geetika Publisher, New
^ ^ ^ 1 tr.65.
cpng d6ng chifin lupc An DQ*. Difiu ndy bupc New Delhi cdn thifit theo duoi mpt chifin lupc cdn bang bfin ngoai nhdm chong lai dnh huong cua Trung Quoc.
Trong boi canh moi truong an ninh, dja - kinh tfi, dia - chfnh tri 6 khu v\rc CA-TBD thay d6i nhanh chong va trd thanh noi h^i tu, dan xen lpi fch nhifiu tang nic ciia nhieu nudc ldn, dfi dinh hinh dupc mpt vai trd ldn hom vfi chinh tri, kinh te, an ninh... trong khu vuc, An Dp cdn phai cd chfnh sdch can du vd lifin kfit sdu hom vdi khu vye.
Thfi nhung, hon hai thdp ky trifin khai, dil chinh sdch Hudng Dong (Look East Policy) da mang lai cho An Dp mpt so ket qud nhdt dinh (An Dp da ky ket dupc nhifiu thda thudn thuomg mgi vdi cdc qu6c gia vd to chirc trong khu vye; trd thdnh thdnh vien ciia cdc CO che hpp tdc quan trpng ciia khu vuc nhu Diln dan khu vuc ASEAN (ARF), Hpi nghi Cdp cao Dong A (EAS), Hpi nghj Bp trudng Qudc phdng ASEAN md rpng (ADMM+), To chiic Hpp tdc Thupng Hdi (SCO), Hpp tdc A - Au (ASEM); tranh thii dupc nguon lyc tir nhifiu quoc gia trong khu vyrc dfi thiic ddy sy phdt trifin trong nudc...), nhung so vdi muc tifiu ldn md chfnh sdch ndy dfi ra (xay dyng vd md rpng dnh hudng ciia An Dp d khu vye CA-TBD;
han chfi dnh hudng ciia Trung Qudc; duy tri miic tdng trudng cao va dn dinh cua nen kinh tfi An Dp...) thi nhiing ket qud dgt dupc vln con han che. Vi thfi, An D$
dudng nhu van "diimg ngodi" nhieu van de C. Raja Mohan (2012), Samudra Manlhan: Sino- Indian Rivalry in the Indo-Pacific. Washington DC, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, U-.130.
Nghien ciiu An Dp va Chdu A. S6 12 - 2016
»
ciia khu vye. Nguyfin nhdn dupc cho Id "«fo thieu SW quan tdm chiiy mang tinh thuc ddy lien tuc vd cdc hdnh dong thuc hien con chua dil mgrdi" nfin gidi chifin lupc An Dp rat khong hdi long vdi cac kfit qud ciia chfnh sdch Hudng Dong'.
Do do, dfi tao ra tuong lai tdt dep cho An Dp nhu cam kfit ciia chfnh quyfin Modi khi lfin nam quyfin (5/2014) thi su ndng dpng ciia khu vye CA-TBD Id mot noi khdi ddu hdp din. Chinh quyfin Modi cho ring, nfiu khdng cd mpt nfin tdng kinh te vung chdc thi An Dp khd cd thfi ndi lfin thdnh mpt siic manh toan cdu. Chifin djch "Sdn xudt tai An Dp" (Make in India) dupc phat dpng dfi kfiu gpi ddu tu, tifip can thj trudng chau A rpng ldn, thiic diy sy phdt trifin kinh te An Dp dang gdp nhieu khd khan.
Nhu vay, tdm quan trpng ngay cdng gia tdng ciia khu vye CA-TBD doi vdi su phat trien ciia An Dp; siic ep tir cgnh tranh anh hudng ciia cdc nudc ldn trong khu vuc, nhat la tir Trung Qudc; va hifu qua khdng cao cua chfnh sach Hudng Ddng la nhihig nhdn to quan trpng thuc ddy Thu tudng Modi difiu chinh chfnh sdch ddi vdi khu vye CA-TBD. Sy difiu chinh dupc thfi hi?n thdng qua vi?c Thii tudng Modi thay the chfnh sdch Hudng Ddng ciia cdc Chfnh phii tien nhiem thdnh chfnh sach Hdnh dpng hudng Ddng (Act East Policy) vdo cuoi nam 2014.
Ngd Tri^u ll (2016), Chuyin thdm ba mt&c Dong A cua Thu mdng MoJi vd "Chlnh sich Hinh dong phia Dong" cua An Op (ban djch tieng Vi?t)", httpy cis.org. vn/article/729/chuyen-thani-ba-nuoc- dong-a-cua-thu-tuong-modi-va-chinh-sach-hanh- dong-phia-dong-cua-an-do-phan-1 .html
2. Nhihig uu tien chien lirgc vdi c^c doi tac chn chdt cua An Dp tai khu vuc CA- TBD dudi thoi Thu tudng Narendra Modi Cdt loi trong chfnh sach CA-TBD ciia Thu tudng Modi la chfnh sdch Hanh ddng phi'a Ddng. Muc tifiu chu yfiu ciia chfnh sach nay la lam sdu sic hom quan he kinh tfi vd lpi fch chien lupc ciia An Dp vdi cdc nudc trong khu vuc CA-TBD, nhdm thiic ddy tang trudng kinh tfi ciia An Dp, qua dd chdng lgi dnh hudng ngay cdng gia tdng cua Trung Qudc d An Dp Duomg va tdng cudng vai trd cua An Dp trfin todn cdu'. Dfi dgt muc tifiu. An Dp ddnh su uu tifin chifin lupc cao vdi cdc ddi tdc chii chot tgi khu vye nhu ASEAN, Trung Qu6c, Nhdt Bdn vd Australia.
* Vdi ASEAN, trfin nfin tdng ciia quan he Ddi tdc chifin lupc An Dp-ASEAN, An Dp tifip tuc nhdn mgnh vai trd "cdu noi"
ciia ASEAN tdi todn bp khu vye CA-TBD.
Trudc khi tham dy Hdi nghj d p cao ASEAN An D$ vd Hdi nghj Cap cao Ddng A tgi Myanmar (11/2014), Thii tudng Modi da phdt bieu: ASEAN Id "hgt nhdn"
trong chfnh sdch Hdnh dpng phfa Ddng ciia An Dp va la trung tdm -'gidc mo" vh mpt thfi ky chdu A, vdi nhiing ddc difim tifiu bieu la hpp tac vd lien kfitl Trong khi dd, trudc lap trudng quyet dodn ciia Trung Quoc ddi vdi nhihig vimg Idnh th6 tranh
Danielle Rajendram (2014), India's new Asia-Pacific strategy: Modi acts East, Lowy Institute for Intemational Policy, Australia, tr.4.
' Minh Ly, DSng Chinh (2014), An Dd: ASEAN Id hgi nhdn Irong chinh sach "Hanh dQng phia Ddng".
http:/Avww.vietnamplus.vn/an-do-asean-la-hat-nhan- trong-chinh-sach-hanh-dong-phia-dong/290822.vnp
Duong Thiiy Hien. Sudieu chinh chinh sdch ddi vdi khu -vuc chdu A...
chip tai Ddng Nam A, nhdt la Bifin Ddng, cdc nudc ASEAN ngay cdng mong mudn An Dp ddng vai trd cdn bang chifin lupc trong khu vye*.
ASEAN hi?n la ddi tdc thuomg mgi ldn thii tu cua An Dp'. Bfin cgnh dd, sau nhieu vdng ddm phdn, An Dp va ASEAN da kf kfit FTA vfi dich vu vd ddu tu vao ngdy 8/9/2014 (cd hifiu lyc tir ngay 1/7/2015).
Ciing vdi sy ra ddi cua Cdng ddng Kinh tfi ASEAN (AEC) cudi nam 2015, FTA An Dp ASEAN md ra cho hdng hda xudt khau ciia An Dp co hpi tifip can thi trudng rpng ldn cua ASEAN (vdi hon 620 trieu ddn). Khdng nhihig the, FTA An Dp ASEAN sfi md dudng cho Hiep djnh ddi tdc kinh te todn di?n khu vye (RCEP) md An Dp la thdnh vifin. Difiu nay rat quan trpng vdi An Dp vi An Dp khdng phdi Id thdnh vifin ciia APEC hay TPP. Nhd vdo RCEP, An Dp cd thfi gia tdng khdi lupng thuong mai vdi cac nudc trong khu vye se trd thdnh mpt phan ciia chuoi cung iing todn cau'"
D^ Cling CO vd phdt tri^n quan he ddi tdc chifin lupc vdi ASEAN, An Dp uu tifin tdng cudng ket noi vdi ASEAN. Tgi Hdi nghi Thupng dinh ASEAN - An Dp ndm 2015, An D$ tuyfin b6 chi 1 ty USD cho
^ Danielle Rajendram (2014), tldd, tr 8
The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (2016), India
20l5r"''^*°''''^°"''^°™*^'^'='''''°"^'^'"'
'° Rahul Mishra, From Look East to Act East- httpy/www.theasanforum.o>g/fTom-look.easMia«:
east-transitions-m-indias-eastward-engagement/
muc tifiu ndy" vd tgi "Doi thogi Dehli" lln thii Vffl (2/2016), An Dp ciing da cCing vdi cac nudc ASEAN tdp trung vdo chu dk:
"Kfit ndi: Xdy dyng con dudng hudng tdi tuong lai chung" vd "C^ng ddng kinh t^
ASEAN va An D^: Xay dung cdc chuSi gid trj khu vye"
Mdt ddng thdi khac cho thiy An 0 $ ngdy cdng can dy mgnh me hon vdo khu vye Ddng Nam A, dd Id, Tha tudng Modi va cac quan chiic cap cao trong chfnh quyfin ciia dng lifin tifip dfi cap d^n xung dot Bifin Ddng, khdng cdn gia thdi dp "th§n trpng" vd "dfi ddt" nhu trudc. Tgi H^i nghj d p cap Ddng A lan 10 vd Hpi nghj Cip cao An DO - ASEAN lln 13 (2015), An 0$
bdy td sy quan nggi vfi vln de tranh chip tai Bifin Ddng vd td rd l$p trudng iing hO an ninh, an todn, ty do hdng hdi; gidi quyet tranh chip bdng bi^n phdp hda binh dya trfin CO sd lu$t qu6c te; thyc hifn DOC, tien tdi ky kfit COC. Bfin canh dd, bit chip sy phdn ddi ciia Trung Quoc, Tong cdng ty Dau md vd Khf dot ty nhifin An D$
(ONGC) dd ky thda thugn hpp tdc v^ thdm dd mpt sd Id diu trong khu vye dang cd tranh chap d Bien Ddng vdi Vi?t Nam. An Dp cung tfch eye tham gia vdo Dien ddn hdng hdi ASEAN md rpng (EAMF), cdi thi?n hpp tdc qudn sy vdi Vift Nam, Malaysia, Myanmar vd Thdi Lan. Tuy nhifin, lgp trudng cua An Dp trong vln d^
Nguyin v o TCmg, DJng Cim Tu (2016), "Chlnh sdch Hanh ddng hudng Dong cia An Dd: Nhdn Id tic mg vi triin vpng 5 ndm Idf', http://cis.org. vn/article/1581 /chinh-sach-hanh-dong- huong-dong-cua-an-do-nhan-to-tac-dong-va-trien- vong-5-nam-toi-phan-1 .html
Nghien cira An Dp vd Chau A. S6 12 - 2016
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ndy vln cd su "can nhic" de khdng qua thdch thiic Trung Quoc.
Trong ASEAN, Viet Nam dupc danh gid Id mpt trong nhimg nhan to mgnh nhit trong chinh sdch Hdnh dpng phfa Ddng ciia An Dp vd mdt try cdt quan trpng trong chfnh sdch CA-TBD ciia An Dp. Hon hai ndm qua, cdc quan chiic eip cao ciia An Dp nhu Bd trudng Ngoai giao Sushma Swaraj;
Tong thdng Pranab Mukherjee vd Thu tudng Modi d^u da dfin thdm Viet Nam. An DO nang d p quan he vdi Viet Nam lfin tam Doi tac chian lupc toan dien vdo thdng 9/2016. Mdi ddy, thdng 9/2016, An Dd tuyen bd eung cdp cho Vift Nam gdi tfn dyng quoc phdng mdi trj gid 500 trieu USD. Ngodi ra. An Dp cam ket hd trp Vi?t Nam hi?n dgi lye lupng qu6c phdng an ninh thdng qua ddo tgo, tap trdn chung vd phdt trien cdng nghi$p quoc phdng, d§c bi?t Id sdn xult cdc vii khf hgng nhd ciing nhu de ngd khd ndng bdn ten liia BrahMos cho Vi?t Nam. Vi?c An Dp tfch eye hpp tdc quoc phdng vdi Vift Nam cho thdy, chfnh sdch CA-TBD cd sy difiu chinh ddng ke tir vi?e chii yeu tgp trung vdo chfnh tri, kinh tfi ddn md rpng sang ca ITnh vye qudc phdng - an ninh.
Vtri Nhgt Bdn, trong chfnh sdch CA-
TBD eiia chfnh quyfin Modi, Nhdt Bdn la quoc gia dupc An Dp ddc bi?t quan tdm.
Thdng 9/2014, Thii tudng Modi chpn Nhgt Bdn ldm noi vifing thdm diu tifin khi tien hdnh cdc chuyan cdng du nude ngodi. Hi?n An DO coi Nhdt Bdn la mOt trong nhihig
"d6i tdc c6t ldi" vd quan h? song phuong giiia hai nudc dupc nang d p lan tam "Ddi
tdc chifin lupc ddc bi|t vd todn clu" ndm 2015. An Dp dgt dupc nhifiu thda thugn hpp tdc quan trpng vdi Nhdt Bdn. Vh qu6c phdng - an ninh. An Dp vd Nhdt Bdn dgt dupc .Thda thugn khimg vfi hpp tdc vd chuyfin giao cdng nghfi qu6c phdng. An DO cd thfi nhap khlu cac trang thi^t bj qu6c phdng eua Nhdt Bdn, trong dd cd the cd ed may bay dd bd Shin Maywa US-2. Thdng 6/2016, Nhgt Bdn da tham gia vdo cuOc tdp trgn thudng nifin Malabar giOa My vd An Dp. Mat khac, ca hai nudc dfiu dang cd nhimg mdi quan nggi chung vfi an ninh, nhdt la tinh hinh cdng thing tgi Bien Ddng vd Bien Hoa Ddng do cdc hdnh dOng quy^t dodn ciia Trung Qu6c...
Dii vdy, chfnh sdch eiia An DO vdi Nhgt Ban hi?n vln dang cdn ton tgi nhihig hgn chfi. Hai nudc van Id nhthig d6i tdc kinh tfi nhd ciia nhau'^. Do dd, de hudng tdi mpt mdi quan hf phdt tri^n hom vdi Nh§t Bdn, chfnh quyen ciia Thii tudng Modi cln thiic day mgnh hon niia cdc ITnh vye ndy.
* Vlii Trung QuSc, An Dp xdc djnh Trung Qu6c vira Id ddi tdc vd vira Id doi thii cgnh tranh chifin lupc ddi hgn chii ylu. Do dd, mOt m^t. An DO chii truong phdt triln quan he "Ddi tdc chifin lupc vi hda binh vd thjnh vupng" vdi Trung Qu6c; mdt khde, chfnh quyen ciia Thii tudng Modi cd nhung hanh dOng cimg rin hon vdi Trung Quoc.
Ndi bat nhu vln de tranh chip bifin gidi giiia hai nudc. Khi Trung Quoc xdm nhgp vdo Ladakh cua An DO, trong chuyen thdm
Embassy of hdia (2016), India-Japan Economic Relations, http://www.indembassy- tokyo.gov.in/indiaJapan_economic_relations.html
Duong Thiiy Hian. Sir dieu chinh chinh sdch doi vdi khu -vuc chdu A..
An DO ciia Chii tjch Tap Can Binh (9/2014), Thii tudng Modi da phat bifiu:
"Ngay cd sir co nho nhu vdy co thi dnh hudng ldn nhdt den moi quan he, gidng nhu chi dau rdng mot chdt co thi ldm te liet todn bo ca thi"" Qudn dOi An DO da nhieu lln dupc huy ddng dfin bifin gidi.
Trudc ehfnh sach Trung Qudc tang cudng quan he vdi edc nudc ldng gifing cua An Dp, An Dp cfing da ddp trd lgi bing nhiing hdnh dpng tuong ty.
Quan he giiia An Dp va Trung Qudc ngdy cdng trd nfin phiic tgp vd nhay cdm do hdng logt vln dfi bit ddng cln gidi quyfit.
Song, dil mudn dii khdng, Trung Qudc cung Id mOt nudc khdng the tach rdi trong chfnh sdch CA-TBD ciia An DO. An DO vln phdi cdn bing giOa thdi dO ciing rin vdi nhihig lpi fch kinh te ciia An DO trong moi quan hf vdi Trung Quoc.
* Vdi Australia, hon hai ndm qua, quan h? An DO Australia phdt trien mgnh me chua timg cd. Cyu Thii tudng Australia Tony Abbott Id nhd lanh dgo nudc ngodi diu tifin thdm An Dp sau khi Thu tudng Modi Ifin nim quyen. Vd, thdng 11/2014, Thii tudng Modi eung trd thanh nhd lanh dgo diu tifin cua An DO tdi thdm Australia sau 28 ndm bj gidn dogn. Trong mdt bdi phdt bieu trudc Qudc hOi Australia, Thii tudng Modi nhdn mgnh: -Chung toi xem
Australia Id mot ddi tdc quan trQng trong moi linh vtrc trong uu tien quoc gia cua chting tor va ''Australia se khong con a ngogi^ vi. md Id a trung tdm trong ldm nhin cua An DQ"^\ Hpp tdc qudc phdng - an ninh Id IThh vye ndi b$t trong quan he An DO - Australia. Hai nudc dd dgt dupc Hiep djnh khung vfi hpp tac an ninh vao thdng 11/2014 vd tien hanh tgp trdn chiuig song phuong diu tifin vdo thdng 9/2015 (se difin ra 2 ndm 1 lan)'^ Ben cgnh dd, hai nudc ciing da dgt dupc Thda thudn hpp tdc hgt nhdn ddn sy, cho phep Australia cung d p urani eho An Dp vd hpp tde trong luih vye ndng nghifp, gido due vd khoa hpc cdng nghe...
Kfi tir khi Thii tudng Modi lfin nim quyfin dfin nay. An DO khd "bsin rpn" vdi hdng logt edc hogt dOng dl tham dy sdu hon vao khu vye CA-TBD. An DO tdng cudng kit noi vdi cdc quoc gia phfa Ddng thdng qua sy kit ndi ve dja 1^, thi chl, con ngudi vd kl cd nhihig phfip thii vl mjt ngogi giao chfnh t r j "
3. MOt s6 nhan xfit bwdc din v l chfnh sdch CA-TBD cQa Thu tirdng An D?
Narendra Modi
h.«://tim«ofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ia/Chin^^'"^ •
«ttfe-body-Modi-tells-Xi- Jinping/articleshow/42940337.cms
Prime Minister's Address to the Joint Session of the Australian Parliament (18 November 2014) http://www.mea.gov.in/SpeechesStatements.htm?dtl/2 4269/Pnme+Ministers+Address+to+the+Joint+Sessio n+of+the+Australian+Parliament+18+November+201 4
' ' T h e Indian Ministry of External Affairs (2016), rr",, ~ Australia Relations, http://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/Austral ia_Jan_ENG_2016.pdf
'^ Ameya Paratkar, Pooja Ranade (2016), "Acting East" in India's Foreign Policy, http://www.thedialogue.co/acting-east-indias-foreiEn- policy/
Nghifin ciru An DO vd Chfiu A. S6 12 - 2016
TTtu nhdt, tuong lai cua An DO dupcxem Id se gin lien vdi tucmg lai ciia khu vye CA-TBD nfin khu vuc ndy trd thdnh trpng tam tu duy chiln lupc ciia An DO dudi thdi Thii tudng Modi. Chfnh sdch ddi vdi khu vye CA-TBD dupc difiu ehinh xult phdt tir nhifiu ly do nhu da dk cap, trong dd, ddng chii y nhit ehinh la sy gia tdng dnh hudng mgnh me ciia Trung Qudc trong khu vye. Vdi khodng 55% qud cdnh thuong mgi ciia An Dp qua eo bien Malacca, An DO khdng mudn nhin thay tuyfin dudng van chuyfin quan trpng nay bj thdng trj bdi mOt doi thii cgnh tranh chiln lupc" Vd, nlu An
^DO_duy tri dupc anh hudng tgi khu vye 3D, CO hOi Id trd thanh cudng quoc todn cau ciia An DO sfi rOng md hon.
Thu hai, tuy mdi dupc triln khai song
chfnh sdch mdi ddi vdi khu vuc CA-TBD ciia An DO bude dau da dgt duoc mOt so kit qud tfch eye. An DO da ldm sau sic ddng kl quan hf vdi cac ddi tac nhu Nhgt Ban, Trung Qudc, Australia, va ASEAN, trong dd cd Vift Nam. Chfnh sdch ndy gdp phin lam tdng gid trj chiln lupc ciia An DO trong trgt tu dang djnh hinh d chau A, ndng cao vi tri cua An DO trong cdc co chl an ninh khu vye cung nhu trong chiln lupc ciia cdc nude" ldn, ASEAN vd phdn ndo kiem chl anh hudng ciia Trung Quoc d Nam A va An DO Duong. NhOng kit qua dgt dupc dang din logi bd hoai nghi ciia ede qudc gia trong khu vye CA-TBD ve mOt An DO "mge do choang lanh dgo chau
A" ma khdng dua ra bit ky "y tudng ldn"
mdi me ndo va hiem khi cam kit nguon lyc cho muc tifiu dfi ra'* An DO dang timg budc budc ra khdi sy "rut re" chiln lupc tie hda nhgp vdo khu vye CA-TBD mOt cdch mgnh me hon"
Thd ba, chfnh sach CA-TBD cua An
DO dudi thdi Thii tudng Modi dupc dilu chinh tren nhifiu phuomg difn tir cdc lihh vye thdo lugn, chi dgo chifin lupc cho din viec thfi hifin quylt tdm theo duoi myc tifiu chien lupe da phuong difin bao gdm cd kinh tfi, chfnh tri, an ninh vd kl cd quyin lyc mfim . Miic dO can dy chiln lupc ciia An DO vdo khu vuc sau rOng vd ch§t chfi hon.
An Dp ludn gin cdc ylu td dja - chiln lupc, dja - chfnh trj cua khu vye vdo cdc gid trj lpi ich qudc gia vd chuyfin tir chii ylu can dy kinh tl vd ngogi giao sang can dy ca cdc moi quan hf an ninh, quoc phdng trdi rOng khip An DO Duomg - Thdi Binh Duong.
Thu tu, vifc thyc hifin chfnh sdch CA-
TBD mdi vira cd thuan lpi lln thdch thuc.
Thuan lpi la, sy quylt tam vd kifin djnh lgp trudng ciia chinh quyen Modi. Tuy nhien, chinh sdch ndy eiing dang phdi doi mdt vdi khdng it thdch thiie. MOt Id, hgn chl vl siic manh kinh tl sS ldm cho An DO gidm khd ndng cam kit ngudn luc triln khai cdc dy an hpp tde vi khdng thi cgnh tranh vdi nhilu nudc ldn khde. Hai Id, An DO phdi
" David Scott (2013), "India's Role in the South China Sea: Geopolitics and Geoeconomics in Play"
India Review. Vol 12, No.2, tr.55.
Deepa M. Ollapally (2014), "Identty and Strategy in bidia's Asia-Pacifc Policy", Joint V.S.-Korea Academic Studies, Vbl.25, p. 136-149, tr. 137.
" David Brewster (2012), India as an Asia Pacific Power, Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group, Australia, tr.l60.
"" Ngo Tri?uLl (2016), tldd.
Ducmg Thiiy Hien. Su dieu chinh chinh sdch doi vdi khu vuc chdu A.
doi mdt vdi nhilu vln dk phiic tgp d khu vye Nam A cln phdi uu tien, ndi bat Id quan hf vdi Pakistan. Do dd, su tham gia ciia An DO vdo khu vye CA-TBD trong chimg myc nao dd se cdn tiiy thuOc vao tinh hinh khu vye Nam A. Ba Id, canh tranh chifin lupc giiia cac nudc ldn d khu vye CA-TBD hgn chfi sy md rOng anh hudng ciia An DO. Nhdn td kim chl diu tien khdng cho An DO md rOng dnh hudng d khu vuc CA-TBD din .tir Trung Qudc.
Trung Quoc tdng cudng quan hf vdi nhilu nudc ldng gilng vd nhilu ddi tdc quan trpng cua An DO trong khu vye de "bd tay, bd chdn" chiln lupc ciia An DO.
Tdm lai, kl tir khi lfin nim quyin din nay, Chfnh phu ciia Thu tudng Modi theo duoi mpt ehiln lupc tham gia chdt che hon vdi khu vye CA-TBD. Diu vdy, dl trd thdnh mOt cudng quIe CA-TBD vd ddng vai trd chiln lupc todn d u ldn hon, ro rdng, Chfnh phii Modi phdi theo dudi mOt mdi trudng In djnh trong khu vye trudc khi cd thi tim cdch md rOng dnh hudng ciia minh xa hon niia. An Dp vln d n nhifiu dOt phd mgnh vd khd ndng kinh tl dl tiln sdu hon n&a vdo khu vye trong bdi cdnh Trung Quoc dang gia tdng cdc sire fip kinh tl, chfnh trj, an ninh lfin An DO ngdy mOt mgnh mfi hon.
Tdi lifu tham khao
w'•••'^'')'^L^'"S^(2<"^)' ^ f^h chiin
vT) ^:J^t "v "" """^ ^^ '^^ «-B
vr?t), http://nghiencuubiendong.vn/nghien-
2. Ameya Paratkar, Pooja Ranade (2016), Acting East" in India's Foreign Policy http://www.thedialogue.co/acting-east-indias- foreign-policy/
3. Danielle Rajendram (2014), India's new Asia-Pacific strategy: Modi acts East, Lowy Institute for Intemational Policy,' Australia.
4. David Brewster (2012), India as an Asia Pacific Power, Routledge, Taylor &
Francis Group, Australia.
5. David Scott (2013), "India's Role in the South China Sea: Geopolitics and Geoeconomics in Play", India Review Vol 12 No.2, p.55. • '
6. Deepa M. Ollapally (2014), Identty and Strategy in India's Asia-Pacifc Policy, Joint U.S.- Korea Academic Studies, Vol.25, p. 136-149.
7. Hemant Shivakumar (2016), "India must waste no time Acting East", http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/03/26/india' -must-waste-no-time-acting-east/
8. Nga Trifu Ll (2016), Chuyen thdm ba nu&c Dong A ciia Thu tudng Modi vd "Chinh sdch Hdnh ddng phia Dong" ctia An DQ (bdn dich tieng Vift)", http://cis.org.vn/article/729/
9. Rahul Mishra, From Look East to Act East: Transitions in India's Eastward Engagement,
http://www.theasanforum.org/from-look-east- to-act-east-transitions-in-indias-eastward- engagement/