PHAN TfCH & DQ BAO KINH
GIA VANG THE GI61 THANG 11/2011:
DLf BAO DIEU CHINH TANG
N G U Y I N THI BICH HOA
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Chl nhdnh tgi Thdnh ph6 H6 Chi t^lnh
Trung tdm Thdng tin vd Dd bdo kinh t^ xd hdl qudc gia
In September of 2011, price of gold struck a new record high of 1,920.63 USD an ounce and then plunged deeply to 1,532.62 an ounce.
Closing at 1,623.53 USD per ounce, world gold lost 11.1% of Its value over its opening price of 1,825.68 USD per ounce. In first hvo weeks of October, worid goid price recovered due to strong purchsing power but In the third week, goid price came back to Its falling trend.
Using technical analysis, November is likely to witness upward adjust- ment when gold price at first shaft fait to around 1,532 USD per ounce and then bounce back to 1,632 to 1,692 USD per ounce provided that gold price in October fatis to dosing price of 1,570 USD per ounce.
In domestic market, goid price fluctuated in line with worid price and was about 1 million VND per taei higher than world price despite the Government's price stabilization policy such as permission to selling out gold applied to five banks and SJC In the context of burning gold mar- ket At present, investors show their cautious attitude since they used to witness goid skyroketing and plunge. However, interests in gold remains high under the context of gloomy gtotiat economic perspective and per- sistent high inflation rate in domestic market.
1. Dien bien gia vang the gidi thang 9 va nhufng tuan dau thang 10/2011
Gia vang thi gidi thang 9/2011: Biin ddng manh hai chiSu tang lap ky luc mdi trUdc khi gi^m siu
Thdng 9/2011, ky Igc mdi da dape thiet ldp t?i 1.920,63 USD/ounce vd ngay sau dd gidm rat sau xudng mQc thd'p nhd't 1.532,62 USD/ounce.
Neu nha thdng 8 / 2 0 1 1 , gid vdng the gidi tdng m^nh chQa tQng thd'y vdi bien dp 303 USD khi gid tQ mQc thd'p nhd't 1.608,83 USD/ounce len mQc 1.911,58 USD/ounce thi thdng 9 / 2 0 1 1 , mQc tgt gidm len tdi 388 USD. Ddng cufa tai 1.623,53 USD/ounce, gid vdng t h d gidi dd mat 1 1 , 1 % vd gid tri so vdi gid md cQa 1.825,68 USD/ounce trade d d . NhU vay, trong thdng 8, gid tdng len bao nhieu thi thdng 9 gid lai gidm bd'y nhieu vdi nhQng bien ddng khdn iQdng ta/dc nhieu thdng tin trdi chieu tQ nen kinh te todn c i u .
Thdng tin ve gdi QE3 (gdi ndi Idng djnh iQging l i n thQ 3) cd the dQgic tung ra trong tUdng lai vd tinh hinh lao ddng M y dQpc dQ bdo xa'u di da khien nhu c i u d i u tQ vdo vdng tang cao. Ben canh d d , Quy SPDR
khdng ban vdng; Iran chi 13 ty USD dd mua vang dg trQ; tinh hinh np edng chdu Au va suy thodi kinh (e toan c i u gdy lo ngai cho gidi dau tQ dd khien xdy ra tinh trang thdo chay khdi thj tradng chang khodn va cdc thj tradng hang hda khde de tim den tdi sdn daoc cho la an todn; cac ngan hdng tmng QOng chau Au mua rdng vdng nhdm giam bdt sii le thudc vdo d d n g USD... la nhQng nguyen nhdn khien cho kim lo^i quy nay cd sQ tdng gia dpt b i e n . Khdng nhQng vdy, thong tin Thgy Sy ddnh tut gia ddng tien so vdi ddng EUR; Ngan hang Trung QOng SNB cua Thuy Sy quy d j n h ty gid san cua ddng npi te la 1,20 CHF/EUR khien ddng Thuy Sy ma't 8 % so vdi ddng EUR va sil can t h i ^ p nay bj mpt so nhd kinh te ehl trich gidng nhQ viec in tien cua nQdc ndy de gidi quyet van de ng( cdng, da khien gid vang tang manh va lap d?nh.
Gid vang ba't ngd lao ddc lien tuc ngay sau khi thie't lap ky luc 1.920,63 USD/ounce, ve 1.792,58 USD/ounce, mat 130 USD chi trong 2 ngay do dong USD tang gid va lan sdng chd't Idi cua cac nhd dau tQ. Y6u c i u tang t^ l§ ky
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THONG TIN & Di; BAO KINH TE - XA HQI Stf 70 (10.2011)quy vdi cde hop ddng mua vdng eua ede quy d i u tQ eung khien ddng tien dd vdo vang bj han ehe lai. Gid vdng eung ha nhiet nhanh chdng trade nhQng thdng tin tieh egc nhan dape tQ chau A u . Tda an DQc cho phep Qudc hpi DQc ed tieng ndi Idn hpn trong ke hoaeh gidi cQu cdc nQdc trong khdi
Eurozone dang rOi vdo khung hodng no vd bde bd nhQng don kien nham ngan edn hdnh ddng ndy. Thi trQdng chQng khodn tdng diem manh khi sdn iQdng edng nghiep thdng 7 cua DQc tang manh hon dg dodn, khidn niem tin nen kinh td Idn nha't chau Au sdm thodt khdi tinh trang suy thodi dape cung c d them.
Cdc thdng tin td't, xa'u trdi chieu dd khien gid vang trdi, sgt that thadng. Ljch sQ gid vdng thadng tang vao thdng 9 trong 23 nam trd lai day da khdng lap lai md ngUpe lai, gid vang da ed mpt thdng gidm sau khdng ngd. Sau khi lao ddc giam sau, gia vdng dd hdi phue vd ddng cQa t a i 1.623,53 USD/ounce, sdt mQc gid md cQa 1.61 5,65 USD/ounce cua thdng 8 ta/dc dd.
Gia vang the gidi nhu'ng tuin dau thang 10/2011: Dao ddng hai chieu, tang trudc, giam sau
Gid vdng thdng 10/2011 md cQa tai 1.629,43 USD/ounce. Hai t u i n d i u , gid vang tang phgc hdi trade Ige mua bat ddy cua eae nha d i u tg khi gid gidm sau. Tin FED se tung them gdi ndi Idng djnh lapng QE3 de kich thich kinh te dd gay dp iQc tang gid vang; nd Ige cQu Hy Lap cua cdc nQdc chau Au khien cde nhd d i u ta ed sQ lae
quan hon; Thu tQdng DQc vd Tong thd'ng Phdp cam ket se tdi cap vdn cho ede ngan hdng ehdu Au; Xldvakia bd phieu thdng qua viec tang cQdng quy dn djnh tdi ehfnh chau Au (EFSE); G20 va IMF xem xet tang khd ndng eho vay cua IMF nham gitip ngan chdn khung hodng np; Trung Qude sdn sdng cd'p hang chge ty USD hd trp khu vgc ddng tien chung Euro, ddi lai, cae nUde ndy phdi cdi cdch ngan sach, cat gidm chi tieu.
Tuy nhien, den t u i n thQ 3 cua thdng 10, gid vang tiep tgc gidm vd dd roi xudng mQc tha'p 1.603,72 USD/ounce. Khd nang ddng cQa thdng 10 se Id thdng gidm, nhQng khdi lapng vd bien dp se thap hpn rat nhieu so vdi hai thdng trade dd vd vang v i n duo'c xem Id mdt noi tru an an todn khd thay ddi trong tinh hinh kinh td edn nhieu bat dn hien nay.
2. Thong tin anh hUofng tdi gia vang the gidi thang 11 / 2 0 1 1 : DQ bao dieu chlnh tdng
Cac yd'u td' ning dd da tang cua gia vang
Da tang cCia gid vdng v i n ludn tiem an do vdng van dang giQ vai trd Id ham tru i n an todn trong ede eude khung hodng tdi chinh. Thdng thadng, gid USD ngUpe chieu vdi gid vang, tuy nhien, trong bdi cdnh khung hodng hien nay vdi nhieu thdng tin trai chieu, gia vang va gia USD khdng nha't thiet theo quy luat nay. Khi khung hodng np cdng tai chau Au xa'u them eung vdi sQ gidm gid cua ddng USD dien ra ddng thdi, gid vdng ed cP sd tang gid vQng chac hPn; nhu c i u kim loai quy tai A n Dd, Trung Qude van tiep tgc d mQc cao; Dubai vd An Dp npi cd nhu c i u mua bdn vdng rat Idn dang ed xu hQdng chuyen tQ vang trang sQc sang vdng mieng do tin rang vdng Id mpt tdi sdn d i u tQ Idnh manh hPn bat ky khoan d i u ta ndo khde; Bdlivia eho phep Ngan hang Trung aong mua vdng tQ ede nhd sdn xud't dja phQOng vdi gid the gidi nham nang cao lUpng dg trQ vang; nhieu qudc gia dang phat trien khde tren todn the gidi eung dang chuyen hQdng sang tich trQ vdng.
Stf 70 (10.2011) THONG TIN & D i ; BAO KINH TE - XA HOl
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PHAN TICH & DU BAO KINH TE
Ngadi dan Tmng Qudc yCm t 6 xu hadng (Mu IU v.i lie h tra vdng, nay dQng trQde tinh hinh khung hoang tai ehinh ngdy mot lan rdng l-'i < •'ng quan lam Idi vi(?( nay nhidu hPn. Ngan hang ThQOng mai Ndng nghi?p
Bde Kinh da tridn khai A T M ban vdng <l..u l i r n dd dap Qng nhu c du nay, kich thich nhu cau mua vang khidn gid vdng vd lau (ldl se tidp tgc tang. H U M , Trung (}u(n la lur.A l.('U thu vang Idn ihQ 2 tren thd gidi vd dQng ddu vd sdn xuat vdng. Tinh hinh lam phal (') Tmng ()U(H mar du da ha nhipt xu(';ng 0 , 1 % trong thdng 9, nhang dp lgc gid (a khicMi kd hoat h ndi Idng ( hinh s.u h lidn !(• Irong ihdi gian sdm cda Bd( Kinh bj chdm
lai.
Dd tang gia cua vdng chu ycu clo nha ddu ta lac quan vdi cde kd hoach Qng cQu hd thong ngdn hdng chdu Au, tang thanh khodn cho he thdng ndy bdng ( a c h sQ dgng tidn tQ quy binh dn tai chtnh ehdu Au va chi tiln eho cac ngdn hang. Mac du bicn phdp ndy da giup ndn lai chinh c hau Au thodt khdi cOn chao ddo, nhUng cung gay ra sQ m i l gid cii.i uOn gia'y, ldm rdi loai (hj IrUdng tai chinh vd thue d i y vai iro " h i m ^ t r u I n an loan" cua vang. C ac phan tich cP bdn ddnh cho vdng v,=m cac ky lac quan; nguc^n cung han che trong khi nhu c i u lai vapt xa se kich thich gid vdng l i m tdi cdc ngddng ( ao hdn. Mot sd to chQc vd chuyen gia tren the gidi nhan djnh gid trj cua vang khdng phg thuoc vao tin dgng cua bat ky c h i n h phu hay lo chQc tdi chinh ndo va vdn ky vong gid vang iC'n iron 2.000 USD/ounce trong dai han, khidn m e m lin vdo kim loai quy nay tang len trong gidi dau IQ todn thd gidi.
Cac yd'u td' ung hd da giam cua gia vang
Np cdng tai ehdu Au hodc nhdng bai on xd hpi tai Hy Lap tang len khien dong USD lai dape mua vdo do ddng EUR gidm gid. Dieu ndy se khien eho gid vdng khdng the tdng len do dd'i trong vdi ddng USD.
Tin tQc ve tinh hinh sdn xua't hdng hda, niem tin tieu dung, ty le thd't nghiep, chi sd chQng khodn, dau, hang hda, USD... se tidp tge dnh hQdng manh tdi gid vdng trong thdng 11 t d i .
3. Nhan djnh gia vang thang 11 / 2 0 1 1 theo phan tich ky thuat va chie'n lUdc giao djch
Thdng 9 / 2 0 1 1 , gid vdng md cQa tai 1.825,68 USD/ounce, ddng cQa d mQc 1.623,53 USD/ounce; mQc thap nhd't d 1.532,62 USD/ounce, eao nhd't d 1.920,63 USD/ounce, ghi nhdn mpt thang g i d m sdu sau khi tdng lap dinh.
Bieu dd 1 : Phan tich ky thuat dU bao gia vang theo thang
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THONG TIN & D i ; BAD KINH TE - XA HQI Stf 70 (10.2011)Gid vdng trong nhQng t u i n d i u thdng 10 md cQa tai mQc 1.629,43 USD/ounce, dat mQc eao nhd't d 1.694,91 USD/ounce rdi gidm xudng mQc 1.603,72 USD/ounee vd ed xu hQdng gidm tidp; mQc hd tra trong thdng nam tai cdc mQc 1.540-1.502-1.495 vd 1.480 USD/ounce.
Bieu dd 2: Phan tich ky thult dU bao gia vang theo tuan
Linda
1625.79
• l a a M a s v B i i H t o a n uHayan lOAiaion xo^im iiiu,xa iimxu nnnvaiii uito»ii 3>ii20ii
Cia vang thang 1 l / i U l 1 nhieu kha nang la mpt ihang tang CIICLI chmh vui xu IUIOIIL; giiim trLioc, ve gan mQc hd trp 1.532 USD/ounce, sau dd tang trd lai vung gid 1.632-1.692 USD/ounce trong trQdng hpp gid vdng thdng 10 la thdng gidm va ed gid ddng cQa quanh mQc 1.570 USD/ounce. Tai bieu dd thdng, chi bdo Stochastic (chl sd can ban nhan biet khuynh hQdng vd sQ ddo chieu cua thj tradng) cat nhau giQa dQdng nhanh vd dadng chdm va hadng xudng qua vung qua mua, trong khi tai bieu dd t u i n eho xu hadng gidm ydu khi tidp can vung qud ban. Chi bdo M A C D tai bieu dd thdng vdn dang eho tin hieu tang gid khi dadng xu hadng chUa eat qua M A C D va vdn hadng len, trong khi tai bieu dd tuan, chi sd nay dang cho tin hieu gidm khd rd.
TrUdng hpp gid ddng cQa thdng 10 nam quanh hay tren mQc gid md cQa 1.629 USD/ounce thi thdng 11/2011, gid vang khd ed the tang cao md cd khd nang di ngang tang dieu ehinh nhe hay thdm chi gidm trd lai ve quanh mQc hd trp 1.532 USD/ounce trQde khi cd mdt dpt tang gid mdi.
4. Tac dong den gia vang trong nUdc
Gid vdng Viet Nam bien dpng cung chieu vdi gid vdng the gidi vd v i n ludn chenh leeh eao hOn tren dadi 1 trieu ddng/lapng tuy theo thdi diem vd theo t^ gid USD/VND, mac du Nhd nUde dd ed nhQng chmh sdeh binh dn gid vdng nhQ viec eho p h ^ p 5 ngdn hdng (Eximbank, ACB, Saeombank, Techcombank, DongABank) vd SJC dape bdn vang ra manh trong nhQng luc thj trQdng vdng vat cha't trong nQdc qud ndng. Trong 1 t u i n binh dn thj tradng (6-12/10), SJC vd ede ngan hang da bdn ra hon 10 ta'n vdng, trong dd, rieng SJC bdn ra hon 60.000 lupng, thu hep khodng cdch giQa gia trong nQdc vd gid the gidi khd nhieu. TQ mQc eao nhd't hon 49 trieu ddng/lQpng trong thdng 9, gid vdng trong nUde da tgt gidm manh theo da gidm eua gid vdng the gidi, lui sau ve dUdi 42,5 trieu ddng/lapng. Bien phdp chdng lai gidi d i u cO vdng vd trdnh rui ro hieu qud cua cde td chQc kinh doanh vdng v i n Id ndi rdng bien dp mua - bdn trong luc thj trQdng bien ddng manh. Tdm ly mua - ban vdng hien nay kha de dat sau khi nhd d i u ta chQng kien nhQng con sdng t h i n eua vang khi tang cQng nhQ khi gidm trong thdi gian qua, tuy nhien, sQ quan tam tdi vdng v i n d mQc eao khi tinh hinh kinh te the gidi khdng ma'y sdng sua vd lam phdt trong nQdc v i n duy tri d mQc cao.D
Stf 70 (10.2011) THONG TIN & D\J BAO KINH TE - XA HOI