(Dollar dau lua - Nguon goc ciia khung hoang di cu
IS. Ho Van chieu
Tong (6 ngu'di xuong tdu vfl'gff bien d Trung Bong - Bdc Phi ^a len tdfi hon 650.000 ke tfl ndm 2014, trong Jo hon 6.000 ngu'cfi Sa vTnh vien nam Iqi Jdy bien fljo Trung ttoi vi Jam tdu vd cUdfp bien. Hien nay, u'6'c tinh hon 2 trieu trieu ngu'cfi ti ngn tfl V ' Q ^a ^o vdo Tho Nhi Ky vd 1,2 trieu ngifdfi nCo Ja hien dien tgi Liban. Ddng ngu'cfi ndy Jang cuon cudn xuong tdu Je Jen chdu Au.
N
guyen nhan tham hoa niy chinh la do My va cac nfldc Tiy Au da gay ra cac cudc chien tranh d Trung Ddng, dem den chet chdc v l ngheo ddi, lam cho cac dan tgc d diy"khdng cdn con dfldng nao khic ngoai viec chgy trdn" (Ldi Tdng thfl ky Lien hdp qudc Ban Ki-moon). Vi sao ho lai dem chiln tranh din Trung Ddng, gieo tai hoa cho ngfldi din vd tgi? Ho dfldc ldi gi vdi nhflng hlnh ddng tin bgd do? "Cli bi mat ma ai cung bilt" nim d " kho blu vang den" Trung Ddng.
Kho bau cfla Trung Ddng gdm cd tdng trfl Ifldng khoang 1.150 ty thung dau chilm tdi ^A trfl lfldng cua the gidi va vai nghin ty m3 khi ddt. Kho bau nay cdn cd vung ngoai vl keo dai tfl Tuynidi den khu vflc Trung A giap gianh vdi Nga va Trung Qudc. Nhan ra vai trd sdng cdn cua an nmh nang Ifldng ddi vdi phat trien cfla cac qudc gia, My da tim moi cleh rang budc cac qudc gia nim frong khu vflc de dgc chiem ngudn Idi nay. Thang 5-1973, Clu lac bd Berhard da frieu tap cudc hgp hang nam vdi 84 dai gia ngin hang, chinh fri tham dfl d l ban v l viee cflu van the suy yeu cua ddng USD do lun sau
vao cudc chien tranh fl Viet Nam va sau khi Nixon tuyen bd (vao nam 1971) huy bd che dd kim ban vj (tflc cam k i t 35 USD an mgt ounce vIng theo Hiep dinh Bretton Woods). Ho da dfla ra mdt k l hoaeh ghe gdm: day gia diu tang 400%.
My da toan tinh: neu mua ban diu lfla frln the gldi thanh toin bang dollar My, gia diu tang cao, ddng dollar My cd \i\ tri cao hdn. My xui dye Ai Cap va Syne tien cdng Israel, gay ra cugc chien tranh Trung Ddng lin thflu tfl, ddng thdi lai kich ddng ele nflde Arip cam van diu Ifla ddi vdi phflflng Tay. Dung nhfl dfl ti'nh, cudc khung hoang diu lfla da diln ra, g i l diu tang vot, gia trj ciJa ddng USD nang cao, t h i ylu cua ddng USD dfldc cflu van va tao ra dilu kien de gianh dfldc quyln ehu dao tren mat tran t l i chinh. Bfldc tilp theo cua ke hogch nham hiem niy la chinh phu Hoa Ky va chinh phu A Rap Saudi ky mgt Thda thuan theo dd My cung cap vien trd ky thuat va quan sfl cho A Rap Saudi d l nflde nay chi chap nhin dollar My lam ddng tiln trong mua ban diu lfla. Sau dd, Thda thuin nay dat dfldc vdi ca OPEC. Tfl dd hinh thanh thdng le qudc te, mua ban diu Ifla hiu
^ _ ^ M t a H H ^ ^ H
^^•HHMMJii^H
• 1
1
h i t dflde tien hanh bing dollar My. Dd la sfl khdi diu cho mdt ky nguyen thdng frj eua ddng Dollar diu Ifla. Ddng thdi, de gdp phin tao chd dflng vflng chac cho ddng ngi te, My chi lap ra 2 trung tam giao djch diu md qudc te tai New York, London v l cac trung tam nay chi sfl dung USD trong thanh toan. Sau "Thda thuan" ljch sfl dd, nhilu nfldc frln the gicfi da tim mpi cich mua va tieh trfl USD de mua diu. Chinh vi vai trd lue dd cua ddng USD vcft thi trfldng diu Ifla the gidi nin nd da tao ra nhflng nhu c i u "ao" va cho phep ngfldi My "tha sflc" in them tiln de mua diu, de eho vay, de chi cho quan va nhap khiu hang hda ben ngoli.
Vdi nhflng rang budc trong cac dilu khoan vdi My: chi giao dieh bang USD khi mua bin diu Ifla, dong USD da trd thanh ddng ngogi t | ehinh trong thanh toan qudc te cfla cac nfldc xuat khiu diu md Arap v l tran ngap trong cac kho bac, ngan hang cfla ho. L l nhflng nflde lac hau, cac nfldc Arap khdng the tieu hda khdi Iflgng ngogi t | khdng Id dd bing diu
6 0 • TAPCHiTINHOCNGANHANG • s 6 1(157) • 1/2016
-^•/6
tflva tilu dung, ho hiu nhfl dd het vao tii;
frfldng tai chinh My, noi c i t diu an toan v l tin cay nhit. The la hang ti USD, sau khi dfldc in an, phat hanh tai My de dem ddi lay diu Ifla lai quay frd v l ndi da smh ra nd vdi lai xuat thap: 2%/ nam de lam ngudn vdn phat trien cho "chinh qudc".
Khdi Ifldng dollar do dfldc goi la "dollar dau Ifla", da dfldc coi la bieu tfldng cho sflthdng fri cua kinh te My ddi vdi kmh te toan eiu. Khoi Ifldng "dollar diu Ifla" nay dflgc My diu tfl vao cac thj frfldng mdi ndi va ca the gidi thdng qua cac edng ty My vdi ^ suit hieu ich rat cao, thfldng la 10%. Diy la cleh tinh mdt phin ldi nhuan ttiu dflde tfl Dollar diu Ifla. "Dollar My la ddng tiln thanh toan qude t l . De dam bao ti'nh thanh khoan, cac nfldc diu gifl USD va lai suit cua nhflng tiln t l nay rat ttiap. My da diing nhflng ddng USD nay de ddi lay nhQng tai san ed gia tri cao til cac nflde, vi ttie cang thu dfldc hieu leh cao hdn. Dfl frfl ngoai te cua toan the gidl tn gia tirdng dfldng 7.500 ty USD, ttong do 60% II ddng USD (rilng Arap Xeiit, CIc tilu vfldng qude Arap thdng nhit, Kuwait, Qatar, nhflng nfldc xuat khiu diu lfla, cd tdng dfl ttfl ngoai te fldc ti'nh khoang 2.100 ^ USD). Neu chi mgt phin ba frong sd do dung USD de thanh khoan, tfldng dflcffig vdi tai san khoang 2.500 ty USD. Neu hieu ich ttiu dflgc tfl nhQng t l i san nay d mflc 10% thi hing nam My da thu lai 250 ^ USD" (Trung Qudc v l My, ai nd ai? Thdi Nay sd 191 ngay 7/11/2011). Vgy la, frong 40 nam qua. My da thu ve khdi Ifldng lgi nhugn nay lln tdi 100.000 ty USD, bing 130%
GDP toin ciu vao nam 2014. Nin nhd ring , day ch? la gia dinh mdt phin eua ldi nhuan tfl ddllar diu lfla.
Trin thfle te, khdng chl cd Hoa Ky ma nhilu nfldc dang phat trien cQng dfldc ldi.
Viec xuat hien mdt ngudn tai chinh ddi
dao mdi nay khien eho Hi suat cho vay qude te hdi cudi thap niln 1970 ha xudng. Nhilu nflde dang phat friln, nhat la d khu vflc My Latinh, chau A-Thai Binh Dfldng da tan dung ed hdi dd de vay tiln phue vu cdng nghiep hda. Mdt van d l ma dollar diu Ifla dem [gi la sfl gia tang ed tinh thanh khoan cao vi mdt phin Idn dollar diu Ifla dfldc dung de mua chCfng khoan. Song, nd rat nguy hiem vdi mgi nin kinh t l md frln the gidi bdi vi gidi t l i phi|t cd till lung doan thi frfldng tiln te, gay ra eae cugc khung hoang tai ehinh.
CIc cudc khung hoang t l i chinh d Anh nam 1964, cudc vd nd eua Argentina nam 1988, cudc khung hoang tai ehinh d Chau A1997-1998, cudc khung hoang t i l chinh d My 2008 va cudc khung hoang nd cdng d chiu Au nam 2010 da chflng minh ffilu dd.
Thdng qua ddng USD diu md, My da khien ca the gicft A Rap phai phy thugc vao kinh t l , ehinh fri cua My, gian tiep budc kinh te cua cic nfldc OPEC cung nhilu nflde khac phai "dd ddn" eho nhOhg cugc khung hoang kmh te cua My v l liy diu md lam "ddn bay" de thflc hien nhflng toan tinh chinh tn tren khap the gidl. Ching hgn, khi mudn trimg phgt chau Au, Nhlt Ban, Trung qudc va cac qudc gia mcft ndi khic. My da ning gil diu v l pha gia ddng USD, budc cac nflde phai Ilm vao canh nd nin chdng chat hole suy thoai kinh te. Khi mudn triet ha Liln Xd trfldc diy va Nga hien nay. My Igi ha gia diu Ifla va ning g i l USD de rut vdn v l My, khien nhilu edng ty eua cac qudc gia lam vao pha san, nin kinh t l cua cac qudc gia dd rdi vao canh tieu dilu. Quyln uy cua dollar diu Ifla ed till tilu diet nhflhg ai can trd vdi bach tudc cua nd vfldn khip the gidi, du dd la "ke ddc tai" Sadam, hay sau nay la Gadafi mdt khi ho cfl khang khang sfl
dung Dina de thanh toan diu, hoac thay ddng USD bang dong euro. Ho phai nhan eai c h i t tflc tfldi va cay dang nhfl vay.
Quyln uy cija dollar dau Ifla cung edn the thdi bung nggn Ifla ehiln franh neu cae cfldng qudc nhfl Nga, Trung Qude thd tay can dfl vao khu vflc, de doa dia vi ba quyen cfla My d diy. Dilu nay eing dflde ehflng minh khi My tan edng xam Ifldc Iraq, Apganlstan, hd trd cac Iflc Ifldng tham chien d Syria, d ele nfldc Bie Phi hay ed y do tan cdng quan sfl Iran vdi ele nguyin cd khac nhau nhflng myc dich eudi eung vin la lam the nao de hoan toan thdng tri dfldc khu vflc "vang den" cua the gidi.
Can cfl vao thflc te nay, ngfldi ta thay rd ddng cd ttiflc sfl cua Hoa Ky trong cac cudc chien tranh d vung Vinh va Bic Phi.
Hg ggi nhtJTig cudc chien franh dd la: Cac eude chiln tranh nay dfldc Washington len ke hoach, ggi la 'Dk I n Oai Trung Ddng" v l dfloc thflc thi bang hai chien djch cd sfl tham gia cfla cac nfldc II thanh vien cua NATO: Cudc chien tranh x l m Iflgc Iric, Afganistan (2001-2013) do Tong thdng My G.W Bush phat ddng dfldi danh nghTa "Cudc chien chdng khung bd" va cudc "Cich mang Mua xuin Arap" tfl Tuynidi den Syria (2011 den nay) dflgc thflc hien theo Sac lenh Chinh tri sd 11 va 13 (2009) cua Tong thdng Obama. Muc tieu eua De an nay la
"giai phdng" cac qude gia Trung Ddng, Bae Phi va ea mdt phin Trung A khdi eae the Iflc ddc tai (ml thflc chit la eac the Iflc ngan can sflc mgnh eua dollar diu Ifla), day lui anh hfldng cua eic cfldng qudc la Nga va Trung Qudc khdi khu vflc, thiet lap mdt "Lien minh Trung Ddng", lam san sau cua My, glflvQng vj t h i b l quyen d Trung Ddng cfla My^
IPCHIimHOCNGANKANG • s o 1 ( 1 5 7 ) - 1 / 2 0 1 6 • 6 1