KINH TE
TAC DONG CUA CHUYEN DICH CCf CAU KINH TE DEN TANG TRlJOfNG KINH TE
VUNG DONG BANG SONG ClTU LONG
• N G U Y I N THANH CONG - DAO THONG MINH
T 6 M TAT:
Nghien cilu nay tap trung phdn tich tac d6ng ei3a chuyen dich cd ca'u kinh ta' (CDCCKT) de'n tang tru'dng Icinh te viing dong bang song Cu'u Long (DBSCL). Nghign ei?u siJ dung ham tuye'n tinh da bien dtfdc t6'ng hdp ti^ cac nghien cu'u trUde va thifc hien du'a tren ngu6n di? lieu thiJ ed'p thu thap tai Nien giam thong ke - Cue Thong ke cua 13 tinh, thdnh pho viing DBSCL, Tong cue Thong ke VietNam giai doan 2006-2017. Ke't qua ifdc Itfdng cho tha'y, cdc y6'u to': vo'n vat cha't, lUc lu'dng lao dong, l^ trpng nong nghiep, ty le hp ngheo va cd sd ha tang cd tac d6ng den tang trifdng kinh te cua vung; kd't qua nay phu hdp vdi cd sd ly thuyd't, cdc nghien cu'u trifdc va tinh hinh thuc td'.
Tiif khoa: Chuyen dich ed cd'u kinh te, tang tru'dng kinh te, dong bang song Cu'u Long.
1. D§t vdn d€
Phat trien kinh td'ld qud trinh bien doi, tang tie'n toan didn ve moi mat cua nen kinh te, trong do bao gom ea sd Idn len ve quy mo san lu'dng va tie^n bo, hoan thidn ve ed cd'u. S\i Idn Idn v^ mat so' lifdng vd sd bien ddi cd cd'u la 2 mat khong tdch rdi cua qud trinh phat trien. Ne'u tang tdng san pha'm trong nifdc phan dnh trang thai tdng trifdng kinh td thi chuyen dich cd cd'u kinh te' phan dnh chd't lifdng tdng tru'dng kinh te'. De tie'p tuc thifc hien to't Nghi quye't sd26-NQ/TW, ke't luan so 28-KL/TW, Quyd't dinh sd 939/QD-TTg ciia Thu tifdng Chinh phu v^ "Phe duyet ke" hoach tdng the phat trien kinh td' xa hpi vung DBSCL dd'n ndm 2020" vd nham giai quye't cac va'n de eon tdn tai bd't cap cua vung DBSCL, nhif: kinh td'phat tridn chu ye'u theo chieu rpng; viec dau tif va iJng dung tid'n b6 khoa hoc vd cong nghe tao ra gia trj gia tdng khong cao;
he thd'ng ket ca'u ha tang thie'u ddng bp; gid tri san xud't nong nghiep thie'u tinh on djnh va eo nguy cd bi thu hep didn tich san xud't do tac ddng cua tinh trang bid'n doi khi hau, nifdc bid'n ddng, moi tnfdng
ngay cang bi 6 nhidm,... Vide tai cd ca'u nong nghidp Id rd't can thie't do'i vdi vung DBSCL, la thay the' dan didn tich dd't san xua't kem bieu qua vd bi anh hifdng bdi xdm nhdp man sang cdc loai cay/ con cd hidu qua kinh te' cao, gidm d^n didn tich da't san xuat lua va khuye'n khich thanh lap cac viing san xud't nguyen lieu chd't lu'dng cao. Nghien cu'u ndy tap trung phdn tich, do lu'dng tac ddng cua CDCCKT den tang trufdng kinh te vung DBSCL giai doan 2006-2017.
2. Cd sd ly thuyd't va phifdng phap nghidn cu'u 2.1. Ccfsdly thuyet
Quan diem cua tac gia Hodng Thi Chmh (2005) cho rang cd ca'u kinh te' la mot tdng the he thd'ng kinh te' bao gdm nhieu ye'u to' cd quan he chat che vdi nhau, tdc dpng qua lai vdi nhau trong nhu'ng khong gian vd thdi gian nha't dinh, trong nhiing dieu kien kinh td- xa hpi nha't dinh, difdc the bien ca ve mat dinh tinh lan dinh lu'dng, ca ve so' lifdng va cha't lu'dng, phil hdp vdi muc tieu du'dc xdc dinh cua nen kinh te'. Cd ca'u kinh te' bao gdm nhieu loai: cd ca'u ngdnh kinh te', cd cd'u kinh te' theo
So 9-Thang 5/2019 9 5
TAP GHJ CONG THIfdNG
thanh phan, ed cd'u kmh td' theo viing lanh thd, cd ca'u theo khu vifc the chd', ed cd'u tdi sdn xud't, cd ca'u thifdng mai quo'e te'. Trong do, cd cd'u ngdnh kinh te la quan trpng nhd't vi no phdn dnh trinh do phdn cong lao dpng xd hpi, the hien trinh dp chuyen mon hoa san xud't eua ede ngdnh va eua nen kinh te'.
CDCCKT Id "qua trinh cai bie'n kinh te xa hpi tii tinh trang lae hdu, mang nang tinh tif ed'p tif tuc tifng bifdc vao chuyen mon hda hpp Iy, trang bi ky thuat, c6ng nghe bien dai". Chuyen dich cd cd'u kinh te' bao gdm vide cdi bid'n kinh te theo nganh, theo vung Idnh tho va ed cd'u cdc thdnh phdn kinh te (Le Du Phong & Nguyin Thanh Dd, 1999). Cd ca'u kinh td' luon thay ddi theo tilng thdi ky phat trien b6i cac yd'u tdhdp thanh. Do la sd thay ddi vd so' lifdng cac nganh bode stf thay ddi ve quan he ty Id giffa cac ngdnh, ede viing, cae thanh phan do sif xud't hidn hoac triet tidu eua mot so' nganh.
2.2. Dd lieu nghien cdu
Cdn cff trdn mo hinh nghidn cffu difdc chpn de phan tich, dff lidu dffpc thu thap vd tdng hdp tff ngudn dff lieu thff ca'p tff Tdng cue Thd'ng ke (GSO), Nien gidm thd'ng kd - Cue Thdng kd cua 13 tinh, thdnh vung DBSCL, Tdng cong ty Didn Iffe miln Nam trong giai doan 2006 - 2017.
2.3. Phdffng phdp nghien cdu
Nghidn cffu thffc hien du'a trdn cac ly thuyd't ve md'i lien he giffa CDCCKT va tang trffdng kinh td';
cac cong trinh nghidn cffli IJ thuyd't va thffc nghidm tnidc CO lien quan. Nghien cffu sff dung phffdng phap dinh Iffdng vdi ky thuat phan tich hdi quy vdi tap dff lieu bang (Panel Regression); xay dffng hai mo hinh hdi quy bpi (FEM, REM) va kiem dinh cac gia thie't nghien cffu dat ra nham kiem chffng tdc dpng cua CDCCKT dd'n tang trffdng kinh te' viing DBSCL giai doan 2006 - 2017. Hffdng tie'p c|n nhffng tdc dpng cd' dinh FEM (Fixed Effects) va nhffng tdc dpng ngau nhien REM (Radom Effects) cung se dffde sii dung de tim ra mo hinh phu hdp nha't cho tap dff lieu.
3. Md hinh nghidn cliru
M6 hlnh nghidn cffu Id hdm san xua't Cobb - Dauglass md rpng va cac bie'n dffde tdng hdp ttf nghien cffu trffdc phil hdp vdi dac die'm kinh te tai dia phffdng.
Ham tdng quat cd dang nhff sau:
LnGDP,t = po, + Pi *LnK,, + Ps^LnLj, + p3*AGRIn-l- p4*P0Vit+ p5*0PEN„
+ P6*ELECit + E„
Trong do: i = bieu thi 13 tinh/ thanh vung DBSCL; t = bieu thi thdi gian (2006 - 2017); po la bang so' bieu thi trinh d5 cong nghd (yd'u td nay khong the do Iffcfng dffde); pj (i = l,n) la cdc he sd bdi quy can dffde ffdc Iffdng cua md hlnh; e„ la sai sd ngdu nhidn cua md hinh, dai didn eho cdc nhan to' khdng dffde dffa vao md hinh.
M6 ta cac bie'n: Xem bdng
len bien
Bien phu thuoc LnGDP Bien doc lap AGRI
LnK
LnL POV OPEN
ELEC
Dien giai
Gia tn logarifh ty nhien gia tn GDP thuc te cua cac lintl/
thanh (dvt: ty dong, tinh theo gia so sanh nam goc 2010)
Ty trong cua nganh nong nghiep trong GDP (%) Gia tri iogarith tti nhien von vat chat thuc te ctia nen kmh te {dvt; ty dong)
Gia tn Iogarith tu nhien luc luong lao dpng dang lam vi6c hoac that nghiep nhung van dang tim viec {dvt: nghin ngu6i) Ty le ho ngheo (%)
Dp md thuong mei dUpc do lUSng bang ty trpng dIu tu triJc tiep nudc ngoai trong tong von dau tU (%)
Dien nang tieu thu binh quan cua moi tinh {Kwh) (la bien sd dai dien cho yeu td cd ci ha fang)
Daul(y vpng
( • )
(+)
(*) (-)
(+)
( t )
KSTthOa cac nghien cOu tn/dc
Mai \«n lan (2014), Dinh Phi H6 (2014) Tran Tho Dgt (2002)
Nguyen TIl] Canh (2009) L« Anh Vu (2015) Ng va Leung(2004)
Esfahani
& Ramirez (2003)
96 So 9-Thdng 5/2019
KINHTE
Bang 1. Thong ke nno td cac bien trong mo hinh Bien
LnGDP InK InL AGRI
POV OPEN ELEC
D|nh nghTa Logarith cua GDP thuc te (ty dong) Logarith cua von vat chat (ty ddng)
Logarith cOa so lupng luc itlpng lao dong (ngan ngudi) Ty trgng cua nganh nong nghiep trong GDP (%) Ty le ho ngheo (%)
Dp md thuong mai
Ltipng dien nang tieu thu cua moi tinh (Kwh)
N 156 156 156 156 156 156 156
Mean 9,39 9.50 5.95 28,8 5,51 0,06 939,6
Std, Dev 0.41 0,42 0,19 5,42 1,85 0,08 534.8
Min 8,28 8.71 5.42 11.7 2.10 5,08 102.6
Max 10,46 10.57 6,28 39,8 9.30 0.36 2.136
4. Kd't qua phSn tich va didn giai ke't qua 4.1. Phdn tich thd'ng ke mo ta cdc bien trong mo hinh (Bang 1)
Qua thdng kd md ta cac bie'n trong mo binh cho tha'y dff lieu cua cdc bid'n tffdng do'i dn dinh, khong CO dff lieu bat thffdng (outliers), mffc dp tffdng ddng khd eao ndn mau nghien cffu tap trung va phil hdp vdi muc tieu nghidn effu, Sau khi xem xet ede bid'n trong mo hinh nghien cffu thong qua ma tran tffdng quan vd kidm tra hd so' nhdn tff phdng dai phffdng sai (VIE) chd tha'y khdng cd hidn tffdng da cdng tuye'n.
4.2. lldc lUdng vd phdn tich nghien cdu Nghien cffu sff dung cong cu phan mem Stata 13.0 de chay md hinh hdi quy va ke't qua tbife nghiem nhff sau:
Bang 2. Ke't qud hoi quy vd kiem djnh Housmon
Bien quan sat
Hang sd LnK LnL Agn POV OPEN ELEC Sdquan sat R^ hieu chinh Hausman Test
Bien phu thuflc Y (LnGDP) FEM
3,150"
0,325"' 0,729"*
-0,028"*
-0,067*"
-0,036 -6.040 166 87.72%
REM 3,917*"
0,371*"
0,428"*
-0,012"
-0.069*"
-0.560***
0,0001***
156 86.16%
0,000
* " p < 0 , 0 ) ; " p < 0,05;'p<0,10
Nguon: Ket qua phdn tich td phdn mem Stata 13 Ke't qua kidm dinh Hausman (Bang 2) cho tha'y Prob.Chi-Square deu nho hdn 0,05, vi vdy bde bo gia thuyd't HCEOCECE vd kd't ludn eo sff tffdng thich khi sff dung FEM trong mo hinh nghien cffu. Ke't qua kiem dinh phffdng sai cua sai .sd khdng ddi (kjem dinh White), chi sd Prob.Chi-Square = 0,000 nho hdn 5% va ket qua kiem dinh tff tffdng quan cua sai sd' (kiem dinh Breuseh-Godfrey), chi sd Prob.F = 0,0000 cung nho hdn 5%. Ke't qua nay cho tha'y md hlnh vffa eo hidn tffdng phffdng sai eua sai so' thay ddi vffa CO hidn tffdng tff tffdng quan cua sai sd'. Theo Wooldridge (2002), each khde phuc khi phffdng sai ciiasaisdthayddi, bidn tffdng tff tffdng quan eua sai so' Id chpn mo binh hdi quy vdi phffdng phdp binh phffdng be nha't tdng qudt (General Least Square - GLS). Bang 3 trinh bay ke't qua hoi quy bang phffdng phdp GLS dd' ffdc Iffdng ede hd sd'hdi quy.
Bang 3. Ket qud hoi quy mo hinh theo phudng phdp GLS Bien quan sat
Hang so LnK LnL Agri POV OPEN ELEC Sd quan sat
Bien phu thu$c Y (LnGDP) 4,919*"
0,334"' 0,240"
-0.009**
-0.031"' -0.124 0.0003"*
156
*** p<0,01;" p< 0,05;' p<0,10
Ngudn: Kit qud tinh todn ciia tdc gid
Nguon- Kit qud tinh loan cua tdc gid 4.3. Dien gidi ket qua
Kd't qud nghien cffu cho tha'y rang cac yd'u td:
vd'n vdt chd't, Iffe Iffdng lao ddng, ty trpng ngdnh Ndng nghidp, ty Id bd ngheo va Iffdng dien nang
So 9-Thang 5/2019 97
TAP CHl cone THme
tieu thu da giai thich dffde tdng trffdng kinh td' tai cac tinh/ thanh DBSCL giai doan 2006 - 2017 vdi he sd' ffdc Iffdng dung nhff ky vpng eua nghien cffu.
Trong cdc dieu kidn khde khdng ddi, khi tang 1%
vdn vdt cha't ldm cho GDP tdng 0,334%; Iffc Iffdng lao dpng tang 1% lam GDP tdng 0,24%; ty trong ndng nghiep trong cd ca'u giam 1% lam cho GDP tang 0,009%; ty he hp ngheo giam 1% lam thue day GDP tang 0,031%; dien ndng tidu thu tang 1.000 kWh lam cho GDP tang 0,0003 ddn vi. Dieu nay phii hpp vdi cd sd ly thuyd't va cae nghien cffu trffdc. Ke't qua nghien cffu dd lam rd mdi quan he giffa CDCCKT va tang trffdng kinh td'; ehi ra ed che' tac dpng eua CDCCKT tdi tang trffdng dffde thffe hien thdng qua tffdng quan ty ff-png cdc nganh.
4.4. Di xuat
Vung DBSCL can phai chuyen tff nen kinh te' phat trien theo chieu rpng, tdng quy md vd tham dung lao dpng la chu yd'u sang phat trien theo chieu sau, Id'y chd't Iffdng tang trffdng Id dong Iffe ehu ye'u de phdt trien cdc ngdnh, ITnb vffe cd ham Iffdng khoa hpc, cdng nghd va gia tri gia tdng cao, it gay 6 nhidm moi trffdng, hffdng tdi phat trien kinh te tri thffc. Song song vdi vd'n de do, nhiem vu hang dau, CO tinh chat quye't dmh hdn ea do la phai thffe hidn chuyen dich cd cd'u kinh te nhanh, hieu qua vd trffdc hd't la ed cd'u nganh kinh te'. Vi vdy, hffdng xac dinh mo hlnh quan hd giffa chuyen dich ed cd'u nganh kinh td' vd tdng trffdng kmh td' ehinh la dinh hffdng dung qua trinh chuyen dich cd ca'u ngdnh kinh te' nham vdo muc tidu dam bao ndng cao chat Iffdng tang h-ffdng, tdng trffdng ben vffng. Cu thd nhff sau:
Ngodi pha'n dd'u tang manh dich vu va cdng nghidp, can nham vao muc tieu tao ra dffde mot nen ndng nghidp hien dai, ffng dung khoa hpc cong nghd mdi, nang cao nang sud't cay trong, day manh vide ffng dung ed gidi boa mot each phd bie'n, chff khdng ddn thuan la gidm ty trpng GDP ndng - ldm - thuy san xudng.
Chuyen dich cd ca'u nong nghiep - phi ndng nghidp: thay ddi ed ban ed cd'u ndng nghiep va phi nong nghiep, phat trien nhanh cac ngdnh phi nong nghidp (cong nghidp, tieu thu cdng nghidp, dich vu) theo hffdng cdng nghidp hoa, bidn dai boa nong
nghidp, ndng thdn de thu hut lao ddng, ndng cao mffc sd'ng nhdn ddn. Ndng nghiep tiep tue eo sff tdng trffdng vd phat trien mdi ve cha't. Do'i vdi nganh Cong nghiep, can tap trung hlnh thanh cdc nganh cong ngbidp che'tac san xua't hang may mac, che' bid'n thuy san, san xua't hda chat, cdng nghiep vi sinh, cong nghiep cd khi,...
Chuyen dich cd ca'u san xua't - phi san xua't (dich vu): phat trien manh cac dich vu phuc vu san xua't va ddi sd^ng, trong do ehu trpng cdc djch vu:
du lich, thffdng mai, dich vu bffu ehinh vidn thdng, van tai, tdi ehinh, ngdn bdng, bao hiem, chuyen giao cdng nghd,... theo hffdng hien dai, chd't Iffdng cao. Ben canh do, viec quan tam de'n cac yd'u td vd ngudn nhdn life, ve vd'n vat chd't, vd'n dau tff hay cae yd'u td' vd vide xoa ddi giam ngheo, cai thien ke't ca'u cd sd han tang eung rat quan trpng va ddng dffpc quan tdm. Tap trung nang cao chd't Iffdng day vd hoc, trffdc hd't Id cha't Iffdng, kie'n thffc ciia dpi ngu gido vien trdn ed sd ehuan hda; trang bi du kid'n thffc can thie't di ddi vdi viec phdt huy tinh chu dpng, khdi gpi ndng Iffc sang tao cua hoc sinh, sinh vien. Tff do, cha't Iffdng lao ddng se cai thien.
Phat tridn ed sd ha tang, nhd't Id didn, nffdc, giao thong phuc vu cho nhu cau phat trien cae khu, cum cdng nghidp da dffde ed'p cd tham quyen phe duyet nham tao didu kidn thuan ldi eho cdc doanh nghiep san xua't - kinh doanh, gdp pbin thuc day tang trffdng kinh td' nhanh vd ben vffng.
5. Ket luan
Nghien cffu sff dung tap dff lieu 13 tinh/ thanh vung DBSCL giai doan 2006 - 2017, vdi 156 quan sdt, dp dung md hinh bdi quy bang phffdng phdp ffdc Iffdng (FEM) ddi vdi bie'n phu thudc tdng trffdng kinh td', cac bie'n ddc lap lan Iffdt la vd'n vat chd't, lao dpng, ty trpng nong nghiep, ty le h6 ngheo, dp md kinh td', cd sd ha tang. Ket qua nghien cffu cho rang vd'n vat chd't, lao dpng, ty trpng ndng nghiep, ty le hd ngheo va cd sd ha ting cd tdc dpng tich cffc doi vdi tang trffdng kinh td vung DBSCL trong giai doan 2006 - 2017. Trong cac dieu kien khac khdng thay doi, cdc bid'n doc lap ciia md binh nay giai thich 87,72% sff thay ddi eua bid'n phu thupc tdng trffdng kinh te' •
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO:
1. Dinh Phi Ho (2014). Tdc ddng cua chuyen dich kinh teden trinh do phdt tri^n kinh tevd chdt luang cudc sdng, Tap chi Phat tnen Kinh ti', (214). tr. 02 -14, TrUdng Dgi hoc Kinh te'TP. Ho Chi Minh.
98 So 9-Thang 5/2019
KINH TE
2. Hodng Thi Chinh (2005), Chuyen dich ctfcdu sdn xud't ndng nghiip linh Cd Mau theo hudng phdt trien bin vdng, de tdi khoa hoc cap Bo, TrUdng Dgi hoc Kinh ti' TP. Hd Chi Minh.
3 Le Anh VU (2015), Anh hudng ciia tdng trUdng kinh te ldi phdt trien xd hdi ben vdng d cdc tinh ven bien Bdc Bo giai doan 2012 - 2020 vd tam nhin di'n ndm 2030, De tdi khoa hoc cdp Bo, Viin Hdn ldm Khoa hoc xd hdi Viit Nam.
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5 Mai Vdn Tdn (2014), Nghiin ciiu mdi quan he giSa chuyen dich ca cdu kinh te vd tdng irudng kinh te d TP. Ho Chi Minh, Ludn dn tien si, TrUdng Dai hoc Bach khoa Hd Ndi.
6. NguySn Thi Canh, 2009. Kinh ti'Viit Nam qua cdc chi sd phdt triinvd nhdng tdc dong cua qud Irinh hoi nhdp.
Tap chi Phdt trien Kinh le Trang 11-17.
7. Trdn Tho Dat (2002), Determinants of TFP growth in Vietnam in the period 1986- 2000. Sun'ey Report, APO 8 Esfahani and Ramirez, 2003. Institutions, infrastructure, and economic growth. Journal of Development Economics 70 (2003) 443 - 477.
9. Ng, Y. C. vd Leung, C. M. (2004), 'Regional Economic Peiformance in China: A Panel Data Estimation'. RBC Papers on China, Hong Kong Baptist University, [http://net2.hkbu.edu.hk/~brc/CP200204.PDF, 6/2005}.
10. Wooldridge, J. M, 2002, Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, Massachusetts:
The MIT Press.
Ngay nhan bai: 17/4/2019
Ngay phan bidn danh gia va su'a chii'a: 27/4/2019 Ngay cha'p nhdn dang bai: 7/5/2019
Thong tin tdc gid:
1. ThS. NGUYfeN THANH C 6 N G
Trffofng Cao dang Cong Thifdng Thanh pho Hd Chi Minh 2. ThS. DAO THONG MINH
Trffotng Dai hoc Van Hien
IMPACTS OF THE ECONOMIC RESTRUCTURING TO MEKONG DELTA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH
• Master. NGUYEN THANH CONG Ho Chi Minh City Coiiege of industry and Trade
• Master, DAO THONG MINH Van iHien University
ABSTRACT:
This study focuses on analyzing the impact of economic restructuring on the Mekong Delta's economic growth. This study uses multivariate linear functions which were synthesized from previous studies and based on secondary data sources collected from the Statistical Yearbook of 13 provinces and cities in the Mekong Delta in the period of 2006 - 2017 published by the General Statistics Office of Vietnam. The estimated result of this study reveal physical capital, labor force, agricultural density, poverty rate and infrastructure factors have impacts on the regional economic growth. These results are consistent with the theoretical basis, previous studies and actual situation.
Keywords: Economic restructuring, economic growth, Mekong Delta.
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