I KHOA HOC ^*J.!5[ci?M!l:M
XAY DlTNG BAN DO NGAP LyT HA LUtJ SONG BA THEO CAC CAP BAO DQNG
Th.s Dang Thi Kim Nhung, Ks.Nguyen Due Hoang, Th.s Dang Vi Nghiem Vien Quy hoach Thuy Ipi, 162A Trdn Quang Khdi, Hd Ndi
Tom t i t : Tinh hinh ngap lut hdng ndm viing ha luu sdng Ba tinh Phu Yen dien ra hit sue phuc tgp.
nghien cim ndy gidi thi?u phuong phdp vd kit qud xdy dung bdn dd ngap lut viing hg luu sdng Ba.
Cdc bdn dd ngap lut dupe xdy dimg theo cdc cdp bdo ddng tir cdc kit qud tinh loan bdng mo hinh thiiy luc MIKE FLOOD kit ndi md hinh thuy luc mgng sdng 1 chiiu vd md hinh thuy luc 2 chiiu vimg bdi (ran hg luu sdng Ba. .\Id hinh 1 chiiu dupe xdy dimg cho mang ludi sdng Ba tic thuong ngudn den ha luu bao gdm khodng 1.400 nut tinh todn. mien tinh todn 2 chieu bao triim todn bp vimg ddng bdng ngap lu. Bd md hinh kit ndi 1-2 chieu duac hi^u chinh vd kiem dinh vdi cdc trdn lU ndm 2009 vd trdn lu ndm 2010. Bdn dd ngap lut img vdi cdc muc dp ngdp lU tuang ung vdi cdc cdp bdo ddng lgi trgm thuy vdn Phu Ldm dupe xdy dung vdi cdc yeu td quy md ngdp. dp sdu ngdp lut ldn nhdt vd dupe thiit lap. phdn tich theo ranh gidi hdnh chinh cua 5 huyen vd 1 thdnh phd ndm d hg luu song Ba. tinh Phu Yen. Ket qud cua nghien ciru Id co sd khoa hoc de trien khai cong tdc phdng trdnh lut hao. gidm nhe thien tai hdng ndm viing hg luu sdng Ba d cdp Trung uong vd dia phuang.
Tir khda: Bdn dd ngap lut, cdp bdo dpng, md hinh thiiy luc, Mike Flood, hg luu sdng Ba Summary: This paper presents .some methods and results of set-up flooding map in downstream region ofBa river. Phu Yen province corresponding to water alert level and based on results of the coupling of the ID model and the 2D flood plain model. The ID hydraulic model was setup for river-channel system of Ba river including 271 km length of main river with 1 400 computation node. The 2D domain covers all the floodplain in the region within administrative boundaries of 6 administrative units oj Phu Yen province and including more than 75.000 calculation elements. The coupled model was calibrated and verified with catastrophic flood events in 2009 and flood event in 2010. Then the flood inundation maps for warning water level of Phu Lam hydrological station were established fi>r flood area, maximum inundation depth and were analised in admintrative boundary of 5 provinces, 1 city in the Ba river downstream region.
The results of research were scientific base for deployment offload prevention and disaster mitigation at national and local level.
Key words: Ba river, flooding map, hydraulic model, MIKE FLOOD, warning water level.
1. M d DAU xuyen ganh chiu hdu qud nang n l do Iii lut gay Hdng nam, vimg ha luu sdng Ba thupe tinh ••^- ^hi tinh rieng tign lu thang 11/2009 dd lam Phu Yen la mdt tix)ng nhung khu vuc thudng ^ "Stidi chet, 36 ngudi bi mat tich, 131 ngdi
nhd bi sap, 7.195 nhd bi hu hdng, hdng nghin ha Ilia va hoa mdu bi m i t trdng, thiSt hgi kinh Ngirdi phan bien: TS Nguygn Bang Giap t l udc tinh len tdi 2.500 ty ddng.
Ngay nhin bai: 17/8/2015
Ngay thong qua phan bi?n:9/9/2015 Ban dd ngap lut la mpt trong nhihig cdng cu him Ngay duyet dang: 02/12/2015 ^ ^ ^ P^^c vu ddc luc cho cong tac ling phd chu
2 TAP CHf KHOA HOC VA C O N G N G H E THUY LOl Sc5 29 • 2015
KHOA HOC ddng vcd lu lyt d ca trong giai dogn chudn bi
ciing nhu trong giai dogn iing phd khin cip phdng chdng thien tai. Vai trd cua ban dd ngap lut cdng trd nen quan trpng dac biet d viing ha luu vuc sdng Ba, do he thdng sdng ngdi dddy cd dp ddc rat ldn, thdi gian tap trung nude nhanh nen hau het cdc md hinh tinh todn phiic tap vl quy mo vd miic dp ngap lyt chua thi dap iing yeu eau cung cdp thdng tin nhanh chdng phyc vy eho cdng tde di ddi dan eu, iing phd bao lyt.
Chinh \i vdy, viec sii dung cac ban dd ngdp lyt xdy dyng sdn vdi cac kich ban se giiip cho cdc eo quan cd thdm quyen d trung uong va dia phuang chu dgng lya chgn phuang dn thich hgp de ling phd kip thdi khi cd cac thdng tin du bdo, cdnh bao nhanh ve tinh hinh lii lyt d ha luu.
Hinh 1: Bdn dd h4 thdng sdng vd cdc trgm thuy vdn tren luu v^rc sdng Ba Hien nay, cd nhieu phuang phap de xay dyng ban dd ngdp lyt, moi phuang phap deu cd uru
dilm va nhugc dieih rieng biet, cd the ke den cdc phuang phdp nhu: Phuang phdp thing ke dilu tra vlt lii cdc tran lii thuc te, phuang phap sir dyng bdn dd dia hinh,,dia mgo; phuong phdp anh ve tinh. Cdc phuong phdp tren cd uu dilm vl mat khdi lugng tinh todn, thdi gian tmh toan, nhung eung tdn tai kha nhieu yeu diem nhu chi tai hien dugc nhiing tran lii da timg xay ra trong lich su, phy thugc vao tinh ehinh xac hoi lie chu quan ciia ngudi dan sdng trong vimg ngap lyt, phu thudc nhieu vao dieu kien thdi tiet ciing nhu vi tri cua ve tinh, chu yen mang tinh chat md ta ehii chua xet den dac tinh thuy van, thuy luc cua khu vuc nghien ciiu, dac biet la rat ban che trong cdng tdc dy bao eac vung ngap lyt doi vdi tian Iii cd the xdy ra. Viec ap dung phuang phap md hinh toan thuy dpng luc trong cdng tdc xay dyng ban do ngap lu dang ngay cdng trd nen pho bien. Mac dii, phuang phap nay tdn tai mpt so nhugc diem nhu can thu thap khdi lugng tdi lieu rat ldn bao gom tdi lieu dia hinh vimg nghien ciiu, tai lieu dieu tra vet lii, tai lieu khi tugng thiiy van lien quan...Nhung cac uu diem vupt trdi cua phuang phap nay khien nd trd thanh mpt phuang phdp hiiu hieu nhat hien nay trong cdng tdc xay dyng ban do ngap lyt vdi muc dich iing phd khan cap thien tai, bao, lii. Phuang phdp ndy cung cap cho ngudi thuc hien khd nang md td sdt vdi dien bien lu theo thdi gian, khdng gian va dac biet cho phep ngudi thuc hien tinh toan md phdng du bdo theo hdng logt cdc td hgp kich bdn khdc nhau [4,6], til dd cung cap cho cac co quan quan ly ed mgt cai nhin tryc quan, toan dien, sdu sac ve cac khd nang ngap lyt cd the xdy ra tien luu vyc, ciing nhu miic do tac dgng den kinh tl - xa hdi tiong khu vyc nghien ciiu.
2. NOI DUNG NGHIEN CUtJ 2.1. Lua chpn mo hinh nghien cihi Nhu da phan tich d tren, viec md phdng dien biln ngap lii bdng md hinh todn thiiy luc da dem lai cho nhirng ngudi thyc hien khd nang
TAP CHf KHOA HOC VA C O N G N G H E T H O Y LOI S 6 29 - 2015
I KHOA HOC ^ ^ ^ g H ! B ! ! ^ B ldn trong edng tdc du bdo, cdnh bao phyc vu cho cdng tdc phdng tranh lyt bao va giam nhe thien tai. Mdt sd phin mem md phdng thuy luc da vd dang dugc irng dung rpng rai de giai quyit bai todn Hen quan den ngdp lyt cd the kl din nhu phin mIm VRSAP, SOBEK, HEC-RAS, ISIS, DELF 3D, MIKE... Mdi bp phdn mIm diu cd nhihig uu nhugc diem rieng vd he thdng edng ddng ngudi sir dyng khdc nhau. Trong dd, bp phdn mem MIKE do Vien thiiy luc Dan Mach phdt trien la mgt trong nhung bd cdng cu co nhieu uu diem va tinh nang vugt trdi vdi mpt sd cac md - dun chinh nhu MIKE NAM, MIKE 11, MIKE 21, MIKE FLOOD... Md dun MIKE FLOOD thyc hien cdc kit ndi giiia md hinh MIKE 11 (tinh toan thiiy luc mang sdng 1 chieu) vdi md hinh MIKE 21(md phdng ddng chay nude ndng 2 chieu theo phuang ngang) bang cdc loai kit ndi nhu ket ndi tieu chuan (sii dyng khi mdt nhanh sdng mdt chieu dd trye tiep vao viing ngdp 2 chieu); ket ndi ben (su dyng khi mpt nhanh sdng nam ke vung ngdp va khi myc nude trong sdng cao ban cao trinh bd thi se ket ndi vdi d ludi tuong iing cua md hinh 2 chieu); ket ndi cdng trinh (sii dung cae dang lien ket qua cong trinh); ket ndi khd (kit ndi khdng cho ddng chay tran qua).
Bp md hinh nay cd the tich hgp nhilu md dun khac nhau vdi cac tinh nang vd ting dung rat phong phii, nhimg trong khudn khd nghien ciiu nay chiing tdi chi sir dung mo dun RR (md hinh mua - ddng chay NAM) dl tao ddng chdy bien ddu vao cho md hinh thiiy lyc mgng sdng (HD) kit hgp vdi md hinh thuy lyc 2 ehilu MIKE 21FM. Gidi thieu va md ta chi tiet, kha ndng iing dyng ciia cac md - dun ndy cd the de ddng tim thiy trong nhung tdi lieu gin day.
Tinh den thdi diem hien tgi, cdc nghien ciiu xdy dung ban dd ngap lyt tren luu vyc sdng Ba con rat it [1,3,4,6], muc tieu nghien ciiu vd phgm vi nghien ciiu, phuang phdp nghien ciiu ciing khac nhau. Gin day nhit, mdt
nghien ciiu dugc trien khai nhdm muc dich xay dung bdn dd ngdp lyt vimg ha du sdng Ba [6] da ap dung dugc tiin bg khoa hpc cdng nghe vao trong nghien ciru, nhung muc tieu nghien ciiu lai chi nam trong pham vi xdy dyng ban dd ngdp lyt tuang iing vdi cac miic dp xa ciia ba hd chiia thiiy dien tien song Ba la Krdng H'Nang, Sdng Hinh va Sdng Ba Hg.
2.2. Xay dung mo hinh
a. Cdc sd lieu cdn thiet trong tinh todn Viec thilt lap md hinh dua tien khdi lupng ldn tdi lieu dia hinh, thiiy van khdo sat, thu thap dugc nhu:
- Dii lieu dia hinh: Bdn do md hinh cao dp so khu vuc nghien cihi dugc xay dyng vdi do phdn giai 1 Ox 10 m tir bdn dd dia chinh ea sd ty IS 1:50.000 va 1:10.000 cdng bd nam 2005.
Cdc mat cat ngang sdng cho khu vyc nghien ciiu ke thua tir ket qua cac nghien ciiu tnrdc day cua Vien Quy hogch Thiiy lgi [3].
- Dii lieu khi tugng thuy van: So lieu mua 6 gid tai tiam thuy van Ciing Son 2009; So lieu luu lugng vd muc nude gid tgi tigm An Khe, Cling Son, myc nude gid tai cdc trgm Ayunpa, Phil Lam nam 2009 vd nam 2010.
Hinh 2: Dudng qud trinh luu lupng tgi cdc biin md hinh
' Du lieu vlt lu Hch sii thang 10/1993 da dupe Vien Quy hogch Thuy lgi dilu tra, dii liSu vet lu-thu thap ti-an lu 11/2009 do Cdng ty cd phin sdng Ba Ha dilu tra.
4 TAP CHf KHOA HOC VA C O N G N G H E THUY LOl 5 6 29 - 201S
/finA 3: Bdn do DEM 10x1 Om vd sa hpa vi tri vit lii 2009 vung hg luu sdng Ba Mo hinh thuy luc 1 ehilu cho hp thing sdng Ba dugc thiet lap dya tren co sd dii Ueu GIS mang ludi he thdng sdng tren co sd bdn dd sd hda ti le 1:50.000 vd he thing du lieu mgt cdt ngang song [2,3]. Md huih dugc thilt lap gdm 1.384 mit, 4 he thdng sdng chmh, 18 bien luu lugng muc nude. He thdng mat cit ngang dugc dua vdo md hinh thuy lyc mang ludi sdng bao gdm 91 mat cat thyc do va mgt s6 cdc mat cat gid dinh.
b. Thiet lap md hinh
Md hinh thuy lyc hai chieu cho viing bai tran phia ha luu sdng Ba dugc gidi hgn trong pham vi vung ngap dy kien thugc 5 huyen Son Hda, Sdng Hinh, Phii Hda, Tay Hda, Ddng Hda vd thanh phd Tuy Hda ciia tinh Phu Yen dya tren ca sd bdn do dia hinh ket hgp vdi mgt sd tdi Heu khdo sdt trdn lii Hch su ndm 1993 nhdm ddm bdo bao tnim todn bd vung ngap lyt.
Ban dd DEM khu vuc nghien ciiru vdi dp phdn gidi 10x10 dugc sir dyng xay dung ludi tmh toan cho md hinh MIKE 21FM. Nen dia hinh nay da dugc cap nhap he thdng diem cao dp ciia mang ludi dudng sdt, dudng qudc Ip trong khu vyc nghien ciiu. Khu vyc nghien ciiu dugc rdi rgc hda theo ludi phan tu hiiu ban vdi dien tich ciia phdn tii ldn nhat la 14.400 m^, gdc nhd nhdt 27o. Toan vung hg luu duge chia thdnh 75.138 phan tii vdi 38.769 mit ludi.
Hinh 4: Ludi tinh todn 2 chiiu vd dy:ng hinh 3D viing hg luu sdng Ba Tien hanh kit ndi (Coupling) trong MIKE FLOOD giua md hinh thuy luc 1 chieu vd 2 chieu bing 135 diem ket ndi bien bd ta sdng Ba va 197 diem ket ndi bien bd hiiu sdng Ba.
Md hinh sau khi ket ndi dupe hieu chinh vd kiem dinh vdi 2 trdn lii tren khu vyc Id tran lu nam 2009 va 2010.
Hinh 5: Minh hpa kit ndi 1-2 chiiu vung hg luu sdng Ba
Hieu chinh vd kiem dinh md hinh
Dua tren eac ddnh gia vd sd lieu da thu thap, trdn m tir 01 din 08/11/2009 dugc lya chpn dl hieu chinh vd tran lu tir 01 din 08/11/2010 dugc lua chgn de kilm dinh md hinh. Chenh
TAP C H l KHOA HOC VA C O N G N G H E T > 1 U Y LOl S 6 29 • 2015
KHOA HOC
Ipch myc nude tmh toan va thyc do tgi trgm Ayunpa dgt 6cm, tai tram Cung San dgt 10cm, tgi tram Phii Lam dat 3cm vdi chi tieu Nash dgt logi tdt (tren 0,9). Trong khi so sanh sd lieu vet lu giira tmh todn va thyc do cho thiy md hmh da md phdng tuong doi tdt myc nude lu vdi chenh Ipch myc nude tai cdc vi tri vlt lii dgt 5^21cm.
Hinh 6: So sdnh ket qud tinh todn vd thuc do tgi trgm thuy vdn Phu Ldm (Dudng mdu xanh la ket qud md phdng, dudng mau den la so lipu thye do)
Hinh 7: So sdnh kit qud tinh todn vd thuc do tgi trgm thuy vdn Cung San
Hinh 8: So sdnh kit qud tinh todn vd thuc do tgi trgm thuy vdn Ayunpa
Tren ca sd dd, mgng thuy lyc, bp thong so mo h dirpc sii dyng kilm djnh voi tran Hi nam 2010.
Hinh 9: So sdnh ket qud tinh todn vd thifc do tgi trgm thuy vdn Ayunpa (Dudng mau xanh Id ket qud md phdng, dudng mdu den Id sd lipu thyc do)
Hinh 10: So sdnh kit qud tinh todn vd thuc do tgi trgm thdy vdn Cung San
Hinh 11: So sdnh kit qud tinh todn vd th^c do tgi trgm thuy vdn Phu Ldm
Su dyng md hinh vdi bp thong sd da hieu chinh d tren, kit qua tinh toan myc nude tgi trgm thuy van Ayunpa, Ciing San, Phii Lam
TAP CHf KHOA HOC VA C O N G N G H £ TWCIY LOI S 6 29 - 2015
dugc so sdnh vdi sd lieu quan trie nhu tren hinh 7. De dang nhan thiy miic dp phu hgp giua tinh toan vd thyc do cd vl tii sd, diln biln qud hinh vd gid tri dinh lii. Chenh lech myc nude dinh Iii dgt 4 cm den 17 cm tuong iing tgi cdc tram thuy van. Chi tieu danh gid sy phii
I KHOA HOC I ^ E I M i B S ^ B
hgp giiia tinh toan va thuc do Nash dgt logi tdt (ti-en 0,9).
2.3. Xay dung ban do ng^p lut ha luu luu vwc song Ba tuong iing vdi cac cap bao dong tai tram thuy van Phii Lam
Bang 1: Muc nuorc tai tram thiiy van Phii Lam tuong ung voi cac cap bao dpng Cap bao dpng
TTV.Phu Lam
Ill(m) 3,7
III+lm(m) 4,7
III+2m (m) 5,7
Lu lich su(m) 5,21 Ket qua tinh todn vdi cac trudng hgp myc
nude tgi tram thiiy van Phu Ldm tuong iing vdi cdc cap bao dpng dugc xuit ra dudi dgng file ASCII, va sau dd xu ly bdng phan mem qudn ly du lipu GIS nham xay dyng cac viing ngap lyt vdi dg sdu nggp khac nhau thanh cac ldp thong tin (layers) tren nen GIS. Tir dd ket hgp vdi cac ldp thdng tin khdc nhu: Ranh gidi hdnh chinh, dudng giao thong, dan cu, thye vat, dia hinh, thuy van... de hinh thdnh bd ca sd dii lieu GIS ve ngap lyt trong do ldp thdng tin quan trpng la quy mo ngdp lyt vd dp sdu ngap lyt tdi da.
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Hinh 12: Ket qud md phdng ngdp lut hg luu sdng Ba tuong ung vdi muc bdo dpng III+2m
tgi trgm thuy vdn Phu Ldm Cac ldp thdng tm nay dugc xay dyng tir cdc dii lieu sd trich tryc tilp tir ket qud ciia md hinh, sii dyng cac cdng cy ndi suy, ngoai suy de xdc djnh cao trinh ngdp cho todn vung, sau dd ket
hgp vdi nin dia hmh de hieu chinh, loai bd sai sd trude khi tham khdo y kien dia phuang ve miic dp chinh xac eua cac bdn do ngap lyt.
Hmh 13, 14, 15, 16 minh hga cho ban dd sdn phim ve muc nude va dp sau ngap lyt tdi da ling vdi cac cap bao ddng.
Hinh 13: Bdn do nggp Id tuang img cdp bdo ddng III, thdnh phd Tuy Hda Ket qud ciia nghien ciiu da dugc dp dung trong cdng tdc chi huy phdng chdng lyt bao ndm 2014 d cap trung uong vd dia phuang. Dya tren thdng tin ngap lut, ranh gidi hanh chinh dl xac dinh dien tich nggp theo cdc cap do d tiing dan vi hanh chinh vd ket qua ciia nghien ciiu nhan dugc su ddng tinh ciia dia phuang eiing nhu ciia Cue Phdng chdng thien tai ddi vdi miic dp phu hgp cua ket qud tinh todn va khd ndng ling dyng trong thuc tl.
TAP CHl KHOA HOC VA C O N G N G H E T H C I Y LOI S 6 2 9 - 2015
KHOA HOC ^ E S 3 ! B ! ^ B
Hinh 14: Bdn do ngdp lu tuang img cap bdo
dpng III +lm thdnh pho Tuy Hda Hinh 16: Bdn do nggp Id twang img Id lich w thdnh pho Tuy Hda
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Hinh 15: Bdn dd ngdp lu tuong ung cap bdo dpng III +2m thdnh pho Tuy Hda
Hinh 17: Dudng quan h$ di4n tich nggp It^t viing hg luu sdng Ba tuong irng vai cdc cap bdo dpng trin dia bdn cdc huy^n thupe tinh
Phu Yen.
Bang 2: Dien tich ngap lut vung ha luu song Ba tuong ung vdi cac cap bao ddng Huyen/Thanh Pho
TP Tuy Hoa H.Phil Hoa H. Dong Hoa H. Tay Hoa H. Song Hinh H. Son Hoa Tong cong
CBDI (ha) 846 919 2.329 2.141
6.235 CBDII
(ha) 1.405 1.501 3.198 3.382
9.486
CBDIII (ha) 3.650 4.148 4.656 8.581 1.688 1.432 24.155
CBDIII+1 (ha) 6.375 8.130 12.357 12.660 2.873 2.471 44.866
CBDIII+2 (ha) 6.650 8.400 13.355 13.511 3.606 3.104 48.626
LLS (ha) 3.603 8.076 9.445 13.144 2.992 2.586 39.846 Ket qua md phdng bdng mo hmh cho thdy miic
dp anh hudng ciia ngdp lyt ddi vdi viing ha luu sdng Ba la rat ldn, dien tieh nggp lyt cd the len tdi 48.626 ha khi myc nude tai Phii Lam dat miic
+5,7m (tuai^ in^ vdi miic bao dgr^ III+2m).
3. KET LUAN
Trong nghien ciiu nay, md hinh kit ndi 1-2D
TAP CHl KHOA HOC VA C O N G N G H ? T > 1 0 Y L O I S 6 29 - 2015
I iTHOAHOC l - j - l l ' U l ' H ' l - M da dugc su dung md phdng dien biln nggp lut van Phii Lam, cung cap thdng tin day du, chi d viing hg luu sdng Ba. Ket qud md phdng cd tilt phyc vu cho cdng tac phdng trdnh lyt bao do tin cay va phii hgp vdi cdc s6 lieu hien cd. va giam nhe thien tai tren dia ban ha luu sdng Ket qud eiia md hirih la co sd dl xay dyng ban Ba thugc tinh Phii Yen, ddng thdi day se Id ca dd ngdp lut da dugc xdy dyng vdi tran lii lich sd khoa hpc de tiep tue trien khai cac nghien sii 1993 vd theo cdc cap bdo ddng tgi tram thuy ciiu tilp theo trong thdi gian sap tdi.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
[1] Vien Quy hoach Thiiy lgi, Xdy dyng bdn dd nggp lut theo phan cip bdo dgng lu ha luu Ddng Cam, 2000
[2] Vien Quy hogch Thuy lgi, Quy hoach sir dyng tdng hgp ngudn nude luu vuc sdng Ba, 2002-2006
[3] Vien Quy hogch Thuy lgi, Ra sodt, bd sung Quy hogch phdng chdng lu cdc tinh tu Quang Binh din Binh Thuan, 2009 -2011
[4] Vien Quy hoach Thuy lgi, Nghien ciru danh gid tac dgng cua cae cdng trinh thiiy lgi, thuy dien, giao thdng, co sd ha tdng den IQ lut d mien trung va cac giai phap hieu qiia, khd thi de phdng tranh va gidm nhe thiet hai, 2011-2013
[5] Vien Quy hogch Thuy lgi, Nghien ciiu danh gid tiem nang, hien trang sir dung nguon nude mat de edn bang nude va de xudt cac giai phap nang cao hieu qua sii dyng, bao ve tai nguyennudcben vihig cho vung Nam Trung bd, 2012-2015.
[6] Trung tam tu van va kiem dinh an toan dap - Cdng ty cd phan Sdng Ba Ha, Nghien eiiu lap bdn do ngdp lut cho ha du khi xa cac cdng trinh thiiy dien sdng Ba Ha, Sdng Hinh va Krdng H'Nang, 2013
TAP CHl KHOA HOC VA C O N G N G H £ T H O Y LOI S6 29 - 2015
