CHilMH S A C H SL T H I
T R U C I N GT A I C H I N H - TIEIM T E
A p dung VSI - Speculation Index -
Chl s d phan anh buc t r a n h dau c o t r e n thi t r u o n g chung khoan Viet N a m
TS. VU DU'C NGHTA
Thi trudng ehung khodn (TTCK) niem yit Viet Nam dd hinh thdnh vdphdt triin hon 15 ndm nay, kem theo dd Id suphdt trien ciia he thong ea sa hg tang diphuc vu thi trudng, trong dd cd he thdng cdc chi so, nhu Id thudc do. Id cdng cu qudn ly thi trudng, cdng cu phdn tich phuc vu viec ra quyit dinh mua bdn chimg khodn cua cdc
nhd ddu tu. He thdng chi sd tren TTCK Viet Nam duac phdt trien tie hai chi sd cua hai sd giao dich Id VN-Index vd HNX-Index (trudc Id HASTCIndex). Hien nay, he thdng chisd cho TTCK Viet Nam da da dgng han, phdn dnh dung ddn hem vd sdu sdc han ve thi truang vdi su ra ddi cua rdt nhieu chi sd mdi nhu Bd chi sd VSI, chi sd
VN30, chi sd HNX30, bd chi sd Chimg khodn Tap dodn Ddu khi Qudc gia Viet Nam...
Tuy nhien, he thdng cdc chi sd ndy hdu het tap trung vdo ehi sd gid, nhdm theo doi dien bien gid cua timg thi truang... Trong khi dd, de qudn ly thi trudng ciing nhu phdn tich ddu tu, cdn quan sdt thi trudng a nhieu gdc do khac ngodi dien bien ve gid, nhu tinh thanh khodn, hogt ddng mua bdn cua cdc nhd ddu tu tren thi trudng, tdm ly cita nhd ddu tu tren thi trudng... Vi vgy, bdi viet se gidi thieu mdt bd chi sd mdi, bd chi sd ddu ca cua TTCK Viet Nam (VSI- Speculation Index). Bd chi sd VSI- Speculation Index duac diing di do "sdng ddu eo" tren TTCK Viet Nam, giiip cdc nhd qudn ly vd nhOng ngudi mua bdn chimg khodn theo doi thi trudng, ldm cdn cir phdn tich de dua ra cdc quyet dinh ve qudn ly hoac dau tu.
Tir khda: ddu tu tdi chinh, ddu ca, chi so, chieng khodn, riii ro
\. Gioi thieu
TTCK tdn tai hai khai niem ddi lap la diu tu va dau ca. Trai vdi diu tu, diu ca thudng gin vdi nhung ygu td ngin ban va rui ro. Trong
khi, nhiing cau hdi thudng dugc dat ra la khi ban tham gia vao TTCK, ban theo khuynh hudmg dau tu hay diu ca? Ban la nha diu tu hay dau ca? Cd philu nay la cd phidu diu CO hay dau tu? Va thi tmdmg dang trong giai doan dau tu hay diu ca?
Thi tmdmg trong giai doan dau ca la khi cac
2 8 AP CHi KHOA HOC & DAO TAO NGAN HAN SO'173-MNG 10.2016
Chfnh sach SL thj truong Tai chfnh - Tien t e
CO phidu dau ca dugc mua ban sdi ddng, neu kdt hgp vdi su tang diem cua chi sd thi trudng, thi dd thay day la thdi digm nhigu cd phidu se theo con sdng dugc day ldn gia cao. Dieu nay tat nhign quan trpng ddi vdi nhung nha dau ca. Nhung ddi vdi nhiing nha dau tu, day chac ban cflng khdng la thdi didm tdt dd mua vao, du cd phidu ban chpn la cd phieu thudc loai dau tu. Trai lai, khi nhiing cd phieu dau tu dupc mua ban nhidu va thi trudng dang trong da giam digm hoac di ngang, thi day la thdi digm thi tmdmg trong giai doan tich Ifly trudc nhiing "con sdng" trong tuomg lai. Vdi tam quan trpng cua viec xac dinh tinh chat cua thi trudng nhu tren, mdt cau hdi khac dupc dat ra la: Lam thd nao dg xac dinh dupc tinh chat cda thi trudmg mdt each dinh lugng?
Luc nao thi tmdng trong giai doan dau tu? Luc nao thi trudng trong giai doan dau ca? Xay dimg chi sd VSI- Speculation Index (Chi sd VST dau co) se nhu mdt thudc do "sdng dau ca" tren TTCK Viet Nam, phuc vu nhiing ngudi quan tam den TTCK VN.
VSI- Speculation Index la he thdng chi bao (bd chi sd) phan anh biic tranh vd tinh hinh dau ca trgn TTCK Viet Nam. Bd chi sd tra ldi cau hdi boat ddng thi trudng dang nhu thd nao, khuynh hudng mua ban ciia cac nha dau tu trdn thi tmdng dang dign bign ra sao, cu thg hem la cac nha kinh doanh va dau tu chiing khoan dang tich cue mua ban cac cd phidu dau ca hay trai lai tap trang vao cac cd phidu dau tu, lieu boat ddng dau ca cd dang tang cao khidn gia ca cd phidu dang lgn cao gay nhigu rui ro hay khdng, va rat nhidu cau hdi tucmg ty. Vd mat ky thuat, chi sd dau CO la he sd tuomg quan giu'a khdi lugng giao dich khdp lenh cua "nhdm cd phidu dau ca" so vdi
"nhdm cd phieu dau ta" trdn TTCK Viet Nam. Miic chi sd cao phan anh thi trudng dang trong xu hudng
"dau ca" ngay cang gia tang, ngugc lai, chi sd giam phan anh ddng tidn cd xu hudng dd vao "nhdm cd phieu dau ta". Bd chi sd khi dugc su dung kem vdi cac chi bao khac vd gia se dem dgn cho cac nha quan Iy thi trudmg cung nhu cac nha dau to thgm nhigu thdng tin tham khao mang tinh dinh lugng hon, giiip hoan thidn hda ca sd ha tang cho mdt TTCK phat triln.
2. Xay dung chi so VSI-Speculation Index va Ihig dung
2.1. Xay dung chisd VSI- Speculation Index Hidn nay cac chi sd dang dugc ap dyng chinh thirc tren TTCK Viet Nam dugc ban hanh bdi UBCKNN bao gdm Bd chi sd HOSEIndex bao gdm VNI00 Index, VN30 Index, VNALL Index, VNMID Index, VNSML Index; Bd chi sd Sectorlndex cua Sd Giao dich Chiing khoan Thanh phd Hd Chi Mmh (HOSE); Bd chi sd TRI hidex cua HOSE; HNX Index; HNX30 Index; HNX30 TRI; Chi sd Large;
Chi sd MID/SMALL; Chi sd Tai chmh, chi sd Cdng nghigp, chi sd Xay dyng, Chi sd Upcom, Chi sd Upcom Premium cua Sd Giao dich Chiing khoan Ha Ndi (HSE). Tit ca cac chi sd trdn ddu la chi sd gia, do ludmg sy thay ddi vd gia cua cac cd phidu thupc cac nhdm khac nhau.
Ngoai ra, trdn thi trudmg cd nhieu he thdng chi sd dugc ap dung mang tinh djch vu do cac quy dau to, cdng ty quan ly quy hoac cac td chirc djch vu tai chinh xay dymg nham cung cap thdm cdng cy cho nha dau ta td chiic, ca nhan chuydn nghiep. Vi dy nhu Bd chi sd Chiing khoan Viet Nam (Vietaam Securities Indexes, viet tit la VSI), Bd chi sd PVN- Index... Cung nhu cac chi sd dang dupc ap dyng chinh thiic trdn TTCK Viet Nam, cac bd chi sd nay mdi chi dimg d do ludmg didn bien gia cua cac cd phieu thudc rd tinh chi sd.
Trdn thd gidi, ndn tang ly thuyet vd chi sd rat phat tridn, di kem theo dd he thdng chi sd dugc xay dyng
\ a ap dung ciing rat da dang, phat trien ca vg chigu rdng va chidu sau. Nhiing cdng ty chi sd ndi tidng the gidi nhu S&P Dow Jones Indices, FTSE Russell, MSCI da cho ra ddi hang nghin chi sd phuc vu cho thi trudmg d cac chau luc khac nhau nhu Chau Au, Chau My, Chau Phi, Chau A... cho cac cdng cy tai chinh khac nhau nhu cd phidu, trai phidu, bat ddng san... va hg cung cung cap nhieu loai chi sd khac nhau gdm chi sd gia (price index), chi sd kilm soat rui ro (risk control index), chi sd chiln lugc (strategy index)... Tai TTCK My- TTCK phat tridn vao bac nhat trdn thg gidi, Chi sd dau ca (cdn gpi la Speculation Index) dugc do bang ty Id giu:a khdi lugng giao dich cua TTCK My (AMEX) so vdi khdi lugng trdn san chiing khoan New York (N^SE). Cac cd phidu dugc giao dich tren san AMEX hiu hit la cd phidu dau ca, trong khi cac cd phidu giao dich trgn san NYSE hau hgt la cua cac cdng ty Idn va
IMNG 10.2016-SO 173 )P CHI KHOA HOC & BAO TAO NGAN HAf
2 9
Chfnh sach Sthi truong Tai chfnh - Tien te
dugc thanh lap hi lau ddi, dugc gpi la cac cd phidu diu ta; chi sd nay tang phan anh su gia tang cua cac boat ddng diu ca. Khi thi tradng tang, tam ly dau CO thudng d miic cao. Do do, khi chi sd nay cham miic cao bit thudng, biu het cac nha phan tich va cac nha diu ca cho ring do la mdt tin hieu dg kgt thuc mdt xu hudng di ldn. Nam 2008, khi thj tmdng NYSE Euronext mua lai AMEX, gay khd khan cho viec xac dinh khdi lupng cd phieu diu ca trgn san AMEX, nen chi sd Speculation Index khdng dugc duy tri nua.
Trong bai bao nay, tac gia de xuat Bd chi sd VSI - Speculation Index cho thi tmdng cd phidu Viet Nam, dugc xay dung theo phuang phap luan cua chi sd diu co (Speculation Index) trdn TTCK My va dupc nghidn curu, phat trign cho phu hgp vdi TTCK Viet Nam hien nay. Su khac bigt giua mdt TTCK My vdi lich su hinh thanh ban 200 nam, vdi nhumg thanh tyu va phat trien horn rat nhidu so vdi mdt TTCK Viet Nam non tre, mdi phat tridn chua dgn 20 nam, dem dgn nhiing khd khan nhat dinh khi ap dyng ly thuygt xay dung chi sd dau co (Speculation Index). Do vay, viec xay dung chi sd dau ca cho TTCK Viet Nam ddi hdi su am hidu thi tmdng sau sac cung nhu sy thau higu ly thuygt dau co, dg dua ra nhumg digu chinh phii hgp, mang tinh sang tao cho thi tradng Viet Nam. Vg mat ky thuat, chi sd dau CO la he sd taomg quan giua khdi lugng giao dich khdp lenh cila "nhdm cd phieu diu co" so vdi
"nhdm cd phigu diu ta" trgn TTCK Viet Nam. Mirc chi sd cao phan anh thi tmdng dang trong xu hudmg dau CO ngay cang gia tang, ngugc lai, chi sd giam phan anh ddng tign cd xu hudmg dd vao "nhdm cd phieu dau ta"
Cong thiec tinh:
Speculation Index = Z(i=l^m)Vj, ,,i)(X(i=l^n) V )-' '" '
Inv(i)-'
Trong do:
^spe(i)' K^hdi lupng giao dich cua cd philu i trong nhdm Speculative Stocks
^inv(i)' Khdi lugng giao djch cua cd philu i trong nhdm cd philu diu ta (Investment Stocks) m: Sd lupng cd philu trong nhdm Speculative Stocks
n: Sd lugmg cd philu trong nhdm Investment Stocks Cd phidu diu ta(Investment Stocks)bao gdm nhtmg
cd philu cd nln tang ca ban tdt vdi nhidu thdng tin hd trg ndi bat, thi gia cao vdi quy md nidm yet ldn, nii ro thip va dang dugc thi tradmg dinh gia thip.
Nhumg cd philu nay co trign vpng tang tmdng dai ban tdt va dp an toan cao (xem thdm Bang 1).
Cd philu diu ca thudmg cd thi gia thap, quy md nidm yit nhd ngn dg bj thau torn, miic nii ro cao va dao ddng vd gia kha manh trong ngan ban. Nha diu ca it quan tam ddn ket qua boat ddng kinh doanh cflng nhu thdng tin hd trg ddi vdi nhdm cd phigu nay, muc dich mua ban cua hp la bien dpng gia trong ngin han. Thanh khoan cao va bign ddng gia ldm ludn la diem hap dan cua cac cd phidu dau ca (Bang 2).
Nhdm cd phieu dau ca cdn gdm ca nhiing cd phigu mdi lgn san, vdi sy hgp siic cua mdt sd cd ddng ldn.
Sy hgp sire nay khien gia cd phidu dd dang tang cao.
Chinh vi vay, ranh gidi giiia dau ca va "lam gia"
rat mong manh. Ddi vai nhiing cd phidu cd quy mo niem ydt nhd va thj gia thap, gidi dau ca khdng tdn qua nhidu tign dg mua gom va nam gift, khi da kigm
Bang 1. TOP 20 CO phidu theo mtic von hda duOT lua chon vao nhom co phieu dau tu nam 2015
C6 phieu GAS CTG BID HPG FPT DPM MWG NT2 DHG BMP CTD DRC NTP NOT PNJ PAN PLC VSC VCS LAS
Thj gia (ng- hin VND)
46,9 20,9 24 31,4 47,3 32,2 69 26,1
68 124 122 47,9 61 136
31 36,5 36,3 69,5 48,7 32,4
Von hoa thj tryo-ng (ty VND)
88,876 77,819 75,555 23,015 18,803 12,236 9,653 7,149 5,927 5,639 5,277 4,377 3,780 3,559 3,047 3,035 2,933 2,878 2,581 2,522
He so P/E 6,7 13,6 13,6 7,0 8,6 9,8 11,8
4,9 11,4 12,2 12,0 11,8 11,7 11,4 10,7 13,5 8,4 10,6
9,2 6,3 Nguon: HOSE vd HSE
3 0 sP CHi KHOA HOC & BAO TAO NGAN HAf sO 173-IHANG 10.2
Chfnh sach Sthj tnuong Tai chfnh - Tien te
Bang 2. TOP 20 co phieu theo mirc von hoa dup'c lua chon vao nhdm co phieu dau cff nam 2015
C6 phieu
VCG LGC PDR IJC DIG SBT DXG PTl HHS
BMI BIC FIT TSC HQC BCC NBB HBC PET DLG PVX
Thj gia (ng- hin VND)
11,3 22 13,4
9,4 12,2 15,3 18,6 26 17,2 25,2 24,4 9,8 11,4
6,3 14,1 22,7 17,7 15,6 7,6 3,1
Vdn hoa thj tru-ffng (ty VND)
4,991 4,243 2,704 2,577 2,423 2,272 2,174 2,090 1,909 1,903 1,860 1,756 1,683 1,489 1,349 1,324 1,320 1,320 1,286 1,240
He so P/E 10,98
8,17 28,04
9,97 48,53 12,08 6,24 43,10
4,31 12,79 16,50 5,41 11,54 19,26 4,56 27,21 11,48 5,42 18,74
2,31 Nguon: HOSE vd HSE soat dugc lugng cd phidu luu hanh thi viec "digu khign" gia la trong tam tay.
Bd chi sd dau ca VSI- Speculation Index ma tac gia
dd xult trong bai bao nay bao gdm mdt chi sd tdng hgp phan anh miic dp diu co cua toan thj tmdmg;
cac chi sd nganh cip 1 theo chuin phan nganh cua ICB va 2 chi sd VSI- Speculative Stocks, VSI- Investment Stocks theo phuomg phap luan cua bd chi sd VSI dl danh gia hieu qua cua danh myc co philu diu ca so vdi danh myc cd phieu dau ta. Chi so dugc lya chgn vao rd "nhdm cd phidu dau ca"
hay "nhdm cd philu dau ta" dugc tidn hanh dinh ky hang nam dl dam bao rd cua mdi nhdm ludn phan anh dung nhit ban chat cua mdi nhdm cd phidu d timg giai doan thj tmdmg. Mdc chi sd dugc tinh tir dau nam 2012.
2.2. ifng dung bo chisd Speculation Index vdo TTCK Viet Nam
Chi s6 ddu ca VSl-Speculation Index phdn dnh tdm ly dao dgng mgnh & nhung viing nhgy cdm. 0 thj tmdmg Viet Nam, chi sd Speculation Index ddu d mirc cao trgn 100 digm cho thay nhdm cd phidu cd tinh diu ca ludn la nhdm tao thanh khoan va sy hap din cho thj tmdmg d hau hdt cac giai doan. Mirc do dau CO manh d giai doan dau (nam 2012), sau do giam dan vao nhirng nam sau phan anh miic dp tradng thanh dan cua TTCK. Chi sd nay cflng cho thay ddng tien do manh vao nhdm cd phidu dau ca khi giai doan thj tradng dang d mirc qua mua (tire viing dinh) va qua ban (vung day- nhumg vflng cd
Hinh 1. Bilu dd chi s6 Speculation Index va VN-Index tir nam 2012 tdi thang 10 nam 2015
S # ^e'°' ^0*' # N*^' ^ ' O* ^ ^ <,^' ^ ' .^^ S^ V * O"^ ^-S"' # ^ * V ' S * ' s^"' V*' c^'' ,JiS'' s*"'^*' ^^' s^' -^ c,^ ^"^
Nguon: Tdc gid xdy dung die lieu chi so VSI- Speculation Index du-a tren die lieu chieng khodn tir HOSE vd HSE
IHANG 10.2016-SO 173 ^P CHI KHOA HOC & DAO TAO NGAN HAh 31
Chfnh sach Sthj truong Tai chfnh - Tien te
Bang 3. Dg xult danh muc chi s6 trong bo chi so Cff VSI- Speculation Index
dau
Nhom chi so Chl so chung
Chl s6 nganh
Chl sd danh gia hieu qua
Ten chi so Speculation Index
Speculation Index- Technology Speculation Index- Industrials Speculation Index- Oil & Gas
Speculation Index- Consumer Services Speculation Index- Utilities
Speculation Index- Consumer Goods Speculation Index- Basic Materials Speculation Index- Financials VSI- Speculative Stocks VSI- Investment Stocks
mfli tdn mau dd d Hinh 1). Tam ly cua cac nha diu CO dao dgng kha manh d nhumg vimg nhay cam phan anh diing tam ly dam ddng trdn TTCK. Hg chinh la nhumg ngudi "qua tham lam" va cflng la nhumg ngudi "qua sg hai" do khdng chii ddng dugc quygt dinh dau ta cua minh ngn dl bi thi tradng rfl bd tmdc nhumg dgt tang gia manh.
Chi so VSI- Specualtion Index khi kit hgp v&i cdc chi bdo ky thudt khac dua trin chi so gid, mang din cdi nhin ro rdng han vi tdm ly nhd ddu tu vd diin biin thi tru&ng. Tam ly dao ddng cua cac nha diu CO va tam ly dn djnh cua cac nha diu ta lam nln tang tao nen su thanh cdng cho cac md hinh gia nhu
"tach cd quai", "day chu W", " diu va vai", "ngpn ddi cao, chat che", "nln phing"... Tai cac khu vyc nhu day chu U cua md hinh "tach cd quai" hay day thii 2 cua md hinh "day chu W" (nhu Hinh 2), chi
sd Speculation Index cao va cd mile dao ddng manh phan anh tam ly dao dpng manh cua cac nha dau ca, cac nha dau ca da ban ra rat nhilu cd philu dau ca tai -vung gia thip nay. Thi tmdmg trd ndn viing chac khi chi cdn lai cac nha diu tu manh it cd khuynh hudmg ban cd philu ra trong dot tang traang kl tilp. Va didm mua dung d md hinh nay la dinh nhanh bdn phai cua chu W. Nhumg nha dau ta vao thj tmdmg diing diem mua cua md hinh la nhftng ngudi kilm dupc lgi nhuan cao.
5(3 chisd Speculation Index- ngdnh cdng phdn dnh dimg dgc diim cua timg ngdnh, nganh Cdng nghe, dau khi, tai chinh, tai nguygn co ban la nhftng nganh cd mirc do dau co cao hon so vdi nganh cd tinh chat an toan nhu tidn ich, hang tidu dung va djch vy tieu dung. Do vay, nhtmg cd phigu thudc nhiing nganh thudng cd biln ddng manh, dugc cac nha dau ca quan tam va nhilu cl philu cua nhumg nganh do trd thanh cd philu diu ca. Sy bidn ddng cua chi sd dau ca d nhumg nganh nhu vay thudmg manh hom d cac nganh khac. Do vay, nhflmg nganh do thudmg dugc ggi la nhftng nganh dau ca. Tuy nhidn, su phan chia d day chi mang tinh chit taomg ddi va d nhflmg thdi dilm xac djnh.
Cflng can cd sy phan bidt ro "hoat ddng diu ca" va
"boat ddng lam gia". Hoat ddng diu co la mdt hoat ddng thudng thiy trdn thj tmdng tai chinh, tao tinh thanh khoan, nhftng biln ddng gia trong ngin ban va tao ndn sy hip din nhit djnh cho TTCK. Diu co
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Hinh 2. Mo hinh gia "day chu' W" va su' ru bd nhirng nha dSu cff nam 2015
^^Speculation Index —— VNIndex
"^^^^'^^^^^^y<^Zi^l^his6m-Sp:::atio:ZexdZin^^^^ '""^
3 2
AP CHI KHOA HQC & BAO TAO NGAN HAKtie HOSE vd HSE
S O ' 1 7 3 - W A N C 10.11
Chfnh sach S. thj truong Tai chfnh - Tiente
Hinh 3.
Biiu do chf s6 VSI- Speculative Stocks va VSI- Investment Stocks nam 2015 950 . ^^Speculation Index r 330
VSI - Speculative Stocks VSI - Investment Stocks
..-!*
Nguon: Tdc gid xdy dung die lieu chi so VSI- Speculation Index diea tren die lieu chimg khodn lieHOSEvdHSE
nham hudng chdnh lech tir bign ddng gia ngan ban.
Ban chat cua boat ddng nay khdng cd gi xau hay sai trai, ndu khdng cd tinh trang Iflng doan, hay tao giao djch ao lam meo md thi tmdmg.
De danh gia didn bign gia cua 2 nhdm cd phidu dau CO va dau ta, 2 chi sd VSI- Speculative Stocks va VSI- Investment Stocks dugc xay dimg theo ty trpng dua tren gia trj vdn hda cd phidu ty do chuygn
nhugng. Mdc chi sd cflng dugc tinh tu dau nam 2012.
VSI- Speculation Index vd VSl- Speculative Stocks, chi bdo y nghia ddnh cho nhimg nhd ddu ca hu&ng t&i dao dong gid trong ngdn hgn.
Nhin vao didn bidn chi sd ngan han d thdi didm chi sd dau ca dang d miic cao nhat (thang 5/2015-thdi didm day thii 2 cua md hinh chft W da de cap d Hinh 2 cho thay miic dao ddng manh cua didn bidn gia nhdm cd phidu dau ca so vdi nhdm cd phidu dau ta. Tinh tir 18/5/2015 dgn 12/6/2015, Chi sd VSI- Speculative Stocks cd mile tang 18,85%, trong khi chi sd VSI- Investment Stocks chi dat mirc tang 8,5%. Khi chi sd giam thi didn bign gia nhdm Speculative Stocks cung giam 13,75% miic giam sau hom nhdm cd phidu dau ta (VSI- Investment Stocks giam 7,04%). Nhidu ma cd phidu "ndng".
Hinh 4. Bieu do VCG thuoc nhom cq phieu dau cff dao dpng gia manh trong ngan han
lirger Band Cerrter 20 Upper Band 2
Nguon: Die lieu tir HOSE vd HSE
cd tinh dau ca nhu VHG, PLC, FIT tang gia nhanh, manh trong thdi gian ngan. Tai thdi didm cudi nam 2015, cac cd phidu mdi ldn san nhu GTN, KLF...
thu hiit ddng tidn ldn. Rd thanh phin cua chi sd VSI- Speculative Stocks do tac gia dd xuit dem den nhiing ggi y cho cac nha d i u
IHANG 10.2016-SO 173 \? CHi KHOA HOC & DAO TAO NGAN HA
3 3
oKrr.Hg^nh& thi t r u g n g Tai chfnh - T ^ n te
Bilu dd GAS thuoc nhom c6 p h i l u " £ fu dao dong gia nho trong ngdn h,n
I GAS I Bollinaer Band Center 20 Upper Band 2 Lower Band 2
«-105.'optl!2I/10)
Ngudn: Die lieu lie HOSE Hinh 6. Bilu dd chi s6 VSI- Speculative Stocks va VSI- Investment Stocks tir
nam 2012 tdi thang 12/2015 Speculatton iBdex
V S I - Specnlathe Stocks VSI-InTcstmeBt Stodis
cd philu cd tinh dauta.
Danh muc co phiiu ddu tu- su
lua chon ciia cdc nhd ddu tu thong thdi trong ddi hgn. Tinh tir nam 2012 din miic dinh tang tmdng nam 2014, chi sl VSI- Speculative Stocks cd mile do dao dpng gia cao nhit la+114,44%.
Ngupc lai, Chi so VSI- Investment Stocks lai cd mirc tang tmdng dai ban het sire ngoan myc, +205,4%.
Kit qua nay toong xiing vdi dac diem cita nhdm nha dau ta chuygn nghiep, hp chu ddng duac tam ly va ngudn vdn dai ban cua minh va dg di den quylt djnh dau tu hp trai qua mpt qua trinh nghien
^'!^•V>•\•»'•'V•^*'o'''••>'••'^«*^»•'''''^•^'' V * o""" o " " "-^ »""''' ^•''' '•'''° '^^ ^'' •>*' '^'^ ^ " ^ ' " "'""' -^^
Ngudn • Tdc gid xdy dung dU lieu chi sd VSI- Speculation Index dua ti'in die lieu chimg khodn lieHOSEvdHSE ca, giup hg lua chgn dugc nhirng cd phieu tigu bieu.
Vdi dac thil dao ddng vl gia manh trong ngan han, nhumg cd phieu dau co chi phu hgp vdi nhumg ngudi kinh doanh chimg khoan chuyen nghigp do cd thg kiem soat dugc thdi didm mua va ban hgp ly. Nhung ngudi mdi tham gia thj tmdng, chua cd nhieu kinh nghiem ngn can trgng. Thyc te nhieu vi du trong qua khir tren TTCK cho thay cd phieu dau CO cd mirc dp dao ddng gia manh trong ngan ban nhung vg dai han thi hieu qua dau tu thap hom nhdm
cum ky luong ve nln tang co ban cua cd phidu, hoat ddng kinh doanh cua cdng ty. Nhung thdi didm mua vao cd phigu do cflng mgt phin dugc quylt djnh bdi sy quan sat thj tmdmg de cd thd mua dugc gia re.
3. Ket luan
Nhiem vy tmdc hit cua cac chi sd la lam thudc do cua thi tmdmg, phuc vy cho viec quan sat, quan ly thj hm:dng va ra quylt djnh quan ly, cflng nhu mua ban, diu ta. He thdng chi sd phyc vy cho TTCK Viet Nam hien nay da kha phat triln vdi nhidu chi
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AP CHI KHOA HOC & DAO TAO NGAN HAF S0173-IHANG 10.21Chfnh sach & thi truong Tai chinh - Tien te
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Bilu do BMP thupc nhom co philu dau tir co mirc tang manh trong dai han
p i 6c;fc-gsf Band ;
Nguon: Die lieu tie HOSE
so, thg hien cai nhin sau hom vg thj tradng.Tuy nhidn cac chi sd hau bdt Iai chi dang tap tmng vao chi sd gia, dung de quan sat sy thay ddi vd gia cua thj trudng.
Trong bdi canh dd, chi sd VSI- Speculation Index dugc dd xuat trong bai bao nay dem dgn mdt ddng gdp
xem tiip trang 42 TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
/. GS. TS. Nguyin Van Xam. PGS.. TS To Ngoc Himg, TS VU Due NghTa, 2013.
khoan Viet Sam ". Hd Xoi: XXB Khoa hoc va Kv ihudt. "Xay dung va hodn thien he thong chisd chimg 2. Inveslorpedia. "Speculation Index ".
3. Michael Lemmon and Sophie X.Xi, 2008. "The Effects of Im-estor Sentiment on Speculative Trading and Prices of Slock and Index Options ".
4. Xguyen Kien, 2013. "Ddu ca, ddu lu hay danh bgc vcri chung khodn? ". Hanoi: Vielstock.
5. Steven A.Schoenfeld, 2004. "Active Index Investing: Maximinizing Portfolio Performance and Minimizing Risk Through Global Index Strategies ". Willey Finance.
SUMMARY
Application of \ SI — Speculation Index — The reflection of speculative trend at Vietnam Stock Market Viemam stock market has over 15 years of development, accompanied by the development of infrastructure to serve the market, including a system of indicators, as measure, analysis, and management tools for decision making in market management, as well as in stock buying and selling. From the first two indexes, VN-lndex and HNX-lndex (previously known as HASTC Index), currently the system of Viemam stock market indicators is more diverse to provide more accurate and deeper measure of different aspects of the market. Many new indicators has been introduced such as Viemam Securities Index family, VN30 Index, HNXSO Index, PIN Index Family, etc ...
However, almost current indexes fust focnts on measuring the price side, while in order to manage the market or make buy-sell decision, market observers need to analyze many other aspects such as liquidity, investor behavior, and so on. That is the reason why this article introduces a set of new indicators, VSI-Speculation Index Family (called VSl- speculation index). Unlike other current price indexes in Viemam slock market, VSI-Speculation Index Family is used lo measure investor behavior, especially measure "wave of speculation " on Viemam stock market, which helps managers and securities traders have more tools to monitor and analyze the market. The index family serves as references for decision making on market management and investment.
Keywords: financial investment, speculation, indices, stocks, risk, Vietnam stock market.
Nghia Due \ u . PhD.
Working Organization: Woori CSV Company Field of study: Finance- Banking
Magazines have published articles: Banking Review, Banking Science and Training Review Email: [email protected]
THONG TIN TAG GIA Vu DITC NghTa, Tien sT
Dem vi cong tdc: Cong ty Cd phan Chiing khoan Woori CBV Linh vuc nghieri ciru chinh: Tai chinh- Ngan hang
Tgp chi lieu bieu dd cd bdi viet ddng tdi: Tap chi Ngan hang: Tap chi Khoa hoc \ a Dao tao Ngan hang Email: n'[email protected], [email protected]
WANG 10.2016-SO 173 \P CHI KHOA HOC & DAO TAO NGAN HAN
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tMAI WEU THAM K H A O . , ^ , r- • „
I. Becker, 'c. L, Defend M L. Jiambalvo, J. & Subramanyam, K. R.. (1998), "The Effect ofAudU Quality on Earnings Manage- ment". Contemporary Accounting Research, vol 15, iss. l,pp. 1-24.
2 Boon, K. (2007). Compulsory Audit Tendering and Audil Quality: Evidence from Australian Local Government. Macquarie University. , . . , . , . • j , , • -
3 Bid Thi Thuy (2013) Nghien ciiu cdc nhdn Id dnh hucmg tin chdt luong kiem loan bdp cao tai chmh cua cac doanh nghiep niem yh tren thi Irucmg chimg khodn Viet Nam. Ludn dn lien sy. Trucmg Dai hgc Kmh te quoc dan.
4. Carlin, T M.. Finch, N. & Ford G., (2008). "Fair Value Impairment Testing Under IFRS: Examining Australia's Disclosure Quality'', Financial Reporting, Regulation and Governance, voi 7, iss. l.pp. 1-25.
5. De Angelo, L E., (1981). "Audit Size and Audit Quality ". Journal of Accounting and Economics, vol 3, pp. 183-199.
6. Defond M.L.& Jiambalvo, J., (1991), "Incidence and Circumstances of Accounting Errors ", The Accounting Review, vol 66, iss. 3. pp. 643-655.
7. Hd Thi Ngoc Ha (2011), Cdc gidi phap hodn thien, tdng mdng kiim sodt chdt lucmg cong tdc kiem todn bdo cdo tdi chinh cac dan vi CO lgi ich cong chitng. De tdi cdp ngdnh. Bo Tdi chinh.
8 Kiim todn nhd nu&c (2013), Quy trinh kiim todn du dn ddu tuxdy dung cong trinh.
9. Lennox, S C. (1999), Audit Quality and Auditor Size: An Evaluation of Reputation & Deep Pockets Hypotheses, Journal of Busi- ness Finance & Accounting, 26 (7-8), 779-885.
10. Ngo Diec Long (2002), NhO-ng gidi phdp ndng cao chdt lucmg kiim loan doc lap a Viet Nam. Ludn dn tien sy. Trucmg Dgi hoc Thuong mgi.
II. Nguyin Quang Quynh vd Ngo Tri Tue (2006), Gido trinh kiim todn tdi chinh, Nhd Xudt bdn Dgi hoc Kinh te quoc ddn, Hd Not SUMMARY
Research on external factors affecting the quality of auditing ODA capital-funded investment projects conducted by the the State Audit Office of Vietnam (SAV)
Although there are several factors that affect the quality of an audit, this research is only for the purpose of identifying and assessing to what extent external factors have effects on the quality of auditing investment projects funded by ODA capital. Based on qualitative and quantitative database, researches indicate that legal framework is a group of factors that has more important influences on the audit quality rather than a group of factors belonged to Project Management Board. Among the group of factors of legal framework, the level they affect the audit quality decreases gradually considered as the accordance to the Law of Auditing: the appropriateness to Audit Guidelines and to Audit process. Besides, among the group of factors of Project Management Board, the gradually decreasing level of affecting the audit quality is considered due to the cooperation within the Board: the capacity of the Board; the understanding of the Board and the quality of internal control. The research results can be seen as the basis on which the SAV focuses on improving the quality of auditing ODA-funded investment projects.
Keywords: Quality of auditing ODA-funded projects, external influence factors, SAV.
Nguyen Manh Cuong, MSc.
Working Organization: Deputy General Director, General Affairs Department, the State Audit Ofifice of Vietnam.
Field of study: Auditing.
THONG TIN TAG GlA Nguyen Manh Cufrng, Thac sy
Do-n vi cong tdc: Pho Vu tnidng Vu Tong hgp, Kilm toan Nha nuac LTnh vu-c nghien cieu chinh: Kiem loan
Tgp chi lieu bieu da co bdi viet ddng tdi: Tap chi Nghien ciiu khoa hgc kilm toan Email: [email protected]
tiip theo trang 3 5 tidu chi cua nha d i u ta va dac dilm ctia moi nhdm cd philu, bd chi sd phan anh mile do diu co, VSI- mdi, vdi cai nhin mdi trong viec xay dyng va su Speculation Index la mgt chi bao y nghia giup ngudi dyng chi sd, do la thudc do tam ly nha diu ta trdn tham gia thj tmdng quylt djnh lya chgn loai cd thj tmdng, thudc do hanh dgng cila "dam ddng" trgn philu va thdi dilm mua/ban cd philu mdt each hgp thj trudng, hg dang ra sue diu co, hay ra su'c nit lui ly. Nhu da phan tich d tren, khdng chi nhiing nha khoi thi tmang... d i u ca cin quan sat mure dd d i u co trdn thi hudng, , Chi sd VSI-Speculation Index la mdt ylu td gdp ma chi sd cdn cd gia tri quan trong ddi vdi nhiing ' phan dem dgn cau tra ldi cho cau hdi lieu thj tmdng nha diu ta, khi mudn lua chon thdi dilm mua vao CO dang qua rut ro vi boat ddng dau ca sdi ddng hgp ly. Dac bidt, vide sir dung tham khao chi sd khong, cac CO phieu dau ca dang dugc mua ban VSI- Speculation Index c i n k i t hop chat che vdi cac nhieu hay nhtmg cd phidu dau ta. Can cu tren moi . / tLi
xem tiep trang 0 /
42 ^P CHI KHOA HOC & DAO TAO NGAN HAh
THUC TIEN & KINH NGHIEM QUOC TE
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nudc, kign quyet xir ly nhung ngan hang ygu, kem khdng cd tridn vgng phyc hdi, ddng thdi, cho phep cac td chirc tai chinh nudc ngoai tham gia vao thi ttm:dng frong nudc vdi Id trinh phu hgp. Bdn canh do, khuyen khich cac ngan hang ldn md rdng quy md •vuom ra thj tmdmg tai chinh frong khu vyc va thg gidi la mdt xu the tat ydu nham tan dung cac lgi ich to hdi nhap kinh tg qudc te.
Sdu Id, quy djnb co chd cung cap thdng tin day dii, minh bach, chinh xac, kjp thdi vdi he thdng du lieu day dti, cap nhat. Quy djnh nay khdng chi phuc 'vy cho cdng tac phan tich, dy bao ma cdn phuc •vy cho
viec dilu chinh ca chg chinh sach sat vdi ygu cau thyc tign.
Bdy Id, tang cudng dao tao, phat trign ngudn nhan lyc chit lugng cao vdi cdng nghe hgp ly dg bat kjp dugc sy phat trien cdng nghd cila cac nudc khac frong khu •vuc va qudc td. Can chii trgng dau to dao tao mdt ddi ngii nhan lyc chat lugng ca vd chuydn mdn lan ky nang, dap img ddi hdi cao trong mdi tmdng hgi nhap nhu ngay nay bdi ITnh vyc tai chinh- ngan hang ludn ddi hdi su nhay ben, sang tao va kha nang phan tich danh gia thj trucmg. •
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. Tap chi Kinh te va Du bdp sp 23, thdng 12 ndm 2014, Bp Ke hoach vd Ddu tu;
2. Cdc vdn kien gig nhdp WTO ciia Viet Nam (Bieu cam kel cu the ve dich vu). Ban Chi dgo lien ngdnh hpi nhgp quoc te ve kinh te, XXB Chinh tri quoc gia.
3. Bdi tham ludn tgi Hpi nghi Cong Idc doi ngogi ngdnh Idi chinh cua Thu tnedng Bp cong thucmg Trdn Qudc Khdnh.
4. Cdc gidi phdp kiem sodt an ninh tdi chinh Irong tien trinh tu do hoa tdi chinh cua Viet Xam hien nay, Le Xudn Vinh.
5. The ASEAN financial crisis, Singapore's experience and resppnse, ChiaSipw Yue
6. Financial Liberalizatipn and Ecpnpmic Integratian in East Asia, Yung Chui Park vd Kee- Hpng Bae 7. Recpveryfrpm the Asian Crisis and the Rple of the IMF. IMF
8. Integration of the ASEAN Banking Sector. Takashi Yamanaka
9. The Boom, Bust and Restructuring of Indonesian Banks, Marl Pangestu, Manggi Habir.
10. Financial liberalization in Thailand: Impact pn the Growth and Volatility of foreign investment in stock market and the slock market, Vasana Mahamam
SUMMARY
Enhancing global intergration in \'ietnam's finance- banldng sector- from Asean's experience In a progress of economic renovation, Vietnam has persistently promoted economic intergration by involving in multilateral, regional and bilateral commitments. Increasing global integration in terms of depth and width of the economy can be the significant support for economic restructure and growth model innovation that enables the economy to gain advantages in domestic level (with regard to better economic structure) and global level (in term of better market accessment), thus, further encouraging export and attracting global investment. However, the challenges have remained in many sectors df the economy where economic integration has taken part in, including finance-banking industry.
This paper investigated the obstacles in Vietnam's finance-banking system which has impeded the progress of financial integration. Then based on ASEAN nations' experiences, it proposed recommendations to promote global integration in finance- banking industry in a sustainable maner
Key word: financial integration, Viemam, ASEAN.
Nguyen Thi Diem Huong, M.Ec
Working Organization: Banking Faculty, Banking Academy THONG TIN TAC GIA
Nguyin Thi Diim Huong, Thac sy
Bern vi cdng tdc: Khoa Ngan hang, Hoc vien Ngan hang Lmh w c nghien ciru chinh: Tai chinh- Ngan hang EmaU: [email protected]
tiip theo trang 5 2
phan tt'ch vd khu vyc phi chinh thilc cd nhixng ngudi cung d p tin dung nhu ban be, ba con, hang xdm, day hui, ngucri thu mua ndng san, dai ly vat to ndng nghiep, ngucri cho vay nang lai... ndn thigu mdt gdc nhin toan dien vd boat ddng TCVM ttdn dja ban nay. •
tiip theo trang Ail
cdng cu khac nhu cdng cu phan tich ky thuat, hay cac chi sd gia, dac biet la be thdng Chi sd Chiing khoan Viet Nam- VSI Index. Sy kdt hgp cua cac cdng cu se giup nhiing nha quan ly, kinh doanh, va dau to chiing khoan cd cai nhin nhidu chieu, sau sic va chuygn nghiep hom vg thj tradng. •
Tiiuir in ifWk (n 17^
