DiT BAO XU T H ^ PHAN BO KHONG GIAN CUA R A Y NAU (Nilaparvata lugens) - ifNG DUNG HE THONG THONG TIN
DIA LY (Geographic Information System)
V6 Quang Minh', Pham Van Quynh\
Pham Minh Hie'u', TrUcfng Chi Quang', Tran Thi My Sdn'
'Bo mon Tdi nguyen ddt dai, Khoa NN& SHifD, Dai hoc Cdn Tha
' Chi cue Bdo ve thiic vat TP Cdn thcf Email: [email protected];
TOM TAT
TrUde day, edng tac d a n h gia va dg bao cae loai dich hai trong ndng nghiep ehu yeu dga vao eac t r a m quan t r i e tai mgt dia phuang, viec dg doan p h a m vi edng nhU kha n a n g lay lan eua cae loai dich h a i cho cac vung xung quanh chUa duge p h a n tieh ddnh gia. Ung dgng ky t h u a t GIS, sd dgng phuang p h a p thd'ng ke, ndi suy khdng gian vdi cac md'i tuang quan va hdi quy eua cac ydu td a n h hudng den sg hien dien va bde p h a t eua r a y nau dugc sd dgng de ngi suy md phdng xu the p h a n bd' khdng gian cua m a t sd r a y nau. Ket qua xac dinh dugc sU tuang quan cua mgt so' ye'u to' khi hau, canh tac vdi m a t so' eda r a y nau gay hai Ida d mdt so' giai doan sinh trudng duge khao s a t tai 120 rugng thi nghiem (dgt 2 va ca vg Ddng Xuan 2003 - 2004) tai xa Trung An, Thdt Ndt, Can Tha. Dga t r e n phUUng t r i n h hdi quy tuang quan dU doan duge xu the p h a t t r i e n eua ray nau cho toan vung khao sat d cae giai doan sinh trUdng va ca vu. Tuy n h i e n , ket qua dg doan le thugc nhieu vao cac yeu td nhU khi hau, gid'ng, ky t h u a t canh tac, v.v. va sg tUang quan cua cac yeu td a n h hudng, cac vung sinh t h a i k h a c n h a u edng vdi cae ye'u td k h a c da a n h hudng den sg p h a t sinh cua cae loai dich hai.
Abstract
The spatial eorelation between c h m a t e and BPH transmission was surveyed using data collected from 120 different locations within the Trung An village, Thot Not district, Cantho city. Using Geographic Information System (GIS) and geostatistic technique were used to monitor t h e spatial eorelation between environmental and chmatie variables. A Global Positioning System (GPS) was used to record the spatial location of the data. Climatic evidence suggests that rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature, and relative humidity are causal aspects in the prevalence of the BPH.
Findings from this research investigated t h e need for village level surveillance of BPH outbreaks, the level at which outbreaks are acknowledged to occur, as opposed
•:• HQI NGHI KHOA HQC CONG NGHE TO.\N QLOC VE BVTV LAN THL' 3 '>
to district level sur\'eillance. Rice plant factors, such as n u m b e r of leaves and the stage of grain maturity, also influence t h e density of the BPH. The density of BPH was obser\'ed to change with the different stages, seasons for rice growth, n e e variety, wind direction, etc.
Kej-words: Geographic Information System (GIS), P o t e n t i a l risk. Global Positioning System (GPS), geostatistical analysis, interpolation.
1. Md d a u
Hien nay, v-iec dU bao tinh h i n h sau b e n h hai cay trdng d DBSCL la mgt van de r a t cap thie't tai cac dan vi thgc h i e n cdng tae bao ve thue vat. Tuy n h i e n , viec canh bao dugc trien khai khi dich hai da b i t dau p h a t trien m a n h va p h a n ldn dga vao cac bao eao cua dia phuong. Do dd, de hd trg dg bao xu the p h a t t r i e n va kha nang bgc phat eac loai dich hai can thie't cd mdt he thdng hoac ky t h u a t gidp cac nha quan ly de xua't cac chie'n lugc quan ly ddng thdi gidp ngUdi ndng d a n ed ke hoach phong t r d hieu qua. Vdi phuang phdp thd'ng ke tUctog quan cac ye'u to' a n h hudng den sg hien dien va bgc phat eua ray nau, ket hgp vdi ky thuat ngi suy k h d n g gian va GIS co the dng dgng de dg doan duge m a t sd ray nau va xu the bie'n ddng k h d n g gian. Phucfng phap nay da dugc dng dgng trong nghien cdu p h a n bd khdng gian eac dac tinh tir nhien d iLbieu ndde t r e n the gidi (Burrough, P. A, 1986, Aronoff S. 1989)
2. Phu'ofng p h a p
Tien h a n h khao sat t r e n 120 rugng thugc Xa Trung An, Thdt Ndt, Can Tha, vg Ddng xuan (2003 - 2004), sd mau thu t h a p dinh ky 10 ngay/lan, gdm cac sd lieu k h i hau n h u n h i e t do tdi da, tdi thieu, a m do khdng khi, mgc nUdc rugng, ky t h u a t canh tac, gid'ng, mau la Ida, m a t so' t h i e n dich, m a t so' ray, lugng p h a n bdn, v.v.
Ray nau duge thu t h a p b i n g cac bay ray nau, m a t so' r a y duge t i n h theo edng thdc.
Hinh 1. VI tri cac diem khao sat d Xa Trung An, Thdt Ndt, Can Thu
•,,-, ..• i . / , 2^ Tdng s o ' r a y dem duae/ehdi r^.,, .- , i., 2 Mat so r a y nau (con/m ) = -, ^—^— •• x Tong so ehoi/m
Tdng sd chdi quan s a t
Bang 1 . Ca'p do canh bao mat so' ray (Ngudn: Cue Bao ve thi/c vat)
Giai iJoan sinh trirofng
Ctioi tfch cue
Truang thanh den chin
IVIat so' ray nSu (con/m^) It nhiem
500 - 1,000 1,500 - 3,000
Nhiem trung binh
> 1,000-2,000
> 3,000 - 6,000
Nhiem nhieu
> 2,000
> 6,000
II • HQI NGHI KHOA HQC CONG NGHE TOAN QLOC \ t BVTV LAN THLi 3 •
^86
Sd heu thu t h a p dggc xac dinh mdi tuang quan tuye'n t i n h gida cac dieu kien khi bau, canh tac, v.v vdi m a t sd r a y nau. Cac ye'u td cd tuang quan se dugc chgn de xac dinh hdi quy tUUng quan, phuang t r i n h hdi quy dugc sd dgng de dg doan m a t sd ray dua t r e n cdng thdc:
Mat sd r a y (con/m^) = A. x l + B X2 -t- C. X3 -1-...-1- Z.xn trong do: A, B, C,... Z la h i n g so',
xl,... xn: l i cac yeu td a n h h u a n g
Sd dgng ky t h u a t GIS va t h d n g ke dia ly, p h a n m e m GS-h, xay dUng md hinh bien ddng va ngi suy k h d n g gian xac dinh sg p h a n bd m a t do r a y nau. Ket qua ngi suy dg bao so s a n h do lech chuan so vdi ke't qua khao s a t thuc t e .
3. Ke't qua
Tuang quan tuyen tinh eua eac yeu t d a n h hudng de'n m a t sd ray d dgt thu mau lan thd 2 va ea vg duge xac dinh. Td dd, xay dgng hdi quy tuye'n t i n h cua cac yeu td ddi vdi m a t sd r a y nau va du doan m a t sd r a y nau dUa t r e n cac yeu td a n h hudng va phuang t r i n h tUUng quan hdi quy. Ket qua dg doan bao gdm ta't ca diem khao sat so s a n h vdi ke't qua k h a o sat thgc t e . Td k e t qua du doan va ke't qua thgc te, thie't lap md h i n h bien ddng khdng gian sU p h a n bd m a t sd r a y nau va ndi suy khdng gian sU p h a n bd cua m a t sd ray n a u cho toan khu vUc k h i o sat, so s a n h vdi ke't qua thUe te ve sU p h a n bd m a t sd r a y v i do lech chuan cua sU p h a n bd nay.
3.1. Tiiomg quan giUa mat sd rdy vdi cdc yeu td dnh hiidng
Dua t r e n ke't qua khao sat t r e n 120 rugng, 5 ye'u td a n h hudng den m a t sd ray nau vdi mdc do y nghia cao d dgt la'y mau t h d 2 trong dd yeu td tudi ray, m a t sd thien dich, nhiet do khdng khi, mgc nUde rugng, sd la cd tUang quan thuan ddi vdi mat sd ray. Trong khi dd, ddi vdi ca vg thi mgc nUde rudng va so' la khdng ed tuang quan vdi mat sd ray, ye'u td code mau la Ida va am do khdng khi ed tuang quan vdi mat sd ray va yeu td sd lan phun thudc sau cd mdi tUOng quan nghjch vdi m a t sd ray.
. B^ng 2. Tong hgfp ti/tfng quan tuye'n tmh cua cac ye'u to' ^nh hi/fifng fle'n mat flg riy nSu vu Dong Xuan 2003 - 2004 (flcft 2 va c i vu) tai xa Trung An, Tho't No't, Can Thof
Ye'u to'anh hiTofng
Tudi ray
IVIat sd thien dich/m^
Nhiet do KK (°C) Muc nirdc ruOnq (cm) Sd la /m^
Code mau la lua Am dp KK (%) Sd lan phun thuo'c
Mat so ray Deft 2""
0,80"
0,60"
0,42"
0 , 3 1 "
0,21 - - -
Ca vu OX 0,39"
0,45"
0,36"
- - 0,24"
0,22"
- 0 , 3 2 "
n= 118, : MUc y nghia 1%, : MUc y nghia 5%
•:• HQI NGHI KHOA HQC CONG NGHE TOAN QLOC VE BVTV LAN THLf 3 •
3.2. Hoi quy tiictng quan eda mat sd rdy vdi cdc yeu to dnh hiidng
Dua t r e n cac mdi tuang quan da dugc xac dinh d B a n g 2, p h a n tich hdi quy tiTcfng quan cua cac ye'u to' a n h hudng de'n m a t sd r a y d dgt k h i o s a t t h d 2 va ca vu va dugc sd dgng trong dg bao m a t so' ray.
Phuang t r i n h hdi quy m a t so' r a y vdi eac ye'u t d a n h hudng cua d g t 2 va ca vu n h u sau:
Mat sd Ray nau (con/m') = - 200,39 + (173,20 x tudi r a y ) + (1,44 x t h i e n dich) + (6,88 X n h i e t do khdng khi) - (5,53 x mgc nUde rudng) -i- (0,01 x sd la).
He sd xae dinh R^ = 0,66 (Dgt 2)
Mat sd Ray nau (con/m') = - 182,66 + (2,12 x t h i e n dich) -f- (37,84 x tudi ray) + (13,70 X n h i e t do khdng khi) + (72,19 x so mau la Ida) - (4,88 x a m do khdng khi) - (14,80 X so' l a n phun thud'c t r d sau).
He so' xae dinh R'= 0,41 (ca vg) 3.3. Du bdo mat sd rdy
Sg xua't h i e n cua r a y nau chiu a n h hudng cua nhieu ye'u to' nhU k h i h a u , ky thuat canh tae, gid'ng, thdi gian sinh trUdng, v.v. k h i c i c yeu to' n a y t h a y ddi se anh hudng den sU xua't hien m a t do cua r a y nau. Do dd, t u a n g quan hdi quy cd the du bao duge m a t sd r a y dga t r e n cac yeu to' a n h hudng.
Ket qua d a n h gia m a t so' r a y du bao cd tdang quan vdi m a t so' r a y thgc te dUa t r e n hdi quy tUang quan cua eac yeu to' vdi m a t so' ray, vdi h e so' tUang quan r^ = 0,81** cho dgt khao sat t h d 2 va r ' = 0,63** cho ca vg (n = 120). Phuang trinh tuang quan va he sd xae dinh ddgc t r i n h bay d H i n h 3. Dieu n a y cho tha'y dg bao m a t so' r a y ed t h e thgc hien dga t r e n cac yeu td' a n h hudng cd lien quan.
Hinh 2 va 3 cho tha'y ed khuynh hudng bien dgng gida m a t so' r a y thgc te vdi dg d o i n , k h i m a t sd' r a y dg bao t a n g t h i m a t sd r a y thuc te cung t a n g , va ngirdc lai eho ea dgt khao sat t h d 2 va ca vg. Tuy n h i e n , m g t so' rudng ed m a t sd ray thgc te ldn hoac it b a n so vdi dg bao. Dieu n a y cho tha'y m a t so' r a y thUc te edn chiu a n h hudng bdi cac yeu td khac m a t a ehUa kiem soat dugc.
BN» d ^ 9 » 4 M t M t4y< eSLK U W^flWt-to I ^ ^ ^ 9 j n Shm 4 ^ ^ » M« ie t dV tiifK tc M^ mA «^ (% ttf A»jn
\ \*
Tir^
;U«lS!ii.-t - , iiwrrT.itift*',n„.,. I 4,itiC:.Aj::iJi»it^x..,^>.v..-,,.,-J.«.i;^^^
i; tf r .-J :> I • tf Kt v> r'.i St
Hinh 2. Bien ddng gida mat sd riy thuc te va du doan dut khao sat thU 2
• HQI NGHI KHOA HQC CONG NGHE TOAN QLOC VE BVTV LAN T H C 3 '>
Aai no ray d J b a o 1600 r
y = 1.0333X - 0.0452 1400 t J
R = 0.6665 1200 j , ,
r- = 0,8l'**.
1000 t
r.1gt s 6 ray t h i / c te 800 1
y = 0.9937X t 2 3126 R ' = 0.404
400 600
M ^ t so ray t h u c te 200 300
Mat so rav tt\M te
Hinh 3. Tuong quan gida mit sd ray du bao va thuc te dot 2 va ca vu
3.4. Mo hinh bien dgng khong gian eda mat sd rdy ndu
Ket qua dU bao m a t sd r a y n a u duge thgc h i e n tai eac diem k h i o sat va danh gia cho t o a n vung can xae dinh md h i n h bien dgng va tuang quan khdng gian cua mat sd r a y nau. Vdi 120 diem khao sat, dng dgng ky t h u a t thd'ng ke dia ly va ngi suy khdng gian vdi phuang p h a p krigging, sg p h a n bd m a t sd ray nau duge danh gia eho t o i n khu vUc khao sat.
Dua theo Bang 3 eho tha'y md h i n h bien dgng khdng gian cua m a t sd ray nau dg bao va thgc te cua dgt khao sat t h d 2 va ca vg. Ket qua eho thay md hinh bien dgng khdng gian cho dgt 2 va ea vg cd he sd xac dinh (R') k h a eao. Dieu n i y cho tha'y mat so' r a y nau ed quan he va bien dgng theo khdng gian vdi khoang each bien ddng du doan trong khoang td 3,0 den 3,7km va bien dgng thgc te td 1,5 den 3,3km.
B^ng 3. Mo hinh bie'n dong khong gian cua mat so' ray thi/c te' va dii doan flcft 2 va c^ vu
Mat dg ra Dot 2
Ca Vu
V nau (con/m^) D I ; doan Thuc te Dl/ doan Thuc te
Mo hinh Exponential Exponential Gausian Gausian
c.
13900 43800 1970 9870
c.+c
70800 96400 18840 34330
R^
0,814 0,438 0,940 0,740
c/c+c„
0,804 0,546 0,895 0,712
A „ ( m ) 1.257 1.129 1.747 889
A ( m ) 3.771 3.387 3.025 1.539 C„ : PhUdng sai so ton dpng giOa cac diem khao sat.
C+Co : Ngudng tham gia bien dgng.
A, : Khoang each tham gia bien dpng.
A : Khoing each Idn nhat eon tham gia bien dpng.
R^ : H$ sd bien dpng.
C/C+Co • Phan trSm gia tri bie'n dpng
Ke't qua ngi suy cho tha'y m a t do r a y nau duge dU doan cua dgt 2 va ca vg dUa tren cae yeu td a n h hudng tuang ddi phu hgp vdi sU p h a n bd' eua m a t do r i y nau thgc te (R^thuc te=0,438 va RMg doan=0,814 eho dgt 2 va R'thge te=0,740 va RMg doan=0,940 cho ca vg) vdi md h i n h bie'n dgng cho dgt 2 la Exponential va cho c i vg la Gausian. Tuy n h i e n , k e t qua dg doan m a t sd r a y nau tha'p b a n so vdi m a t sd ray thuc te' do m a t sd r a y n a u thuc te chiu a n h hudng nhieu yeu td de bgc phat.
•:• HQI NGHI KHOA HQC CONG NGHE TO.\N QLOC VE BVTV LAN THlf 3 •:•
Ben canh cac yeu to khi hau thdi tiet, ky t h u a t canh tac, con co cac yeu to anh hxiang ma chu'a kiem soat dugc n h u a n h hifong ciia gio, gio'ng lua, ky thuat cham soc, v.v. Ket qua noi suy p h a n bo' m a t do r a y nau dii doan va noi suy khong gian m a t do r a y nau thiic te' cua dgt 2 va ca vu dira t r e n sii tufong quan cua cac yeu to a n h hudng den m a t do ray nau difcfc t r i n h bay cr H i n h 4 va 5.
Ben canh do, do lech chuan cua k e t qua d\l doan cung cho t h a y of cac vi tri gan vdi dia diem khao sat thi do lech chuan t h a p hon so vdi nhiJng diem a xa. Dieu n a y cho t h a y do tin cay ciia k e t qua du" doan ciing se phu thuoc n h i e u vao khoang each cua cac diem khao sat. Vi tri cua cac diem k h a o s a t can bo t r i d diem vdi cac khoang each bao dam k e t qua dii bao co do t i n cay cao va do lech c h u a n thap nhat Trong nghien cufu nay, khoang each bo' t r i cac diem k h a o s a t to't n h a t khdng vufgt qua Skm (gia tri A d mo hinh du doan cho ea vu).
Predicted Bio*sn hopper densrtyni?
^ 1 0 0 . - 2 0 0 • 400.600 ^ 600v«aO I 0 . 100 ^ K 0 . 4 0 ( >
Actirat Brown hopper densrtym2
^ >00 100 • 400 . 600 Q 600 . too i . 1 OO ^ 700 . 400
Hinh 4. Bien dpng khong gian mit dp ray nau thi/c te va dd doan, va 66 lech chuan dat 2
Hinh 5. Bien dpng khong gian mSt dp ray nau thuc te va diJ doan va dp Ipch chuan vu Dong Xuan
HQI NGHI KHOA HQC CONG N G H t T0.4N QUOC VE BVTV LAN THlJ 3 <'
290
4. Ke't l u a n va de nghi
Sir hien dien va mat so ray nau tren ruong liia eo moi quan he giijfa cac dieu kien khi hau, ky thuat canh tac.Tuy nhien, tuy vao tirng giai doan sinh trudng va phat trien cua lua cung nhif thdi vu canh tac ma cae yeu td va mijfc do a n h hudng se khac nhau.
Phiiong t r i n h hoi quy tiTomg quan ed y nghia giufa m a t so' ray vdi eac yeu to' a n h hi/dng d mot so' giai doan sinh tru'dng va thdi vu canh tac cd t h e dugc sd dung de dg doan xu the bien dong cua r a y nau t r e n ruong lua. Tuy n h i e n , do tin cay eua viec dg bao se tuy thuoc vao sg a n h hiidng cua cac yeu to' cd lien quan vdi sg hien dien ciia r a y nau.
Ket qua dg bao m a t so' r a y trong thdi gian n g a n hoac dai h a n dugc thgc hien khi cd dugc cac t h o n g so' dg bao ve cac yeu to' a n h hudng cd lien quan d thdi gian dg bao n h u eac dieu kien t h d i tiet, khi hau, t i n h h i n h va giai doan sinh trUdng, ky thuat canh tae, v.v.
Be dat dugc k e t qua dg bao vdi do tin cay cao can t h i e t lap cac mo h i n h dg bao cho tirng giai doan sinh trirdng, thdi vu canh tac vdi cac gidng lua k h a c nhau, cung nhiT nghien cufu bo sung cac yeu to' k h a c a n h hirdng den sg h i e n dien va phan bd' cua r a y nau n h u hiTdng va td'c do gid, sg h i e n dien cua cd dai, loai va lugng phan bdn silr dung, thdi diem bdn p h a n , v.v. De dat dugc yeu cau t r e n can cd nhieu diem khao sat vdi khoang each khao sat tiTOng ddi ddng n h a t nhSm giam bdt cac sai sd trong qua t r i n h ngi suy, gia t a n g do chinh xac eua k e t qua dg bao.
Phuong p h a p dng dgng ky t h u a t GIS va ngi suy khdng gian cd the dugc ap dgng trong eac nghien cufu d a n h gia hien t r a n g t i n h h i n h gay h a i va dg doan xu the a n h hudng cua cac ddi tugng k h a c theo k h d n g gian va thdi gian phuc vu cho viec dg tinh dg bao trong chuyen n g a n h bao ve thgc vat cung nhU cac chuyen n g a n h khac.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
Aronoff. S. 1989. Geographic Information System, iVlanagement perspective, Ottawa, Canada. • . -
- Burrought, P.A,.1986. Principles of Geographic Information System for land Resources Assessment Clarendor P r e s s Oxford.
- Le Thi Sen. 1999. Bai giang cdn t r u n g ndng nghiep. P h a n sau hai t r e n eac cay t r o n g chinh d Dong b a n g sdng Cdu Long. Khoa Ndng nghiep, TrUdng Dai hoc Can Tho.
- N g u y i n Van Huynh. 2006. NhUng v a n de can biet ve quan ly r a y nau hai lua.
Website:http://sokhcn.baria-vungtau.gov.vnykimlong/news_detai.asp
- P h a m Van Kim. 2000. Cac nguyen ly ve b e n h h a i cay trdng. Bg mdn Bao ve thgc vat, Khoa Ndng nghiep, TrUdng Dai hoe Can Thd.
- Vd Quang Minh. 1999. Bai giang He t h d n g t h d n g tin dia ly GIS. Bd mdn Khoa hoc dat va Quan ly d a t dai, Khoa Ndng nghiep, TrUdng Dai hoe Can Tho.
i4
m
•:• HOI NGHJ KWO.K HQC CONG NGH^ TO.AN QLOC VE BVTV LAN THll^ 3 ^ X'^-^rrT^.