KHOA H O C - C d N G NGHE
Giai phap do va di (park and ride) cfio giao thong do thj 6 TP. Ho Chl Minh
' TS. CHU T l i N D O N G - TrUdng Dai hoc Giao thdng van tdi
TOM T A T : Gi^i phap do va di (park and ride) la mgt trong nhung giai phap duac su dung rpng rai tren the gioi nham g i l m thieu un tac va khi thai 6 cac do th[ Ion Bai bao danh gia nhCrng yeu to Inh hudng den viec tham gia vao giai phap do va dl a TP. Ho Chi Minh thong qua mo hinh thd bac probit, Ket q u i cho thay, nhung nguoi c6 dg tuoi duoi 35, eg thu nhgp ca nhan thap, nhCrng nguoi hay sd dyng xe buyt se tich cyc tham gia vag giai phap Tuy nhien, mgt so yeu to nhu thoi gian di bg den Piem dung xe buyt Ion, gia ve xe buyt cao, thai gian cho xe buyt Ion, tren xe c6 tgi pham (mPc tui, trgm cap) se lam gi^m su mong muon tham gia vao giai phap do va di Ngoai ra, ty le tien thuPng va so tien ph^i tra hang thang de tham gia vao gi^i phap do va Pi cung la nhan tg quan trpng Snh hudng den lua chgn cua nguoi dan cho gi^i phap do va di Qua dP, mgt sg giai phap da duoc de xuat de khuyen khich nguoi dan tham gia ti'ch cue hon vao giai phap dc va Pi,
TCT KHOA: Dg va di. On tac giao thong, khi thSi, phuang tien giao thong ca nhan, phuong tien giao thong cong cpng.
ABSTRACT: Park and ride is one of a solution that IS widely used over the world to reduce traffic congestion and emission in big cities This paper determines factors that affect onparticipation of park and ride in Ho Chi Minh city by using ordered probit model The result shows that the pegple under 35 years old, people with low income and people frequently use bus have high willingness to join park and ride policy. On the other hand, some factors like long walking time to bus-stgp, high price gf bus ticket, long waiting time of bus, criminal on bus might reduce expectation to use park and nde polic. Based pn the result, some measures have been propgsed tg encourage the citizens tg highly participate in the park and ride policy.
KEYWORDS: Park and ride, traffic congestion, emission, private transportation mode, public transportation mode.
I.DATVAND^
CIc dd thi Idn d Viet Nam hien nay dang phli doi mat vdi rat nhieu van de nghiem trong nhU UTGT, TNGT
va o nhiem mPi truPng do elc phuong tien giao thdng g l y ra. Mot trong nhdng nguyen nhan chinh cOa tinh trang nay la do eo sd ha tang giao thong co han trong khi luong phuong tien d i e biet la phuong tien giao thPng c l nhan (PTGTCN) tang nhanh trong nhdng nam g i n day.
Oieu nay ddi hPi eae cap chinh quyen, cic n h l quy hoach giao thPng eung nhU eae nha nghien cdu ve giao thPng phai CO elc g i l i p h i p nham g i l i quyet dUOc nhdng van de nay.
Trong nhdng giai phap de g i l i quyet eae van de cua giao thong dP thj noi tren, do va di dUOc biet den nhU la mpt giai phap phu hpp. Gili phap do va di cP lieh sd llu ddi tren the gidi. Nd cP nguon gdc tU My trong nhdng nam 1930 va dupe thue hien P VUong qudc Anh trong nhdng nam 1960. Thdi gian gan day, do va di da va dang trp nen phd bien P eae nuPe chau Au [1] cung nhucic nUPc chlu A [2]. Gili phap n l y da dupe kiem chdng ring nP cP kha nang lam giam un t i e [3,4] cung nhu lam gilm lupng khi t h l i g l y P nhiem moi trUdng [1,5]. Chinh vi vay, viee nghien cufu dng dung g i l i phap do v l dl cho ele 36 thj Idn dViet Nam cd the giiip giai quyet dupe phan nao nhUng van de eua giao thPng do thi hien nay.
TR Ho Chl Minh la mpt trong nhdng trung t i m kinh te chinh tri IPn nhat cua ea nuPe. Cung giong nhu cac do thi Idn khac, sU bung no cda cae phuong tien giao thPng g l y ap lUc rl't IPn len eO sd ha tang giao thpng.Tinh den nam 2017, TR Hd Chi Minh ep khoang 7,6 trieu xe mIy va 700.000 0 tp, Moi ngly,TR Hd Chi Minh eP 1.000 phuong tien dang ky mdi, trong khi duPng giao thpng rat kho md rong [6]. Do dP, can co nhufng g i l i p h i p lau dai nhlm l l m giam UTGT va P nhiem mpi truPng do elc phUOng tien giao thong PTR Ho Chi Minh.Td nhUng kinh nghiem va thue tien tren the gidi, g i l l phap do va di da dUOe lUa chon nhSm khuyen khieh ngudi dan TR Ho Chi Minh sd dung chuyen dich tU viec spdung PTGTCN sang sPdung phuong tien giao thdng cong epng (PTGTCC).
Trong bai bio, dua tren sd lieu k h i o sat tii ngUdi d i n d TP. Ho Chi Minh, cac nhan to anh hudng den viec sCr dung giai phap do va di dupe nghien eUu, phan tich, Thpng qua do, mpt so g i l i phap da dupe de x u l t de khuyen khich ngUPl dan tham gia tieh cue hon vao g i l i p h i p do va di, gpp phan lam g i l m un t3e va k h i t h l i PTR Ho Chi Minh.
98
KHOAHOC-C6NGNGH6 2.KHAlNI$MViD6vADI
0 6 va di la giai phap trong dd ngudi tham gia giao thong se cung elc PTGTCN de di ehuyen tii nha den cac diem do xe d g i n cac diem ddng cua PTGTCC (nha ga tau dien ngam hay duPng sat, ben xe buyt) d ben ngoli trung t i m t h i n h pho va sau dd di vao trung tam thanh pho b i n g PTGTCC (Hinh 2.1). Vi the, mat do PTGTCN P trung t i m thanh pho duoc giam bdt va UTGT ed the giam. Hien nay, TR Ho Chi Minh chua cd mpt diem do xe du rpng gan cae vj tri diem ddng eua PTGTCC nen g i l i phap dupe de xuat la ket hpp vpi elc b l i do xe cua trung tam thuong mai (TTTM) de dd xe va t h i n h phd se bo tri ele tuyen xe buyt ket noi vdi elc TTTM nay. De nang cao traeh nhiem eua ngudi dan khi gdi xe PTTTM, hp phai tra mpt khoan tien nhat djnh moi thang. Sd tien nay se dugc khau t r d khi hp mua sam d TTTM, Ngoli ra, de khuyen khich ngudi d i n sd dung giai phap do va di, moi luot ngUdi d i n di xe buyt, hp se dupe tieh diem thudng (gpi la transportation eco point). Sddung xe buyt eang nhieu thi sd luong diem tich luy se elng Idn. Sd diem nay eung se duoc quy ddi thanh tien nhUng chi dupe khau trd khi ngudi d i n mua hang trong elc TTTM ma ho gdi xe de sCf dung g i l i phap do va di.
So 10/2018
Trung tam TP Di bSng PTGTCC
Hinh 2.1: Mo ti giiiphip do va di
S . T H U T H A P S d u e U
Sd lieu dung trong nghien edu nay dupe thu thap PTR Ho Chi Minh b i n g phuong phap bing eau hoi. Bang cau hPi nly duoe thue hien bdi CPng ty Maeromill - mpt trong nhUng ePng ty chuyen ve khio sat d Nhat Bin. Bing cau hPi dupe gCfi den ngUPi dan PTR Ho Chi Minh trong thing 12/2013. Tong so ngUPi da t r i ldi bing cau hPi la 1020 ngUPi. Cae thPng tin dUpc hdi bao gom ele nhPm sau:
- ( l ) N h P m t h P n g t i n v e n h i n khau hpe nhudo tuoi, gidi tinh, trinh dp hpe van...
- (2) NhPm thPng tin ve phUOng tien di lai hang ngay, thdi gian di ehuyen mdi ngay, chi phixang xe hang t h i n g . . .
- (3) NhPm thPng tin lien quan den g i l i p h i p do v l di. Ngudi tham gia t r i Idi nhan dupe eau hoi nhu sau: Ban eP sis dung giai p h i p do va di khPng neu (cau tra IPi t d 1-5 theo thang likert)?
- Sd tien p h l i t r i cho cae TTTM la x ddng (x = 100,
200 hoae 300 ngan dong).
-Thdi gian di chuyen t d nha den bai do xe la y phut ( y ^ 5,10 hole 15 phut).
Cau t r i ldi theo thang likert: 1 (chac chan khong sd dung), 2 (khdng sd dung), 3 (khong ro), 4 (sd dung) va 5 (chic chan sd dung). Neu ngUdI tra Idi chpn 4 hole 5, ho se t r i ldi them c l u hdi "Ban se sCr dung vdi tan suat bao nhieu lan/tuan". Cau tra Idi tUOl - 7 (lan/tuan).
Qmtinb mil s* offM iroBg ell diaii
• 29
Hinh 3.1: Thdng ke ve ket qui mgt so thdng tin khia sit Mpt sd thpng tin ve ket qua khio sat dUoc the hien tren Hinh 3.1. Ket qua eho thl'y ty le nam nd trong mau khao sat ia tuong ddi can bang (chi chenh 0.4%). Nhdm tuoi trong mau khao sat hau het trong dp tuoi 25 - 34 (42.5%), theo sau la nhPm cP dp tuoi tren 35 (37.8%) v l cuoi cung la nhdm tuoi dUdi 25 (19.6%). NgUdi tham gia khio sat d hp gia dinh cP 3 ngUPi chiem ty le IPn (39.9%), tiep den la ho cP so thanh vien IPn hon 3 (29.3%). DUng thd hai la hp vdi hai thanh vien (24.8%) va hp doe than ehi eP 5.9%.
4. M d HiNHThOr B A C PROBIT
Trong bai bao, mo hinh thd bac probit (ordered probit) duoc I p dyng. Vdi mP hlnh nay, hai bien phy thupcy nhan eae gia tri theo thU bae lan lupt la 1,2,3,.. .,J.
MP hinh thU ble probit dugc phat trien tU mP hinh bien an / , dupe bieu dien b i n g phUOng trinh sau:
y* = I3x[ -(- f,
Trong dd:p- Vector cua nhUng thong sd chUa biet;
X ' - Vector cua cae bien giai thieh; £ - Phan sai sd. Bien phu thupe y nhan cac g i l trj lan lUpt la 1,2,3,.. .,J neu:
f 1 neu Pa < V' ^ Mi
^ 1 lne\ipi < y , ' < P2 Uneufi|_i < y , * < /ij VPi fx - Cac ngUdng chua biet ma ta can xac dinh.
Chung phai luon thda man dieu kien s a u : / / . - / < jU va.
C h u y r a n g , / ( ^ ^ - c o vafig= +oo. Xac suat may, =y la:
Pr0'.=7)-Pr(/i,_i<yi, < ^ , ) Gia sd dupe phan phdi theo ham phan phdi ehuan, xae xua't tren cP the tinh theo cPng thde sau:
Prtv.=7) = *CM, -Px,)- * C M , - I Trong dd: <P - Ham phan phoi chuan tieh luy. Logant cua ham k h i nang eho quan sit thd / la:
ln(L,) = ^ I ( y , = ; ) l n ( P r C j ' , = ; ) )
Gil thiet rang tat c l cae mau quan sit la dpe lap,
9' 4
KHOA H O C - C 6 N G NGHE
chung ta eP the tinh tong eua tat c l eae mau quan sat de eP h i m logarit kha nIng cua toan bp mau (N):
ln(L,)=^^ICy, :
: ; ) l n ( P r ( y , =;•)Cae thPng so ehua biet [fi, /.i) dugc Udc lupng bang phuang phap hop ly cue dai (maximum likelihood) vdi md-dun"probit"trong phan mem thong ke STATA.
5. U d c Ll/ONG CAC T H 6 N G S 6 VA T H A O LUAN KETQUAM6H)NH
Bli bao ap dung mo hinh thU ble probit de Udc lupng mdc dP mong mudn tham gia v i o giai phap do v l di. Hinh 5.1 thong ke sd lupng nguPi tra Idi c l u hPi theo thang likert :1 (chic chin khong sddung), 2 (khPng sU dung), 3 (khpng ro), 4 (sU dung) va 5 (chic chan sd dung>, Hinh 5.1 cho thay, gan mpt nda so nguPi duoc dieu tra (455 ngUdi, chiem 44.61%) t r i IPi se sd dung g i l i phap do va di. 177 ngUPi (chiem 17.35%) t r i IPi chic chan se sd dung giai phap nay, Ty le nay eho thay su kha quan eho thanh eong cCia gili phip.
166 H 1^^
B M B M w
Lira chon theo thang likert
Hlnh 5.1: Ket qui thdng ke ve lua chpn eiia ngudi dupe dieu tra Ket q u i Udc lupng cae thPng so cua mp hinh thU bae probit dupe trinh bay tren Bdng 5. ?. Chu y la mo hinh chi giU lai nhUng bien g i l i thieh cP y nghia d khoang tin cay 95% (95% confident interval) hay nhUng bien ed gia trj P <0.05. Trong bai b i o , he so MacFadden's pseudo Reduce dung de danh gia hieu q u i cua mP hinh. He so nly duoc tinh t o l n theo cPng thdc sau: R^MscFadden ~ ^ "
log(/-^^^^i)/log(/.^^i^). Trong do: L^^^^^ - Gil trj cUc dai cua ham kha nang cua mo hlnh vPi day du eae bien; i.^^,, - Gia tri ham kha nang cua mo hlnh khdng co bien g i l i thieh nao. Ve mat y nghia, he so MacFadden's pseudo R^tuong t u nhu he sd R^ trong md hinh tuyen tfnh, tUc la g i l tri cua nd eang gan 1 thi mp hinh elng tot, Nhu da trinh bay P Bdng 5.1, g i l tri cua he so MacFadden's pseudo R^
trong bai bao nay la 0.63. MIc du he so nay khong dupe eao nhu mong dpi, nhung vIn chUng tP mP hlnh thU bae probit 11 phu hpp va eae bien dpe lap dUa vao cP the g i l i thieh tdt cho bien phu thupe.
Co rat nhieu bien dupe dua vao mP hinh t h d bae probit de thd, tuy nhien cac bien khong cP y nghia ve mat thong ke (ehi so P > 0.05) bj loai bP khPi mo hinh.
Trong mP hinh cuoi eung, chi cP nhUng bien eP y nghia thong ke dugc giU lai nhu d l duoc the hien trong Bdng 5. y. Chu y rang, dau dUOng trong mP hinh cho thay ngudi tham gia t r i IPi ep xu hudng tham gia vao g i l i phap do v l di. NgUpe lai, dau am ehUng tP ho khong muon tham gia vao g i l i p h i p nly.
Lien quan den I n h huPng cda tudi den viee quyet dmh tham gia vao giai phapdo vadi, ket q u a d Sdng 5.?
cho tha'y, nhUng ngUdi cP dp tuoi tre (dudi 25 tudi) va nhPm tuoi trung nien (25 den dUdI 35 tuoi) ed xu hudng mong mudn tham gia vao giai phap do va di. Trong dp, neu quan s i t thPng sd t-value thi tha'y rang, nhPm tre tuoi cP dp tin eay eao hon so vdi nhdm trung nlen.
Do vly, ket qua cua mP hinh cung h o l n toan hpp ly vi hien nay, nhPm tudi tre (hoc sinh, sinh vien) sd dung xe buyt vdi ty le IPn. Ngoai ra, ket q u i cung cho thay nhdm ngUPi cd thu nhap dudi 20 trieu/nam cung ed xu hudng mong muon tham gia vao giai phap nay. Dieu nay eung phu hpp vdi ket luan P tren vi nhPm tuoi tr^
(hoc sinh, sinh vien) thUdng cP thu nhap thap tham chi khPng eP thu nhap. Ben eanh yeu td tuoi va thu nhap, mpt so yeu to quan trpng khae cung co I n h hUpng den viee tham gia vao giai p h i p do va di. Bdng 5. / eho thay ring, nhdng ngudi di lai hang ngay bang xe buyt, ep diem do xe buyt gan nha cd xu hUdng tich eUc tham gia vao g i l l p h l p d o v i d l .
Mpt yeu td quan trpng nda la ty le so tien "thudng"
cho nguPi tham gia eang IPn thi hp eang co mong muon duoe tham gia vao g i l l p h i p do va di.TUe la, khi tham gia v i o g i l i phap do va di, nguPi tham gia se dUpc tieh diem can ed vao sd lan di xe buyt. Neu so tien "thudng" eho mpt lan di xe buyt eang Idn thi elng di nhieu hp eang tich luy dupe nhieu tien thudng. DP la ly do tai sao ty le sd tien "thuPng"duac hoan t r i lai khi dixe buyt eang eao thi eang khuyen khieh ngUdi d i n tham gia tich cue v i o g i l i phapdo va di.
Ngoai eae bien cP I n h huPng tieh cUc den g i l i phap do va di, elc bien con lai (7-'16) deu co he so mang gia trj am, eP nghia rang nhUng bien nay eP anh huPng tieu CUc den viec tham gia giai p h i p do va di. Ket q u i d Bdng 5.2 eho tha'y, nhdng ngudi P trong hp gia dinh cP it hOn hai ngUPi (song dpe than hoac chi eo hai vo ehong) it CO mong muon sd dung g i l i phap do va di. Vdi nhdng ngudi sd hUu b i n g III va cd P tP thi ket q u i eung nhU vly. Ngoai ra, ed nhUng yeu td rat quan trpng I n h huPng den su tham gia cua ngudi dan vao g i l i phap do va di nhu thPi gian di den diem do xe buyt, gia ve xe buyt va chat lupng khi di bang xe buyt. Neu thdi gian di bd den diem dUng xe buyt Idn, g i l ve xe buyt eao, thdi gian ehp xe buyt Idn, tren xe ed tdi pham (moc tui, trpm elp) se lam giam sU mong muon tham gia vao g i l i p h i p do va di. Ben eanh dP, so tien p h l i dPng hang t h i n g v i o ele TTTM de tham gia vao giai phap do va di eang Idn thi eang it ngUdi muon tham gia vao g i l i phap.
100
KHOA H O C - C 6 N G N G H e
Bing 5.1. Kit qui udc luong cac thong so eiia mo hinh thubac probit
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I Nhom tuoi trJ (di/oi 25 luol) - b i l n giS (dummy)
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khi dl le buytt
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a Mhan viencong tj. - bien gi5 (dummy) 9 Vien chiJc nha nu6i: - bi^n giS (dummy)
10 C6 bJng va so huu Q lo - bien gia
, , J _ ^ h 6 i g , a n p h . i . i b o . . n d , e m d c
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So luong mau Log likelihood (r.ll) Log likelihood (model)
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m20 -1.64 04S -538162 0 63
6. K i l L U A N - KI^N NGH!
VPi su tang trudng PTGTCN nhu hien nay, eae do thi IPn eua Viet Nam nhU Ha Npi va TP. Ho Chi Minh rat can elc g i l i phap de kiem che viee sd dung PTGTCN. Gili phap do va di la mPt giai p h i p duoc sd dung rdng rai tren the gidi nham khuyen khich ngudi tham gia giao thdng tU bd PTGTCN va di vao trung t i m thanh phd bangPTGTCC. BaiblodanhgianhUngyeu toanhhuPng den viec tham gia vao g i l i phap do va di thdng qua mP hlnh thd ble probit. Ket qua eho thay nhUng ngudi eP do tudi dudi 35, cd thu nhap c l nhan thap (dUdi 20 trieu/
nam), nhUng ngudi hay sd dung xe buyt se tich eUc tham gia vao g i l i phap.Tuy nhien, mpt sd yeu to nhuthPi gian di bo den diem ddng xe buyt Idn, gia ve xe buyt eao, thdi gian chd xe buyt IPn, tren xe ep tpi pham (mPe tui, trPm cap) se lam giam sU mong mudn tham gia vao g i l i p h i p do va di. Ngoai ra, ty- le tien thudng va so tien p h l i tra
So 10/2018
hang t h i n g de tham gia vao g i l i phap do va di cung la n h i n to quan trpng I n h hudng den lUa chpn eua ngudi dan cho giai phap do va di.
TU ket qua eua b l i bao, mpt sd giai p h i p can dugc thue hien de khuyen khich nguPi dan tham gia tieh eUc hon v i o giai phap do va di. Thd nhat, can nIng cao chat lupng dich vu xe buyt, xay dUng diem ddng do phu hpp de g i l m thdi gian di bd cua ngUdI tham gia, xay dung ehinh sach g i l ve thich hpp vdi dai bp phIn eU dan thanh phd.ThU hai, can giam sd tien phai ddng hang t h i n g eho cic TTTM va tang ty le tien thuPng eho moi lUpt sd dung djch vu xe buyt. Mac du so tien phai ddng eho cle TTTM, ngudi dung van eP the sd dung nP de mua sIm trong elc trung t i m nay, nhung neu q u i IPn se lam g i l m mong muon tham gia eua ngUPi dan. Thd ba, ve lau dai thanh pho can xay dUng cic diem ddn, tra khach va elc bai do xe IPn p ele dupng vanh dai cua thanh phd. Cae b l i do xe nay cP the dugc lien ket vdi eae cda hang, TTTM va diem thudng cua ngudi tham gia g i l i phap do va dl cP the sCf dung de mua sIm trong cae eda hang va TTTM nay •
Tai lieu tham khio
[1]. GiulianoMingardo (June 2013), Transport and environmental effects of rail-based Park and Ride: evidence from the Netherlands, Journal of Transport Geography, Vol.30,pp.7-16.
[2]. Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Kenji Doi, Masaharu Yagishita and Masako Kuw/ata (2004), Urban Transport Sustainability: Asian Trends, Problems and Policy Practices, European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, Vol. 4, Issue 1, pp 27-45.
[3]. Daniel Hess (2001), Effect of Free Parking on Commuter Mode Choice: Evidence from Travel Diary Data, Transportation Research Record, Vol. 1753.
[4]. Stuart Meek, Stephenlson, Marcus Enoch (2011), Evaluating alternative concepts of bus-based park and ride, Transport Policy, Vol. 18, Issue 2, pp.456-467.
[5]. Hongeheng Gan, Qing Wang (2013), Emissions Impacts of the Park-and-Rlde Strategy: A Case Study in Shanghai, China, Proeedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vol. 96, p p . n 19-1126.
[6], Bao Phip luat online, 7P.HdC/)/Min/7 hien noycd bao nhieu ngudi, bao nhieu xe eg?
Ngay nhan bai: 19/8/2018 Ngay chap nhan tfang: 4/9/2018 NgUdi phSn bi#n: TS. Bui Tuan Anh
TS.OangMinhTam
