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Giai toa siic ep tang ty gia
• THS. TRAN HONG QUANG
Viec gia USD on d m h nhu hien nay co tac dong rat tich cue tPi gia t n VND va gop phan gian tiep giai quyet bai toan lai suat hien nay. Theo nhan d m h ciia cac chuyen gia, kha nang giam cua USD se con tiep tuc trong 2 - 3 thang nua. Tuy nhien, trong dai han, v i n con qua s o m de khang dmh s u on d m h cua VND trong nhung thang t o i , boi con phu thupc vao cac yeu to chi so lam phat va ty gia VND.
Dien bien tich cue tren thj trirdng ngoai hoi
T
hi trudng ngoai hdi trong thdi gian qua da thu hiit kha nhigu sy chti y cua cac nha diiu tu vdi hien tugng lao ddc kha manh va bat ngd cua ty gia. Trong khi ty gia lien ngan hang van dugc Ngan hang Nha nude (NHNN) cd djnh d mtrc 18.544 VND/USD thi ty gia mua vao/ban ra nigm yet tai cac ncan hiins lai cd dau higu hanhiet. thap hon gia tran (19.100 VND/USD) tdi vai tram digm phan tram. Ty gia ngoai thj trudng tu do ciing ha nhiet nhanh chdng vii lao ddc rat manh. d mirc gan nhu ngang nhau vdi gia niem ygt tai ngan hang. Day cd thg coi la mot
"chuygn la" trgn thi trudng ngoai hdi Viet Nam bdi da lau lam rdi ngudi dan vii gidi dau co ngoai te mdi dugc chiing kign sy chenh lech vdi bign do nhd nhu vay giira gia
USD trong he thdng ngan hang vdi thj tnrdng chg den. Viec gia USD dn dinh nhu hien nay cd tac ddng rat tich cue tdi giii tri VND vii gdp phan gian tiep giai quygt bai toan lai suat hien nay. Khi mil ky vong pha gia VND khdng cdn. ngudi dan se cd nigm tin hon vdi ddng ndi te.
khdng cdn tich trir ngoai te va chuyen ngudn vdn nhiin rdi cua minh vao he thdng ngan hang giiip ngudn vdn huy ddng cQa cac ngan hang ddi dao hon. nhan td quan trong keo mat bang lai suat huy dong va cho vay xudng thap hon ntra.
Theo mdt sd chuyen gia. sy sut giam cua ddng USD trong thdi gian qua la do su digu chinh chinh sach ciia NHNN trong quan he giira lai suat vii tl gia. Su len gia cua tien ddng so vdi USD dang phan anh ket qua tich cyc dong thai digu hiinh ciia NHNN trong vice chuyen djch dd la tin dung sang dd la thuang mai. Viec dieu chinh ty gia tang 3,4% tir 17.961 ddng len 18.544 ddng viio thang 2/2010 ciia NHNN da dua mtrc ty gia chinh thtrc tdi gan hon mirc can bang cung - cau USD cua thi trudng, tir dd dii liim cho ky vong tiep tuc pha gia VND giam di.
Ngoiii ra. do chenh lech lai suat cho vay gitra USD vii VND khien ty gia giam manh, tham chi cd luc, ty gia ngoai thi trudng ty do xudng thap hon thi trudng chinh thirc. Cu thg.
Iai suat binh quan cho vay VND khoang 15%/nam, trong khi vay USD la 7% - 8%/nam. tao ra chgnh lech lai suat tir 7%-8%. Ngu ty gia bien ddng them khdng qua 5%
trong nam nay. vay USD se lai tir 2%-3%. Dieu niiy khien DN khdng can USD nhung van vay USD dc ban ra lay VND mua viit tu. nguyen lieu phuc vu hoat ddng san xuat kinh doanh.
Hien tai. ngudn cung ngoai tc tir cac ngiin hiing thuang nuii da tang len. diip ung nhu cau USD lam thtri
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IM cumm
cua cac DN. Trong khi dd. cau USD ciing khdng that sy cao bdi le cac DN nhap khau trong 3 thiing diiu nam nay thay vi mua USD da quay sang vay USD dg diinh VND cho boat ddng san xuat kinh doanh vdi ly do Iai suat vay USD hap dan. Va khi ngudn ngoai te nay dugc cac DN chuygn sang tign ddng lay vdn san xuat kinh doanh thi ngoai te se dugc cac ngan hiing mua lai va se trd thiinh ngudn ngoai te kinh doanh ciia chinh cac ngan hiing. Dieu nay da liim cho ngudn cung USD trgn thj tnrdng tang Ign dang ke. O phia ngugc lai. cac DN xuat khau Iai hiiu nhu ludn trong trang thai san sang ban USD cho ngiin hang do ky vpng giim giir chd ty gia Ign khdng cdn.
Ngudn cung lien tuc dugc cai thien trong khi cau khdng that su manh me da khien gia USD dang chiu sire ep giam gia kha ldn. Gia USD ngoai thj trudng ty do cting khdng nam ngoiii xu hudng tren.
Con do nhirng ban khoan
USD giam gia ben canh niem vui ciing dang cd khdng it ndi lo. Vg phia DN. do hien nay lai suat cho vay VND va USD cd mirc chenh Igch qua ldn, do dd khdng it DN dii di vay vdn ngoai te rdi chuyen hda thanh tign ddng dg hudng chgnh Igch hoac budn ban ngoai te ldng
\dng dg kigm Icii. Thyc te cho thay, du ng bang ngoai te da tang 14,07%
so vdi thing 12-2009 (theo Bd K I hoach vii Dau tu) phan anh viec nhigu DN da tang cudng di vay ngoai te thay vi ndi te. Nhu cau vay ngoai te van tigp tuc ndng, khign tang trudng tin dung ngoai te dang tiem can mdc 20%.
Cac chuyen gia nhan dinh viec vay vdn USD dang tigm an kha nhieu nii ro, bdi vay ngoai te ludn di kem vdi riii ro ty gia, day la van dg dang lo ngai nhat vi khdng the tinh dugc. Lan bign ddng giii USD nhirng ngay cudi thang Ba, dau thang Tu lii mdt vi du. Trong khi ty gia lien ngan hiing van d muc
18.544 ddng/USD thi gia USD tren thj trudng lign tuc tang va nhanh chdng vugt qua mdc 19.300 ddng/USD. Khdng it DN da phai an qua dang trong thdi diem nay. Hien nay, nhin ty gia USD/VND cd ve dn djnh nhung bign ddng ciia ty gia rat khd ludng, thudng tang bat ngd va vi vay se la ndi "am anh" ddi vdi cac DN, dac biet la nhung DN cd ndi lyc chua manh, khd tim cac ngudn ngoai te khac khi dgn ban tra ng.
Hien tai khi gia USD giam xudng, nhigu ngudi dan da dua nhau di mua, nhieu chuyen gia kinh tg cho rang ddi vdi cac nha dau tu, "gam"
ngoai te vao thdi diem nay chua han la sy dau tu khdn ngoan, bdi xet ve kha nang sinh ldi, dau tu viio USD thdi digm niiy khdng thu dugc ket qua nhu ky vgng. Viec "gam" USD hien nay chi danh cho nhung ngudi cd tien nhiin rdi. khdng ua mao higm. Ngudi cd thdi quen giir tai san dudi dang ngoai te can can nhac
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vi mua vao la hi Id. Gia USD giam, tai san cQa ngudi nam giii USD vi thg se bj teo tdp dan. Viec tin dung tang trudng USD tang manh nhu thdi gian qua, dac biet neu tiep tuc duy tri trong thdi gian tdi thi la tin hieu tich cyc cho thay ddng USD se khdng len gia nhieu nira.
Mdt ndi lo khac la do gia USD giam khign nha xuat khau dang hi that thu. Mdt tan gao cd gia 400 USD, khi gia mua 1 USD giam 80 ddng, nha xuat khau bj mat 32.000 ddng. Vdi 100.000 tan gao, nha xuat khau bi mat 3,2 ti ddng. Doanh thu xuat khau cua cii nude trong thang 3/2010 la 5,15 ti USD, khi 1 USD giam 80 ddng, nha xuat khau bj mat 412 ti ddng. Day la dieu dang suy nghi bdi vi chu tnrang tang ti gia tir 18.500 ddng/USD Ign 19.100 ddng/USD trong diu nam 2010 la de khuygn khich xuat khau.
Vi thg, ty gia giam ciing dat ra cho NHNN mdt nhiem vu mdi, dd lii phai tham gia thj trudng dg dua ty gia trd ve miic hgp ly cho nhii xuat khau. Ty gia giam khdng khuyen khich dugc xuat khau, trong khi lai cang "md cua" cho nhap khau, giiy ap lyc ldn Ign can can thuang mai.
Nhap sieu trong qui 1-2010 da dat miic 3,5 ti dd la My. bing 25% kim ngach xuit khiu. Trong thdi gian tdi, nlu miic nhap sieu tiep tuc tang cao, mtrc ciu cua USD se tang manh va gay ap lyc len VND. Khi dd, cd thg se dan dgn sy dieu chinh ciia ty gia, lam tang riii ro trong cac hoat ddng kinh doanh. tao ra nhiing chu ky kinh tl cd tinh bat dn cao.
Trong khi dd, digu dang lo ngai la khdng miy DN d Viet Nam su dung cac cdng cu phai sinh nhu hgp ddng ky han (forwards), hoan ddi (swaps), hay quygn chpn (options) de bao higm nii ro ty gia.
Theo nhan djnh cua cac chuygn gia. kha nang giam cua USD se cdn tilp tuc trong 2 - 3 thang nira. Tuy
nhign, do ngudn cung ngoai te tu thang du can can thuong mai cua Viet Nam chua dugc cai thien nhigu, ty gia giam hien nay chi cd tinh chat ngan ban va khdng bgn virng. Trong dai han, van cdn qua sdm dg khang djnh sy dn dinh cua VND trong nhung thang tdi, bdi cdn phu thudc vao cac yeu td chi sd lam phat va ti gia VND. Nhirng phan tich cho thay, kinh te VN trong quy II va nam 2010 se duy tri dugc tdc dp tang tnrdng dn djnh.
Tuy vay, nhirng yeu kem nhu tham hut tai khoan vang lai... va chat lugng tang tnrdng cting chua thg cai thien trong mot sdm. mot chieu.
Bao cao thudng nign kinh tg Viet Nam nam 2010 ciia Trung tam Nghign cuu Kinh tg vii Chinh sach (VEPR - DHQG Ha Ndi) nhan djnh, nam 2010 VND cd kha nang mat gia khoang 5,5% so vdi USD.
Trudc du bao niiy, cau hdi dat ra lii Viet Nam ngn lya chon chinh sach ty gia nhu the niio de kigm soat dugc lam phat, dn dinh ngn kinh tg vii can ciin thuang mai?
Tra ldi cho cau hdi tren. TS Nguygn Due Thiinh - Giam ddc VEPR cho bigt: Theo nghign ctai cua VEPR, Chinh phu cd the ciin nhic djch chuygn sang ca che ty gia tha ndi cd quiin ly trong thdi gian tdi. Nhung dg chinh sach nay phat huy tac dyng, lam nang uy tin ciia VND. thi Viet Nam can phai chuiin bj them mot sd digu kign khac nhu:
Xay dyng mdt NHNN hoat ddng ddc lap cd nhiem vu chinh Iii kigm soat lam phat theo muc tigu va xay dyng thj trudng ngoai hdi hien dai sao cho cd nhieu san pham phai sinh lign quan den ngoai hdi vii hap din dugc nhilu thanh phan kinh tg tham gia. Trong qua trinh chuan bj dl chuyin bin sang ca chg ty gia tha nd'i cd quan ly. NHNN ciing cin cd nhirng bien phap nham giam bdt han chi ciia ca chg digu hanh ty gia
hien tai. Cdng khai thudng ky chinh sach ty gia, ap dung cac chinh sach lai suat de nang uy tin VND va ap dung mot sd bien phap thug quan d mirc hgp ly nham giam ap lyc giam gia VND. Luu y lii viec ndi long ty gia theo hudng linh boat nhu vay khdng ddng nhat vdi viec tha ndi hoan toan. Can thuc hien quan ly ty gia mdt each gian tigp thdng qua viec kigm soat lugng vdn gian tiep vao thj trudng Vigt Nam.
Cd thg ndi. nhirng bign ddng ty gia trong thdi gian nay tao ra rat nhigu thuan lgi cho ngn kinh tg thi mat khac, cung rat nhigu DN dang phai hiing chiu "tac dung phu". Ndi bign ddng ty gia, ke thi cudi nu, ngirdi dang khdc tham Iii vi thg.
Theo nhan djnh cua cac chuyen gia, kha nang giam cua USD se cdn tigp tuc uong 2-3 thang nira. Tuy nhign.
do ngudn cung ngoai te tir thang du can can thuang mai ciia Viet Nam chua dugc cai thien nhigu, ty gia giam hien nay chi cd tinh chat ngan ban va khdng bgn vting. Trong diii han. van cdn qua sdm de khang djnh sy dn dinh cua VND trong nhtrng thang tcVi, bdi cdn phu thudc vao cac ygu td chi sd lam phat vii ty gia VND. Trong bdi ciinh lam phat gia tang, tham hut ciin can thuang mai ldn va ddng vdn dau tu nude ngoiii viio nhieu, viec lya chon mdt ca che digu hiinh ty gia phti hgp dg dat dugc muc tigu kiem chg lam phat va dn djnh thj truong tign tg Iii khdng don gian vdi tinh trang USD hda trong ngn kinh tg van cdn cao nhu hien nay. Viec dieu hanh ty gia dat ra cho Viet Nam nhung thach thirc va lira chpn khdng dg. Uu tien va hy sinh cho muc dich niio se cdn phu thudc rat ldn viio nhirng bign dpng kinh te trong nhirng thang cdn lai ciia nam nay. Tuy nhien, viec duy tri mdt chinh sach ty gia minh bach vii dn dinh se giiip cho ciic nhii dau tu nude ngoai ygn tiim rdt vdn viio Viet Nam.
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