TAPCHiCdNGTHiriTNG
DANH GIA TINH BEN VtfNG
CUA NGAN SACH NHA NlJOfC Tl/ GOC DO NGUON DONG VIEN VAO NGAN SACH
• PHAM THI TUE - D 6 TH! THANH HUYEN
TOM TAT:
Ngdn sach nha nUde (NSNN) la mdt quy tai chinh dac biet cd vai tiro quan trgng dd'i vdi cdc boat ddng phat triin kinh td' - xd hdi, dam bao an ninh qudc phdng va ngoai giao. Cac boat ddng thu, chi ngdn sach la cdng cu quan trpng Nha nUdc sd dung d l tbdc hien vai trd qudn ly, dilu til^t vT md dd'i vdi todn bd nen kinh te. NSNN bin vdng la mdt trong nhdng chi tieu quan trpng dam bao bin vdng va an toan tdi chinb qud'c gia. Tinh bin vdng eda NSNN phu thudc vao nhilu yd'u td', trong dd khdng the khdng xet de^n gdc dp bin vdng cua cac ngudn thu vao NSNN. Bai vid't di vao phan tich thdc trang NSNN Vidt Nam vd ep ca'u tbu NSNN thdi ki 2006-2017 d l chi ra nhdng vd'n de anh hudng dd'n viec duy tri, phdt trien ben vdng ngudn ddng vien vao NSNN va d l xua't mdt sd khuyd'n nghi chinb sach dd'i vdi boat ddng thu NSNN d l dam bao bin vdng NSNN trong thdi gian tdi.
Tiif khoa: Tinh bin vdng cua NSNN, ngudn ddng vidn vao NSNN, thu NSNN.
1. Thrfc trang ngSn sach nha nuTdc d Vidt Nam
Theo Luat Ngdn sdch Nbd nddc dddc Qud'c hdi ban hanh nam 2015 vd chinh tbdc ed hieu Idc vao nam 2017 thi ngan sach nhd nUde (NSNN) Id toan bd cdc khoan thu, cbi cua Nha nude dUde dd todn va thdc bien trong mdt khoang thdi gian nhd't dinb do cd quan nha nUdc cd tham quyln quye't dinh de bao dam thUc hien cae chdc nang, nhidm vu cua Nha nddc. V l ed ban, boat ddng thu cbi NSNN gan vdi quyln Idc kinh td' - xa hoi cua Nba nddc trong mdi thdi kl, the hien cac quan he kinh te', cae quan he ldi ich trong dd ldi ich qud'c gia, ldi ich cdng ddng dUdc dat len dau tien va tri pbd'i cac loi ich khde.
Trong nIn kinh t l thi trudng dinh hudng xa hdi ebu nghia d Viet Nam thi vai trd eua NSNN la rd't quan trong, khdng chi la quy tai cbinb dl duy tri bp may quan ly nbd nUdc, la cdng cu de Nhd nUdc khde phuc nhdng han chd' cua cd chd' thi trddng
(phdn pbd'i bang hda cdng cdng...) ma cdn la ngudn luc tai ehinh quan trpng cho ddu tu phdt triin. Cdc hoat ddng thu, chi NSNN dang cd xu hddng ngay cang md rdng cung vdi qua trinb phat triin kinh td' xd hdi nddc ta. Vl thu ngdn sach, giai doan 2011- 2015 quy md thu NSNN dat 5.507,2 nghln ty ddng, ga'p hdn 2 Ian so vdi giai doan 2006-2010, Ndm 2016-2017, tbu ngdn sach tid'p bic tang trUdng kha, tdng thu Udc dat 2,696 nghin ty ddng, gan xa'p xi bang thu ngdn sdch eua ea giai doan 2006-2010 (2.736 nghln ty ddng), Ve chi ngan sdch, quy md eac khoan chi td NSNN cung tdng manh, giai doan 2011-2015 dat 6.324,5 nghin ty ddng, ga'p bdn 2 Ian so vdi chi NSNN giai doan 2006-2010, ridng bai ndm 2016-2017 sd'chi ngan sdch da vUdt quy md cbi eua cd giai doan 2006-2010 (Bang 1). Qua dd cho tbd'y kha ndng buy ddng ngdn sdch va cbi tidu NSNN cua Cbinh pbu deu dang tiing len phu hdp vdi chieu hddng tdng trUdng kinh td' (cd sd thu NSNN) vd quy luat Wagner'. Tuy nhidn, td'e dd
34 So4-Thang3/2019
KINH IE
Bang 1. Thu chi va can ddi ngan sach nha nUSc giai doqn 2006-2017
(ngiiJn ty dong, %) Cac chi tigu
long thu can dfi NSNN Tong chi can dSi NSNN
2006 350.8 385.6
2007 431 469.6
2008 548.5 590.7
2009 629.1 715.2
2010 777.2 850 9
2011 962.9 1034 2
2012 1038.4 1170 9
2013 1084 1277 7
2014 1130.6 1339 5
2015 1291.3 1502 2
2016 1407.6 1574 4
2017 1288 7 1462.9 Can aa NSNN
Bgi chi NSNN Ty 16 (%) boi chi NSNN so GDP thuc hi&n
48.6 5.0
64.6 5.64
67 7 4.58
114 4 519
109 2 5.5
1120 44
173.8 5 36
236 8 66
249 4 6 33
263.1 6 28
248.7 5.52
263.1 6.43 Nguon- Tii 2006-2016 tdng hgp theo quyet todn ciia Bo Tdi chinh; 2017 tinh todn theo dU todn Qudc hgi.
tang trudng cua thu vd chi NSNN deu cd chieu hddng giam dan tiY mdc dinh diem 27,2% vd 25,8%
(nam 2008) xud'ng mdc 9% vd 4,8% (2016) cho tha'y cdc chu trddng dan huy ddng sdc ddn cho NSNN (danh ngudn Itfe do ebo ddu tu tUnhan, phdt trien san xua't kinh doanh ngoai khu vdc cdng) va tai cd cau chi tidu cdng cung phin nao cd kd't qua.
Mae du tdc dp tang trUdng thu va cbi NSNN ed giam xudng trong vai nam gan ddy nhdng NSNN vdn ludn rdi vao dnh trang tham hut (thu nho hdn chi) cho du tinh todn theo thdng Id qud'c te (IMF) hay tinh todn theo each eua Td'ng cue Tbd'ng ke^.
Thdm hut ngdn sdch eua Viet Nam td 2012 dd'n 2017 dao ddng d mdc 5,3 - 6,6% GDP, cao bdn mdc 4,4-5,6% GDP cua giai doan 2006-2011. Nam 2017, tham hut ngdn sdch d mdc 3,48% GDP^ - do bat dau khdng tinh cbi tra nd gd'e kbi can dd'i ngdn sach theo quy dinh cua Ludt Ngdn sdeb ed bidu Idc td nam 2017, tuy nbidn nd'u tinh theo each cu thi con sd tham but tiep die tang dd'n 6,43% GDP. Nhu vay, mdc dp tham but NSNN ndm 2017 dddc Bd Tdi chinh bdo cdo cho tha'y giam di la do cdch tinh toan, cdn tbue t l chi tidu vd ky luat tai kbda khdng dUdc cai thien, co nhieu nguy cd anh hUdng dd'n tinh ben vdng cua NSNN va gia tang nd cdng qud'c gia,
2. Danh gia ve tinh ben viJng cua NSNN thdng qua cac ngudn huy ddng vao ngdn sach
Tinh ben vdng eua NSNN dddc bilu bidn d ebd hoat dong Xhu, chi NSNN d Uong tinh trang dn dmh Idu dai, khdng ed tham hut Idn keo ddi dda de'n tinh trang nd cdng tang cao lam md't In dinb kinh td' vT md (Vd Van Hdp, 2013). Tinh b i n vdng cua NSNN dddc dam bao dda trdn eac nguyen tac: (i) Hoat ddng thu, chi NSNN tddng dd'i In dinb, quy
md va cd ca'u thu, cbi NSNN phai phu hdp vdi thu nhdp binh quan dau ngUdi vd U-inb dd phat trien kinh td' xa hdi; (ii) Tong sd thu td thud', phi, le phi phai Idn hdn tdng sd' chi tiiUdng xuyen va gdp phin tich luy ngay cang cao d l cbi dau td phdt triin;
trddng hdp cdn bdi cbi dii sd bdi cbi phai nhd hdn sd' ebi dau td phdt Uiln, tidn tdi can bang tbu, chi ngdn sdch, (iii) Tham hut ngdn sach dddc duy tri trong gidi han eho phep, khdng lam nd cdng tdng cao vd keo dai, gay nguy cd vd nd qud'c gia.
Khi xem xet NSNN Vidt Nam dddi gdc dp thu ngdn sach giai doan 2006-2017 cho tiia'y, NSNN dang ed nhdng da'u hieu thid'u ben vdng bdi: (i) Ty Id buy ddng vdo ngan sdch so vdi GDP dang tiep tuc suy giam; (ii) Cd ed'u cac ngudn buy ddng vao ngdn sach ed xu bddng khdng ben vdng, (iii) Ty Id flia't tbu cao; (iv) Tinh luy tid'n va cdng bang cua thud' yd'u.
+) Ve ty le tbu NSNN, trong giai doan 2011 - 2015, thu NSNN tbeo du todn so vdi GDP giam 4,6 diem % cdn 23,56% so vdi mdc 28,2% eua giai doan 2006 - 2010, nd'u tinh gdp eac khoan tiiu NSNN ngoai du toan thi ty Id nay cung giam 5,6 diem%, titdng dng td 36,9% GDP xudng 31,28%
GDP (Hlnb 1). Nguydn nhdn kbie'n ty trong thu NSNN/GDP cd xu hddng sut gidm la do Chinh^phu cd nhdng chinh sach Uu ddi vl thul nham hd ti-d doanh ngbidp va san xud'l - kinh doanh ti-ong nUdc sau thdi ki suy thoai (giam thue' thu nhdp doanh nghidp), ddng thdi hang rao thud' quan dddc cat giam theo cam ke't bdi nhap vd gid ddu thd thd' gidi giam sdu, cae khoan vidn hd khdng hodn lai bi cat giam manh. Theo Bdo cdo Triin vpng Kinh te the' gidi cua IMF (2015) cho thd'y, ty Id thu
Sd4-Thdng 3/2019 35
TAP CHJ CONG THlflfNG
NSNN/GDP cua Vidt Nam dang theo xu hddng giam, trong klii ty le nay lai dang dn dinb va di Idn d cdc qud'c gia Idng gieng trong khu vUc, nhd ASEAN-i-4 (Ma-lay-xia, In-dd-ne-xia, Phi-lip-pin va Thai Lan), CHDCND Lao va Cam-pu-chia, Vd'n de ddng lo ngai la ty Id ddng vidn vao NSNN cd xu hudng giam dan, trong khi dp lUe tdng chi tidu cdng ea ve dau tu va thddng xuydn van cao, cdc chi so an toan nd da gan sat cac gidi han an toan tbeo ludt dinh, de dpa an ninb tdi chinh qud'c gia. Dieu nay ddi bdi phai ed ca'u lai cdc khoan thu, tap trung md rdng cdc ngudn thu ndi dia va dd^y manh cdng tae quan ly thu tbue'. Nbd do, trong 2 nam 2016 - 2017, tdng thu NSNN thdc hien dIu VUdt so vdi cdc quyet djnh dd toan cua Qud'c hdi (nam 2016 vUdt 87 nghin ty ddng; nam 2017 vupt khoang 75 nghin ty ddng), dat 24,5% GDP (2016), Udc dat 25,7% GDP (2017). Mac dd vay, ty Id ddng vidn nay van khd cd the dddc khoi phuc nhu giai doan 2006 - 2010, bdi kbi phdn tich ve cd ca'u ngudn thu cho thd'y nhilu ngudn thu ed xu hUdng giam hoac khdng dn dinh. (Hinh 1).
Hinh 1: Tl trong tong thu NSNN/GDP (2006'2QU)
^m Tong thu can doi NSNN
• ^ Tons thu theo dir loan
Nguon: Tong hgp theo bdo cdo Bg Tdi chinh.
True trai: nghin ty dong; True phdi: % -I-) Ve cd ca'u nguon thu NSNN dang cd sU dilu chinh, nhUng vdn dda khd nbilu vao ngudn thid'u ben vdng nhU tai nguyen (dau tbd), boat ddng ngoai thUdng, td thoai vd'n nha nude tai cdc DNNNN. Bdi sU bid'n ddng gia dau the gidi khie'n tbu NSNN bi ddng, trong dai han trd Iddng dau khai tbdc se giam va khdng tdi tao; vidn trd khdng
hodn lai giam manh khi thu nhap binh qudn dau ngddi cua qud'c gia tang Idn; thud' xud't nhdp kbdu hi cat giam do cam kd't hdi nhap. Cu the, ty trpng thu ndi dia (khdng ke diu tbd) so vdi tdng tbu NSNN tbeo du toan (quye't todn) tang td mdc trung binh 57,85% trong giai doan 2006 - 2010 len 67,52% trong giai doan 2011 - 2015; ndm 2016 - 2017 dat khoang 80,1%. Ty trpng thu td dau thd da giam Uong tdng tbu NSNN td mdc trung binh 19,96% trong giai doan 2006 - 2010 xudng cdn 13,48% trong giai doan 2011 - 2015, den nam 2016 vd 2017 cbi cdn lan lUdt la 3,6 -3,8% td'ng tbu NSNN. Ty trpng thu can dd'i id boat ddng xua't - nhap khau so vdi tong tbu NSNN giam trung binh td 20,06% trong giai doan 2006 - 2010 xudng cdn 17,69% ti-ong giai doan 2011 - 2015. Ty trpng thu vidn trp khdng hodn lai giam trung binh td 2,12%
trong giai doan 2006-2010 xudng cdn 1,37% Uong giai doan 2011 - 2015; trong 2 nam 2016-2017 ty trpng ndy giam ban xud'ng mdc 0,76% vd 0,61%
(Hinh 2). Sd thay ddi trong hdn 10 nam cho tha'y cdc ngudn tbu NSNN dda vao dau thd, vidn trd vd xua't nhdp khau dd giam manh, khdng phai la ngudn ddng vien chinb cho ngdn sach.
Nhin b l ngodi, ngudn thu ndi dia (khdng ke dau tbd) tang len td 52% tdng thu NSNN(2006) Idn 80,09% (2017) de thay tbd' cdc ngudn thieu ben vdng, cho tha'y cd ca'u thu NSNN tbay ddi theo hudng tich cue kbi dua vao npi tai nen kinh te', nhuYig ne'u phdn tich ki hdn cd ca'u nguon thu ndi dia nay tha^y rang, cae khoan thu NSNN td khu vUc doanh ngbidp nhd nUdc trdn tdng thu npi dia ed chieu hudng giam manh td 33,3% (2013) xud'ng 14,2% (2017) kbi khdng tinh phan tbu cd tdc, ldi nhudn cdn lai cua DNNN; tien bdn cd phan sd bdu nba nude tai doanh nghidp id ndm 2015, tbu td hai khu vUc doanh nghidp FDI va doanh nghiep ngodi qud'c doanh cung giam 2-4 diem % trong tdng thu npi dia tiong giai doan 2013-2017. Dilu dd phan anh sdc khde cua khu vUc san xua't kinh doanh trong nddc van yd'u, khd ed kha nang md rdng ed sd tbu td khu \\ic ndy, bdi ne'u tid'p tuc tdng ty Id huy ddng td khu vdc nay cd the lam giam khd nang tie't kiem va dau lUtrUc tie'p vao khu v\ic san xud't kinh doanh.
Ngodi ra, tbu NSNN td tbue ed ehilu bddng giam (Ihue'/GDP gidm td khodng 24% ndm 2006 xudng mdc 18% nam 2016), trong khi ngudn thu NSNN khdng phai thud' (phi, le phi, nha d va da't cdng)
36 Sd4-Thang 3/2019
KINH TE
ngay cang tang; trong do ddc bidt la tbu tien sd dung da't, tien thud da't, mat nddc, bdn nba d thudc sd hdu nha nUde (nam 2016, chiem gan 14% tdng tbu ndi dia khdng ke dau tbd, tang len so vdi mdc trung binh 11,08% cua giai doan 2011-2015). Vide ban tai san cua nha nddc khie'n quy md lai san giam, nguon tbu do do cung se giam sut, khdng ben vdng trong tUdng lai. Cdc khoan phi. Id phi ddng gdp NSNN tdng len phan anh vide phai chi tra cho tidu diing dich vu cdng ngddi dan dang tdng Idn ben canh tbue' ma ngddi dan phai nop, nhd vay cd the dddc coi la thud' chdng thue gay ra nbilu tranh eai va bdc xuc trong ddludn trong thdi gian gan day, dac bidt trong linh vdc giao thdng. (Hinh 2).
Hinh 2: Cd cau thu NSNN theo dU toan Quoc hoi (da difdc quyet toan)
• TIiu noi dia khSng ke • Thu tii XNK thu tu dau (ho
B Thu Iw dau tho •Vi^tri;/
Nguon: Tinh todn dua vdo bdo cdo BTC +) Tinh trang that tboat ngudn thu NSNN cao do no dong thue', trd'n thud' vdn diln ra pbdc tap, anh hddng khdng nhd de'n tinh bin vdng cua ngudn thu thud'. Thdi dilm dd'n ngay 31/12/2016, sd nd thud'la 77,3 nghin ty ddng; Thdi diem dd'n ngay 31/12/2017, con sdnay la 78,45 nghin ty ddng. Va dd'n thdi dilm 30/9/2018, sd nd thud' xa'p xi 83 nghln ty ddng (tang 9,8 nghin ty ddng so vdi thdi diem 31/12/2017). Ty trpng sd nd thue trdn td'ng thu ndi dia cd xu hUdng giam (thdi diem de'n 31/12/2016 d mdc 8,7%; 31/12/2017 la 7,6% va 30/9/2018 la 7,0%), tuy nbidn, ty trpng nay vdn cao bdn so vdi ngUdng nd thud' theo thdng Id qud'c te' (5%). Trong do, sd nd thud' khdng cd kha nang thu hdi Id kha cao, chid'm khoang 42% tdng sd tiln thud' nd, do cd quan thud' quati ly va chie'm 72%
tdng sd tidn thud nd do cd quan hai quan quan ly"^.
Hidn tUdng nd thud' cd dd'u hieu gia tdng mot phan la do theo quy dinh cua Ludt thue', tien phat do cham nop thue' tha'p hdn tien lai gdi ngan hang ndn nhidu doanh ngbidp thda nhdn ed' tinh ndp cham nhdm hddng chenh lech nay. Sd' Idpng doanh ngbidp cd' tinh nd thud' vdi muc dich chid'm dung ngdn sach dang dien ra phd bie'n va cd tinb xu budng. Cung vdi dd, hien tUpng chuyin gia trong khu vdc doanh nghiep FDI dien ra pbdc tap vd ngay cdng tinb vi (theo mdt bao cdo eua Bd Tai chinh, trong nam 2017 cd 2.673 doanh nghiep Id md't vd'n, trong so nay cd de'n 1.590 doanh nghidp Id ma't vd'n nhUng vdn md rdng san xud't - kinh doanh. Nguydn nhdn ebu yd'u la do khdng quan ly dUdc ddng tiln va diem den cua cdc ddng tien nay, cdng nghe nganh Thud' cdn lac hau, khdng theo kip cdng nghe linh vdc ngdn hang va vidn thdng, dd hdu bdn hang cud'i ngay cua dd'i tUdng chiu thud' khdng dUdc chuyen ve may chu cd quan thue tai cdc ca'p quan ly (theo IMF) ; Ngoai ra, con sd' tha't tbu thud' do cac du ddi thue dan trai (bao gdm ea phi, le phi vd tien thud mat nddc) Udc tinb la 64 nghin ty ddng (2016), tddng dUdng 5,8% tdng thu NSNN, 33% tdng chi thUdng xuydn cho gido due dao tao va 84% cho y te'. Trong dd, tbud'TNDN ed con sd' tha't thu do Uu dai thud' nhieu nhd't, dd'i tddng mi dai thud' thddng la cdc doanh nghiep FDI,
+) Tinb luy tid'n he tbd'ng thue' Vidt Nam dupc ebo la ye'u, do dd se gap nhieu trd ngai nd'u Chinb phu mud'n md rdng ty sud't tiiue, ed sd thud'bode dd'i tUdng chiu thue' de tang ngudn tbu, Tbeo Bdo cao cdng bang Thue Viet Nam nam 2017 (VEPR) cho thd'y, ty trpng thud' gian thu tang nhanh \^i mdc hdn 40% tong thu td thud' nam 2006 len trdn 60% vao nam 2016, ty trpng tiiue tirfe tbu dang gidm nhanh (td gan 50% ndm 2006 xud'ng 35% nam 2016. Trong khi dd, thud' gian thu (ddnh vao tidu dung) dd thu hdn so vdi thud' trUc thu (thud' danh vad thu nhdp) nhUng la loai thuecd tinh luy thoai (phan phdi lai thu nhdp kem). Hidn nay, thue gid tri gia tang la nguon thu Idn nhat trong cdc loai thud' gian tbu (50- 60% tdng sd thu ti^f tbue' gian tbu), eon tbue thu nh|p doanh nghidp Id loai thue ttUc thu ddng gdp nhieu nba't tiong sd cdc loai thue trUc thu va la loai thue' ddng gdp nhieu thd 2 chi sau VAT, my nhidn^sau nam 2013 thud' tbu nhap doanb nghidp giam ea ve sd thu va ty trpng trong thu thue va thu NSNN.
S o 4 - T h a n g 3/2019 37
TAP CHJ CONG THiraNB
NSNN/GDP ciia Viet Nam dang tbeo xu hudng giam, trong khi ty Id nay lai dang dn dinh va di len d cdc qudc gia lang gilng trong khu vUe, nhu ASEAN-i-4 (Ma-lay-xia, In-dd-ne-xia, Phi-lip-pin va Thdi Lan), CHDCND Lao va Cam-pu-chia.
Vd'n de dang lo ngai la ty le ddng vien vao NSNN cd xu hddng giam dan, trong khi dp Idc tang ebi tidu cdng ca ve dau tuva thddng xuydn van cao, cac chi sd' an todn nd dd gan sdt cdc gidi ban an toan tbeo ludt dinh. de dpa an ninh tai chinh qud'c gia, Dieu nay ddi hdi phai cd ca'u lai cdc khoan thu, tdp trung md rdng cac ngudn thu ndi dia va day manh cdng tdc quan ly thu thue. Nhd do, trong 2 ndm 2016 - 2017, tdng tbu NSNN tbue bidn dIu vUpt so vdi cdc quye't dinh du todn eua Qud'c bdi (ndm 2016 vUdt 87 nghln ty ddng; nam 2017 vUdt khoang 75 nghln ty ddng), dat 24,5% GDP (2016), Udc dat 25,7% GDP (2017), Mac du vay, ty le ddng vidn nay van khd ed the dupe khdi phuc nhu giai doan 2006 - 2010, bdi kbi phdn tich ve cd cd'u ngudn thu cho tha'y nhilu ngudn thu cd xu hudng giam hoac khdng do dinb, (Hlnb 1).
Hinh 1: Tl trong tong thu NSNN/GDP (2006-2017)
1000 - 500 - 0
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o o o o o o o o o o o o 30,00 1 20.00 1 10 00 i 0-00 :
^ ^ Tong thu can doi NSNN
^ T6n2 thu theo du loaH '^V '? T6ng (hu theo du toan/GDP
Nguon: Tong hgp theo bdo cdo Bg Tdi chink True trai: nghln ty dong; True phdi: % -\-) v l cd ca'u ngudn tbu NSNN dang ed sU dilu chinh, nhdng vdn dUa kha nhilu vao ngudn thid'u ben vdng nhu tai nguyen (dau thd), boat ddng ngoai thUdng, td tbodi vd'n nbd nddc tai eac DNNNN. Bdi sd bid'n ddng gia dau thd' gidi khid'n tbu NSNN bi ddng, ti-ong dai han trd lUdng dau khai thdc se giam va khdng tai tao; vidn trd khdng
hoan lai gidm manh khi thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi cua qud'c gia tang Idn; thud' xud't nhdp khau bi cat giam do cam kd't bdi nhap. Cu the, ty trpng tbu ndi dia (khdng ke dau thd) so vdi tong thu NSNN theo dd todn (quyd't todn) tang tiJ- mdc trung binh 57,85% trong giai doan 2006 - 2010 len 67,52% trong giai doan 2011 - 2015; nam 2016 - 2017 dat khoang 80,1%. Ty trpng thu td dau thd da giam trong tdng tbu NSNN td mdc trung binh 19,96% trong giai doan 2006 - 2010 xudng cdn 13,48% trong giai doan 2011 - 2015, dd'n nam 2016 va 2017 chi cdn lan lUdt la 3,6 -3,8% tdng thu NSNN. Ty trpng tbu cdn dd'i td hoat ddng xua't - nhdp khau sd vdi tdng thu NSNN giam trung binh td 20,06% trong giai doan 2006 - 2010 xud'ng eon 17,69% trong giai doan 2011 - 2015. Ty trpng thu vidn trd khdng hodn lai giam trung binh td 2,12%
trong giai doan 2006- 2010 xud'ng cdn 1,37% trong giai doan 2011 - 2015; trong 2 nam 2016-2017 ty trpng nay giam ban xud'ng mdc 0,76% va 0,61%
(Hinh 2). Su thay doi trong hdn 10 nam ebo thd'y cdc ngudn thu NSNN dUa vao dau thd, vien trd va xua't nhdp khau da giam manh, khdng phai la ngudn ddng vidn chinh cho ngdn sach.
Nhin bl ngoai, ngudn thu ndi dia (khdng ke dau thd) tang len td 52% tdng thu NSNN(2006) len 80,09% (2017) d l thay the' cdc ngudn thieu bin vdng, ebo thd'y ed cd'u thu NSNN thay ddi theo hudng tich cUc khi dUa vao ndi tai nen kmh td', nhUng nd'u phan tich kT hdn ed ed'u ngudn thu ndi dia nay thd'y rang, cac khoan tbu NSNN td khu vdc doanh nghidp nhd nddc tren tdng thu npi dia cd chieu hudng giam manh td 33,3% (2013) xud'ng 14,2% (2017) khi khdng tinh phan thu cd tij-c, idi nhuan cdn lai cua DNNN; tien bdn ed phdn sd hdu nha nUde tai doanh nghiep td nam 2015, thu td hai khu vUc doanh nghidp FDI va doanb nghiep ngodi qud'c doanb cung giam 2-4 diem % trong tong thu npi dia trong giai doan 2013-2017. Dieu dd phdn dnh sdc khde cua khu vdc san xud't kinh doanh tiong nudc vdn ye'u, khd cd kba nang md rpng cd sd tbu td khu vUc nay, bdi nd'u tie'p tuc tang ty Id buy ddng td khu vdc nay ed thi lam giam kha nang tid't kiem va dau tU trUe tid'p vao khu vUc san xud'l kinh doanh, Ngoai ra, thu NSNN td tiiud' cd ehilu hudng giam (thud'/GDP giam tii khoang 24% nam 2006 xud'ng mdc 18% nam 2016), trong khi ngudn tbu NSNN khdng phai thud' (phi. Id phi, nha d vd da't cdng)
36 So 4-Thang 3/2019
KINHTE
ngay cang tang; trong do ddc biet la thu tiln sd dung da't, tiln thue da't, mat nddc, ban nba d thupc sd hdu nha nUdc (nam 2016, chid'm gan 14% tdng thu ndi dia khdng k l dau thd, tang Idn so vdi mdc trung binh 11,08% eua giai doan 2011 -2015). Viec ban tai san cua nha nude khid'n quy md tai san giam, nguon thu do do cung se giam sut, khdng ben vdng ttong lUdng lai. Cdc khoan phi. Id phi ddng gdp NSNN tdng Idn phdn dnh viec phai ebi tra cho tieu dung dich vu cdng ngUdi ddn dang tang Idn bdn canh thud' ma ngddi dan phai nop, nhd vay cd the dupe coi la thue' chdng thue' gay ra nhilu tranh cai va bdc xuc trong dd ludn trong thdi gian gan day, ddc biet ti-ong Iinh vdc giao thdng. (Hinh 2).
Hinh 2: Cd ca'u thu NSNN theo dif toan Quoc hgi (da dt/dc quyet todn)
• Thtin^idiakhongke thu tir dau tho
Nguon: Tinh todn dUa vdo bdo cdo BTC +) Tmh trang tha't tboat ngudn thu NSNN cao do np dong thud', trdn thud' vdn didn ra phdc tap, anh hudng khdng nbd dd'n tinb bin vdng cua ngudn thu thue'. Thdi dilm dd'n ngay 31/12/2016, sd' nd thud' Id 77,3 nghin ty ddng; Thdi diem dd'n ngay 31/12/20! 7, con sd nay la 78,45 nghin ty ddng, Vd dd'n thdi diem 30/9/2018, sd np thud' xa'p xi 83 nghln ty ddng (tang 9,8 nghin ty ddng so vdi thdi diem 31/12/2017). Ty trong sd' nd thue' tren tdng tbu ndi dia cd xu hddng giam (thdi diem de'n 31/12/2016 d mdc 8,7%; 31/12/2017 la 7,6% vd 30/9/2018 Id 7,0%), tuy nhidn, ty trpng nay vdn cao bdn so vdi ngddng nd thud' theo thdng Id qud'c td' (5%). Trong do, sd'nd thue kbdnged kha ndng thu hdi la kha cao, chie'm khoang 42% td'ng sd' tien thue' nd, do cd quan thue quan ly va chid'm 72%
tdng sd' tien thue np do ed quan hai quan qudn ly'^.
Hidn tddng nd tbue' cd dd'u bidu gia tdng mdt phan la do theo quy dinb eua Ludt thud', tien phat do cham ndp thud' tha'p bdn tiln lai gdi ngdn hang nen nhilu doanh nghiep thda nhdn ed' tinh nop cham nham bddng chdnh lech nay. Sd' Iddng doanh nghidp CO tinh nd thue vdi muc dich chid'm dung ngdn sdch dang dien ra pho bid'n va cd tinh xu hudng. Cung vdi dd, hidn tddng chuyen gia treng khu vdc doanh nghiep FDI didn ra phdc tap vd ngdy cdng tinh vi (tbeo mdt bao cao eua Bd Tai chinh, trong nam 2017 cd 2.673 doanh nghidp Id md't vd'n, trong so nay ed de'n 1.590 doanb nghiep Id ma't vd'n nhdng van md rdng sdn xua't - kinh doanh. Nguyen nhdn ebu ye'u la do khdng qudn ly dUde ddng tiln va diem dd'n eua cdc ddng tiln nay, cdng nghe nganh Thud' cdn lac hau, khdng theo kip cdng nghe ITnh vdc ngan hang va vidn thdng, dd heu ban hang cud'i ngdy eua dd'i tddng chiu thud' khdng dddc chuyin ve may chu cd quan thud' tai cac ca'p quan ly (theo IMF)...; Ngoai ra, con sd' tiia't thu thud' do cdc Uu dai thue dan trai (bao gdm ca phi. Id phi va tiln thud mat nUde) ddc tinb la 64 nghin ty dong (2016), tddng dddng 5,8% tdng thu NSNN, 33% tdng chi thudng xuydn cho giao due dao tao va 84% cho y te', Trong do, tbue TNDN cd eon sd' tha't thu do du dai tbue nhilu nha't, dd'i tUdng
\i\i dai thud'thudng la cac doanh nghiep FDI.
+) Tinh luy tid'n bd tiid'ng thud' Viet Nam dupe cho la ye'u, do dd se gap nhieu tid ngai neu Chinh phu mud'n md rpng ty sud't thue', cd sd thud'bode dd'i tUdng chiu tbue de tang nguon tbu, Theo Bao cao cdng bang Thue' Viet Nam nam 2017 (VEPR) cho thd'y, ty trpng tbue gidn thu tang nhanh td mdc bdn 40% tdng thu td tbue nam 2006 len tren 60% vao nam 2016, ty trpng thud' trdc tbu dang giam nhanh (tiJgdn 50% ndm 2006 xud'ng 35% nam 2016. Trong kbi do, thud' gian tbu (danh vao tidu dung) dd thu bdn so vdi thud' trdc fliu (thud' ddnh vdo tbu nhap) nhdng la loai thue' cd tinb luy thoai (phan phdi lai thu nhdp kem). Hidn nay, thud' gia tri gia tang la nguon thu Idn nba't trong cdc loai thud'gidn thu (50- 60% tdng sd'thu td thue'gian thu), cdn thue thu nhap doanb ngbidp la loai tiiud' trUe thu ddng gdp nhieu nhd't trong sd' cac loai tbul true thu va la loai thud' ddng gdp nhilu thd 2 chi sau VAT, tuy nhidn sau ndm 2013 tbue' thu nhap doanh nghidp giam ca ve sd thu va ty ti-ong trong thu tbue' vd tbu NSNN,
So 4 - T h a n g 3/2019 37
TAP GHJ CONG THirifntG
NSNN/GDP cua Viet Nam dang theo xu budng giam, trong khi ty Id nay lai dang dn dinh va di Idn d cac qud'c gia lang gieng trong khu vdc. nhu ASEAN+4 (Ma-lay-xia, In-dd-nd-xia, Phi-lip-pin va Thai Lan), CHDCND Lao va Cam-pu-chia.
Vd'n de dang lo ngai la ty Id ddng vidn vao NSNN ed xu budng giam dan, trong khi dp Idc tang chi tidu cdng ca vl dau tU va thUdng xuydn vdn cao, cac chi sd' an todn np dd gdn sdt cac gidi ban an toan tbeo ludt dinh, de dpa an ninh tai cbinb qud'c gia. Dieu nay ddi hdi pbai ed ed'u lai cdc khoan thu, tap trung md rdng cdc ngudn tbu npi dia vd day manh cdng tdc quan ly tbu tbue. Nhd do, trong 2 nam 2016 - 2017, tdng thu NSNN thUe hidn deu vupt so vdi cdc quye't dinh du toan cua Qudc hdi (nam 2016 vUdt 87 nghln ty ddng; nam 2017 vUdt khoang 75 nghln ty ddng), dat 24,5% GDP (2016), Udc dat 25,7% GDP (2017). Mae du vdy, ty Id ddng vien nay van khd cd the dUdc khdi phuc nhu giai doan 2006 - 2010, bdi khi phan ticb ve cd ca'u ngudn thu cho thay nhieu ngudn tbu ed xu hudng giam bode khdng dn dinh. (Hinh 1).
Hinh 1: 77 trong tong thu NSNN/GDP (2006-2017)
• Tong thu theo du toan
—Ty le Tone thu ci NS / G D P ~
—Ty le Tong ihu theo du toan/GDP Nguon: Tong hop theo bdo cdo Bd Tdi chinh.
True trai: nghin ty dong; True phdi: % +) Ve cd cd'u ngudn thu NSNN dang ed sd dieu ehinh, nhung van dUa khd nhilu vao ngudn thie'u bin vdng nhd tdi nguyen (dau thd), hoat ddng ngoai thUdng, td thoai vd'n nbd nude tai cac DNNNN. Bdi sU bid'n ddng gid dau thd' gidi khie'n thu NSNN bi ddng, trong dai ban trd lUdng ddu khai thac se giam vd khdng tai tao; vidn trd khdng
hoan lai giam manh khi thu nhdp binh qudn dau ngudi eua qudc gia tang Idn; thud' xud't nhap kha'u bi cat giam do cam kd't hdi nhdp. Cu the, ty trpng tbu ndi dia (khdng ke dau thd) so vdi tdng thu NSNN theo du toan (quye't toan) tang td mdc trung binh 57,85% trong giai doan 2006 - 2010 Idn 67,52% trong giai doan 2011 - 2015; nam 2016 - 2017 dat khoang 80,1%. Ty trpng thu td ddu thd da giam trong tdng thu NSNN td mdc trung binh 19,96% trong giai doan 2006 - 2010 xudng cdn 13,48% trong giai doan 2011 - 2015, de'n nam 2016 va 2017 chi edu lan lUdt la 3,6 -3,8% tdng thu NSNN. Ty trpng thu can ddi td boat ddng xua't - nhdp khau so vdi tong thu NSNN giam trung binh tiJ" 20,06% trong giai doan 2006 - 2010 xudng cdn 17,69% trong giai doan 2011 - 2015. Ty trpng tiiu vien trd khdng hoan lai giam trung binh td 2,12%
trong giai doan 2006 - 2010 xud'ng cdn 1,37% trong giai doan 2011 - 2015; trong 2 nam 2016-2017 ty trpng nay giam ban xud'ng mdc 0,76% va 0,61%
(Hinh 2). Sd thay ddi tiong hdn 10 nam cho tha'y cac ngudn thu NSNN dUa vdo dau thd, vidn trd vd xud't nhdp khau dd giam manh, khdng phai la ngudn ddng vidn chinh cho ngan sdch.
Nhin b l ngoai, ngudn thu ndi dia (khdng ke dau thd) tang len td 52% tdng tiiu NSNN(2006) Idn 80,09% (2017) d l tbay the' cdc ngudn thie'u ben vdng, cho thd'y cd ca'u tbu NSNN thay doi theo hudng tich cue khi dUa vao ndi tai nen kinh td', nhUng ne'u phan tich ki hdn ed ca'u nguon thu ndi dia nay tha'y rang, cdc khoan thu NSNN td khu vdc doanb nghidp nha nddc trdn tong thu npi dia cd chieu hddng gidm manh td 33,3% (2013) xud'ng 14,2% (2017) khi khdng tinh phan tbu cd tdc, ldi nhuan cdn lai cua DNNN; tien ban cd phan sd hdu nhd nUdc tai doanh nghidp tdnam 2015, thu tdbai khu vdc doanh nghiep FDI va doanb nghidp ngoai qud'c doanh cung giam 2-4 diem % trong tong thu npi dia trong giai doan 2013-2017. Dieu dd phan dnh sdc khoe cua khu vUc san xuat kinh doanh trong nude vdn ye'u, khd cd kha nang md rdng cd sd tbu td khu vUc nay, bdi nd'u tid'p tuc tang ty Id huy ddng td khu vdc nay cd the lam gidm kha ndng tie't kiem va dau tUtrUc tie'p vao khu vdc san xud't kinh doanh.
Ngoai ra, thu NSNN td thue cd chieu hUdng giam (thud'/GDP giam td khoang 24% nam 2006 xudng mdc 18% nam 2016), trong khi ngudn thu NSNN khdng phdi thud' (phi. Id phi. nha d va da't cdng)
36 So 4-Thang 3/2019
KINH TE
ngay cang tdng; ttong dd dac biet la tbu tien sd dung da't, tien thud dd't, mat nUdc, ban nha d thudc sd hdu nha nddc (nam 2016, chid'm gan 14% tong thu ndi dia khdng ke dau thd, tang len so vdi mdc trung binh 11,08% eua giai doan 2011-2015). Vide ban tai sdn cua nha mfde khid'n quy md tai sdn giam, nguln tbu do dd cung se giam sdt, khdng ben vdng ttong tddng lai. Cae kboan phi, le phi ddng gdp NSNN tang len phan dnh vide pbai chi tra cho tidu dung dich vu cdng ngddi dan dang tang len bdn canh thud' ma ngUdi ddn pbai nop, nhu vdy cd the dddc coi Id thud' chdng thue gay ra nhieu tranh cdi vd bdc xuc trong du luan ttong thdi gian gan ddy, ddc bidt ttong ITnh VUC giao thdng. (Hlnb 2),
Hinh 2: Cd cau thu NSNN theo dU todn Quoc hgi (da dUdc quyet toan)
100%
• Thu not dia khong ke thu tir diiu tho
Nguon: Tinh todn dua vdo bdo cdo BTC
•¥) Tmh ttang thd't thoat ngudn tbu NSNN cao do nd dong thud', trd'n thud' van didn ra phdc tap, anh hddng khdng nhd dd'n tinh ben vdng eua ngudn thu thud'. Thdi dilm de'n ngdy 31/12/2016, sd n6 thud' la 77,3 nghin ty ddng; Thdi diem dd'n ngay 31/12/2017, con sdnay la 78,45 nghin ty ddng, Va de'n thdi dilm 30/9/2018, sd nd thud' xa'p xi 83 nghin ty ddng (tang 9,8 nghin ty ddng so vdi thdi diem 31/12/2017). Ty trong sd nd thud' ttdn tdng tbu ndi dia cd xu hUdng giam (thdi diem dd'n 31/12/2016 d mdc 8,7%; 31/12/2017 la 7,6% va 30/9/2018 la 7,0%), tuy nbidn, ty trpng nay vdn cao hdn so vdi ngUdng nd thud' theo thdng Id qud'c te' (5%). Trong dd, sd'nd thud'kbdnged khd nang thu hdi la kha cao, chid'm khoang 42% tong so' tien tiiue' nd, do cd quan thue quan ly va chid'm 72%
tdng so'tien thud'np do cdquan hai quan quan ly''.
Hidn tUdng nd thuecd dd'u bidu gia tang mdt phan Id do theo quy dinh eua Ludt thud', tiln phat do cham nop tiiue tha'p hdn tiln ldi gdi ngan hang ndn nhieu doanb nghiep thda nhan co tinh ndp cham nham birdng ehdnh lech nay. So' lUdng doanb nghidp cd' tinh nd thud' vdi muc dich chid'm dung ngdn sdch dang dien ra phd bie'n va cd tinb xu hudng. Ciing vdi dd, bidn tUdng chuyen gid trong khu vUc doanh nghidp FDI dien ra phdc tap vd ngay cang tinh vi (theo mdt bao cdo eua Bd Tdi cbinh, ttong nam 2017 cd 2.673 doanh nghiep Id md't vd'n, trong sd' nay ed dd'n 1.590 doanb nghidp id ma't vd'n nhdng van md rdng san xua't - kinh doanh. Nguydn nhdn chu yd'u Id do khdng qudn ly du'dc ddng Uen va diem dd'n cua cdc ddng tiln nay, cdng nghe nganh Thud' cdn lac ban, khdng theo kip cdng nghe ITnb vUc ngan hang va vidn thdng, dd heu ban hang cud'i ngdy eua ddi tUdng chiu thue khdng dupc chuyen ve may chu cd quan thud' tai cdc ca'p quan ly (theo IMF)...; Ngoai ra, con sd tha't tbu thud' do eac Uu dai tbue' dan trdi (bao gdm ca phi, le phi va tien thue mat nddc) ddc tinh la 64 nghln ty ddng (2016), tddng dddng 5,8% tong tbu NSNN, 33% tdng chi thddng xuyen cho giao due dao tao va 84% cho y td'. Trong dd, thud'TNDN cd con sd'tha't thu do Uu dai tbue'nhieu nha't, dd'i tUdng du dai tbue' thddng la cdc doanh nghidp FDI.
-I-) Tinb lOy tid'n he thd'ng thue Viet Nam dupc cho Id yd'u, do dd se gap nhieu trd ngai nd'u Chinb phd mud'n md rdng ty sud't tiiud', cd sd thul bode ddi tUdng chiu tbue de tang ngudn thu. Thed Bao cao cdng bang Thud' Vidt Nam nam 2017 (VEPR) cho thd'y, ty ttong tbue gian thu tdng nhanh td mdc hdn 40% tdng tbu td tbue' nam 2006 len ttdn 60% vdo nam 2016, ty trpng thud' trdc tiiu dang giam nhanh (td gdn 50% nam 2006 xud'ng 35% nam 2016. Trong khi do, thud' gidn thu (ddnh vao tidu dung) dd thu hdn sd vdi tbue ti-Uc thu (thue' ddnh vao tbu nhap) nhUng la loai thue' cd tinh luy thoai (phan phdi lai tbu nhap kem). Hidn nay, thud' gid tn gia tang la ngudn tbu Idn nhd't trong cdc loai tbue gian tbu (50- 60% tdng sd thu td thud' gian tiiu), cdn tiiue thu nhdp doanh nghidp la loai thud' trUc tiiu ddng gdp nhieu nba't trong sd cdc loai thud' trdc tbu va la loai thud' ddng gdp nhilu thd 2 chi sau VAT, tuy nbidn sau ndm 2013 thue' thu nhap doanh nghidp giam ea ve sd tiiu va t^ trpng trong thu thud' va tbu NSNN.
Sd4-Thang 3/2019 37
lAPCniCONGlHiniNG
3. De xua't khuyd'n nghi
Trong thdi gian tdi, cung ed' mdc buy ddng vao ngan sdch va dieu chinh ed ca'u ngudn thu NSNN la vide can pbai lam de dam bao tinh ben vdng cua NSNN, trong kbi vdn dam bdo cdc kboan chi tidu quan trpng cua Nha nddc dd'i vdi dau tUphal trien va an sinb xa hdi. Dodd mot sd'npi dung cdn lam la:
Thi'f nhdt, eai cdch cbinh sdch thud' theo hddng day manh thu ndi dia va dam bao tinh cdng bang, hieu qua, day du cua he tbd'ng thud' theo thdng Id qud'c td' (ndn cdn dd'i lai cdc sac thud' trdc thu vd gidn thu de dam bao tinb luy tid'n cua thud'). Cu the: (i) Tinh todn tang thud' sua't thue tieu thu dac biet dd'i vdi mdt sd' hang hda va dich vu khdng khuyd'n khich tidu dung (vi du nhU cac mat hdng thud'c Id, bia ritdu, vang md, du thuyin, bay kinh doanh casino, kmh doanb vu trUdng, gdn„, hien van dang cd mdc thud'tUdng dd'i tbd'p, do dd tdng budc md rdng pham vi dp dung va tang tbue' sud't thue' tidu tbu ddc biet dd'i vdi mdt sd' mat hang nay sd dem lai tac ddng ticb cdc dd'i vdi ngan sach ve huy ddng thu, ddng thdi tbay dii thdi quen cua ngUdi tieu dung theo hddng giam tieu dung eac mat hang khdng ed ldi cho sdc khde va mdi trddng, tai nguyen hoac khdng phu hdp vdi thu nhap binh qudn dau ngUdi cua ngUdi ddn), (ii) Md rdng ed sd thu thud' dd'i vdi thue' tbu nhdp doanh nghiep (xem xet nhdm doanb ngbidp FDI) va dieu chinb cdc chinh sach du ddi thud'theo hddng thd'ng nhd't, ddn gian, ed chpn Ipc va gan vdi cdc dinh budng phat trien nganh, linh vdc; ddng thdi can danh gia Idi ich vd chi phi cua chinh sdch Uu dai thud'trddc khi ban hanh, (ill) chinh sach thue' tbu nhap ea nhan cdn dUde dilu chinh tbeo hddng md rpng cd sd tbu thud', dieu chinb thud' sud't vdi ngudn thu nhdp ttong dien chiu thud' mdt each hdp ly (nhU thu nhap td chuyin nhupng tdi nguydn sd', boat ddng thUdng mai didn td, trung xo sd' vdi gid tri trung Idn) va dd'i tddng nop thud' de nang cao tinb tuan tbu phdp ludt, khuyd'n khich cd sd kinh ddanb ed the (ed quy rad sd dung lao ddng boac quy md tai san, vd'n
tUdng dUdng doanh nghidp) chuyen sang boat ddng theo hlnb tbdc doanb nghidp, tang cUdng tinh minh bach va tao thudn ldi cho cdng tac quan ly tbue', (iv) Cbinb sach thue'tai san can dddc nghien edu va tid'p can hpp ly, thd'ng nba't va cdng bang, md rdng dd'i tUdng thu thud'tai sdn doi vdi tai san gan liln vdi dd't va cac tdi san cd gia tri khac, pbu hpp vdi mdi giai doan phat trien kinh td' - xa hdi cua Viet Nam va thdng Id qud'c td', dUa thud'tdi san trd thanb mot ttong nhdng ngudn ddng vien quan trpng va dn dinh eho NSNN thay tbd' ngudn thu td ban tai san cdng, ddng thdi giup ban che' hidn tddng ddu ed da't dai, nha d gdy lang phi nguln lUc danh cho dau tu san xud't nhu bidn nay. (v) Vdi thud' tai nguydn va bdo ve mdi trUdng can dieu chinb thud' sua't va ddi tupng chiu tbue de pbu hdp va dinb hUdng ndng cao trinh dp phdt trien kinh te' - xd hdi, khuyd'n khich chd'bid'n sau, ban chd'xua't khau tai nguyen tbd, bao vd tdi nguydn, mdi trddng Cd the nghidn edu kinh ngbidm tbue' xanh (thud' nang Iddng, thud' giao thdng) eua cae nddc OECD de tdng tbu ndi dia, giup dat dUdc muc tieu phdt trien bin vdng, giam phdt thai nha kinh, khac phuc bdi ebi.
Thd hai, nang cao bidu qua cdng tac qudn ly banh chinh vl tbue' dUa vao thdng tin minh bach va dp dung kiem tra dUa trdn rui ro; do dd can day manh cai cdch tbu tuc banh chinb trong linh vUc thud', day manh cbinb phu dien td, bidn dai hda quan ly thue'bang cdng nghe thdng tin va dd Ueu Idn (big data), cung nhd chia se thdng tin doanh ngbidp ttong ndi bd cd quan quan ly nba nUde td dang ki, dau tu md rdng, doanh tbu, ldi nhuan, chi phi de xd ly tinh trang gian Idn, chuydn gid, np thud'.
Thd ha, can nudi dUdng, tao ngudn thu ben vdng cho NSNN trong ddi ban bang cdc chinh sdch tbdo gd khd khan cho hoat ddng sdn xua't - kinh doanb, cai thidn mdi trddng dau td (cai cdch thu tuc hdnh chinh, cdt giam dieu kien kinh doanh, sda ddi, bd sung cae chinb sach dam bao pbu hdp vdi thdc td'), tao dilu kien thuan Idi cho doanb nghidp phdt trien •
TAI LIEU TRICH DAN:
'Cudi thap nien SO, nhd ly thuyet chinh tri ngudi Ddc Adolph Wagner di ra quy luat md rdng hoat ddng cua chinh phu, nhdn manh rang ty trong ciia khu viXc cong (do ludng bang ty IS chi tieu chinh phii so vdi GDP) cd .xu hudng tang len khi thu nhdp binh qudn ddu ngiidi tang len.
38 So 4-Thang 3/2019
KINH TE
^Theo IMF, khi tinh cdn ddi NSNN khong bao gSm chi trd ng gdc. Cdn theo cdch tinh cHa Bg Tdi chinh trUdc ndm 2016 bao gom cd chi trd ng gdc, tie ndm 2017 se loai tri^t chi trd na goc khi cdn ddi ngdn sdch nhd nude.
'Theohnp://cafef.vn/tinh-hinh'tai-chinh-ngan-sach-2018-duoi-goc-nhin-chuyen-gia-phan-tich-20190205085543234.clm -'http://www.mof. gov.vn/webcenter/portal/tttc/r/o/tlsk/ttsk_chitiet?dDocName=MOFUCM147862&__afr- Loop = 295697421972570] W1%40%40%3F _afrLoop%3D29569742]9725701 l%26dDocName%3DMO- FUCM147862 %26_adf. ctrl-slate %3Dk920vj93d_9
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO;
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Ngay nh$n bai: 11/2/2019
Ngay phan bidn danh gia va si^a chu'a: 21/2/2019 Ngay chap nhan dang bai: 1/3/2019
Thdng tin tac gia:
1. PGS.TS. PHAM THI TUE - ThS. D 5 THI THANH HUYEN Trddng Dai hpc Thdrfng mai
ASSESSING THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE STATE BUDGET UNDER THE VIEW OF STATE BUDGET MOBILIZATION SOURCES
• AssocProf, Ph.D PHAM THI TUE
• Master. DO THI THANH HUYEN Thuongmai University ABSTRACT:
The state budget is a special financial fund that plays an important role in socio-economic development activities, ensuring national security and diplomacy. Budget collection and spending activities are important tools used by the State to carry out macro management and regulation roles for tiie entire economy. Keeping the state budget sustainable is one of important tasks to maintain the national financial sustainability and security. The sustainability of the slate budget depends on many factors, in which the sustainabihty aspect of state budget revenue sources cannot be neglected. This article analyzes the current situation of Vietnam's state budget and the sti-ucture of state budget collection in the period of 2006-2017 to point out issues affecting the maintenance and sustainable development of state budget mobilization sources and propose some recommendations for state budget collection activities to ensure the state budget sustainabihty in the coming time.
Keywords: Sustainability of Uie state budget, state budget mobilization sources, state budget collection.
So4-Tharig3/2019 39