Hieu U'ng n a cong vai tang tru'dng kinh t l va ham y chmh sach cho Viet Nam
PGS. TS. PHAM THE ANH NGUVfeN H 6 N G N G O C "
Bdi viel ndy xem xet moi quan he giita ng cong vai tdng truang kinh te. Sir dymg mo htnh dii lieu mdng cua cdc quoc gia m&i noi vd dang phdt triin trong giai dogn 2001 - 2013, nghien ciru nay chi ra rdng nguang ng cong loi uu cho ldng Iruang cua cde quoc gia ndy, trong do co Viet Nam Id vdo khodng 53% GDP. Kit qud con cho thdy khong nen de ng cong vugt qud con so 61% GDP, bai khi dd no chdc chan se gdy ra dnh huang liiu cue din ldng Iruang kinh ti Ngodi ra, tit kinh nghiim qudn ly ng cong tgi bon quoc gia diin hinh co nhiiu net luang dong, bdi viit dua ra mot so khuyin nghi chinh sdch cho Viet Nam trong th&i gian lai nhdm cdi Ihien tinh hinh ng cong hiin nay.
Tit khoa: Chinh sdch qudn ly ng, hiiu iing ngudng. ng cong, ldng iruang kinh li.
1. Dan nhap
v l mat ly thuydt, ng cdng cd the tac ddng tich cue hodc lieu cue den mftc ldng sdn lugng cua ndn kinh ll. Xet v l lac ddng lich cyc, chinh phu cdc qudc gia sft dyng ng cdng nhu mpt cdng cu tdi trg vdn, dap ftng nhu cau ddu lu, khuyen khich phdt tridn sdn xudt va kich thich tdng tmdng kinh te. Tuy nhien, khi ng cdng tang cao, vugt qua gidi han an loan se kim ham tdng tmdng, thdng qua bdn kenh tmyen ddn chinh: i) ng cdng lam gidm lich luy vdn tu nhdn, ddn den giam ddu tu tu nhan; ii) ng cdng lara gidm tiei kiera qudc gia do ldm gidm sut ddu tu lu nhdn vd xudt khdu rdng cua qudc gia do; iii) ng cdng khien lai sudt tdng, ldm chi phi
"•" T r i r d r g Oai hpc Kinh te quoc dan
ddu tu tdng, ddn tdi ldng gia thanh va gid ban san phdm, tao dp luc len lam phat; va iv) ng cdng ihudng di kera vdi viec gia tdng cdc khodn ihue/phi, ldm meo md cdc hoai dpng kinh te, gay ldn that phuc lgi xa hpi. Ben canh dd, cac qudc gia di vay phdi chiu sftc ep tft phia chu ng va cac Id chftc ldi chinh qudc te, Nhftng ldc ddng nay deu gay ra dnh hudng tieu cyc den tdng trudng kinh Id.
Nhu vdy, ng cdng Id mpt trong nhiing nhdn Id tao ra dpng lyc tdng Irudng kinh le cho mpt qudc gia, tuy nhien, khi ng cdng tang cao thi nd cd the dugc xera nhu mdt radi nguy tidm dn vdi nin kinh l l qudc gia do, Vi le dd, ngudng ng an todn va mdi quan he gifta ng cdng vdi tang tmdng kinh te da dugc nhieu nhd khoa hgc trong va ngoai nudc quan tam nghien cftu.
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Higu ung ng cdng vdi tang trudng kinh td. Phgm Thfe Anh - Nguydn Hdng Nggc Cy thi, nhieu nghidn cftu Ihyc nghiem cho
thay, d mftc thap, ng cdng khdng de dga, tham chi cdn ldc dpng tich cue tdi tdng Irudng kinh te. Tuy nhidn, khi dd vugt qua mpt ngudng nhat dinh, vide liip luc gia ldng quy md ng cdng se kira hdm tie dp tang trudng kinh te. Nhin chung, cdc ket qud nghien cftu dinh lugng cho ngudng ng ndy rdl khdc nhau ddi vdi cac mau nghien cftu khdc nhau. Vdi mau nghien cftu cd quy md ldn bao gdm ca cdc qudc gia phdt Iridn vd dang phdt Iridn, nguong ng cdng chung dugc udc lugng la 90% GDP (Reinhart vd Rogoff, 2010), hay 77% GDP (Caner vd cpng su, 2010).
Cdn xel rieng vdi cac nudc dang phat trien, ngudng ng dugc udc lugng Id 64% GDP (Caner va cpng su, 2010); frong khi do, theo Pham ThI Anh va cpng sy (2014), con sd ndy dao ddng trong khodng 12 - 57% GDP. Ben canh dd, cdc nghien cuu cho cac khu vuc cy Ihl cho kit qua ngudng ng la 85% GDP ddi vdi cac nudc thupc nhom OECD (Cecchetti vd cpng sy, 2011), va 55 - 56% GDP ddi vdi cac nudc thupc khu vye Caribe (Greenidge va cdng sy, 2012).
Trong thdi gian qua, cd Ihl gidi dd chftng kien sy lao ddc ve kinh te cua mpt sd qudc gia, dien hinh Id Hy Lap, md nguyen nhdn chinh la do khung hodng ng cdng. Ty le ng edng/GDP cao ludn Id mpt trong nhiing nguy co de dga tinh ben vung cua tdng trudng kinh ll. Cdu hdi ve viec ly le ng cdng nhu thi nao la hgp ly ludn gianh dugc sy quan Idra dang kl cua cdc nhd hoach dinh chinh sdch cung nhu gidi hgc thudt d cdc qudc gia trdn the gidi.
Thdi gian gan day, vdn de ng cdng cua Viet Nara cung dang Ird thanh rapt trong sd nhftng van de ndng hdi nhat trdn cdc didn dan kinh tl.
Quy rad ng cdng cua Viet Nam hien dang cd xu hudng gia tdng ngdy cang nhanh, ddc biet la lft sau cupe khung hoang kinh ll ihl gidi nam 2008. Trong khi dd, nin kinh tl van dang d trong giai doan tang tmdng chdm. Cy thi, theo thdng ke cua Bp Tai chinh, chi trong vdng 5 ndm (tft ndm 2008 din ndm 2013, ty le ng
edng/GDP cua nudc la da tang khoang 18 dilm phdn trdm, tu 36,2% len din 54,2%. Tdi cudi nam 2014, ng cdng udc linh da ldn tdi 60,3%
GDP, va dy bao se dat 64,0% vao nam 2015, tien rdl sal ldi muc Iran 65% ma Qudc hpi ddt ra. Dd la chua ke ldi each hach toan ng cdng cua Viet Nam hien nay cdn chua phu hgp vdi thdng Id quoc te. Neu linh cd nhihig khoan ng khdng cd trong quy dinh phdp luat nhung Ihyc te Chinh phii van dang chiu trdch nhidm chi trd thi ng cdng thuc te cd the da vugt rdt xa ngudng an toan (65%) khuyen cdo bdi cdc Id chuc qudc te va Qudc hpi.
Cd the thdy, ng cdng gia ldng la mpt frong nhiing nguyen nhdn de dga tinh ben viing cua tdng tmdng kinh td. Tuy nhien, ty le ng edng/GDP lien tyc gia tang cd le van chua du dd canh bao cac nha chuc trach, khi ngudi dan ludn dugc trdn an rang "ng cdng van trong gidi han". Ddng chu y la ndm 2013, ngudng ng an loan cua Viel Nam da dugc nang tft mftc 60%
GDP len tdi 65% GDP ma khdng dugc giai trinh thda ddng. Nhu vay, mftc ng cdng nhu the ndo la an toan dang la mpt cdu hdi Idn, thu hut sy quan tdm cua gidi chuyen mdn va du ludn.
Do vdy, Irong nghien cftu nay, chftng ldi cd gang danh gid anh hudng cua ng cdng va xac dinh hieu ftng ngudng cua ng cdng tdi tang Irudng kinh te bang phuong phap phdn tich md hinh hdi quy du lieu mdng, gdm 73 qudc gia mdi ndi vd dang phat tridn Iren toan thi gidi trong giai doan 2001 - 2013. Tu dd, dl xuat ngudng ng cdng tdi uu ddi vdi tdng imdng kinh te d Viet Nam. Ddng thdi, nghien cftu cung phdn tich cac chinh sdch quan ly ng lai rapt sd qudc gia cd nhieu net tuong ddng va dua ra mpt sd ggi y khuyin nghi chinh sach cho Viet Nam.
2. Phuffng phap nghien cuu va du lieu 2.1, Xdy difng mo hinh
De ddnh gia anh hudng cua ng cdng vd xdc dinh hieu ftng ngudng cua ng cdng tdi tang tmdng kinh tl, tuong ly nhu Hansen (1996, 2000), chung ldi xdy dyng md hinh dft lieu mdng nhu sau:
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_Phgm Thd Anh - Nguyin Hdng Nggc Hieu dng no cdng vdi tang trudng kinh td,.
yu = y i ( l - lFt')(.Du - D*) + y2lFt'(Du - D*) +TT-\-V, + exu + e,,
^p- ^nniuDa>D\ . ^ ^
•' [OniuDa<D'' Trong dd, y^^ la tdng tmdng GDP thyc t l ; Djt la ty le ng edng/GDP, vd D* Id ngudng ng cdng ma chung ta dang cdn xac dinh; I la biln gia dugc gan gia tri bdng 1 nlu ty Id ng cdng cua qudc gia i tai thdi dilm t ldn hon D*, va bdng 0 frong cac Imdng hgp khac; T vd Vj bilu thi hieu ftng cd dinh theo thdi gian vd hieu ftng cd dinh theo khdng gian khdng quan sat dugc; vd X,^ la vec-lo cac bien sd kiem soat cd anh hudng din ldng Imdng kinh te.
Md hinh (*) cho phep udc lugng hieu ftng ngudng cua ng cdng (Threshold Effect) tdi tang tmdng kinh te. Khi ng cdng nam dudi muc nguong thi YiSd dugc udc lugng, va khi ng cdng ldn hcm ngudng Ihi y2 se dugc udc lugng.
Neu tdn lai dnh hudng nguong cua ng cdng ddi vdi tdng Imdng kinh Id thi YI i^i^dc ky vgng duong va y2 dugc ky vgng dm.
Md hinh (*) cung cho phep xem xel dnh hudng cua cdc bien sd kinh td vT md lai cdc ngudng ng cdng xdc dinh. Cdc bien sd then chdt quyel dinh tang trudng kinh Id dugc chiing tdi lua chgn de dua vao md hinh bao gdm: ¥)o md cua nen kinh te (thuong mai), ty le lam phat, long dau tu vd chi lieu chinh phii. Trong do, cac bidn sd dai dien cho chi tidu chinh phu va mdi tmdng lam phdt dugc ky vgng mang ddu dm;
cdc bien sd dai dien cho dau tu vd thuong mai cua nen kinh te dugc ky vgng mang dau duong.
Ngodi ra, luong ty nhu Caner va cdng sy (2010), de kiem soat vdn de bd sdt biln vd quan he nhdn qua ngugc, bien GDP binh quan ddu ngudi dugc dua them vdo md hinh udc lugng frong tap cac biln sd kidm sodt.
d ddy, cdc md hinh hieu ftng cd dinh mpt chilu se dugc thyc hien. Chiing tdi da tiln hanh so sanh va lua chgn giua cac md hinh sd lieu hon hgp (POLS), md hinh hieu ftng cd dinh (Fixed Effect, FE) vd md hinh hieu ftng ngdu
t = l, . . . , r (*) nhidn (Random Effect, RE) thdng qua cdc kilm dinh dang ham va kiem dinh sau udc lugng, vi du nhu kiem dinh Hausman de lua chgn gifta FE va RE, vd ket qua cho thdy md hinh FE rdt phu hgp vdi ca sd du Hdu cua nghien cftu. Mat khac, ngudng ng cdng ldi uu la khdng quan sal dugc, do vdy, tuong ly nhu Pham ThI Anh vd cdng su (2014), chung tdi bdt ddu vdi mftc ngudng 10% vd sau dd lang ddn them 1 % cho tdi mftc ngudng 120% ddi vdi mau gdm tdt cd cac qudc gia mdi ndi va dang phdi Iridn trdn the gidi. Cdc gid Iri nguong D* theo do nhan cac gia tri frong khoang {10%, 11%, ..., 120%}.
Ben canh dd, vdi mau nhd hon chi bao gdm cdc qudc gia cd thu nhdp Irung binh thdp, cac gia Iri ngudng D* dugc udc lugng se nhan gia tri trong khodng '{12%, 13%, ..., 90%}. Hai khoang ndy bao phu tdi hon 90% phan phdi cua hai mdu tuong ftng.
2,2. Dii lieu vd bien
De phye vu cho muc dich phan tfch, du lieu mdng ve ng cdng cua cdc qudc gia mdi ndi va dang phai trien tren the gidi trong vdng 13 nam qua (2001 - 2013) se dugc thill lap. Dft lieu chu yeu dugc trich xual lft ca sd dft lieu ciia Quy Tien Id Qudc te (IMF), va mpt vdi bien sd khac tft nguon cua Ngdn hdng The gidi (WB). Ban ddu, tat ca cac qudc gia mdi ndi va dang phat trien theo phdn loai cua IMF dugc lya chgn.
Tuy nhien, mpt sd qudc gia bi loai khdi mdu nghien cftu do ban che ve mat du lieu, hodc do dac diem ldng trudng va ng cdng khdng raang tfnh dai dien, phuang sai bien ddng qua manh, ndra ngoai phan phdi radu.
Cudi cung, radu ldn dugc xdy dyng bao gdra 868 quan sat, tuong ftng vdi 73 qudc gia mdi ndi va dang phat trien tren the gidi irong giai doan 2001 - 2012. Ben canh dd, tft co sd dft lieu mdng thu dugc, chung ldi da tien hanh Igc ra 19
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Hieu dng n o cdng vdi tang t r u d n g kinh td,. Pham Thd Anh - N g u y i n Hdng Nggc qudc gia thupc nhdm cd ihu nhap trung binh
thap theo phdn loai cua Ngan hang The gidi (WB, 2013) va xay dyng mau nhd gdra 243 quan sal vdi giai doan ddi hcm, tft ndm 2001 den 2013, de thu dugc mpt raau dong deu hon vdi nhieu dac diem lucmg ddng hon vdi Viet Nam, nham phuc vy tdt nhat cho muc lieu de xuat nguong ng tdi uu cho tang trudng kinh le tai Viel Nam.
Cac bien sd dugc su dyng trong md hinh dugc trfeh xuat lu ca sd dft lieu cua IMF gdm:
Tdng tmdng GDP thuc, ty Id lam phdt binh quan nam, chi lieu chinh phu tfnh Iheo phdn tram GDP, ty le dau lu tinh theo phdn tram GDP, va tdng ng cdng tinh theo phan fram GDP. Dft lieu ve GDP binh quan ddu ngudi vd xual nhap khau (dp md thuang mai linh bang long xudt khau va nhdp khdu tren GDP) dugc khai thac tft ca sd du lieu cua WB.
3. Ket qua va thao luan
Kit qua udc lugng phuang Irinh (*) cho hai mdu du lieu mdng dugc minh hga trong Hinh 1 va Hinh 2.
Ddi vdi radu ldn gdm 73 qudc gia mdi ndi vd dang phdi friln trong giai doan 2001 - 2012, kit qud udc lugng cho Ihdy sy tdn lai ngudng ng cdng chung ddi vdi ldng tmdng kinh t l la tuong
ddi khdng ro rang, dao dpng frong khoang tft 14% din 60% GDP. Cu thi, trong dai ngudng ng cdng lft 10 - 120% GDP, gia fri cua he sd udc lugng dai dien cho lac dpng bien ciia ng cdng den ldng Imdng kinh t l (y^) la giam ddn.
He sd Yi mang ddu duong khi ngudng ng cdng d dudi 35% GDP, tuy nhien nd chi co y nghTa thdng ke d cdc mftc y nghTa tmyln thing khi ngudng ng cdng nhd hon 14% GDP, Dieu nay cho thdy, tai cac ngudng ng cdng tft 14 - 35%
GDP, tdc dpng cua ng cdng ddi vdi ldng Irudng kinh te d cac qudc gia va qua cac thdi ky la tuong ddi khac nhau. Sau khi ng cdng vugl ngudng 35% GDP, tdc dpng bien cua ng cdng den ldng tmdng chuyen tft trang thai tfch cyc sang lieu cyc. Tdc dpng lieu cue tang dan Iheo sy gia tang cua cdc raftc ng cdng. Dieu nay ham y, neu ly le ng cdng liep lyc gia ldng se can frd tdng tmdng kinh te. Tuy nhien, ldc ddng lieu cyc nay cua ng cdng ddi vdi tang trudng kinh le chi bdt ddu cd y nghTa Ihdng ke d raftc y nghTa 10% khi quy md ng cdng vugt nguang 56%
GDP, va bat dau cd y nghTa thdng ke d mftc y nghTa 5% khi no cdng vugt qua ngudng 61%
GDP, Dieu nay cd nghTa la, sau ngudng 61%
GDP, anh hudng tieu cue cua sy gia ldng ng cdng da Ihyc su rd rang, vd ldng tmdng kinh t l se gidm ngay cang manh (xem Hinh I).
Hinh 1: Tac dgng cua n g cong den tang t r u d n g 6" 73 quoc gia mdi ndi va dang phat triin giai doan 2001 - 2012
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Nguon: Tinh todn cua cdc tdc gid.
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.^hgm Thd Anh - Nguyin Hdng Nggc Hieu dng ng cdng vdi tang trudng kinh te...
Ket qua nay ho trg cho gia thuydl ve vide tdn tai ngudng ng cdng tdi uu nhu ghi nhan bdi Reinhart va Rogoff (2010), Caner vd cpng sy (2010) vd Greenidge va cpng sy (2012).
Mat khac, kit qua nay hara y ngudng ng cdng ma nhdm qudc gia nay phai ddi mdi la thdp hon nhieu so vdi ket qua thu dugc tft Reinhart va Rogoff (2010) - 90%) GDP va Caner va cpng sy (2010) - 77% GDP khi su dung mau nghien cftu chung d ca cdc nudc phdt trien va dang phat tridn, nhung lai khd tuong ddng vdi Greenidge va cpng sy (2012) - 56% GDP khi nghien cftu 12 qudc gia vung Caribe giai doan
1980-2010.
Mat khdc, ddi vdi mau bao gdm 243 quan sat cua 19 qudc gia thupc nhdm co ihu nhap tmng binh thdp trong giai doan 2001 - 2013, he sd udc lugng y-y dai didn cho tac ddng bien cua ng cdng ddn tdng Irudng kinh te lai ludn nhan gia tri am ddi vdi loan bp dai ngudng ng cdng 12 - 90%. Tuy nhien, tac dpng tieu cyc ndy chi bdt dau cd y nghTa thdng kd d muc y nghTa 5% khi ng cdng vugt mftc 53% GDP (xem Htnh 2).
Nhu vay, kdt qua udc lugng cho thdy, ddi vdi cdc qudc gia Ihupc nhdm cd thu nhap trung binh ihdp bao gdm cd Viet Nam, sy gia tdng cua ng cdng ldm gidm tang trudng kinh td rd rdng nhat khi ly le ng edng/GDP vugl mftc 53%.
Hinh 2: Tac ddng cua ng cong den tang trudng d 19 quoc gia thupc nhom thu nhdp trung binh thap giai doan 2001 - 2013
Cac ngi/&ng no cong (diem %)
Anhhu'crngtieuci;c:Hes6 coy nghTa thong ke 6 miJc V nghta 5%
Ngudn: Tinh lodn cita cde tdc gid.
Bdng chftng thuc nghiera thu dugc ndy cd y nghTa chinh sach dac biet quan trgng irong bdi cdnh Viet Nam hien nay, khi ty Id ng edng/GDP cua chung ta dang ldng nhanh vd tiln ddn din mftc trdn 65% cho phep bcri Qudc hdi.
D I danh gid tinh chinh xdc vd tin cdy cua ket qud udc lugng tren, chung tdi da lien hdnh thyc hien rapt sd kilm dinh, nhu kiem dinh hien tugng da cpng tuyen (bdng each xera xet he sd tuong quan cap gifta cdc biln giai thich trong NhOng vin di KINH T^ VA CHJNH TRj THt GIOI So 10(234) 2015-
Hieu ftng no cdng vdi tang trudng kinh td . Pham The Anh - Nguyin Hdng Nggc
md hinh), kiera dinh hien tugng tu tuong quan (bang kiera dinh Durbin - Watson),... Ket qua thu dugc cho Ihay md hinh khdng mdc phai cdc van de ndy. Ben canh do, kdt qua udc lugng cy the vdi hai raau dft lieu raang cho thay hdu nhu tat cd cdc he sd udc lugng cua cdc bien trong md hinh deu cd y nghta thdng ke, va dau cua cac he sd nay hoan todn phft hgp vdi du bao cua cac ly Ihuyel kinh te chudn (he sd cua cac bien chi tieu chinh phu va ty le lam phat ludn mang ddu dm, cdn he sd cua cac bien ddu tu va thuong mai ludn raang dau duong, phan anh chieu hudng tac dpng cua cdc bidn ndy tdi tdng tmdng kinh te). Hon nfta, gid Iri cua cdc he sd R vd R^ hieu chinh vdi hai mdu deu tuong ddi cao. Tdt cd nhiing phan tich trdn ddy da cho la thay mftc dp phu hgp va dang tin cay cao cfta md hinh,
Trdn co sd phdn tich mdi quan he gifta ng cdng vdi tdng irudng kinh te va dac biel la lft kel qua udc lugng md hinh xdc dinh hieu ftng ngudng cfta ng cdng d tren, chung ldi cho rdng ngudng ng cdng tdi uu cho tdng trudng kinh te d Viet Nam cd the ndm Irong khoang lft 53 - 6 1 % GDP. Khi vugt qua 6 1 % GDP thi ng cdng nhidu khd ndng se cd tac dpng tieu cue tdi tang Irudng kinh te. Do dd, tmdc mdt, chung ta cdn thyc hien nhung giai phap nhdm khdng chl ty le ng edng/GDP d dudi mftc trdn 65% cho phep hien nay bdi Qudc hdi. Trong trung va dai han, ty le nay can dan dugc cdt gidm nhdra vfta ddm bdo an ninh tai chfnh vfta tdi uu hda dugc vai trd cua ng cdng ddi vdi tdng trudng kinh le,
4. Ket luan va mpt sd khuyen nghi chinh sach quan ly ng cong d Viet Nam
Trong qud khft, dd cd nhieu qudc gia tuong ddng vdi Viet Nam ma d dd khi ng cdng tang ldn qud cao da tdc dpng tieu cue, kira ham tdc dp tdng Irudng kinh Id. Cd thi k l din cac qudc gia nay bao gdm Philippines, Indonesia, An Do
va Thdi Lan irong giai doan 2001 - 2013. Viec thara khdo thyc lien d cdc qudc gia nay nhdra rut ra nhung bai hgc tuong ty v l qudn ly ng cdng cho Viet Nam la dieu hit sue can thidt.
Thuc te cho thdy, de cai ihien tinh hinh ng cdng va dam bdo tdc dp tang trudng kinh te, mdi qudc gia nay ddu da lua chgn cho minh nhimg hudng di ridng, phii hgp vdi bdi canh mdi qudc gia, va diu da dat dugc nhftng thanh tyu dang kd. Nhin chung, cd the chia cac chfnh sdch nay thdnh cac nhdm chinh nhu sau:
Ddu lien, de gia tdng kha nang chi tra ddng thdi gidm sy Id Ihupc vdo vide vay ng, cdc qudc gia Irdn deu hudng ddn myc tieu tdng tmdng kinh Id cao vd bdn viing vdi nhieu bien phap khdc nhau nhu thu hut ddu tu nudc ngoai, khuyen khich chi tidu cfta khu vye ddn cu va tu nhan, ihuc ddy khu vye san xuat, chuyen djch CO cau kinh te theo hudng hien dai, phdt trien ngudn nhdn luc va lap trung dau tu vao mpt sd ngdnh mui nhgn de phdt Irien...
Ddi vdi tham hut ngdn sach, cdc qudc gia tren da dua ra nhieu chinh sach de cdt giam Ihdra hyt xudng muc thap nhat nhdm lam giam quy md ng cdng. Mdt sd qudc gia nhu An Dp da ban hdnh bp ludt ridng, nhu Dao ludt ve trdch nhiem tai khda vd qudn ly ngdn sdch FRBMA (2003) de that chat ky lual ldi khda nhdm han che Ihdm hyt ngdn sach. Ben canh dd, bdng each cai each he thdng thue nhu tang co sd tinh thue (Thdi Lan, An Dp) va tdng thue danh vdo mdt sd mat hang (Philippines, Thai Lan, An Qg), tinh trang tham hyt ngan sach cua hg da ddu dugc cai thien.
Hon nfta, do deu phu thupc nhidu vdo ng nudc ngoai nen cung vdi viec dan cat gidm ty trgng ng nudc ngodi trong tdng ng cdng, cd bdn qudc gia trdn da no lyc dn dinh ty gia bang nhilu bien phdp, chang han nhu ldng dy tru ngoai hdi qudc gia (Philippines), ddng thdi duy tri lai sudt cua cdc khodn ng nay d mftc Ihdp
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£hgrn Thd Anh - Nguydn Hdng Nggc Higu ung ng cdng vol tang trudng kinh te . nham gidm nhiing rui ro lidm dn ddi vdi quy mo
ng cdng.
Ngoai ra, d l dn dinh tinh hinh ng cdng trong nudc, Chinh phu Thai Lan da ban hanh Lugt Qudn ly ng cong vao nam 2005 vd thanh lap Uy ban Chinh sdch vd qudn ly ng cong nhdm giam sal, bdo cdo va quylt dinh nhung van de he frgng ve quan ly ng cdng.
Cdc bien phap trdn dd cho thdy nhftng tdc dpng tich cue den tinh hinh ng cdng lai cd bdn qudc gia. Philippines dd thdnh cdng trong viec cdt giam ng cdng cua minh tft ba con sd xudng cdn 39,1%» GDP vao 2013; ng cdng cua Indonessia cung lien tyc gidm tft gan 80% nam 2001 xudng chi cdn 2 6 , 1 1 % GDP sau 13 nam; no cdng tai Thdi Lan ludn dugc duy tri d raftc vua phai va cd xu hudng gidm; va An Dp cung dang ddn cai thien tinh hinh ng cdng cua minh.
Vi vdy, dua tren thyc trang cua Viet Nam va kinh nghiem quan ly tft bdn qudc gia da phdn lich d tren, chftng tdi dua ra rapt sd gidi phdp sau ddy cho Viet Nara, nhdra hudng tdi cdt gidm va duy tri tinh ben viing cua ng cdng, dong thdi vfta ddm bao thuc day tang tmdng kinh te.
Thir nhdt, hgch todn ng cong theo chudn quoc ti: Hien nay, each tinh lodn ng cdng cua Viet Nam vdn chua thdng nhdt vdi cdch tfnh phd biln trdn the gidi, ddc biet Id cdc khodn ng cua khdi doanh nghiep nha nudc (DNNN) cd nguy CO trd thanh ng cdng chua dugc linh frong thdnh phdn cua ng cdng. Dieu nay khiln cac chinh sach ban hdnh lidn quan den ng cdng trd ndn xa rdi thyc te vd mftc dp nghidm trgng cua ng cdng cung khdng dugq xem xel mpt each lodn dien. Do dd, vide dieu chinh cdch tinh loan ng cdng Id rdt cdn ihiet.
Thd hai, ihdnh lap ca quan qudn ly ng cong:
jChdc vdi nhilu qudc gia Irong khu vye vd tren thi gidi, cho den nay Viet Nam van chua cd
mpt CO quan ndo gidm sdl vd chiu trach nhiem ve ng cdng rapt cdch dpc lap. Do vdy, viec thanh lap rapt co quan chuyen Irdch quan ly ng cdng vdi nhihig nhidm vy chu yeu nhu: Lap ke hoach vay ng va trd ng hdng ndm; theo doi vd bdo cao tinh hinh ng cdng dinh ky; lap ke hoach dy phdng dd phdn ftng kip thdi Irong tmdng hgp phai sinh cac rui ro; vd tham muu cho cdc nha hoach dinh ve cdc chinh sdch quan ly ng cdng,... la rat cdn thidt.
Thit ba, ban hanh hi thong cdc chi lieu nhdm ddnh gid linh ben viing cua ng cong: He thdng nay can dugc thiel lap vdi ddy du cdc chi tieu danh gia kha ndng thanh todn va kha ndng thanh khoan cua ng cdng (nhu ng edng/GDP, ng cdng nudc ngoai/GDP, ng cdng/thu ngan sdch, hay nghia vu ng/dy tru ngoai hdi..,). Ben canh dd, mdt khi he thdng chi tieu nay dugc dat ra thi vide thyc thi chung can dugc giam sdl mpt each chat che de dam bdo tinh tudn thft.
Thir lu, cat gidm chi lieu cong: Chung la cdn xem xet co cau cac khoan chi tieu cdng hien nay vd Ihyc hidn cdt giam cdc khodn chi khdng can thiel vd kera hieu qua, Ben canh dd, cdc ITnh vye hay du dn ddu tu nao nha nudc khdng nhdt thilt phdi ihyc hien thi ndn de khu vye tu nhan tham gia d l giam dp luc len ngdn sach nha nudc (NSNN).
Thir ndm, qudn ly ng cua khoi DNNN, cdt gidm so lugng cdc DNNN: Rui ro tft ng cua khoi DNNN dang de dga nghiem trgng tdi an todn ng cdng cua Viet Nam. Vi vdy, cdn yeu cdu dai dien cac DNNN gidi trinh cac khoan ng nay, ddng thdi cdn cd nhiing bien phdp qudn ly, su dyng cac khoan vay ng cd hieu qua, Bdn canh do, cd phdn hda cac DNNN cung la mpi yeu cdu cdp bach nhdm tien tdi minh bach Ihdng tin vd giam sy le thupc ve ldi chinh cua cdc doanh nghiep nay vdo NSNN.
Thic sdu, cdi cdch he thong ihue. Can ban hanh cac chfnh sach thue dam bao tinh cdng
NhOng vin di KINH Tt VA CHINH TR) THt GIOI So 10(234) 2015
Hidu dng ng cdng vdi tang trudng kinh te,.. Pham Thfe Anh - Nguyin Hdng Ngoc bang vd trdnh hien tugng chdng cheo; xay dyng ihue; dam bao an sinh xa hpi cho nhihig ngudi mftc thue hgp iy; xay dung he thdng thu thue dd bi ldn thuong; kich thich san xudt trong nudc hieu qua nhdm han che tdi da hien tugng trdn phdt trien va khuyen khich tilt kiem*
Tai lieu tham khao:
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3. Greenidge, K., R. Craigwell, C. Thomas va L. Drakes (2012): Threshold Effects of Sovereign Debt: Evidence from the Caribbean, IMF Working Paper, No. WP/12/157.
4. Hansen, B. E (2000): 'Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation, Economefrica, sd 68, pp. 575-603.
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- NhOng vin di KINH Tt VA CHINH TR! THt GIOI So 10(234) 2015