KINH TE VI WIO
Hieu Qng ngaong quy mo von ddu tu true tiep nude ngoai trong mo hinh tang trudng kinh te
Viet Nam
TO EIM NGOC N G U Y E N QUYNH T H d
hghUn cihi svt dung ca sd dS lieu theo nam cua 50 tinh/thdtnh pkotgi Viit Nam trong _ V khodng thdi gian til 2006 - 2015 khdm phd sU ton tai cua gid tri ngUdng quy mo ddu iu trUc ti^p nUdc ngo&i trong md hinh tang tn^ng kinh l^hang Udc lUOng mo hinh tU h6i quy ngUdn^.
Tft k h o a : v6n t^u tit trite tiip ni^ ngodi, hieu vlng ngi^ng, tang tnidng kinh t^, md hinh tU hSi quy ngi/dng (TAR), ngi^ng quy md FDI.
a
Viet Nam, ke tii k h i Doi m.6i, Chinh p h u da li§n t u c mS r6ng vk dSy m a n h t h u htit v^n M u tii true ti^p nUdc ngoai de kich thich n e n k i n h te. Nhci v|iy, v6n FDI t§ng n h a n h va m^nh, tii xuS^t'phat d i l m gSn nhtf kh5ng c6 (nam 1986), den nay ViSt N a m da t h u htit dildc 20.069 64 a n v6i tdng so v6n dang k^ x§p xi 281 t y U S D V Tuy nhi§n, FDI cung l a m nay sinh khong ft nhOng van d^tigu CTlc nhii 6 n h i l m m6i triiclng, ISh a t doanh nghiep trong niidc, chuyen giao c6ng ngh$ lac hiiu, mift cSn b i n g xa h6i... Trong do, tac d5ng cua FDI d^n tinh t r a n g xusCt n h a p k h ^ u cua Vi§t Nam thi hi§n ro r§t hi§u liHg ngUSng t6i t a n g trUcIng giai doan 10 nain trd lai dSy.
1. N g i t d u g q u y m o FDI
Trong c&c nghign cutu v^ t a n g tniSng kinh te, yen t6'"ngtf3ng" thu6ng diidc nhac d 6 i d l n6i ve gi4 t r i cua m6t h a y nhieu bien giai thich ma vildt qua gia t r i do tac d6ng cua cac bi€h giai thich len t i n g trudng se dao chi^u hoac t h a y d^i mlic d6 tac dong.
Trong qu& t r i n h nghidn cflu, tac gia n h ^ n thiiy k h a i ni§m ngUSng c6 t h e difdc tiep c$n theo hv(6ng rong hdn. Cu thi: i/ c6 t h e c6 nhieu bien ngiiSng khac n h a u trong m6t m6 Iunh.Trong p h a m vi nghien ciiu nay, tac gia se sxi dung biSh quy mo FDI (ty 1$ % t r e n GDP) di vLdc lildng gia tri ngu3ng; ii/v6i m§i
bi^n ngUSng, c6 th^ c6 nhi^u hdn m6t gia t r i ngiidng; iii/ phSn bi§t k h a i ni§m "bi^n xkc dinh ngK3ng"va "bi^n c6 h $ sS" t h a y d^i t r o r ^ viing ngiJSng"; iv/ q u a n ni$m v^'tac dong t i e u eOc" l%n t a n g tntSng. Gia t r i ngUSng dudc x ^ dinb khong nhKt t h i e t k h i ^ cho t^c d6ng gifla cac n h § n t6^ trong mo h i n h dao chi^u m ^ CO t h ^ chi l a m t h a y doid6 dSc cua md hinh.
N h u vky, gia t r i ngilSng quy mo FDI co t h § chi la gia t r i m a t a i do miic d6 a n h huffing cua cac n h a n tfi* d6i vdi t a i ^ tnfdng k i n h t ^ b i slit giam chut khdng nhlCt thiet p h a i la gia t r i l a m hudng t^c d3ng cua cac nhgn t6 len t a n g taifdngdao chi^u. ^
TrSn cd s6 thtfa k ^ each tiep can truyi:&
thf^i^ cua cac nghign cutu kinh ^ e n cung nhir nhiing khia canh ph^n tich 5 tr@n, t r o n g p h a m nghien ciiu nay, tac gia tiep c^n k h a i niem ngtfOng tii goc do quy m6 v6u FDI, cu th^ la: ngifSng quy m6 FDI l a gia tri vi quy mo FDI (dUdc t i n h xac dinh b a n g t y 16 p h l n t r a m FDI tr§n GDP) m ^ khi vifdt qua gia t r i do, tac dong cua bifo. c6 h§ s6 t h a y doi theo vung ngifdng Ign t a n g trudng k i n h tM se t h a y doi mtic do tac dong hoacdao chilu.
T6 Kim Ngoc, PGS.TS.; Nguyin Quynh Thtf, Hoc vien Ngdn hang.
1. Tmh luy kef cac dii 6n con higa luc d&i ngiy 31-12- 2015.
Nghiin cAi Kinh t^sff 11 (462)-Th^ 11^016
Hifiu i^ng ngirSng quy md v(fn ...
2.,M6 h i n h , l y t h u y e t /^ _j Nghi§n ctiu n a y tridn k h a i m6 .hiirih 1^
t h u y l t ' cua, Demekas vk cong ST1(2005), Raheem va c6ng sU Oyinlola (2013), Girma (2005). Theo do, t a n g tnlfing k i n h t e chiu a n h hildug cua mot loat cac n h a n to v^ v6h, ngu6n lao dong, th^ ch^ xa hoi, t r i n h d6 cSng nghe... Do do, t a c6 phUdng t r i n h sau:
growthit = Oo + OiX + Ui + Eit (1) Trong do:
• Growth la t6c d6 t a n g trUdng k i n h t e theo thcii gian t;
• X la vector cua cdc bi^n giai thich da ditdc kiem chiing c6 f nglua trong cac nghi§n eiiu tien phong n h u v6h d i u tif c6ng, von ddu t u t u nhan, von d i u t u trUc tigp mldc ngoai, chi s^ ddnh gid nSng lilc quan ly n h a nU6c, lUc lUdng lao d6Hg, ty le chi ti§u chinh p h u so v6i GDP, d6 m6 thudng mai. Cac bi^n n a y se dUdc Bit dung trong mo h i n h sau khi kiem
<^nh cho th^y khfing c6 hiSn tUdng da e6ng tuyd'n.
• Ui t h e hidn hieu uing dac t h u cua quoc gia va dUdc gia dinh la khdng t h a y doi theo thcii gian, cu th^ n h u v a n hoa qu6c gia, vi tri dialy'...
• % la sai so'
Vi nghien ctiu mu^n khao s a t t a n g t r u i n g Icinh t§' trong d ^ h a n (growth*), phUdng t r i n h t a n g trudn^ dai h a n c6 d^ng sau:
growth*it = Oo + a i X + Ui + Eit (2) -I TrUdc h^t, nghi§n ciiu xac (finh t a n g truSng trong ngan h ^ n (growth), sau d6 mCtc d6 t h a y d^i cua growth trong dai h a n se dUdc x^c dinh dUa t r e n h$ scT dieu chinh S:
growtht- growtlvi = 6 (growtht*- growth^i) (3)
Gia tri cua h§ so dieu chinh 5 dUdc ky vong chay trong khoang tit 0 den 1. Vigt lai phUdng t r i n h (3), t a c6:
growtht= 8 growtht* + ( 1 - 5) g r o w t h ^ (4) Ti^p theo, t h a y phUdng t r i n h (2) vao (4),
growthii= ,S { Oo + Oi X + U£. +, SiJ + ( 1 - S) growtht.1 "(5)
Vigt l a i phUdng t r i n h (5) t h u dUdc:
growthit= Soo + SttiX + ( 1 - S) growtht.i+ U;
+ Eit(6)
N h u v^y, tac- dong cua c^c bi^n s ^ vi m0 tdi t a n g trufing dUdc t h i hi§n t h d n g q u a h$ sfi"
SoTj t r o n g n g a n h a n , va Oj t r o n g d a i h a n . V 3 . M o h i n h t h r f c n g h i e m v a phifcfng
p h a p k i ^ m d i n h
M6 h i n h 1^ t h u y ^ t dUa r a c§ii t n i c tac dfing cua m a t r ^ n cac bi^n so vi m6 l§n t a n g trUdng k i n h t ^ nhiftig m6 h i n h k h o n g b6c t a c h de thSy dUdc moi q u a n h$ t h a y d6i vdi nhi^ng gia t r i quy mo FDI k h a c n h a u dUdc t h u hiit vko mot nin k i n h t^'. Do v|iy, c ^ phai CO m6 h i n h phi t u y l h tfnh. Trong nghien ctiu nay, tac gia ti^p c|ln m6 h i n h ngu6ng de ki^m dinh sU t6n t a i cua h i ^ u ting nguQng va u5c lUdng sU t h a y dSi tac dong cua cac biSn giai thich trong hi$u ting ngU9ng.
D u a vao n g h i e n cptu cua H a n s e n (1996, 1999, 2000), W a n g (2015), phUdng t r i n h (6) dUdc chuyen h o a t h a n h m 5 h i n h t d h6i quy ngU6ng (TAR) nhU sau:
growthit= {pio+PiiX + pi2 growtht.i}
d[FDIit<Y]
+ { P20+P21X + P22 growth,_i}d[FDIit>Y3 + u;
+ eit (7).
D l x4c dinh gia triy, C h a n (1993) va H a n s e n (1997) gdi f sit d u n g U6c lUdng hinh phUdng nho n h ^ t . T h a y vi t i m y trong toan bd t a p con cua q^t, 7 dUdc gia t h i e t la hi gi6i h a n trong m6t t a p hdp bi c h a n (y, y ), la cac di^m vi p h a n cua q^. Theo do, y l a gia t r i l a m cho SiC'^ la nho nha^t, dUdc dinh n g h i a nhU sau:
y = a g r m m Si(y)(8)
f(y, y)
Neil ylk biet trildc t h i mo h i n h k h 6 n g c6 ^ k h a c so vdi cac mo h i n h t u y ^ n t i n h t h o n g t h u c d ^ . NhUng n ^ u -^a chUa bi^t t h i se xn§Lt hi€n v ^ n d^ ve t h a m s^ khi^n cho u6c lu^ng y p h a n phoi kh6ng chu^n.
NghlinoiSumht^s&ll (4^) - Th^ 11/20ie
Hieu iifng ngirdng quy mo v6'n
Mot khi gia tri ngUSng tiem nang da dUdc xac dinh, dieu q u a n trong la phai kiem t r a lidu higu Ung ngUdng c6 y nghia th6'ng ke h a y khong. H a n s e n (1999) da chting minh dUdc rang Y la tho'ng ke u6c lUdng ben viing cua y, va bien luan rang each tot nha't de kiem dinh 7 = Yo la xac dinh khoang tin cay bang phUdng p h a p "vung khong bac bo" (no- rejection region) bang kiem dinh ty le Likelihood (LR).
Tuy nhien, Hansen (1996, 1999, 2000) cho rang vi phan phoi tiem can cua LRQ la khong chuan do su hien dien cua cac t h a m so' nhiem khong dUdc xac dinh trong dieu kien gia thuyet Hg cua mo hinh phi tuyen. Vi the, k h o n g t h e xac dinh b a n g phUdng p h a p suy
BANG 1: D a n h s a c h b i e n
luan thong thUcfng. Thay vao do, u6c lupng gia tri tho'ng ke p phai thUc hien bang phuong phap Bootstrap. Hansen di xua't phUdng p h a p Bootstrap de bien doi p h a n phoi tiem can kiem dinh LR cua Ho-
4. Mo t a diJ l i e u n g h i e n cijfu
Nghien ciiu sxi dung so' li^u cua 50 tinh/thanh pho' cua Viet Nam dUdc thu t h a p theo nam trong gian doan 10 n a m ttf 2006- 2015. Cac bien so kinh te vi mo dUdc t h u t h a p t\X Tong cue Thong ke Viet Nam (GSO, 2016), chi so' PCI dugc la'y tii Phong ThUdng mai va cong nghiep Viet Nam (VCCI, 2016). DUa tren nguon so' lieu t h u thap dUdc, danh sach va thu6c do cac bien so' trong mo hinh cua nghien cUu naydUdc the hien trong bang sau day:
so', thi^dc d o , n g u o n so' l i e u Ten bien
Tang truang kinh te DIu tu true Uep nu6c ngoai Chi thucmg xuyen Do md thtrmg mai Day tu c6ng Day tir tu nhan Nang luc quan ly nha nuoc Nguon nhan luc
Ky hieu growth fdi CtX dmtm vdtnn vdtnnn pci
Id
Thudc do
T6c do tang thu nhap binh quSn d^y ngutri cua tinh/thanh phd (%) Von FDI tren dSu ngucn cua tinh/thanh phd (% GDP) Ty le chi thucfng xuyen cua tinh/thanh phd (% GDP) Do mo thuong mai (ty le xulit nhap kh^u trSn GDP) Von dSu tir nha nir6c (% GDP)
Vdn d&a tu ngoai nha nUoc (% GDP) Oil sd nang luc canh tranh cap tinh
Nguon so lieu GSO (2016) GSO (2016) GSO (2016) GSO (2016) GSO (2016) GSO (2016) V C a (2016) Ty \t luc lucmg lao dong tren 15 tu6i trSn dan s6 (%) j GSO (2016)
Nguon: M6 ta cua t^c gia.
Khao sat sd bo cho tha'y dti lieu bang can hinh nghien ciiu dUde tong hdp trong Bang 2 bang (strongly balanced).Dii lieu de chay mo du6i day.
BANG 2: Mo t a t h o n g k e duf l i e u n g h i e n cijfu panel variable
time variable
id (strongly balanced) yr, 2006 to 2015 1 unit
V a r i a b l e I g d p d m t m C t X v d t n n v d t n n n f d i I d p C l
Ob 5
5 0 0 5 0 0 5 0 0 5 0 0 5 0 0 5 0 0 5 0 0 5 0 0
M e a n
2 . 9 0 4 6 9 3 . 7 6 0 1 1 7 . 1 5 0 4 5 4 5 . 2 1 4 2 3 5 4 . 2 4 3 0 6 4 2 . 0 4 7 5 4 0 8 . 5 6 7 4 2 4 7 . 5 5 8 4 8 3 9
S t d . D e v .
. 6 8 6 2 7 5 1 J- . 2 2 3 8 4 4 . 1 0 7 7 4 8 6 . 1 8 5 7 1 6 5 . 1 0 5 6 7 3 9 . 0 6 7 6 1 2 1 . 0 4 6 9 5 0 1 . 0 5 7 2 7 8 7
M i n
X . 2 1 8 0 4 2 0 . 0 3 0 9 5 3 9 . 0 4 0 1 5 5 1 . 0 5 2 1 4 0 6 0 . 4 2 8 3 4 1 5 . 3 6 7 5 9 4 5
M a x
•:. . 7 6 8 6 1 6 o . 9 4 1 6 8 1 . 6 9 9 2 1 7 1 -L . 8 0 6 7 9 4 . 7 7 5 6 5 5 7 . 4 8 4 6 2 9 7 . 6 9 0 8 4 9 9 . 7 7 1 9 7 0 8 Nguon: Tinh toan ciia tac gia tren p h ^ mdm STATA 14.
Nghien ciiu Kinh tes6'11 (462) - Thang 11/2016
Hiiu Ang ngirfing quy md von
Dung he so khuebh t a n tai phUdng sai (Variance Inflation Factor -WW) de M ' m dinh da cong tuy^'n.
BANG 3: K i e m d i n h d a c 6 n g t u y 6 ' n V a r i a b l e
f d i f d . ± 2
c t j c d m t m v d t n n I d p e a . v d t n n n g r o w t h L I .
M e a n V I F
V I F
5 5 2 2 1 1 1
±
^
2 9 3 2 4 2 3 0 0 7 0 2 6 2 1 0 7
0 6
4 1 w 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
U 1 / V I F
1 6 8 6 0 9 1 9 0 9 1 3 4 4 8 1 6 5 4 9 9 0 5 9 5 8 9 0 6 5 7 9 2 0 4 6 8 2 4 3 1 7 9 3 5 9 9 2
9 4 1 0 9 0
Ngu6n: Tinh toan cua tac gia trfin ph&i mem STATA 14.
VIF cua bien cang cao thi cho tha'y moi quan he cua bien cang chat (manh).Th6ng thucfng, he so VIF > 10 dildc xem la c6 da cong tuyen va can xem xet loai bo bien (Kennedy, 1992). Ket qua \idc lUOng VIF cho thay khong ton tai da cong tuyen.
De t r a n h hoi quy md ho, nghien ciiu s i d u n g kiem dinh H a r r i s - Tazavalis (1999) n h a m kiem t r a t i n h dijfng cho cac bien trong mo hinh. Ket qua kiem dinh t h e hien h a u het cac bien d i u la chu6i ditoig v6i mtic tin cay 99%. Bien vdtnn va Id dijftig tai sai phan bac 1.
BANG 4: K i e m d i n h t i n h diing c h o c a c b i e n t r o n g m o h i n h Variable
growth fdi dmtm
CtX
vdtnn vdtnnn
Id pci
Level Statistic
-0,1186 0,4450 0,4466 0,4754 0,6828 0,6322 0,7577 0,3981
z -19,1838««*
-7,2408**«
-7,2009«*»
-6,4617»»»
-1,1403 -2,4378**»
0,7822 -8,4446»»*
Firsts Order Difference Statistic
:
0,0167 -0,1338
z
-16,0132"*
-19,5395»*»
•** la gia tri tdi ban cua trang ihdi diing vdi miic y nghia 1%
Nguon: Tinh toan ciaa tac gia trSn phin mem STATA 14
5. K e t q u a k i e m d i n h
Bif6c 1: Ilia chon phiidng phap ij6c lUdng Mo hinh tac dong c6' dinh FE difdc ung ho bcii ket qua kiem dinh Wald, kiem dinh Hausman.
Cu the, kiem dinhWald doi v6i mo hinh tac
dong CO dinh (FE) cho ket qua p-value <0,05, do do bac bo HQ: khong c6 sii khac biet giijta ca doi t\i&ng hoac cac th6i diem khac nhau. Ket qua, kiem dinh Hausman (Prob>Chi2 = 0,000 < 0,05) bac bo gia thuyet H,,: khong c6 tuang quan giQa
6 NghiSn ciiu Kinh t^siS 11 (462) - Thdng 11/2016
Hieu ung ngtfSng quy md vdn ..,
cac bien giai thich va thanh phan n g l u nhien trong mo hinh.
BANG 5: Ket q u a kig'm d i n h Wald BANG 6: Ket q u a k i e m d i n h H a u s m a n Modified Wald test for groupwise heteroskedasLicity fjo; difference in coefficients not systematic in fixed effect regression model
chi2(9) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)"(-l)](b-B) 57.00
Prob>chi2 = 0.0000 (V_b-V_B is not positive definite) HO: sigiiia(i)''2 = sigma'Z for all i
chi2 (50) Prob>chi2 =
1055.B4 0.0000
Bit6c 2: Kiem dinh tinh phi tuyen cua mo Tac gia sit dung high ngifdng la fdi, bien c6 hinh he so thay doi trong vung ngiidng la do md Xet mo liinh mot ngifSng vdi gia thuyet thitong mai (dmtm). Ket qua p h a n tich hoi quy Hoi Pi = p2, khong ton tai gia tri ngUOng trong ngifdng vdi mo hinh mot bien minh chiing ton mo hinh; Hj: ^i^ pa, ton tai gia tri ngifdng tai ngifSng quy mo FDI vdi gia tri la 8,96% vdi trong mo hinh. khoang tin cay 95% [8,25%; 8,97%].
BANG 7: TJdc li^chig g i a t r i n g t f d n g t r o n g m o h i n h m o t ngriofng T h r e s h o l d e s t i m a t o r ( l e v e l 9 5 ) :
m o d e l T h - 1
T h r e s h o l d 0 . 0 8 9 6
L o w e r 0 . 0 8 2 5
U p p e r 0 . 0 8 9 7 Nguon: Tmh toan cua tic gia tren phin mem STATA 14.
Ket qua Idem dinh hieu ting ngifdng sii dung cd cd sd bac bd gia thuyet H,, ve mo liinh tuyen phifdng phap Bootstrap 300 Ian cho tha'y tho'ng tinh. Nhif vay, ket luan mo hinh la phi tuyen, ke F cd y ngiua thong ke 5%, noi each khac la ton tai gia tri ngifdng trong mo hinh.
BANG 8: K e t q u a k i e m d i n h h i e u ijfng ngUfing Threshold e f f e c t tesL (bootstrap = 300]:
Threshold Single
RSS
5.1798
KiSE
0 . 0 1 3 2 F s t a t
1 6 . 2 4 P r o b
0 . 0 5 0 0 C r i t l O
1 3 . 4 8 7 5 C r i t 5
1 6 . 1 2 4 1 C r i t l
2 6 . 6 8 7 7
Nguon: TiJih toan ciia tic gia tren phan m6m STATA 14.
BiJdc 3: Xac dinh so' ngUdng trong mo h i n h
Trong b a n g kiem dinh hieu ling ngifdng, cac gia t h u y e t difdc dua r a nhif sau:
Mo hinh mot ngifdng (single) c6 gia t h u y e t HQ: mo h i n h t u y e n tfnh; H^: mo h i n h cd mot ngifdng.
Mo h i n h h a i ngifdng (double) cd gia t h u y e t Ho: mo h i n h chi cd mot ngUdng; H,:
mo hinh cd h a i ngifdng.
Ket qua p h a n tich mo h i n h h a i ngifdng vdi thii tiic Bootstrap 300 Idn cho tiing mo h i n h ngifdng cho t h a y mo h i n h cd mot gia tri ngUdng vdi miic y n g h i a 5%.
Nghien ciiu Kinh teso 11 (462) - Thing 11/2016
Hieu iifng ngirdng quy mA vtfn
B A N G 9: Ket qua ttdc iMdng mo hinh hai ngiidng
Estimating the it-lireshold parjameter's j.
BooStrapping for threshold effect test:
Threshold estimator (level = 9 5 ) :
2nd 2nd
Th-21 Th-22
Threshold 0.089 6 0.0896 0 .0028
0.0625 0.0824 0.002S
0.0397 0.0897
•^0.0029
Threshold effect test (bootstrap = 300 3 0 0 ) : Threshold
ngle uble
Prob CritlO 5.1798
5 .1152
0.0132 0.013 0
16.24 0.0500 13-8306 1G.2180 23.6551 4.95 0.39t)0 8.3869 9.6723 13.1515 NguSn: Tinh t o ^ cua tac gia tr&i phSn m^m STATA 14.
Elide 4: Xac dinh gia tri ngUdng va hi^u lUdng lai mo hinh mot ngu3ng vdi thu tuc flngngUdng Bootstrap 300 l^n, thu dtidc k^t qua nhU
Gi xac dinh gia tri ngiiSng, ti^n hanhiidc sau;
BANG 10: Kgt qu& lidc liTrfng md hinh TAR theo phifcfng phdp FE
F i x e d - e f f e c t s ( w i t h i n ) r G r o u p v a c i a b l e : i d R - s q j w i t h i n = 0 . 1 5 1 3
b e t w e e n = 0 . 0 6 6 2 o v e r a l l = 0 . O 1 3 3
Numtieir o f o b s N u m b e r o f g r o u p s Ol3s p e r g r o u p :
c (vi_i , Xb) = - 0 . 8 4 0 2 , „ „ . l .
g r o w t h L I . o t x v d t n n v d t n n n Id p c i c a t # c . d m t m 0 1 _ o o n s s i g m a _ u s ± g m a _ e r h o
C o e f - S t d . E r r .
- . 1 4 2 4 2 8 - . 4 1 0 7 5 9 8 . 0 4 3 1 6 6 4 - , 1 3 2 7 9 0 1 - 1 . 3 2 8 4 3 1
. 5 8 0 1 3 4 5
. 0 5 9 4 7 7 3 - . 0 0 5 3 0 9 4 . 7 3 2 4 9 5 5 . 1 0 5 9 8 0 1 1 . 1 2 3 0 6 7 4 2 . 4 2 5 8 1 1 3 3
0 5 4 3 0 D 6 3 1 5 5 4 1 7 0 6 3 7 6 4 9 1 1 6 6 4 1 2 2 6 0 2 5 4 9 1 9 3 8 0 1 8
O 1 6 9 3 0 1 0 0 8 3 9 2 4 1 6 0 9 8 7 7
( f r a c t i o n - 2 - 1 0 - 1 - 5 2
3 - 0
.
o f V t
6 2 3 0 6 8 1 4 lo 9 9
5 1 6 3 5 5
a r i a P > 1 t 1
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0
"
n e e 0 0 9 1 9 4 4 9 9 2 5 6 D O O 0 0 3
0 0 1 5 2 7 0 0 0
d u e t
[ 9 5 % C o n f . z n t e r v a l ]
- . 2 4 9 2 3 3 3 - 1 - 0 3 1 4 0 7 - . 0 8 2 2 5 4 4 - . 3 6 2 2 1 4 5 - 1 . 8 4 0 3 3 3 . 1 9 8 9 4 0 9
. 0 2 6 1 7 7 - . 0 2 1 S 1 6 5 . 4 1 5 8 4 4 6
o u _ i )
0 3 5 6 2 2 8 2 0 9 8 8 6 9 1 6 8 5 8 7 2 0 9 6 & 3 4 4 8 1 6 5 2 9 1 9 6 1 3 2 8 1
0 9 2 7 7 7 6 0 1 1 1 9 7 8 . 0 4 9 1 4 6
a l l u _ i = 0 1 F ( 4 9 , 3 4 2 ) = 1 . 3 4 P r o b > F NguSn: Tmh to5n t^a t5c gia tren ph&i m6m STATA 14.
N^iSn aOu Kinh iSs& 11 (462) - Tb^ i l^oi6
Hifiu iirng ngirdng quy mo von ,
T h o n g ke F = 1,34 vdi miic y n g h i a tho'ng k e 10% bac bo gia t h u y e t HQ: t a t ca cac he so' u^ = 0, t h e o dd mot Ian niia m i n h chtfng mo h i n h ifdc lUdng F E la phii hdp.
Theo do, Lfdc lifdng mo h i n h TAR theo phifdng p h a p tac dong c6' d i n h (FE) cho k e t q u a n h u sau:
growth.^ = - 0,142428 + 0,0594773 dmtm d(fdi<0,0896)
[-2,62]*** [3,51]***
0,0053094 dmtm d(fdi>0,0896) 0,4107598ctx
[-0,63][-l,30]
+ 0,0431664 vdtnn - 0,1327901 v d t n n n - 1,328431 Id + 0,5901345 pci
HINH 2: T h o n g kg L i k e l i h o o d
[ 0 , 6 8 ] [ - 1 , 1 4 ] [ - 5 , 1 0 ] * * * [ 2 , 9 9 ] * * * {*** l^n lif<3t tUdng d n g vdi ratic y nghia 1%)
Ket qua lidc lifdng cho thay, vdi ngUdng FDI < 8,96% GDP thi viec gia t a n g do md thifdng mai t h e m 10% se lam t a n g G D P thgm 0,59% (vdi mdc y nghia tho'ng ke 10%).
Tijf gia tri ngifdng nay, n e u tiep tuc t h u htit FDI Gdn hdn 8,96% GDP) thi khi gia t a n g do md thifdng mai se lam giam t a n g trifclng GDP (cu th^ la giam 0,05% cho mdi 10% gia t a n g do md thifdng mai).
Khoang tin cay va tho'ng ke LR difdc the hien trong h i n h 2 u n g ho sti ton tai cua hieu d n g ngifdng.
d o i v d i c a c g i a tri ngtfdng FDI
Khoang tin cay va thong ke LR
NgLTcng FDI 1
;. World Bank + Staia 14
Nguon: Tinh toan cua tac gia tr6n p h ^ mem STATA 14
6. K e t l u a n v a m o t so' k h u y e n nghi c h i n h s a c h
Tren cd sd ke thifa cac nghien ctiu kinh (iien ve moi quan he giQa FDI va t a n g trifdng kinh te, nghien ciiu da diia r a khai niem ve ngifdng quy mo FDI, tii do xay diing mo hinh cho md'i quan hS giQa FDI va tang tnt^ng kinh te. DiJa t r e n md hinh TAR vdi phifdng phap tac dong co dinh FE va t h u tuc
Bootstrapcho 50 tinh/ t h a n h pho' cua Viet Nam trong giai doan 2006-2015,ket qua chinh ttf phan tich k h a n g dinh rang: thii nhdt, CO minh chiing ro r a n g ve sii ton tai mot gia tri ngifdng quy md FDI den t a n g trifdng t h u n h a p binh quan dau ngifdi; thi^
hai, vdi viec sii dung dp md thifdng mai la bien cd he so' t h a y doi trong vung ngifdng, nghien ctiu p h a t hien tac dong gian tiep ciia
Nghien ciiu Kinh te sd' 11 (• - Thing 11/2016
Higu i^ng ngiidng quy mo vdn
FDI len t a n g trifSng kinh te;th]i ba, tac dong cua dp mb thifdng mai len t a n g trifdng kinh te se dao chieu tti tich cUc sang tieu cUc khi Viet Nam t h u hiit FDI vifdt qua gia tri ngifdng.Tren cd sb do, nghien ciiu cho r a n g can thiet phai t h a y doi chien lifdc t h u htit FDI song song vdi viec hoan thien he tho'ng chinh sach FDI.
Thii nha't, can thay doi ve n h ^ n thiic rling t h u htit cang nhi^u FDI cang tot. Viec nghien ctiu tac dong cua FDI len t a n g trifclng kinh te cho thsly neu dong von FDI vtfdt qua gia tri ngifdng 8,96% GDP, tac dong cua dp md thifdng mai len t a n g trifdng kinh t§' se dao chi^u tCf tich ciic sang tieu ctic.Trong dieu kien cu the cua Viet Nam, nhiSng tac dong trai chi§"u cua dp md thifdng mai len GDP co the dupe giai thich bdi: i/ cd CEI'U hang xua't n h a p kh^u thieu ben viing; ii/ td'c dp t a n g cua n h a p k h a u Idn hdn toe dp t a n g cua xua't khau; iii/ khu viic cong nghiep phti trd khong phat trien hoac phat tri^n cham, khdng tUdng xiing vdi quy mo ciia FDI va vi the ma giam mdc dp tac dong tich ciic cua dp md thUdng mai tdi GDP; iv/ nhiing danh dot giUa khu vijfc san xua't tit n h a n trong nUdc vdi doanh nghiep FDI se lam cho FDI cd tac dong tieu ctic tdi GDP mac dii dp md thUdng mai dupe cai thien do nguon FDI.
Thi^ hai, hoan thien va ap dung dong bo he thong chinh sach FDI gom ba cap dp: t h u hiit, nang cap va khuyen khich md'i lien ket giUa doanh nghiep trong va ngoai n u d c l Trong do, he thong chinh sach "nang cap" co tac dung thu hiit va hinh t h a n h mot cd c^'u doanh nghiep FDI phu hdp vdi muc tieu p h a t trien ben viing cua quoc gia, hudng tdi cac san pham xua't khau co gia tri gia t a n g cao, han che d n h i l m moi trudng, tao dong life phat trien khu vtic doanh nghiep h6 trp trong nUdc, t£c dd ma giam nguon nguyen lieu n h a p khau cho san pham xua't khau.
Thii ba, cac muc tieu chien ludc phat trien kinh t e x a hoi giai doan 2016-2025, tarn nhin 2015 can dUdc cu the hoa tUng giai doan de dam bao tinh kha thi ciia chien lUdc. Theo
d6, viec t h u htit FDI vao tiing k h u vtic s a n xua't, tfing vUng kinh te, n g a n h k i n h t e can t u a n thii mot quy hoach nha't q u a n cd t a m n h i n t r u n g va dai h a n d p h a m vi quoc gia hoac vung kinh te./.
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Nghi§n cuu Kinh l4s611 (462) - ThAng 11/2016
