QUAN TRj-QUANLY
NGHIEN Clfu KHA NANG
VA YEU TO ANH HiJCfNG DEN L I J A CHON THIET BI TIET KIEM DIEN
SAU TANG GIA DIEN SINH HOAT
• PHAN DIEU HLfdNG
T 6 M TAT:
Tdng gid bdnle didn sinh boat ngdy 20/3/2019 da cd nhffng anh hffdng nha't dinh den tdm 1^
cung nhff vi§c didu chlnh hanhvi su'dung dien cua ngffdi dan, trong dd cd sff thay ddi lffa chgn su'dung thiet bj dien tiet kiem dien trong iffng gia dmh. S&dungmd hlnh muitinoniial logit trong biii bdo nhdm ddnh gid kha ndng thay ddi lffa chon sff dung thie't hi tiet kiem dien trong gia dinh sau thdi gian hdn 6 thdng tdng gid dien sinh hoat. Mau dieu tra dffdc thu thdp tai qudn Hodng Mai vd Dd'ng Da, thanh phd' Ha Ndi.
Tiif khoa: Ltfa chon, tiet kiSni dien, multinomial logit, qudn Hoang Mai, qudn Dd'ng Da, thdnh phdHd Ndi.
1. D$l vd'n dd
Tn/de ngay 20/3/2019 eung ed nbieu ddt dieu chinh gid bdn dien, qua mdi ddt dieu chinh ddu cd nhtfng phan ffng nhat dinh, vdi mffe do khde nhau lifphia doanh nghiep va ngffdi dan. Dieu dd hodn lodnhdpiy vl viec tdng gid dien se anh hffdng trffc tiep den chi phi san xua'l cung nhff chi tieu hdng thiing eua edc hd gia dinh,
Neuxiecldnggid dien khdng anh hffdng boac anh hirdng rat it (khdng cam nban tde dong) den chi tieu gia dinh thi thffdng cdc hd gia dinh se khfing CO ddng thdi trong dieu cbinh banh vi sff dung dien eua gia dinh. Tuy nhien, neu cam nhan anh hffdng ldn den chi tieu eua gia dinh. thi hau net cae gia dinh deu quan iam vd dieu chinh hanh vi SlJ dung ciing nhff lffa chpn sff dung thiet bi liet 'iiem dien neu dieu kien cho phep. Vdi thdi gian f"Jn 6 Ihdng tinh iff ihdi diem Bd Cdng Thffdng iu\ei dmh tdng gid dien ban Ie, cdc ho gia dinh cd
du thdi gian danb gid nhffng ldc ddng vd ed the cd nhffng thay ddi lffa ebon sff dung thiet bi dien trong gia dinh.
Nghien effu nd}' nham muc dich ddnh gid kha nang Iffa chon sff dung thidt bj dien eua gia dinh khi tdng gtd dien. de tha'y ro kha nang phan ffng cua gia dinh khi gia dien sinh boat tdng. Khd ndng lffa ebon sff dung thie't bi tiet kiem dien dffdc the hien qua sd Ioai thie't bi tiet kiem dien dffdc gia dinb lffa chpn sff dung sau mot thdi gian tang gia dien (the hien bang xac sud't khd ndng Iffa ehpn thie'l bj tiet kiem dien trong gia dinh, ddnh gid phan ffng eua gia dinh vdl \ iec tdng gid dien sinh hoat). Trong pham vi nghien effu, md hinh multinomial logit dffde lffa chpn nham ddnh gid kba nang lffa chon siJ dung thiet hi tiet kiem dien cua gia dinh khi gia dien sinh boat tdng. Qua nghien effu cung cho biet them nhffng vd'n de nbieu gia dinh gap phai khi quyet dinh lffa chon sff
S o l -Thang 1/2020 139
TAP Cll CdNG T I I M e
dung ihici bl nel kiem dien. Dff lieu sff dung eho nghien cffu bao gdm eac NO IIOU thd'ng ke ihrf edp va 127 mau Jicu ira da dffdc ihu thdp tai qudn Hoang M.11 vd quan Dd'ng Da. thanh phd'Hd Ndi.
2. I'dng quan nghien cffu
Md hinh muliinomial logit ihffdng dffde lffa chpn khi nghien effu nhffng van de lien quan den kha n5ng lffa chon khac nhau (nhieu hdn 2 lffa chon) eua bidn phu ihupc. Nhffne nghien cffu nffdc ngodi ffng dung md hinh trong nhieu ITnh vffc nhff gui) ihdng van lai (9). bao hiem du bch [S].. Md hlnh multinomial lugil eiing dffde ffng dung irong nghien cffu lai Vici Nam khd da dang trong phdn tieh hanh vi lffa chon ea> trdng thich hdp vdi bie'n ddi khi hdu cua ndng dan \ ici N.im 11 j . lffa chpn phffdng tien giao thdng van lai cua ngffdi dan dd thi [31. lffa chon vi tri eho doanh ugliicp logistic | 7 | . phdn lieh ede yeu id anh hffdng dcn rui ro tin dung | 3 | . quye'l dinh di eff ed nhdn (4|. Tnmg cde nghien effu. bie'n phu ihudc deu the hien LJC kh.i nang lffa chon khac nhau
\d cae bie'n dde lap la nhffng \cu id anh hffdng den kha ning lffa ehon khde nhau cua bien phu Ihudc Phan mem SPSS. ST-\T,-\ dffde lffa chpn sff dung trong khd nhicu nghien cffu md hinh multinomial logit.
3. Md hinh nghien cffu
3.1. Phifdng phdp nghien cdu vd dt? lifu Md hlnh muliinomial logit dffde sff dung \di muc dieh nghien cffu kha ndng lffa chon ihiet bi iici kicm dien khi gid tang, cung nhff mdi sd\cu id cd the anh hffdng khac nhff thu nhap. dien nang ueu ihu. hieu biet eiia chd hd... CML sd lieu ihdng ke thff cap \a dieu tra sd cap dffdc phdn tich \a \ff ly hdng phan mem SPSS. Khd nang lffa ehpn sff dung ihiei bl tiet kiem dien dffdc ddnh gid ihdng qua \.ic snJi lya ehon sir dung thiei bi tidi kiem dicn khi gia dien sinh hoat idng \a dffde the hien qua kdl qud md hlnh multinomial logii.
MJu dieu tra gdm 150 mau dffde thu thdp tai quan Hoang M.ii \a qudn Ddng Da thanh phd'Hd Ndi Mdu dieu tra ngau nhien theo linh thuan lien dieu ir.i. Sd lieu Jicu tra dffde thu thdp (thu \ e 138 phieu tra Idi) \d \ff ly sd bd loai bd nhffng mau khdng cung edp da\ dii hojc thdng tin khdng dii lin eay cho nghien cffu. Sd mau cdn lai phu hdp
\di \eu cau Ihdng tin dieu tra Id 127 mau.
Mdu phieu dieu tra dffde eau tnic thdnh 3 phan:
(il md la sd bd nhffng ihdng tin chinh ve gia dinh
dffdc dieu ira. nhff: sdnhan khdu. hoc van eua chu gia dinh. hieu biet cua chu gia dinh \ c mffc do quan tdm. hieu biet \ c thiel bj tiet kicni dien; (ii) ddnh gid kha ndng lffa chpn tliiei bj lidt kidm dien vd yeu td anh hffdng kba nang lffa chpn sff dung ihie't bi tiet kiem dien khi tiing gia dien sinh boat nhff mffc sffdung dien hang thang. thu nhdp trung blnh/ngffdi eiia gia dinh. cam nhan anh hffdng lang gia dien, gid thiet bj tidt kiem dien so vdi thiet bj ihdng thffdng...: (iii) van dc khd khan khi ede gia dinh liep can ihdng tin. quyet dinh lffa chpn thiel bi liet kiem dien.
3.2. .Mo hinh nghien cdu
Md hinh multinomial logit dffdc lffa chpn trong nghien cffu kha ndng lffa chpn sff dyng thiel bi liel kicm dien eila gia dinh khi tdng gid dien sinh hoat, Multinomial logit la md hlnh dffdc md rpng tff md hlnh logistic logit |9]. Dang md hlnh multinomial logit ciing cd bien phu thuoc dinh tinh nhffng cd (M) irang ihdi/lffa chpn/ke't qua. Mdt gid tri clia bidn phu thude sc dffde ebon ldm iham chidu, xdc sud't cua cdc nhdm kbdc se dffdc so sdnh vdi xdc sud't cua nhdm tham chidu. Md hinh muliinomial logit dffdc the hien [9]:
Bien phu thupe (Y) cd (M) trang thdi, P (Y, = m, vdi m = 2-M) thi xac sua't de (Y) nhan gid in (m) dffdc bidu dien qua hdm:
*|;«p{«,-^/y, .V,, U£L-XP(/,„)
^xii(/,„)
^ Trong dd: (i) la quan sdt thff (i) vd (k = 1-^K) Id sd bidn ddc lap (Xik) cd the la dinh tinh hodc dinh lu'dng.
Xde suat de bie'n phu thudc co gia trj chpn ldm tham chie'u {gia sff chpn irang thai dau lien, nghTa la m = I):
PO' -U--^— .' ^ J
log:
i + Z ' - - ' ' [ « " . - y ^ . A , ) \^f_,.^,,i/,,i
Md hinh multinomial logit xay dffng dffdi dang
P(Y =m) •
Md hinh multinomial logit si> dung trong nghien ciru kha nang lUa chon sis dung thiet bi tie't kiem dien trong gia dinh khi tang ,,;• ,l,6n ,,inh hoal dUdc xay difng cu the nhu ^au
140 So I -Thong 1/2020
QUAN 1R|-quAn IV
Bien phu thupc lhe hien kha nang lffa chpn sff Juni: thiet hi tiel kiem dien cua gia dinh khi lang gia dicn. Kha ndng ndy dffdc ddnh gid qua viee khdng It/a chpn. lffa chpn it hay nhieu loai thiet bi U^l kiem dien Clia gia dinh khi tdng gid dien sinh hoal.
SDung = 0 ne'u gia dinh khdng lffa chpn thiet bl tie'l kidm dien (gia dinh khdng cd phan ffng thay ddi ihiet bj dien).
SDung = 1 neu gia dinh cd sffdung 1 loai ihidt bj liel ki^m dien iff khi tdng gia dien (gia dinh ed phan ffng thay doi thiet bi dien nhffng it).
Sdung = 2 neu gia dinh cd sff dung tff 2 loai thie't bj tiet ki^m dien trd len tff khi tdng gia dien Igiu dinh cd phan ffng tich cffe thay doi thidt bi dien).
Gia dinh khdng thay ddi lffa chpn sff dung thidt hiiicikiemdipn khi lang gia dien dffde ehpn ldm nhdm tham chieu cho cde nhdm ed dieu ehinh khac.
Bidn dde lap la cde yeu td'anh hffdng den kha ndng lffa ehpn siJ dung ihiet bi dien cua gia dinh khi ldng gid dien. Bie'n dpc lap bao gdm cdc bie'n djnh Iffpng vd djnh tinh nhff sau:
DTuoi: ludi cua chu hd (tudi).
NKhau: sdnhan khd'u trong gia dinh (ngffdi).
TNhap; thu nhdp binh qudn/ngffdi cua gia dinh (tneu ddng/ngffdi/lhdng).
DienTT: dien ndng lieu thu blnb quan 1 ihang cua gia dinh (kWh/thdng).
H\an: hpc va'n cua ehu bd (THPT. eao d^ng/dai hpe vd sau dai hpc).
QTani: mffe dp quan tam cua gia dinb den ihiet bi tiet kiem dien (khdng quan tdm. it quan tdm va rai quan tdm).
HBiet: mffc dp hieu biet cua gia dinh ve thiet bi tiet kiem dien (khdng biet. bie't it va am hieu).
GDien. cam nhan ve anh hffdng tdng gia dien ddi vdi gia dinh (khdng anb hffdng. it anh hffdng
\a ra'l anh hffdng).
GTbi: ciim nhdn ve gid thidi bj tiet kiem dien so vdi thiel bi binh thffdng (khdng qud ddt, qud ddt).
Sett: mffc dp sdn cd cua thiel hi lidt kiem dien tren thj trffdng (khdng siin cd va san cd)
4. Kdt qua nghidn ciVu 4.1. Tho'ng ke rnd td
Qua sdlieu dieu ira 127 mdu cho tha'>. sau hdn 6 thang tinh tff thdi diem idng gid dien smh hoat inga\ 20/3/2019), dd cd rat nhieu gia dinh quan
tdm tdi thiet hi liet kiem dien: 95/127. chieni 74.S'"> eho rdng rdi quan tdm. 18 gia dinh it quan tam vd chicd 14/127gia dinh (11%) tra Idi khdng quan tdm. Trong sd 14 gia dinh tra Idi Ididng quan tdm de'n thidt bj iie'i kiem dien deu cd dien ndng tieu thu trung binh trong thdng dffdi 300kWh (cd 10 gia dinh cd mffe tieu thu dffdi 200kWh \a 4 gia dinh cd mffc dffdi 300kWh). Cac gia dinh chffa quan tdm de'n sff dung thidt bi lidt kiem dien d khu vffe dieu tra chu ydu ed mffc lieu thu dien hdng thang khdng cao. cam nhdn mffe dp anh hffdng cua tdng gia dicn ddn sinh hoat gia dinh khdng nhieu (9/127 gia dinh khdng quan iam \d khdng thd'y anh hffdng iang gid dien, dien ndng lieu thu dffdi 200kWh/ihang. 5/127 gia dinh tra ldi khdng quan lam vd it anh hffdng ciing lieu thu dffdi 300kWh/ihang). Sd' lieu dieu tra cung cho thd'y, cung vdi mffe lieu thu dien trung blnh/ihdng cua edc gia dinh khdng quan tdm de'n thidt bi tidt kiem dien thi thu nhdp binh qudn iron ngffdi cua cde gia dinh nay eung deu dffdi 10 trieu ddng/ngffdi/lhdng (chi cd 4 gia dinh cd thu nhap trung binh 10 ineu ddng/thdng) vd so nbdn khdu Id 2 ngffdi.
Khd nang lffa chpn sff dung thie'l bi tie'l kiem dien phu thude nhieu yeu to', trong dd khdng the khdng de cap sff hieu bidt cua chii bd ve cdc ibidt bi dien. Qua sd' lieu mau dieu tra cho thd'y, da sd nam gidi quydl dinh viec mua eae thidt bi net kiem dien trong gia dinh (115/127 chidm 90.67P) nhffng -sd' ngffdi tra ldi cd bidu bidt it ve thidt bj tiet Uem dien lai kbdng nhd (60/127.47.2%). ira ldi khdng bidt cd 18 ngffdi (14 2%), ra't am hieu chie'm 38 S^c sd' ngffdi tra ldi. Nhff vdy, bdn WVr gia dinh trong mdu dieu tra chffa ed nhii'ng hieu biet td't \ e thiet bi tidt kiem dien trong gia dinh.
Viec lffa ehpn thiet bi vdi ngffdi lieu dung hien tai vdn mang \eu to'cam tinh. phu thudc nhieu kha ndng chi ira ciing nhff anh hffdng qua cdc kenh thdng un ve thiet bi tie't kiem dien nhff ngffdi ban, ngffdi quen (tffdng ffng 38.6%, 49.6%).
Dieu ddng tide la kenh thdng tin trffc tidp tff ngdnh Dien hodn todn bo trd'ng vdi ngffdi lieu dung hien tai (0%)1 Vdi ketqua sdlieu dieu tra nhffvdy. day thffe sff id mdt han ehd cijng nhff ed hdi eho nganh Dien cd nhffng ehffdng irlnh iruyen thdng. tff \ d'n thich hdp. thidt thu'c. gdp phdn ihay ddi hlnh anh ciia nganh khi thffe sff hffdng idi khaeh hang.
So 1 -Thang 1/2020 141
lAPCIICiUIIIMC
Sd' gia dinh khdng sff dung loai thiei bj tiet kiem dien ndo. siJdung I loai \ a tff 2 loai trd len trong mau dieu tra lan Iffdt 8. 87. 32 gia dinh (tffdng ffng 6.3*"^ 68 5*"^ va 2.^^.2'"^ i. Trong 14 gia dinh khdng quan tam. ehi cd S gM dinh khdng sff dung ba't k\ thiet bj tiel kiem dien nao. Cde gia dinh khdng sff dung thiet hi tie't kiem dien Id nhffng gia dinh it ngffdi (2 nhdn khdu). ihu nhdp/ngffdi/lhdng trung binh dffdi 10 trieu ddng/thdng (7.6 trieu ddng/lhdngl. mffc lieu thu dien ndng thd'p (dffdi 200k\Vh/lhang).
4.2. Ke't qud nghien cdu
Sff dung phan mem SPSS trong phan lich. ffdc Iffdng md hlnh multinomial logit vdi bien phu thudc the hien kha ndng lffa ehpn thidt bj tidi kiem dien va cdc bien ddc ldp nhff da md id tai muc 3 2 Chpn kha ndng gia dinh khdng sffdung ihieibi tiet kiem dicn lam iham chieu vd so sdnh edc kha nang lffa chpn khde (sff dung I ioai thiet hi lidl kidm didn \a sffdung tff 2 loai trd len) vdi trffdng hdp tham chidu. Thffc hipn hdi quy vdi cdc bien ddc lap vd loai bd dan eae bidn khdng ed v nghTa thdng kc qua iffng bifdc. vdi he sd McF-adden la 0.862 (ly le 86.2'' sff thay ddi cua bidn phu thudc dffde giai thieh qua cdc bien ddc lap trong md hlnh multinimial logit). Sd lieu dieu tra va ffde Iffdng md hinh eho thay kha niing lffa ehpn sff dung ihiet bi tiet kiem dien vd cdc bien cd tde ddngnhffkdlqua trong Bang 1.
Chpn tham chieu la xdc su.ii khd ndng gia dinh khdng lffa chpn sff dung thiel hi net kidm dien, so sdnh 2 trffdng hdp cdn lai. kei qua cho thdy:
, P{SDung = \) 7 In — = ^u
F(Sdting = 0)
= -71.892+ 0.3S4Dien7r -0.4]lTnhap
, r{SDung^2) ..
In ''-', PiSchnig = 0)
^-106.291-l-0.439D/e/)ry-l-0.3667Wjo/) Mffc tieu thu dien trung binh hang thdng va thu nbdp Id 2 yeu td'cd y nghTa thd'ng ke vd tac dong manh ddn kha ndng lffa chpn sff dung thie't bj tiet kiem dien kbi tang gid dien. Khi mffc tieu tbu dien trong gia dinh tdng se ldm tang kha ndng lffa chpn thidt bi tidt kiem dien (1 loai va nhieu loai) so vdi khdng sffdung. Tuy nhien, da'u cua bie'n thu nhdp trong trffdng hdp lffa chpn sff dung 1 loai .so vdi khdng sff dung ihiet bj tie't kiem dien lai the hien giam kha ndng lffa ehpn sff dung I Ipai so vdi khdng sff dung. Nhff vay, ciing cd kha nang khi tang thu nhdp cdc gia dinh cd the iffa chpn tdng them nhieu hdn 2 loai thidt bi tiet kiem dien. Dieu nay ciing the hien trong tang kha nang lffa chpn nhidu hdn 2 ihie't bj trd len sp vdi khdng sff dung khi Ihu nhap tang.
Bdng I. Khd nang lUa chpn sQ dung thiet bi tiet ki^m dien khi tang gia dien
Su dung TbfTK*
Intercept Su dung „ . ^^
, ^ DienTT 1 loai
Tnhap Interrupt Tu2loai „ . ^
DienTT tro len
Tnhap The re;< ,<„, • •,,!, ;'n'
B
-71 892 384 -.417
•106 291 .439 .366 ,.• Kl,,,,,:;
Std. EmjT
34.283 188 .560 35.626
189 646
\n dung.
Wald
4.397 4184 .554 8.901 5.395 321
df 1 Sig.
1 036 1 041 1 , .457 1 1 .003 1 |^02o7 1 ' .571
B<p(B)
1.468 .659
1551 1.442
95% Confidence Interval lor Exp(B) Lower Bound
Upper Bound
"
1 016 2.120 .220 , 1.976
" - -
1.071 2 246
•406 5.117
t qua tin, „i„h tnnltinamiai logii
142 So 1 -Thdng 1/2020
QUAN IRj-QUAN IY
Kdl qua tff md hlnh cho tha'y dd'i vdi nhffng gia dinhchi lffa chpn sff dtJng 1 loai thie't bi tiet kiem (Ii?n. thi tde dpng cua thu nhap de'n kha ndng lffa chpn thiet bj ldn hdn so vdi lac ddng Iffdng dien liiu ihu. Ngffdc lai, nhffng gia dinh cd sd dung 2 ioai ihidt bi tiet kiem dien trd ien, tac ddng cua di?n tieu thu Idn hdn vd deu ddng bidn. NghTa la.
iang mffc tieu thu dien va tang thu nhdp trung binh hdng thdng lam tdng xdc sua't gia dinb se lffa chonsffdung tff 2 thidt bi tidt kiem dien trd len so vdi khdng si^ dung thidt hi nao
(Iifdng ffng ldng 55.1% vd 44 2%
jdi vdi dien ndng tidu thu vd ihu nhdp). Ket qud ndy phu hdp vdi sdlieu dieu tra thffc tdkhi cde gia dinh ndy deu rat quan tam de'n ihiei bj. cd dien nang tidu thu hdng Ihdng cao (4 gia dinh cd lieu ihv tr£n 300kWh/thdng vd 29 gia dinh tifiu thu nen 400kWh/thang) vil cung cd thu nhdp kha cao (3 gia dinh thu nhdp tff 11-15 trieu dong/ngffdi/thang, 19 gia dinh 16- 20tri^uddng/thdng va lOgia dinh tren 20 trieu ddng/thdng).
Sff Ihay ddi khd ndng lffa chpn I 0 ihifil bj tidt kiem dien qua cdc ^
mtfc lieu ihu dien vd thu nhap
trung binh gia dinh hang thdng thdng qua xdc sud'l li/a chpn so' loai thiet bj lie't kiem dien. Ket qua dt/dc Irinh bdy trong Bang 2.
Thu nhdp vd dien ndng tieu thu hdng thdng ldng se ldm giam nhanh chdng kha ndng khong lifa chon sff dung thie't hi tie't kiem dien trong gia dinh. 0 nhdm (1) kha ndng khdng lffa chpn sff
dung thiet bi tie'l kiem dien chie'm ffu the' (vac sua't 100% khdng chpn su'dung). Nhdm 2 chii \cu tffa chpn sff dung I Ipai thiet bj tiet kiem dien.
Nhdm (3) baldau giam kha ndng lffa chpn 1 loai thiet bi va tdng kha ndng Iffa chon tff 2 loai thiet bi tiel kiem dien trd ien. Nhdm (4) kha ndng lffa chpn sffdung 2 loai thie't bj tiet kiem dien trd len chieni ffu the. Xde sud't tffa chon sff dung thiet bi tie'l kiem dien tff 2 loai trd len cd ihd dffdc thd'v rd trona Hinh I.
Hint) 1: Kha nang lUa ctign 2 logi tliiet bi tiet ki$m dien ttd len trong gia dint)
1.200 1.000 0.800 0.600 0.400 0.200 0.000
H M ^ ^
200 400 600 800
Ket qua thu dffdc khi so sdnh giffa kha nang lffa chpn sff dung I loai. tff 2 loai ihidt bj lidt kiem dien trd len vdi trffdng hdp tham chie'u (khdng sffdung thidt bj tidt kiem dien ndo) cOng eho thd'y: (i) Dien nang tieu thu trung binh bang thdng Clia gia dinh tang them 1 kWh, thi kha nang Iffa ehpn sff duna 1 loai thidt bi lidt kiem dien Bang 2. Khd ndng lifa chpn thie't bj SIJT dung tiet kiem dien gia dinti khi tang gia
Xac suat
P{SDung=0)
Thu nh§p 7.5trD Snang 150kWh (nhom 1)
Thunh$p13trO Dnang 250ld/Vh (nhdm 2)
Thunh$p18ti€) Bnang 35010/Vh (nhdm 3)
1.00000 0.00000 0.00000
Thu nh§p 23trO Dnang 500kWh
(nhdm 4)
0,00000
P{Sdiing=1) , 0.00000
P{Sdung=2) 0.00000
Ngiic'in: Tinh todn lit kei qud md binh
S o l -Thang 1/2020 143
TAP cn CiK THIK
tang -^ ^ • \k khd nang lffa chon tff 2 Ioai trd ien u n g 51.1ft: (ii)Thu nhdp tnmg binh tang I trieu ddng ngadi/thang. se Iam giam kha rang Iffa chon sff dung t Ioai thiel bi iiei kiera dien 3 - 1%
%a tSng kn^ nang lu'j ehon tff 2 Ioai trd I e n - ^ ^ ' i . 5. Ket IUSD
Kei qua dieu tra i27 mau tai quan Hodni; Mai
\a quan Doaz Da ihdnh phd' Hd Ndi cho :hj> ^d Iffdng gia Jinh lffa chon sffdung thiet bi tie't kiem dien chiem t\ le kh^ Idn 193 ''^e). nhfflig *d gia dinh iffa chpn 2 ioai trd Ien khdng cao i25.2%).
Dien n^ng lieu thu hang thdng \d thu nhap binh qudn/ngffdi eua gia Jinh la 2 veu to quan trpng nha't anh hffdng den kha na^c lffa chpn sff dung thiel bi tiet kiem dien sau Kbi iang gid dien sinh boat. Tac ddng cua dien n^ng lieu thu anh hffdng de'n kha ndng lffa chon sff dung thidt bi iiei kiem dien manh tidn so \di thu nhap binh qudn ngffdi Clia gia dinh. Tie ddng cua dien nang tieu thu cd ldc ddng ddng bien vdi khj nSng lffa chon sff duns I Ioai vJ nhieu loai thiet bi iiei kiem dien.
Thu nhap Iai lam gidm kba ndng lffa chpn sH dung I loai thiet bj tiet kiem dien nhfftig lam iang kha nang lffa chpn tff 2 Ioai trd len so \d'i kha nang khdng sffdung thiei bj liet kiem dien.
Sau thdi gian hdn 6 thang tang gid dien sinh boat (20/3/2019), nhieu hd gia dinh da cd dieu chinh hdnh visff dung dien qua viec lffa chpn thay ddi thiet bj tiet kiem dien so vdi trffdc. Tuy nhien.
ciing ihav rang, thdng tin \d hieu biet \ e eae ihiei bi nd\ edn han che' trong cac gia dinh. Kenh thdng tin chii \eu cho lffa chpn ihie't bi tie't kiem dien vdn iff ngffdi ban va qua ngffdi quen. Mdi kenh thdng tin quan trpng tff^ nganh Dien hodn loan khdng cd va danh gid tde ddng tff tuyen truyen ciia nganh den sff dung dien ciia gia dinh hoan lodn khdng kha quan. \*di muc tieu hffdng de'n khdch hang, thay ddi cd ban ve hinh anh nganh. thay ddi tff duy cung cap dich vu dien.
ngdnh Dien can \d> dffng kdnh thdng tin hffu ich.
luyen truyen va tff van Iifa chpn sff dung thie't hi dien tiet kiem den ngffdi dan hieu qua hdn •
T.M ITEI THWIKHAO:
/. .\ ^ii\tr. HUu Dung. Nguyen Chdu Thogi \2014i. M6 hinb mubiu. imial loguphdn lich hdnh vi chgn lUa cdv Irong ihich iiJi,? irfi bien Joi km hgu ctia nc'mg ddn \ iet Sam. mang thdng nn KHA. C \ TP. Hd ChiMinh.
2 ^'gi'^-en Dting Hao < 2012-.Cdcnhdnir, urn hri'-.^d^r.^uluachon chien luac smh kc cuaedc nong hd^^^
x-en bien tinh ThUa Thien Hue. igp 72B. sd S < 2('i2, irang 93 -102. Tap L In Khoa hoc. Dgi hoc Hue.
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J. Phan S c v Htmg. Phan, I .:• ChOng. U Thi Thanh .A/, 120191. Md hinh l„w da Ihllc nhi^n mi>c phdn lich qnwi dtnh dt ctrcd nhdn cda \ til .\am. 3l J J.-" .= Tap chi Phdl tnit, Kl,„a hoc va Cong nghe - Ktnh le- Ludl vd QndnK.
.' Phan Dinhi.' ^,„Wn Viel Thdnh :".>-, Cdc .en Id W md dni, htfdng din mi ro lin dnng: Tntimg hen cdc n;d,: hattc thtl.m, mot cdphan «,hOu nhd m0c dHot. Giang. 4SD. Irang 104-111. Tap chi Khoo hoc Trudng Bai
/ici Can Thtf. "
6. Chu Th, Thu.d Ijni ra^ 12V16 ,k,:J ndng ting phd ctio ngtcdi ddn vdi Hnh hinh mu benh Irong hoal ddng mn ZleldmZZ^" " ^ ^ """^ " ' ' ''""" ' " " * ' " " ""'• T'>P^I"f^l'"- life vd Cong
l,-:':"!^^A0':^J'^,a"''''""'' '''"' """' "'" ''""''""' '^ """ " "" """" " '" "" '*"'•" "S'^tP
- Pa, • lung Chm and Cn.n^Hno Yt^ ,2tjll,^ .W.-.".^>. tnt.ved logu model approach lo anal.-ze China-, Iravel tnsarance decisttm - m.Mnj behavior. \oL 14 \o.6. pp 1057-1066. J„„mal ofSlaltma an,' ' I 'niZtttZl S w ™ ,
144 S o l -Thdng 1/2020
QUAN IR!-QUANIV
y RiiluirdTay. Jaisung Choi. Lina Kattaii. Amjad Khan (2011), .4 multinomial logit mc}del of pedestrian - cmsh sn erity; vol 5. Issue 4, International Journal of sustainable transportation.
10. Richard Williams (2018), Muliinomial Logn Models. Ovf njeit, University of Notre Dame.
Ngdy nh^n bai: 3/12/2019
Ngay phan bi^n danh gia va sufa chiJa: 13/12/2019 Ngay cha'p nh^n dang bai: 23/12/2019 Tiidng lin tde gid:
TS. PHAN DI$U HUONG
\ i^n Kinh t&'va Quan ly, Trffffng Dai hpc Bach khoa Ha Npi
RESEARCH ON THE POSSIBU.ITIES OF CHOOSING ENERGY SAVING DEVICES AFTER THE INCREASE
IN ELECTRICITY PRICE
• PhD. PHAN DIEU HUONG School of Economics and Manogement, iHanoi University Science and Technology
ABSTRACT:
Cpnsumer behaviour has changed after the increase in electricity price on March 20, 2019. The increase has changed the way how people use electricity and hovi' they are more likely to choose energy saving devices. The Multinomial Logit Choice Model is applied in this research to determine how consumers change their choices in energy saving devices after 6 months of the increase in electricity price. The samples were collected in Hoang Mai and Dong Da districts, Hanoi City.
Keywords: Choice possibility, energy saving, multinomial logit, Hoang Mai district, Dong Da disctrict, Hanoi.
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