ANH HirONG CUA THUE GIA TRI GIA TANG
DEN QUY MO CHINH PHU VA CHI D A U T U PHAT TRIEN TAI CONG HOA DOMINICA
Nguyen Nggc Hung * TOM TAT
Muc tieu ciia bai vilt la nghien ciru su anh hudng thul gia trj gia tang den quy md chinh phu (dai dien bdi chi thudng xuyen) va chi ddu tu phat triln tai Cdng hda Dominica. Dua tren sd lieu thu thap tir Ngan hang Thi gidi tai Cong hda Dominica tii 1972 - 2015, tac gia xay dung md hinh nghien cuu anh hudng cua thul gia trj gia tang din quy md chinh phii va chi ddu tu phat triln tren dir lieu chudi thdng qua phuang phap tu hdi quy va phan phdi tri ARDL dl xem xet tac ddng trong ngdn han va dai ban cua thul gia tri gia tang. Kit qua nghien cuu cho thdy, ca trong ngdn ban va dai ban thi thul gia trj gia tang cd tac ddng ngugc chieu den ty le chi dau tu phat trien.
Tic khoa: Thui gia tri gia tdng, quy mo chinh phu, chi ddu tuphdt trien, Cgng hda Dominica.
ABSTRACT
The objective of the paper is to study the effect of value added tax on the scale of the current govemment and govemment's construction expenses in Dominica Republic. Research hypotheses were built up by studying the effect of value added tax on the size of current govemment (in the form of current cost to gross domestic product (GDP)) and the size of government's construction expenses (in the form of construction cost to GDP). In this regard, seasonal time-series statistic within the period of 1972-2015 in Dominica Republic applied through using ARDL model. The results show that value added tax has a negative effect on the ratio of construction cost to GDP
1. Dat van de:
Cac hoat dgng ciia ehinh phu anh hudng tryc tiep den chat lugng eugc song va hieu qua hoat dong cua cae chu the trong nin kinh tl. D l dap ung nhu cau chi tieu cua chinh phu, mgt trong so nguon thu on djnh va chilm ty trgng ldn la thu tu" thue, trong do thul gia trj gia tang cd quan he vdi chi thudng xuyen va chi ddu tu phat trien. Chi thudng xuyen bao gom chi eho cac don vj sy nghiep, chi cho cae boat dgng quan ly nha nudc, ehi cho hoat dgng an ninh, quoc phong va trat ty an toan xa hgi. Cae hoat dgng nay diu gdn tryc tilp vdi nguon thu thul gia trj gia tang, lam tang so thu thul gia trj gia tang cua chinh phii thong
qua cac hoat dgng tieu dung ciia cac don vj nha nudc, sy nghiep. Ngoai ra, chi dau tu phat trien cung c6 anh hudng den nguon thu thul gia trj gia tang. Hoat dgng giao thuang mua ban se dien ra hieu qua ca ve so lugng lan chat lugng vdi mgt he thdng co sd ha tang dam bao va ngay cang hoan thien. He thong co so ha tdng la dieu kien tien quyet va quyet djnh quan trong den su phat trien cua nen kinh t l a mgt quoc gia. Do dd, viec nghien cuu moi quan he giua thue gia trj gia tang va quy mo chinh phu (dai dien bdi chi thudng xuyen) va chi ddu tu la vo cung can thiet.
KINH TE, TAI CHINH, QUAN TRI KINH DOANH
2. Co SO' ly thuyet va cac nghien ciru lien quan din de tai.
2.1. Ca s& ly thuyet.
- Ly thuyet cong dan: quy mo chinh phii tang len dya vao nhu cau eiia ngudi dan
Mgt trong nhQ-ng ly thuyet tang trudng cua chinh phil lau ddi nhat la ly thuyet tang trudng cua Wagner nhan manh tang truang kinh tl la yeu to quyet djnh co ban den tang trudng khu vyc cong. Ong da phan tich so lieu chi tieu cua mgt so nudc phat trien va cho rang ty trgng khu vyc cong trong GDP co xu hudng tang len. Cac ket qua thu dugc tir nghien cuu cua Wagner nhu sau: Dau tien, ong nhan thay rang tang truong kinh te doi hoi phai co co so ha tang phu hgp. Thu hai, viec phat trien do thj hoa doi hoi phai tang chi tieu cua chinh phu. Cuoi ciing, ong ket luan rang tang truang khu vyc cong se ldn hon khi thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi thuc te tang len.
Ben canh do, ly thuyet ciia Meltzer va Richard (1983) xem xet quy mo chinh phu theo mgt khia canh khac tren quan dilm chinh phu chu yeu tap trung vao viec phan bo tai san va thu nhap mgt each cong bdng. Ly thuylt ciia Meltzer ham y rang quy mo cua chinh phu phu thugc vao moi quan he giu'a thu nhap trung binh vdi thu nhap cua cu tri quyet djnh. Vdi quyen bau cu pho thong va da so, cu tri trung gian la cu tri quylt djnh nhu Roberts (1977) da dua ra.
Cac nghien cuu ve phan phoi thu nhap cho thay nhiing cu tri nao co thu nhap thap hon thu nhap trung binh se khuyen khich viec tai phan phoi lai thu nhap de dam bao can bang thong qua mgt thue suat cao hon. Ngoai ra viec ma rgng nhugng quyen thuang mai doi vai nhieu cir tri CO thu nhap duoi muc trung binh co nghTa la tang thu nhap de tai phan phdi, va do do tang quy mo chinh phQ.
Vi vay vai mgt muc thul sudt cao hon, vua lam tang chi tieu cho khu vyc cong, phan anh sy tang trudng cua chinh phu. Tur dd tac gia dua ra gia thuyet thu-1: Thul gia trj gia tang lam tang ty le chi thudng xuyen cua Chinh phu so vdi GDP
- Ly thuyet lya chon c6ng:_tap trung vao cac uu dai eua ehinh phu hon la cong dan.
Buchanan (1976) la cha de ciia ly thuyet lya chgn cong da dat giai Nobel kinh te nam 1986. Cac nha kinh te hgc ve sy lya chgn cong cho rang, dgng co chinh cua nhiing nguai hoat dgng tren thj truong chinh trj, du la cu tri, chinh trj gia, hay quan ehiic... deu la lgi ich ca nhan.
Hg hy vgng lam lgi cho chinh minh chu ehang bao gid mang din viec tra thanh nhOrng nha quan ly cong cgng thanh thien. Bunachan chi ra rang, sy can thiep cua chinh phu vao nen kinh te CO hgp ly hay khong phu thugc vao viec cac quan chuc bj thuc day bai lgi ich ca nhan hay bai lgi ich xa hgi. Trong qua khu, nhieu nha kinh te da lap luan rang each de kim ham "that bai tren thj truang" nhu dgc quyen la dua ra hanh dgng khac phyc ciia chinh phu. Nhung Buchanan ehi ra rang cung co khai niem ve
"thdt bai ciia chinh phii" Do la, co nhung ly do tai sao can thiep ciia chinh phii khong dat dugc hieu qua mong muon.
Cac nha kinh te hgc ve sy lya chgn cong cgng cung xem xet cac hanh dgng cua cac nha lap phap. Mac du cac nha lap phap dy kien se theo dudi "Igi ich cong cgng" nhung hg se quylt djnh six dung cac nguon lyc cua ngudi khac, chu khong phai la cua rieng hg. Ngudi nop thue la ngudi phai cung cap cac nguon lyc nay va se la nhQ^ng nhiing ngudi bj thiet hai khi cac nguon lyc dugc su dung khong hieu qua theo cac quy djnh cho du hg cd muon hay khong. Ly thuyet lya chgn cong dugc coi la mgt nhanh kinh te bao thu, cho rang viec can thiep ciia Chinh phii co the khong hieu qua, trai ngugc vdi ly thuyet cua cha de kinh te hgc vT mo, John Maynard Keynes, khi Keynes cho rang Chinh phii co the sQ-a chiia cac that bai cua thj trudng mgt each hieu qua. Hon niia, Buchanan cho rang neu chi tieu Chinh phii dugc thyc hien tu cap dja phuang thi se hieu qua hon. Ngudi dan co the giam sat viec chi tieu ciia chinh quyen dia phuong hieu qua, chinh xac hon. Hg cung co the gay ap lyc den chinh quyen dja phuong bang each "bo phieu bang chan", tao ra sy canh tranh giiia cac dja
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phuong, tu dd hieu qua ciia viee ehi tieu dugc cai thien, nang eao ddi song ngudi dan.
Nhu vay theo ly thuylt lua ehgn cong, viec chi tieu ciia Chinh phu ed thi khong hieu qua do lgi ieh ea nhan gay ra. Do dd tac gia de xuat gia thuyet thir 2: Thul gia trj gia tang lam giam ty le chi ddu tu phat trien ciia Chinh phii so vdi GDP
2.2. Cdc nghien cieu tru&c day lien quan den de tdi
Nghien eiiu eiia Mohammadiyan, F., Amade, H., va Shakeri, A. (2013) da nghieri cuu, gidi thieu va thu nghiem mo hinh mdi de giai thich quy mo chinh phii. Bai nghien cuu sir dung cac bien cau, cung va cac bien khac, trinh bay mgt mo hinh khai niem va uac lugng thuc nghiem cho 103 quoc gia dugc chgn. Ket qud la thu nhap binh quan ddu nguai, bat binh ddng va ty le do thj hoa cua cac biln so cdu co anh hudng lan lugt la ngugc chiSu, ciing chieu va cung chieu va co y nghTa quan trgng doi vdi quy mo ciia chinh phii. Doi vdi cac bien so cung ciia nen kinh te, cac loai thue gian thu cd tac dgng cung chieu va anh hudng dang ke den quy mo cua chinh phu. Trong cac yeu to khac (cac yeu td khac ngoai cung va eau), ba bien ty le do tuoi cua dan so, muc do md eua nen kinh te va ty le ve sy tham gia eua phu nQ- vao thj trudng lao dgng deu cd tac dgng cung chieu va cd y nghTa den quy md cua ehinh phu.
Dadgar, Y., Nazari, R., va Seyami araghi, I. (2013) nghien cuu thue toi uu va chinh phu toi uu trong nen kinh te khu vyc cong
& phuong trinh thue va phuong trinh vl edu triic eua chinh phu d Iran. Su dung 2 ylu t6 la ty le tieu dung tren GDP va ty I? thul tren GDP, them vao do la sy phan tieh cdu triic cua thul va cdu triic eua chinh phu. Kit qua la quy mo ciia chinh phu toi uu dya tren chi so chi tieu ciia chinh phu tren GDP vugt qua muc tdi uu va trong khi ngudn thu tir thul thi lai dudi muc tdi u-u. Sy ylu kem trong viec dilu hanh ddt nude la gdc re trong cdu triic ehinh phii. Do do, viec thilt lap quy mo ehinh phu tdi uu lupn nhdt
Dac biet gan day nhat, nghien cuu cua Mohammad Alizadeh (2016) nghien cuu mdi quan he giiia thue gia trj gia tang va quy mo chinh phii, dai dien bai ehi thudng xuyen va ehi ddu tu phat trien tai Iran. Ket qua nghien cuu eho thay rang ton tai moi quan he dong bien va ed y nghTa ea trong ngan han va dai han giua thul gia trj gia tang den quy mo chinh phu va ehi ddu tu phat trien. Trong do he so tac dgng cua thul gia trj gia tang den chi thudng xuyen la thdp, he so tac dgng din chi dau tu phat trien la cao, cho thdy thul gia trj gia tang khong dugc dung cho giao due va y tl mac du day la muc tieu ciia viec thu thul, chii ylu dung dk ddu tu xay dyng. Bai nghidn ciru kien nghi nen xay dyng mgt hf thong thue ty dgng bdo cdo, minh bach cao han de gidm gdnh nang thul gia tri gia tang. Chinh phii nen chi nhilu han cho phiic lgi, y te va giao due de gidm ngheo va cai thien phue lgi cho nhu'ng nguai co thu nhap thdp.
3. Phu-ong phap, du* lieu v^ mo hinh nghien ciru.
3.1. Phuomg phdp vd die lieu nghien cieu.
Bai nghien cuu sir dung phuang phap tu hoi quy va phan phdi tri (Auto Regressive Distributed Lag ARDL) cua Pesaran va cong su- (1997). Cach tiep can nay cd nhieu cai tien so vdi cac phuong phap trudc day.
Y>\x lieu nghien cuu dugc thu thap tu du lieu cua Ngan hang Thi gidi WorldBank (https://data.worldbank.org/), tai Cgng hda Dominica, tu nam 1972 den nam 2015.
3.2. Mo hinh nghien cim.
Dya theo mo hinh bai nghien cuu goc ciia M. Alizadeh va M. Motallabi (2016) nghien cuu tac dgng ciia thul gia trj gia tang din quy mo chinh phii va chi ddu tu phat triln, tac gia de xuat mo hinh nghien cuu nhu sau:
M6hinhl:LCG = f(LVAT) Mo hinh 2: LDG = f(LVAT) Vdi:
KINH TE, TAI CHINH, QUAN TRI KINH DOANH
LDG: logarit cua ehi so ehi dau tu phat triln/GDP
LVAT: logarit eua thue gia trj gia tang Trinh ty thyc hien nghien eiiu nhu sau:
Thir nhat, kiem djnh tinh du'ng eiia chuoi du lieu bang phuang phap kiem djnh nghiem don vj Dicky va Fuller (1981).
Thir hai, kiem djnh duang bao (Bound test) theo phuang phap cua Pesaran (1997) xac djnh dong lien kit giiia cac biln, tuc la xem xet co ton tai mdi quan he dai han giiia cac biln hay khong.
Thii" ba, chay mo hinh ARDL vai cac dg tri tdi uu dugc xac djnh tu dong theo tieu chuan AIC de kiem dinh moi quan he dai han giua cac bien trong mo hinh.
Thii' tu", tinh tac dgng ngdn han ciia cac biln bai mo hinh hieu chinh sai so (ECM) dya tren each tilp can ARDL doi vai dong lien kit.
Thir nam, kilm dinh mo hinh theo cac ylu tl:
Kiem djnh ty tuong quan bae 1: phuong phap Durbin-Watson (1950) vdi gia thuylt:
HO: Mo hinh cd ty tuong quan bac 1.
Kiem djnh ty tuong quan bac cao:
phuong phap Breusch-Godfrey (1978) vdi gia thuyet HO: Mo hinh cd ty tuong quan.
Kilm dmh phuang sai thay ddi: phuang phap Breusch-Pagan (1979) vdi gia thuylt HO:
Mo hinh bj phuang sai thay doi.
Kilm djnh dang sai cua mo hinh: phuang phap kilm dinh RESET ciia Ramsey (1968) vai HO: Mo hinh khong phu hgp.
Kilm dinh da cgng tuyin: kilm dinh he s6 VIF vdri gia thuyet VIF>10 thi mo hinh bj da cgng tuyin,
- Kilm tra sy 6n dinh ciia mo hinh: sir dung cac tieu chudn ciia CUSUM (cumulative sum of recurvive residuals) va CUSUMSQ (cumulative sum of squares of recurvive residuals).
- Kilm djnh tinh dung cua phdn du.
4. Ket qua nghien ciru 4.1. Kiem dinh tinh dieng.
Bang 1 - Kiem dinh nghiem don vi ADF - Dominica Bien
LVAT_DOM LCG_DOM LDG_DOM A LVAT_DOM A LCG_DOM
Thdng ke t -0.579 -1.623 -2.776 -4.958 -4.612
p-value 0.8756 0.4713 0.0618 0.0000 0.0001
Ket luan Chudi khdng dung Chuoi khdng dirng
Chudi dimg Chudi dimg Chudi dung
Bac durng
1(0) 1(1) 1(1)
Kit qua kilm djnh cho thdy biln chi ddu tu phat triln tren GDP diing d bac 0, hai biln gia trj gia tang va ty le chi thudng xuyen tren GDP khong dimg d bac 0 ma dung d bac 1.
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4.2. Kiim dinh du&ng hao (Bound test)
4.2.1. Md hinh 1: thul gia tri gia tang va tv le ehi thudng xuyen tren GDP Bang 2 - Kiem djnh du-crng bao Mo hinh 1 - Dominica
So bac K
1
Gia tri thing ke F F-statistic
16.883
Gia tri toi ban ciia cac duong bao 90%
1(0) 4.04
1(1) 4.78
95%
1(0) 4.94
1(1) 5.73
97.5%
1(0) 5.77
1(1) 6.68
99%
1(0) 6.84
1(1)
7.84 Gia trj F bdng 16.883 ldn hon gia trj gidi han duang bao tren (7.84 ung vai muc y nghTa 1%).
Nhu vay cd sy ton tai moi quan he dong lien kit trong dai han giQ-a thue gia tri gia tang va ty le ehi thudng xuyen tren GDP d md hinh 1 tai Dominica.
4.2.2. Md hinh 2: thul gia tri gia tang va tv le chi dau tu phat trien tren GDP Bang 3 - Kiem dinh dircrng bao Mo hinh 2 - Dominca
So bac K
1
Gia tri thing ke F F-statistic
5.074
Gia tri toi ban cua cac dircrng bao 90%
1(0) 4.04
1(1) 4.78
95%
1(0) 4.94
1(1) 5.73
97.5%
1(0) 5.77
1(1) 6.68
99%
1(0) 6.84
1(1)
7.84 Gia trj F bdng 5.074 ldn hon gia trj gidi han dudng bao tren (4.78 ling vdi mure y nghia 10%).
Nhu vay cd sy tdn tai mdi quan he ddng lien kit giQ'a thul gia trj gia tang va ty le chi ddu tu phat triln tren GDP d md hinh 2 tai Dominica.
4.3. Kit qud tde dong trong dai hgn
Bang 4 - Ket qua tac dong dai han Dominica
Mo hinh Bien
LCG LDG
He so tac dong dai han
0.0220
-0.6166
p-value 0.899 0.064 Ket qua mo hinh cho thdy trong dai ban,
thul gia trj gia tang ed anh hudng dang kl din biln ty le ehi ddu tu phat triln tren GDP d Dominica. Trong khi do thul gia trj gia tang co
tac dgng cung chilu din biln ty le chi thudng xuyen tren GDP nhung kit qua khong co y nghTa thdng ke. Kit qua nay ling hg gia thuylt 2 nhung khong co bdng chirng dk ling hg gia thuylt
KINH TE, TAI CHINH, QUAN TRI KINH DOANH
4.4. Kit qud tdc Kit qud tdc dong ngdn hgn
Bang 5 - Ket qua tac dong ngdn han - Dominica
Bien Z,CG_DOMt_i LDG_DOMt.i
LVAT_DOMt ALCG_DOMt-t
Cons ECt-i
Mo hinh 1 {MCG_DOMt) -0.8692***
0.0191 0.2634*
-0.0076 -0.8692***
Mo hinh 2 {MDG_DOMt)
-0.4250***
-0.2621*
0.5801***
-0.4250***
M6 hinh I: ket qua cho thay ca trong ngan han va dai ban, thue gia trj gia tang deu cd tae dgng cung chieu den ty le chi thuang xuyen tren GDP nhung khong co y nghTa. Do do khong cd bang chung de bac bo gia thuyet I.
Mo hinh 2: kit qua cho thay ca trong ngdn ban va dai han thi thue gia trj gia tang deu co tae dgng ngugc chieu va co y nghTa thong ke den ty le chi ddu tu phat trien tren GDP Kit qua nay ung hg cho gia thuyet 2.
4.5. Kiem dinh mo hinh
- Kilm djnh ty tuong quan bac I: Kit qua kilm djnh Durbin-Watson cho thdy ca mo hinh
I va mo hinh 2 diu khong cd ty tuong quan bac I.
- Kilm djnh ty tuong quan bac cao: Ket qua kilm djnh Breusch-Godfrey cho thay ea mo hinh 1 va mo hinh 2 deu khong co hien tugng ty tuong quan a bac cao.
- Kilm djnh dang sai cua mo hinh: Ket qua kiem djnh RESET cua Ramsey eho thay ea mo hinh 1 va mo hinh 2 deu la mo hinh phii hgp.
- Kilm djnh da cgng tuyen : Ket qua kiem djnh da cgng tuyin cho thay gia trj VIF deu nho hon 10, do do ea mo hinh 1 va mo hinh 2 diu khong ed hien tugng da cong tuyin.
Kilm djnh CUSUM (cumulative sum of recurvive residuals) va CUSUMSQ (cumulative sum of squares of recurvive residuals): Kit qua kilm djnh CUSUM va CUSUMSQ cho thdy bilu dd deu nam trong gioi han bien nen mo hinh 1 va mo hinh 2 cd tinh on djnh.
- Kilm djnh tinh dirng cua phan du: Ket qua kilm djnh tinh dimg cua phan du cho thdy phdn du cua mo hinh 1 va mo hinh 2 deu dung.
Dilu do cho thdy ca hai mo hinh deu hieu qua.
5. Ket luan va khuyen nghi 5.1. Ket luan:
Dya tren kit qua hdi quy ARDL eho thay, giu'a thul gia trj gia tang va ty le chi ddu tu phat triln tren GDP tdn tai mgt moi quan he nguge chilu, ea trong ngan ban va dai ban tai Cgng hoa Dominica. Do vay, chiing ta khong ky vgng khi tang thu thul gia trj gia tang se giiip tang chi ddu tu phat triln, cai thien co so ha tang, thuc day phat triln kinh tl xa hgi. Day la vdn do. da dugc neu len trong ly thuyet lya chgn cong cua Buchanan (1976) khi cae boat dgng ciia Chinh phii bj chi phoi bdi lgi ich ca nhan.
Day la vdn de vo ciing nghiem trong ma eae quoc gia dang phat trien dang phai doi mat.
Chinh vi thi, trong trudng hgp bat buoc phai tang nguon thu tu- thue gia trj gia tang thi dong thdi phai tang cudng cong tae quan ly va sir dung nguon lyc eua Nha nude mgt each hieu
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qua, tranh hien tugng tham 6, lang phi, sir dung sai mue dieh, thilu hieu qua.
5.2. Khuyen nghi:
Qua kit qua eiia nghien ciru neu tren, tac gia dl xudt khuyin nghj cho Cgng hoa Dominica ndi rieng va eae nudc dang phat trien ndi ehung, edn tang cuang viee thanh tra giam sat eac co quan Nha nuoc trong viec sir dung va phan phdi eae nguon lyc ciia xa hgi mgt each tilt kiem, ed hieu qua, tranh tinh trang tham nhung, lgi ich nhdm gay that thoat, thiet hai cho nin kinh tl quoe gia. Ddi vdi chi tieu cong phai dam bao cac nguyen tac tap trung dan ehu, cong khai minh bach va hieu qua.
Ci Viet Nam hien nay, mac du miic thul suat gia trj gia tang van chua qua eao so vdi cae nude trong khu vyc, nhung vdi lg trinh tang thue suat thue gia trj gia tang ma Bg Tai ehinh dua ra, Quoe hgi can can nhac ky van de nay.
v l phia Chinh phu, can tang cudng co ehl kilm tra giam sat hieu qua viec sir dyng cac nguon lyc cua Nha nuac la rat quan trgng. Viec tang thue ma khong kiem soat chi hieu qua se ddn din eac tinh trang chi sai muc dich, lang phi khong hieu qua, gay thiet hai ldn eho toan bo nen kinh te
KINH TE, TAI C H I N H , QUAN TRI KINH DOANH
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. Abbasi, H. and Gowdarzi farahani, Y., 2013. Applied econometric by Eviewes and Microfit. \^ edition. Noor e-Elm publication, Tehran.
2. Alizadeh, M, 2016. "Studying the effect of value added tax on the size of current government and construction governmenf. Procedia Economics and Finance, 336-344.
3. Buchanan J, 1967. Public Finance in Democratic Processes. Chapel Hill. NC: University of North Carolina Press.
4. Dadgar, 2013. Public sector economy, y^ edition. Mofid University publication, Qom.
Dadgar, Y., Nazari, R., va Seyami araghi, 1. ,2013. Govemment and optimized tax in public sector economy and function of govemment and tax in Iran. Journal of Applied economic studies, 5, 1 -29.
5. Hojabr kiyani, K. et al., 2012. Estimation of optimized value added tax rate in Iran; a function of Diamond-Mirles model. Journal of economic research, 47 (2), 61 -79.
6. Meltzer, and Richard S., 1983. Test of Rationality Theory of the Size of government.
Carnegie Mellon University Press.
7. Mohammadiyan, F et al., 2013. Presenting and testing a new model of explaining government size. Economic research journal, 49, 117-150.
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