H$i P | 3 1^ v i TAI nguygn Moi truong Thiia Thicn H u i Hoi Oja ly Vigt Nam
LTng dung GIS va chudi Markov trong danh gia bi§n dong dat va dip bao dat do thj tai huyen Gia Lam - thanh pho l-ia No!
Duong Thj L^i', Lirong Thj Thu Hi£n^
Abstract
Application gis and markov chains in assessing changes about land and Torecast urban land al Gia Lam district - Hanoi capital
Urbanization is socio - economic process with many aspects, one of Us typical effect alter structure of land use, especially being strongly change of urban land. The study and analysis changes as well as forecast trend of urban land change keep an imporlanl role, help managers clearly understand Ihe situation of urban land development in local area. Since then, giving polities for effectively use.
Using GIS technology in assessing changes in land use associated wuh Markov chains lo predict the change of urban land use in a certain stage brings high effect, il is useful resource for management and sustainable developmeni planning. According lo research results, the author found that Gia Lam is the process of land use sirong changes, especially the rapid development of urban land . this is the profound impact lo process of socio-economic development in area. Therefore, Gia Lam district need have suitable policies to ensure effective use land resource
BAN DO HANH CHINH HUY|N GIA LAM 1. DAT VAN DE
Dat dai cd vai trd nen ting eho mpi boat ddng phat trien kinh te - xa hdi, nd la tu lieu sin xuat die biel la yeu td khdng the thieu trong qua trinh san xuat kinh doanh. Dien tich dat ndi chung va dit do thi noi rieng deu cd han. Ciing vdi qua trinh dd thj hoa viee sir dung dat dd thi ngay cang lang do nhu cau ve xay dyng co sd hg tang, khu dan cu do thj, xay dung co sd kinh te, khu cdng nghiep phuc vu cho phit trien do thi. Do vgy. viec sCr dyng dat mgt each tiet kiem hpp ly li mpl yeu cau cap thiet.
He thdng thdng tin dja ly GIS (Geographic Information System) la cdng cu manh va da dugc ung dung rdng rai trong nhieu Imh vuc nhu quin ly, kinh te, kT thuat, xa hdi, tii nguyen va mdi trudng.
GIS ngiy cang ddng vai trd quan trgng cac ung dvng luu trir, cap nhap dQ lieu, dinh gia bien dgng cia cac thinh phin lu nhien, dua ra cic giai phap hup ly. Su dung cdng nghe GIS k^t hgp vdi tinh toan bing chudi Markov gdp phin giai quyet eac bai toin mdt each toin dien va hieu qua han.
(^ JIA
' Khoa Dia ly - Dgi hgc supham Hd \'Si ' Cao ddng supham Thai Nguyen
BAO TAO DIA L V , PHU'ONG PHAP vA CONG NGHg NGHIEN CLTU DIA LY
H^i Dja ly vi Tai nguyen Moi Iruong Thira Thien Hue Hgi Dia ly Viel Nam
Gia Lam la huyen ngogi thanh, cua ngo phia ddng ciia thii do. Toin bp dia phgn cua Gia Lam i dupe sip nhip vao Hi Ndi vio nam I96L Vdi nhung uu dilm ndi bat ye vj tri dia ly, Gia Lam datig]
ngay cang thu hut manh me diu tu kinh te, ciing vdi do li qui trinh bien dgng sii dung dit mot each mgnh me. Dya tren dQ lieu hien cd ket hgp vdi edng ngh? GIS de dinh gia bien ddng dit va dy bio d^t dd thi d huyen Gia Lam nhim dua ra nhiJng lugn cir khoa hpc va co sd thuc tiln phuc vu cho vice phJt trien quy hoach lanh thd bSn virng.
2. NOI DUNG NGHIEN CXfXJ 2.L Khu vm: nghien ciru
a. Vj tri dia ly vd gidi hgn lanh tho
Huyen Gia Lam la cira ngo Ddng bic ciia Ha Ndi, nim trong viing giao thoa ciia van hoa Thing Long vi van hda Kinh Bac nen co nhieu di lich van hda, ljch sir cd gia trj. Phia Ddng vi Dong bic giap linh Bie Ninh, phia Nam vi Ddng nam giip tinh Hung Yen, phia Tsy ^ap quan Long Bieii vi quin Hoing Mai, phia Bic vi Tay bic giap h i ^ ^ Dong Anh.
Gia Lam cd dien tich la 114,79km^, dan so nam 2011 la 243.957 ngudi, bao gom cd 22danvi hanh chinh trong do cd 2 thj tran vi 20 xa,
b. Dieu ki^n tu nhten vd ldi nguyen thien
Huyen Gia Lam cd dieu ki^n ty nhien tuang ddi thugn lgi cho su phit triln kinh te. Dia hinh CLia huyen tuong ddi bang phang. chii yeu la dja hinh ddng bing vi bin son dia. Khi hau mang d^c trung ciia khi hau mien Bac nhiet ddi am gid miia cd miia ddng lgnh vdi nhiet do trung binh khoang 25°C, bi€n dp nhiet luong doi Idn, lugtig mua trung binh dgt khoang 1500mm/nam va ed sy phan miia rd ret. Tii nguyen nudc kha phong phu vdi nhieu con sdng Idn tieu bieu chiy qua nhu sdng Hong, sdng Dudng, sdng Ciu Bay, sdng Bac Hung Hai, song Thien Due, dem lai mgt ngudn nudc ddi dao.
Vi tri dia ly thuan lgi vi dieu kien tu nhien da dang da thuc day qui trinh phil trien kinh tc ciia huyen trong nhirng nam qua, lam cho ddi sdng vit chat vi tinh than cua ngudi dan dugc nang len ro ret.
c Dieu kien kinh le xd hgi
Huyen Gia Lam li noi tap trung cac cdng trinh dau mdi giao thdng vi ha tang ky thuat quan trpng CLU qudc gia va ciia thinh phd. Ben canh dd, day ciing la khu vyc phil trien cic ca sd cong nghiep quy mo, cic trung tim dich vu, thuong mai ldn, Toin huyen hien cd 3 sieu thi ldn, 17 chp, trong dd CO 13 chg quy md bin kien cd; co 890 doanh nghiep ngoai qudc doanh.
Tdng gii tri sin xuit cac nginh kinh tl chii ylu do Huyen quan ly tang 13,5%-14% (2011), trong CO cau kinh te nganh cdng nghiep - xay dyng chilm tren 50%. Huyen Gia Lam ciing la nai l3p trung nhieu ling nghe truyen thdng nhu Bat Trang (san xuat gom sir), Kieu Ky (dat bac, scm son ihep ving, do go), Ninh Hiep (trong va kinh doanh thu6c Bic, budn ban vai vdc)... Hien nay, thon Dinh Vy, xa Yen Thudng dang ndi len vdi mdt diem diu tu hip dan cita cac doanh nhan.
Ve van hoa - xa hpi: Trong 3 nam trd lgi diy, ddi sdng ciia ngudi dan huyen Gia LSni dirpc nang Ien mdt each ro ret. Nim 2011, ty Ie hp gia dinh dgt tieu ehuan gia dinh van hda tren 86°/'. " Is hp ngheo giim xudng chi cdn 2,3%, miic sinh giim xudng cdn 0,2%o, ti le tre dudi 5 tudi bj suy Jmh du&ng li 10,6%. Toan huyen cd 5 trudng dat trudng chuan qudc gia, chat lugng lao dgng cung ngiiy cing dugc nang cao vdi 35% li le Iao ddng da qua dio tgo.
2.2. Dir licu nghicn ciru
Ban do hanh chinh huyen Gia Lam
1020 Hdi nghi Khoa hgc Dia ly Todn qudc ldn thu 6, Thdnh phd Hui. 9/20h
ffi Pja 1;^ vi> Tai nguyen Moi trufrng Thira Thicn Hue Hpi Dja ly Vi^l Nam
Ban ddvlhien trang sir dung dit ciia huyen trong 2 nam li2005 va2010.
Ban do quy hoach sir dyng dat huy|n Gia Lam thai ki 2000 - 2020.
Cic tai lieu tham khao khic: giao trinh, bai bao khoa hgc, cae cdng trinh nghien cuu va cic xvebsite li€n quan.
3. PHU'ONG PHAP NGHIEN ClTU CHU YEU 3.1. Phinmg phap GIS
Day la phuang phap chinh dugc tic gii sir dung trong qua trinh nghien cuu dl lai. Viec su dung cic phan mem GIS giup eho viec phan tich, xir li trd nen nhanh chdng va chinh xac. Trong de lai, tic gii sir dung ddng thdi hai phin mim GIS chinh la Mapinfo vi ArcGIS dl xii ly du' lieu.
3.2. Phiromg phap toan hgc
Tic gii sir dyng chudi Markov de dy bio thay ddi su dung dat trong giai doan nao dd. Md hinh chudi Markov dugc ung dung de xac djnh khi nang thay ddi cac kieu sudgng dat dya tren su lien trien cic kieu su dyng dit va cac nhin td anh hudng din su thay ddi.
Tdng quit md hinh hda dugc minh hga nhu sau:
Ti 1| cac kifiu sir dung dat d thai
diem thi nhat
Ma trgn thay doi sir dung dit giiia thai dilm thii nhit vi thii hai
Ti l| cac kilu si dung dit d thdi diem thii hai
Cd the viet lai dudi dang tdng quit cua ma Iran nhu sau:
|AI,A2,A3,A4,A5]i
fu
f21 f31 lA\
f51 y l 2 r 2 2 T 3 2 Y 4 2 Y 5 2
T l 3 Y 2 3 Y 3 3
•y43 y53
r i 4 y24 1'34
•y44 7 54
y i 5 T 2 5 7 35 7 45 7 55
|Al,A2,A3,A4,A5|i
Trong dd: Al, A2, A3, A4, A5 la cac logi hinh sudung dat
y li xac suit thay ddi dugc xac djnh tu viec chdng ldp bin dd sii dung dat tai thdi diem khac nhau.
3,3. Phirtmg phap thtrc dfa
Vi?c thuc dia nhim muc dich chu yeu la thu thap tu Ii?u, nghien ciru, kiem nghiem ngoai thyc te, tim hiiu dac diem ty nhien, kinh te - xa hoi ciia mpt sd khu vuc quan trpng.
D A O T A G DIA LY; P H U O N G PHAP VA CONG NGHE NGHIEN CUU DJA LY
Hgi Pja 1^ va Tii nguyen Moi Irudng Thii'a Thien Hui HQi Dja ly Viet Nam ,
4. KET QUA NGHIEN ClTU
Vdi viec su dung cic phin mim GIS kit hgp vdi cac tai lieu thu thgp, quy trinh nghien cihi duoc thyc hien theo sa dd sau:
4 J . Thanh lap ban do hien trang sirdung dat
Cd nhieu cich de phan logi dat dai, tren ca sd can cu vio Luat dat dai nam 1993, tic gii ph3n chia dal lam 5 nhdm chinh bao gdm: dit ndng nghiep, dat Iam nghiep, dat dd thj, dat d nong thdn vi dat chua sir dung.
Die biet trgng nghien cdu cua minh tic gii lap trung vio loai dat do thj, Tai dieu 55, luat dat dai nam 1993 va dieu I nghj djnh 88/cp ngay 17/8/1994 ciia chinh phu vl quan ly dit dai dd thj c6 neu
" ddt do thi la ddt ndi thdnh, ndi thi xd ihi trdn dugc xdy dung nha d, Iru s& ca quan, to chuc, cdc ca sd sdn xudt kinh doanh, ca sa hg ldng phuc vy cho lai ich cdng cgng, quoc phong an ninh vd cdc muc dich khdc. Ddt ngogi thdnh ngogi thf xd da duac quy hogch dg ca quan Nhd nudc eg thdm quyen phe duyel de phdi trien do lhi cUng la dal do lhi vd duac sir dung nhu ddt do thj".
Dien tich cdc loai ddt huyen Gia Ldm
1
1 Dien tich (ha)\ T^\t(%) Dat nong
nghiep 9818,2 58,5
Dal lam nghiep
29,8 0,2
Ditdd tlii 5529,2
32,8 nam 2005
Dat o n6ng thon 1188,7
7,1
Dit chua sir dung 231,7
1,4
Cd the thay trong co cau su dung dat dat ndng nghiep van chiem ti le kha cao. Dat dd thi d inifc 32,9%, lgi thdi dilm 2005, phin Idn quy dit ciia huyen da dugc khai thic. Trong dd cd sy phan hoa ro net giira cac xa vl dien tich dit dd thj, diing dau danh sach dien tich dit dd thj li xi Ninh Hicp ( 732,iha), xa Trau Quy (610,0 ha), thip nhit li thj trin Yen Vien 50,9 ha, chu yeu li do long dicn n^b sir dung thip hon nhiing dia phuong khic.
Hgi nghi Khoa hoc Dia ly Todn qudc ldn lhu 6; Thdnh phd Hue. 9/21'' -
H81 P i a ly va Tai neuygn Moi tririmg Thira Thi£n Hue HQI Dia \j Vigt Nam
D£T Huvt H OIA uu. HJH m . B A N 1 ^ raCH TMMG SCTDVNG D X T I4UVEN W A L A M MU, M l .
Hi^n trang d^l d6 Iht Iheo c6c tS nam ZOOS
_BJLI,I1- I B i I
p '8 f 5
f 5 I 6 t |
i l l =>i I
Z)/en H'cA cdc logi ddt huyen Gia Ldm nam 2010
Difn tich (ha) TilefK;
Dit nong nghiep 8951,3 53,3
Dit lam nghiep '29,0
0,2
Dit do thi 6465,4
38,5
Dat d nong thon 1161,3
6,9
Dit chira sii dung 189,7 1,1 Tir nam 2005 - 2010, ca ciu sd dung dit da cd sy thay ddi, giim din li trgng cua dat nong nghiep, ndng thdn va dit chua su dung, tang din loai dit dd thj. Qui trinh niy phii hgp vdi qui trinh c6ng nghiep hda, do thj hda dang dien ra tren dia ban.
Sau 5 nam, di?n tich dit dd thj cua timg xa eung cd sy tang len dang ke, vi tri dien tich dat dd thj theo cac xa khdng cd nhieu thay doi, trong dd ndi bit la xa Trau Quy cd tdc dp tang khi nhanh dat 957,7 ha ( 2010), vuon len vj tri sd 1 v^ dien tich dit do thj, xa Ninh Hiep vin tiep tuc md rgng ve dat (Jothj giij-dvjtri sd2 vdi tren 861,3 ha.
DAO TAO DIA LY; PHU'ONG PHAP vA CONG NGHE NGHIEN CLOJ DIA LY
Hgi Dja IJ va Tai nguy£n Moi Iruong Thira Thien Hue Hpi Dja ly Viet Nam
lg d&i do th| Iheo ci
" o D D o n L l B , i l , L I I S I I I * i I S
a,a,Bialijj,o,fl.QJ,
I a I g I I 11 I I j
4.2, Thanh I$p ban do bicn dpng dat giai doan 200S - 2010
Dira vao diJ lieu hi?n trang sur dung dat 2 nam, tien hanli chdng x€p dir lieu trong Arcgis va thu dugc itit qua sau; Ma tran chuySn d6i cac loai dat giai doan 2005-2010 (dan vi: ha)
Chuyen doi HT 2005 Dat nong nghiep
Dat lam nghiep Dat do thi Dat a nong thon Dat chua sir dung Grand Total
HT 2010 DSt nong
nghiep 18.8232 0,0147 16 6501 0.4674 0.0918 36 0472
Dat lam nghiep 0.0084 0.1584 0 1888 0 0462 0 0 4018
Dat do thi 8.4305 0.1357 111.1308
2.8853 0.477 123,0593
Dat 6 nong thon
0.1582 0.0264 2.0604 4.18
0 6.425
Dat chua sij dung 0 0225
0 0.056
0 0.396 0.4745
Grand Total 27.4428
03352 130.0861
7.5789 0.9648 166.4078
Ka D , « « . h d i . n u n B n s l . . c p c h u ^ = n t o , i i n g d a . d o i h , B , i . < l o « , : 0 0 i - 2 0 l 0 400
350 300
150 51
n
1 : 1 1 ! f J J s 1 « 1 B 3 .| e '5'- i ? l i j j = i i i s .ii i . I J D i ^ i , ^ I I I o j ^
,-,-D,Da,
; 111 i 1
| | - , _ , - D D D _ O [ ] [ ] ,
S i t I ? I I ^
Ca c5u sir dung dat giai doan tCr 2005 - 2010 Co sir bi6n dgng ro ret. Trong do d^c biet la ^n tang len nhanh chong ciia loai dSt do thj. T6ng dien tich dat dirge chuy6n d6i sang dat do thj la 11,1^'
Hoi nghi Khoa hoc Dia ty Toan qudc ldn Ihir 6: ThdnhphdHui. 9/2012
Hgi Dja ly vi Tai nguyen Moi trufrng Thira Thign Hue H$i Dja ly Vigt Nam
ha. Trong dd phSn ldn chuyin tir dk ndng nghiep sang vdi 8,43 ha dit dugc chuyin doi va tir dat d nong thdn cd 2,89 ha. Mdt phan nhd dll lam nghiep va dll chua sir dyng cung dugc chuyen ddi sang dat dd thi.
Dien tich dat ndng nghiep bj chuyen ddi sang dat do thi ro ret nhat d hai huyen Trau Quy ( 376ha), Ninh Hi?p (27Iha), diy ddng thdi cung la hai dja ban cd tdc do phat triln dd thj hda vao loai cao nhat trong huyen.
Dien tich dat d ndng thdn ciing cd su chuyen ddi manh me trong eac xa, dac biet la xa Trung MSii dien lich dat d ndng thdn chuyen ddi sang dat do thj 44 ha, thir hai la xa Phu Thi vdi 25ha.
Ca cau sd dung cac loai dat ca sir thay ddi trong hai nam, trong do dang dien ra xu humig giam dan ti trong cua d§i nong nghi$p, dSt d ndng thdn, lang dan ti trong dat d dd thi tang tir 32,8% ( 2005) len 53,3% (2010).
4.3. Dir bao bien dong dat dd thi
De du bao bien ddng dat dd lhi dua vao ti le bien dgng dat dd thi do chuyen tir cac Ioai hinh sir dyng dat khac sang va nguac l?i. Tren ca sd ban dd hien trpng va ma trSn chuyin ddi, ta xac dinh dugc ti le chuyen doi nhu sau:
0,69 0 04 0 1 3 0.06 0.10
0.00 0.47 0,00 0.01 0.00
0 3 1 0.40 0.85 0.38 0.49
0.01 0.08 0.02 0.55 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.41
Ap dung cdng thuc chudi Markov, ta thu dugc ket qua du bao hien Irang cac loai dal nam 2015 nhu sau:
Tuang ty nhu vay, neu mudn dy bao loc dg phat trien dat dd thj cua cac nam tiep theo ta lay cac n5m sau nhan tiep vdi ma Iran ti le chuyen ddi tren.
DaiNN
8951,3 DitLN
29,0 Di\ At thi
6465,4 Dk d NT
1161,3 Dat chua j
SD 189,7
0.69 0.04 0.13 0.06 0 10
0.00 0.47 0.00 O.OI
ooo
0.31 0 40 o.ss 0.38 0 49
0.01 0 08 0,02 0.55 0.00
0.00 0.00 0 00 0.00 0.41
1 DjtNN 7106,7
DStLN 25,2
D&dethi 8816,7
DStoNT 859,9
oat chua SD 77.S
Du bdo tdc do phdt tnen cdc logi ddt den ndm 2020 (dan vi: ha) Nam j D^t nong nghiep
2005 9818,2 2010 8951,3 2015 7106,7 2020 1 6110,2
Dat lam nghiep 29,8 29,0 25,2 20,4
bat dd thi 5529,2 6465,4 8816,7 10066,0
Dit Cf nong ihon 1188,7 1161,3 859,9 722,4
Dat chua sir dung 1 231,7 189,7 77,8 31,9
DAO TAO DIA LY, PHUONG PHAP VA CONG NGHE NGHIEN CLTU DIA LY
H$i Bja ly v^ Tki nguyen Moi trirdng Thiira Thl£n Hue HQi Dja iy Vigt Ngp
Dua vao kit qua du bao, cd thi thay r^ng tdc dg phat triln dat dd thj giai do?n 2005 - 2020 diln ra rat manh chu yeu do chuyin tii d4t ndng nghi?p va dat d ndng thdn. Quy dat chua su dyng se dugc khai thac triet dl trong nhirng thdi gian tilp theo.
Theo nhu kit qua phan tich dua vao ban do bien ddng dat nam 2005 - 2010, cd thi nh^n thay rSng toe do phat triln dd thj tap trung d khu vuc thi Iran Yen Vien ( giap quoc lg 1), phia Ddng xa L^ Chi, x3 Trau Quy.
Ki:T LU^N
Theo nhu kit qua phan tich cd the thay tdc dp phat triln dd thj tap trung nhieu d khu vuc dgc quoc lg 1 va cac khu vuc ranh gidi vdi khu dan cu, ciing vdi dd dang diln ra qua trinh lan rgng sang ca dia ban trudc day la IhuSn ndng.
Can cd chinh sach quy hoach cu thi cac khu vuc dugc phep chuyin ddi sang dat do thj dl dam bao su phat triln ben virng, tranh tinh trang su dyng lanh phi va quy hoach va sii dung trai phep dat dai.
Viee sti dung GIS mang lai hieu qua kha cao, cho phep nh^n thirc mgt each djnh lugng cu Ihl sy biln ddng vl cac Ioai hinh sii' dung dSt dang dien ra, dac biet la d4t do thj d huy^n Gia LSm. Qua trinh phat trien dll dd thi chiu tac ddng cua nhilu ylu Id. Viec sir dyng ma tr§n chudi Markov de dy bao loc do phat triln dSl dd thj se dat hieu qua cao trong dilu kien nhiing quy ho?ich va chinh sdch phap lu^t vl dat ndi chung va dat dd thi ndi rieng cd tinh ben vu'ng.
LCn CAM OfN
Bai bao dugc hinh thanh vdi su trg giup vl thiet bj ciia Dy kn Gido dye Dai hgc II - TRIG.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. Nguyin Ngpc Thach (2007). Gido trinh He thdng thong lin dfa ly. NXB DHKHTN - DH Quic gia H^ NQI 2. Vfl Anh Tuan (2003). Nghien cuu bien dgng hi^n trgng su dung ddt vd dnh hudng ciia nd Idi luu vuc sdng
Trd Khuc bang phuang phdp vien thdm vd GIS. Luan an tien sy.
3. Vu Minh TuSn, LS VSn Trung, 2008. U'ng dung viin thdm vd GIS ddnh gid biin dgng vd du bdo ddt do thj lgi phudng Hiep Binh Phudc qugn Thii Dire.
4. Luat dit dai 1993 vk Nghi dinh 88 /cp cua thu tudng chinh phii ngdy 17/8/1994.
1026 Hdi nghi Khoa hgc Dja ly Toan qudc ldn thu 6; Thdnh phd Hui, 9/2012
