l^iajy. Diu clu'il vg Dia vai ly Bien
DANII GIA TICII HOP MUC DO TON TIIl/ONG VUNG BIEN VEN UO VIET NAM N H A M QUAN LY, SLf DUNG IlOl* LY TAI NGUYEN, MOI TRUONG VA
PHAT T R I £ N B E N VUNG
Mai Trong Nhurin. Nguyen Thi Hoang Ha, Tran Dang Quy, Nguyen Thj Hdng Hue, Le Thi Thu Hien, Luu Viet Dung, Hoang Van Tuan, Pham Minh Quyen, Tran Thi Lua, Nguyen Ho Que, Le Thi Nga, Nguy£n Thiiy Linh, Vu Thj Thu Thiiy, Pham Thi
Tuyet, Nguyen Thi Hong Lieu, Nguyen Hda Binh Dai hgc Qude Gia 1 la Ndi 144 Xuan Thiiy - Can Giay - Ha Ndi
Email: [email protected] Tom tat:
Viing bien ven bd Viet Nam cd vi tri quan Irong trong phdt trien kinh te - xu hdi vd huo vc' chu c/uyen liinh thd Tuy nhien, ddy ciing Id khu vuc chiu ic'ic dewg ciia nhieu loui tai hien vd dp luc lir cdc hogt ddng nhdn sinh ldm gia ldng miic do Idn Ihuang Idi nguyen. mdi trudng. Do do. nghien ciru chir/c thuc hii}n nhdm ddnh gid lich herp mirc de) tdn thuang ldi nguyen, mdi Irudng viing biiin ven be/
I 'let Nam Tren ca sir nghien ciru cde yeu Id gdy ldn thirang (cc'ic lai bien ddng ddt. do la. truot la xdi hr ba bien. bdi tu bien ddng ludng lach. d nhiem beri duu vu kim loai ngng. hdo. lu lui. ddng cao muc nird'c bien vd diHu kiiin lu nhien.
hogt ddng nhdn sinh cue'rng hdu lui biHn}. ddi tuang bi tdn thuang (tui nguyen ildl ngdp nirdc, ldi nguyen vi the, ky quan diu chdt. hoat ddng nhdn sinh) vu khd ndng itng phd ciia he ihdng tic nhien - xd hdi, viing bien ven bd Viet Nam dugc phdn chia thdnh 4 vi^ng (ly le 1:1 000.000) cd mirc do tdn thuang: thiip, tniiig binh. tuang doi cao vd cao. Ddy Id quy trinh ddnh gid lich hgp mirc do ton ihuang tdi nguyen, mdi truimg ldn ddu lien dugc xdy dung vd dp dung cho lodn vimg hien ven ba Viet Nam Ket qud nghien ciru cd y nghTa quan trgng trong xdy dung chinh sdch, chien luge bdo ve ldi nguySn. mdi truijng. gidm thieu lai bien vd phdl irien hen vung vung bien ven bd Vic-l Nam.
INTEGRATED VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF VIETNAM COASTAL AREA AND SCA FOR SUSTAINABLE NATURAL RESOURCES,
ENVIRONMENT USE AND DEVELOPMENT
Mill Trong Nhuan, Nguyen Thi Hoang Ha, Tran Dang Quy, Nguyen Thi Hong Hue, Lc Thi Thu Hicn, Luu Vict Dung, Hoang Van Tuan, Pham Minh Quyen, Tran Thi Lua, Nguyen Ho Que, Le Thi Nga, Nguyen Thuy Linh, Vu Thi Thu Thuy, Pham Thi
Tuyet, Nguyen Thi Hong Lieu, Nguyen Hoa Binh Abstract:
Vietnam coastal area and seu play an important role in socio-economic
!h)i nghi Khoa hoc vd Cong nghe bien lodn qiic)c lan ilu,
development and territorial sovereignly protection. However, the area has been affected by various disasters and pressure Jrom hiimun activities, causing an increase in vidnerabihly of natural resources and environment. This research is aimed to assess the vulnerability of natural resources and environment of
I'ielnam coasted area and sea The integrated vulnerubilily a.ssessment is based em three elements such as vulnerability fuclor.s (earthquake, landslide, ei-osion, accretion chunnel chunge, environmental pollulion. storm, flood, .sea level rise, natural conditions, and human activities intensifying disasters), vulnerable objects (MCilund, position resource, geolope. and anthropogenic formalion.si und resilience capacity of nuturul - wcted system. Vulnerability map ut scale I'I 000 000 iri/v established, in which ]'ielnum coastal urea and sea was divided into four areas of low. medium, relatively high, and high vulnerubihn The result indicuted thai vulnerability assessment procedure of nulumi resources und environment wus firstly estublished und upplied for the entire Vietnum couslul area and sea, playing un particularly imporlunl role m proposing policies und sirutegies for siisluinuhle use of nuliirat resources environmeni protection, hazard mitigation, und susluinuble development
Vimg bicn ven bd Vicl Nam cd vi tri quan Irgng trong phat Irien kinh le - xa hgi (K I - XH) xix bdo \'e ehii qu;cn lanh thd vdi hon 3000 hdn ddo, am lieu san hd va cae bai can, chija dung ngudn tai nguyen phong phii (sinh vdt. ddu khi, sa khoang, than, vdt lieu \dy dung...). Kgodi ra, vimg bien \en bd edn la noi lap trung ddn cu (15.5 trieu ngudi) cua 28 linh thdnh vdi cdc hoat ddng KT - XH da dang (thiiy san, giao thdng van tai bien. khai ilide khoang sdn, du lich, cdng ngbicp,..). Tuy nhien. ddy cung la noi chiu lac dgng eiia nhieu loai lai bicn (bdo. lu, xdi id. ddng cao muc nude bien. nhiem man, d nhiem nidi iruong.,.) va ap luc lir cdc boat ddng nhdn sinh (su gia tang ddn sd, hoat ddng KT - XI I) da lam suy giaiii chdt lugng tai nguyen, nidi trudng (TNMT). Chinh vi vay, nghien cuu mire do ldn Ihuong (MDTT) TNMT viing bicn ven bd Vicl Nam la ddi hdi quan Irgng va cap ihiel.
Vice nghien ciru MDTT ndy ehinh la eo sd khoa hge quan trgng giup cac nhd hoaeh dinh chinh saeb dc xuat cdc giai phdp thieh hgp nham sir dung ben virng TNMT, hudng ldi mue tieu phat trien ben vung.
Tren the gidi, khdi niem linh tdn thugng dugc dc xuat tir nhung nam 1970. Nhung nghien CUTJ dugc llurc hicn d eac quy md khae nhau: viing/khu vuc. he thdng tu nhien, KT - XI1. lieu bicu jd cdc cdng trinh nghien eihi eua NOAA [14]; Culler [6]; IPCC [10]. Trong dd, cae lac gid da dc xudt md hinh, quy liinh \d phuong phdp ddnh gia khd nang bi tdn thuong dua Ucn cde thong so duge djnh luxmg hda mdt each cd he Ihdng. Kaly va nnk [12] da d6 xudl mgt bo g''im 50 ehi sd ve ldn Ihuoiig mdi Irudng, Irong dd, Itnig y6u to gay ton thucmg cho nidi truimg deu dugc dinh lugng. Ngodi ra. hdu bet MDTl' dugc nghien eim Irong cde hodn cdnh da dang' lai bien nidi lardng [6, 12, 14], bii^n ddi khi hau [1].„ I Idu liCt cde nghien ciru duoe tiep can dua hen eac hop phdn chii yeu- cae ldc nhan, ddi tugng bj ldn thuong va kha nang phuc hoi/cbdng cliju.
ting phd ciia he ihdng. Cdc nghien ctiu nay cd xu hudng tap trung vao timg ldc nhan rieng le nlur
Tieu hem Dui ly. Dig chdt vd Dui vdi lv Bien
dang cao niue nude bicn [23], lu lut [7], xdi Id bd bi^n [3]...; tuy nliien, hudng nghien cim Idng hgp cac tde nhdn va ddi tugng ldn tiiuong edn il dugc thirc hien [6,12].
Tai Viet Nam, ede cdng trinh nghien cim tdn ihuang chi mdi bat dau tir nhirng nam cudi eua the ky 20. Cac nghien ciiii tiep can Iheo cac ITnh virc khdc nhau ciia he thdng tu nhicn - xa hdi, cdng ddng ddn cu \ a eac ldi nguyen ven bien [1, 9. 15, 20]. Nhiing nghien ciru ndy gdp phdn quan Irgng trong edng lac gidm ihiOu thiet hai tai bi6n. bdo vc TNMT".
quy hoach sir dung hgp 1\ viing bicn ven bd Viel Nam. Tuy nhicn, nhung nghien ciru ehi dugc dp dung iren quy md vimg va khu vuc. \'i du nhu cac nghien ciru tai Hdi Phdng 19], viing bicn ven bd Nam Trung Bd [15], vinh Ha Long, cira Sdng Hdng. Chan Mdy - Lang Cd; hoac nghien cuu MDTT Irong bdi cdnh bi^n ddi khi hdu [1, 20]. do lu lut [7]. Hicn nay. chua ed nghien cim nao danh gia tdng hgp MDTT TNMT cho todn viing bidn ven bd Viel Nam
TrC-n eo sd dd, nghien ciru ndy dugc thuc hien nhdm (1) dl xudt quy trinh ddnh gia MDTT TNM r ihco budng tdng hgp phii hgp vdi didu kicn thuc tfi d Vicl Nam vd (2) ddnh gid MDTT I'NM Y irong xdy dimg ehinh sdch, chien luge bdo ve TNMT va phdt Iricn b6n virng viing bicn \ en bd Viet Nam. Pham vi nghien ciru bao gdm cdc viing bit5n ven bd tir 0 - 30 m nude cua \'iei Nam.
2. Phuong phap nghien ciiu 2.1. Phirong phdp luan
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Do! (uong bi lun (ll irong
fui ngujun khoai)!; san - Tai ngujen VI ihc - ky qiian dio clial - Tai nguyen DNN - Cong trinh iihan smh
Kha nang ung plio ciia he thong tu* nhicn - \a hui
- K.ha naiig irng pho cua lii; lliOiig lir nhicn rung nsnp man, LO bicn san ho.
- Kha nflng unj; pho cua he diong \ a hpi dich \'ii y IC, trinh do van hoa. co so ha i5(ig, cong lac bao vc lai ngujen - nioi tnrang phong iranli lai bien
Chfing chap co trong so I^ I Cdc ban do thanh plian
Mut do ngu\ hiCm do cat )cu to g.iv liin ihiroiig
Kha nfing img phci cuu he Ihang lir nhicn
Chong chap co Irong so _ | l_
Ban do hicn (rang MDTT TNMT \ iing bicn ven b(V
Hinh I. Quy Irinh thdnh ldp bdn dd MDTT TNMT
HOI nghi Khoa hgc vd Cong ngh^ bien loan quoc lan ihi,
Nghien eim MDTT la co sd cho gidm thieu thiet hai tai bien, sir dyng hgp iy 'I"NM I .,.
xay dung chi5n luge phat Irian K T - X H theo cdch tifip can "ticn doan vd ngan chdi "
nbuiig ldc dgng lieu cue ciia tu nhicn va eon ngudilhay cho each tiep can "phdn irng - , ehua Iri" truyC-n thdng. Nhu vay, danh gid MDTT ean phai lam ro dugc hai vdn dO Liim,.
nhu sau: (1) mire do tdc ddng ciia cdc yeu td ben ngoai gay tdn tbirang (lai bien, yeu lu m nhicn va xa hdi cudng hda tai bicn) den ddi tugng bj tdn thuang. De ddnh gid duoc h-';>
phan ndy can phai thuc hicn ddnb gia mirc do nguy hicm eiia cde >eu Id gay ldn thuong >,;
nidi dd ddi tugng bi ldn thuong; (2) danh gid kha nang ung phd khi ehiu tac ddng trudc c:'u' yeu td gay tdn thuong.
2.2. Phuong phcip ddnh gid mice do ton thuong tin nguyen, moi tnrdng
Quy trinh ddnh gia MDTT TNMT vimg bicn ven bd Viet Nam dugc de xuat dira tren L jc phuong phdp. quy Irinh ddnh gia mirc do ldn thuang tren the gidi ap dung cho he ihdii'j ur nhicn - xa hdi [1, 2, 6, 14]; mdi irudng [12], viing bien \'en bd [23], \'a duge dieu chinli. hd sung phil hgp vdi dae diem ciia viing bicn ven bd Viet Nam. Quy trinli duge thue hien uom eae budc nhu sau:
Buirc I Phan lich va danh gia cac yeu td gay tdn thuong: cae tai bien; ede yeu to lu nhien va xa hdi cudng hda lai bien
Biie'rc 2: Phdn tieh va danh gia cac ddi tugng bj tdn thuang: ddt ngap nude (DNN), idi nguyen vi the, ky quan dia ehat, cdc cdng trinh nhan sinh,
Budc 3: Nhdn djnh, phan licb va danh gia kha nang img phd cua he thdng tu nhicn - xa hoi Bue'rc 4: Ddnh gia, phan vimg muc do nguy hiem do eae yeu td gay tdn thuong.
Budc 5 Ddnh gid. phan viing mat do doi tuong bi tdn thuang.
Buirc 6- Danh gid kha nang ung phd ctia he thdng lu nliien - xa hgi.
Budc 7: Danh gia, phan viing MDTT TNMT viing bi^n ven bd Vict Nam.
Ban dd hien trang MDTT TNMT viing bien ven bd Viet Nam dugc thanh lap tren eo sd chdng chap cdc ban dd thdnh phan: ban dd muc dd nguy hiem do cac yeu td gay tdn thuong.
ban dd mdt dd cae doi tugng bi tdn thuong va ban dd klia nang ung phd eiia he thdng lu nhien - xa hgi (hinb 1). Trong dd, trgng sd dugc xdc djnh thdng qua vice lira chon va danh gia nhCrng yen td quan Irong ciia timg ban dd chuyen dfi nhd cae phuong phap phan tich da chi lieu khdng gian vdi modul tich hgp AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) trong ArcGis 9.3 [19].
Dira Ircn cdc phep phan lich khdng gian trong Arcgis va phuong phdp dai sd ban dd, mirc do ton thuang tai nguyen mdi trudng viing bifin ven bd Viet Nam thfi hien su phan bd khdng gian theo loa do dja ly. Tren ban dd MDTT TNMT, vung cd MDTT eao sc cd mau ddni hon va nhat ddn khi chuyen sang viing cd MDTT thdp ban.
3. Diinh gia miic do tdn thuong tai nguyen, moi truong viing bicn ven bd Vict Nam 3.1. Danh gid mirc do nguy hiem do cdc yiu id gay idn thuong
3 1.1 Ddnh gid cdc yeu Id gdy ldn ihuang
Cdc yeu td gdy tdn Ihuong TNMT vimg bi^n ven bd Viet Nam dugc xac dinh gdm cac tai
Tieu bun Dta ly. Dig chdl vd Dia vgt lyBie
bi6n: dja ddng lire (ddng ddt, xdi Id bd bifin, bdi tu gay bicn ddng ludng laeh, dd Id, trugt Id);
dia hda (d nliicm mdi irudng nude va tram tich bdi cac kim loai va dau); tai bien lien quan dfin kill tugng thuy van (bao, lij, dang cao muc nude bien) va cac yeu Id eudng hda tai bien (din gay, nen dia ehdi, edng trinh nhan sinh), trong dd, cac tai bifin duge danh gia la yfiu td gay tdn thuong chinh.
a. Tai bien dia dong luc
Dgng ddl. Viing bien ven bd Viet Nam nam trong eac ddi pbat sinh ddng dat: Bac Bifin Ddng, Ba To - Ciing Son, Thuan Hdi - Minh Hai, Nam Cdn Son va Kicn Giang, Tir nam 1584 den nay, khu vue nghien ciru da xdy ra 7 Iran dgng dat vdi eudng do Idn hon 5,0 e\o richter, dien hinh ia hai Iran dgng dat manh 5,5 do richter tai viing ven bien Nam Djnh - Thai Binh (1584) vaddi ddng ddt Kien Giang (1969) [21].
Do Id, Iriroi lir. dien ra dgc theo viing bien ven bd, difin htnh la dd Id tai kliu vuc dao Cdt Ba (Hdi Phdng), dao Vinh Thuc (Quang Ninh) va trugt Id tai cdc thdnh lao cua tang cdt dd Phan Thifit.
Xdi la ba bien: dien ra manh me tai nhifiu khu vuc ven bien, lam mdt di nhieu vimg dal dai va cde ngudn tdi nguyfin quy gia vfi sinh hge, mdi trudng, du lieh, pha huy cae edng trinh ddn su va qude phdng. Tdc do xdi Id d eae khu vuc rat khde nhau, dien hinh la Cdt Hai (Thdi Binh) dat 38,4 m/nam, Sa Huynh (Quang Ngai) dat 27,5 m/nam, Gd Cdng Ddng (Ticn Giang) dat 31 m/nam. Dien tieh dat bj mat di do xoi tai tinh Ca Mau la 6934 ha [24].
Boi lu bien ddng ludng lach: boat dgng bdi tu dan den bifin ddi ludng lach, lam xudt hicn cdc doi cdt ngam gay nguy hifim cho tau be qua lai va ngan can su thoat lu da gay ra nhifiu thifit hai nghifim trgng ve kinh te. Hoat ddng bdi tu bien ddng ludng lach dien ra manh lai eac cua Ba Lat, Tra Ly, Diem Dien, Cira Ld, Tra Khuc, Phan Ri, Phan Thifit, Cii Lao Dung, dien hinh la cua Ba Lat vdi tdc do bdi tu dat 50 - 70 m/nam. Trong dd, eae linh cddicn tich dat bdi lu ldn la Nam Dinh (9534 ha), Bfin Tre (1865 ha) va Sdc Trang (1585 ha) [24].
b. Tai bien dja hda
(} nhiem nirac bai ddu: xay ra tai viing bien Bac Bd (Bai Chay, Tudn Chau, ddo Cat Bd - Laeh Gdni, cira Ba Lat) vdi ham lugng dao dgng trong khoang 0,12 - 0,17 mg/l. Vimg bifin Trung Bg la mdt trong nhung viing chiu anh hudng ldn do eac su cd Iran dau tren bifin.
Tir nam 2007 - 2009 da xay ra 3 sir cd tran dau vdi tdng lugng diiu da thu gom khoang 2420 tdn. Ham lugng ddu dao dgng trong khodng 0,1 - 2,82 mg/l. Cac khu vuc cd nguy eo d nhifim diu la sdng Hdn, cang Tien Sa, song Cu De, trung tam vinh Da Nang.
(') nhiim meixc bai kim logi ngng- mdi trudng nude viing bifin ven bd Viel Nam cd iiguy CO d nhifim bdi eac kim loai Cu, Mn, Pb, Zn, Cd, Hg va As lai nhieu khu vuc, chii yeu tai cdc cira sdng va ddm phd ven bien. Ham lugng cac kim loai Cu, Mn, Pb, Cd va Hg trong nude mdt sd viing bien Trung Bd vugt qua ticu chudn Vifit Nam ve chat lugng nude viing bifin ven bd cho muc dich nudi trdng thiiy san [18].
() nhiim moi tnrang trdm tich: moi trudng tram tich cd nguy ca d nhiem bdi cac kim Ioai Hg, Cu, Zn, Pb, As va Sb tai nhieu khu vue, chu yfiu tai eac cua song, bai trifiu va dam
'Idl nghi Khoa hoc vd Cong nghe bien lodn qudc ldn ihu I'
phd ven bifin. Theo lieu chudn cua Canada, trdm tich viing bicn Viet Nam cd bieu hicn ;.
nhiem bdi Cu (89 mg/kg), Zn (440 mg/kg), Hg (3,00 mg/kg) va Pb (140 mg/kg) [11].
c. Tai biin lien quan din khi lugng ihiiy vdn
Bao vu lit hit: Trung binh mdi nam vimg bifin Bac Bg chju anh hudng cua 5 - 6 can hdo.
ed nam lfin dfin 9 - 1 0 con bao. Viing bicn Trung Bd cd tan suat bao dd bd cao nhdl c,i nude, chifim 65% tdng so con bao cd anh hudng tdi viing ven bifin. Tir nam 1961 den nam 2010, cd 177 con bao dd bg vao ddi ven bien Trung Bg (139), Nam Bo (21) va Ta\ Nam Bd(I7)keo theo mua lii gay ihiet hai nang ne [22]. Trong nhung nam trd lai ddy, linh hinh bao dien ra phuc tap va cd xu hudng gia tang gdy ra nhifiu thiet hai vc ngudi va tai sdn.
Ddng CUO mirc nirac bien: Theo kieh ban bifin ddi khi hau, vdo cudi the ky 21 muc nude bifin dang them tir 65 - 100cm so vdi thdi ky 1980 - 1999 [4]. Vicl Nam se mat 16% dien lich dat va 35% dan sd bj anh hudng kbi mue nude bien dang eao 5 m [13]. Ddng bdng sdng Cim Long va ddng bang Sdng Hdng la eac viing chiu tdc dgng manh me nhdt Hieo kicb ban nude bien dang cho Viet Nam [4]. dfin nam 2100 dien tich cd nguy cobi ngdp liji ddng bang sdng Ciru Long la 24.4% (anh hudng Iruc tiep khoang 20.4%i sd ddn) va hii ddng bang Sdng Hdng la 6.3% (anh hudng true tiep khodng 5.2%i sd ddn). Ddng cao nurc nude bicn lam mdi quy dat tai eac viing cd dg cao thdp ven bien va cudng hod cdc lai hicn xdi Id, lu lut, nhifim man.
3.} 2. Phdn viing mirc do nguy hem do lai bien
Ban dd mirc do nguy hiem do tai bien viing bicn ven bd Viet Nam, ty le 1:1.000,000 dugc thdnh lap theo quy trinh tren va phan thanh 4 viing cd mire do nguy hiem tir thdp den eao. Trong dd, vimg cd mite dd nguy hiem thdp chiem difin tich khdng ldn. Day la vimg ed mat do tai bifin nhd, chi chju anh hudng cua mdt sd tai bicn nhu bao, lu lut vdi cudng do nhd nhat, chua cd bicu hien d nhiem mdi trudng va it boat ddng khai thac TNMl gay cudng hda tai bien. Vung co mirc do nguy hiem trung binh chiem dien tich tuang ddi ldn.
Day la vimg chiu tdc ddng cua cae tai bien: bao, dang eao muc nude bicn trong bao, tai bifin dja hod. Vimg cd muc do nguy hiem tuang ddi cao- chiem dien tich kha ldn. Ddy la cdc khu vuc chiu tac ddng tuang ddi manh cua eac tai bifin: xdi Id bd bien, bao va lii lut, dang cao muc nude bien, nguy co d nhiem va su phdt trifin manh me eiia cdc hoat dpng nhan sinli (du lieh, nudi trdng thiiy sdn, giao thdng van tai...) gdp phan lam cudng hoa lai bien. Viing cd muc do nguy hiem ego: la nhirng khu vuc chiu anh hudng manh mc ciia lai bien (xdi Id bd bifin,, bao, lu lut, dang cao mirc nude bien trong bao, d nhiem mdi trudng.
nhiem man) va cac boat ddng nhan sinh (nudi trdng va ddnh bat hdi san, cdng nghiep, giao thdng thiiy) lam cudng hda eae lai bifin.
3.2. Ddnh gid mat dp doi tuffng bi tdn thuong 3 2.1 Ddnh gid cdc ddi tuang bi ton thuang
- Cdc doi luang nhdn sinh: bao gdm eac khu dan cu ven bifin (sd ngudi dan. cac loai nhd d thudc lang, xa, dd thi \ en bifin), cdng trinh van hda - nghfi thuat (kfi ca cac di tich lich MI - van hda...). co sd ha tang bien va ven bien, eae khu vue san xudt ndng nghiep, nudi nong thuy san, danh bdt hai san, khai thac khoang san, du lich bifin, cac khu cdng nghiep. khu ehe
T,eu ban Dia ly, pic, chdl vd Dia vdi ly BiSn
xuat. tau thuyOn.,.
- Tdi nguySn D.VN DNN ven bidn chidm dien tich 1.931.654 ha, da dang vh ki8u loai, loat hinh canh quan va sinh thai, phong phu ve tai nguyen va da dang sinh hoc, co gia tn va y nghTa quan trpng trong phat triln KT - XH. Cac tinh/thanh ph6 ven biSn Tay Nam Bo co dien tich DNN Ion nhit dat 1.203.572 ha (chi2m 60,48%). Dua theo phan loai DNN ap dung clio Vict Nam [16, 17J, vijng bicn ven ba Viet Nam co 21 kiju DNN, trong do, vCing niroc bien CO dp sau <6m I<hi trieu l<iet chiem dien tich lon nhat (876.741 ha, chiem 45,39 %).
Ngoai ra, rimg ngap nian (115.267 ha, chiSm 5,97%), tham co bien (5.770 ha), ran san ho (110.000 ha) la cac k\cu DNN dong vai tro quan trpng trong dieu hoa vi khi hau, san xuSl sinh khoi, duy tri da dang sinh hoc va chan song, chan gio bao, on dinh bo bien ch6ng xoi lo [16,17],
- Till nguyen yi the: vimg bifin ven bd Viet Nam ed vi thd vd ciing quan trgng Irong vice bao ve ehii quyfin, an ninh eiia dat nude va phdt trifin KT-XH. Cae tai nguyen vj thfi lieu bieu Id: dao (Bach Long Vy, Cdn Cd, Cii Lao Cham, Hdn Gdm, Hdn Dd, Hdn 6ng, Hdn Cd, Hdn Nude...), vung vjnh (Ha Long, Ticn Yen - Ha Cdi, Cam Ranh...), edng (Vung Tau - Song Dinh, Cdi Mep, Phii^ My, VTnh Hy, Ca Na). Ngoai ra, cdc mui nhd nhu Nghinh Phong, Gdnh Rdi lao cho bicn cd dang vjnh niia kin, cd kha nang chdn sdng, gid... la dia diem thuan lgi cho cdc loai tau thuyen neo dau trong nhirng ngdy bien dgng.
- A;'' quan dia chdl: vimg bifin ven bd Vict Nam ed nhifiu danh lam thing canh: vinh Ha Long, cae bai lain va dao dep nhu Tudn Chau, Cat Bd, Dd Son, Trd Cd, Bai Chdy, Sdm Son. Thifin Cam, Cira Ld, Canh Duong, Cam Ranh, Van Phong, Mui Ne, Phan Thiet, Viing Tau...
- Tdi nguyen ddt viing bicn ven bd Viet Nam ed ngudn tdi nguyen ddt kha ddi ddo, thuan lgi cho phat trien ndng nghiep, lam nghiep, nudi trong thiiy sdn, xay dung va phat trifin cong nghiep, cang bicn. Theo sd lieu thdng ke nam 2009, dat san xuat ndng nghifip khu vuc Bac Bg chifim 24% tdng difin tich dat todn khu vire, tiire 3.210.647 ha; viing bien ven bd mifin trung cd 585.246 ha dat san xudt ndng nghiep (51%)), 194.560 ha dat lam nghiep (17%). ddt 269.849 ha nudi trdng thuy san (23%i), va 90.221 ha ddt phi ndng nghiep.
3.2.2. Phdn vimg mdt do cdc doi tirgng bj ton thirang
Ban dd mat do ddi lugng bj tdn thucmg vung bien ven bd Viet Nam, ty le 1:1.000.000 dugc thdnh lap va phan chia thanb 4 viing cd mat do cae ddi tugng tdn thuang tir thap den cao. Trong dd. vung cd mat do cdc ddi tuang ton ihuang thdp chiem dien tieh ldn nhat, ehii yfiu phan bd trfin todn viing bifin Viet Nam, noi cd cac boat ddng nhdn sinh khdng dang ke.
Vimg cd mdt do cdc ddi tirang tdn thuang trung binh: dac diem cac ddi tugng tdn thuong d viing ndy la su ldp trung ciia cac he sinh thai rirng nhu rimg tu nhien, rirng trdng, rirng ngdp man, bai cd, ddl lam mudi; phdn bd dan eu va eac cdng trinh nhan sinh d mire do Irung binh. Vimg cd mat do cdc ddi tirgng tdn thuang tuang ddi cao' noi day tap trung dan cu va cdc cdng trinh nhdn sinh tuang ddi cao. Them vao do, viing nay edn ed su phan bd eiia rirng ngap man vdi cac he ddng thirc vat quan trgng, dien tich trdng lua va hoa mau Idn. Vimg cd mdt do cdc doi luang tdn ihuang cao. la cac khu vuc cd ddng dan cu sinh sdng. tap trung ede cdng trinh nhan sinh quan trgng, eac boat ddng kinh tfi - xa hdi rdt phdt
Ildl nghi Khoa hpc vd Cong nghe biin loan qudc lim ihu i
trien nhu du lieh, cang bifin, cdng nghiep, giao thdng va eac tai nguyen thifin nhien khd phong phii.
3.3. Beinh gid kha nang ung pho cua hi ihong tic nhien - xa hpi 3.3 1. Khd ndng irng phd xd hoi
- Dun cu- vimg cd mat do dan sd cao se ed kha nang ung phd cao, vi ddy chinli Id lut_
lugng chinb trong cdng cudc phdng chong khi ed thien tai xdy ra. Dan sd chi tap trung ddng due tai mdt sd huyfin ven bicn, noi cd cae boat ddng KT - XH phat trien manli nhu Ha 1 .on- Hdi Phdng, Vinh, Da Ndng, Quy Nhon, Nha Trang, Vung Tau, Ihanh phd Hd Chi Minh,
- Lie Ihdng gluo thdng vein tdi- ed anh hudng rd net tdi klia nang ung phd eiia he ihuiv' lu nhien - xa hdi. Kha nang ung phd ciia he thdng giao thdng phu thudc ldn vao mdi it"' eiia ehung, khu vuc cd mat do giao thdng ldn se ed mirc dd ung phd cao trude cdc yen In gay tdn thuang va ngugc lai. Ve giao thdng dudng bd, trong dai ven bicn Viet Nam LU Qudc Id 10, Qudc Id 18A, Qudc Id IA, tuyen dudng sat Bac - Nam. Giao thdng duiinjj, thiiy cung rat phdt trifin, mang ludi sdng ngdi tuong ddi day... Ben canh dd, \iing Bac Bo cdn cd thudn lgi nhd ed nhieu cdng bien ldn: Cii'a Ong, Cdi Lan, Vat Cdch, Cira Ld, Viinj', Ang...
- Y te: Cac ea sd y te ddng vai trd quan trgng trong vice ung cuu kip tbdi eho ngi;di dan khi ed thien lai, benh dieb xay ra. Chinh vi vay, kha nang ii'ng phd cao d nliung khu vuc cd mat do ca sd y tc cung nhu trinh do cua cac y, bac sT cao. Da phan mdi hu>cn VLII bifin dfiu cd it nhdt mdt benh vifin va nhifiu co sd y tfi kliac. Cdc huyen ven bicn Viet Nam cd khoang 2098 co sd y tfi, Irong dd ed 7066 bac sT, 17.279 y ta, y sy va 3276 nu ho sinh [5]
- Vun hda. gido due: sd trudng hge va sd hge sinh - sinh vifin trong vimg phdn anh trinh dd cung nhu khd nang nhan thire ciia ngudi dan vfi cac loai tai bien. Do dd, vimg cd mat do Irudng hgc eao va trinh do hge vdn ciia ngudi dan cao se cd kha nang irng phd lot ban cde viing khdc. Theo nien gidm thdng ke eae linh ven bicn, trong 38 huyen ven bicn thudc 8 tinh tir Qudng Ninh den Ha TTnh cd 923.684 hgc sinh tir mau giao den phd thdng trung hgc, 92 huyfin ven bifin thude 21 tinh ven bien (tir Qudng Binh den Kien Giang) cd tdng sd 4438 irudng, 124.792 gido vien va 2.501.791 hge sinh [5].
3.3 2- Khd ndng icng phd tir nhien
a. Thanh tgo dia chdt: dua vao tinh chat co ly, kha nang tang trir dgc td cua tram lich.
cac thanh tao dia chdt cd the phan ra lam ba nhdm. Nhdm thanh tao dd gdc ran cbae co kin nang ehiu tdi tdt ddi vdi nguy ca tai bien dja hda, xdi Id, lu lut, dang cao mue nude bicii nhung lai nhay cam ddi vdi cae tai bien dd Id, trugt Id vd kha nang tang triJ ddc Id i'-"'' Cac thanh tao ndy phan bd d cac dao va cac mui nhd ven bd. Nhdm thdnh tao tram tich ba rdi cd khd ndng ehiu tai kem, tang trii- dge td kem (chii yfiu la cat) va nhdm cac thduli lao tram lich bd rdi ehiu tdi kem, chdng xdi Id kem va tang trD: ddc td ldt (set, bgt set).
b He sinh thai: viing bifin ven bd Viet Nam cd cac he sinh thai phong phii va da dang:
sinh cdnh rirng, ruong lua, rirng ngap man, thuc vat thiiy sinh...ddng vai trd quan uong trong kha nang chdng ehiu, phuc hdi cua he thdng tu nhien trudc eac tai liifin. Trong dd,
Tiiu ban Dja ly, Dja chdt vd Dia vgt ly Biin
rimg ngdp man dugc ddnh gia la cd kha nang irng phd cao nhdt, do cd khd nang chdng chiu, gidm thieu tac dgng ciia cac yeu Id gay tdn thuang, ddng thdi ed kha nang phuc hdi cao sau cac tdc ddng
3.3.3. Phdn vimg khd ndng irng phd cua he thdng tu nhien - xd hgi
Ban do kha nang img phd ciia he thong tu nhifin - xa hdi vimg bien ven bd Viet Nam, ly le 1:1.000,000 duge Ihanh lap, phdn chia thdnh 4 viing. Vitng co khd ndng irng phd thdp chiem 28,0%o dien tich viing nghifin euu. Day la viing ed dja binh dudng bd nhay cam ddi vdi cde lai bicn xdi Id va bdi tu, hdu nhu khdng cd rimg ngdp man, cau tao chii yeu bdi cac thanb tao bd rdi, va liem luc iimg phd xa hgi thap. Vimg cd khd ndng irng pho trung binh chiem 25,9%) difin tich viing nghien CIJU. Day la khu vuc cd it rimg ngap man, rimg tu nhicn thua thdt, eae thdnh tao tram tich chii yeu la cat, biin cat... de bi anh hudng cua dgng lire bicn (sdng, thiiy Iricu, ddng chay ven bd) va tai bien lu lut, eo sd ha tdng chua phdt trien, cdng lde phdng trdnh thifin tai chua thue su dugc cbii trgng. Vimg cd khd ndng irng phd tuang doi cao chiem 23,3% dien tich viing nghien cuu. Vimg nay cd dien tieh rimg (rirng ngdp man. rirng tu nhifin) kha Idn vd ddn cu tap tnjng tucmg ddi ddng, cdng tdc qudn ly. bao vfi tai nguyen thien nhifin va ca sd ha tang tuong ddi tdt. Vung cd khd ndng irng phd cuo day la viing tap trung dan eu ddng diic nen cac cdng trinh nhdn sinh d day rat phat trien, eae tuyen dudng giao thdng qude Id, tinh lg va huyen Id cung duge ddu tu, khien eho vice di chuyen de dang va ihuan lgi, dicn tich dang ke rimg ngap man.
3.4. Phdn vimg mirc dp ton ihuang tdi nguyen, moi tric&ng
Tren eo sd cdc ldp thdng tin cua bdn dd muc dd nguy hiem do cae yeu td gay tdn thuong, mat do ddi tugng bi tdn thuang va kha nang iing phd eiia he thdng tu nhien - xa hdi, ban dd MDTT TNMT dugc thanh lap, phan ihanh 4 viing ed MDTT tir thap dfin cao (liinh 2).
Vimg cd MDTT thdp chiem khoang 17 % dien tieh viing nghien cim, chii yeu Id vimg bien ngoai khai. Cac tai bifin tae dgng den viing ndy rat it, chu yeu Id dang cao muc nude bien trong bao. Cac cdng trinh nhdn sinh bau nhu khdng xuat hien.
Vimg cd MDTT trung binh: chifim 34 %> dien tich vung nghien cim, bao gdm dai viing bien ven bd keo dai tir Qudng Ha (Quang Ninh) den Quang Trach (Qudng Binh); viing bifin tir hu>cn Quang Traeh (Qudng Binh) dfin cdc huyen Md Due, Duy Xuyen, Niii Thanh (Qudng Ngai); Hoai Nhon, Phii My, Phii Cat (Binh Dinh); Sdng Cdu (Phu Yen); Van Ninh, Ninii Hda, Cam Ranh (Khanh Hda); phan dat lifin cdc huyfin ven bifin tinh Ninli Thuan, Binb Thudn, Hd Chi Minh, Bfin Tre; vimg bien Bae Lieu tir 5 - 30 m nude, viing bien tir Ha Tien den mui Ca Mau. Ddy la nai chju dnh hudng cua eae loa. tai bien d muc do trung binh - eao, bao gdm dang cao mue nude bifin, lu lut, xdi Id bd bicn, 6 nhiem. Ngoai ra, viing cdn ed nguy CO d nhiem kim loai nang hrong nude, tram tich va d nhiem dau, it chiu anh hudng ciia cde hoat dgng nhdn sinh, trong klii dd kha nang ting phd tuong ddi cao dfin cao do cd he thdng rimg tu nhien rat phdt trien.
Vimg cd MDTT tuang ddi cao: chifim 31 Vo dien tich viing nghien cuu, phdn bd khd rdi rac trong viing nghien cuu bao gdm phan dien tieh dat lien thudc huyen Quang Ha, Hai Ninh, Ha Long (Qudng Ninb); Dd San (Hai Phdng); Quynh Luu, Nghi Ldc (Nghfi An), Ky
lio! nghi Khoa hoc va Cdng nghe bien todn qudc ldn ihd 1'
Anh (Ha TTnh); ven bd huyfin Tuy Phong, Bdc Binh (Ninh Thudn), Binh Thudn; 0 - 5 m nude linh Bac Lieu, 0 - 10 m nude tir huyfin Hdn Ddt dfin Mui Ca Mau.. Noi day chju lac ddng tuang ddi manh ciia cdc loai lai bifin (bao, lu, xdi \a bd bifin, xam nhap man. moi irudng bifin cd nguy co d nhifim kim loai nang), mat do ddi tugng bj tdn thuong trong khu vuc cung d mirc cao (ddn cu, lau ihuyfin danh bat ven bd, boat ddng nudi trdng thuy san, cdc bai trieu ven bd, bai gian trifiu, edn bai eira sdng). Kha nang irng phd tai ddy cung d miic luang doi eao
Vimg cd MDTT CUO. cbifin 18 % difin lieh viing nghien cuu, phan bd dgc dai ven bd lii Hdi Phdng den phia tren tinh Qudng Binh; Da Ndng, Hdi An, Tam K y , p u y Nhon. VTnh Linh, Gio Linh (Qudng Tn); Qudng Difin, Phu Vang (Thixa. Thien - Hufi); Phu Cdt (Binh Dinh); Tuy An (Phii Yen); ban dao Cam Ranh, dat lien ven bien Viing Tau, Nhan Trach (Ddng Nai), Cdn Gid (Ho Chi Minh), Gd Cdng Ddng (Ticn Giang), cac huyen ven hifin tinh Ben Tre, Tra Vinh, Sde Trang, Bac Lifiu, phan dat lifin cdc huyen Trdn Van Thdi. Cdi Nude, Nggc Hien va Dam Dai (Cd Mau). Day la noi tuy phong phu ve mat tdi nguyfin (ky quan dia chdt. tdi nguyen vi thfi, he sinh thai rirng ngap man phat trien. .) nhung chiu anh hudng cita hdu bet tai bien (bao, lii lut, xdi Id bd bien, d nhiem), cdc hoat ddng nhdn smh eudng hda tai bien d miie cao (mat do dan eu tap trung ddng, nhieu nha may, khu cdng ngbicp, du lich. giao thdng. nudi trdng thiiy san).
Kcl qud phan viing MDTT eho thay xu the cang gdn bd bien MDTT cdng cao do day la noi hung chiu nhifiu tai bicn va tap trung eao eac hoat ddng phdt trien KT-XH. Tuy nhtcn, tai cac viing cd nfin da ran ehae (cdc miii nhd) va rirng ngap man phat tnen, MDTT thudng d mire trung binh. Difiu nay eho thdy khd nang chdng chiu hay khd ndng irng phd tu nhifin ddng vai trd quan trgng lam gidm MDTT TNMT, ddng thdi chirng td kha nang irng phd xa hdi cdn ban che. Tuy nhien, tai cdc nude phdt trien nhu My, Australia lai cbo thdy mdi xu the dao chieu khi kha nang ung phd xa hgi ddng vai trd quan trgng [3, 6, 8, 14].
Ket qua eiia nghien eim ndy la co sd quan trgng nham de xuat eac giai phap thieh hgp giam thifiu tae dgng ciia eae tai bien va boat dgng nhan sinh lam suy thoai TNMT, quy hoach sir dung hgp ly cdc ddi tugng hi tdn thuang, tang cudng kha nang ung phd. Trfin ca sd dd, mdt sd giai phap sir dung ben viing TNMT duge de xuat gdm: quan ly (tang cudng hifiu lyc ciia luat phap, chinh sdch, quan ly dya vao edng ddng, quan ly tdng hgp viing bien ven bd); quy hoach sir dung ben vu'ng TNMT (md hinh kinh te ben viing nhu ndng nghiep.
nuoi trdng thiiy san va du lieh sinh thai; md hinh bao ve tai nguyfin DNN nhu xdy dung cdc tram quan trac va giam sat); giai phap giam thieu thiet hai thifin tai (khdi phuc va nid rgng difin tich rirng ngdp man, xay dung cde cdng trinh bao ve bd bi^n, chong xdi Id...}- Caeh tifip can nay la mdt hudng mdi, hien dai nham bao ve TNMT va tang cudng nang luc phdng tranh, giam thieu tai bifin. Ket qua eiia nghien cuu nay doi hdi tinh cap Ihict cua vific trien khai nghien ciru tifip theo ve danh gia MDTT TNMT trong boi cdnh bicn dot khi bdu, gdp phan thuc hien chuong trinh mue tifiu quoc gia vfi thich ung vdi bifin ddi khi hdu.
Tieu ban Dig ly. Dig chdl vd Dia vdt ly Bien
Chil giai Mu'c do t6n t h u c n g I I Tliop I i Truny timli
^^^^'^ Tumig doi cao E^SI Cao Cac ky hieu khac l_ t Ranh gioi liuy^n ven t f__"_i Ranh gi*i lmh I I Ranh giD-i quoc gia
Hinh 2 Bein dd mirc do tdn ihuang tin nguyen, moi iruang cc'ic viing bien ven ha Viel Num.
Hdi nghi Khoa hgc vd Cong nghC' bien loan qudc ldn ihd 1'
4. Ket luan
MDTT TNMT viing bifin ven bd Vicl Nam dugc danh gia theo ba hgp phan: cdc yfiu li') gdy ldn thuang (cdc tai bicn difin hinh nhu ddng ddt, xdi Id, bao, bdi tu bien dgng ludng lach, dang eao muc nude bifin. d nhiem mdi trudng vd cac yfiu td ty nhien va nhan sinh cudng hda tai bifin); cdc doi tugng bi tdn thuong (tai nguyfin DNN, tai nguyfin vi the, ky quan dja chdt, cdng trinh nlian sinh...) va klid nang irng phd ciia he thdng ty nhicn - xa hdi (dan cu, ca sd ha tang, y tfi, van hda, giao due)
Kfit qua nghien cuu cho thdy viing bien ven bd Vifit Nam duge chia thanb 4 vimg cd MDTT TNMT khde nhau: tir thap, trung binli, tuong doi eao den cao. Xu the cang gdn bd bifin MDTT cdng cao do day Id noi hung chiu nhieu tai bien va tap trung eao cdc hoat ddng phat trien KT-XH. Tai cdc vimg cd nen da ran chac (cdc mui nho) va rirng ngap man phat trien, MDTT thudng d mire trung binh. Dicu ndy cho thay kha nang ung phd ty nhien ddng vai trd quan trong lam giam MDTT TNMT; ddng thdi chirng td khd ndng img phd xa hdi cdn ban che.
Ddy la quy trinh ddnh gia MDTT TNMT lan dau tifin dugc xay dyng va ap dung cho loan viing bifin ven bd Viet Nam. Ket qua cua nghifin ciru nay ddi nhu cau cap thifit thyc hicn nliung nghien ciru tiep theo vc danh gid MDTT TNMT trong bdi cdnh bien ddi kbi hau.
Tap thfi tdc gia chdn thanh cam on Quy Phdt trifin Khoa hgc & Cdng nghfi Qudc gin (NAFOSTED) - dfi tai co ban ma so 105.09.82.09 va du an "Dieu tra, danh gia miie do ton thuang tdi nguyen - mdi trudng, khi tugng thiiy van bien Viet Nam; du bao thifin tai, d nhifim mdi trudng tai cae viing bifin" da hd trg hoan thanh nghien cuu nay.
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