FTA ASEAN - Trung Quoc: nhung anh hudng den phuc Ipi nganh soi det Viet Nam
L E T H I K I M C H U N G
Pai vie't sd dung mo hinh can bang rieng dS danh gia tac dpng cua viec cat giim thue'
• quan theo cam ke't cua hiep dinh thUdng mai tU do (FTA) ASEAN - Trung Qudc ma VietNam da tham gia de'n cac chi tieu phuc ldi trong nganh sdi det Viet Nam. Diia tren cdsd sd' lieu thu thap dUdc cua nganh sdi det theo tan suat quy tdi nam 2006 den quy II nam 2018, bai viet da lUdng hoa tac dpng cua viec cat giam th ue'quan doi vdi nganh sdi dpt; dong thdi, dda ra mpt so'khuyen nghi nham giiip cac doanh nghiep nganh sdi det phat then va tang kha nang canh tranh vdi cac sin phdm nddc ngoai.
TU k h o a : FTA ASEAN - Trung Quo'c, giam thue'quan, phuc ldi, nganh sdi det Viet Nam.
1. Gicfi t h i e u
Vidt Nam da tflng bfldc md cfla n e n k i n h te' va thi trflcfng b a n g each thie't lap q u a n he song phfldng trong thfldng m a i , d l u tfl va tai ehinh, t h a m gia vao cae ed che da phfldng trong cac linh vflc nay. Vdi vide hdi n h a p kinh - te' sau rpng t r o n g thdi gian quan, Viet N a m da trd t h a n h t h a n h vien cua ta't ca cac to chflc quoc te' ldn; tie'p can, ky ke't hoac t h a m gia dam p h a n ve 19 hidp dinb thfldng mai tfl do (FTA). B a t d a u b a n g viec gia n h a p khd'i Ddng N a m A (ASEAN) va k j ke't hidp dinh thfldng m a i tfl do ASEAN (AFTA) vao n a m 1995, gia n h a p Diln dan kinh te C h a u A T h a i Binh Dfldng (APEC) vao n a m 1998, Vidt N a m da tich cflc chu dpng t h a m gia cac FTA song phfldng va k h u vtic vdi n h i e u n e n k i n h td' ldn nhfl: My, T r u n g Quoc, Lien m i n h C h a u Au (EU), Chile..., cung nhfl cac m a n g Ifldi thfldng mai da phfldng nhfl: To chflc thfldng mai thd' gidi (WTO), ASEAN - An Dp, ASEAN - Han Qud'e, ASEAN - Uc - Niu Dilan. Cac chinh sach mci cu(a va hdi n h a p cua Vidt Nam da gdp p h i n t h u h u t cac n h a d l u tfl nfldc ngoai d l u tfl vao Viet N a m , tfl dd t h u c d i y san xua't trong nfldc, gia t a n g vi thd' cua Vidt Nam t r e n trfldng quo'c td'. Tuy nhien, qua t r i n h hpi n h a p k i n h te quo'c t e cung cd nhflng tac ddng tieu cflc de'n hoat
ddng kinh t e cua cac n g a n h kinh te noi rieng va cua n e n k i n h td' ndi chung, do phai thflc hien cae cam ke't c i t giam h a n g r a o t h u e q u a n va phi t h u e q u a n . Vide c i t giam t h u e q u a n se giup ngfldi tieu dflng dfldc m u a vdi gia tha'p hdn n e n t h a n g dfl ciia ngfldi tieu d u n g se t a n g len, nhflng dong thdi vdi vide gia giam t h i cac n h a san xua't trong nfldc bi ton tha't va nguon t h u ngan sach tfl t h u e cua chinh phu cflng se giam xud'ng. Vay ldi ich cua ngfldi tieu dflng hay t h i e t hai cua n h a san xua't trong nfldc va nguon t h u n g a n sach chinh p h u khi cat giam thud' q u a n se ldn hdn? D^ t r a ldi cau hdi nay, bai vidt se Ifldng hda tac ddng cua viec cat giam thue' q u a n theo cam ket trong hidp dinh thfldng m a i tfl do (FTA) ASEAN - T r u n g Quoc den cac k h i a canh phuc ldi nhfl: t h i e t h a i cua chinh phii, t h a n g dfl cua ngfldi san xua't, t h a n g dfl cua ngfldi tidu dung, hieu q u a xa hdi va so' vide iam cua n g a n h sdi det.
2. T o n g q u a n n g h i e n cifu, cd s d ly t h u y e t v a p h i f d n g p h a p n g h i e n ctfu 2.1. Tong quan nghien cilu Trong nhflng n a m g i n day, viec nghien cflu tac ddng cua tfl do hda thfldng mai de'n
Le Thi Kim Chung. ThS.. Tm6ng dai hoc Thang Long.
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kinh te Viet Nam da nhan dfldc nhieu sfl quan tam cua cac nha kinh te trong nfldc va nfldc ngoai. Khi nghien cflu tac ddng cfla tfl do boa thiidng mai cl ca'p nganh, cac nghien cflu tap trung vao cac hifdng nghien cflu sau:
Fukase va M a r t i n (2001), D i m a r a n a n va M a r t i n (2005), P h a m Lan Hfldng va Vanzetti (2006), Vien Chie'n ifldc p h a t trien (2008), To Minh Thu (2010), Td Minh t h u va Lee (2015) deu sfl dung md hinh can bang tong the k h a toan (CGE) de d a n h gia tac ddng cua hdi n h a p kinh td' t r e n cac nganh kinh te' trong khudn kho WTO, ASEAN va cac FTA ASEAN+. Du nghien cflu trong cac khudn khd khac n h a u , nhflng cac nghien cflu nay deu cd dii doan tfldng tfl v l sfl t a n g trfldng cad cua n g a n h det, may mac va da giiy, day cflng la 3 nhdm nganh sfl dung nhieu lao ddng ma Viet Nam cd ldi thd' so sanh. Trong khi cac n g a n h k h a c lai cd mflc gia t a n g san Ifldng gidi b a n (nhfl cac nganh may mdc, cdng nghiep), hoac t h a m chi khdng t a n g va cdn bi tdn t h a t , bao gom nganh ndng nghiep va thie't bi van tai, d td, do udng, chi rieng nghien cflu cua F u k a s e va Martin (2001) la tim tha'y tac ddng cd ldi dd'i vdi ndng nghiep Viet Nam, tuy nhidn tac ddng nay la tUdng dd'i nhd. Td Minh Thu (2010) cdn k e t luan, san xua't ndng nghiep hi ton h a i khi gao khong dfldc dfla vao chfldng trinh tfl do hoa thfldng mai, trong khi dd gao dfldc coi la mdt "nganh nhay cam", cho tha'y t i m q u a n trpng eiia vide tfl do hda n g a n h gao. Khi gao bi loai khdi sfl tfl do hda thfldng mai k h u vflc, cac t h u n h a p phuc ldi cua c i c niidc xua't k h a u va n h a p k h a u gao giam dang ke. San Ifldng ndng nghiep cua Viet Nam se t a n g ne'u gao dfldc tfl do hda, ngfldc lai se giam.
Nghien cflu cua P h a m Thi Ngpe Linh va edng sfl (2008), Todsadee va cdng sfl (2012), deu sfl dung md hinh CGE de d a n h gia tac ddng cua tfl do hda thfldng mai dd'i vdi nganh chan nudi Viet N a m . Cac nghien cflu n a y cung dong t h u a n d kd't luan rang, cac FTA deu cd ldi cho phflc ldi vdi t h u e sua't
loai bd trong thdi h a n cua n g a n h chan nuoi.
Ty le t r e n GDP thiic te, khd'i Ifldng n h a p k h a u , kim ngach xua't k h a u cua nganh chan nudi deu tang, cdn b a n ngach thfldng mai bi ton h a i khdng qua nang ne". Cac hd gia dinh nho cua Viet Nam trong n g a n h chan nudi se diidc hfldng ldi tfl tfl do hda thUdng mai khu vUc va da phfldng. Cac phuc ldi cua hd gia dinh chu ye'u la do tac dpng cua quye't djnh ve lao ddng cua hp gia dinh, lam vide hoac t h a m gia giai tri, chfl khdng chi la sfl gia t a n g ldi n b u ^ n san xua't va tidu t h u h a n g hda.
Dee va cdng sfl (2005), Francois va cdng sfl (2011) d a n h gia tac ddng td'ng t h e cua tfl do hda thiidng m a i dd'i vdi n g a n h dich vu.
Cac nghien cflu cung dfla r a ke't l u a n rang, tfl do hda thfldng mai dich vu trong khudn kho WTO dd'n n e n k i n h td' Viet Nam la tich eflc, cac k h u d n kho tfl do h d a b d p dp khu vflc chi tac dpng d mflc tfldng dd'i nhd do td do hda theo cam ke't gia n h a p WTO cl mflc dang ke. Cac tac gia cho tha'y rang, Vidt Nam se cat giam cac r a o can dd'i vdi Hoa Ky va EU xud'ng mflc b i n h q u a n cua cac nfldc trong To chflc Hdp tac va p h a t trien kinh td' (OECD). Tac ddng td'ng t h e dd'i vdi n e n kinh td'd mflc b a n chd', t u y n h i e n mpt so'linh vflc cung cd sfl chuyen bie'n nha't dinh.
c a c nghien cflu d a n h gia tac dpng ciia tfl do hda thfldng m a i de'n cac chi tidu phflc ldi (thang dfl tieu dung, t h a n g dfl san xua't, doanh t h u t h u e , hieu q u a xa hdi) cua cac n g a n h sfl d u n g mo h i n h can bang rieng (PE), dien h i n h nhfl c a c ' n g h i e n cflu cua:
Gassing va cdng sfl (2010) sfl d u n g md hinh can bang ridng SMART, Nguyen, Dflc Thanh va Nguyen Thi T h u H a n g (2ai5) vdi md h i n h can b a n g ridng GSIM ap d u n g vdi n g a n h chan nudi, Nguyen K h i c Minh va cdng sfl (2004) flng d u n g md hinh P E tap t r u n g vao do a n h hfldng cua tii do hda thfldng mai de'n 9 m a t h a n g n h a p k h a u cua Viet N a m . Cac n g h i e n cflu deu sfl dung k h u n g ly thuye't cua p h a n tieh can b a n g rieng n e n d^u da t i n h t o a n dfldc tac ddne
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cua viec giam thud' quan theo cac kich b a n den t h a n g dfl ngfldi tieu dung, t h a n g dfl ngfldi san xua't, doanh t h u thud'. Nghien cflu cua Nguyen Khac Minh va cdng sfl cdn tinh toan de'n ca sd' viec lam bi ma't di khi tfl do hda thfldng mai. Nguydn Dflc T h a n h va Nguydn Thi Thu H a n g xem xet tac ddng cua TPP va ACE de'n cac chi tieu phuc ldi cua nganh chan nudi da ke't luan rSng: T P P se lam cho san Ifldng cua cac n g a n h chan nudi deu giam (ngoai trfl nhdm dpng vat sd'ng), trong dd thiet hai m a n h nha't la p h a n nganh thit cac ddng vdt khac (nhfl ldn, gia d m . . . ) ; trong khi TPP cd a n h hfldng k h a ro rang len nganh chan nudi t h i a n h hfldng cua vide gia n h a p vao AEC h a u nhfl khdng dang ke; td'ng phuc ldi cua cac n g a n h deu suy giam, ngoai trfl p h a n nganh t h i t ga.
Nhfl vay, cd t h e tha'y h l u he't c i c nghien cflu d ca'p nganh deu sii d u n g md CGE va mo hinh P E . Mdt trong nhflng b a n che cua md binh CGE dd la md h i n h n a y ddi hdi so' heu d l u vao ldn, bdi vay, ne'u cha't Ifldng so' lidu khdng td't se lam eho kd't qua d a n h gia tac ddng cua md hinh cd sai so' ldn. Dac biet, trong dieu kien so' lieu d Vidt N a m vfla thieu va yeu thi md h i n h CGE chi phfl hdp sii dung trong md phdng tac ddng cua tfl do hda thfldng mai hdn la Ifldng hda cac tac dpng cua nd den cac bien so' kinh te. Ben canh do, cac nghidn cflu sfl d u n g md h i n h PE d^u svt dung md h i n h can b a n g rieng SMART va ( i s i M . Md h i n h SMART h a y GSIM v a n dfla t r e n each tie'p can t i n h toan gidng md hinh CGE vdi dfl lieu toan d u va day la nhflng md hinh dfldc xay dflng s i n chd ngfldi s^ dung, n e n nhflng he sd' co gian trong md hinh thfldng la mac dinh cua md hinh, CO dinh dd'i vdi ta't ca cac nfldc va cac mat bang, hoac ndu cd t h a y dd'i thi xua't p h a t tfl sfl di^u chinh cua ngfldi p h a n tich.
Trai ngfldc vdi h a i md h i n h P E nay, md hinh PE theo each tiep can cua Nguyen K h i c Minh va cdng sfl (2004) sxt d u n g chi ap dung eho mdt nfldc cu t h e va nhflng hd sd' CO gian dfldc fldc Ifldng k h a c n h a u theo
tflng n g a n h h a n g cu t h e theo phfldng p h a p k i n h te Ifldng. Tuy nhien, nghien cflu nay chi dii bao de'n n a m 2004, trong khi tfl n a m 2004 de'n nay Viet N a m cung da t h a m gia nhieu FTA hdn, hpi n h a p kinh te' sau rdng hdn va tfl n a m 2015 de'n nay Vidt Nam biidc vao thdi ky cat giam thue' quan sau va dat den mfle dp cam kd't cud'i cung vdi vide xda bd thud' quan, hdn nfla nghien cflu nay cung chiia xem xet viec cat giam thue' quan theo cam k e t cac FTA cu the ma mdi chi gia dinb mflc thue' quan. Nhfl vay, d ca'p dp n g a n h tfl n a m 2004 de'n nay, chfla cd mdt nghien cflu cu the dfla trdn each tie'p can kinh te' Ifldng vdi md h i n h can bang rieng dd dfl bao tac ddng cua viec cat giam thud' quan, dac biet la c i t giam thud' quan tbeo cam ke't cua FTA ASEAN - Trung Qud'e de'n thidt h a i cua chinh phu, t h a n g dfl cua ngfldi san xua't, t h a n g dfl cua ngfldi tieu dung, cdng an vide lam va hieu qua kinh te xa hpi cua cac n g a n h trong khi Vidt Nam bfldc vao thdi ky cat giam thud^ sau.
2.2. Cd sd ly thuyet
Cd sd ly thuye't de t i n h toan cac a n h hfldng ve m a t phuc ldi k h i cac rao can ve thfldng m a i bi gd bd vdi each tid^p can dfla t r e n md h i n h can b a n g rieng dfldc Morkre va T a r r (1980) p h a t trien. Md hinh dfldc xay dflng dfla t r e n p h a n tich can bang tflng p h i n vdi bd'n gia t h i e t chinh dd la: (i) h a n g hda ndi dia va h a n g hda n h a p k h a u la cac h a n g hda t h a y thd' khdng hoan hao; (ii) dfldng cung cua h a n g hda n h a p k h a u hoan toan CO gian; (iii) dfldng cung cua h a n g hda ndi dia cd dp dd'c dfldng va (iv) cac thi trfldng la canh t r a n h h o a n hao.
Nhflng a n h hfldng cua viec loai bd hang r a o thfldng m a i bao gom, loai bd thue' quan hoac h a n ngach dfldc minh hpa trong hinh 1 va h i n h 2. Khi cd bao hd thi gia ciia h a n g npi dia canh t r a n h n h a p k h a u la Pd va Ifldng d u la Qd; cdn gia cua h a n g n h a p k h a u trong thi trfldng dfldc bao hd la Pm va Ifldng n h a p k h a u la Qm.
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HINH 1: A n h hfldfng t r e n t h i t r f l d n g t r o n g nflflc ciia v i e c gdf b o c a c r a o c a n
t h f l d n g m a i
HINH 2: A n h hfl&ig t r e n t h i trfldng n h a p k h a u k h i gd b o c a c r a o c a n thfldng m a i
Nguin: Morkre va Tarr (1980).
Sau khi loai bd thue' q u a n hoac b a n ngach se lam gia cfla h a n g n h a p k h a u trong thi trfldng ndi dia giam tfl Pm xud'ng cdn Pm' bang vdi gia cua the' gidi (hinh 2). Viec giam gia cua hang n h a p k h a u d a n dd'n d u vdi h a n g hda trong nfldc giam, nen dfldng d u cfla hang hda ndi dia dich chuyen sang ben trai tfl Dd sang D / , khie'n gia b a n g san xua't trong nfldc (hay h a n g npi dia) giam tfl Pj xud'ng edn Pd' va Ifldng tieu t h u giam tfl Qd xud'ng Qd'. Dong thdi, tac dpng nay da lam dfldng c l u cua h a n g hda n h a p k h i u dich chuyen sang t r a i tfl Dm sang Dm' va luc nay vdi mflc gia Pm' thi Ifldng n h a p k h a u tfldng flng la Qm'-
Nhfl vay, tai diem can bang mdi, gia cua hang hda nhap khau va h a n g ndi dia deu tha'p hdn, san Iflting cua hang hda dfldc san xua't trong nfldc cung tha'p hdn (Qd xud'ng xdn Qd')- khd'i Ifldng nhap k h a u se cao hdn (tfl Q„
tang len t h a n h Q™').
Phan tich anh hudngphuc ldi cua viec loai bo hang rao thiidng mai:
Mpt la, t h a n g dfl tieu dung (CS): vdi gia thie't cac h a n g hda n h a p k h i u va hang npi dia la cac h a n g hda t h a y the' khdng hoan hao cho nhau, nen td'ng ldi ieh ma ngfldi tieu dung thu dfldc p h a i bang tong cua thang dfl tieu dung 6 ca hai thi trfldng.
Phfldng p h a p t i n h t h a n g dfl tieu dung trong thi trfldng n h a p k h i u (hinh 2) nay dfla tren phan tich cua B u r n s (1973) vd^ viec do Ifldng t h a n g dfl tieu d u n g va tinh t r u n g binh ldi ich cua ngfldi tieu dung tinh thed mdi dfldng cau. Sfl dung dfldng c l u eu (Dm) cho tha'y, CS triidc khi gd bd thud' quan dfldc do bang p h i n dien tich kac, cdn CS sau khi g3 bd thue quan dfldc do bang p h i n dien tich kgd; do do, CS sau khi gd bd thue' quan da tang len so vdi trudc khi gS bd thud' quan la p h i n didn tich acdg. Trong khi vdi dfldng d u mdi (Dm') cho tha'y CS trfldc khi gd bd thue quan dfldc dd bang p h i n dien tich h a b , cdn CS sau khi gd bd thue' quan dfldc do bang p h i n dien tich beg; nhfl vay, CS sau khi gd bd thue quan da t a n g len la p h a n dien tich
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Sfl khac n h a u gifla hai hinh acdg va abeg la dien tich hinh binh hanh bcde, dfldng ce chia ddi hinh nay t h a n h hai p h i n va chd chung ta sfl thay doi vi thang dfl ngfldi tieu dung la hinh aceg. Nhfl vay, CS t a n g them trong thi trfldng n h a p khau la p h i n dien tich aceg dfldc fldc Ifldng bang each tinh tdng hinh chfl nhat acfg va hinh tam giac cef, dfldc tinh theo cdng thflc sau:
(Pm - Pm') X Qm + (1/2) X [(Pm - Pm') X ( Q m ' - Q m ) ] (1)
Ve anh hfldng tdi thi trfldng trong nfldc (hinh 1): phan tich tfldng tfl theo phfldng phap Burns, CS tang them trong thi trfldng ndi dia la p h i n dien tich swyz, c6 the fldc Iflpng dfldc bang each cdng td'ng didn tieh cua hinh chfl nhat svyz va hinh tam giac vwy, khi do se bang:
( P d - P d ' ) X (Qd') + ( l / 2 ) x [ ( P d - P d ' ) x (Qd-Qd')] (2)
Nhfl vay, cudi cflng td'ng ldi ich ma ngfldi tieu dflng thu dflde la:
Td'ng CS = CS trdn thi trfldng n h a p k h i u + CS tren thi trfldng npi dia, khi dd se bang:
(Pm - Pm') X Qm + (1/2) X [(Pm - Pm") X (Qm' - Qm)]+(Pd - Pd') X (Qd')+(l/2) X [(Pd - P d ' ) x ( Q d - Q d ' ) ] (3)
Hai la, thang dfl cua ngfldi san xua't trong nfldc (PS), vi trong thi trfldng ndi dia, t h a n g dfl tang them cua ngfldi tieu dung dung bang p h i n thiet hai cua ngfldi san xua't, nen thiet hai cfla ngfldi san xua't trong nfldc chfnh la p h i n dien tich swyz dfldc tinh theo cdng thflc (2) nhfl tren.
Ba la, nguon t h u tfl thue ciia Chinh phu.
Khi Chinh phu gd bd thue n h a p k h a u se lam gia hang nhap k h a u giam xud'ng mflc gia t h e gidi mpt Ifldng dung b a n g t h u e n h a p k h a u . Do dd, ngu6n t h u tfl thue' q u a n cua Chmh phu bi mat di chinh \k p h i n dien tich acfg, dfldc fldc Ifldng theo cong thflc sau:
( P m - P m ' ) x Q m (4)
Bdn la, ve hieu qua kinh te cho xa hpi, trong thi trflcfng npi dia, t h a n g dfl cua ngfldi tieu dung t a n g len da bu d i p du cho p h i n
ma't di trong t h a n g dii ngfldi san xua't. Ben canh do, trong thi tnidng n h a p khau cho tha'y CS t a n g t h e m chinh la phan dien tich aceg, cdn nguon t h u thue cua Chinh phu bi thiet hai p h i n dien tich acfg; nhfl vay, td'n t h a t ve nguon thu tfl thue' quan cua Chinh phfl da dfldc chuyen giao dd'n ngfldi tieu dflng. Do dd, didn tich hinh tam giac cef chinh la khoan bu d i p cho td'n tha't vd ich ve hieu qua, cd t h e diidc t i n h bang:
(1/2) X [(Pm - Pm-) X (Qm' - Qm)] (5) Nam la, so' cdng an viec lam cd the dfldc tinh bang:
Giam sd'cdng an viee lam =Lx(l - Qj'/QO (6) Trong dd: L = so' cdng an vide lam d nam co sd.
2.3. Mo hinh Udc lupng thUc nghiem De ap dung vide p h a n tich nay trong nhflng trflcing hdp cu th^, md hinh can b i n g rieng ddn gian da dfldc dfla r a tfldng flng vdi p h a n tich hidu do d cac phan tren. Dang cua md hinh dfldc Ifla chpn vdi gia thid't rang cac quan he c l u va cung khdng phai la tuyd'n tinh, nhflng chi cd quan hd tuyd'n tinh xdt ve cac logarit cua chung. Gia thie't nay iam cho cac t h a m sd' ket hdp dfldc vdi cae sd' hang ve gia va giai thich dp co gian d l dang hdn.
Morkre va Tarr (1980) da gia thiet c l u va cung cua thi trfldng ndi dia theo dang sau:
Q d ^ a P d ' ^ ^ P m ^ " " (7) Qs = bPd ^' (8)
Trong do: Qd la Ifldng c l u eua hang boa ndi tiia, Qs la Ifldng cung h a n g hda npi dia, Pd gia cua h a n g hda ndi dia, Edd la dp co gian rieng cua c l u h a n g hda san xua't trong nfldc theo gia ciia nd, Edm la dp co gian cheo cua c l u h a n g hda ndi dia theo gia hang nhap khau, Es la do co gian rieng cua cung theo gia h a n g hda ndi dia.
Do h a n g hda ndi dia va h a n g n h a p k h a u la cac m a t h a n g t h a y the' khdng hoan hao trong md hinh nay, nen de thi trfldng ndi dia can bang, cau trong nfldc phai bang vdi cung trong nfldc, nghia la Qd = Qs.
Nghiin cdu Kinh le si 9(496)-Thing 9/2019 7 5
FTA ASEAN - Trung Quoc ,
Gia sfl cung cua hang hda n h a p k h a u la hoan toan co gian, thi cac phfldng trinh cung va c l u trong thi trfldng n h a p k h a u se dfldc md ta nhfl sau:
Qm = cPd ^'"''Pm ^'""' (9) Pm = Pm"(l+t) (10)
Trong do: Qm la Ifldng d u cfla hang nhap khau; Pmla gia hang n h a p khau; Emd la dp co gian cheo cua c l u hang hda n h a p khau theo gia bang ndi dia; Emm la dp co gian rieng cua cau hang hda nhap k h a u theo gia cua nd.
Phfldng trinh 10 the hien gia thie't rang, cung cua hang hda n h a p k h a u la hoan toan CO gian; vi vay, cho du mflc do n h a p k h a u la bao nhieu thi gia cua t h e gidi Pm" bang Pm/(H-t), van khdng doi.
Hd thd'ng cac ham d u va cung nay cd the dfldc bien doi t h a n h mdt he thd'ng cac mo'i quan he tuye'n tinh bang each la'y logarit cua phfldng trinh (7), (8), (9) va (10) nhfl sau :
InQd = Ina + Edd InPd + Edm LnP™ (11) InQs = hib + Es hiPd (12) InQm = hic + Emd InPd + Emm InPm (13) lnPm = ln[P„"(l+t)] (14)
Tinh toan dp co gian cua ciu va cung:
Trong mdt so trfldng hdp cd fldc Ifldng v6 dp CO gian theo gia cua c l u bao g6m ca hang hda nhap k h i u va npi dia, m a khdng fldc Ifldng cu the eiia dp co gian cua c l u cho tflng loai hang rieng biet. Dd cd thd tinh t o i n , gia thie't rang, ca'u true cua c l u cd dang la dp co gian thay the khdng doi (CES). Ne'u ed dp co gian thay t h ^ gifla hai h a n g hda (dp co gian thay the la p h i n t r a m thay ddi trong ty le Ifldng d u cfla hang hda n h a p k h i u so vdi Ifldng e l u cua hang hda ndi dia, vdi moi 1%
thay dd'i ve g i i cua hang hda nhap k h i u tfldng flng vdi gia cua hang hda ndi dia), hoae cd the fldc Ifldng dflde, thi cd the' tinh dflde dp CO gian rieng cua c l u theo gii, b i n g each sfl dung cac phfldng trinh do Tarr (1990) phat trien nhfl sau:
Edd = -[(1 - Sd) X a + (Sd X Edt)] (15) Emm = - [(1 -Sm) X O + (Sm X Edt)] (16)
Trong dd: Edt la do co gian cua td'ng cau hang nhap k h i u theo gia n h a p khau tfldng ddi, o la dp eo gian t h a y the gifla hai nguon nhap khau b a t ky, Sd la p h a n chia ve mat gia tri cua hang hda ndi dia trong tieu dung: fad - Qd/(Qd + Qm), Sm la p h i n chia vd" mat gia tri cua hang hda n h a p k h i u trong tieu dung: Sm
= Qm/( Qd + Qm).
Cung ap dung phfldng phap do Tarr (1990) phat trien, ne'u bie't dp co gian rieng theo gia cfla c l u va dp co gian theo gia cua td'ng d u nay, thi cd t h e tinh dp co gian cheo theo gia trong trfldng hdp CES tfl cac phfldng trinh:
Edm = [- Sm(Edt + Em«>)]/Sd ( 1 ? ) Emd = [- Sd(Edt + Edd)]/Sm (18)
Trong trfldng hdp khdng bid't do co gian cua cung, nd'u ed th^ xae dinh mdt gia tri hdp ly cua he so' p h a n flng cua gia 9 = (Pd - Pd')/(Pm - Pm'), t h i cd t h e fldc Ifldng cung ciia h a n g hda npi dia bang:
Es = Edd + Edm/e (19)
Nhfl vay de cd the t i n h toan dfldc cac tham sd' vd' dp CO gian t r e n t h i phai fldc Ifldng dfldc Edt va o.
De fldc Iflpng Edt, nghidn cflu dfla trdn md hinh c l u nhap k h i u da dfldc nhi^u nghien cflu trfldc sfl dung, dien h m h nhfl nghign ciiu cua Houthakker va Magee (1969), Goldstein va Khan (1985), Narayan (2005), Nguyen khac Minh va cong sfl (2004). Md h m h c l u nhap khau cd dang logarit tuye'n tinh nhfl sau:
Log(Qm) = a + EdJog(Pm/Pd) + hlog(Y) + u (20)
Trong dd: Y la bid'n t h u n h a p qud'e dan ciia nfldc n h a p k h i u va dfldc la'y dai dien la GDP, Pd la gia san xul't trong nfldc cua nfldc n h a p k h a u (CPI dfldc sA dung de xa'p xi vdi gia trong nfldc), Pm la gia n h a p k h i u , Qm la Ifldng n h a p k h a u , u la so'hang nhieu.
De fldc Ifldng diidc dd co gian thay thd' gifla h a i nguon n h a p k h a u ba't k^ o, nghien cflu sfl dung md hinh dfldc chi dinh trong cac nghien cflu cua Leamer va stern (1970)
76 Nghiin cdu Kinh tSsi9(496) - ThU^^^^^
Nguyin K h i c Minh va cdng sfl (2004).
Phfldng trinh fldc Ifldng cd dang:
Log(Qi/Q2) = ao + CT X log(Pi/P2) +ai x log(J) + u (21)
Trong dd: Qi, Q2 la Ifldng n h a p k h a u tfl hai nguon bat ky, Pi, P2 la gia tfldng flng cua san pham dfldc n h a p k h a u tfl hai nguon, J la chi sd' san xuat cdng nghiep cua nfldc n h a p khau, u la so'hang nhidu.
2.4. Dd lieu nghien ciiu
Bai vidt sii dung cac so' lieu ve nganh sdi det theo t i n sua't quy tfl quy I n a m 2006 de'n quy II nam 2018, dfldc t h u thap tfl Tdng cue Thd'ng ke. Sd' lidu nghien cflu la dfl lieu chudi thdi gian, bao gdm sd' lieu ve gia va Ifldng san xuat trong nfldc, gia va Ifldng n h a p k h a u ciia nganh s i t thep, td'ng san pham trong nfldc (GDP) va chi so' gia tieu dung (CPI) vdi 49 quan sat.
2.5. Phuongphdp nghien ciiu Vdi sd' lieu t h u t h a p dfldc tfl Tdng cue Thd'ng ke, bai vie't sfl dung phfldng p h a p hoi quy binh phfldng nhd n h a t (OLS) d^ fldc Ifldng cac he sd' co gian, dfl bao Ifldng n h a p khau ciia thdi ky cd sd n a m 2018 vdi md hinh theo phfldng trinh 20, bang phfldng p h a p dfl HINH 3: Lfldng s a n xuaiit t r o n g nfldfc, Iflpfng
n g a n h
bao kinh te' Iflpng va cd ket hdp sfl dung phiidng p h a p hieu chinh sai sd trong dfl bao.
Dii bao gia, Ifldng san xua't trong nfldc, gia n h a p k h a u eua m a t h a n g sdi det trong nam cd sd theo phiidng p h a p Holt-winters, dfl bao bien GDP theo phudng p h a p ARIMA.
3. Lfldng h d a a n h h f l d n g c u a F T A ASEAN - T r u n g Q u o c d e n phflc ldi n g a n h sdi d e t
3.1. Tong quan tinh hinh hoat dpng ngdnh spi det trong nhdng nam qua Cac chinh sach md cfla va hdi n h a p cua Viet Nam da gdp p h i n thue day boat ddng thiidng mai, t h u h u t cac n h a dau tfl nfldc ngoai dau tfl vao Viet Nam, tfl dd cung da thuc d i y san xua't trong nfldc. San Ifldng san xua't trong nfldc cua n g a n h sdi ddt eung n i m trong xu hfldng t a n g n h a n h trong nhflng nam qua. Vdi nhflng ldi the' cua nganh nhfl so' Ifldng doanh nghiep ldn, Iflc Ifldng lao ddng ldn, t h u h u t vd'n d l u tfl trfle tid'p nfldc ngoai ldn thfl 2 Viet Nam, nganh sdi ddt da cd sfl t a n g trfldng ra't cao, Ifldng san xua't trong nfldc lien tuc t a n g cao, t r u n g binh h a n g n a m giai doan 2006-2017 t a n g vdi td'c dp 20,42%.
nhap khau va bie'n dong gia nhap khau cua sdi d e t
Tvle'
/ .
2006 2007 2008 2009
• Limig san xuat trong nudc
2010 2011 2012 2013 nmnLlWna nhSp kha'u
2014 2015 2016 2017 Bien dong gia nhap khiu
Ngudn:T6n^ cue Thfi'ng kt va ti'nti [oan cija tic gia.
Nghien aiu Kinh ias69(496) • Thing 9/2019 77
FTA ASEAN - Trung Quoc ,
Hinh 3 cho tha'y, mac du trong nhflng nam qua san xua't trong nfldc c6 sfl tang triidng cao nhflng nganh sdi det Viet Nam van chfla dap flng dfldc nhu c l u trong niidc, hang nam van phai n h a p k h i u mdt Iflpng ldn. Giai doan 2006 -2008, liidng nhap khau cdn cao hdn so vdi Ifldng san xua't trong nfldc, tfl nam 2009 trd di, Ifldng nhap khau khdng cao hdn so vdi Ifldng san xua't trong nfldc nhflng Ifldng nhap k h a u luon chiem tdi 60,72%/nam so vdi Ifldng san xua't trong nfldc. Khac vdi Ifldng nhap k h i u nhin chung ludn cd sfl gia tang, thi gia
nhap khau lai bien ddng ra't tha't thflt^ng.
Nguyen nhan chinh la do chiu anh hifcing cua gia the gidi va ty gia. Dac biet, hinh 3 cho thay, nam 2009 do chiu tac ddng cua khung hoang kinh te toan d u , gia the' gidi giam manh nen da lam cho gia nhap khau cua sdi det trong nam nay cflng giam manh. Trong cac nam gan day do Viet Nam hpi nhap sau rdng, cac FTA tii do trong khu vflc da gin hoan thanh, thue nhap khau biidc sang giai doan cat giam sau nen gia nhap k h i u nam 2015 va 2016 giam manh.
HINH 4. Ty t r o n g k i m n g a c h sdi d e t n h a p k h a u b i n h q u a n giai d o a n 2004 - 2017 t h e o dd'i t a c (%)
Nhat Ban: 3.11 Malaixia: 2,77.
Indonexia: 5.39.
Cac til! trucmg khac: 9,0
Trung Quoc: 35.0
Han Quoc: 11.42.
Thai Lan: 9.59
Nguin:J6ng cue Thd'ng Xet ve tbi trfldng nhap khau, tbi trfldng nhap khau sdi det cua Viet Nam da khdng chi tap trung b cac nfldc ASEAN ma bat dau phat trien sang cac thi trfldng khac. Nganh sdi det cd xu hfldng chuyen dieh sang thi trfldng Trung Quo'c. Ty trpng nhap khau tfl Trung Qud'e rd't cao, nam 2004 chi chie'm 13,03%, den 2017 tang len 47,28% to'ng kim ngach nhap khau sdi det, thi trfldng Dai Loan cung chie'm ty trpng cao nhflng trong nhflng nam g i n day lai cd xu hfldng giam, tfl 41,30% td'ng kim ngach nhap khau nam 2004 xud'ng con 16,90% nam 2017. Trong giai doan tdi, khi FTA ASEAN - Trung Quo'c bfldc vao giai doan
ke va tinh toan cua tac gia.
hoan thanh, thue' n h a p k h a u dfldc c i t giam sau (ve mflc cam ke't cud'i cflng 0%) thi dfl bao Ifldng n h a p k h a u sdi det tfl Trung Quo'c se con tang nhieu.
Ve xua't khau, vide t h a m gia vao cac FTA da gop p h i n thuc day xua't k h i u giai doan 2006 - 2017 (hinh 5). Kim ngach xua't khau cua nganh sdi ddt ludn cd xu hudng gia tang deu qua cac nam, trung binh hang nam tang 14,74%. Thi trfldng xua't k h a u nganh sdi det vao eac thi tnidng EU va My tie'p tue tang nhanh hdn vao cac thi trfldng khu vflc ASEAN. Ngoai ra, trong giai doan nay nhd cac FTA tfl do, xua't k h a u sdi det cua Viet
7 8 Nghiin cdu Kinh tes69(496) - ThingsisQ^
Nam vao cac thi trfldng Trung Quo'c, Han Quo'c, Nhat Ban lai lien tuc tang.
HINH 5: K i m n g a c h x u a t k h a u spii d e t g i a i d o a n 2010-2017 ( t r i e u USD)
2013 2014
• Soi dgt Nguin: T6ng cue Thong ke Nhfl vay, nganh sdi det Viet Nam van dang ton tai mdt mau t h u a n la p h a n ldn Ifldng sdi trong nfldc dfldc xua't k h a u , trong khi cac doanh nghiep lai phai n h a p k h a u sdi tfl nfldc ngoai. Td'ng Ifldng sdi trong nudc nam 2017 dat khoang 2 trieu td'n, trong dd Xua't khau 1,3 trieu ta'n, nhfl vay sdi san xua't ra hien nay phai xua't k h a u 2/3 san Ifldng. Nguyen n h a n cua nghich ly nay la de:
(i) xua't khau sdi dem lai ldi n h u a n cao hdn so vdi ban trong nfldc, khie'n cac doanh nghiep san xua't sdi cd ddng Iflc xud't k h a u hdn la tieu t h u trong nfldc; (ii) dac thfl nganh det may nflde ta lai chu ye'u la gia cdng xua't khau, nen viec chpn nguyen vat BANG 1: K e t q u a dfl b a o Ifldng n h a p
lieu la theo chi dinh cua ben dat hang, cac doanh nghiep san xua't hang may mac khong chu ddng dat vai trong nfldc san xua't, gay kho k h a n cho nganh sdi det, tfl do keo theo tac dpng khdng td't de'n d l u ra nganh sdi det trong nfldc.
3.2. Ket qud Udc lUdng thUc nghiem - Du bao Iddng nhap kha u:
Sau khi dfl bao b i n g phfldng phap kinh te Ifldng va ed kd't hdp sfl dung phfldng phap hieu chinh sai sd' trong dfl bao vdi md hinh theo phfldng trinh (20) thdi ky quy I nam 2006 de'n quy II n a m 2018, ke't qua du bao lUdng n h a p k h a u sdi det trong nam 2017, 2018 dfldc trinh bay 6 bang 1 nhfl sau:
k h a u sdi d e t n a m 2017 v a 2018 ( t a n )
rau cM
GiS tri thuc hien Gia tri dir bao Sai .sd dir bao
Giii tri thuc hifen Gi5 tri dit bdo Sai sodtrbao
Nam 2017 Q u j l
202.829 219.789,62
8,36
Q u J 2 226.066 230.084,89
1,78
Q u * 3 215.154 218.281,91
1,45
Q u J 4 232.299 243.597,33
4,86 Nam 2018
Q u j l 231.838 250.083,08
7,87
Q u J 2
254.745,74
Q u ^ 3
261.291,02
Q u J 4
266.886,83
NguinsTong cue Thd'ng ke va u6c luong cua tac gia.
Nghien cilu Kmh lisi9(496) - Thing 9/2019 79
FTA ASEAN - Trung Quoc ...
HINH 6: Ke't q u a dfl b a o va gia t r i t h i i c h i e n IflpTng n h a p k h a u ( Q m ) , g i a n h a p ^^^^
( P m ) , gia s a n x u a t t r o n g nfldc ( P d ) , Ifldng s a n x u a t t r o n g nfldc (Qd) c u a n g a n h sdi d e t , G D P b i n h q u a n d a u ngflcfi g i a i d o a n 2006-2018
Oe 07 Oi 09 ID I I 12 13 U IS 16 17 DS 01 Ot D9 ID II IZ 13 I I l i ID 17 I I
I — Q M — M I F |
Nguin:T6ng, cue Th6ng Nhfl vay, cd the tha'y kd't qua du bao Ifldng nhap k h i u sdi det treng nam 2017 va 2018 va nhin chung trong giai doan 2006 - 2018, ciing nhfl ke't qua dfl bao cac bie'n ngoai sinh khac la kha to't vdi sai sd' cua dii bao b mflc k h a nhd (sai sd' dfl bao cao nha't la 10%) va ket qua dfl bao la cha'p n h a n dflpc.
- Ke't qua do liidng inh hiidng cua tii do hoa thiidng mai:
ke vk udc luong ciia tSc gia.
Nhfl da t r i n h bay b p h i n md hinh nghidn cflu thflc nghiem, de cd t h e t i n h toan dfldc eac t h a m so' vd" dp co gian theo cdng thflc tfl (15) de'n (19), t h i phai fldc Ifldng dfldc hd sd"
CO gian cua tong cau n h a p k h i u theo gia n h a p k h a u tfldng dd'i Edt va he so' eo gian t h a y the gifla h a i ngu6n n h a p k h i u ba't ky a. Ket qua fldc Ifldng Eat va a dupc trinh bay d bang 2.
SO Nghien cdu Kinh lBsi9(496) - Thing9/2Q19
BANG 2: Ket q u a vlSc Wdng E j , v a a n g a n h sc(i d e t (quy I n a m 2006 d e n I n a m 2018) K€t qui u6c luong En
Bitfn phii thudc: Log(Qm) C^dc bitfn:
Hang s6
Log(Pm/Ca>I)
Log(Y)
-0,5010"
(0,2128) 0 , 8 9 5 4 - (0,0019) K i ^ d i n h
R' Durbin Watson Kiim dinh Tir tuong quan Kiem dinh phuong sai sai so thay doi
0,8433 2,3619 0,0882 0,4990
K^t qua udc lirong a BiSn phu thuac: Log(Qi/Qj) Cdc bi«h:
L0G(P2/P1)
LOG(I)
AR(I)
1,6232'"
(0,2982) 0,2724""
(0,0286) 0,8087"' (0,0750) Kiim dinh
R' Durbin Watson Kiim dinh Ttr tuong quan Kilm dinh phuong sai sai so thay doi
0,8496 2,3422 0,0042 0,4061 Ghi chii: Kvhjgu ***/** cho biet cac tham s6'udc luong c6 y nghia thong kS 6 miic y nghia tirong iing Ik 1% va5%. Sai
so tieu chu^n diroc dat trong ngoac don dudi cac he so.
Nguin:T6ng cue Thong ke va ir6c luong cua tac gia.
Kd't qua kiem dinh cho tha'y, md h i n h fldc Ifldng he sd' cd gian cua tong cau thed gia nhap khau tfldng dd'i Edt khdng cd Men tfldng phfldng sai sd' t h a y doi va hien tfl(3ng tii tiidng quan, cdn he sd' co gian t h a y the' nhap k h a u a cflng khdng cd hien tfldng phfldng sai sai sd' t h a y dd'i, nhflng cd hien tfldng tfl tfldng quan, n e n tac gia da k h i c phuc hien tfldng tfl tfldng q u a n b i n g phfldng phap Cochrane - Orcutt. Ke't q u a fldc Ifldng cho tha'y, cac dp eo gian fldc Ifldng dfldc cd y nghia thd'ng ke vdi mflc y nghia 1%, 5% va eho da'u nhfl ly thuye't mong ddi. Cu the: (i) he sd' CO gian cua tdng c l u theo gia n h a p k h a u tfldng do'i (Edt) m a n g da'u a m va cd y nghia thd'ng ke b mflc y nghia 5%, tflc la khi gia nhap k h i u tfldng dd'i t a n g l%i (cac ye'u td' khac khdng dd'i) thi td'ng c l u n h a p k h a u t r u n g binh cua nganh sdi det giam 0,5%. He sd' eo gian Edt cua n g a n h sdi det cho tha'y, Ifldng cau n h a p k h i u cua n g a n h n a y tfldng do'i it co gian theo gia n h a p k h i u ; (ii) he so' CO gian t h a y the' n h a p k h a u gifla h a i nguon n h a p k h a u ba't ky (o) mang da'u dfldng va cd
y nghia thd'ng ke cf mflc y nghia 1%, cho bie't:
khi gia n h a p k h a u cfla nfldc 2 tang 1%
(trong khi gia n h a p k h a u cfla nfldc 1 khdng ddi) thi tdng cau n h a p k h i u trung binh tfl nfldc 1 de thay the' cho n h a p k h a u tfl nfldc 2 cua nganh sdi det t a n g 1,62%, cd the t h i y nganh nay cd dp co gian t h a y the' nhap k h i u ldn, cho tha'y n g a n h nay cd ngudn n h a p k h a u cd the t h a y t h e cho n h a u cao, tao d i l u kien cho Viet Nam khdng bi qua le thudc vao mpt thi trfldng n h a p khau.
Dfla t r e n cac he so co gian Edt va a fldc Ifldng dfldc de xac dinh nhflng he so' co gian cdn lai theo phfldng trinh tfl (15) de'n (19).
Sau khi da xac dinh dfldc cac hd so' nay, nghien cflu t i n h toan nhflng a n h hflcing cua viec cat giam t h u e quan theo cam ke't cua FTA ASEAN - Trung Qud'e t r e n mat hang sdi det n h a p k h a u chu ye'u tfl cac khia canh:
a n h hfldng ciaa nd de'n ngudn t h u cua cbinh phu, t h a n g dfl ciia ngfldi san xua't, thang dfl cua ngfldi tieu dflng, hieu qua xa hpi va sd cdng an viec lam ma't di theo phfldng t r i n h tfl (3) de'n (6).
Nghien cilu Kmh li si 9(496) • Thing 9/2019 81
FTA ASEAN - Trung Qutfc ...
Dfla tren cac ke't qua dfl bao, cac he sd' co gian lidc Iflpng dfldc b t r e n va mflc thue' suat n h a p khau flu dai t r u n g binh cua mat hang sdi det nhap khau theo bieu thue n h a p khau flu dai dfldc quy dinh trong nghi dinh 153/2017/ND-CP cua Chinh phu ve vide quy dinh bieu thud' nhdp k h a u flu dai dac biet
cua Viet Nam de thiic hien FTA ASEAN - Trung Quoc giai doan 2018 - 2022, ngbien cflu nay la'y ke't qua dfl bao cfla nganh sdi det nam 2018 lam cd sd de tfnh toan nhflng anh hifdng cua tien trinh tfl do hda thfldng mai theo cam ket cua hidp dinh nay. Ket qua cu the dlidc trinh bay d bang 3.
BANG 3: K e t q u a p h a n t i c h a n h hfldrng c u a F T A ASEAN - T r u n g Q u o c d^n c a c c h i t i e u phflc ldi c u a n g a n h sdi d e t V i e t N a m
Nam cdsd: 2018 l.CSc
b i b Gia tri tuy6td6i
Gi^tri Ln ' 2.D6ca gian GiAtri tuyet dfii
S.CSc U 6 i Gia tri tuyfit dSi Gia tri In
Pta
(osaiah)
2281,77
7,733
Edt
.0,501
e
0,601 Qm (tftr) 1014761,59
13,830
6
1,6232
a 34857,775
10,459 (USD/A) 2724,74008
7,910
Edd -0,329
b
386,095 5,956
Qd (tah) 1582047,575
14,274
Emm
•0,793
c
16772,097 9,727
Qs (tah) 1582047575
14,274
Edm
0,830
Pm'
2250,263 7,719
t
0,014
Emd
1,294
M
2703,0.38 7,902
L(nguM)
353838
Es
1,052
Qd'
1568799,890 14,266
Sm
0,391
<Jm'
1016465,9W 13,832
Sd
0,609
Ibiet hai cua chinh phu Thiethaicuanh^sanxuat trong mr6c Hieu qua kinh t6' cho xa h6i thang du cua ngufri tiSu dung Giam viec Iam ciia ngu6i lao d6ng (ngucri)
31.968.720 34189.229 26.847 66.184.797 2963
Nguin:Tinh toan cua tac gia.
Nhfl vay, kd't qua phan tich dfl bad anh hfldng cua FTA ASEAN - Trung Qud'e de'n phflc ldi nganh sdi ddt nhap khau vao Viet Nam (bang 3) cho tha'y:
Mpt la, nam 2018 khi thue nhap k h i u sdi det dfldc cat giam xud'ng theo cam ke't cfla FTA ASEAN-Trung Qudc, thi thiet hai eua Chinh phu la ngudn thu ngdn sach tfl thue' bi ma't di 31,97 trieu USD va phan thidt hai cua doanh nghiep la 34,19 trieu USD, ddng thdi
lam ma't di 2.963 viec lam. Ngudn t h u ngan sach va t h a n g dfl cua cac doanh nghiep san xua't trong nfldc deu hi sut giam di k h a cao va g i n nhfl xa'p xi bang nhau. Day cd the ndi la dieu ta't ye'u khi Viet Nam tham gia cac hiep dinh thfldng mai tii do. Tfl nam 2018 FTA ASEAN-Trung Quoc dang budc vao giai doan hoan t h a n h n e n mflc thud' diipc c i t giam sau, g i n de'n mflc cam ke't cudi cung nen doanh t h u t h u e eua Chinh phu bi giam
8 2 Nghiin cdu Kinh tesi9(496) • Thii^f^^^
sut cung manh. Bdn canh do, p h a n thiet hai cua doanli nghidp san x u a t trong nflde cao hdn phan thidt hai cua Chinh phu, mflc dp thiet h a i cao nay cung la vi dae t h u cua nganh sdi ddt (nganh det may chu ye'u la gia cdng xua't k h i u nen viec chpn nguyen lieu phai theo chi dinh cua ben dat hang), do vEiy khi thue' nhap k h a u dfldc cat giam cang sau thi gia nhap k h a u sdi det se giam m a n h , cac doanh nghiep sdi det trong nfldc cd nguy cd khdng canh t r a n h dfldc sdi ddt n h a p k h i u .
Hai la, tfl do hda thfldng mai cung dem lai ldi ich cho nen kinh td^ Viet N a m . Khi t h u e nhap khau dfldc cat giam theo cam ket cua ASEAN - Trung Qud'e t h i ngfldi tieu dung dfldc ldi nha't, cu the: td'ng t h a n g dfl cua ngfldi tieu dung t h u dfldc len tdi 66,18 trieu USD. Se sanh rieng vdi tiing p h a n thiet hai thi ldi ich ngfldi tieu dung t h u dfldc ga'p 1,94 l l n thiet hai cua doanh nghidp va 2,07 l l n thiet hai cua Chinh phu. Tuy nhien, xet mot each td'ng the thi td'ng mflc thidt hai cua Chinh phu va doanh nghidp k h a cao (66,16 trieu USD), xa'p xi bang t h a n g dfl cua ngfldi tieu dung thu dfldc, nen ldi ich tdng t h e rdng cho xa hpi v i n dfldng nhflng khdng cao, chi cd 26.847 USD.
4. K^t l u a n
Kd't qua nghien cflu da cho tha'y, nhflng mat dfldc va ma't khi Viet N a m t h a m gia vao cac hidp dinh thfldng mai tfl do thdng qua cac chi tieu kinh te xa hpi cd ban. Khi c i t giam thue' nhap k h i u trong n g a n h sdi det theo cam ket trong FTA ASEAN - Trung Quo'c, thi ngudn thu n g a n sach cua Chinh p h u bi giam sut va cd a n h hfldng khdng td't dd'i vdi cac doanh nghiep va viec lam trong nfldc, nhflng hidu qua kinh te va t h a n g dfl tieu dung mang lai ldi ich tdng thd rdng v i n co gia tri dfldng. Di^u nay cho tha'y tinh dung dan ciia viec t h a m gia cae FTA ciia Chinh phu Vidt Nam. Tuy nhidn, de p h a t huy hieu qua cua viec thflc hien cac cam ke't c i t giam thue' quan vd khia eanh kinh td' thi Chinh phu, doanh nghidp va ngfldi lao dpng can phai n h a n thflc dfldc dau la diem tich cflc va
tieu cflc lien quan tdi hoat ddng kinh te' cua minh de p h a t huy td't hdn nfla nhflng ldi thd' ma minh dang cd.
Do do, dflng trfldc cac FTA,' cac doanh nghiep nganh sdi det mudn tdn tai va canh t r a n h dfldc vdi eac san p h i m nflde ngoai thi can phai cd nhflng nd Iflc thay doi, nhii: cai thien he tho'ng san xua't, may mdc de nang cao ve sd' Ifldng va chat Iflpng cho san pham; nang cao trinh dp quan ly; xay dflng mdt chie'n Ifldc kinh doanh phu hdp vdi doanh nghiep de phat huy the' manh cua doanh nghidp, dat dfldc muc tieu d l r a va nang cao nang Iflc canh tranh; dac biet, de cd the hdi nhap kinh td' t h a n h cdng, dd'i phd vdi nhiing tac ddng xa'u cua hpi nhap, ddi hdi cac doanh nghidp phai CO n b a n thflc diing dan ve hdi nhap, nam ro nhflng cd hdi, thach thflc hay nhflng quy tlinh den tfl eac FTA. Tuy nhien, de lam dfldc nhflng viec nay, cac doanh nghiep c l n de'n sfl hd trd cua Chinh phu. Vi vay, Chinh phu cln:
(i) Truyen truyen va phd bid'n vd ndi dung va y nghia cua cac FTA, nhflng cd hpi ma cae FTA CO the dem lai, hfldng d i n va thflc hien quy tac xua't xfl; van h a n h he thd'ng cIp C/0 (gia'y chflng n h a n xua't xfl ngudn gdc cua hang hda)... cho cac doanh nghiep trong nfldc, ngfldi ndng dan, n h a cung ca'p..., nham tang nhan thflc, sfl hieu biet va sfl t h a m gia cua hp vao qua trinh tfl do hda thfldng mai dd cac doanh nghiep n i m b i t dfldc cac cd hpi tfl cac FTA, nang eao hdn nfla ty le t a n dung flu dai trong eac FTA, tfl do cd the b a n che' dfldc thiet hai cho cac nganh san xua't trong nfldc;
(ii) Tuyen truydn va pho bi^n thdng tin nhieu hdn nfla dd'n cac doanh nghidp ve rao can ky thuat; dau tfl xay dflng cd s6 ha t i n g , tang cfldng ho trd nghien cflu, flng dung cac tieu chuan ky t h u a t hdp ly; dao tao can bd ky t h u a t cha't Ifldng hieu ro ve cac tieu chuan ky t h u a t de cd the hd trd cho cac doanh nghiep trong vide dam bao cac tieu chuan ky thuat khi xua't khau hang hda sang cac nfldc dd'i tac;
(iii) Cd nhidu chinh sach khuye'n khi'cb d l u tfl phat tridn nganh sdi ddt; s i p xep lai cac
Nghiin cdu Kinh Hsi 9(496) - Thing 9/2019 83
FTA ASEAN - Trung Quoc
doanh nghiep qud'e doanh nham tang cfldng nang liic canh tranh cho toan nganh; dao tao ngudn nhan Iflc cd trinh dp cao cho nganh, thuc day boat ddng nghien cflu khoa hoc, cdng nghe./.
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Ngay nhftn bai: 16-7-2019 Ngay duyet dang: 20-8-2019
84 Nghmn cOu Kinh te si 9(496) - Thang g,