KHOA HOC CdNG NGHE
IVGHl£l\] CLTU X A Y DUIXIG BAIXI H O IXIGAP L U T D O T A C OPIXIG CLIA BIEIV D O I K H t H A L I P H U C V U Q U Y H O A C H SLT D U I V G D A T BEIXI VUIXIG
T A I H U Y E I V D A i LOC, T i l \ l H Q U A l V G I V A M
Nguydn Hthi Ngft', Duong Qudc Ndn^
TX^MTAT
Bai bio ndy trinh bay k^t qua nghi&n cuu su thay ddi ciia khi hau trong vong 3 thap ky (1980-2010) fren dia ban huy^n Dai Ldc, dong thdi xay dung ban do ngap lut d^ h5 tro cho vi6c ra quy^t dinh frong quan ly vd quy hoach sir dung dat. K^t qua nghifen ciiru cho thay, luOTig mua trung binh va so ngay mua binh quan cac thang giai doan 2001-2010 so vdi giai dogn 1981-1990 da co xu hirong tang d cac thing miia xuan va miia ddng nhung giam vko cac thang miia he. Nhi$t dp tai khu vuc nghien ciiu trong vong 30 nam qua co xu hudng giam xudng va it khdc nghiet hon. S6 con Iu hang nam trong vong 30 nSm qua thay ddi khong theo mpt xu hudng nhat dmh, nhung dinh lu trong 3 thap ky qua tang l6n ro rdt, dSc bi6t cao nhat la con lu nam 2009. Tinh hinh ngap lut d ifinh lu tir bao ddng II trd ldn se xuat hiSn d 16/18 xa vd tbi tran (trir 2 xa vimg niii cao Dai Hung va Dai Son). Ngap nhi^u nhdt la d cac xa dong bdng thap nhu Dai Hidp, thi tran Ai Nghia, Dai Quang, Dai Cudng. Ty le dien tich ngap toin huyen ididng lon (7,72%-14,43% tiiy theo miic bao ddng).
Tuy nbi^n, ty 16 di€n tich dat trong liia va dat trong cay hang nam bi rui ro ngap khd ldn (31,24%-54,4% tiiy theo miic bdo dgng).
T\i\s!a.6a: Bidn doi khi hau, ban do ngap lift, ddt trdng lua, quy hoach sd dung ddt, buy$n Bai Loc.
1 . BAT VAN BE
Bien ddi khi hdu Id mpt trong nhiing thdch thtic Idn nhat md nhdn loai phdi ddi mat trong the ky 21 (IPCC, 2007). La mdt trong sd nhiing qudc gia dd bi tdn thuong nhat trudc cac tac ddng cua bien doi khi hdu trdn todn cau, Viet Nam dang phai hung chiu nhidu anh hudng ndng nd do con ngudi gdy ra, bao gom cdc hidn tugng thdi hdt cue doan nhu h ^ han, bao lu, tinh trang nudc bidn ddng, xdm nhap man, ciing nhu su bat thudng cua lupng mua va cac hinh thai thdi tidt khdc. Neu bien doi khi hgu khdng dupc giam thieu mpt each hidu qua, thi den cudi the ky 21 ndy, Viet Nam se mat di it nhdt 12,2% didn tich dat, hien dang Id noi cu tru cua 23% ddn sd va thdm chi Id mat di mdt con sd Idn hon dien ti'ch ddt mdu md bao gdm mpt nita khu vuc ddng bdng trung thap, ciing chinh la mdt trong nhiing vua Itia quan trpng nhdt cua the gidi do Iu lut vd xam thuc man (AFAP, 2014).
Tat ca nhimg thidn tai do bien ddi khi hau gay ra ddu tdc ddng gian ti^p hay true ti^p ddn cudc sdng vd hoat ddng san xudt cua ngudi ddn. Nhimg tdc dpng ndy cd the Idm suy giam kha nang cua con ngudi trong viec dam bao cudc sdng, vupt qua ddi ngheo.
' Khoa Tai nguyen Dat va Mdi tnidng nong nghiep. Tnrdng Dai hpc Ndng Lam, Dai hpc Hue
Tu xua tdi nay, lu lut ludn la mdi de dpa hdng dau vd da gdy ra nhidu fhiet hai ve ngudi vd cua. Cung vdi su tang tmdng ciia cdc ngdnh ldnh te va su phat trien cua xa hdi, ddi hoi cdng tdc quan Iy, phdng chdng thidn tai, dac bidt Id Iu lut can phdi dupc quan tdm dting mtic nhdm dam bao miic dp an toan ngdy cdng cao cho cdc hoat ddng san xudt, dac bidt Id san xuat ndng nghiep va han chd ddn muc thap nhat ve thidt hai cho ngudi ddn. Dai Ldc la mdt huydn trung du d phia tdy bac ciia tinh Quang Nam, huydn nam trong vimg khi hdu nhiet ddi gid miia, ndng dm vd mua nhieu tiieo mua (UBND huyen Dai Ldc, 2011a). Cac Ioai thidn tai xay ra bat thudng vol cudng do manh nhu gid bao, Iu lut, dp thap nhiet dai, mua Idn, ban hdn keo ddi da gay thiet hai nang ne cho huyen, anh hudng nghidm trpng den su phdt tridn kmh td vd ddi sdng cua ngudi ddn (UBND huyen Dai Ldc, 2011b).
Trong fhdi gian qua, da xuat hidn nhidu nguy ca lam giam dien tich cdc loai ddt tren dia ban huydn trong dd cd nguyen nhdn do anh hudng cua bien doi khi hau md dac biet la hidn tupng ngap lut va sat Id.
Trong tiidi gian tdi, neu chinh quydn dia phuang khdng cd cdc bidn phdp ting phd cu thd va hieu qua vdi Iu lut, sat Id giam thieu thiet hai thi nguy ca xay ra tinh trang mat an ninh luong thuc, khd khan trong viec quan Iy quy hoach su dung dat la mdt thuc t^ md
KHOA HOC C d N G N G H l
huydn Dai Ldc cung nhu vimg duyen hai Nam Tmng bd phai ddi m a t Dudi ddy Id ket qua nghidn cuu su thay doi oia khi hdu trong vdng 3 thdp ky qua (1980- 2010) trdn dia bdn huydn Dai Ldc, tmh Quang Nam, ddng thdi xdy dung ban dd ngdp lut dd hd trp cho vide ra quydt dinh trong lua chon phuong an quy hoach su dung dat long ghep cdc yeu td bien doi khi hdu phuc vu phdt tridn ndng nghiep trong thdi gian tdi.
2 . PHUONG PHAP NGHBV CUU
Dd thuc hidn nghien cuu nay, cdc tdc gia da sir dung nhimg phuong phdp sau:
- Phuong phdp thu thdp tdi lieu: phuong phdp nay duac thuc hidn trdn ca so ke thua, phdn tich vd tong hpp cac ngudn tdi bdu, tu lieu, sd heu Ihdng tin cd lidn quan mdt cdch cd chpn lpc. Dac biet la sd lieu vd khi tupng thuy van ttt nSm 1980 ddn nay, cdc Ioai ban dd hien cd tren dia ban huydn nhu ban do hidn trgng sir diing dat, ban dd dia hinh, ban dd quy hoach sir dung ddt, ban dd phdn bd mira vd cac Ioai sd lieu, tdi Iidu lidn quan khdc.
- Phuong phdp dieu tra khao sat thuc dia: cdc tdc gia da di dieu tra thtrc dia dd so sdnh, ddi chidu cdc khu vuc khdc nhau; kiem chtmg vd khdng dinh nhimg ket qua dat dugc tir qud trinh phdn tich vd tinh todn, ddng tiidi thu thdp bd sung cdc sd lieu, tdi lidu thirc td tai dia bdn nghidn curu.
- Phuang phap chuydn gia: phuang phdp ndy dupc thuc hien thdng qua cdc budi gap gd true tiep can bd cac phdng, ban cua huydn, cdn bd dia chinh vd ndng nghidp cua cdc xa dd tham van y Iden vd kdt qua vd dp tin cdy cua kdt qua nghien cuu.
- Phuong phdp ban do: xdy dung ban do dp ddc, ban do dang tri mua, ban dd ngap lut bdng cac phdn mdm GIS.
+ Ban dd phdn bd mira cua nam mua nhi^u huy^n Dai Ldc dupc bdc tir ban do phdn bd mua cua nam mira nhieu tmh Quang Nam vd bien tap lai trdn phan mem Mapinfo 11.0 vd Arcgis 10.1;
+ Ban do dp ddc huyen Dai Lpc dupc thdnh lap ttr md hmh sd dd cao DEM cua huydn vdi dp phdn giai 30 m X 30 m lay tir website gdex.cr.usgs.gov/gdex/ bdng phan mem Arcgis 10.1;
+ Ban do ngdp lut dupc thdnh lap tren ca sd tmy van nhirng viing cd dp cao dia hinh thap hon mtic lu
cdc miic bao dpng tai vimg nghien cuu. Sau do, chdng ghep vdi cdc Idp ban do phan bd mua, ban U dp ddc, ban do hidn trang su dung dat trdn ph^
mem Arcgis 10.1. Do nhung ban che vd m$t sd li^
tai dia ban nghidn ciiu chua cd bdn do dat ndn nghifin, cuu ndy bd qua budc chdng ghep vdi ban do dat.
- Phuang phdp phdn tich va xu Iy sd Iidu: cac sd lieu thu thap dugc cdc tdc gia phdn tich va xii Iy trfin phan mem Excel.
3. KFT QUA NGHBI CUU VA THAO LUAN
3.1. Thay ddi v^ khi hdu trong 30 ndm qua i huydn D?ii Ldc
3.1.1. Nhidt dp
-*-Qiai dofO 1980-2000 HB-Giai doaa 2001-2010
Bi^u do 1. Nhidt do Idn nhdt cdc thdng qua cdc giai doan tai htqrdn D ^ Ldc (Ngudn: Bii Khi tuang Thuy van Khu vuc Trung Trung bd, 2013)
Bidu dd 2. Nhidt dO thap nhat cac thdng qua cdc giai doan t?ii huydn Dai LOc (IVgudn: Dai Khi tirong Thuy van Khu vuc Tnm Tmngbd, 2013)
Sd Udu d bidu dd 1, 2 vd 3 cho tiiay, nhidt dp cao nhat tiidng d tiidp nidn 2001-2010 cd xu hudng th^P hon khoang l^C so vdi hai thdp nidn tiirdc (1980- 2000), dac bidt giam manh vdo thdng 3 khoang 2,1"C.
Trong khi nhidt dg cao nhat cua thdp nidn gdn d^
2001-2010 khdng vupt qua 40''C tiii hai tiidp nifin 72 NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY 2 - THANG 1 \ /2014
KHOA HOC CdNG NGHE trudc dd, nhidt dd da Idn ddn 40°C vdo thang 5 va 6.
Kdt qua dieu tra ciing cho thdy, trong 10 nam trd Iai ddy, nhidt dp thdp nhdt tai viing ndy la IS^C. Cd the ndi, nhiet dp cao nhdt vd thap nhdt 10 ndm trd lai ddy so vdi nhung thdp nien tmac cd xu hudng it khac nghidt hon, thdp hon 1°C vdo cdc thdng mua he va am hon 1,1''C cdc Ihdng miia ddng.
hudng tdng manh vdo miia xuan, thu vd ddng, giam vao mua he. Didu nay cd thd gdy ra tinh trang han hdn kdo ddi vdo thang 5, 6 va lu lut ldn xay ra vdo thang 9,10 tai dia ban huydn Dai Ldc b-ong tuong lai.
B i ^ dd 3. Tdng giam nhidt dO (min, ma^O giai dogn 2001-2010 so voi 2 thdp nidn hirdc (1980-2000) tgi
huydn Dai LOc
(Nguon: Dai Khi tuQng Thuy van Khu vuc Tmng Tmngbd, 2013)
3.1.2 Mua
Bi^u do 4. Lupng mua trung bmh cdc &dng qua 3 thdp I ^ tai huydn Dgi LOc
(Ngudn: Bai Khi tuang Thuy vSn Khu vuc Trung Tmngbd, 2013)
Sd lieu d bidu do 4 cho thdy, trong thdp nidn fa-d Iai ddy (1991-2010), Iupng mua trung binh cdc thdng cd su thay ddi rd ret so vdi hai thdp nidn trudc.
Lugng mtra cd xu hudng cao hon vao cdc thdng mua xuan (tii thdng 2 den thdng 4), miia thu va mua ddng (tir thang 8 den thdng 12). Trong khi dd, mua he lgi khd han hon do lugng mua thdng 5 vd thdng 6 thap.
K^t qua nghien ciiu ciing cho thay, lupng mua trung binh cdc thang trong nhiing nam trd Iai day cd xu
Bieu dd 5.86 ngdy mua trung binh cdc thdng qua 3 Ihdp ky tai liuydn Dgi LOc
(Ngudn: Bai Khi timng Thuy vdn Khu vw: Tnmg Trung bd, 2013)
Qua bieu dd 5 vd hinh 1, cd thd thdy sd ngay mua tmng binh cdc thdng trong nhiing nam gan ddy cd xu hudng tang ldn so vdi thdi ky trudc do, trii thang 6 vd thdng 11. Kdt qua nghidn ciiu cho thay, cdc thang 12 cua giai doan 1991-2000 tdng Idn 5 ngdy vd 7 ngay ddi vdi giai doan 2001-2010. Thang 6 va thdng 11, sd ngdy mua giam so vdi cdc thang giai doan 1981-1990.
Hmh 1. Ban do phdn bd mua ndm mua nhi^u huydn Dai Ldc, tinh Quang Nam 3.1.3. Lu lut
Ket qua nghien ciiu d bidu dd 6 vd 7 cho thay, sd con Iu hdng nam trong vdng 30 ndm qua fhay doi khdng theo mOt xu hudng nhat dinh, tdng giam that thudng qua cdc thdi ky nhung dinh lu trong 3 tiiap ky qua da tang Idn rd rdt Dmh lu cao nhdt do dupc tai ham Ai Nghia giai doan 1981-1990 la 985 cm vdo 73
KHOA HQC CONG NGHfi
ngdy 16 thang 10 nam 1990 do mua ldn keo dai lidn tuc trong 3 ngay (tir ngdy 14 ddn ngdy 16 thang 10) vdi lupng mua 94-137 mm/ngdy. Dinh Ifi cao nhdt giai doan 1991-2000 la 1.037 cm vdo ngay 3 tiidng 11 nam 1999 do Iupng mtra cue ldn xay ra vdo ngdy 3 (lupng mua Ien den 500,6 mm/ngdy). Dinh lu cao nhdt giai dogn 2001-2010 ldn den 1.077 cm vdo ngay 30 tiidng 9 nam 2009 do mua ldn keo ddi lidn tuc 2 ngay vdi Iuong mua 150-256,7 mm/ngay. Su tdng ldn ve Iupng mua vd sd ngay mtra khien cho mtic nudc lu trong nhung nam gan ddy da tang ldn, muc dO thidt hai gdy ra ngay cdng ldn dac bidt Id trong cac hoat ddng san xuat ndng nghidp.
gian tdi trdn d;a bdn huydn Id hdt siic cdp thidt. Voi gia dinh rang vdi Iuang mua tdng ldn vd phan b^
nhu ban do phdn bd mua nam mua nhidu ciia huyen Dai LOc d hinh 1, da tien hdnh xdy dung cac ban dd ngdp lut trdn ca sd cdc muc lii bdo ddng I (dinh Iu 650 cm), bdo dOng II (dinh Iu 800 cm) va bao dOng III (dinh Iu 900 cm) tai tram Ai Nghia tren sdng Vu Gia chay qua dia ban huydn. Bang vide ting dung cdc phan mdm GIS, sd lieu do djic is cac tram khi tupng thuy van kdt hpp vdi khao sat thuc dia, phdng van ngudi dan, can bO dia phuong de xdy dung ban do ngdp lut, ket qua dugrc thi hidn a cac hinh 2 ddn hinh 7.
Bidu do 6. Di§n bidn sd con Iii tir miic bdo ddng II va dmh lu giai dogn 1981-2010 tai huydn Dai LOc
(Ngudn: Bai Khi tirong Thuy van Khu virc Tmng Tmngbd. 2013)
Hmh 2. Ban dd ngdp lut dat LUC, BHK vol mirc IQ dudi bdo ddng U huydn Dai LOc Ghi chu: LUC-ddt trdng Ida; BHK-di't bang trong cay hang ndm khic
Bidu do 7. Didn bidn sd con IQ vd finh Iu 3 thdp k^ tai huydn Dai LOc
(Ngudn: Dai Khi tuang Thuy van Khu vuc Tnmg Tmngbd, 2013)
3.2. Xdy dyng ban dd n g | p lut huyen Dai Lpc Vdi lupng mtra, sd ngay mua cd xu hudng ngay cdng tdng ldn, dac bidt Id vdo cdc thdng miia mua thi nguy ca lu Itit trdn dia bdn huydn Dai Ldc se trdm trpng han trong tuong Iai. Hon nua, dinh Id trong vdng 3 thap ky qua cd xu hudng ngay cang gia tdng, cho nen, viec ting phd vdi Id lut trong thdi
Hmh 3. Ban do ngap lut ddt LUC, BHK mtic Iii dudi bdo ddng m tai huydn Dai Ldc
Hinh 4. Ban d6 ngap lut ddt LUC, BHK mtic bdo dOng i n tgi huydn Dgi LOc
Ifl vugt.
74 NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY 2 - THANG 11/2014
KHOA HOC C O N G N G H E
Hmh 5. Bdn dd ngdp lut miic Iii dudi bdo ddng IE todn huydn Dgi LOc
Hinh 6. Bdn dd n g ^ Iiit miic IQ dudi bdo ddng IU todn huydn Dgi LOc
Hinh 7. Ban 6.6 ngdp lut miic IQ vupt bdo ddng III todn huydn Dai LOc
Sd Iidu d cac hinh 2 ddn hinh 7 vd bang 1 cho.
thay, neu dinh lu dudi miic bdo dOng II thi 7,72% tdng didn tich dat tu nhidn ciia huydn Dai Ldc, 31,27% didn tich ddt trdng Iua vd cay hang ndm se bi ngdp.
Neu miic lu vugt mtic bdo ddng II nhtmg dudi miic bdo ddng III thi 11,39% tdng didn tich dat tir nhidn huydn Dai LOc, 45,17% didn tich ddt ti-dng lua I'd cay hang ndm se bi ngap. N^u miic Iu vupt miic
bdo ddng III (chdng hgn bang dinh lu ndm 2009 Id 1.077 cm) tili 14,13% tdng didn tich ddt tu nhidn cua huydn Dai Ldc, 54,4% didn tich dat trdng lua vd cay hdng nam se hi ngdp.
Bdng 1. Ty Id didn tich rui ro n g ^ iing vdi cdc miic bdo ddng tai trgm Ai Nghia
Chi tieu
Ty le dien tich rui ro ngap (%
so vdi tong dien tich tu nhien) Ty le dien tich dat trong lua.
cay hang nam rui ro ngap (%
so vdi tdng dien tich ddt trdng Ilia, cay hang nam)
Dinhlu tren miic bao dong I, dudi bao ddng II
7,72
31,27
Dinhlu tren miic bao dpng II, dudi bao
ddng III
11,39
45,17 Dinh lu
tren miic bao dong III
14.13
54,4
400 - . - p —
250 - - 200 - • - - 50 •- - - 00 - - - 5 0 - - -
mUYn
/m
Bidu dd 8. Didn tich dat Ida, hong cay hdng ndm rui ro n g ^ d huydn Dai LOc vdi dinh Iii dudi bdo dpng II
Sd Udu d cdc bieu dd 8, 9 vd 10 cho thdy, tinh hinh ngap lut khi dinh Iu tir bdo dOng II trd Idn se xuat hien d 16/18 xa va thi tran ciia huyen (trir 2 xa vimg nui cao Dai Hung vd Dai Son). Ngdp nhieu nhdt la d cdc xa ddng bang thap nhu Dai Hiep, Dai Quang, Dai Cudng, thi tran Ai Nghia. Ty Id dien tich ngap todn huyen khdng Idn (7%-15% didn tich). Tuy nhidn, ty Id didn tich dat trdng Iua vd dat trdng cdy hang ndm bi rui ro ngdp khd Idn (30-55% didn tich). Do dd, trong phuong an quy hoach sir dung ddt cua k^ quy hoach tdi, can thiet phai xem xet, bd tri cdc cdng tiinh xdy dung ciing nhu cdc khu, cum cdng nghidp lang nghe hpp Iy, tranh cac chd thap trung. Ddc biet,
KHOA HOC CONG NGHE trong cdc boat dOng san xudt ndng nghiep, can phai
chil y den vide dau tu xdy dung, gia c6 he thdng dd ke chdng lii, chuydn doi thdi vu, cdy trdng de trdnh thdi diem Iu va ling phd cd hieu qua vdi Ioai thien tai nay.
m
Bi^u do 9. Dien tich dat lua, tr6ng cay hang nam rfii ro ng$p or huyen Bai Lpc voi dinh IQ diroi b^o dfing HI
rB-
^^ « V ^^ (5^ 9* 9* V <s''' "^ ^^ «* «* <S* 0*
Bidu d d 10. D i e n tich d a t Iua, t r d n g c d y h d n g n d m riii r o n g d p a h u y d n D a i LOc v d i d i n h lu v u p t bdo dOng i n
4. KET LUAN
D a i Ldc la m d t h u y e n t r u n g d u d p h i a tay b d c c u a t i n h Q u a n g N a m n d m t r o n g v i m g k h i h d u n h i e t d d i gid m i i a , n d n g d m v a m u a n h i d u t h e o m u a . T r o n g n h i i n g n a m q u a , c d c Ioai t h i d n tai x a y r a b a t t h u d n g vdi c u d n g d p m a n h n h u gid b a o , Iu lut, dp t h a p n h i e t ddi, m t r a Idn, h a n h a n k e o dai d a g d y t h i e t hai n a n g n d c h o h u y d n .
L u p n g m u a t m n g b i n h v a sd n g a y m u a b i n h q u a n c d c tiidng giai d o a n 2001-2010 s o vdi giai d o a n 1981-1990 d a cd x u h i r d n g t a n g d cdc t h d n g m i i a x u d n v a m i i a m u a n h u n g g i d m vdo c d c t h d n g m u a h e .
N h i d t d d tgi k h u vtic n g h i e n ciiu t r o n g v d n g 3 0 nan q u a cd x u h u d n g g i a m x u d n g vd it k h d c n g h i d t hon S d c o n lu h d n g n a m t r o n g v d n g 3 0 n a m q u a t h a y ddi k h d n g t h e o mOt x u h u d n g n h d t d i n h , t d n g giam thi\
t h u d n g q u a c d c t h d i k y n h t m g d i n h lu t r o n g 3 thap 1^
q u a t a n g l e n rd r e t d a c b i d t c a o n h a t Id c o n lii nam 2009.
T r o n g t u o n g Iai, tinh h i n h n g d p l u t d d i n h lu ti b d o d d n g II t r d len s d x u a t h i d n d 1 6 / 1 8 x a va thi t r a n (trir 2 x a v i i n g m i l c a o D a i H u n g vd Dgi Son), N g d p n h i d u n h a t Id d c a c x a d d n g b d n g t h a p nhu Dgi H i d p , D a i Q u a n g , D a i C u d n g , t h i t r a n Ai N g h a T y Id d i d n tich n g d p t o d n h u y d n k h d n g l d n (7,72^
14,43% tiiy t h e o m i i c b a o d d n g ) . T u y n h i e n , ty le d i d n ti'ch d d t t r d n g Iua v a d a t t r o n g c d y h d n g nam bi r u i r o n g d p k h a l d n (31,24%-54,4% tiiy t h e o miic bao d O n g ) .
C a n cd n h i i n g n g h i d n ciiu v d s u t h a y d d i thdi ti^t k h i h d u t r o n g k h o a n g t h a i g i a n ddi h o n (50 ndm, lOfl n a m ) dd cd t h e k d t Iudn c h i n h x d c b i d n doi khi hau tai h u y d n D a i L d c . T r d n c a s d d d , x d y d u n g kich ban b i d n d o i k h i h d u c h o h u y e n c u n g n h u m d p h d n g cac logi r u i r o fhien t a i d o b i d n d d i k h i h d u g d p p h k p h u c v u c d n g tdc q u a n ly, q u y h o a c h v a s u d u n g dat dai cd h i d u qud.
LOI CAM ON
Cicticgiaxm cim on duanACCCU,HiLandi tai ti-a kinh phi dd thuc hien nghien cdu nay.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. IPCC, 2007. Chmate Change 2007: Synthetic Report - Summary for Policymaker. An Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Chmate Change, Spain, 12-17 November 2007.
2. The Austrahan Foundation for tiie Peoples of Asia and tiie Pacific (AFAP), 2014. Building Capadlj for Chmate Change Adaptation. See more at http://www.afap.org/index.php/afap-vietnam/afap vietnam-cUmate-change).
3. UBND huydn Dai Ldc, 2011a. Quy hoach sii dung dat den nam 2020 va kd hoach sii dung ddtky ddu (2011 - 2015) cua huydn Dai Ldc, tinh Quang Nam.
4. UBND huydn Dgi Lpc, 2011b. Bao edo tinh hinh kinh te - xa hOi giai dogn 2006 - 2010, kd hoacli phdt trien kinh te - xa hdi giai doan 2011 - 2015 va nhirng tidm nang. loi the can duoc khai tiidc hong thdi gian ddn ciia huydn Dai Ldc.
76 NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY 2 - THANG I \ /2014
KHOA HOC C 6 N G NGHE
5. Ddi Khi tupng Thuy van Khu vuc Trung tiudng khu vuc Trung Tmng bd tir nam 1980 den Tmng bd, 2013. Nidn san Khi tupng thuy van vd Mdi ndm 2010.
STUDY ON BUHDING OF FLOODING MAP BY IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR SUSTAINABLE LAND USE PLANNING IN DAI LOC DISTRICT, QUANG NAM PROVINCE
Nguyen Huu Ngu, Duong Quoc Non Summary
This paper aims to study on change of climate within 3 decades (1980-2010) in Dai Loc district simultaneously, to create flooding map for supporting to make-decision m land use planning and management. The results show that, monthly average rainfall and number of ramy day m period of 2001- 2010 in comparison with period of 1981-1990 have tended to increase in spring and winter months but it bad tended to decrease in summer months. Temperature within past 30 years have tended to decrease and less inclement. The number of floods have changed but it did not follow certam trend. Crest of a flood within 3 decaces has significandy raised, especially the highest flooding water level occured in 2009. The risk of flood will be occured m 16/18 communes (except 2 high mountam commune Dai Hung and Dai Son) when crest of flood reaches alert level 2 and over. The low delta communes such as Dai Hiep, Ai Nghia, Dai Quang, Dai Cuong will be flooded with large area. The rate of whole district flooding area is not large (from 7.72% to 14.43% depending on alert levels). However, the rate of flooding area of paddy land and annual crop land will be flooded quite large (from 31.24% to 54.4% dependmg on alert levels).
Keywords: Climate change, hooding map, paddy land, land use planning, Dai Loc distnct Ngudi phdn bidn: TS. Hodng Tudn Hidp
Ngdy nhdn bdi: 5/6/2014 Ngdy tiidng qua phdn bidn: 8/7/2014 Ngdy duydt ddng: 15/7/2014
