Khi cong cu lai sudt da 'tdi hqn"
P H A M ntnj H O N G T H A I
.3^di viii phdn tich tdc dong cua ldi sudt din thi tn^fng tai chinh, qua do, ddnh gid tinh hiiu
^ ^ qud cua loqi cdng cu ldi sudt trong titng giai doqn dieu chinh cila Ngdn hdng Nhd ni/dc.
Cdch day 1-2 ndm, mdi Idn dieu chinh ldi sudt Id thi tn^fng tin dung, cdng nhU chiing khodn diu cd nhOng tdc ddng mqnh me, nhUng nhitng lan diiu chinh ldi sudt gdn ddy, ddc biet Id lan gidm ldi sudt ngdy 18-3-2014, thi tntdng khdng thi hiin tdc ddng tUdng tit. Cd le, trong boi cdnh tinh hinh nd xdu dien tie'n phiic tqp, cdng vdi sac cdu yiu, vai tro cua ldi sudt dd "tdi hqn ".
1. V a i t r o c u a l a i s u a t
Lai sua't la t y le m a theo do t i l n lai dflde ngfldi vay t r a cho vide sii d u n g t i l n m a ho vay tfl mot ngfldi eho vay. TM trfldng tai cMnh t h u d n g p h a n bidt 3 loai lai sua't: (i) lai sua't eMnh saeh la lai sua't m a cac n g a n h a n g t r u n g Udng ed t h i k i l m soat dUde t r u e tid'p, d Viet N a m do c M n h la lai sua't cd ban; (ii) lai sua't h e n n g a n h a n g la lai sua't eac n g a n h a n g thUdng m a i cho vay lan n h a u ; (iii) lai su§Lt thUdng m a i la lai sua't cac n g a n h a n g thUdng m a i vay hoac cho vay eae doi tUdng k h d n g p h a i la n g a n h a n g trong n i n kinh te, vi du lai sua't h u y dong, lai sua't eho vay.
V l cd b a n 3 loai lai s u a t n a y d i u ed hdn he m a t t M e t vdi n h a u va t u a n t h u theo nguyen tae: (i) < (ii) < (iii).
6 n i n kinh td' eua t h i trUdng l a n h m a n h , d l d a m bao gia t r i cua lai sua't thfle so vdi lai sua't d a n h ngMa, lai sua't edn p h a i t u a n t h u theo ba't phfldng t r i n h : L l < L2 < L3 < L4.
Trong do: L l la mflc l a m p h a t , L2 la lai sua't h u y dong, L 3 la lai sua't eho vay, L4 la ty sua't k h a n a n g s i n h ldi binh q u a n xa hdi t r o n g ciing k y b a n . Ndi dd h i l u hdn la, lai sxi^t h u y dong p h a i cao hdn mfle lam p h a t , nhfl t h e mdi cd t h e d a m bao ldi ich eho ngfldi gdi t i l n . Tie'p t h e o la vide eho vay p h a i t h u lai cao hdn lai sua't h u y dong, bdi n g a n h a n g la to' chflc kinh td', k h d n g t h e lam dich vu k h d n g eong cho d o a n h ngMdp. H u y dpng dUdc von, cho v a y r a p h a i cd chdnh lech dd b u vao cae eM p M q u a n Iy.
Van d l n a n giai nha^t la lai sua't cho vay p h a i nhd hdn k h a n a n g sinh ldi eua n i n k i n h te. Neu L3>L4, dfldng nMen, eae doanh ngMdp lam a n binh thudng, ehan cMnh se khdng t h e ton tai. \ ^ t h i , nhidm v u eua N h a nUde la lUa chon mflc t r a n lai suS^t hoac sfl dung lai sua't cd b a n sao eho phfl hdp d i l u kidn cu t h i va muc tidu kinh t e - x a hoi cua minh, dong thdi, phai ludn t i n h den va cd nhiing bien p h a p k h l c phue h a u q u a m a t t r a i ludn song h a n h cua ea vide n a n g eao h a y h a tha'p lai sua't, nd'u khdng, se va'p p h a i vdng xoay mdi eua l a m p h a t t u y theo mflc do p h a n flng cua eac ehu thd k i n h td'.
2 . C o n g c u l a i s u a t d a " t d i h a n " ? Tinh tfl t h a n g 11-2011 den nay, Ngan h a n g N h a nflde da 8 l a n d i l u ehinh lai sua't.
T r a n lai sua't b a t d i u tfl 14% giam xuohg cae mflc 13%; 12%; 11%; 9%; 8%, 7,5%; 7% va dd'n ngay 18-3-2014, tM cM edn 6% vdi ky b a n h u y dong dfldi 6 t h a n g . N l i i t i n h ridng tfl n a m 2013 dd'n nay, Ngan h a n g N h a nflde ed 4 l a n dieu ehinh giam lai sua't. Cu t h e la:
- Ngay 26-3-2013, N g a n h a n g N h a nflde giam 1% eac lai s u a t ehu chot gom t a i cKp vd'n (cdn 8%), t a i chie't k h a u (6%), eho vay q u a ddm trong t h a n h toan h e n n g a n h a n g (9%), lai sua't cho vay 5 linh vflc flu tien (10%/nam). T r a n lai sua't h u y dong giam tfl 8% xud'ng 7,5%/nam.
Pham Huu Hdng Thai, TS., Tnrdng dai hoc Tai chiiih - Marketing,
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Khi cong cu lai suat
- Ngay 10-5-2013, N g a n h a n g N h a nflde giam tid'p 1% eac lai s u a t chu chot. Lai s u a t tai ca'p vd'n cdn 7%/nam; lai sua't t a i cMd't kha'u edn 5%/nam; lai s u a t cho v a y qua ddm trong t h a n h toan dien tfl h d n n g a n h a n g edn 8%/nam. Lai sutft cho vay vdi cac Tinb vfle flu tien giam cdn 10%/nam.
- Ngay 28-6-2013, Ngan h a n g N h a nflde giam 0,5% t r i n lai s u a t h u y dong k y b a n 1 t h a n g den dudi 6 t h a n g xud'ng 7%/nam, ky h a n 6 t h a n g trd Idn dUde t h a noi, t r a n lai sua't ky b a n dudi 1 t h a n g con 1,2%/nam.
T r i n lai sua't USD cung giam 0,75% xud'ng cdn 1,25%/nam.
- Ngay 18-3-2014, Ngan h a n g N h a nude giam tid'p 0,5% cac lai sutft ehu chd't. Lai sua^t tai ca'p vdn tfl 7%/nam xud'ng 6,5%/nam; lai sua't t a i c h i i t khaii tfl 5%/nam xud'ng 4,5%/nam; lai sua't cho vay qua dem trong t h a n h toan didn tfl lien ngan h a n g va cho vay bfl d i p thid'u h u t vd'n trong t h a n h toan bfl trfl cua Ngan h a n g N h a nflde doi vdi cae n g a n h a n g tfl 8%/nam xuo'ng 7,5%/nam.
Lai s u a t tdi d a a p d u n g ddi vdi tiln g^
khdng k y h a n va ed k y b a n dfldi 1 t h a n g giam tfl 1,2%/nam xud'ng 1%/nam; lai sua't t ^ daSp dung doi vdi t i l n giii ed k y b a n tfl 1 thang de'n dfldi 6 t h a n g giam tfl 7%/nam xuong 6%/nfiai;
lai sua't tdi da a p d u n g ddi vdi t i l n gfli co ^ b a n tfl 1 t h a n g dd'n dfldi 6 t h a n g t a i quy tin dung n h a n dan, to chflc t a i eMnh vi md giam tfl 7,5%/nam xudng 6,5%/nam.
Cd t h i tha'y, trong tiing n h i p d i l u ehinh, Ngan h a n g N h a nflde d a giam d i n vide can thidp h a n h cMnh vao lai sua't cua t h i trUcfng, t h i hidn tfl vide quy dinh t r i n cho eac lo^i lai sua't t i l n giii tfl 12 t h a n g xud'ng 6 thang v&
n a y ehi edn loai h u y ddng n g l n b a n dflffi 6 t h a n g . Xu hfldng lai sua't giam n h a n h cung lam cho kd't ea'u h u y ddng cua ngSn h^g thfldng m a i t h a y doi, nguon vd'n h u y dong d&i b a n tfl 12 t h a n g t r e n e u a cae ngan h^ng thfldng m a i dflde gia t a n g hdn. Lai sua't huy ddng k;^ b a n d a i c h e n h leeh ky h a n ngln tiT 1,8%-2,5%/nam, dUdng cong lai suat trd vl dung vdi b a n cha't vd'n ed c u a nd.
Lai suat difnh sdch thuc t ^ d a n g ^ m
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Lai suat c a ban t h u - c t ^ • Lai suat O M O
2012 2013 2014 a l_am phat todn ph^n,
% theo nam Ngudn: HSBCyReuters/Bloomberg.
Ben canh duy t r i t r a n lai sua't h u y ddng n g l n b a n dUdi 6 t h a n g , Ngan h a n g N h a nude tiep t u e duy t r i t r a n lai sua't eho vay vao 5 linh vflc flu tien nhfl: ndng ngMdp ndng thdn, xua't khdu; doanh ngMdp nhd va vUa, cdng nghiep hd trd; edng nghe cao.
Cd t h e ndi, dong t h a i giam lai sul't ng&y 18-3-2014 c u a N g ^ n h a n g N h a nUdc nh^m thfle d^y t a n g trUdng t i n d u n g d a t muc tieu d l r a la 12-14% t r o n g n a m nay, d i n g th6ih§
trd t a n g trUdng k i n h te' vi, ve ly thuyd't, lai sua't h a se kich c l u t i n dung. Tuy nhien,
38 NghiSn cdu Kinh tds6432 • Thdng 5/20U
Khi cdng cu lai suat.
trdng thdi gian g a n day, vide s ^ dung cdng eu n a y d a n g cho tha'y, tac ddng khdng nhU mong mud'n. Dae biet, hidn nay, edng cu lai sua't dUde n h a n dinh la da k e m n h a y cam vdi eung - c l u tin dung. Cac chuydn gia d i u cd e h u n g n h a n dinh; h a lai sua't khdng t h e day t a n g trfldng tin d u n g do va'p p h a i yd'u to' tong c l u n i n k i n h td' v l n chfla eai thidn. N h a n dinh n a y la h o a n t o a n ed cd sd.
Thfle te' Vidt N a m chflng m i n h ra't ro, n g a y giai doan 2010-2011, mac d u lai sua't eao tdi 25-27%/nam nhflng tin dung v l n t a n g t r u d n g t r d n 30%. Bdi vi n h u c l u vay t a n g cao va ngUdi vay v l n n h i n t h a y ed hdi lam r a t i l n d l t r a nd.
Cdn Men nay, cd t h i thay, tong c l u n i n k i n h t e v a n yd'u, 2 t h a n g ed ca Td't Nguydn d a n m a s a u k h i trfl yd'u td^ gia td'ng mfle b a n le chi t a n g t r d n 6%, nMch hdn n a m 2013 mot c h u t .
Trong k M dd, khdi k h a e h h a n g Idn, cu t h i la doanh ngMdp n h a nflde lai d a n g trong qua t r i n h loay hoay t a i cd ca'u, cd' p h l n hda.
Trong hen c a n h khd k h a n , h l u h i t eac doanh nghidp n h a nflde d e u n l m trong t i n h t r a n g t a p t r u n g s l p xd'p lai n g a n h n g h e k i n h doanh, t h u h e p s a n xu^t. Ngay ca 2 n g a n h dUdc eoi la "ngd'n" k h a n h i l u vd'n vay la san xua't t h e p va xi m a n g , sau mdt thdi gian I a t d i u tu, d e n n a y d a n g dUde d i l u cMnh giam edng sua't va s a n lUdng do c l u trong nUdc giam. ThUc t r a n g n a y cho tha'y, n h u e i u t a n g tin d u n g cua khdi doanh nghidp n a y chUa n h i l u .
Khdi d o a n h ngMep tU n h a n eung dang rdi vao t i n h t r a n g bi dat. Ridng quy 1/2014, tong so d o a n h n g h i e p gap khd k h a n buoc p h a i giai t h i hoac d a n g k^ t a m ngflng hoat ddng cd thdi b a n , hoac ngflng b o a t dong nhflng khdng d a n g ky la 16.745 d o a n h nghidp t a n g 9,6% so vdi cung k y n a m trflde. Trong do: sd' doanh nghidp d a n g ky t a m ngflng boat dpng ed thdi h ^ n la 3.846 doanh nghiep, t a n g 7,8%; so' d o a n h ngMep ngflng boat dong nhUng khdng d a n g ky la 10.318 d o a n h nghidp, t a n g 9,3%;
so d o a n h ngMdp giai t h e ia 2.581 doanh
nghidp, t a n g 13,6%. Nguydn n h a n la do each thfle lam a n n g l n h a n , q u a n tri thid'u cd b a n . Trong bdi eanh khd k h a n hien nay, doanh ngMep khdi n a y dang eo cum, chong dd khd k h a n , cdng vdi nd xa'u v l n dang tree trdn d i u , vi t h e , vide t a n g tin d u n g tai k h u vflc doanh nghidp n a y cung ra't khd.
Trflde tinh eanh dd, eac n g a n h a n g deu ebon con dfldng an toan la dfla von dang dfl thfla di m u a t r a i phid'u eMnh phu. Tfl d i u n a m ddn nay t i l n cua td chfle tin d u n g dd vao t r a i phieu da len dd'n gan 60.000 ty dong.
Theo so' lieu mdi nha't ciia Ngan h a n g N h a nflde, t i n h de'n ngay 13-3-2014, t a n g trfldng t i n d u n g t o a n he thong v a n a m 1,05% so vdi eudl n a m 2013. Cu t h i , h a i t h a n g d i u n a m t a n g t r u d n g tin dung am, eon 13 ngay d i u t h a n g 3-2014 da cd da'u hidu t a n g nhe, vdi mfle 0,13% so vdi eudl t h a n g 2. V I con sd' tuyet ddi, tin d u n g da giam 35.118 ty dong (dfl nd tin d u n g den eudl t h a n g 11-2013 dflde Ngan h a n g N h a nflde edng bd'ia hdn 3,3 tridu ty dong). Tinh t r a n g cae n g a n h a n g canh eanh noi lo nd xa'u va cM giai n g a n ddi vdi cac dfl a n ed k h a n a n g t h u hoi dflde tien vay, da lam lu md p h a n nao no Iflc eua Ngan h a n g N h a nflde k e u goi cae td' chflc tin dung t a n g efldng eung flng vd'n, k l ca cho vay nhflng doanh nghidp dflde tai ed caii nd theo Quye't dinh 780. Tin dung ciia cae n g a n h a n g Idn n h u Vietcombank tfl d i u n a m dd'n thdi diem nay v l n am. Mot so'ngan h a n g eo p h l n cd t i n dung dUdng, song cung b mfle tha'p so vdi eflng k;^ va so vdi mflc t r u n g b i n h h a n g t h a n g theo ke'hoach de r a .
3 . C a n n h f l n g g i a i p h a p d o n g b o v a q u y e t l i e t
Cd t h i tha'y, ne'u chi mot m i n h cdng cu lai suat, t h i du dflde linh boat d i l u ehinh giam eung khd p h a t h u y tac dung, dac biet neu khdng di kdm vdi cae giai p h a p dong bo v l giai quye't nd xa'u, h a n g ton kho, t h a o gd kho k h a n eho doanh nghidp. Vi the', ben c a n h vide d i l u cMnh lai sua't, thi c i n cd nhflng giai p h a p quye't liet hdn n h i m tao dieu kien eho doanh ngMep giam h a n g ton kho. Cu the:
NghiSn cdu Kinh tesd432 - Thdng 5/2014
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Khi cfing cu lai su^t
Tha nhdt, Ngan h a n g N h a nflde tid'p tuc thfle Men eae bien p h a p on dinh thi trfldng t i l n td, nhfl: k i l m soat lam phat, gifl on dinh t y gia, d l y m a n h t a i cd ea'u eae n g a n h a n g thfldng mai, n a n g eao n a n g Iflc t a i cMnb eho cac ngan h a n g thfldng mai boat ddng td't, xfl ly nd xau... d l y n h a n h ddng vd'n t r e n thi trfldng t i l n te.
Hidn nay, Ngan h a n g N h a nflde da len nhieu phUdng an eho ke' hoach t a n g trfldng tin diing eua toan he thong n h i m dat mue tidu d l ra. Cu the: Ngan h a n g N h a nflde ludn theo doi sat t a n g trUdng tin dung toan he thd'ng va d i l u h a n h linh boat n h u da the hidn trong n a m 2013 d l eac to chflc tin dung ed k h a n a n g t a n g trfldng tin dung bao dam an toan, n h a t la t a n g vd'n d i u tfl eho eac linh vfle flu tien, dac biet la hd trd t a m ndng va khoa hoe cdng nghe.
P h a t b i l u t a i cuoc hop bao vdi bao cM vao t h a n g 3-2014, b a N g u y i n TM Hong, Vu trfldng Vu CMnh sach t i l n t e (Ngan hang N h a nflde) cho biet, Ngan h a n g Nha nflde eung s i n sang d a n h cung t i l n cho vay tai ed'p vd'n n h i m hd trd xfl 1;^ nd xa'u, n h a t la cho vay linh vfle ndng nghidp ndng thdn nhfl tai eanh ca phd, cho vay t h u m u a lua gao Ngdn h a n g N h a nflde khuyd'n kMeh eae to chflc tin dung phdi hdp vdi bd, n g a n h lidn q u a n t r i l n k h a i md hinh tM diem eho vay chudi lidn kd't, flng dung cdng nghd eao.
Tha hai, c i n t i l p tue n a n g eao long tin eua t h i trfldng doi vdi eae tin hieu cMnh saeh eua Ngan h a n g N h a nUdc va su tin tudng l l n n h a u gifla cae t h a n h vien thi trfldng; minh bach hda thdng tin, chu dong trong d i l u h a n h ehinh saeh tien te, cflng vdi vide ciing ed' vflng m a n h eac dinh che tai cMnh d l tao n i n t a n g ed b a n cho vide hinh t h a n h lai sua't t r e n thi trUdng. Day la bidn p h a p dac bidt
q u a n trong, bdi n e u t h i trUdng ma't m I m tin, tM se gay hdn loan, r S t khd k i e m soat.
D I gifl dUde n i l m t m eua t h i trUdng, Ngan h a n g N h a nude p h a i dfla t r d n q u a n he cung e i u , tfl dd ed t h e h i n h t h a n h dfldng cong lai sua't c h u l n . T i e p t u e h o a n thien mdi trflting p h a p ly eho boat ddng t h i trfldng, tao dilu kidn t h u a n ldi d l eae n g a n h a n g thfldng mtu p h a t trien da d a n g cdc san p h i m dich vu n g a n hang, flng d u n g cdng nghe ngan ha:^;
hien dai, thfle day n h a n h ddng ehu ehuyin vd'n... Dong thdi, xvt ly nghiem nhflng hanh vi sai p h a m , gifl n g M e m ky l u ^ t t h i trfldng.
Tha ba, tim d i u r a eho s a n p h i m , giai phdng h a n g ton kho. Theo k i t qua khao sat dong t h a i doanh n g h i e p Vidt N a m trong 6 t h a n g d i u n a m 2013 cua Phdng Thfldng mai va edng nghidp Viet N a m (VCCI), hdn 70°/o doanh nghidp cho bid't khd k h a n cua ho hi^n n a y khdng con la va'n de lai s u ^ t hay khong t h i tiep can vdri n g a n h a n g , ma la d thi trfldng, d i u r a eho s a n p h i m . Bdi v^y, giai p h a p trflde m i t do la C M n h phu, cac bo, n g a n h cd lidn quan, eae hiep hdi nganh hang, eac dia phfldng tim each kich c l u tieu diing, d i u tfl; dieu ehinh c h i n h sach thud' n h i m g6p p h l n k h a i t h o n g mot p h l n khd khan cho boat ddng tin dung./.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. N. Gregory Mankiw (2003), Kinh ti'vi md, Nxb Th6ng ke, H i NOi.
2. Le Van Hai (2013), Khi cOng cu lai sudt khOng phJi la "dua thin". Tap chf Kinh tg vd du bdo. s6 15-2013.
3. Huy Thdng (2014), Ha mOt loat lai suit chii chSt tir 18/3, truy cap tit http://baodientu.chinhphu.vn/Hoat- dong-Bo-nganh/Ha-mot-Ioat-lai-suat-chu-chot-tu- I83/194781.vgp.
4. Nguyin An Tho (2014), "Uu tifin hang diu nam nay la giam lai suit", tray cdp tfr http://vneconoiny.
vn/20140302110317673P0C6/uu-tien-hang-dau-nam-nay- la-giam-lai-suat.htm.
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