Hot ngln Klma hoc \-d Cdng nghe bien toiitiqu/icJiOjjJjlL^
HE T H 6 N G NGHIEP VU Dl) BAG HAN N G A N CAC YEU TO
KHi TUONG THUY VAN BIEN TREN BIEN BONG
Nguyen Minh Iluiin
Trudng Dgi hoc Khoa hoc Tic nhiin. Dgi hoc Qudc gia Hd Niii E-mail- nmhttan61@ginail com
Tom tiit:
lido cdo Irinh bdy kil iptd chinh dgi duac Irong khuon kho Di Idl cdp Nhd nude KC.09.16.06-10 thugc chuang ti-'mh Biin KC 09/06-W.
Trin ca sa cdc kil qua nghiin cicu dd xdy dung duac quy Irinh cdng nghi ttr ddng du bdo hgn ngdn Irirdng cdc yiu Id khi luang. Iruirng cdc yeu Id Ihuy van hiin dua Iren he thdng bd mdy linh (clustei) linh lodn .song song vd hi thong heu trie thdng lin kit hap vai cdc md hinh .sd Iri du bdo Ihdi tiet khu vuc HRM, MM5. WRF, RAMS: cdc md hinh die bdo hdi vdn MDEC3D, ROMS: cdc md hinh die bdo sdng metre sdu vd sdng nude ndng WAM, WW3. SWAN vd WABED vai do chinh xdc cho phep phuc vu cdc hoat ddng kinh te. qudc phdng bdo ve chn quyin tren cue vimg biin. Quy Irinh ndy hodn lodn ddp ting yeu cdu hiin Igi cua nghiep vu die bdo Ihdi tiet hien ve cdc yiu Id khi lictmg. hdi vdn. phdt bdo ihdng tin vd cung cdp so lieu Ihdng qua mang Internet.
OPERATIONAL SYSTEM FOR SHORT-TERM MARINE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST IN THE BIEN DONG Abstract:
In this report some main results of Ihe Nation Project KC.09.16/06-10 are presented
Br in Ihe research results has built operational .system for short-term liyi eteorological forecast in Bien Dong based cluster computer syslem - -pan:. I compuling and information storage systems combined wilh
regional weather forecast model HRM, MM5, WRF.
RAMS, Ihe oceanographic forecast models MDEC3D, ROMS: ihe depth and shallow waves forecast models WAM. WW3, SWAN and WABED Forecast precision allows serve for economic, national defense and protection sovereignty activities on Ihe sea. This syslem is completely meet Ihe current requirements of professional marine weather forecasts, of informalion.
reports distribution and provide dala through the Internet.
l^ Tliu hem Khi lirgng. Tliuv van vd Ddng lire hc)c Bien
I. MO DAU
Trong dicu kien nude ta hicn nay, vice du bao han ngdn cac trudng yeu lo thuy van biCMi phuc \u cdc hoat dpng kinh lc \a an ninh qudc phong tren bien co the lien hdnh ihco liai phuong thuc:
- Xay dung he thdng thu nhan thdng tin cdc trudng khi tupng thiiy van du bao ciia cac nude ircn the gidi vd khu \ uc;
- Xay dung va phdt triSn he thong cdc mo hinh du bao cac tnrdng khi lupng thiiy van bien.
Theo phuong thirc ddu tien chung la chi nhan dupe cdc thdng tin tren qui md ldn vdi dp phan giai so lieu thap, theo phuong thirc thu hai chiing ta sc phai dau lu nhan luc, vat live nhicu hon nhung se c6 tinh chii dpng cao trong cong lac du bao, cac thdng tin kcl qua ciia he thdng du bdo nhdn dupe se ddy dii, chi tiet \ a chinh xac kip thdi dap ung dupe yeu cau CLia cdc hoai dpng kinh te. an ninh quoc phong vd nghien cim. Vi vay viec nghien cuu phdt tricn quy trinh cong nghe du bao ban ngan \'c trudng cac yeu to ihiiy van bien la muc ticu Clia phuong thirc thir hai va cung chinh la sir lira chpn hudng nghien cuu ciia nhom lac gia trong dO lai K.C.09.16/06-10.
"frong nhCrng nam gdn ddy, nghien cuu cac Irudng yeu to thiiy van doi vdi Bicn Dong bang phuong phap mo hinh hoa theo hudng he thong da dupe dp dung de khac phuc nhung kho khan trong vice tim kicm nguon sd lieu du bao khi tupng phuc vu dau vao cho cdc mo hinh hai van, Tuy nhicn cho den nay chung ta chua co mpt quy trinh cong nghc dir bao day dii cac yeu to khi lupng. ihu\ van bien: cdc yeu to khi tugng, dong chay. song, muc nude, nhicl dp \ a dp mudi. Cdc kin qua nghien cuu cua tap the can bp khoa hpc thuc hien dc ldi trong giai doan trudc con dua tren mgl so phan mem thuong mai, phai mua ban quyen sir dung vdi gia thdnh cao, kho khan trong viec chuyen giao, hon nira he thong chay Ircn nhicu he dieu hdnh bao gom Linux \a Windows phai xu ly phuc tap trong vice trao doi dir lieu giira cdc he dieu hdnh, trong giai doan nghien cuu nay De tai dat ra nhiem \u xay dung he thong lien hodn kcl noi giu'a cdc mo hinh khi tupng va hai van, he thong dupe xdy dung dua tren cac phdn mem ma ngudn md da duoc cac cdng dong nghien ciiu khoa hgc khi tupng thuy van the gidi su dung va hoan thien.
II. QUY TRINH Dir BAO HAN NGAN TRU^ONG CAC YEU TO THUV VAN BIEN KHU VlTC BIEN DONG 1. He thong cac phan mem nghiep vu du bao khi tuffng thuy van bien /. 1 Cdc mo hinh so tri du- bdo khi tugng bien
Mo hinh du bao so tri luon ludn co mat trong cdc du bao thdi tiet hien dai. Co sd ly thuyet ciia du bao thdi tiet so tri (NWP) la dgng lire hgc khi tupng co sd ly thuy6t cung cdp cdc phuong trinh mo td sir lien trien cua khi quyen. Du bdo dpng luc se du doan trang thdi tuong iai cua hoan luu sir dung cac xap xi loan hpc ciia he phuong trinh dpng lire vdi cac quy mo nhu sau:
lldi iiglii Khoa hoc yd Cdng nghe bleu loan qiidcJuflJl'JL
• Quy m6 (nho - micro: vira - meso; S) nop va loiin cau)
• Ung dung (m6 hinh hoan luu chung. mo hinh phan tan va Iruycn tai)
• Chicukh6nggian(lD, 2D, 3D....)
• Gia thiel vat Iy (thuy tmh hoac bat thiiy linh).
Cac mo hinh dir bao khi tugng dugc .sii' dung trong he lh6ng bao gom:
M6 hinh du bao thai ti6l khu vuc phan giai eao HRM la mpt m5 hinh s5, cong cu linh hoat cho nghiep \u du bao thai li6l ngiiy nay. Mo hinh HRM dugc co quan Khi tugng Dire (DWD) lao ra va phat triSn. co quan nay sc cung dp cac so lieu can thiet cho muc dich nghien ciru cung nhu chay m6 hinh du bao thoi tiel. Mo hinh IIRM chay du bao cho ra ket qua cua ap suiil be miit ps, nhiel do T, hoi nuoc qv, lugng nuoc miiy qc.
luong biing may qi. cae thanh phan gio ngang u,v va mgt vai thong so be mat dit.
Ngoai ra mo hinh con cho ra cac ket qua canh bao vol cac bien toe do thang diing a.
dja Ihe vi 0. dp phii miiy clc, dp khuyech Uin tkvm/h. Cac bicn so nay e6 trong he phuong trinh cua mo hinh.
M6 hinh khi lugng dpng luc quy mo vira MM5 the he thir 5 cua Trung tam Quoc gia Nghien ciru Khi quyc;n Hoa Ky (NCAR) va Truang Dai hpc TSng hgp Pennsylvania lloa Ky (PSU). MM5 la the he moi nhal trong mpl loat cac m6 hinh du bao dugc Anthes phat trien tir nhung nam 1970. Mo hinh da dugc digu chinh va cai tiC'n nhiC-u lan nham mo phong lot hgn cae qua trinh vai ly quy mo vira va co thS ap dung d6i voi nhicu doi tugng sir dung khae nhau: du bao thoi tiat thoi gian thirc, dy bao xoay thuan nhiet doi. v.v. Du lieu dau ra eua MM5 eo th6 chia thanh cac trudng 3 chiju dJ} dii va cac trugng be mat 2 chieu. Vol muc ticu sir dung lam dju vao va di6u kien bicn tren ciia ni6 hinh hai duong. eac truomg b6 mat dugc chgn de trich xuSt bao gAm: ap su5t myc bicn (PSLV). cac thanh p h k gio lOm (uio, VlO), nhiet do 2m ( l l M ) . ti s6 xao trpn am 2m (Q2M). thpng lugng bii'c xa xu6ng bj mat (LWD, SWD) va giane thuv tich luy (RC. RN).
Me hinh du bao thoi lift WRF (Weather Research and Forecast model), lii san phSm Clia sy hgp tac phat trien eua nhieu trung tam nghien cim va du bao khi tugng g Hoa Ky nhu Trung tam Quoc gia vc nghien cim khi quyjn (NCAR), Trung tam du bao moi truong quoc gia (NCEP),...va dpi ngu d6ng dao cac nha khoa hoc lam vice tai cac iruong dai hpc tren the gigi. M5 hinh WRF dugc thill kt linh dong,' eo d6 liiy biin cao va CO kha nang van hanh tren nhirng he thong may tinh Ion, WRF c6 thi dl dang liiv bicn cho cong viec nghien ciru va dy bao, mo hinh bao g6m nhilu tuy chon va h'e thong dong hoa dO lieu tien tien. Quy - 3 dy bao cua mo hinh rit da dang co ihl tu hang met den hang nghin km bao gom cac nghien cim va thuc hanh du bag s6 (NWP) dong hoa dir lieu va tham so hoa cac ylu 16 vat ly. mo phong khi hau bang phuong phap downscalmg (downscahng climate simulations), nghien cim va danh gia chdt ugng khong khi, mo hinh ket hgp dai duong - khi quyln va cae mo phong ly tuang (nhu xoay Igp bien. doi luu, song taap... ).
C I ' " ' ^ '^r^n 1*^'?™' ^'""^P'^^ric Modeling System) duoc Dai hoc T6ng hop Colorado (CSU) ket hgp voi ASTER divsion- thugc Mission Research-CorpoLioS
I
Tiiu ban Khi tugng. Thiiy van vd Dc'nig luc hoc Bien
phat trien da muc dich. Dd Id mdt md hinh du bao sd mo phdng hoan luu khi quyen vdi qui mo tir loan cau cho den cdc md phdng xoay ldn (Large Eddy Simulation-LES) cua Idp bicn khi quyen hanh tinh. Md hinh thudng dupe sir dung nhieu nhal de mo phong cac hien lupng khi quySn qui mo vira (2-2000 km) tu dir bdo thdi tiet nghiep vu den cdc irng dung dc md phdng. quan ly chat lupng mdi trudng khong khi.
Co nhieu nguon goc gay ra sai so dir bao trong cdc mo hinh dir bao thdi tiet bang phuong phap so do la su thieu sol trong viec xac dinh chinh xac trang thai ban ddu, dicu kien bien.
tham so hda cdc qud trinh vdt ly cua bdu khi quyen \a tinh ky thuat xdp xi so tri. Mpt mo hinh so tri don le tao ra cdc ket qua du bdo cu the tir mdt cdu hinh cu the (dac diem khdng gian ludi, dicu kicn bicn. cac qua trinh vat ly. v.v.) vdi sai so he thdng ciia nd. Mpl to hpp ciia cac du bao sd the sir dung de du doan tinh bdt dinh trong cac ket qua du bdo. Do do.
bdn chdt chua hoan thien ciia dieu kien ban dau vd md hinh NWP c6 the sir dung mpl each chien luoc Irong mgt he thong du bdo to hpp EPS de xdc dinli mpl dai ket qua du bdo co the tdn tai tir cdc thanh phdn cua id hpp. xac dinh xac suat cua ket qud du bdo rieng le bdt k\ va ho trp xac dinh kcl qua du bdo giong nhdt. De dam bao thdi gian nghiep vu thuc hion linh todn ciia cac mo hinh hai van, chung toi da thuc hien td hpp vdi trpng so tinh lot'-n bang phuong phap trung binh ddi vdi cac ket qua du bao tir cde md hinh khi tupng HRM, MN15. WRF vd RAMS.
1.2 Cdc md hinh so dir bdo hgn ngdn trirdng cdc yeu to nhiet do, dp mudi va ddng chdy Hoan iim trong bien \a dai duong la mot doi lupng nghien cuu rat phuc tap, ddng chay d day dupe hinh thanh va ton tai do nhieu nguyen nhan tac dgng khac nhau nhu thuy Irieu.
gio. ap suat khong khi tren be mat thoang, su bien ddng ciia mat dp nude, anh hudng ciia dia hinh vd bien dpng theo phuong ngang cua ddng lupng sdng trpng luc tren be mat do hien tupng bien dang khi song lan tmyen. Trong nghien cuu nay chung toi lira chpn su dung cac mo hinh sd tri MDEC3D va ROMS mo phong va du bao cac qud trinh thiiy ddng lire va nhiet muoi cua khu \uc Bien Ddng.
• Md hinh 3D thuy ddng luc hpc cua Trung tam Dpng lire va Mdi trudng Bien MDEC3D cd kha nang du bdo cac trudng hoan luu, nhiet, mudi tren cae khu vuc phuc tap va cd nhieu bien hd, vdi ludi tinh cd dp phan giai lira chpn khdc nhau tiiy thugc yeu cau ciia cac bai loan thiiy dgng lire hpc. Mo hinh dupe xay dung tren eo sd sii dung he cac phuong trinh thuy nhiet dpng hpc nguyen thuy, sir dung phuong phap chuyen doi sang he loa dp Z (x3) lira cong theo a da dupe nghien ciru vd sir dung trong mo hinh M D E C J D . cac phuong trinh dupe khep kin roi doi vdi mat do dgng nang r6i k va tan mat 8, cdc thanh phdn Qy (y : k hay e) the hien cac nguon phdt sinh va lieu hiiy.
• ROMS la mo hinh hodn luu dai ducmg, sir dung he phuong trinh nguyen thiiy (primitive). La md hinh ma nguon md nen ROMS mang tinh cdng dong cao, duoc nhidu cdc nha nghien cuu su dung vdi nhieu qui md khong gian vd thdi gian khac nhau:
tir dai ven bd tdi cac dai duong the gidi; md phdng cho vdi ngay. vai thang va tdi hdng chuc nam. Mo hinh sir dung he toa dg thich ung dia hinh theo phuong thang dimg (ludi s hoac s) xap xi dia hinh ddy bien va be mat tu do, he toa dp cong true giao theo phuong ngang. Sai phan theo khdng gian su dung sai phan trung tam bae hai tren ludi Arakawa C dp dung cho phirong ngang (x,h) vdi cac dieu kien bien trupt tu do (loan
lldinvhlKhoa hoc vd Cdng nghe bien lodn quik lin Ihict
phan), trugt mpt phin, ho,c d ^ kjpn ' ^ ^ f ^ : S : l ^ ^ ^ ^ M sa, phan xen ke bae hai. Sai phan * » tog » ^ 'lung ^^^^ ^.^., ^.. ^^^.^
barotrop: giai he phuong tnnh d9"E|^'^S^a, ehieu m ^ ^^^^^^.^^
thoi gian ngan thoa man dieu k>?^,Couran^Fned^chs L e j ^ . ^ ^ ^ ^ ^^
he phuong trinh dpng lugng ba chieu voi buoc *oi fcjan tuong
so d6 Mellor-Yamada bac 2,5 dl tham s6 hoa eac he so khuyech tan dgng lugng KM va nhiet KH theo phuang thing dimg.
\R1 elob.1 M O M e"*" •'
Hinh 1. So sdnh kit qud dtr bdo vd sd lieu phdn tich ngdy 18 - 19/10/2010 truang ddng chdy vd nhiet do be mat ciia he thong du bdo vd mo hinh NEOM ctia Hdi qudn My Tren hinh I. the hien cae ket qua du bao doi voi truong nhiet do va dong chay, so sanh vcr so lieu phan tieh ciia mo hinh loan cau NCOM ciia Hai quan My tai cac ngay 18 - 19 - 21 - 21/10/2010 la nhihig ngay boat dpng cua con bao Meji, ket qua cho thiy tac dgng ro re eiia trucmg khi ap va gio trong bao Ien phan bo kh6ng gian eua truomg dong chay va nhie do be mat va sy tuong dong ve mat dinh tinh v6i ket qua dy bao cua Hai quan My.
m (III
Tiiu han Khi luong, Thuv vein vd Ddng lire hgc Biin *•"
'^' '^ 1.3 Cdc md hinh so tri dir bdo trudng sdng nude sdu vd nu&c nong '^oils
o;;|jij^ • WAM la mo hinh sdng dai ducmg du bao song gid the he 3, mo hinh giai phucmg Innh l^J Iruyen song theo phuong phap hien vd khong cd bat ky rang buoc nao ve dang pho l^j song. Mo hinh bieu thi tinh vdt ly ciia tien trien song doi vdi mgt tap hpp day dii ciia
pho sdng 2 chieu lu do, phii hpp vdi kien thuc cho den nay. La md hinh sdng dai duong nhung no cho phep tinh den dnh hudng cua dong chay va nude ndng, nen co the chay cho nude ndng vd sdu co xet den khue xa do bien ddi do sdu vd khue xa do dong chay,
||i' Mo hinh chay cho bdt ky ludi dia phuong hoac todn cau nao vdi tap hpp du lieu dja hinh da cho. Co the chay trong kieu ludi long. Trong mpt ludi tho, cd the truy xuat pho tai ranh gidi cua ludi tinh, npi suy theo khong gian vd thdi gian cho nhung diem bien ciia ludi tinh vd mo hinh co the chay laJ Ircn ludi tinh. Dp phan giai ludi co the tuy y theo khong gian va thdi gian. Tinh loan lan truyen song co the thuc hien tren ludi kinh vT hoac ludi carthesian. Mo hinh truy xudt chieu cao song cd nghTa, hudng va tan so song trung binh, chieu cao va hudng song lirng trung binh. Trudng irng sudt gid dupe hieu chinh do xel den ung suat song va he so can. pho song 2 chieu tai nhung thdi diem va diem ludi dupe chpn. Tinh todn c6 the ngat va khdi ddng lai d thdi diem bat k>, Nhung so hang nguon vd su lan truyen cua chung co the tinh toan vdi nhung phuong phdp va budc thdi gian khdc nhau. Tich phdn so hang nguon thuc hien bang mgt so do an. trong khi so do Ian truyen la so do lien bdc nhdt. Budc thdi gian sd lieu gio co the chgn liiy y.
• Mo hinh WAVEWATCH-III (Tolman. 1991) la md hinh song cho phep tinh nang lupng pho true tiep bang each tich phan phuong trinh cdn bang nang lupng pho song ma khong phu thugc vao cac dang cho Irirdc cua pho song ca d vung nude sau vd nude nong. Trong pham vi WWATCH pho co ban la pho so sdng-hudng song F(k,0), no dupe chgn bdi vi dac diem bat bien ciia no doi vdi su tang trudng vat ly va tieu huy song doi vdi su bien ddi ciia do sau nude. Tuy nhien, dau ra ciia WWATCH bao gom nhieu pho hudng-tan so F(fr,9) truyen thong. Cac pho khac cd the tinh tir F(k,0) sir dung true tiep cac phep bien doi Jacobian. So hang ngudn S thudng gom 3 phan, so hang tuong tac song gid Sin, so hang tucmg tac phi tuyen sdng - song Snl va mgt so hang lieu tdn Sds (sdng bac dau). Sd hang nguon dupe su dung trong WWATCH dupe xac dinh la: S=Sin+Snl+Sds+Sbot. Tucmg tdc phi tuyin trong WWATCH la ly thuySt Wcbb-Resio-Tracy (WRT), dua tren cong thiic tfch phan Boltzmann sdu chieu ciia Hassenmann (1962,1963 a,b), va bo sung su luu y cuaResio vaPerrie (1991). Mo hinh sdng cung cap dau ra theo cac trudng ludi ciia cac tham so sdng trung binh. Mgt vai tham sd trong dd cd the tr-ch xuat doi vdi cac diem dupe chpn.
• Mo hinh WABED du bao song nude nong tai khu vuc ven bd, Song gid quan trdc dupe tren thirc dia la ket qud tuong tac ciia qud trinh hinh thdnh, tieu tdn, lan truyen va tuong tdc phi tuyen giira cac song. Do song trpng luc trong tu nhien thudng xuat hien trong dang bat dong nhdt va lan truyen phan tdn tren nhieu hudng. Pho hudng ciia sdng lan truyen bao gom cac hieu ung can sdng va khue xa ciia sdng tuyen tinh da dupe phat triln hoan thien trong thdi gian qua. Mo hinh WABED cd co sd ly thuylt md ta hien lupng nhieu xa, phan xa va cac qua trinh hinh thanh va phat trien song tir gid. Hien
Hdi light Khoa hoc va Cdng nglie bten todn qlidi^ lan il'i i
tuong phan xa va nhilu xa song dong vai tro quan trgng doi voi truong .song vung ven bo, dac biet la dii voi eac dang cong trinh dai va phan xa bao vc cae eua bicn hoac cac kenh hang hai. M6 hinh WABED co the chay Iron luoi biit dong nhiit de tiet kiem tho, gian tinh d6i vol vung tinh Ion, dac diem nay eho phcp nguoi su dung dung mgl luoi voi do phan giai khac nhau tren eac phin khac nhau eua luiri tinh, nhu vay nguoi su dung CO thi tinh loan song lan truyin tit vung co do sau Ion toi vimg gan bo, WABED con CO kha nang sir dung luoi long la phuong phap tuang tu de tinh loan lan truyen song vao eac viing c6 do phan giai cao hon.
2. He th6ng may tinh cluster phuc vu du- bao nghiep vu
He thing tinh loan song song phan cum (Cluster) la cae he th6ng may tinh song song dugc xay dyng tir cae niit tinh loan va thiit bi mang thong dung, m6i niit tinh loan hay cac niu dong vai tro dilu khiln vao/ra la mgt he thong hoan chinh, co kha nang lam vice dgc lap. Trong d6 eac tai nguyen tinh loan la bg vi xir ly va bg nho trong tai moi may tinh, cac tai nguyen linh toan nay co kha nang truyen thong va ket hgp vol nhau thong qua cap mang. Thuimg thi quy m6 ciia he th6ng chi giai han trong mgt mang cue bp (LAN), trong do CO mgt miiy tinh d6ng vai tro may chii (server), cac may tinh con lai dong vai tro nui tinh loan (computing node)
Hicn tai, tiii nguyen tinh loan ciia he thong dy bao nghiep vy bao g6iTi long cong la 32 nhSn tinh la 04 may server m6i may co 2 CPU 4 nhan tinh t6e do 2,44Ghz, sir dung he dieu .hanh Linux 2.6.18-8.el5PAE (x86), eau hinh thanh mgt Cluster vgi thu vien xir ly song song MPITCH2 va Bg quan Iy chuong trinh PBS Torque. Tren bang 1 the hien ciic dac diem vat ly va qua trinh boat dgng ciia cac nut may tinh trong he th6ng va hinh ve 2 the hien so do cau triic ciia he thong tinh loan.
He thong c6n trang bi thiet bi luu trir NAS c6 kha nang luu giir 4TB dir lieu, dimg de chira du lieu, chuong trinh eua nguoi sir dung (/home/NAS). Thu muc nay dugc chia se cho tat ea cac nut tinh loan th6ng qua NFS.
Hinh 2. Kien Iriic tdng quan ve phan cirng cua he thong mdy linh todn
Tliu han Khi tirtnig. Tlniy vdn vd Ddng lire hgc Bien
Ngirdi sir dung co the truy cap vd khai thac cac lai nguyen he Ihong tir cac may tinh ca nhdn sir dung chuong trinh Xmanager thdng qua Internet vdi giao thiic ssh. He thong da cai dal cac trinh bien dich cho cac ngdn ngu lap trinh thdng dung nhu C. C++. Java.
Fortran, matlab. v.v.
Co 2 each thuc hicn chuong trinh tren he thong cluster: Ihirc hien chay true licp luong tac Iren nen he dieu hdnh va thuc hicn chay thong qua Bp qudn ly chuong trinh PBS Torque. Bang 5.1.3 the hicn cdc dong lenh thuc thi cho cac phuong an nay, neu chuong trinh Clia ban nho (yeu cau 1 bg xir ly, chay trong thdi gian ngan, va yeu cau it bg nhd) thi CO the chay true tiep tren hi' dieu hanh. neu chuong trinh ldn. doi hdi nhieu bp xir 1\. ihdi gian thuc hicn ddi thi phdi thuc hien thong qua bd quan Iy chuong trinh PBS Torque.
Ngoai ra he thong cdn co khd nang cho phep ngudi dieu hanh kiem tra trang thai hoat dgng ciia he thong tir xa thong qua Internet tai cac dia chi:
hilp://dubaobicn.vn:38912/gangliahoachllp://10.8.52.243/ganglia Bang 1. Cdc kieu bdng dai thirc thi chuang trinh
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rlcvcLq
• FC5&Q94S0 -
• Max CPL! 1 .-malLq
• Max Nodes; 10
• MaxCput 5h mcdium_q
• Max Nodes: 5
• Max Cput 1 20h lonp^ q
• Max Nodes: 3
• Max Cpul: 720h
crv small job, high priority
3. He thong nghiep vu lien hoan quy trinh du bao cac truong khi tuong va thuy van bicn
I lc thong nghiep vu lien hodn du bao ban ngan cac trudng yeu to thuy van bi6n dupe xdy dung lir cac ket qua nghien cuu ciia de lai KC09 16/06-10 bao gdm cac mo dun:
+ Mddun dam bao sd lieu dau vdo cho cac mo hinh khi tupng, hai duong;
Hot nghi Khoa Imc vd Cdng nghe biin lodn qitdcJ^^JII^
+ Modun eae mo hinh dy bao cac huimg khi tugng biin dap ung yeu ciu thong tm day du, nhanh, chi tilt va chinh xac lam diu vao eho cac mo hinh thiiy van bien;
+ M6 dun eac mo hinh thuy van biin dy bao eac truong: dong chay, myc nuoc long cong, nhiet dp va dp muoi;
+ M6 dun cac mo hinh thuy van biin dy bao cac truang song biin vimg nuoc sau va ven be, + M6dun phat bao cac kit qua ciia he thing dy bao qua trang web:
http://www.dubaobien.vn/ttbien.
+ Mo dun luu gift va cung eip si lieu phuc vu eho cac yeu ciu tinh loan va ciia ngitiri sir dung.
So dl khli ting quat ciia he thing dugc the hien tren hinh 3.
He thing nay dugc hoan thanh vol sy dong gop cua cac thanh phan cu the nhu sau:
+ He thong may tinh bao gim 4 may server 2 chip Pentium Xeon Quad toe do 2.44Ghz, 01 may tinh Pentium core 17 dugc ket noi mang toe dp cao thong qua GigaSwich.
+ He dieu hanh dugc sir dyng la Linux 2.6.18-8.el5PAE (x86) va Microsoft Windows XP SP3.
+ He thong cac chuang trinh dy bao khi tugng khu vuc: HRM, MM5, WRF va RAMS + He thong cac chuong trinh du bao thuy van bien eac yeu to dong chay, nhiet dp, do muoi va myc nuac t6ng cong: MDEC3D, ROMS; cac ylu t l song nuoc sau: WAM, WAVEWATCH3, SWAN va cac ylu 16 song nuoc n6ng WABED.
+ Duong truyin mang thong tin ADSL
+ Trang web phat bao thong tin va cung cip si lieu dy bao khi tugng thiiy van biin tai dia chi: http://www.dubaobien.vn/ttbien.
Quy trinh boat dpng cua he thing lien hoan trong mli chu ky dy bao se dugc thyc hien | theo hai phuong an nhu sau;
I. PhiroTig an tli da: thuc thi loan bp cac mp hinh trong he thing vol 4 mo hinh khi j tugng: HRM, MM5, WRF va RAMS; 2 mo hinh thiiy van MDEC3D, ROMS; 3 mo hinh dy bao song nuac sau: WAM, WW3, SWAN; I mo hinh du bao song nuoc nong WABED, [ cac ket qua tir eac mo binh cung loai dugc trich xuit tren ciing mot luoi va t l hgp bing j phugng phap to hgp trung binh trpng s6. Phuang an nay dugc thuc thi vgi cac bugc cu thi
nhu sau: ' Nhan so lieu phan tich va dy bao khi tugng tit cac mo hinh toan ciu AVN/GFS va
GME.
Nhan so lieu phan tich va dy bao hai van lit mo hinh toan ciu ECCO
Xay dyng dilu kien ban diu va dilu kien bien cho eac mo hinh du bao thoi tilt khi tugng va hai van bang cac cong cu noi suy vao cac luoi ciia cac mo hinh.
Tieu ban Khi luong, Thuy vdn vu Bdng luc hgc Bien
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Hinh 3. He thdng nghiep vu lien hoan du bao han ngan trudng cac yeu to thuy van bien.
Du bao cac trudng khi tupng, xu ly cac ket qua, trich xuat va to hpp so lieu cho eac mo hinh hai van.
Du bdo cac trudng hai van su dung so lieu dau vao la ket qua tir cac md hinh khi tupng va dieu kien ddu va dieu kien bien tir md hinh loan cau ECCO, xu ly ket qud, trich xuat vd to hpp so lieu cho cac md hinh du bao sdng nude sau.
Du bdo trudng sdng nude sau su dung ket qua trich xuat tir mo hinh khi tupng va mo hinh hai van, xii ly ket qua, trirb xuat vd to hpp so lieu cho md hinh du bao s6ng nude ndng.
Du bao trudng sdng nude ndng cho cac viing nude ven bd
Xii' ly, tap hpp, luxi giii cac ket qua du bao ciia toan bp he thdng va tu dpng phat bao len trang web, cung cap sd lieu true tuyen neu cd yeu cdu.
.- /lin ihir V
Hinh 4. Giao dien ciia trang web - Hinh 5. Giao dien ciia trang web - muc Du bdo muc Du bdo hdi vdn hiin thi kit qud hdi vdn hien thi kit qua dii- bdo truang song
du bdo nhiil muoi, ddng chdy.
Hinh 6. Giao dien cua trang web - muc Du bdo Khi tuang hien thi kit qud du bdo trudng cdc yeu to
khi tuang.
Hinh 7. Giao dien cua trang web - muc Chia se so lieu cung cdp khd ndng tu truy cap thu nhan so lieu die bdo
= ^ Tii'U ban Khi luong Thin van vd Dong ha hoc Biin
*** 2. Phuong lin toi uu: ihuc ihi cac mo hinh diroc lira chgn Irong he ihong vdi so Iicu du bdo khi luong Idy true liap lir s6 lieu .AVN/Cil S hoac CiMli; 1 mo hinh ihiiy van' ROMS: 1 I mo hinh dp bao song nude sau: SWAN: 1 mo hinh du bdo song nude nong WAB1-,D.
Phuong an na> dupe thirc thi vdi cdc budc cu ihc nhu sau:
Nhan so lieu phan lich va du bdo khi lupng tir cac mo hinh loan cau AVN/CIIS va C.M1-.
Nhdn so lieu phan tich va du bao hai \'an lir md hinh hdi van loan cdu I-X'CO ' Xa\' dung dicu kicn ban diiu va dieu kicn bicn cho mo hhih du bao hai van bung cac
cong cu noi suy \'do cac ludi cua cac mo hinh.
Du bao cac Irudng hai \an .su dung so lieu ddu \'ao la kcl qua lir cac md hinh khi Urgng loan cau \i\ dicu kien dau \a dicu kien bien tir mo hinh hai van loan cdu liCCO. xu ly kcl qua. irich \uai so lieu cho cac mo hinh du bao song nude sdu.
Du bao Irudng song nirde sau su dung kel qua Irich xual lir mo hinh khi lutmg \'a mo hinh hai \an. \ic ly kcl qua, irich xual sd lieu cho mo hinh du bao song nude nong.
DLI bao Irudng song nude nong eho cue viing nude \'cn bd.
Xir ly, lap hop. luu giu cac kcl qud du bdo eua loan bg he Ihong va lu dgng phat bdo len _ , Irant: web. eunu cdp so lieu Iruc lu\en neu co \cu cau.
O j f t i "• _ •" . . . - ^
sm 4. He thong phdt bao thong tin va cung cap so lieu khi tugng thiiy \rin bicn De lao ra khd nang Ira euu ihong lin lien luc dupe cap nhat \a ldn dung kha nang liep
^ can de dang cua he Ihong Inlernel todn cau Irong giai doan hien nay doi vdi mgi doi urpng can nhirng ihong tin du bao \o ihdi itcl bicn. dc ldi da xay dung he ihdng phat bao ihong
;,• tin \"d eung ciip so lieu iruc lu\en du'a Iren irang web vdi dia chi
^ hllp://w\v\v.dubaobiai.\n/libien.
(iiao dicn Irang web bao gom 6 thdnh phan chinh dirpc ihe '•lOn tren hinh \e 4 bao gom- Trang ehiu Gidi thieu chung. Du bao bien, Anh \e linh. Chia sc dir lieu. Thong lin \a Kien thuc. trong do cac muc quan trgng la Du bdo bien vd Chia sc dii lieu.
Muc Du bdo bien se cung cdp \h ^ng tin du" bao cua he thong bao gom phan Hai \an cung cap ihong lin du bao nhicl muoi - dong cha>' va dir bdo song nude sau: phan Khi lupng cung cap (hong Im dir bao khi lupng.
Muc Chia se dCi lieu se eung cap so Heu dir bao luu giii* dudi dang NclCDF cho ngudi su dung CO the IIUL- iiep xu l> cac thong Un. irich xual so lieu phuc vu cho yeu cau ricng.
0
HI. KET Ll AN
0 Da xay dimg dupe quy Irinh cong nghc lu dpng du bao ban ngan trirdng cdc y6u td khi i/if* tupng. irudng cac yeu lo ihu\ van bien dua Ircn he thong bo may tinh (cluster) tinh loan song song va he thong luu Iru thong tin kcl hpp \'di cac mo hinh sd tri du bao thdi tiel khu vuc^llRM. MM5, WRI-. RAMS, cac mo hinh du bao hai vdn MDIiC3D, ROMS; cac md
Hot nghi Klma Imc ni Cdng nglii hien ludn ciimcJ^J.!!lLi
hinh dir biio s6ng nuoc sau va song nuoc nong WAM. WW3, SWAN vii WAHh-D vol, chinh xac cho phep phuc vu ciic hoat dong kinh te. quoc phong tren cac viing bien. yu;
irinh nav hoiin loan dap ima NCU ciu hien lai cua nghiep vu dy bao thoi liel bien \c cac yci ll khi luong. hai ^•an. phat bio thong lin la cung cap so lieu lh6ng qua mang Inlernel loan cau lai dia chi irang vsch hUp://dubaobieii.Mi/llbien. Kcl qua nghien cuu nay da gop phan niing cao Irinh do dy bao khi lugng lhu\ van biin ciia chimg la licp can \6i cac nuoc uin tiln. Quy Irinh da duge chujen giao \ii kll qua dy biio ciia he Ihong dugc su dung lam lai heu chuyen khao cho dy ba'o nghiep vu lai 'Irung him Mai van lir thang 7 nam 2010 den nay.
lie thing du biio lu dgng khi luong Ihuj \an biC-n. kll qua nghien eilu ciia dc liii lao lien de va lii CO so khoa hgc lin c;i\ cho cdc huong nghien cii'u irng dung phuc vu da muc liin ve diim biio hoai diing biio \c an ninh chu qu>en lic-n bicn. vc kinh le: dy bao phuc \'ii I kilm Iham do. khiu ihiic diu khi, phuc \u dy biio ngu Iruirng diinh bat Ihiiy Siin.... \c loan himg hai. lim kiem cim nan: du biio suong mil - Uim nhin xa. quy dao vat the tioi: vi giam nhe Ihien lai. moi Iruimg bicn' dy biio lan lru)C'n ciic dang 6 nhitiiTi vii truy ngiiyiii nguon goc gii> 6 nhiem Iren bicn (nuoc. khong khi), \ci quan 1;', biio \'e bien. biii diio va
\Ling bo' linh loan liii phiin lich so lieu khi lugng Ihux \an bicn. cung cap so lieu Ihco Ihiii gian (quii khii \ ii du biio) chi tiet cho limg dia phuang phuc \u xii\ dung ciing Irltih ven ho, dir biio boi lir. \ui lu bao \c bir. hai diio
TAI LIEU 111 \M KHAO
1. Biio Ciio u^ng ' '' de liii cip nhii nuoc KC.09.16. llii Ngi. 2010: "NGHIEN Cl'l Pll.\ r I RlhN VA UiNG DUNG C'(")NG NGllH DU' BAG llAN N G A N TRl/ONG GAC Yl'i: "U) THUY V.AN BIFN KHU VUt BlI-N DONG -. M.-\ SO ' KC.09.16/06-10