TAI CHINH QUOC TE
Kinh te Ukraine: ,
KHUNG HOANG CHUA CO HOI KET
^ DUC MANH Nguy CO vd np can ke
Cd thd ndi, mdi quan he kinh td chat che, ed i*an jdiu thudc cua Ukraine vao nude ldng gieng tiidn edn Nga ttong mdt thdi gian dai da khidn nin kinh td Ukraine khd tru viing ndu khdng co su ung hd cfta Nga. Vide tiiay ddi chSih sach tii tiidn Nga sang ung hp phucmg Tdy da khidn cho Ukraine phai chiu nhung mit mdt nang nd vd kinh td. Tdng san phlm qudc ndi GDP ndm 2014 da giam gin 5% so vdi nam 2013 va du kidn vdn cdn tidp tiic giam sdu trong cdc nam tidp theo.
Doanh sd bdn le ndi dia sut giam vdi tdc dd ldn ehua tiing thiy k i tft khiing hoang tai chinh. San lupng cdng nghiep lao ddc khdng phanh, ddng ndi td hryvnia cua Ukraine mdt gid k^ Iuc bit chip nhimg bien phdp can thiip eua Chinh phft, keo theo dd la ddng vdn dlu tu nu&: ngoai d at rftt ra khoi Kiev. Du trft ngoai ti eua Kiev da can kiit do phai bio vd ddng hryvnia trudc nguy co mdt gid trim ttpng hon. Them vdo dd, viic phai bao ve he thdng ngdn hdng tmdc nguy co sup do cang khidn cho np cdng ciia Ukraine tang eao.
Theo cdc sd hiu thdng ki, ddng hryvnia cua Ukraine (^ mit gid tdi 91,5% ttong nam 2014.
Oii sd BNY Mellon ctia Ukraine da giam xudng 40,18% ngay sau khi Ngan hang Trung uimg Ukraine quydt dinh tha ndi ddng hryvnia.
Theo Hang tin Reutere, khoang 33% d c khoan tidn gfti da bi rut khdi he thdng ngan hang eua nude d y . vdi gia tri ldn tdi gin 6,8 ty USD. Chi tiiih rieng trong thdng 10/2014, du trft ngoai hdi c d Ukraine da giam 23,2%
xudng cdn 12,6 ly USD va la mfte ihip nhdt trong vdng 9 nam qua.
Kdt thftc nam 2014, du trft ngoai
Nin kinh te Ukraine dang trai qua giai doan khung hoang kinh te tram trpng nhat ke tft nam 1991, GDP tang trudng am, lam phat va np cdng tang cao, dong npi te mat gia, dii trft vang va ngoai bdi can kiet.. do tinh hinh b^t dn d khu vuc mien Ddng va xuat khau sut giam.
te eua Ukraine chi edn khoang 7,8 ty USD- Cdc chuyen gia kinh td nhdn dinh, Ukraine ed nhiiu kha ndng bi vo np ttong vdng 5 ndm tdi. Nguyen nhdn eua su sut giam du tru ngoai hdi la Kiev phai ttieb 2 ty USD dd trp edp eho Cdng ty ndng lupng qudc doanh Naftogaz, ttieb 641 tridu USD di thanh loan d c khoan vay nude ngoai ddn ban vd ttich gin 1,2 ty USD de can thiep thi trudng nham ngdn chan da mit gia manh ciia ddng ndi te hryvnia.
Cdc chuyin gia udc tinh, d c khoan np tin dung cua Ukraine da idn ban 70% GDP Tmh hinh cang ttd nin tdi t i ban khi Ukraine cd nghTa vu phai tra 1,6 ty USD tiin np cho Tap doan khi ddt Gazprom cua Nga.
Tap chi Forbes danh gid.
ndu tdng np cua Ukraine vupt qud 60% GDP (ma hiin nay da ldn hon 70%) thi nguy co vd np cua Ukraine se d mftc "rat nguy l a j f ^ m h S6 2-Kt2THANG1/201S ^ ]
hiem". Hang danh gid tui nhiem Fitch eho biet, ty li np chftih frtiu/GDP eiia Ukraine da tang gip 4 ldn ke tii nam 2008. Nin kinh tdUkraine cd ty l i dd la hda eao, de bi tdc ddng bdi su bidn ddng cua ty gid, do dd kha nang tra np ciia chinh {diu, bang cdn d ^ ke toan cua cac ngdn hang vd nin kuih td r ^ de bi tdn thuong.
Ngdn hang Goldman Sachs nhto dinh, np cdng eua Ukraine tdng len khoing 70% GDP ttx)ng nam 2014 (ndm 2013 la 40% GDP) TO 77% GDP ttong nam 2015. eao hon ngudng np bin vihig theo tieu chuin cua IMF
Theo Ngdn hdng Tnmg Uifflg Ukraine, vao tiidng 2/2014 (tfidi diem trudc khi cuu Tdng tfidng Yanukovych bi Idt dd), dti ttfl vang e d nudc nay cd gid tri khoang 1.8 ly USD, ttiong duong 12% Sng du ttfl qudc gia, Tuy nhien, din ngay 1/11/2014, du ttft vang qude gia e d Kiev chi edn lai 123,6 ttieu USD, chidm 1% tdng
iJ^'^i
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TAI CHINH QUOC TE^ u ttir 12,6 ty USD cua Kiev.
Nhung khd khan ttlm trpng cfta Ukraine la nguyin nhdn chinh khien Td chftc xdp hang tin dung Standard&Poois ha bac tui nhiem eua Ukraine xudng mftc CCC- vdi trien vpng tieu cue, ddng thdi canh bdo du trfl ngoai te thdp ddn niftc nguy hiim eua Ukraine cd thi khien nude nay vd np ehi ttong vdng vai thang tdi.
Nhieu ngudn tin cho bidt, khoan tui dung tti gid 17 Xy USD ma IMF hfta se eho Ukraine vay theo tftng dot da bi hoan lai. Viic IMF tri hoan cung d p vidn tip cftng vdi tinh trang du trft ngoai t i chuih thftc cua Ukrauie sut giam manh se ldm pA tang nguy co oiinh phu Ukraine khdng ed kha ndng thue hien d c nghia vu tdi chinh. Eio dd, nguy co vd no dd'i vdi Ukraine ngay d n g tdng ndu nudc nay khdng dupc nhdn them khoan hd trp tai chuih mdi.
Cdu vien cftu trp trong vd vpng Thft tudng Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk ehinh thftc thfta nhdn, nudc nay eln khin edp hang ty USD vien tto bd sung di ttanh cho nin kinh td rai vao vd np.
Thu tudng Yatsenyuk cho bidt, eln td chftc khin cdp mdt hdi nghi cac nhd tai ttp de huy ddng them khoang 15 ty USD bd sung vao sd tiin hang ty USD ma phuang Tay da cam kdt vien trg vd cho vay nham giup Ukraine vupt qua giai doan khd khan nay.
Tinh ddn nay, Ukraine mdi nhan dupc khoang 7 ty USD vien tip thdng qua cdc khoan vay ciia IMF. Song, sd tidn nay cm dft ngdn chdn mdt cudc khung hodng no tftc thdi nhimg khdng du sftc giftp Ukraine tdi xdy dung mdt nen kinh td vdn da kiet qud.
Trong khi GDP sut giam manh, ngudi tieu dung lai phai ddi mat vdi nhflng hda don ndng lupng cao ngdt ngudng va ddng ndi te mil gid ttlm ttpng. Khoan vien tto bd sung md Ukraine d n ttong ndm 2015 de thodt khoi khiing hoang kinh td chdc chdn se ldn hon eon sd 19 ty USD ma IMF ude tinh.
IMF dang tam dftng giai ngdn gdi tm dtmg 17 ty Ul33 da cam kdt cho Ukraine vay theo tftng dot trudc dd vdi ly do Ukrauie phai dap ftng d c dieu kidn ma dinh che tai chinh nay dua ra, tftc la dp dung chinh sdch "that lung budc bung" de giam chi tidu cdng tft 48% xudng edn 45% vdo nam 2017. Ddy cung la nhflng didu kien hdt sftc ngat ngheo ma IMF da timg dp dung cho qud'c gia
"chua ehdm" Hy Lap.
Tinh thd cang ttd nen tuyet vpng hem ddi vdi Ukraine khi tai Hdi nghi thupng d n h tiiudng kf eua Lien minh chdu Au (EU) diin ra ngdy 18/12/2014 tai Brussels (Bi). Chu tieh uy ban chdu Au Jean-Qaude Juncke tuyen bd rang EU dang can kiet ngudn ngdn sdch d i lid ttp Ukraine. Ddp lai yeu d u eua Kiev ve viec nhanh chdng giai ngdn nd't 0,2 ty euro trong gdi vien ttp tai chiiih vi md tri gid 2 ty euro cua EU cho Ukraine, Cao uy chdu Au vi ede ehinh sdeh md rdng va khu vue lan can Johannes Hahn khdng dinh, EU sin sang tidp ttic cung d p vidn ttp cho Kiev vdi didu kien Kiev cd nhftng kdt q d eai d e h cu thi. Dlu nam 2014, EU da eung cap vien ttp tdi clmih VI md cho Ukiaine vdi tidng tti gia 1,8 ty euro. Sd tien 200 trieu euro cdn lai la khoan giai ngdn cudi ciing trong gdi vien ttp 2 ty euro md Ukraine dang d i x d t dupe nhdn vdo ddu nam 2015 chua bidt ed dupe thuc hien hay khdng.
Khi EU ttiyen bd can kiit kha ndng tai chiiih, ldng giin^ Nga ttiyin bd chi hpp tae binh ddng va khdng tttf gjftp nhu ttitde nfia, Ukraine cH cdn cddi t r ^ g chd \ ^ su giftp dd cua My de Ididi i^uc dit nudc dang bi tan phd tiing ngdy bdi c h i ^ su cang thdng d miin Ddng va Tiin kuih te nglp n ^ bd vtjre j M san. TUy nhidn, gidi phdn tt'eh nhdn dinh i^ng, su giftp dd c d My (niii cd) cung chi mang tiiih tupng ttimg vi Washington cd q d nhiiu thft igbm quan tdm trraig d e v& di toan d u . Khd khan c d ndn kinh td Ukraine vdn edn dang d^iiatiude •
TIN Q U O C TE Brazil nhap sieu Idn nhat ke tft nam 1998
Ngdy 5/1. Bg Phdt trien, Cong nghiep vd Ngogi thuang Brazil thong bdo, ndm 2014, nudc ndy bi nhgp sieu 3,93 ty USD. Ddy cung Id mice nhdp sieu ldn nhdt ke tit ndm 1998. khi Brazil bi thdm hut han 6.6 ty USD trong trao ddi ngogi thuang. Nguyin nhdn cua tinh trgng nhdp siiu Id chi phi nhdp nhien lieu tdng, gid nguyin lieu xudt khdu - trong dd cd qudng sal dd gidm sdu vd bdi cdnh qudc te bdt ldi, trong do phdi ki de'n su suy gidm kinh ti' cua Argentina, mgt trong nhiing ddi tdc thuang mgi ldn nhdt cua Brazil.
Chinh phu Brazil du kien trong ndm 2015 se trd lgi xudt siiu do nhgp siiu nhiin lieu gidm nhd gid ddu lao ddc trin thi trudng the gidi, tdng xudt khdu sang My do kinh te nudc ndy phuc hSi mgnh han vd sdn luang ngd cdc, cdc logi ddu... cua Brazil du kie'n si dgt ky luc vd ldn ddu tiin vuot mdc 200 triiu tdn.
Ngan hang Han Quoc cam ket se gift nguyen chinh sach tien te ndi Idng
Theo Ngdn hdng Trung uang Hdn Qudc (BoK), ky vgng ve chi sdnii'm tin tiiu diing trong thdng 12/2014 dd gidm tUmiic 103 cua thdng trudc dd xudng mdc 102, ddnh ddu thdng gidm thii ba lien tii'p vd cung Id mdc thdp nhdt ke td thdng 412013 vd Igm phdt trong ndm 2015 gidm xudng 2,6% - mdc thdp nhdt ketdthdng 2/2002, trong do lam phdt duac cho Id tut xudng mice thdp nhdt trong 20 nam qua.
BoK dd len tiing cam ke't se gia nguyen chinh sdch tien te ndi long vdo ndm 2015 vd hy vgng rdng chinh sdch ndy se gidp ddy lam phdt tdng len •
laJE^mh S0 2-KfZniAHG1/2015