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KINH TE THE Gldl
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K I N H T E T H E oidfi T H A N G 8 / 2 0 0 9
KINH TE MY TREN CON DITONG PHUC HOI CHONG GAI
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inh te My b i t d a u cd nhiing d a u hieu phuc hdi vdi tang trudng tdng s a n p h a m qudc ndi (GDP) dang hudng ve mdc dUdng, thi trudng bat ddng san bat dau a m len, cac n h a dau t u cd cd hdi giai ngan khi t h i t r u d n g chiing khoan (TTCK) tang diem. Tuy nhien, su phuc hdi nay mdi chi thuan tiiy ve m a t ky thuat. De cd the phuc hdi day dii thi can them hai dieu kien niia, dd la tinh trang cdng a n viec lam dugc cai thien va ngudi dan tieu dimg nhieu hon. Nhung ca hai yeu td nay deu chua cd trong nen kinh te Idn nhat the gidi nay.Tin hi^u Iqc quan
Thdng ke mdi n h a t cho thay Tdng san pham qude ngi (GDP) ciia My, thudc do mgi boat ddng kinh te, trong Quy 11/2009 chi giam 1% so vdi ciing ky n a m ngoai, sau khi giam tdi 6,4%
trong 3 thang d a u n a m nay.
Kinh te My da chinh thuc suy thoai t u Quy IV/2008 va da lien tiep trai qua 4 quy tang trudng am. Mgt so cac n h a phan tich da tang du bao cho eon sd tang trudng GDP cho Quy III/2009 la tit 2,5 den 3% va ed k h a n a n g se giii viing su phat trien cho den het nam nay va se chinh thiic
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Trong thang 7/2009, doanh so ban 6 to va linh l<ien c6 muc fang mqnh nhai (2,4%), nha duoc lai tCr chuong trinh "Cash-for-clunkers", ddi xe cu tdn nhieu nhien lieu lay xe moi tiei kiem nhien lieu han. Anh ST
dua nude My r a khdi edn suy thoai. N h u vay, yeu to t a n g trudng GDP cd chieu hudng k h a quan va t h u a n ldi eho su phuc hdi.
Sau khi Bg Lao ddng cdng bd ty le t h a t nghiep trong t h a n g Bay giam nhe xudng 9,4%, Tdng thdng Baraek Obama tuyen bd la kinh te My da r a khdi bd vue va dang xay dung lai mgt nen mdng phat trien mdi. Cue Du trii Lien bang My (FED) edn quyet dinh giam dan tdc do ciia chuong trinh m u a 300 ty USD trai phieu Chinh phii vao cudi t h a n g 10/2009, sdm hon mgt t h a n g so vdi du kien. Tuy nhien, Cd quan nay van quyet dinh giii nguyen lai suat cd b a n d mufc t h a p ky luc 0-0,25% (da ap dung tii t h a n g 12/2008) trong mgt thdi gian mia. FED cho h a y "mute lai s u i t t h a p va cac h a n h ddng quyet liet khac da giiip nen kinh te tang trudng dan", song, "boat
ddng kinh te se tiep tuc yeu va nguy eg lam phat van cdn trong mgt thdi gian mia".
Ngay 11/8, n h a t a i phiet George Soros ndi rang kinh te My da cham day va trong quy III se chiing kien s u t a n g trudng tich cue n h d vao gdi kich thich chi tieu ciia Chinh phii. Trudc dd, Giao s u Paul K r u g m a n , ngudi doat giai Nobel Kinh te n a m 2008, cung nhan djnh kinh te My dang di vao dn dinh va cd the da r a khdi day. Nhiing n h a n dinh sang siia ve dau t a u kinh te the gidi nay dugc dua r a sau mgt loat cac dii lieu n h u sd ngudi My bi m a t viec lam giam lan dau tien trong vdng mdt n a m qua va ty le t h a t nghiep t h a n g 7/2009 da giam 1% so vdi t h a n g 6/2009.
Trong t h a n g 7/2009, doanh sd ban d td va linh kien c6 miie t a n g m a n h nhat (2,4%), nhd dugc Igi tu: ehudng t r i n h "Cash-for- clunkers", ddi xe cu tdn nhieu
So 9 - Thing 9 Nam 2009 Chirng khoin Viet Nam R 3
KINH TE THE Gldl
nhien lieu lay xe mdi tiet kiem nhien lieu hon.
Tuy chi chiem 5% dan so toan cau, n h u n g My lai san xuat tdi 25% san lugng eiia the gidi va siie tieu t h u rat m a n h ciia thi trudng My tuong duong vdi 70%
san lugng toan cau, la dau may kinh te dang ke, n h a t la cho cae nude mudn xuat k h a u vao thj t r u d n g My. My eii tieu t h u , t h a m chi di vay de tieu thu, trong khi the gidi san xuat de ban h a n g cho My va t h u tien ve, ed khi lai eho My vay de tiep tue tieu thu, dan den trinh trang mat can ddi toan cau ve chi thu.
Gidi phan tich kinh te qudc te cho r i n g kinh te My rd rang la
chuong t r i n h hd t r d ngudi m u a xe d td mdi n h a m thiie day doanh so ban cua n g a n h cdng nghiep xe hdi. Theo mdt cugc dieu t r a tren quy md Idn ve t a m ly tieu diing, xu hudng chi tieu hien nay cho thay ngudi My van cdn lo l i n g ve trien vgng kinh te d a t nude. Nhiing so' lieu ve doanh so' ban le h a n g t h a n g eho thay chieu hudng tieu diing cua nguoi dan My, vdn chiem tdi 2/3 san lugng cua nen kinh te Idn nha't t h e gidi. Cac chuyen gia kinh te canh bao chi tieu tieu diing ciia My dang chiu siic ep Idn, trong bdi canh ty le tiet kiem ciia cac hd gia dinh dang gia tang, giiia liic eude suy thoai
^BSuphuc hoi cua nen kinh teMy m&i chi thuan tuy pe mat ky thuat. ©e c6 the phuc hoi day du thi cdn them hai dieu kien vdn con thieu trong nen kinh My, do Id tinh trgng cong dn viec lam duac cai thien vd ngudi ddn tieu dung nhieu hcm.ggj
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dang dan t h o a t khdi khiing hoang, nhimg se v i n phai duong dau vdi khdng it rao can ma trong dd phai ke den la thi trudng viee lam cdn yeu va t a m ly lo ngai ciia ngudi tieu diing.
Nhung gam mdu xam Nen kinh te Idn nha't the gidi dang cd nhiing mang mau sang, tdi dan xen khi linh vuc ehe tao nhich len, thi trudng bat ddng s i n cd nhiing dau hieu viing dan thi doanh thu ciia nganh ban le v i n r a t yeu. Doanh sd ban le ciia My giam ngoai du kien vdi 0,1%
t h a n g 7/2009 va la lan giam dau tien trong ba t h a n g qua, eho thay nguoi tieu diing v i n cdn
" t h i t chat hau bao" bat chap viec Chinh phu t h u e hien
nghiem trgng vdn nd r a tii t h a n g 12/2007 va ty le t h a t nghiep d miic cao cd the se keo dai it nha't la sang nam tdi. Chi tieu tieu diing eiia My sut giam m a n h trong Quy 11/2008, thdi diem m a eon bao k h u n g hoang tai chinh toan cau t a n g cudng do va day nen kinh te the gidi vao mdt cugc suy thoai sau. Ngudi tieu diing da md h l u bao mgt each t h a n trgng trong Quy 1/2009, day chi tieu tieu dung t a n g 0,5%, n h u n g sau dd con sd nay lai giam 1,2%
t r o n g Quy 11/2009, m a c dii Chinh phii My da trien k h a i chuong t r i n h kich thich kinh te khdng Id.
Nhiing dii lieu kinh te trong t h a n g 7 cho thay, khu vue t u n h a n trong nen kinh te My da
giam d a n toe do sa t h a i nhan cdng. Dieu d a n g miing la lan dau tien ti le t h a t nghiep ed dau hieu suy giam s a u 16 t h a n g lien tiep tang. Mae du vay, Chinh quyen ciia Tdng thdng Baraek Obama van canh bao ngudi dan la ti le t h a t nghiep ed the se edn tiep tue t a n g len t r e n 10% trudc khi thue s u giam trd lai. Ti le t h a t nghiep eao ludn la mgt mdi a u lo vi mdt so lao ddng bi mat di, khdng tao r a ciia cai ma con lam n g a n sach n h a nude phai tdn kem t h e m de giiip hg sinh sdng. So viec lam bi m a t giam n h a n h tii miie t r e n 700.000 trong t h a n g 2 xudng cdn khoang gan 250.000 vao t h a n g 7. Dudng nhien la vi con sd' nay van cdn la sd am, chiing td k h u vuc t u nhan ciia My chua tao t h e m cdng an viee lam mdi va phai tiep tuc phai sa t h a i n h a n cdng. Tuy nhien, "mang m a u tdi" nay thuc te da dude dii bao tut lau. Cii sdc ddi vdi kinh te My b i t ngudn tii eude k h u n g hoang t a i chinh qua n a n g ne, den miic gdi kich thich khdng Id gan 800 ty USD eiia N h a T r l n g v i n chua dii.
Mac dii vay, v i n cdn nhiing he luy dang lo ngai khac: Chi khoang 1/4 trong tdng gdi kich thich duge chi ngay trong nam 2009, p h a n cdn lai se duge danh cho n h i i n g d u a n t u o n g lai.
Trong khi dd. My dang phai ddi m a t vdi t i n h t r a n g t h u ngan sach t u t dd'c m a n h . Van phdng Ngan sach Qudc hoi My (CBO), thdng bao t h a m h u t ngan sach ciia nude nay trong 10 thang dau tien tai khoa 2009 (tii thang 10/2008 - t h a n g 7/2009) da cham ngudng 1.300 ty USD. Siie ep can b i n g t h a m h u t ngan sach, ddng nghia vdi viec My buoc phai t a n g t h u e hoac c i t giam chi tieu, mgt bude di "tien thoai ludng n a n " ddi vdi Chinh quyen J 2 Chiing khoin Viet Nam
So 9 - Thing 9 Nam 2009
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KINH TE THE Gldl la
Obama. Cung liic, khoang 1/3 gdi kich thich dugc cam ket cho ke hoach giam thue chua the mang lai hieu qua tiie thi. Cac hg gia dinh, vdn dang phai o I n minh vdi ganh nang nd nan trong khi tien tiet kiem hum tri va trien vgng viee lam eiia hg van r a t am dam, se chi chi tieu mgt p h I n nhd trong so tien duge giam thue.
Khdng chi d My ma bat ky dau tren the gidi, mgi su chii y deu dugc tap trung vao viec "sila chiia" he thdng ngan hang. Dieu nay la e i n thiet de khdi phuc da tang trudng kinh te, nhung it hieu qua. Cac ngan hang se khdng s i n sang cho vay neu nen kinh te chua thoat khdi tinh trang suy thoai, ddng thdi cac hd gia dinh My ciing se ludng lu di vay tien, hoac it nhat khdng cdn canh tieu xai phdng tiing nhu trudc giai doan suy thoai. Ngudi tieu dung My ehinh la d i u may cho su tang trudng toan ciu, song dieu nay cd the tiep tuc hi can trd, tham chi ngay ca khi he thdng ngan hang da dudc thanh Igc. Trong khi dd, mdt sd chuyen gia lai bay td sir quan tam ve cac khoan nd qudc gia dang gia tang tai My, ciing nhiing t r a n h cai phan ddi cac khoan ciiu trd ngan hang xau, vdn tieu tdn hang tram ty USD ciia ngudi ddng thue. Mgt sd khac lo lang ve khoan chi manh tay ciia Chinh phii se dan den nguy cd lam phat. Nhung van de trudc mat van la tinh trang giam phat, khien ty le that nghiep tang cao va vugt qua kha nang. Tuy nhien, ciing cd nhiing y kien eho r i n g lam phat ed the keo theo viec tang lai s u i t dai ban. Do dd, cae nha quan ly chinh sach tien te can r i t canh giae, va tiep tuc
Dieu mung nhdt cho nhung nhd ddu tu la TTCK My da tang mgnh tu gii/a tfiang 3/2009.
Anh ST duy tri su can thiep "phi chuan hda" ciia minh, nham nd lute Idem soat lai s u i t ngan va dai ban.
Rd rang tae ddng ghe gdm ciia suy thoai kinh te da dan tdi ty le that nghiep cao va thieu ngudn tin dung danh cho sd ddng doanh nghiep va ngudi dan. Van phong Hanh chinh cae Tda an My cdng bd trong Quy II nam nay cd hon 380.000 trudng hgp nop ddn xin bao hg pha san tai My. Sd doanh nghiep xin bao hg pha san (de t r a n h cac nghia vu vdi chii nd trong thdi han nhat djnh) len tdi hon 16.000, eon sd cao n h a t trong mgt quy tinh tii nam 1993, nang tdng sd doanh nghiep xin pha san trong 6 t h a n g dau nam nay len hon 27.000.
Theo chinh quyen Obama, t h a m hut ngan sach Lien bang My se tang len miic cao dinh diem 1.840 ty USD trong tai khda hien nay, gap 4 l l n so vdi miie ky luc nam ngoai. Tdng miie t h a m h u t trong giai doan tii nam 2010 den 2019 se len tdi 7.100 ty USD. Qua cae sd lieu va dii kien eu the, tuy van cdn
nhiing e ngai nhat dinh, n h a t la ve van de t h a t nghiep, hau bet cae nha phan tich deu ddng y la kmh te My da bude qua giai doan phuc hdi va nhiing biin khoan ve mdt cugc Dai Khiing hoang t a m cd 1929 khdng cdn niia. Dieu d a n g ndi la hien tugng phuc hdi kinh te mang tinh chat toan cau, cac qudc gia phat trien deu ddng loat ghi nhan nhiing con sd dang phan khdi ve kinh te, giiip eho su phuc hdi toan bd hdn. Mat khac, mgt so' cdng ty tai ehinh Idn eiia My da tien h a n h tra lai tien vay cua Chinh phii hoac chia ldi n h u n g khoan dang ke cho ngan sach nha nude. 10 ngan hang Idn ciia My, trong dd cd American Express, Goldman Sachs, J P Morgan Chase va Morgan Stanley, da dugc chap t h u a n t r a lai tien vay Chinh phii mgt sd lugng tdng cdng la 68,3 ty USD, tugng dudng 1/4 tdng so tien Chinh phii da bd ra. Cdng ty Freddie Mac bao cao lai 768 trieu USD va t r a lai cho Chinh phii 1,1 ty USD. Cdng ty timg dugc menh danh la "thay ma"
AIG Cling bao cao quy viia qua lai 1,82 ty USD. Chinh phii hien sd hiiu khoang 80% tai san eong ty AIG qua dang cd phieu uu dai. Hdi ddng Quan tri dang tim each ban mgt sd tai san de tra lai khoan tien ng len tdi hdn 134 ty USD. Neu mgi chuyen t h u a n loi, AIG cd kha nang giam sd ng Chinh phii xudng edn 18 ty USD sau khi dugc xoa no them mgt phan dang ke. Dieu mimg nha't cho nhiing nha dau tU la TTCK My da tang m a n h tit giua t h a n g 3/2009 va chieu hudng nay se cdn tiep tuc it n h a t cho den het nam nay neu mgi chuyen tien trien t h u a n Igi, khdng cd n h u n g dot bien lam thay ddi bg mat cua kinh te toan eau. ®
So 9 - Thing 9 Nam 2009 Chirng khoin Viet Nam ^CT