N G H l i N CUU TRAO D 6 | Kmn le - i^z::!lJt
KINH T t V l i T NAM NAM 2019
\/A T R I E N 1>P(NG fN^m 2 0 3 0
re. Nguyin Thi Tue Anh *
T6in tit: Thong qua cac s6 lieu thdng ke thuc td ciia cac co quan Nha mrcic, bai bao trinh bay vd ttoh hhih phat tridn kinh td cua Viet Nam trong nam 2019, nhimg ket qua dat dugc va dua ra mgt s8 nhan xet danh gia, ddng thdi gidi thieu hai kich ban <bf bao tridn vpng cua ndn kuih td Viet Nam trong nam 2020, ciing nhu cac bidn phap can quan tam.
Tir khoa: Kinh td, tang truong kinh td, \m phat, CPI, GDP, co cau kmh te.
Abstract: The article presents the economic development by the year 2019 and provides two forecast scenarios for Vietnam's economy hy the year 2020.
Eeywords: Economy, economic (-al), economic growth, inflation, economic struture.
Nam 2019, kinh td VietNam ddi mat vao nhiing kdt qua tich cue vd kinh td, vgi nhidu nil ro va bat dn gia tang ctia xa hgi.
kinh td thd gioi va thuong mai toan ciu, 1. Biic franh tdng quat ve kinh te cGng nhu mpt sd kho khan d trong nuoc. Vigt Nam nam 2019
Tuy nhien, ciing cd mgt sd ydu td thuan Tdc do tang GDP ca nam dat 7,02%, lgi la cdng tac didu hanh chinh sach, cai thap hon mpt chiit so v6i muc tang nam each kinh te cua dat nuoc da the hien 2018 (7,08%), vugt xa so du bao ciia nhidu diem sang, ddng gdp quan trpng nhieu td chuc qudc te (6,8%) (Hinh 1).
Hinh 1. T6c dd tang tru-ffng GDP 2009 - 2019
Tang tnj-ong GDP 10 nam gan flay
"S"' •dngke
* Nguyen Phd Vien tnidng, Vien Nghien ciiu
quan ly kinh td Trang uong. Bo Kg hoacli VE "'"'" "^"""^ "' ^
NGHIEN CUU TRAO O d i Tdc do tang tradng ciia khu vuc ndng,
lam nghiep va thuy san cham lai, chi dat 2,01%, ddng gdp 4,6% vao muc tang chung, thap nhat hong vdng ba nam trd lai day. San xuat ndng nghiep gap nhidu khd khan ve thi tradng tieu thu ndng san va chua tan dung dugrc co hdi xuat khau tir cac hiep dinh tu do thuong mai ma ViSt Nam tham gia, dac biet la tac ddng xiu keo dai cua dich ta Ign chau Pbi tdi nganh chan nudi. Rieng nganh thiiy san (ca hong linh vuc nudi hong va khai thac) tang tradng kha tdt, dat 6,12%.
Khu vuc cdng nghiep - xay dung tiep tuc la ddng luc tang tradng cua nen kinh te, vdi tdc dp tang gia tri gia tang la 8,9%, ddng gdp 50,4% vao tang tradng chung cua nen kmh te. Rieng nganh cdng nghiep che bien, che tao tang 11,29%. Dang Imi y la sau ba nam sut giam lien tuc, nganh khai khoang tang trudng duong, phan nao bu dap cho su sut giam cua khai thae dau thd, nhung gay ra lo ngai ve viec quay hd lai rad hinh tang tradng kinh te dua vao khai thac va xuat khau khoang san nhu giai doan trade nam 2016.
Toe do tang tradng cua khu vuc dich vu dat 7,3%, ddng gdp 45% vao muc tang tradng chung cua nen kmh te. Cac nganh dich vu thi tra'dng cd miic tang kha, nhu:
nganh van tai, kho bai tang 9,12%; ban budn va ban le tang 8,82%; boat ddng tai chinh, ngan hang va bao hiem tang 8,62%.
Co cau kinh te nam 2019 co chuyen bien tich cue vdi ty trong khu vuc nong, lam nghiep va thuy san giam xudng 13,96% GDP, so vdi miic 14,68% cua nam 2018; ty hong cua khu vuc cong nghiep va xay dung chi8m 34,49%, ciia khu vuc dich vu chigm 41,64% va cua thue san phim tni trp cip san phim chiem 9,91%.
Chi sd gia tieu dimg CPI tang dan trd lai: thang 12/2019 tang 1,4% so vdi thang
trade, miic tang cao nhat hong 9 nam qua;
tinh chung quy rV/2019 tang 2,01% so vdi quy trade va tang 3,66% so vdi quy IV/2018; bmh quan nam 2019 tang 2,79%
so vdi miic bmh quan nam 2018, dudi muc tieu Quoc hoi dh ra va ciing la miic tang binh quan nam thap nhat hong 3 nam qua.
Cac yeu td chii yeu tac dpng tdi CPI gdm:
dieu chinh tang gia mpt sd nhdm hang do Nha nudc quan ly gia; dieu chinh giam 3 lan lien tiep gia xang dau; tang gia nhdm hang luong thuc - thuc pham la cao nhat (dat 3,42%) chu yeu do thieu hut ngudn cung thit 1cm vi nan dich ta Chau phi. Lam phat CO ban bmh quan nam 2019 tang 2,01% so vdi binh quan nam 2018.
Tinh din ngay 20/12/2019, tdng phuong hen thanh toan (M2) tang 12,1%
so vdi cudi nam 2018 (cung ky nam 2018 tang 11,3%); huy dpng von ciia cac to chiic tin dung tang 12,5% (cimg ky nam 2018 tang 11,5%); tang trudng tin dung cua nen kinh te tang 12,1% (cung ky nam 2018 tang 13,3%). Ty gia VND/USD dn dinh hon so vdi nam 2018.
Nam 2019, von dau tu toan xa hpi thuc hien theo gia Men hanh udc dat 2.046,8 nghin ty ddng, tang 10,2% so vdi nam trade va bang 33,9% GDP, bao gom: von khu vuc nha nudc dat 634,9 nghin ty dong, chidm 31 % tdng vdn va tang 2,6% so vdi nam trade; khu vuc ngoai nha nudc dat 942,5 nghin ty ddng, chiem 46% va tang 17,3% - la mpt diem sang hong hoat ddng dau tu; khu vuc cd vdn dau tu true tiep nudc ngoai dat 469,4 nghm ty dong, chidm 23% va tang 7,9% vdi su dich chuyen cua mpt sd ddi tac quan hpng, nhu Trang Qudc (ka ca Hdng Kdng): 10,26 ty USD, chiim 32,3% tdng von dang ky, gap 2,9 lan so vdi ciing ky, Han Qudc: 5,73 ty USD, chiim 18% tong von dang ky, Singapore: 4,5 ty USD, chiim 14,1% tdng vdn dang ky.
Tap chi Kinh doanh vd Cong nghe So 06/2020
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NGHIEN CUU TRAO DOI Bdng 1. Von dau tu" phat
T O N G S O
I- Von dau tir thugc ngan sach Nha nudc 1-Von trai phieu Chinh phu 2 - V o n tin d u n g d a u t u theo ke hoach NN 3- V6a vay tir cac nguon khiic (ciia khu vuc Nhii nudc) 4- Vdn dau tw ciia doanh nghi?p Nha nuoc (Vfint^rcd)
11- Von dau tu ciia dan cu va tu nhan m - Vdn d^u tu tnrc tiep nudc ngoai IV- Von huv dona khac
trien toan xa hoi
Thirc hien
2019
555-3 95.1 9.4 10.5
29.2
16.9 264,7 118,4 1 1 2
l / d c tinh
2019
669.8 119,5 112 11-5
35 3
17,3 3184 142-3 14 3
thu-c hien theo
Nam 2019
20-16.8
342 9 34 1 41.4
1109
64.6 942 5 469.4 41 1
So vol gu^ m
2019
110.2 106-3 S3-8 112-9
92.7
97-7 117.3 106 3 138 3
- • - ^
1 gia hie
^ j o r ^ _ _
110.4
108.3 83-6 110.6
91,2
79,0 1183 106.7 150-0
mmti ^y
ianh
.-(Jdii^ - ,i(idc (%)
Nam 2019
110.2 105 8 84.6 114.3
94.5
91.1 117.3 107.9 137.7
Tdng kim ngach xuat libap khau hang hda nam 2019 udc hnh dat 516,96 ty USD, hong dd kim ngach xuat khau hang hda dat 263,45 ty USD, tang 8,1% so vdi nam trade, dupc thuc day bdi sir phat trien manh me cua khu vuc kinh te trong nudc trong ITnh vuc xuat khau vdi tdc dp tang hudng tdi 17,7%, cao hon rat nhieu tdc dp tang cua khu vuc cd vdn dau tu nudc ngoai (4,2%). Can can thuong mai hang hda nam 2019 udc tinh xuat sieu 9,9 ty USD, mirc cao nhdt trong 4 nam lien tiep xuat sieu.
Xuat khau duy tri tdc dp tang tradng cao trong bdi canh kinh te the gidi va thuong mai toan cau cham lai. Kim ngach hang hda xuat khau ca nam udc dat 263,45 ty USD, tang 8,1 % so vdi nam 2018, hong dd khu vuc kinh te trong nudc dat 82,10 ty USD, tang 17,7%, chiim 31,2% tdng kim ngach xuat khau; khu vuc c6 vdn diu tu nudc ngoai (ke ca dau thd) dat 181,35 ty
Nguon: Tong cue Thong ke USD, tang 4,2%, chiim 68,8%. (ty trpng giam 2,5 diim phan tram so vdi nam trudc). Dieu do cho thay kha nhieu doanh nghiep trong nudc da khai thac hieu qua mpt sd hiep dinh thuong mai tu do (FTA), dac biet ddi vdi nhiing mat hang nudc ta cd Ipi the. Trong nam 2019 co 32 mat hang dat kim ngach xuat khau tren 1 ty USD, chiem 92,9% tong kim ngach xuat khau (6 mat bang dat kim ngach xuat khau tren 10 ty USD, chiim 63,4%), trong do dien thoai va Iinh kien cd gia tri xuat khau ldn nhat dat 51,8 ty USD, ehiim 19,7%
tdng kim ngach xuat khau, tang 5,3%) so vdi nam trudc; dien tu, may tinh va lirih kien dat 35,6 ty USD, tang 20,4%; hang det may dat 32,6 ty USD, tang 6,9%; may moc thiit bi, dung cu phu timg dat 18,3 ty USD, tang 11,9%; giay dep dat 18,3 ty USD, tang 12,7%; gd va '^•^ ,§ ^^^
10,5 ty USD, tang 18
NGHIEN CUU TRAO DOI Tuy vay, xuat khau ciia Viet Nam van
tang cham do mdt sd thach thiie, nhu giam Slit thuong mai toan cau ndi chung, tiep tuc chiu Sir canh hanh manh bdi cac nudc chii trpng hon thi tradng npi dia ciia hp, viec thiet lap cac hang rao ky thuat tinh vi hon va gia tang bao bd thuong mai, ciing nhu gia tang cac yeu td chi phi dau vao (gia dien, gia xang, luong tdi thieu viing,...).
Nam 2019, kim ngach bang hda nhap khau udc dat 253,51 ty USD, tang 7%
so vdi nam 2018, trong do khu virc kinh ti trong nudc dat 108,01 ty USD, tang 13,8%; khu vuc cd von dau tu nudc ngoai dat 145,50 ty USD, tang 2,5%.
Dang luu y, xuat nhap khau ngay cang phu thupc vao khu vuc FDI, thang du can can thuong mai chii yeu la nhd thang du thuong mai cua khu vuc nay.
Tong thu ngan sach Nha nudc tu dau nam den thdi diem 15/12/2019 udc dat 1.414.3 nghin ty ddng, bang 100,2% du toan nam, la nam thii hai lien tiep vuot du toan. Tdng chi ngan sach Nha nudc tir dau nam den thdi diim 15/12/2019 udc dat 1.316.4 nghm ty ddng, bang 80,6% du toan nam, hong do cbi thudng xuyen dat 927,9 nghin ty ddng, bang 92,8%; chi diu tu phat trien 246,7 nghin ty dong, bang 57,5%; chi ha no Iai 99,3 nghin ty ddng, bang 79,5%.
Cac chi tieu ve np cong (56,1% GDP), no nudc ngoai (45,8% GDP) hep tuc giam va bao dam ngudng an toan.
Tuy nhien, tai co cau dau tu cdng chua cd nhieu chuyen bien. Trong von dau tu ciia khu vuc Nha nudc, von hi ngan sach Nha nudc thuc hien nam 2019 udc tinh dat 342,9 nghin ty ddng, bing 89,5% ki hoach nam va tang 5,8% so vdi nam tra'dc (nam 2018 bing 92,1% va tang 12,2%).
Nhieu cdng trinh trpng diem dang ach tac vdn, gay nhiing he luy tieu cue, nhu tang them chi phi cho NSNN khi phai tra lai cho
khoan vdn ton dpng tir phat hanh TPCP, lam cham tien dp giai ngan vdn ddi ung cua khu vuc kinh te tu nhan, giam ddng lire huy ddng vdn dau tu xa hdi, hi do anh hudng den tang hrrdng kinh te. Phat hanh TPCP dupc thuc hien Iinh hoat, den cudi thang 11 dat gia tri 187,9 nghin ty ddng, tuong duong 72% ke hoach va tang 30%
ciing ky 2018. Thi tradng hai phieu doanh nghiep (TPDN) tiep tuc soi dpng vdi quy md tang khoang 10,2% GDP (2018; 8,6%
GDP), vugt muc tieu 7% GDP nam 2020 cua Chinh phii de ra.
2. IVIot so thanh tiru noi bat trong nam 2019 va mot so nam gan day
a) Tdc dp tdng tru&ng kinh te dgt kit qud dn tugng
Tang tradng kinh te dan duoc cai thien va the hien xu hudng phuc hdi ro net hong nhirng nam gan day, giai doan 2016- 2020 udc dat binh quan khoang 6,74% so vdi mdc trung binh 5,94%/nam giai doan 2011-2015 nhd su quyit tam ldn cua Cbinh phu vdi cac giai phap dieu banh nen kinh ti mdt each bieu qua, ciing nhu luc day tir cac cdng dong doanh nghiep va siic cau tu ben ngoai ddi vdi hang hoa Viet Nam.
GDP binh qudn dau ngudi nam 2019 du kiin dat 3.000 USD/ngudi, gip 1,5 lin nam 2015 (NCIF). Giai doan 2016-2019, Viet Nam eo tdc dp tang tradng kmh te cao nhat, trung binh 6,84%/nam. Theo Ngan hang Thi gidi, kinh ti Viet Nam da vu'Ot qua miic tang hu'dng hung bmh cua nhom cac nudc cd thu nhap trang bmh thap va vuon len mirc cao nhat hr nam 2017 din nay.
Tir nam 2017 din nay, khu vuc FDI lien tuc duy tri miic tang tradng cao, tren 12% trong nin kinb te nudc ta. Tang trudng ciia khu vuc kinh te nha nudc giam Slit, tu' 5,2% nam 2016 xudng 3,6%
nam 2018 va du kiin hip tuc giam, dudi 4% trong giai doan 2019-2020. Khu vuc
Tap chi 2 5 Kinh doanh va Cong nghe
Sd 06/2020 i
NGHIEN CUU TRAO D 6 i >nrini|1 ly
kinh te ngoai nha nudc thi chua cd sir biit pha dang ke, chi dat khoang 7%/nam.
Khu vuc FDI tang nhanh cd the chiia dung nhieu nii ro cho nen kinh te, dac biet hong bdi canh nhiing tap doan ldn cbi phdi san xuat, kinh doanh va thay ddi chien lupc cua rainh. Dd la chua ke nhiing nii ro kho kiem soat phat sinh tu khu vuc nay, nhu chuyen lgi nhuan ve nudc, chuyen gia, lacb thue, gian lan thuong mai,v.v.
b) Dich chuyen ca cdu kinh te tie khu vuc dich vu sang khu vue cong nghiep vd xdy dung
Vdi tdc dp tang trudng tuong ddi eao, nganh cdng nghiep va xay dung ddng gdp trang binh 2,82 diem phan tram (so vdi 2,76 diem phan ham cua nganh dich vu) vao miic tang tradng chung trong giai doan 2016-2018. Ddng thdi, ty hpng nganh cdng nghiep va xay dung trong co cau kinh te da tang tir 39,9% giai doan 2011-2015 len 44% giai doan 2016-2020.
Nhu vay, cdng nghiep (nhat la cong nghiep che bien) va xay dung da trd thanh ddng lire chu yeu cbo tang trudng GDP.
c) Khu vuc kinh ti tu nhdn trong nu&c ngdy cdng dong gop l&n hon cho phdt trien
Udc tinh, khu vuc kinh te ngoai nha nudc chiem bon 40% vao nam 2020 va ddng gdp ldn nhat trong tdng dau tu toan xa hpi chu yeu nhd nhung bien pbap cai tbien mdi trudng kinh doanh, nang cao nang lire canh tranh qudc gia (thao gdkhd khan, rao can ddi vdi doanh nghiep, giam thil tuc hanh chinh,...) va khuyen khich khdi nghiep.
Trong khi tai co cau dau tu cdng chua hieu qua, thi hieu qua su dung vdn diu tu vin chua cd nhieu cai thien. He s6 ICOR giam tir 6,42% nam 2016 xuing 5,97%
nam 2018 va du kien dudi miic 6% trong cac nam 2019-2020. He s6 ICOR trang
binh giai doan 2016-2020 vane ^luccaa 6,11% (2011-2015:6,25%). Viec menkha Luat Diu tu cdng sua doi (tliang 6/20iy) ky vong se cosu thay ddi tich cue hon
Mdi tradng kmh doanh va nang lire canh tranb cua Viet Nam da cd nhieu car thien tich cyc dugc cac td chuc quoc te ghi' nhan, cdng ddng doanh nghiep danh gia cao, dat nhiiu ky vpng vao rihung no luc cai each cua Chinh phu. Diem so va vi tri ciia Viet Nara trong Bang xep hang mdi tradng kinh doanh lien tuc dugc cai thien hr nam 2014; rieng nam 2019 xep thu 70/190 nin kinh tg, dat 68,8 diem.
Trong hai nam gin day (2018-2019), mac dii diim sd vin dugc cai thien, _nhmig tdc dp cham lai va thir bang mdi nam giam 1 bac. Trong khu vuc ASEAN, Viet Nam diing thir 5 sau cae nudc Singapore, Malaysia, Thai Lan va Branei vi xip hang mdi trudng kinh doanh. Theo Ngan hang thi gidi (2019), cimg vdi Indonesia, Viet Nam thuc hien nhiiu cai each nhit trong 16 nam qua; mdi nudc cung cd 42 cai each.
Theo ket qua xep hang eua Dien dan kinh ti the gidi nam 2019, nang luc canh tranh ciia Viet Nam da dupc cai thien dang ke. Chi sd Nang luc canh tranh 4.0 cua Viet Nara tang 10 bac so vdi 2018 (tir thir hang 77) vatang 13 bac so vdi nam 2017.
3. Triin vong kinh ti Viet Nam nam 2020
Kinh te toan ciu nam 2020 hip tuc ddi mat vdi nhung nguy co, rui ro va bat dn, cd kha nang suy giam vao nam 2020, do xung dot thuong mai gm'a cac nin kinh ti chu chdt van cang thang, hoat dpng san xuit tri tre tai nhieu quoc gia, cac dien bien bit Igi hen tbi trudng tai chlnh - tien te, tinh hang ng gia tang hen pham vi toan <_ • LI N Wihxi to chuc quoc te du bao kinh te i n, gj^jjj tang tradng: OECD (thang 9/ .,,, J^^Q
Kmh doanh vd Co
NGHIEN CUU TRAO DOI d miic 2,9% nam 2019 va 3%. nam 2020,
UNCTAD (thang 9/2019) dir bao d miic 2,3% nam 2019, IMF du bao d miic 3,3%
nam 2019 va 3,6% nam 2020.
Tinh hinh kinh te the gidi tat yeu se tac dpng tdi su phat trien kinh te cua Viet Nam. Tuy nhien, vdi su phan dau cua minh, trong dd co nhiing budc tien trien trong qua hinh dam phan/phe chuan mpt s6 hiep dinh thuong mai tu do mdi (RCEP, CPTPP, EVFTA) cd thi cung cd niim tin hon cho nha dau tu nudc ngoai ddi vdi Viet Nam.
Trong ngan ban, du bao tang trudng kinh ti nam 2020 dat 6,7%, xuit khiu dat 7,6%, thang du thuong mai dir bao d miic 2,3 ty USD va lam phat binh quan nam d miic 3,2%.
Trong dai ban, Trang tam thdng tin va Du bao kinh te - xa hpi Qudc gia dua ra bai kich ban: (i) Kich bdn casa: kinh te vT md ve CO ban dn dinh, tde dp tang tradng giai doan 2021-2025 co thi dat trang binh 7%/nam, lam phat 3,5-4,5%, ty gia VND/
USD tang 1,5-2%/nam. Nin kinh te cd su chuyen doi tuong ddi rd net, tuy van chu yeu dua vao nhiing dpng lire tang tnrdng cii, nhung chat lugng, hieu qua duoc cai thien hon. Viet Nam se budc vao nhdm
cac quoc gia thu nhap trang binh cao d cudi giai doan. (h) Kich bdn cao: doi mdi md hinh tang tradng, se tap trang hon vao phat hien khoa hpc - cong nghe va ddi mdi sang tao, thay vi phu thupc vao nhiing ddng lire tang trudng cd. Theo dd, tdc do tang tra'dng cd the dat miic 7,5%
hong giai doan 2021-2025; chuyen dich CO cau kinh te nhanh hon va chuyen hpng tam sang khu vuc djch vu; lam phat d miic 3,5-4,5%.
Dii lira chpn kich ban nao thi thuc thi chinh saeh van rat can dugc luu y va cai thien manh me hon khi sir quan tam doi vdi cai each mdi trudng kinh doanh theo Nghi quyet 02 eua Chinh phu da it nhieu giam Slit; nang suat va chat lugng lao ddng tuy dugc de cap nhieu, song chua cd bien phap mdi va cu the. Ben canh do, nhung no luc hdi nhap kinh te qudc te ndi chung, chua dupc thuc su trayen tai sau sic vao he thdng cbinh sach, tu duy va hanh dpng cua bp may nha nudc va nhan dan; su hung khdi vdi EVFTA va EVIPA (dli con chd phe chuan) chua di kem vdi tara thi chuan bi ky va cu the cho cac cai each thi chi kinh te lien quan; viec thuc hien CPTPP cdn cham du Hiep dinh nay da cd bieu luc. /.
Tai lieu tham khao
1. Td cbiic thucmg mai thi gidi (2019). Sd lieu thdng ke vd triin vgng thuang mgi.
https://www.wto.org/enghsIi/news_e/pres 18_e/pr822_e.hhn
2. Vien Nghien ciiu Quan ly kinh ti Trung uong (2019). Bdo cao kinh ti vimo quy 111/2019. Chuong trinb bd trp Austrialia vi hd hg cai each kinh ti Viet Nam;
3. Tdng cue Hai quan. Tru'c tuyin. Truy cap tai: www.customs.gov.vn 4. Tdng cue Thdng kd. True hiyin. Tray cap tai: www.gso.gov.vn
5. Trang tam Thong tin va Du bao kinh ti - xa hdi Qudc gia (2019). Trien vong hnh ti VietNam giai dogn 2021-2025: Ca hgi vd thdch thitc tir cdc Hiep dinh thuang mgi tu do thi hi m&L Ky yiu Hdi thao Khoa hpc quoc te.
Ng^y nhan bai: 13/12/2019
Tap chi Kmh doanh vd Cdng nghe So 06/2020
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