Lai suat thudng goi la yield eiia

:z ^{THE GIOII NHIN RA}

L

ai suat thudng goi la yield eiia cac loai trai phieu nay cao thap khac nhau va dugc quang ba tren cae phuong tien truyen thdng dai chiing hang ngay, vi du ngay 20/12/2008, lai suat trai phieu mudi nam la 1,124%, loai hai nam la 0,732%. T/B dugc phat mai edng khai trdn thj trudng. Ngodi ra, mot sd lugng Idn T/B dugc Bd Tai chinh chuydn cho Cue du tru Lien bang Fed de che bien thanh chi phieu, mot phuong tien thanh toan nhu tien, Oay la quy trinh bien hda mdu nhidm, cd phep than thdng, tang phuong tien thanh toan cho todn he thdng ngan hang va xa hdi vd do dd, lam phat cQng dugc banh trudng tU day. Gia trj cua T/B tuu trung dugc dam bao bdng ngudn tidn thud tuong lai do nhan dan chat chiu, . ddng gdp. T/B dugc nhirng ngudi mua

trong nude va ngodi nude ua chudng vi kha nang bao dam an toan va kha nang sinh ldi cua nd, neu khdng bj lam dung qua mUc. Cung ngae nhien la T/B ciia My dugc chd bidn bang mdt quy trinh ky thuat tinh vi den me hdn khidn ngudi mua nd sdn sdng lao vao cudc cd den dd, khdng phdt hien ra riii ro tU ddu ddn hoac ndu nhan ra thi da qua mudn.

Hoa Ky Id qudc gia gidu cd, thu nhap binh qudn dau ngudi cao ngat ngudng 38.611 USD (sd lieu nam 2007) nhung lai CO dac didm truydn thdng la tich luy it, tidu diing "xa lang", ngudi dan cd the huang thci ngay ca nhUng cua cai vat chat tuong lai ma trudc mat chua tro thanh hien thi/e.

Chfnh phu My cung nhu vay, cd thd tieu xai ngan sach dd so md trudc mat chua cd thu, thdng qua hinh thirc phdt hanh T/B va chi phieu ciia Fed. Chiing ta hay xem ddi ndt vd quy trinh khep kin ciia T/B vd chi phidu ngan hang My dd thay van dd nay rd rang hon.

Khi nhan dugc nhUng an ehi trai phieu T/B vUa in xong, dugc chuydn giao tu Bd tai chinh den. Fed ghi ng khdng gia tri T/B dd vao tai khoan "Security assets"

(tai san chimg khoan). TU day. Fed se phat hanh chi phidu cho Chinh phii vay dd chi tieu. Fed dugc quydn thu tidn lai tU sd tidn cho vay nay theo lai suat cd dinh, hai ben ciing cd Igi, Fed cung hoat ddng kinh

Than trong vol

Trai phieu

Ngan iciio My

TRAI PHIEU NGAN KHO MY (US TREASURY BILLS-T/B) VE BAN CHAT \J\ CONG TRAI QUOC GIA, HAY CON GOI LA TRAI PHIEU CHiNH PHU DO BO TAI CHINH MY PHAT HANH. VIEC PHAT HANH TRAI PHIEU, DUQI flAY GOI TAT LA T / B CUOC THUC HIEN THEO M O T DU LUAT CUA QUOC HOI NUQC NAY, THEO d DO BO TAI CHINH MY THIET KE VA THUC HI^N G^M CO BA THE LOAI: KY HAN MOT NAM CO KY HIEU: T/BILLS; KY HAN HAI flEN MUQI NAM:

T/NOTES; KY HAN flEN BA MUQI NAM: T/BONDS. :

doanh vi Igi nhuan. Vd chi tiet nay, mdt su that dang chii y la Fed dugc ra ddi theo Oao luat "Cue du trU Lien bang" do Ha vidn thdng qua ngdy 22/12/1913 va Thugng vidn ngdy 23/12/1913 nhung vi nhUng ly do td nhj dao luat khdng dat ten Ngdn hang Trung uong,

Khi nhan dugc ehi phieu do Fed chuyen tra, Bd Tai chinh My dai didn Chinh phii Idm thii ttjc ky nhan, dcng dau

"endorsement" sau lung chi phidu va dugc md tai khoan "tidn girl Chfnh phii" tai Fed.

Khi Chinh phii t!"ur hidn chi tidu, hg se tra nhUng chi phidu ndy cho cac chii the nhan tidn (beneficiaries) gdm cac cdng ty va ca mdt sd cd nhan. NhUng ngudi nhan chi phidu se ky girl nd vao tai khoan tidn giri ciia hg tai Ngan hang thuong mai. Odng thdi nay gdp phan tang thanh khoan ngdn hang, ngan hang sir dung vdn dd mo rdng cho vay. Lam phat tidn tin dcing lai biing nd thdm tU ddy,

Cung can chii y la khac vdi quy trinh giao djch T/B giUa Bd Tdi chinh va Fed ndi trdn, khi T/B dugc bdn cho cac ddi tugng nude ngoai (chinh phu, td chire, ca nhan),

ben mua phai tra tidn "tuoi" (USD in cash) phfa My se nhan dugc tidn "tuoi" dd tra tidn lai mdi nam hai ky va hoan tra (redeem) tidn gdc cac T/B dao han, khidn ngudi ta tin rang T/B My khdng bj "sai hen"

(default) ma qudn mat kha nang Bd Tdi chinh My cd thd lay tidn eiia ngudi sau dd tra cho ngudi trudc.

Ngodi ra, T/B My cdn "de" ra mdt loat edng cij phdi sinh khidn sd lugng cdng cii tai chfnh luu thdng trdn thj trudng phlnh Idn do ddi. Trong dd dang chu y nhdt la

"cdng c(j hodn ddi ldi suat" (Interest Rate Swap). Tire Id chd bidn cdng cu lai sudt dai han mudi nam, ba muoi nam chlng han, thanh cdng cii ngan han dd giao djch mua ban "option" ngay trdn thj ta/dng.

Gan day, thang 8/2008, khi hai djnh chd tai chinh Freddie Mac va Fannie Mae sijp dd, ngudi ta da phat hidn ra hai "dai gia"

ndy da sir dung qua nhidu cdng cu

"Interest Rate Svi/ap" dd tidp vdn cho nhidu ngdn hang va cdng ty tai chinh khde cho vay "dudi chuan" (subprime loan) ddi vdi cd phidu vd dia san, dan ddn mat an toan, gay ra con khung hoang tin dung tai

I IRUIJNG Ul CHlNH IlfN If • Si 5(278) • 1/3/2009

NHJN R A p ^ THE G161 hm

My trong nam 2008.

Tu lieu Ijch sir he thdng ngan hang My cho bidt tU 1913 ddn 2001, trong 88 nam, Bd Tdi chfnh My da phat hanh sd lugng T/B vdi gia trj Idn ddn 6.0001^ USD, sau dd tdc dd ndy viit Idn nhu tdn lira. TU 1971 trd vd ta/dc, gid trj ddia dugc neo vdi gia vang 35 USD/oz. Sau ndm 1971, Chfnh phii My da huy bd cam kdt nay.

NhUng nam 1980, Chfnh phii My da diing vQ khf lai suat cao (6% trd Idn) dd ha gijc cae ddi thii tidn te cac nude khac. TU dd, T/B My trdn ddn mgi ngdc ngdeh toan cau vdi sd lugng nam sau nhidu hon ndm ta/dc. Odn nay, gid ddi chidu, My lai quay vd vdi lai sudt thap, lai suat co bdn eua My ngay 16/12/2008 chi cdn tU 0 ddn 0,25%.

TU nam 2001-2006, My da phat hanh va ban ra 3.000 ty USD T/B, nang sd du T/B cdn hidu luc len ddn 8.600 ty USD, binh quan mdi ngay sd lugng T/B tang Idn 2,55 ty USD.

TU thdng 10/2008 tra di Chinh phii My da trinh vd dugc Qudc hdi chdp thudn nhanh chdng cdc kd hoach giai cUu ngdn hang 700 ty, kfch thfch kinh td, hoan thud,

gidm thud 15619 USD rdi cdn mua ng vd lidn tidp bom ti6n vao cac ngan hang ddn ca nghin ty USD vdi phuong tidn chii ydu Id T/B. Theo dd, ehi

trong hai ngdy 10 va 11/12/2008, da cd sd lugng Idn T/B loai 10 ndm va 30 nam vdi gia trj 44 ty USD dugc ban ra thj tardng. Con sd T/B du kidn sd dugc ban tidp trong dau nam 2009 Idn ddn 1.500 ty USD.

Tidn lai phai trd cho T/B cung la ganh nang ciia Chfnh phu My. Tdng sd ng eua Chfnh phii My tfnh ddn cudi nam 2007 da la 44,000 ty USD, don gian chi tfnh lai suat 5%/nam, sd tidn lai phai tra len den 2,200 ty USD, chua kd tidn gdc, Sd ng tang them tfnh ddn cudi nam 2008 sd la 13.000 ty USD. Tdng sd ng luy kd ciia My sau nam 2009 cd thd idn ddn 70,000 ddn 80,000 ty USD.

TU nhUng ndm 80 eiia thd ky 20,

..mot s6 au6e gia dd nliav cam, thirc thi gidi phdp dir phdng cho rieng minh hdng cdch gidm ddn ty le sir dung USD trong thanh todn audetevdtyiedirtrirngodi hei hdng T/B My..

phong trao mua T/B My da trd thanh trdo luu thdi dai d nhidu nude, nhat Id viing Trung Can Odng, Chau A, Nam My... ddn

nay cac nha dau tu edng cQng nhu tu nhdn da nhan bidt dugc nguy co riii ro sd rat nghiem trgng nhung phuong phap, ddi sach thd nao, ngudi ta cdn ban edi chua cd ldi thoat.

Trong bdi cdnh nay, mdt sd qudc gia da nhay edm, thuc thi giai phap du phdng cho ridng minh bdng cdch giam dan ty le sir dtjng USD trong thanh toan qudc td va ty 16 dir triJ ngoai hdi bang T/B My, ddng thdi tang dir trO vang va cac cdng cu khde. Vang trd thanh tai san du tru dd phdng trdnh rui ro, hidu qua thay thd USD. Mdt sd hge gid thd gidi dang cd y tuong dd nghj cai cdch he thdng tai chfnh tidn t6 thd gidi cQng xudt phat tU thuc trang ndi trena

TRAN QU(5C QU^NH

IHI IRUONG l i l CHlNH IlfN If • S<i 5(278) • 1/3/2009