THITRU-O-NG TAI CHINH
Lam ban ve viec
thirc hien lai suat thoa thuan
TS. PHAN VAN TINH
Vien nghien c&u Hd tra Doanh nghiep Phat trien Ben vCrng
Theo Thdng tusd 12/2010/TT-NHNN, ketii ngdy 14/4/2010, td chiic tin dung thuc hien cho vay bdng dong Viet Nam theo ldi sudt thda thudn dp dung ddi vdi tdt cd cdc du dn, phuong dn sdn xudt, kinh doanh, dich vu, ddu tu phdt trien vd ddi sdng. Nhu vdy, viec cho vay theo ldi sudt thda thudn tgi ngdn hdng thuong mgi dd trd thdnh chu truong chung. Tuy nhien, xung quanh vdn de ndy vdn cdn cd nhung y kien khdc nhau ve cdch thiic dieu hdnh cua coquan qudn ly, cimg nhu tgi cdc ngdn hdng thuong mgi.
Ldi sudt thoa thudn cd ldm tdng lqm phdt?
Cau hdi nay dupc ri't nhieu ngudi quan tam bdi le huy dpng vdn v i eho vay, lai suit deu tic ddng den sin xua't va tigu dimg eiia doanh nghiep, d i n eu dhai khia canh: ehi phi sin xui't va tam ly. Nam 2002, Ngan hang N h i nude Viet Nam (NHNN) da sii dung ca ehg' lai suit thda thuin. Tti thdi diem dd de'n nam 2008, lam
p h i t trong nen kinh tg' da ed nhimg bien ddng bat thudng.
Ty le lam phit nam 2001 la 0,8%. Sau khi thue hien lai suit thda thuin, lam phat len mirc 4% trong nam 2002 v i khdng ngimg tang trong nhung nam tiep theo.
Co chg' lai suit thda thuin nam 2002 dupe dua ra thuc chit la tha ndi. Tai di't nudc vira mck thuc hien viec ddi mck ea ehg' quin ly theo thi
LAM PHAT GIAI BOAN 2001-2008 (%)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
- ' -^ • ^ -
2007 2008
truckig CO dinh hudng xa hpi chii nghia v i dang trong qua trinh chuan bi gia nhap WTO nhu Viet Nam thi buac di niy cd the la hoi voi. Kinh nghigm cac nudc cho tha'y, trong co ehe thi truong, cae ehinh sich thudc tam vi mo chi dupe dieu h i n h b i n g cac cong cu va nguyen tic ciia thi teudng khi nen kinh te' la nen kinh tg' thi trudng day dii. Do nhimg yeu td dae thii ciia nen kinh tg' Viet Nam, trong thdi ky n i y su tdn tai ciia ca chg' lai suit thda thuan noi trgn da khie'n nhigu doanh nghiep dieu diing. Hau qua la san xua't bi giam siit, keo theo tinh trang tien dua v i o khu vuc s i n xua't nhung khdng dem lai hieu qua, lim tram trpng them su mat can ddi giiia tien v i hang. Do viy, lam phat lign tue tang trong nhiing nam tie'p theo li mot ta't yg'u.
Nam 2009, Viet Nam lai chuyen sang ca che dieu hinh chinh sach Hen tg (CSTT) bing each sii dung mpt trong nhimg edng eu tien te quan trpng nha't li lai suit co ban
48 THANG s/2010 Tai chinh
(LSCB). N h a vay, lam phat nhanh chdng ducpc khdng che. Tuy nhign, bude sang nhimg thing dau nam 2010, lam phat lai ed xu huckig tang nhanh. Theo cdng bd eiia Tdng cue Thdng kg, chi sd gii hgu dimg thing 1/2010 so vck ciing ky nam 2009 tang 7,62%; so vdi thing 12/2009 da tang 1,36%; chi sd gii tieu diing binh quin 2 thing dau nam 2010 so vck 2 thing d i u nam 2009 tang 8,04 %; binh quan quy 1/2010 so vdi quy 1/2009 tang 8,51%; thing 3/2010 so vck thing 2/2010 tang 0,75%; thing 2/2010 so vdi thing 1/2010 tang 1,96%. Nhu vay, lo ngai ve lam phit cd xu hudng lap lai nhu giai doan hude li ed sa sd (du theo cdng bd ciia Tdng cue Thdng kg thi CPI thing 4/2010 chid miie 0,14%).
Cdn nhieu ye'u td khac ciing lam chiing ta phai lo ngai. Kinh te' the' gick tuy v i n cdn gap nhieu khd khan do du am eiia khiing hoing tii ehinh thg' gick nhung su hdi phue Cling dang bit dau. Theo d u b i o ciia IMF, kinh te' toan cau se chuyen sang tang trudng 3,1% vio nam 2010 sau khi da suy giim 1,1% nam 2009. Kinh tg' thg' gick tang hudng se keo theo su tang gii eac mat hing thudc nguyen lieu ma Viet Nam phai nhap khau, dae biet li gii xang dau. Ben eanh dd, Chinh phii quye't dinh hi 1/5/2010 dieu chinh tien luong tdi thieu tii 650.000 VND Ign 730.000 VND ddi vdi cin bd, edng nhin vign thudc khu vue N h i nuck:... Trong tinh hinh hien tai v i trig'n vpng nen kinh te nhu vay thi chi ein mdt dieu kien chii quan tac dpng khdng thuan Ipi ed the se khig'n Vidt Nam khd ed thg' khdng ehg' lam phat d miie nhu Qudc hdi da de ra.
Nhieu chuyen gia td ra quan ngai ve tinh trang tai lam phat d Viet Nam. Kinh te' trudng vimg Ddng A - Thai binh duong ciia WB, dng Vikram Nehru eho ring, nam 2009 Vi$t Nam da chdng chpi vck suy giam kinh tg' thinh cdng thdng qua cac chucmg trinh kich cau tii
Trong thirc t i i n quan h$ tin dijng, lai s u i t chi la mpt y i u to trong canh tranh
chinh. Kinh tg' tang truckig 5,3% la ngoan mue nhung hien nay Viet Nam dang chiu ap luc Idn ve lam phit.
Xua't phat tir nhimg gi ngu tegn, xem ra ehiing ta ein phii ed nhimg bien phap that than tepng teong viec i p dung lai suit thda thuan de hanh nguy ca lim tang lam phat.
Ldi sudt then thudn vd Idi sudt huy dong
Nhieu y kien eho ring, lai cho vay theo thda thuan se la yeu td lim tang lai suit d i u vio - lai huy ddng v i khi lai suit huy ddng tang Ign se lim cho gia ca leo thang, lam phat tii dign nhanh chdng. O diy ed mpt sd van de ding luu tam Ii:
Thii nhdt, mpt teong nhiing muc hgu i p dung lai suat thda thuin li tiep can quy luat eung cau eiia thi trudng. Tuy nhign, trong digu kien Viet Nam hien nay, nhieu khi gia, dae biet la lai suit cho vay, se khdng ducpc hinh thinh thep quy luat dd, bck le vdi mong mudn duy tri lai sua't huy ddng d miic khdng lam tang lam phat, cung vdn cho thi trudng tin dung se bi ban ehe.
Chinh yg'u td niy tic dpng den viec tang lai suit cho vay tai cac ngin hang thuong mai vi eau vupt eung.
Thii hai, viec ky vpng tim mpt lai suit hcpp ly teen ca sd cung- cau vdn
va thiic day cho vay gdp phin tang truckig kinh te' cimg khdng phai li van de dg dang. Ly do li nen kinh te' ciia ehiing ta li "nen kinh te tin dung", teong ca cau vdn boat dpng eiia doanh nghiep thi vdn vay chig'm ty tepng khdng nhd v i ddng vai trd quan trpng trong sin xua't kinh doanh. Khi boat ddng kinh doanh ed dieu kien phat teien, eung vdn tren thi trudng thieu, lai suit tang thi doanh nghiep eiing v i n phii vay vdn. Nhu viy, lai suit cho vay theo thda thuan cling khd be khdng che' d miie hcpp ly theo ky vpng hong mue hgu can bing kinh tg' vi md m i tepng tam la kiem ehg' lam phit, dam bio tang trudng theo tinh thin chi dao ciia Thii tuckig Chinh phii. Thuc te' n i y da dign ra trong nam 2008, khi lai sua't huy dpng tren thi trudng ducpc day Ign thi lai suit eho vay d mdt sd ngan hing da vucpt ngudng 20%. Tuy viy, du ncp cho vay teong nen kinh tg' khdng giam.
Thii ba, qua mdt thdi gian ngin i p dung lai sui't thda thuin, dieu khdng binh thudng da phit sinh la lai suit nhieu ngin hang cho vay da vucpt xa tdc dp lam phat teong nen kinh te, lim cho lai suat danh nghla
\'i lai suit thue ed miie chgnh Igch kha Icki.
Thii tu, nhieu chuyen gia eho
Til iNlinh THANG s/2010 49
TH| TRirOTNR TAI rHJNH ring, khdng ngn lo ling ve viee ngan hang thuong mai se day lai suit len eao v i chay dua huy ddng vdn, day lai suat hen giii len. Theo hp, trong dieu kien canh teanh, ne'u ngin hing nao eho vay lai suit eao thi se mat khach hing. Tuy nhien, teong thuc hgn ciia nen kinh te Viet Nam, va'n de khdng don gian nhu viy. Thi trudng tien te nam 2008 li mpt minh chiing. Lai suit d nhieu ngan h i n g da vucpt 20% nhung su dich chuyen ludng vdn nhu suy luan teen da khong xay ra. Tham ehi trong mdt thdi gian n g i n (quy 1/2010), lai suit huy dpng bi khdng ehg' "tran" nhung lai suit cho vay thdng thuckig da Ign den 17-18%, ed ngin hang cho vay xap xi d miic 20%/nam. Trong thue hgn quan he tin dung, lai suit chi la mpt yg'u td trong canh tranh. Neu khdng cd nhimg nghien cuu ky dg' ed cich nhin phii hcpp vdi cupc sdng n h i m xiy dung eic ea che' quan ly hiiu hieu, e ring "tu do hda" lai suit se xay ra hien tucpng ddc quyen va khi dd lai suit thda thuan se mat vai trd va ban chat "thda thuan".
Co h a y k h o n g cuoc d u a hq Idi sudt?
Hien tai, eic ngan h i n g thuong mai (NHTM) da b i t d i u ha lai suit cho vay. Ddng thii n i y xiy ra sau khi cd cupc hpp giiia cie NHTM vdi NHNN, qua do cac NHTM Ion da thdng nha't keo lai suit cho vay xudng. Nhieu ngucM eho ring, tck day cupc dua ha lai suit se dign ra.
Ve dign big'n nay cd nhieu eau hdi dat ra:
- Tai sao eac NHTM lai nhanh chdng ha lai suit cho vay? Neu khdng cd ca sd kinh tg' v i khoa hpe lieu cac NHTM cd thg' duy tei liu dai
mue lai suit tha'p khong? Chiing tdi eho ring, neu eic NHTM ha lai suit teen ca sd het kiem chi phi theo chi dap ciia NHNN la dieu khdng the', bck thdi gian qua ngin dg' viec giam ehi phi teong n g i n h i n g cd hieu ling. Ne'u NHTM chi thuc hien cit giam lai suat cho vay ngoii y mudn thi se khdng co su ben viing, vi viy ve liu dai duy tei lai sua't d miic thap khdng phai li dieu don gian.
- Lai sua't thda thuan m i NHNN cho i p dung teong thoi gian qua Ii chii trucjng ehung ddi vck he thdng ngan hing. Tuy nhien, sau mdt thoi gian ngin thuc hien, lai sui't eho vay d mpt sd ngan hing da len den miic xi'p XI 20%. Cac NHTM Ion cimg thdng nhi't keo lai suit xudng.
Lieu viec lim n i y cd diing vck tinh than binh ding va canh tranh linh manh giua cic ehii the khac nhau trong he thdng v i quyen Icpi cic ngan h i n g nhd bi anh hudng khdng? Chiing tdi cho ring, eic ngan hang nhd se gap khd khan teong huy dpng va cho vay. Day l i ye'u td khong an toin, i n h hudng den an ninh ddi vdi he thdng.
- Cd dai dien ngan h i n g cho ring, lai suit dau vao binh quin d cac ngan hang chi tir 7-9%/nam ngn viee ha lai suit eho vay se khdng inh hudng den Ick nhuan ciia ngin hing. Ve van de niy, NHNN can xem xet danh gia lai miic ehi phi dau vio eiia cac NHTM dg' cd dinh huckig trong dieu hanh chinh sich tien te.
- Cd y kig'n cho ring, trong hudng hcpp vdn ciia thi teudng khan hiem, NHNN se cung ling hen eho thi trudng thdng qua cic cdng cu ciia chinh sich hgn te. Lieu dieu n i y cd di ngupe lai vck muc tigu kiem che' lam p h i t khdng? Can luu y
ring, cdng eu eiia CSTT khdng tic dung tire thdi ma ed dp ted nhat dinh trong van hinh, trong khi dd gia ca thi teudng cd the khong ed
"phiit, giay" chim trd. Trong teudng hcpp do chic chin dieu hinh CSTT se gap khd khan trong muc heu ngin ban.
T h a y cho Idi k e t
Thuc hgn dieu hinh CSTT ciia Viet Nam teong thiM gian qua eho thiy, eac cong cu hen te - dae biet la lai suit v i ty gii hdi doai la nhiing cong eu hen te cue ky nhay cam. Viec su dung cae cdng cu nay - dae biet vck cdng cu lai suit can phai dat hong dieu kien kinh te - xa hpi cu the ciia Viet Nam. Dieu m i mpi thinh vien teong xa hpi Viet Nam dae biet quan tam hien nay li Ueu siie mua eiia VND cd ducpc giii vung hay khdng, cd nghia l i ddng Viet Nam Ueu cd hep tue mat gia hay khong, lam phit lieu cd tii dign nhu thdi 2002 - "tu do hda" lai suit hay khdng?
Rd ring, nhiing gi ma NHNN Viet Nam da thue hien trong dieu h i n h CSTT thdi gian qua, dae biet viec sii dung LSCB teong nam 2009 den nay li rat tdt, da kim ehe v i day liii lam phat tii 19,89% trong nam 2008 xudng cdn 6,8% trong nam 2009. Vi vay, can cd nhiing bien p h i p cd ea sd khoa hpe v i kinh te' teong viec ap dung chg' dp lai suit thda thuin, de gdp phan tich cue vio viec thue hien thinh edng muc tieu kiem che' lam phat nam 2010 ma Chinh phii da de ra. Muc hgu dn dinh kinh te' vi md nam 2010 can dugc uu tien. Bgn canh do, viee bao ve an ninh eho he thdng ngan hing teong teung v i dai ban l i nhiem vu khdng the khdng tinh de'n trong viec ap dung lai suit thda thuan. $
