NGHIEN cufu CAC YEU TO ANH Hl/dNGDEN QUYET OjNH LI/A CHON TRl/dfNG DAI HOC CUA HOC SINH TRUNG HOC PHO T H O N G KHU Vl/C MIEN BAC
FACTORS AFFECTING UNIVERSITY ENROLLMENT OF HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS IN THE NORTH OF VIETNAM
Vu O'lnh Khoa, Nguyen Minh Phiftfng
Tom tit
Bai bao trinh b^y nghien ciiu cac yeu to inh hifdng den quyet dinh lifa chpn trudng dai hoc (fiH) cila hoc smh (HS) trung hoc phd thdng khu vifa mien B3c, ap dung cat phUdng phip nghien ciJli dinh tinh va djnh lifOng.Ketqu^ cho thay, quyet djnh lu^ chpn truiingDH ciia HS phu thuoc vao4nhan to gdm: (f^/Vi5/i/c Clin triidng BH 3ua thong tm ve trudng den v^ HS; (ii) Ca hoi viec lam vabgc tiip trong tuang lai khi ra trUdng;
(ill) Mng tin tiivan; (iv) TylechoL Til dd, l^c gii da de xuat mot so khuyen nghi giup cac tnfdng OH nam bat dutJc mong muon, nguyen vong cua HS trung hpc phd thdng de cd t h i xay dimg chien liroc, ke hoach tuyen sinh phii hop, dat hieu qui.
Tdkhda: hpc sinh; dai hoc; lu'a chon tru'dng dai hoc
Abstract
The paper examines foctors affecting university enrollment of high school students in the North of Vietnam conducting qualitative and quantitative methods. Hie results show that the students enroll in uiversities basing on 4 factors namely (i) the effort of the universities to bring the student their own information, (ii) opportunities for jobs and further study after graduating, (Hi) consulting infomiatton, (iv) enrollment number. Accordingly, recommendations are proposed to help universities be able to satisfy the high school students'needs by building an appropriate and effective enrollment strategy and plan, Key words: pupils; universities; selection universities
IliS Vu Dinh Khoa, ThS. Nguyen Mmh Phuong Khoa Quan ly kinh doanh, Tnrcmg BH C6ng nghiep H^ Nai Email; ktioa [email protected]
1.GI(3lTHieU
Laa chon tru'dng OH noi rieng va Ilia chon nghe nghiep noi chung la mot quyet djnh quan trong c6 tinh buciic ngoat cua HS trung hoc pho thong. Co nhieu yeu to tac dong den viec ra quyet dinh lua chpn nay va mCfc do tac dong cua cac yeu to cung khac nhau. BSng viec SLf dyng cac phaong phap nghien cau dinh tinh va dinh luong, tac gia da
Ng^ynhSnb^J: 03/5/2014 Ngiydijp nhan dang: 05/6/2014
kiem thi!f 7 gia thuyet nghien cu'u ve cac nhom yeu to tac dong den quyet dinh laa chpn tradng DH cua HS trung hpc pho thong khu viic mien Bac. Ket qua nghien cau cho thay, co 4 tren 7 nhom yeu td tac dong den viec ra quyet djnh laa chon trUdng OH cilia HS.
2. DUf LliU VA PHl/ONG P H A P NGHIEN CQU
2.1. Ly thuyet ve sU lUa chon va
yeu to anh hudng den sU lua chpn trudng DH
Ly thuyet ve sU lUa chon hpp ly dapc biet den nhu la ly thuyet laa chon hoac ly thuyet hanh dong. Ly thuyet laa chon daa vao tien de cho ring con ngudi luon hanh dong mot each c6 chCi dich, CO suy nghi de liia chon v^ sif dung nguon liic mot each duy 1^ nhSm dat dapc ket quci toi da vdi chi phi tdi thieu.Theo Homans"Khi lifa chpn trong so cac hanh dong co the cd, ca nhan se chpn each ma hp cho la tich cua xac xuat thanh cong cua hanh dong do vdi gia trj ma phan thudng cua hanh dong do la Idn nhat. Theo John Elster"Khld6i dien vdi mot so each hanh dong, moi ngadi thadng lam cai ima hp tin la c6 kha nang dat dUdc ket qu5 cuoi ciing tot nhat". Thuyet liia chpn ddi hdi phSi phan tich hanh ddng liia chpn cua ci nhan trong moi lien he vdi he thong xa hpi cua nd, bao gom Cci cac ca nhan khac vdi nhiJng nhu cau va sii mong dpi cua hp, k h i nang liia chpn va s3n pham dau ra cua tCfng liia chpn ciing cac dac diem khac. Tinh "hpp ly", diioc giai thich la muon si]f dung nhieu hon mot hang hoa tot cdn dem lai Idi ich.
Md hinh tong quat ve liia chpn trudng DH cua HS da dapc D.W.
Chapman xay dung cho thay, c6 hai
8 4 TapdiiKHOAHOC&CONGNGHE S o 2 5 . 2 0 1 4
ECONOMICS-SOCIETYl
Hinh 1,Md hinh nghien cu'u Bang 1. Cau true phieu khao sat va thang do
Darh tieng c ua iRrtmg BH
Ctoneih „n„„,l„
Anh hiKrng boi cdc ca nhan khac
'"°""""i"
^.ajeaiimca.stt Noi dung So bien quan
sat Thang do
Phan 1:Tinh hinh chon tnrcmg OH, CO 1
2
Thdng tin doi tuong khao sat DifdinhsaulthiTNTHPT
1 1
HStUdien Likert 5 miic do Phan 2: Yeu to anh hudng den viec chon trifcmg DH
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Nd li/c cua tri/ang OH dUa thdng tin den H5 Bac diem cua tru'dngflH
Chat luong giang day Sac diem ciia ban than
Cac ca nhan anh hudng den chon trudng DH Kha nang dap Ung monq ddi Kha nang trung tuyen vao trudng
5 6 4 2 6 4 2
LikertSmUcdo Likert 5 mUc do Likert 5 mUc do Likert 5 mUc do Lil(ert 5 mUc do LikertSmUcdo LikertSmUcdo Phan 3: Dac diem HS va gia dinh
nhdm y^u t o anh hUdng d e n quyet dinh lUa chon t r a d n g D H cua HS d d la: fiAgt Id, dac diem cua gia dinh va ca nhan HS; Hai Id, m o t so yeu t o ben ngoai cd ^nh h a d n g cu t h e n h a eac ea nhan cd anh hadng, cac dac d i e m co dmh ci!ia t r a d n g OH va no liic giao tiep cua trudng OH vdi HS. Phat trien nghien cifu cua D.W. Chapman, Cabera va La Nasa da nhan m a n h , nhQng m o n g dpi v^ edng viec t r o n g tuang lai cua HS la mot n h o m yeu t o quan t r p n g tac d o n g den quyet dinh iiia chpn t r a d n g DH va da d a a ra m d hinh ba giai doan ve Ilia chpn t r a d n g D H cua HS. TCf ket qua nghien cifu, Cabera va La Nasa nhan manh rang nhOng m o n g dpi v^ cong viec t r o n g t a o n g lai ciing la m o t n h d m yeu t o quan t r o n g tac d o n g den quyet dinh laa chon t r a d n g D H cua HS.
Tren c o sd t o n g h o p cac ly thuyet tren, tac gia da xay d i i n g m d hinh nghien cufu (hinh 1).
2.2. G\& thuyet nghien cufu Tae gia da xay diing cac gia thuyet nghien eCfu, gom: Gid thuyet 1: No liic giao tiep, truyen tai thong tin vdi HS thong qua quang ba tren cae phaong tien thdng tin dai chung (td chCre sii kien, ta van hudng nghiep) ciia nha trudng se tac ddng den quyet dinh laa chpn tradng DH; Gid thuyet 2: Cac dac diem cua tradng DH nha nganh dao tao, Cd sd vat chat, ky tuc xa, vi tri dja ly.,. cang tot thi xu hudng chpn trudng cang cao; Gid thuyet 3: Danh tieng eua trudng DH, dpi ngu giang vien co trinh dp cao, nhiet tinh se hap dan HS lUa chpn lam noi hpc tap d trinh dp DH;
Gid thuyet 4 HS cd xu hudng liia chpn
tradng DH diia tren co sd taong thich vdi dac diem eua ca nhan; Gid thuyet5:
Quyet dinh laa chpn trUdng OH cua HS bianh hadng bdi caeca nhan khac nha y kien ta van, dmh hUdng cua thay/cd, bo me, anh chj em, ban be, chuyen gia ta van; G;dr/iuyet6;Cd hpi viec lam sau khi tot nghiep hay kha nang dap ang mong dpi cung la mot yeu td quan trong tac ddng den quyet djnh Ilia chpn tradng DH ciia HS; Gid thuyet 7:
Phan dong HS ed hpc lac trung binh kha, t;^ le HS thac sii gidi va xuat sac thap, vi vay, trudng OH cd diem trung tuyen cang thap, cd hpi trung tuyen cang cao se cd nhieu HS liia chon.
2.3. Phu'cmg phap nghien cliru Tac gia da sd dung ket hop hai phaong phap nghien cau dinh tinh va nghien cau dinh laong. Nghien cufu dinh tinh, gom: tong hdp cd sd ly luan, xay dang mo hinh nghien eau, phdng van sau, hoan chinh lai md hinh, thang do va kham pha nhQng van de mdi. Tir dd, bang cau hdi dupc thiet ke, khao sat thCt tren quy md mau la 100 HS, sau dd hieu chinh lan cudi trade khi tien hanh nghien cQu dinh lapng trong pham vi rdng rai. Nghien cifu djnh lapng vdi ky thuat thu thap dd lieu thdng qua dieu tra khao sat bang bang hdi. Dii: lieu thu thap dapc diing de danh gia thang do, kiem dinh md hinh, gia thuyet nghien etfu. Ndi dung phieu khao sat gom ba phan chinh {bang 1).
2.4. Mau nghien cuXi
Quy md mau nghien ciJu dUpc thiic hien theo phuong phap chpn mau phi xac suat, cy the la chon mau theo phaong phap phan doan. Theo phaong phap nay, tac gia da tap trung khao sat HS phd thong tai 20 tinh Mien Bac. Kich thadc mau, theo J.F Hair va cong sa, 1998, ddi vdi phan tich nhan td kham pha EFA thi cd mau phai tdi thieu gap nam lan cac menh de trong thang do. Trong nghien cQu nay, cd tat ca 29 bien quan sat diing trong phan
5625.2014•TapdiJKHOAHOC&CQktt^HE 8 5
Bang 2. Co cau phieu khao sat theo cac tinh/thanh pho
sn
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
T[nh/Thanh pho Ha NDI HaTay(cu) Ha Nam Hal Di/ong Hung Yen BacNinh BScGiajig Laf Chau Lang Son Thai Nguyen Yen Bai
So phieu 107 77 10 36 31 19 38 19 13 52 7
Tyle(%) 16.0 11.5 1.5 5.4 46 2.8 S.7 2.8 1.9 7.8 1.0
Stt 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Tinh/Thanh pho 50nU Phu Tho Vinh Phuc Quang Ninh Lao Cai Hal Phong Nam Binh Ninh Binh Thai Binh Tong
So phieu 20 25 18 37 23 35 66 16 18 667
Tyle
30 3.7 2.7 5.5 3.4 52 99 24 27 100.1)
Bang 3. Gia tn trung binh cua mot so bien do lUdng
Ma
VL.6.1 DD.2.3 CL.3.2 DD.2 2 BT.4.2 DD.24 NT.5 6 NT.5.3 NT5.2 NT.5.1 NT.5.4
Bien nghien c i ^
Co hoi kiem tfi/oc viec lam sau khi tot nghiep Hoc phi phi hop vdi dieu kien kinh te gia ^inh Boi ngu giang vien tot (trinh flo chuyen mon cao, nhiet huyet...]
Co sd vat chat phuc vu tot cho sinh vien theo hoc Tru6ng co nganh nghe dao tao phu hop vOi ban than Che dp hoc bong va cac chinh sach tru dai cho Sinh vien theo hoc
Lbi khuyen cua ngudi da hoac dang hoc tap tai trudng do gidi thieu
Do ldl khuyen cua thay/co tiong trudng PTTH Doldikhuyencuaanhchitronggiadlnh Do cha me dmh hudng nganh hoc trudng hoc Y kien cua ban be
Gia tri trung binh Trung
binh 4,40 4,37 4.32 4,31 4,27 4,26 3,61 3,60 3,48 3,34 3,05
Phuong sai
0,031 0,032 0,033 0,032 0,030 0,031 0,036 0,035 0,039 0,039 0,029
Do iech chuan
0,807 0,819 0,851 0,838 0,783 0,789 0,924 0,910 1,014 1,004 0,747 t i c h n h a n t d , d o v a y c d m a u t d i t h i e u
c a n d a t la: 2 9 * 5 ^ 145 q u a n sat. D d i v d i h o i q u y d a b i e n t h i c d m a u t o i t h i e u c a n d a t la: 5 0 + 8 * m ( t r o n g d o m la sd b i e n d d c lap). T r o n g n g h i e n cufu n a y c o 7 b i e n d p c lap, vi v a y e d m a u t d i t h i e u c a n d a t la: 5 0 + 8 * 7 = 106 q u a n sat.
T d n g h p p hai p h U O n g p h a p x a c d i n h c d m a u t r e n , k i c h t h a d e m a u t o i t h i e u d a o c y e u c a u la: 1 0 6 q u a n sat. Tac g i a t i e n h a n h k h a o sat 6 6 7 q u a n sat.
3.K^TQUANGHl£NCCru 3.1. Md tci m i u nghien c i ^ Qua trinh dieu tra daoc thiic hien trong thang 3 va 4 nam 2013, doi taong tien hanh kh^o sat la 721 HS phd thdng
idp 12 chuan bi tham gia ky thi tuyen sinh DH, CD nam 2013. Sau khi nhap dQ lieu va xuf ly sd bd bang phan mem SPSS, cdn 667 phieu hpp le dUpc dUa vao phan tich. Cd cau phieu khao sat daoc md ta trong bang 2.
3.2. Ket qua phan tich tfnh dai dien ciJa mau nghien cihi
Ket qua dieu tra eho thay, HS cd hpc liic Kha va Gidi tham gia tra Idi phdng van chiem 84% {hinh 2), vi day la nhCfng HS ed mong muon tiep tuc theo hpc d cap trinh dp cao hon, la doi tUdng cd nhieu kha nang se tham gia ky thi tuyen sinh DH, CD. Ket qua tra Idi phdng van cung cho thay, nhieu HS the
hien sii quyet tam cua minh la nam nay khdng do se tiep tuc on them de nam sau thi lai. VI vay, mau nghien cau dSm bao tinh dai dien.
Yeu Tnmg binh
Kha
Hinh 2, Hoc life ci!ia HS Idp 12 tham gia tri Itii khaosat
3.3. Vai tro cua cac yeu to dnh hudng den quyet ftjnh lira chon tru'dng
Gia trj trung binh cOa cac bien nghien ciJru (bang 3) cho th^y, HS trung hpc phd thdng mien B§e danh gia cao, au tien liia chon trudng DH ma sau khi tot nghiep ed nhieu cO hdi viec lam;
hpc phi phu hpp vdi dieu kien hoSn canh gia dinh, dpi ngu gi^ng vien c6 trinh dp chuyen mdn cao, cd sd vlt chat phuc vu tdt eho sinh vien theo hoc. Cae bien do ladng nha Idi khuyen cua anh chj trong gia d'inh; cha me dinh hudng nganh hpc, tradng hpc; y ki^n cua ban be cd gia trj trung binh thap han cho thay, cac yeu to nay khdng gay anh hadng nhieu den quyet djnh chon tradng cua HS mien Bk.
3.4. Phan tich nhan to kham phi EFA
Bang 4. KMO va Bartlett'sTest Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy
Bartlett'sTest of Spheiidty
Approx Chi-Square df Sig
.«70 5610, 051
m
.000 Ket qua phan tich nhan to cho thtly, gia tri cua trj sd KMO = 0,870 (0,5 5 KfvlO <1}; gia trj kiem dinh gi^ thuyft HO "cac bien khdng tuong quan vdi nhau" Bartlett's Test = 406 (<1 %} (bing 4), vi vay da bac bd gi^ thuyet va dfing
16 TapdiiKHOAHOC&CONGNGHE So 2 5 . 2 0 1 4
ECONOMICS-SOCIETYl
Bang 5. Ma tran xoay nhan to
OD.2 5 DD.2.4 OD.2.3 00.2.6 CL.3.3 DD.2.2 CL.3.2 NL.1.3 NL.1.4 NL.1.2 NL.1.5 NL.1.1 VL6.3 Vl.6.2 VL.6.1 Vl.64 BT.4.1 DD.2.1 BT.4.2 TT.7 2 CL.3.1 NT.5.2 NT.S.1 NT.S.i NT.5.4 NT.56 CL.3.4 NT.5.5 TT.7.1
rnm|.nn.iit 1
.709 .681 .589 518 .517 .483 .463
2
.783 .760 .625 .624 .499
3
778 .769 .541 .502
4
.647 .590 .579 .547 .422
S
.798 .759 .686 .658
6
.652 .590 521
7
.756 Bang 6. Nhom nhan to va bien quan sat
Nhom FI
F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7
Ten Bac diem ve tn/cmg DH
No luc di(a thong tin ve trutJng den vdi H5 cua trudng DH Ctr hoi viec lam va hoc tiep trong tuong lai khi la tnjong Suphii hop nganh hoc vdi ban than HS Cac ca nhan anh hl/cinq den viec chon trudng BH cua HS Thdnotiniuvan
Ty le choi cua tiddng BH qua cac nam gan day
Bien DD.2.5; DD.2 4; DD 2.3, DD.2.6;
CL3.3;DD2.2; CL.3.2 NL.1 3; NL.1.4; NL1.2; NL.1.5;
NL.1.1
VL.6.3; VL.6.2; VL.61;VL.6.4 BI.4.1;DD.21;BT.4.2;n7 2;
CL.3.1
NT.5 2;NT5.1,NT5 3;NT5.4 NT.5.6; NT.5.5; CL.3.4 TT.7.1
nghla vdi viec cac bien cd taong quan xep thanh 7 nhom nhan to (bang 6).
vdi nhau, viec ap dung phan tich nhan 3.5.0anhgiadotincaycijathangcro to la thich ^'''JO. Ket qu^ tinh toan he sd Cronbach's
Can cu ' :t qua ma tran xoay nhan Alpha (bang 7) cho thay, 4 trong sd 6 to (bang f 29 bien quan sat dapc sip bien cd he sd Cronbach's Alpha > 0,6
gom: Ddc diem cua trUdng BH (0.787);
No lue cija trudng DH dua thdng tin ve trudng den vdiHS (0.745); Co hdi viec lam vd hoc tiep trong tuong lai khi ra trUdng (0,744) va Cdc cd nhdn anh hUdng den viec chon trUdng DH cua HS (0.725). Nha vay, 5 bien nay la phii hop va dang tin cay. Cac bien "Kha nang triing tuyen vao trudng" va "Dac diem ban than" cd he so Cronbach's Alpha < 0,5 do vay, khong phii hop va khdng dang tin cay, tac gia da loai tra khi phan tich nhan to.
3.6. Phan tich phUomg sai Kiem dinh sii khac biet ve ket qua danh gia cua cac nhdm doi tapng khao sat khac nhau theo dac diem ca nhan cho cac nhan td (Fl; F2; F3; F4; F5; F6;
F7) cd mac y nghla Sig < 0,5 (bang 8).
De xac djnh sU khac biet trong danh gia tam quan trpng cua cac yeu to giCfa cac nhdm theo dac diem ea nhan, tac gia da tien hanh kiem djnh bang phaong phap kiem djnh Dunnett sau khi thiic hien phan tich Anova, ket qua phan tich nhUsau:
• Su khac biet trong danh gia tam quan trong doi vdi yeu to "Dac diem cua trucfng DH" giura cac nhom HS theo gioi tfnh
Cd sii khac biet ed y nghia thdng ke trong danh gia tam quan trong cua yeu td"Dac diem eCia trUdng DH"den quyet dinh chpn tradng giQa HS nam va HS nQ. HS na quan tam den dac diem trudng BH hon (M: 4,25) HS nam {fA:
4,12) va sii danh gia nay cung rat ddng deu d HS nQ (SD: 0,028) (bang 9).
• Sir khac biet trong danh gia tam quan trpng doi vori yeu to "Cct hoi viec lam sau khi tot nghiep DH"giCra cac nhom HS theo hpc lUc
Co sa khac biet cd y nghTa thong ke trong danh gia tam quan trong eua yeu td "Co hdi viec lam sau khi ra tradng"
giQa cac nhdm HS theo hpc luc. HS cd hpc lac Yeu it quan tam den Co hoi viec lam sau khi ra trudng so vdi cae nhom ddi tuong khac (M: 3,5 so vdi 4,24 cua nhdm HS cd hoc lac Kha). sa danh gia
5 6 2 5 . 2 0 1 4 . Tap
BSng 7 Ket qua danh gia do tin tay cua thang do cac khai niem nghien cilu Scale Mean if
Item Deleted
Scale Variance i f Item Deleted
Corrected Item- Total Correlation
Cronbach's Alpha if Item Deleted 1. Bac aiem cua trirdnq BH:HesoCronbacll'sAiplia = 0.787
0D2.5 0D2.4 DD2.3 DD26 DD2.2 CL3.3 CL3.2
25.35 25.16 25 04 25.34 2510 25.40 25.10
11.563 10.840 11.651 11.081 11.445 11.961 11.536
.498 .634 .458 .502 .527 436 .543
.762 .736 .770 .763 .757 .774 .754 2. No liic ciia tutting BH difa thong tin ve tri/dnq den vdi HS: He so Cronbacii's Alpha = 0,745
NL1.3 NL1.4 NL1.2 NL1.5 NLl.l
15.984 16094 15.823 15.892 15.757
6.091 6185 7.062 6.523 7.088
629 .561 .488 .469 .410
.654 .680 .709 .717 .735 3. Co hoi viec iam va hoc tiep trong tirong iai ithi ra trirdng: He so Cronbach's Alpha = 0.744
VL6.1 VL6.2 VL6.3
»L6.4 12.36 12.60 12.65 12.67
4.921 3.866 3.841 4.095
412 654 .618 .481
.747 .616 .636 .721 4. Sif phii hdp nganh hoc vdi ban than HS: He so Cronbach's Alpha = 0.643
8T4.1 DD2.1 BT4.2 TT7.2 CL31
16.72 16.74 16.72 16.87 16.89
4.628 4.807 4.507 4.853 4 846
.451 .374 .465 .361 .332
.564 .600 .555 606 .621 5. Cac ca nhan i n h hudng den viec chon trirdng BH cua HS: He so Cronbach's Alpha = 0.725
NTS 2 NT51 NT5.3 NI5.4
10.00 10.13 9.87 10.42
5.266 4.939 5.655 5.376
.596 .501 .499 .477
.619 .677 .674 .686 6. Thong tin tir van: He so Cronbach's Alpha = 0.581
NT5.6 NTS.S CL3.4
7.55 7.51 7.24
2.609 2.328 3.056
.413 .459
.m
.444 .366 .597
Bang 8 He so Sig. khi so sanh stf khac biet ve ket qua danh gia ciia cac nhom dm tifOng khao sat khac nhau
Nhan to
Dacdilmcu3tnfcfnqBH{Fi)
No luc cua trirdnq DH dua tliong tin ve trirOng den vdi HS (F]) Co hoi viec lam va hoc tiep trong tdonq lai khi B tnrcmg (Fj) Sir phii hop nganh hoc veil ban than HS [h]
Cac ca nhan anh hifdng den viec chon trddng DH cua HS (F5) Thong nn tif van (Ft)
Tylechoi(F?)
Miilcy nghia (Siq.) Gidi tinli
0,003 0,110 0,683 0,420 0,580 0,154 0,255
Hoclirc 0,054 0,265 0,021 0,000 0,000 0,290 0,103
Noi sinli 0,000 0,780 0,000 0,019 0,000 0,051 0,625
nay cung khdng dong deu cCia nhom ddi taong HS yeu the hien d dd lenh chuan cao hon (SD; 0,866) (b^ng 10).
• Stf khac biet trong danh gi^ tim quan trong doi v6i yeu to "Sif phii hap nganh hoc vdi bdn than HS"gitia cac nhom HS theo hoc lUc
HS cd hpc luc Gidi it quan tam den sU phu hcjp nganh hpc vdi b^n than (M:
4,08) (bang 11), bdi vi HS Gidi thudng ta tin vao kha nang lua chpn va khei nang thich dng nganh dao tao ma ho da laa chpn.
• Suf khac biet trong dinh gia tim quan trpng doi v6i yeu to"Ci nhdn i n h hudng den viec chon trUdng QH ciia HS" giufa cac nhom HS theo hoc luc
HS cd hoe lac Gidi rat eoi trpng 161 khuyen cua ngadi than khi laa chon trudng (M: 3,60) (bang 12) hdn so vdi HS cd hoc luc Kha va Trung binh, vi vay, hpcan nhac trudc khi ra quyet dinh li/a chon trudng da thi daa theo yeu td ntiy.
• Su khac biet trong danh gil tam quan trong doi vdi cac yeu to "Die diem cOa trUcfng DH; Ccf hoi viec lam;
Su phu htfp nganh hoc vdi bdn than HS; Ca nhan i n h hUdng den viec chon trudng DH cua HS" gitira cic nhom HS theo noi sinh
Cd sU khac biet giaa HS 6 ndng thdn va HS d thanh p h d HS d nong thdn co su quan tam ve cae yeu td "Dac di^m tradng DH, cd hpi cd viee lam khi ra tradng, sU phii hop nganh hpc" nhieu hon so vdi HS d thanh phd. HS d thSnh phd chiu anh hudng cua yeu td "Cac ci nhan anh hudng den viec chpn triicfng DH cua HS"nhieu hon so vdi HS d nong thdn (bang 13,14).
3.7. Hoi quy da bien Ket qu^ phan tich cho thay, F = 47,586 va p(F) = 0,00 < 0,05 (bSng 15) vl vay, cd the khlng djnh ton tai moi quan he giCra cae bien nghien cufu. PhSn tich hdi quy da bien cho thay, quyet dinh chpn trudng DH cua HS phu thupc vao 4 nhan td (b^ng 15, 16). Khi dd tim vi
8 8 TapdiiKHOAHOC&CONGNGHE. S o 2 5 . 2 0 1 4
ECONOMICS-SOCIETYl
Bang 9, Ket qua phan tich Anova theo gidi tinh doi vdi yeu to "Bac diem cua tru'dng BH"
m
"Im fong cong
N 400 267 m
Trung binli 4,25 4,12 4,21)
Do ledi cliuan .558 .540
Phurnig sai .02) .033 .5S4| .021
Khoang tin cay 95% for Mean Gidi han iltrdi
4,20 4,05 4,16
GiOi Iran tren 4,31 4,19 4,24
2 2 2
5 5 S
Bang 10. Ket qua phan tich Anova theo hoc life doi vdii yeu to "Co hoi viec lam sau khi tot nghiep OH"
jlol (hi rnjng binii feu rong cong
N 142 41' 103
3 667
Trung binli 4,09 4,24 4,15 3,50 4,19
fioledidiuan .684 .632 .648 1.500 .654
Phirongsai 05(
.031 .06^
.861 .025
Khoiing tin cay 95% for Mean Gidi han rlir^
3,9!
4,11 4,02 -0,23 4 , 1 '
Gidi Iran tren 4,20 4,30 4,27 7,23 4,24
Min 2 2 2 2 2
Max 5 5 5 5 S
B3ng 1 1 . Ket qua phan tich Anova t h e o hoc lire d m vdi yeu t d " S i i p h i i hap nganh hoc vdi ban than HS"
3161 (ha [mng binh (eu long cong
N 147 41' 103
3 667
Trung binh 4,08 4,26 4,09 4,40 4,20
96 lech chuan .614 .485 .471 .529 .521
'hUfflig sa .051 .02' .046 .306 .020
(hoang tin cay 95% for Mean Gidi han d i / ^
3,98 4,22 4,00 3,09 4,16
Gidi han tren 4,18 4,31 4,18 5,71 4,24
2 2 3 4 2
5 5 5 5 5 B^ng 12. Ket qua phan tich Anova theo hpc lire doi vdi yeu to "Ca nhan anh hudng den viec chon tru'dng DHciiaHS"
jloi (ha Trung binh (e'«
long cong N 147 414 103 3 667
Trung binh 3,60 3,31 3,24 4,08 3,37
fig lech chuan .740 .711 .751 804 .735
Phuong sai .061 .035 .07' .464 .02!
Khoang tin cay 95% for Mean Gidi han dudi
3,47 3,24 3,10 2,09 3,31
Gidi han tren 3,72 3,38 3,39 6,08 3,42
1 1 1 4 1
Max
pham cac gia thiet trong hdi quy tuyen tinh thi hau het cac gia dinh deu thda man, rieng gia dinh phaong sai cua sai sd l<hdng ddi trong md hinh hdi quy bj vi pham, vi vay tac gia da phan tich ca 7 nhan t d cd dUpc t a phan tich nhan to EFA.
Ket qua phan tich Coefficientsa, tat ca cac gia tn Sig. = p{t) taong dng vdi eae nhdm F2; F3; F6; F7 deu < 0,05 (bang 16). Do do, tac gia da xay dOng daoc phUdng trinh hoi quy bpi nhasau:
Quyet djnh lUa chon trUcmg DH cua HS mien Bac = 1,953 + 0,597*F2 - 0.146*F3 + 0.088*F6 + 0.09*F7
4 . K H U Y i N N G H !
Daa vao l<et qua nghien ctru tren, tac gia de xuat mot so Ichuyen nghj giup cac trUdng DH nam bat dupc mong muon, nguyen vpng ciia HS trung hpc phd thdng de cd the xay dang chien lapc, ke hoach tuyen sinh phii hdp, dat hieu qua.
Mot la, nd li/c ciia truioig DH dUa thong tin ve trddng den vdi HS. C a c t r a d n g D H n e n s d d u n g g i a i p h a p t r u y e n t h o n g t U d n g t a c , k e t h d p c a c h i n h t h a c t r u y e n t h d n g d e c u n g c a p t h o n g t i n c h i n h t h d n g v e n h a t r U d n g n h u t r a n g t h d n g t i n d i e n tCr c u a t r U d n g , b a o d i e n t d , m a n g x a h p i f a c e b o o i c , t r a n g t i m k i e m G o o g l e . . . b d i U u d i e m c u a c a c h i n h t h d c t r u y e n t h d n g n a y la sU l a n t d a t h o n g t i n n h a n h c h d n g , d e d a n g t i m k i e m , Ben c a n h d o , t r a d n g D H
B^ng 13. Ketqua phan tich Anova theo noi sinh ddi vdi yeu t6"f)ac diem ciia tri/crng BH" "Co hdi viec lam sau khi tot nghiep BH"
Oia phucing
Nongthon Thi tran Thiia Thanh pho TSng conq
SS quan
sat
390 86 42 149 667
Noi sinh doi vdi yeu to dac diem ciia trudng DH
Trung binh
4,29 4,06 4,13 4,08 4,20
fid lech chuan
0,525 0,616
0,554 Phucmg
sai
0,027 0,066 0,086 0,045 0,021
Khoang tin cay 95% for Mean Gidi ban
dudi 4,24 3.93 3,95 3,99 4,16
Gidi han tren
4,34 4,19 4,30 4,17 4,24
Ndi sinh doi vdi yeu to cd hoi viec iam
Trung binh
4,28 4,02 4,19 4.05 4,19
fid iecb chuan
0,644 0,768 0,594 0.583 0,650
PhUdng sai
0,033 0,083 0,092 0,048 0,030
Khojng finely 95% for Mean Gidi han
dudi 4,22 3,86 4,01 3,95 4,14
Gidi ban tr^n
4,35 4,19 4,38 4,14 4,24
<iii 7 S - 3 n i 4 . Tan d i i KHOA HOC icdnAie;
Bang 14. Ket qua ph
fiia phiforg
Ndnq then Thi tran ThKi Thanh pho long cdng
So guan
sat
390 86 42 149 667
n tich Anova theo nen smh doi vdi yeu t6"5u phu hop vdi nganh hoc^ "Cac ca nhan anh hudng den viec chpn trudng f)H cua H Noi sinh ddi vdi yeu tosu phu hdp nganh hoc
Trung binh
4,24 4,12 4,25 4,10 4,20
Oo lech chuan
0,500 0,581 0,432 0,547 0,521
PbUdng sai
0,025 0,063 0,067 0,045 0,020
Kboiing tin cay 95% for Mean Gidi ban
dudi 4,19 4,00 4,11 4,02 4,16
Gidi ban tren
4,29 4,25 4,38 4,19 4,24
Noi sinb ddi vdi yeu td cac ca nhan dnh hudng
Trung binh
3,27 3,36 3,38 3,62 3,37
DSiicb cbuiin
0,717 0,575 0,942 0,744 0,740
PhUdng sai
0,036 0,062 0,145 0,061 0,030
Kbodngtincay95%for Mean Gidi han
dudi 3,20 3.24 3,09 3,50 3,31
Gidi ban ti^n
3,34 3,49 3,67 3,74 3,42
BanglS.ANOVAa M o d e l
•
Regression Residual Total
Sum of Squares 105.301 208,327 313,628
df 7 659 666
Square 15.043 316
F 47 586
Sig.
otxf
nen to chdc cac sa kien nhUgldi thieu, t a van tuyen sinh, giao due hadng nghiep... trong dd, can quan tam den nhCfng van de: (i) Ca hdi viec lam cua smh vien tdt nghiep, vi nhdm HS Kha, Gidi rat quan tam den noi dung nay; (ii) Nganh hpc ma nha tradng dang gi^ng day se phu hpp vdi nhdng ddi tapng nao? Dieu kien, yeu cau ve kien thdc va ky nang doi vdi ngudi hpc; (iii) Mdi phu huynh tham gia va cho y kien t u van djnh hudng them.
Hai Id, ca hoi viec Idm va hoc tiep trong ti/ang lai khi ra trddng. De tao cd hpi viec lam cho sinh vien khi ra tradng, cac trudng DH can lam tdt cae van de:
Bang 16. Coeffidentsa
(i) Md nganh ddo tao: trade khi tien hanh md nganh dao tao, cac trudng phai tien hanh nghien cdu ky ve nhu cau, xu hadng van dong cua thj tradng lao ddng trong thdi gian tdi (tCf 5 den 10 nam); nhffng yeu cau ve kien thac va ky nang can ph^i cd ddi vdi sinh vien sau khi tdt nghiep, tren cd sd do, xay dung chaong trinh dao tao sat vdi thuc te nhu cau cua xa hpi. (ii) Dao tao theo dia chi: cac trudng chu dong tim den doanh nghiep va phdi hop vdi doanh nghiep de tien hanh chinh sCra chuong trinh dao tao theo dac thii cua doanh nghiep; mdi doanh nghiep tham gia ho tro giang day ddi vdi nhufng hoc phan can ky nang dac biet, kien thac thuc te. (iii) Du hoe, xuat khau lao ddng: nha tradng tao dang cae mdi quan he hop tae quoc te ve dao tao nha lien thdng dao tao, dao tao theo phUdng thdc 1 + 3,2 + 2... (1 den 2 nam hoc trong nadc
phan hpc cdn lai hpc d nadc ngoai}.
Ba fa, xay ddng bieu hoc phi ro rang, bap ly phu hop v&i dieu kien xa hoi vd dugc cong bo cong khai. Trong qua trinh nghien cdu, tac gia thay nhieu gia dinh HS thich chon cac trudng cdng lap vi hoc phi thap va cd mdc hpc phi rd rang. Vi vay, cac tradng DH can xay dang bieu hpc phi cu the cho timg hoc phan (hoe phan ly thuyet, thac hanh, cdsd nganh, chuyen nganh...), dakien hpc phi toan khda. NhCrng thdng tin bieu hpc phi nen daoc cap nhat tr^n website cua nha tradng.
Bon Id, tap trung phdt trien doi ngu gidng vien co trinh do chuyen mdn cao, nhiet tinh, co khd ndng gin ket gida ly thuyet vdi tbiic te. Nh&
tradng can phSi cd chinh sach de thu hut nhang giang vien cd trinh dp, uy tin; Xay dUng chien lapc phat trien doi ngu theo Id trinh, tuyen dung giing
{Constant}
fiacdiem cua tiudnqeH(Ti)
No luc cua IruSng BH dua thong tin ve tru&ng den vi^
HS(T,)
Co hoi viec ISm va hoc tiep trong tucmg lai khi ra t r i / d n q ( F j )
5uphii hc^ nqanh tiocvdi ban than HS (F.) Cac ca nhan anh hudng aen viec chon tri/dngOH cua HS(F,)
Thonqtintuvan(Ft) Ty le Choi (Fy)
Unstandardized Coefficients B 7,953 -0,017 0,597 -0,146 -0,032 0,040 0,088 0,090
Std. Error 0,219
0,054 0,040
0,042 0,055 0,032 0,036 0,022
Standardized Coefficients
Beta
-0,014 0,542 -0,139 -0,024 0,042 0,095 0,135
t
8,903 -0,310 14,817 -3,439 -0.589 1,241 2,417 4,100
Sig.
0 0,757 0,000 0,001 0,556 0,215 0,016 0,000
Coliinearity Statistics
0,754 0,617 0,588 0,865
0,925 ViF
1,916 1,326 1,621 1,702 1,156
1,082
»0ITapdiiKHOAHOC&CONGNGHE. S o 2 5 . 2 0 1 4
ECONOMICS-SOCIETYl
vien taong lai cd nang luc chuyen mon, thadng xuyen dao tao va boi dUdi nghiep vu sa pham va dac biet can cd chinh sach dai ngo hpp ly de vaa d i m bao dat daoc muc tieu cua tradng, tuan thii nhijrng quy dinh cua Nha Nudc, vUa dam b i o quyen Ipi cua ngudi lao dong;
Nang cao trinh dp, bdi dudng chuyen mon, nghiep vu cho dpi ngu can bd quan ly eua cac tradng de thiic hien cac chinh sach mdt each hieu qua; Dau ta kmh phi cho cdng tac dao tao, boi dudng, to chdc cae buoi hpi thao, sinh hoat chuyen mdn, ed giao vien di thac te....
Ndm la, hoan tbien he tbdng ca sd vdtchdt {thu vien, ky/ tuc xa, nha an, khu vui choi giai tri...) phuc vu cho dao tao.
Sau Id, cdn quan tdm den vai trd cua thdy/co trong tu vdn budng nghiep. Thuc trang ve giao due hadng nghiep trong cac tradng trung hpc phd thdng khu vUe mien Bac hien nay la dpi ngu thiic hien chuyen trach cdn thieu, trinh dp chuyen mon, hieu biet ve thj tradng lao ddng, cdng cu va bien phat phat hien nang liic cua HS con han che. Trong khi do, HS chuan bi tot nghiep phd thong khong dUdc txii nghiem nganh nghe de hieu hon ve minh va nganh nghe tadng lai ma minh lUa chpn, cdn nang ve sach vd, hinh thufc. Do vay, de khac phuc tinh trang nay, can: (i) Doi vdi trUdng trung hoc pho thdng, can phai xay dung ddi ngu giao vien hUdng nghiep va dapc dao tao bai ban de thiic hien nhiem vu nghien cdu nang liic cua HS, tUvan hadng nghiep cho HS. (ii) Ddi vdi co quan chdc ndng {Bd Giao due va Dao tao, Bd Lao ddng Thaong binh va Xa hdl...), can xay dung he thdng cac tieu chi nghe nghiep, cdng bo cdng Ichai bp eau hdi trac nghiem chpn nghe, cung cap thdng tin ve thj trudng lao dong hien tai v? taong lai. [Hi) Doi vdi HS, d l lua chon t , r a n g DH phu hop vdi bSn than HSr'^^i hieu dapc ban than thich
gl, tinh each va dieu kien hoan canh cua minh; nen chpn ra nhdm nganh nghe thich hop de nghien cufu lua chpn va loai bd dan; chu ddng tham gia/trai nghiem cac nganh nghe trong nhdm hoac tien hanh trac nghiem ve nghe nghiep; daa tren cd sd kha nang, yeu cau nghe nghiep, xu hudng phat trien thi trudng lao ddng, khoanh viing nganh nghe liia chpn theo hoc.
5. K^T LUAN
Trong nghien cOu nay, tac gia da thuc hien khao sat 20/25 tinh/thanh pho Khu vuc mien Bac, mdt sd tinh/
thanh pho khdng nhan daoc phieu khao sat nhU: Ha Giang, Cao Bang, Tuyen Quang, Bac Can, Dien Bien. Vi cd the sd lapng HS eua eac dja phaong nay tham gia ky thi tuyen sinh DH hang nam khdng nhieu, cd cac dac diem nhan khau hpc va trinh dp taong ddng vdi mdt sd dia phuong ma tac gia da khao sat dUdc. Do dd, mac dii thieu phieu khao sat cua cae dja phaong tren nhung da khdng anh hudng den ket qua nghien cdu. Tuy nhien, md hinh mdi ehi giai thich duoc van de nghien eUu 6 mUe do 34% khi nhan rdng tong the. Nguyen nhan do nhan thac ve cac thdng tin trong phieu khdng tdt, ngadi tra Idi cdn chua co dong liic de tra Idi that nhifng gi minh nghi. Ben canh dd, thang do can tiep tuc duoc hoan thien.
PhIn bien khoa hoc: TS. Pham Minh Muc
TAILIEUTHAMKHAO
[1]. Vu Cao flam, Phirong phap luan nghien cuti khoa hpc, Nxb Khoa hoc va Ky thuat. Ha Noi (2008).
[21. Tran Van Qui, Cao Hao Thi, "Cac yeu to anh hucfng den quyet dinh chon tarong AH ciia HS trung hoc pho thong". Tap chi Phat tnen KH&CN (so 15- 2009), flHQGTP.HCM (2009).
[3]. Kotler P, Fox K, Strategic Marl<eting for Educational Institutions, (2nd ed.), New Jersey, Prentice Hall. USA (1995).
[4]. Green, Donald P., and Shapiro, lan.
Pathologies of Rational Choice Theory A Critique of Applications in Political Science. (New Haven, CT Yale University Press} (1996).
[5]. Frank, Robert H. "Rethmldng Rational Choice." In Friedland, Roger, and Robertson, A. F, eds.. Beyond the Marketplace: Rethinking Economy and Society (New York; Aldine de Gruyter), pp, 53-87 (1990).
[6]. Hogarth, Robin M., and Reder, Melvin W.
Rational Choice; The Contrast Between Economia and Psychology (Chicago and London; The University of Chicago Press)(1987).
[7]. Olekalns, Nilss, and Bardsley, Peter.
"Rational Addiction to Caffeine' An Analysis of Colfee Consumption." Journal of Political Economy 104(5), 1100-04 (1996, October).
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