CACVANOeQUCCie
MUA XUAN ARAB, TRIEN VONG CAC LOI ICH CUA MY VA HOP TAC AN NINH TRONG THE GIC^I ARAB
W. Andrew Terrill*
M
iia xuan Arab dang diln ra sau rpng tgi Trung Ddng hien nay cd y nghia quan trpng ddi vdi chinh phu My. NTiin chung, su nhan rdng cac chinh phii il tham nhung va dan chu hem tgi khu vyc Trung Ddng s6 dem lgi nhiiu lgi Ich cho My, bdi vi cac chinh phii dd se khdrig cdn theo du6i dudng ldi chinh trj cip tiln, trd nen dn hda han, dn djnh hon va tu duy rpng md ban. Tuy nhi6n, moi nudc trong phong trao Miia xuan Arab cin phai dugc nghien Cliu mpt each riSng bifl, va can phai hieu rang dan chii khdng phai la mdt ket qua tat yeu cho bat cii qudc gia nao tham ^ia vao phong trao ndi day hifn nay. Nhieu cudc each mgng bat dau rat sudn se nhung ket thiic lgi that bgi. Do dd, nhihig danh gia vl lgi ich cua My trong vdng xoay ciia cac su kifn nay can phai dugc dua ra mpt each ihgn trpng.^ Miia xuan Arab khien chiing la lien he den cupe Cach mang Iran d mpt sd diem, tuy nhien hai cupe each mang nay cd nhieu khac bift hon la luong ddng. Nam 1979, Cach mgng Iran dugc cham ngdi, nudi duong va Cling cd ve co ban la do cd nhihig the lyc chdng doi M5' va dac bifl la do nhihig hogt d9ng ciia quan dpi My tgi Iran. Cho den nay.
hau het nhung bien dgng ram rd ciia Miia xuan Arab hoan toan xuat phal lir nhiing van dl ngi tgi ciia cac qudc gia nay va My khdng cd vai trd Irung tam hoac quan trpng trong vifc giai quyet nhihig bii ddng giura luc lugng chong ddi va chinh phii. Hon thl. mdi quan tam hifn nay ciia My chu yeu van la
' Tien sT. Vi^n Nghifin ciru chien lirpc My
ngheo ddi, tham nhiing, that nghifp va su ihieu hut cac td chiic dan chu. Them vao dd, trong giai dogn 1979-1980, Iran vdi tu each la mdi nha san xuat dau md ldn, cd du kha nang pha vd quan hf vdi My ma van cd the bao dam cac khoan trg cap de Iran an tang ldp dan ngheo thanh thj dang ddng vai trd quan trpng trong vifc lgt dd vua Shah. Trai lgi, rihiing chinh phii hgu Miia xuan Arab da sai lam khi theo dudi chu nghTa thuc dyng de kSu gpi vifn trg va diu lu qudc le, dieu dac bift sdng cdn ddi vdi nhiing nen kinh le khdng cd hogc cd it dau md. Ndi mdt each thing thin, gidi lanh dao chinh Irj mdi se khdng CO anh hudng chinh In hay kha nang Iran ap de yeu cau dan chiing hy sinh nhieu hon niia nhani thach thiic phucmg Tay. Nhan dan khdng the an bing nhiing ldi noi sudng ciia chinh phu va se lai ndi day neu cac chiiih phii ihdi ky hgu each mang liep lyc that bgi trong vifc dap dng nhu ciu veit chit co ban cua hg.
Trd Iai vdi nhiing Irudng hgp cy the, My hifn tai dang duy tri quan hf tdt vdi nhung chinh phii each mang mdi lgi Ai Cap va Tunisia. Trong ca hai Irudng hgp, dgc bifl la Ai Cap, cd nhiing ly do thuyet phuc de hai ben liep lyc hpp tac trong cac van de kinh tl va qudc phong. Cairo cd the Ird nen dgc lap va quyet doaii^hon trong tuong lai, nhung lgi ich cua nd van phu thudc vao vifc duy tri mdi lien he chat ch6 vdi phuong Tay. Lcri i'ch cua Tunisia cQn^ nam trong mdi quan he hop lac vdi cac qudc gia phucmg Tay neu quoc gia nay mudn tranh su syp dd kinh te va duang dau vdi mdi nguy hiem cua hoat dgng khung bd trong nudc. Ca hai chinh phii diu
Tgp chi nghien cOv CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG SO 2(78) thang 2/2012 27
W. Andrew Terrill Mua xuan Arab, trien vpng.
nhin thflc dugc ring hp phai cd^ gang tap tnmg giii quydt cic vin dd kinh t l do chinh quydn cu dd lai vi theo dudi mdt chinh sach ddi ngoai khdng dupc bd qua cic nhi tii trp nudc ngoai, cac nhi dau tu nude ngoai v i nginh thucmg mai du lich vdn cd vai trd quan trpng ddi vdi ci hai qudc gia.
Tai Libya, chinh quyen Gaddafi cd the bj lit dd li sy phat trien rit cd lpi ddi vdi My, chiu Au vi hau hdt cic qudc gia Arab, nhimg vin cin chu y tdi nhiing didn bidn sau dd nhim trinh nhitag sai lam thdi ky hau each mang. Khi chinh quydn Gaddafi bj lit dd, bit cfl chinh phu kd lihipm nio cung sd tim giai phap de ding v i khdn ngoan nhim duy tri quan hp vdi phuong Tiy vi cic qudc gia Arab vflng Vjnh. Tuy nhidn, mdi nguy hiim van ton tji khi mdt lupng \(m nhitag ngudi cyc doan mang khuynh hucing bao lyc da trdn khdi^ he thdng cac nhi tu cua Gaddafl hoic sdng bit hpp^ phip ngay tai thdi didm cupe ndi diy bit diu. Nhitag ngudi din Libya cd it kinh nghipm vdi dan chu, vi sy ra di cfla Gaddafi cd thl khdng din tdi vipc hinh thinh mdt chinh phii din chu. Trong trudng hpp dd. My sd_ ung hp vai trd cfla Lidn hpp qudc, chiu Au vi Lien doin Afab trong vide tii xiy dyng Libya, nhtmg My sd khdng nhting tay qui siu trong vipc djnh hinh tucmg lai cua Libya.
Cic nhi linh d^o My se xem xdt mpt cich thin trpng bit cfl yeu ciu nio ciia chinhphu mdi thdi ky h$u Gaddafi trong vipc hd trp chong khung bo.
My dang ddi mat vdi nhidu van de nhay cim t^i Bahrain, ddng minh quan trpng cua My. nhung ddng minh niy l^i khdng the kidm soit dupc mdi quan he giiia cpng ddng ngudi Sunni vi Shite. Su cd mit cua hii quin My tai Bahrain khiin My khd tranh khdi bj can dy trong khung hoang, gidi lanh d^o My rd ring d i lo ling vd mdi quan hp phin cyc qui siu giura ngudi Sunni vi ngudi Shite tsii qudc gia nay. Thai dp khoan dung cfla My ddi ydi sy dan i p cfla chinh phu Bahrain cd thl vi thl sd lim mit long cpng dong ngudi Shite d ngoii Bahrain va sd khidn cpng ddng ngudi Shite tai B ^ a i n trd ndn qui khich, thim chi sd khiin nhiiu
ngudi trong sd ho coi Iran nhu mpt vj ciru tinh tidm ning. Trii l^i. phi vd tit c i quan hp cua My vdi Bahrain, bao gdm c i quan hp quin sy sd l i mdt sy nit lui mang tinh chidn lupc ddi vdi My v i dilu niy rit cd lpi cho Iran, Ndi chung, tinh hinh t^ii Bahrain vi die bidt l i b?o dpng da lim tdn h?i lpi ich cila My, cii thien vi tri cua Iran, nhung tinh trang niy cd the thay ddi dupc ndu My quan tam tdi nhung yeu ciu cua ngudi Shite tai Bahrain,
Nhitag bidn dpng quy md ldn tai Syria sd khdng kdt thuc nhanh chdng vi dd ding vi mdi quan tam tap trung vio quydn lanh dgo cua ngudi Alawite v i dai da s l nhitag ngudi Hdi giio ddng Sunni. Da phin nhitag ngudi theo giio phii Alawite ludn kidn djnh, trung thinh vgi chinh quydn, nhung cpng ddng niy chi chidm 8-10% din sd, trong khi cpng ddng Hdi giio ddiig Sunni chidm han 70%
din sd v i dang bit min sau sic vdi chinh phu duong nhiem. Khdng cd co sd chic chin nao dd nhin djnh qudc gia niy duy tri dupc sy thong nhit hay chia re trong thdi ky hiu xung dpt. Ngudi Alawite mong mudn thidt lip mpt nhi nudc ridng (ching han nhu quanh Latikiya) trudc khi diu hing cic nhdm vii trang ngudi Sunni bdi mpt nha nudc nhu thl cd thd duy tri dugc nhitag l(;ii ich kinh tl. Lgi ich cua My chic chin s6 khdng bj tdn hai bdi sy ra di cfla chinh quyin Syria, va vide thilt lap mpt dit nudc Syria din chu se l i ddng minh quan trpng trong tidn trinh hda binh giua Arab - Israel vi cupe dill tranh chdng khung bd. Tuy nhidn, sy sup dd ciia chinh quydn Assad vin li dilu chua chic chin.
^ Yemen hidn (Jang chim siu trong cac cupe ndi day cua din chiing, ddi luc qudc gia nay cd nguy co dung bdn bd vyc cfla npi chiin.
Tfl thing 2 nim 2011, chinh phfl Yemen di khdng thinh cdng trong vifc xfl ly hay dip tit nhung cupe bao dpng chinh trj, nhimg nhieu nha linh dao chinh trj v i quin dpi tiip tyc rdi bd theo phe ddi lip, Hon nua, Yemen li qudc gia cin su giup do tfl nhung nudc ling giing giau cd hon vi cpng ddng quoc tl ndu qudc gia niy mudn ton t?i nhu mpt thyc thl chinh trj thdng nhit vi thim chi cd the
28 Tgp chi nghiin ciu CHAU PHI & TRUNG D O N G SO 2(78) thing 2/2012
Miia xuan Arab, bien vong.. W. Andrew Terrill
tranh dugrc nari ddi tren dien rgng. Vdi nhu cau can rat nhiiu vifn trg nudc ngoai, khdng chinh phii nao cua Yemen Iai theo dudi dudng ldi cap tiln mdt each cam hiing dl bd qua nhung ngudn vifn trg tiim nang. Nguy hiem thuc sy tgi Yemen la qudc gia nay cd the bj kiem soat hay anh hudng bdi nhiing id chiic khiing bd nhu Al-Qaeda lgi ban dao Arab (AQAP). Kha nang nay cho thay mdt nguy CO Idn ddi vdi nhiing lgi ich cua My, lgi ich ma ca chinh phii va phe ddi lap da hiia sS giai quyit, mac dii khdng ai trong sd hp tgp trung vao dieu dd vi hifn nay cac cugc Iranh gianh quyin lyc vin diln ra tai thu dd Sana'a.
Algeria trai qua nhihig cugc biiu tinh ldn Irqng thang I nam 2011 klii nhiing ngudi bieu linh yeu ciu phai giam gia thyc phim (gia thyc phim da tang nhanh chdng trong rihiing nam qua) va keu gpi phai nd luc de giai quyil vin dl thit nghifp. Chinh phii da phan img bing each ra Ifnh giam gia cac mat hang thiet yiu bao gdm dau an, dudng va bgi my. Phan img nay da lam giam su chdng ddi, mac dii nh&ng cuOc biiu tinh nhd ban vin liep tyc trong nam 2011. Chinh^ quyen Algeria khdng bj de dpa vao thdi diem nay, va Algeria thanh cdng hon rat nhiiu so vdi Tunisia trong vifc irift lieu, pha vd va kilni che nhihig cd ging ciia phe ddi lap nhim td chiic cac cupe biiu tinh ldn han. Dan chiing Algeria cung d^c biet nhgn thiic dugc nhiing nguy hiem cua npi chien keo dai. Vi dieu dd, khdng cd ngudi Algeria nao cho ring thay ddi chinh quyen la^viec de dang. Nhiing van de CO ban dang dien ra tai Algeria hifn nay triing hpp vdi cupc ndi day lai Tunisia nhung dai nudc nay da rut ra nhieu kinh nghiem tir cufc n^i chiin dim mau keo dai hon mgt thap ky qua. Lgi ich cua My lai Algeria se khdng bj nhiing ngudi bieu linh cung nhu chinh phii nudc nay de dpa.
Jordan ddi luc dugc danh gia la sip nd ra cugc each mgng, nhung nhiing quan ngai nay da bj thoi phdng. Phan ldn dan chiing rat trung Ihanh vdi chinh quyen Hashemite, trong khi nhihig ngudi theo phe ddi lap lai khdng thl dua ra mgi phuong an thay the kha Ihi. Jordan la mgt trong nhihig qudc gia
ngheo lai iiguyen nhal trong the gidi Arab, mac dil qudc gia nay cd kha nang xay dyng cugc sdng tuang ddi dn cho hau het ngudi dan dua vao cac ngudn vien trg tir nudc ngoai. Ngudi Palestine vdi lu cadi cdng dan Jordan it nhal chiem den mdt nura dan sd Jordan, va mdt Jordan dan chu trong dd nhiing ngudi Palestine chiem da sd lien tuc bi dgt dudi ap luc phai tir bd hifp udc hda binh vdi Israel va binh thudng hda quan hf vdi Phong trao khang chien Palestine (Hamas). Nhiing chinh sach dd chac chan se lam cho My dimg vifn trg va cd the chau Au cung se lam nhu vg^. Khi rat nhiiu ngudi Palestine-Jordan mudn cd mdt chinh phu dan chii thi hp cung nhgn thiic dugc ring nhung chinh sach phyc vy quyen lgi ciia dan ihudng rat cd the se hiiy hogi dat nudc hg Iren phuong difn kinh tl vi su thilu hui ngudn vifn trg. ThSm vao dd, Jordan la mdt ddng minh hihi ich vdi My khi qudc gia nay ddng vai trd quan Irong trong cudc chien chdng lgi Al-Qaeda. Bat cii chinh phii nao ke nhifm chinh quyen Hashemite co the se khdng than thifn va mang tinh thd djch ydi My bat chap nhiing hau qua kinh te tram trpng CO thl anh hudng din ngudi dan Jordan.
Vi Ihl My se bj mil mat lpi ich neu^de chinh quyen Hashemite bi Igj) dd. Hcm'Wl, ngudi My vin cd the luong ddi hai long neu nen dan chii dan tiiy dugc ihiel lap lgi Jordan bdi vi su syp dd ciia dai nudc nay se day dan chiing Jordan tdi vyc thim ciia su ngheo ddi, bit on djnh chinh trj va nhu vay Jordan se liep tyc mau thuan cang thing vdi Israel.
Tai Morocco, mdt ban Hien phap rndi da dugc xay dyng, trong dd duy tri quyen lyc ciia nha vua nhung chuyen giao mdt sd quyen luc ciia nha vua cho thii ludng. Vua Mohammed vi thl cd the se vupl qua dugc cudc khimg hoang chinh tri hifn lgi thdng qua nhihig dieu chinh chinh trj khdn ngoan.
Ben canh do, phe ddi lap tgi Morocco Ididng bj chi phdi bdi Hdi giao va khdng coi nhihig chinh sach ddi ngogi cua Morocco la mdt phin quan trpng trong su bit man ciia hp.
My da duy tri mgt mdi quan he cd Iai vdi Morocco qua nhieu thgp ky va se lilp lyc duy tri phuang thiic cii khi quan hf vdi vua va chinh phii mdi vi mdt luang lai cd ihl du
Tgp chi nghien ciru CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG SO 2(78) thang 2/2012 29
W. Andrew Terrill Miia xuan Arab, trien vpng...
doin trudc, Hipn nay. My dudng nhu khdng qui lo ling ve phe ddi lap khdng qui khich vi phan tan d Morocco. Kdt cue tdt nhit se li vide nhi vua tidp tuc thyc hidn cii cachj chdng tham nhung, xay dung mdt the chd dan chu hon. Nhitag nd luc cd ging niy se ngin chin nhitag cupc ndi day trong tuong lai ndu nhu din chiing khdng hii Idng vdi tidn bd hidn tai.
Oman da gip nhidu vin dd vdi cac doin bidu tinh trong Miia xuin Arab, nhung nhflng khd khin niy da dugc kilm soat vi sd khdng li mdi de dpa ddi vdi chinh quyin.
Qua qui trinh diu tranh vdi chinh phu, nhimg ngudi bidu tinh khdng ydu ciu su ra di cua qudc vuong Qaboos, nhung hp di dat dugc thda thuin li bupc qudc vuong phii thiet lip mdt co quan lip phip du manh de CO thd lim ddi trpng viii quydn lyc chuyen chl. Ddi hdi chinh cua hp tuy nhien vin li kinh tl, Qudc vuong Qaboos phin ung nhanh chdng vdi cupc ndi diy trong thing 2 bing vifc cich chflc 12 bp trudng, ting mfle luong tdi thidu, vi hua se tao ra 50,000 viec lim mdi. Nhflng cd ging niy di giup dn djnh tinh hinh. Hidn t?i. chinh phfl Oman khdng gip phii nguy co bi lit dd vi nhitag ngudi chdng ddi ciing khdng quan tim din quan hf giiia Oman vdi My. Khdng cd lgi ich nio ciia My bj de dpa tai thdi diim niy.
Kuwait hifn dang gip phii tinh trgng rdi ren chinh tri trong nghj vifn khi nghj vidn cua hp bj bdi xiu biM moc xam chiim Barhrain do ngudi Saudi cam diu ciing nhu vifc ngudi din dimg ldn ydu ciu chinh phu phai giii quydt cic vin dd lidn quan ddn tham nhung. Kuwait la quoc gia giiu cd vi khdng vip phii nhttng vin dd lien quan den ddi nghdo iihu tai Tunisia hay Ai Cip, ngudi din Kuwait cung khdng tham gia vio nhimg cupc ndi da> hing loat. Cic bidn phap khuydn khich kinh td vdn dupc coi Ii nguydn tic song cdn cua hf thdng chinh tri da khdng duiTC trao cho nhdm ngudi tham gia bieu tinh. khiin hp cim thiy hp bi gat ra khdi nhimg l(?i ichkinh td vi nhitag sy rang bupc kinh td ciia dit nudc. Vin dd ndi lai ldn nhat cua qudc gia niy li chu nghTa be phii gifla ngudi Simni va ngudi Shite, mac du tham
nhung ciing li mpt nguydn nhin quan trpiig khidn ngudi din khdng hii ldng, Nhung vin dd_ niy vin cd the kidm soit dugc tgi thdi didm hifn tai. Hon ntta, kinh tl Kuwait khdng phu thudc vio phuang Tiy, nhimg vin cd ly do dl Kuwait thit chit quan hf viji My vi nhung dpng minh khic. Hau hit ngudi dan, bao gdm c i rihiing ngudi it hii ldng nhit vdi chinh phu tidp tuc lo ngai vl sy kifn Iraq ngay ci khi Saddam Hussein di bj lit dd. Cimg viy, nhidu ngudi die bidt quan tam din chinh sich cua Iran ddi vdi dit nudc cua hp. Vifc khim phi ra mdt d giin difp cua Iran tai diy da keo hdi ehudng bip dpng d Kuwait, yi mpt so ngudi cung thl hifn quan ngai vl nhung phin tu in danh cfla Iran ma tfl dd Tehran cd thd kich hoat trong mpt cupc khung hoing.
Lebanon gin diy cfling gip phii tinh trang rdi ren chinh trj vi mpt cupc npi chiin lin thu hai khdng phii li khdng thd, mic dil nhflng didn tidn niy l i kit qui cfla sy khic biet chinh trj vi sy can thifp khdng ngimg cfla Syria tgi Lebanon hem li mpt sy phin flng theo Mfla xuin Arab, Chinh phu do Hezbollah lanh dao d Lebanon da ydu ciu Qudc hpi My ngay lip tire chim dflt vifn trp quin sy cho qudc gia nay. Hanh dpng cim tinh niy li rit de hieu, ya ap luc tliyc hidn chinh sich nhu thd li tit ydu bdi My phan ddi chu nghta khiing bd Hezbollah. Vi chinh phfl Lebanon rat khdng dn dinh, cd the My sd tidp tyc gifl quan hf vdi quin dpi Lebanon d muc dp nhit djnh, nhung nhin chung sy dinh liu cua My d Lebanon sd la rat nhd.
Du li qudc gia it khi thu hut dugc sy chi y cua du luin qudc td, Mauritania cung bj iiih hudng bdi Mfla xuan Arab, Mpt nhdm ddi lip cd tdn ti "Phong trio 25 thing 3"
dugc thinh lap J i y cim^ himg tfl Tunisia yi Ai Cap vi di cd ging td chflc cic cupc bieu linh gidng nhu cic cupc bidu tinh dang thach thflc hf thing chinh tri tai Ai Cip vii Tunisia, Phong trio niy da td chflc cic cupc bidu tinh vi phin ddi tu thing 1 nam 2011, ydu cau phii cd cai cich phinh trj yi cii cich xi hpi, die bidt trong van dd _quydn lpi ciia ngudi ngheo. O Mauritani, gidng nhu d cic qudc gia khic, chinh quydn da dip lai bing
30 Tgp chi nghien cuu CH*u PHI & TRI NG DONG SO 2(78) thing 2 / 2 0 i |
Mua xuan Arab, trien vpng... W. Andrew Terrill
vifc phoi hijrp hua hen cii cich vdi trin ip.
Thii tudng (la hfla sd thyc hifn cii cich hing loat, nhtmg cinh sit qudc gia nudc niy vin su dyng dui cui vi hoi cay dd giii tin cic cupc bidu tinh. Phe_ dii I^ip khdng ydu ciu chinh phu thay ddi chinh sich ddi ngoai nhtmg ydu ciu chinh phu nidi phii tim kilm sy trg giup tfl bdn ngoii dl phit tridn ca sd ha ting kinh t l vi khai thac cic ngudn tii nguyen cd sin. My chic chin sd lim vifc vdi mpt chinh phfl Mauritani tip trung vio cic vin dd cii cich vi se giup dd hp kilm chl cac hoat dpng mgnh md cfla Al-Qaeda trong Nhdm Hoi giao Maghreb (AQIM). Tuy nhidn, vin chua cd gi chic chin vl sy thanh lip cua mpt chinh phii nhu thl.
Tai thdi diim niy, nhflng ngudi thupc phe doi I^p Saudi cdn qua it vi khdng cd to chup, do viy chua thyc sy li mdi nguy hidm ddi vdi chl dp quin chu. Hon thl,,gidi lanh dao Saudi di chi nhitag khoin tidn ldn dd cii thifn phuc lgi cho ngudi din ciia hp vdi hy vpng dim bao cho nhin din nhflng l(?i ich kinh te dd hp ung hp chinh phfl, tuy nhidn yd mjt chinh trj, gidi cim quyin khdng cd bit ky sy khoan nhugng nio. Nhitag nguoi theo phe doi lap Saudi tidn giinh mpt chd diing quan trpng de ydu ciu cii cich Saudi Arabia hoJc li thay thl gia dinh hoing gia Saudi bing mpt kilu chinh phu khic; hp cd thd dd ldi cho My vi da h8 trp duy tri sy cai trj cua chl dp quin chu^ trong nhidu nim. Nhung ginh n|ng nhu thl li cd thit, cho du phe ddi lgp da hudng vd mp hinh cii cich cua phuong Tay vi cd thl sd tiip tyc flng hp quan hf thin thien vdi My. Bit, cfl thay ddi nio tai Saudi Arabia ddu khidn My phii quan tim d|c bift. Hon thl, niu nhttng ngudi cap tiln nim dugc quyin kidm soit Saudi Arabia trong trudng hgp lyc lugng tham gia Mfla xuin Arab lgi ndi day, nhung niu sau dd hp jgi bi diy ra ngoii ria thi didu niy sd la mpt vin de ldn ddi vdi My. Nhung ci nhin niy cd thd dl ding tu chdi My mi khdng quan tim nhung hjiu qui kinh tl cua nhung hinh dpng nhu the.
Bat cii chinh sich nio My ip dung ddi vai cic quic gia thupc nhdm Mfla xuan Arab diu li sy mgo hidm bdi tuong lai khdng chic chin cfla hp. Tlnh the niy ydu ciu mpt sd
cic qudc gia (bao gdm Ai Cap, Timisia, vi cd the l i Yemen vi Libya duiM nhitag chinh quydn mdi) dugc ddi xfl nhu nhitag ddng minh khi hp dang trong qui trinh chuydn ddi, midn Ii hp cd mpt co hdi thich hpp dd xiy dyng dugc mpt chinh phii cii each. Cic nha lanh dgo bin dja se cd nhitag lidri hf ddiig minh vdi My nhu mpt tuydn bd tidn tdi nen din chu. Dudi nhiJng dilu kifn dd, cic chucmg trinh nhu Chucmg trinh dim phin ciia Bp tham muu quin sy My (US.Army Staff Talks Program), nhttng cupc thio luan song phucmg vd cic van dd chidp luge vdi cic qudc gia ddi tic ndn dupc tidp tyc thyc hifn niu khdng cic qudc gia niy sd khdng cdn li nhitag ddng minh tin cpy liu dai. Su tham gia cfla cic lanh dao cip cao trong cic cupc hpi nghj khu vyc vin li mpt vifc lim hifu qui khi ddi tugng thio luin vin li nhitag van dd tucmg ty di tdn tgi trudc khi cd Mfla xuan Arab. Cflng cd mdt so van dd khd xfl nhgy cim phai dupe xem xet. Cic tudng Hnh quin dpi My sd phii quan tim tdi vifc tham gia cic cupc dien din da phuang noi xuat hif n cic dgi difn cua cac phong trio chdng ddi ma My khdng cdng nhan.
Cic tudng ITnh quin dpi My cung ndn tidp tyc cd mdi lidn lac vdi cic tuy vidn tir Tunisia vi Ai Cgp, cung nhu tfl cic qudc gia ddng minh khac bao gdm ci Bahrain. Quan he tiep xuc, vdi Syria sd phii dugc giim thidu ddn mfle tdi da, 66 khdng phii li mdt chinh sich khd khin dd ip dyng vi chinh phu Syria di tii trg cho mdt nhdm yu trang tin cdng Su quin My, Vifc My quyit djnh cdng nhin Hdi ddng din tpc lam thai (TNC) va sy sup dd dugc dy doan trudc cua chinh quyen Gaddafi deu sd la hira ich cho nhitag ngudi diing diu quan dpi My khi tham du cic cupc thucmg thuyit hien riay vdi chinh phu Libya mdi vd nhfliig vin dl chiin luge. My khdng quan hf nhidu vdi Libya trong 41 nam qua vi bit cfl nd luc nio dd hidu dugc nhitag lo ling cua mpt chinh phfl mdi se cd gii tri vi thgm chi cd thd dugc dinh gia cao bdi nhitag ngudi diing diu quan dpi Lybia.
Trong hoin cinh nhu viy. My sd cin phii duy tri Chuimg trinh Giio dye vi huin luyfn quan sy qudc td (IMET) ddi vdi Ai Cap vi
•Tunisia vi tiip tyc nhitng hinh thuc hd trg
Tgp chlngliiin ciru CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG so 2(78) thing 2/2012 31
IrK Andrew Terrill Miia xuan Arab, trien vpng...
quin sy khic. IMET khdng ndn dugc xem xet nhu li lya chpn tdi uu ddi vdi cic phong trio ndi day cho (ldn khi My chinh thflc cdng nhgn nhitag chinh phu mdi thupc phe ddi,lap dugc thinh lip (ngay ci khi dang npi chiin), NIU gidi linh dgo My cd tham vgng cdng nhgn nhitag chinh phfl dd nhu di ldn kd hoach vdi Libya, khdng cd Iy do gi dl ngin can cac chinh phu dd tham_gia vio chuang trinh IMET vi ,ximg dpt vin dang didn ra.
My cung cd thd cung cip vu khi cho phidn quin tgi Libya sau khi cdng nhin chinh thuc
•TNC, mic dfl didu niy cd thd khdng cin thidt. Phip vi Qatar hipn,dang cung cap yu khi vi cic chuydn gia huin luyfn cho phidn quin Libya, nhflng ngudi hp cdng nhgn nhu mpt chinh phfl hiprp phip, cdti vai trd cfla My trong nhttag nd, lyc nhu thd li khdng ldn;
didu dd chic chin sd khdng dugc ua ehudng tgi Libya. Vfl khi vi cic khda, huin luydn cho phidn quin Syria tai thdi diem nay sd la mpt sai lam nghidm trpng, sd tgo thuin lgi cho chinh phfl Damascus cd cich bao chua khi xda bd tat ci nhttag can trd trong vifc thim sit ngudi din mi cin cin quin sy van khdng nghidng, vd phia nhitag ngudi bieu tinh. My ndn tidp tyc tham gia vio cic cupc tap trin da qudc gia bag gdm Ai Cap vi
•f unisia ciing nhu nhitag ddng minh khic cfla My tgi khu vyc.
Jordan cd thd dugc dinh gia la mpt ddng minh hihi ich giup My phin ling vdi Mua xuin Arab. Hd trg quin sy cho Jordan ndn dugc duy tri midn la chiiih phu nudc niy khdng qui Igm dyng nhin quydn dd chdng lgi nhitag ngudi bidu tinh, Jordan li, mdt trong nhitag ddng minh quan trpng nhat cua My tgi khu vyc, vi sy In djnh cua dit nudc niy li rat quan trpng ddi vdi nhitag lpi ich cua My tgi Tnmg Ddng, Hiiy bd tip trin hay huin luyfn hoic khdng ddng y vdi tien tri,nh cii cich se la mpt sai lim khung khilp.
Trong trudng hgp cfla Jordan, se li khdii ngoan khi, md rpng hi^p tic quin su, de nhttag thidt bj cfl,a Jordan cd the dugc sfl dung vio vifc huin luyfn quin dpi chuydn nghifp hda vi chdng Idiflng bd phyc vy cho cic chinh phu mdi. Md rpng hgp tic My - Jordan trong vifc lgp kd hogch an ninh qudc gia, kl hoach dpt xuat vi phit tridn hgc thuyit li mpt cich cyc ky hiiu hifu dd tiln vd phia trudc. Tnmg tim huin luydn hogt
ddng die bift cua vua Abdullah II (KASOTC) li hit siic quan trpng. Trung tim nay cua Jordan dugc xay dyng bang vdn cua My, cd thd cung cip nhitag khda huan luyfn die bift cho quin ilpi Libya thdi ky hgu Gaddafi, Nd cung rit gii trj, trong vide giiip quin dpi Yemen sau Uii chin dpng tai qudc gia nay cham dirt. Trdn khia cgnh niy, quan dpi Yemen cd thd phii xiy dyng lai dd dpi phd vdi nguy co khflng bd. Cung cip vdn de ting cudng,hogt dpng tgi KASOTC se li chi tieu diing dan cfla My. Cic dpi huin luyfn di dpng dugc gfli tdi KASOTC dl lam vifc viji nhflng ngudl huin luyen se ciing la mpt budc tiln ding ghi nhin.
, Ciing cd nhitag vin dd die bift Iidn quan den chu nghTa khflng bd. Nhu di ndi d tren, xung dpt trong ldng Yemen dang tgo eo hpi cho nhitag td chflc khflng bd vi die bift li AQAP. My da nhin dugc nhttag dim bio rang ci chinh phu lim thdi Yemen vi Jyc lu(;ng ching ddi Mfla xuin Arab sd sing sing klt,h(jp vdi Washington dl chdng lgi khung bd, nhtmg khdng ai tgi Yemen xem diy li ira tien hing diu. Bit cii can thifp quan sy nio cua My tgi Yemen bing bp binh se li thim hpa vi ngudi din Yemen rit khdng thifn cam vdi sy cd nijit cua lyc lupng quin sy My y i gin rihu mdi ngudi Yemen cd thd lim dl chdng lai sy cd mat cfla quin dpi My, khdng quan, tim tdi ly do tgi sao.
Tuy nhidn. My cd thd dat dugc sy cho phdp khdng cdng khai t f l c i phia (ihinh phfl lin nhung lyc lugng chdng ddi dl tiip tuc cic cudc khdng kich, bao gdm ca nhiing cupc khdng kich bing miy bay khdng ngudi lai chdng lai AQAP. Phe ddi lgp tai Yemen cin phii bidt ring nhitag quan hf trong tuong lai vdi My phu thupc vio sy hop tic cua hp trong vipc chdng lai khung bd. Curig nhu viy, ca Arab Saudi vi Jordan cd thl ddng vai trd quin su quan trpng trpng vifc hd trp chdng khung bd, thim chi ndu hg phii hpp tic vdi nhflng chi huy dia phuang vi nhttng thu Hnh cua cic bp lgc dd lim dieu dd, Amman vi Riyadh cim thfl Al-Qaeda va nhttag td chflc nhinh cua nd hon phin ldn ngudi My, Nhitag no luc cfla hp sd Ii rat cin thilt.
Nguon: SSI Strategic Studies Institute Dai h«?c Chidn tranh Quan sir IViy, 02/08/2011
32 Tgp chl nghiin cuu CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG so 2(78) t h i n g 2/2012