TAI CHINH-NGAN HANG-BAO HIEM
MOT SO NHAN TO TAC DONG DEN CAU TRUC VON DOANH NGHIEP
BAT D O N G S A N N I E M YET TREN scf GIAO DICH CHlfNG KHOAN THANH PHO HO CHI MINH (HSX)
• PHAN MINH TRI
TOM TAT:
Nghien etfu nay nham xdc dinh mot so nhan to tde dpng de'n cd'u true vo'n (CTV) eua ede doanh nghiep (DN) bS't dong san nidm yd't tren HSX giai doan 2012 - 2018, vdi 196 quan sdt.
Ke't qua h6i quy FEM - ti6c lifOng vffng doi v6i mo hmh, eho tha'y rang: Kha nang thanh todn ng^n han, vong quay lai san, doanh ldl tieu ihu, ty le lara phat va t6'c d6 tang tru'dng ed tde dong ngifde ehilu vdi CTV, nhu'ng ede bid'n: Quy mo DN va lai sua't cho vay lai cho ke't qua ngifdc lai V£i tS'l c^ cdc bid'n d^u co ^ nghia ihong ke. Ben eanh dd, nghidn ciJu ciing chi ra rang:
ChiTa eo du b^ng chtfug khoa hge ve sif lde dong cua vdng quay tiii san cd'dinh den CTV.
Tuf khoa: Ca'u true vo'n, doanh nghidp nidm yd't, bCt ddng san, ufde lu'dng vffng.
1. D^t vd'n de
Trong nhffng nam gan day, thj trffdng bat dong san Viel Nam da tang trffdng rat manh va cung vdi xu hifdng dd, edc DN trong nganh Ba't ddng san da tffng bifdc kh§e phuc dffde eae khd khan tff cuoc khung hodng kinh Id' mang lai, nhff: Kha nang thanh todn ede khoan np ngay cang cai thien, giam nguy ed bi phd san... eung nhff eang eai thien hieu qua hoat ddng eung nhff gia tri DN. Tuy nhien, vdi dac diem la mot nganh ddi hdi vd'n ldn va phu thu6e ra't nhieu vao nd phai tra, trong boi canh tin dung ngay eang bie'n dong theo hffdng khd kiem scat va mat bang lai.sua'tcung thay doi kho iifdng, caccdng ty CO phan trong nganh Ba't dong san can tim ra cac nhdn td'anh hffdng de'n CTV nham dieu chinh de ed CTV sao cho td'i da hda dffde hieu qua hoat dong va gia tang gid trj DN Vdi nhffng li do do, tdc gia chpn nghien effu van de: Mot so' nhan to tae dpng dd'n CTV eua DN bat ddng san nidm yet tren HSX.
2. Thid't kd'nghidn ctfu
2.1. Ctf sd ly thuyet vd cdc nghien cdu thtfc nghiem
Theo Ahmad va cae cong sff (2012): CTV la mo'i quan he ty trong giffa nd va vd'n chu sd hffu trong tdng nguon vd'n cua DN difpc suf dung de tai trd eho ede hoat ddng san xua'l kinh doanh Vdi khai niem CTV nay ke'l hpp vdi cac nen tang eae ly thuyd't lien quan dd'n CTV, nha: Ly thuye't M&M, ly thuye't ddnh dd'i CTV, ly thuyd't trat tti phan hang eung nhff ly thuye't ehi phi dai dien.. cho rang CTV bi tde dong bdi ye'u to' vT mo, nhif: Lai suat, lam phat, tang trffdng GDP... Ngoai ra, nd eon bi tdc ddng cua cde yd'u to' vi md: Tinh thanh khoan, quy md DN, vdng quay tai san va kha nang sinh ldi... Ngoai ra, vdi cac nghien effu thffe nghiem eua mdt sd' tae gia trong va ngoai nffdc vd md'i quan he cua CTV vdi cae nhan to'khde, nhff: Biger va cde epng siJ (2007) eho rang kha nang sinh ldi edc tac dpng dd'n CTV; Tran Hung Sdn (2011) cho
TAP CHi CONG THIfdNG
rdng tinh thanh khoan cd md'i quan he ngffpc chieu vdi CTV; Chen. J. J (2004); va Vu Thi Ngpc Lan (2014), eho rang: Quy md DN co tdc ddng tich cffc de'n CTV.
2.2. Mo hinh nghien cdu
Tren cd sd eae ly thuye't v^ ea'u true vd'n cung vdi cac bang chffng thffc nghidm, nghien effu nay se ke thffa mpt so' y tffdng tff cac nghien effu trffde, dong thdi se bd sung cung nhff cd sff dieu ehinh de phu hdp hdn vdi npi dung nghien cffu: M6l sd' nhan to' tdc dpng dd'n CTV eua DN ba't ddng san mem ye't tren HSX, tae gia du'a ra cdc bid'n nghien cffu ihudc nhom vi md va vi mo cung nhff md hinh nghien cffu de xua't nhff Hlnh 1.
Bid'n dai didn eho CTV: Ty Id nd (DA), du'pc do lffdng bang tren tdng np/long tai san.
Bie'n dai dien eho nhdm vi md, bao gdm: (1) Bie'n dai didn cho tinh thanh khoan: Ty so' thanh lodn ngan han (CR), do Iffdng bang lai san ngan han/nd ngan ban; (2) Nhdm Bie'n lien quan de'n dac diem cua DN, gdm: Quy md DN (SIZE) do Iffdng bdi logaril cua tdng gid iri lai san; Vdng quay tai san cd' dinh (FAT), do lffdng bang doanh thu ihuan/ldng tai san cd' dinh blnh quan; Vdng quay lai san (TAT), do lffdng bang doanh thu thuan/tdng lai san binh quan va (3) Bie'n lien quan dd'n hieu qua hoal dpng: Doanh ldi tJdu thu (ROS), do Iffdng bang lpi nhudn sau thue' tren doanh thu thuan.
Bid'n dai dien cho nhdm vT mo, bao gdm: Lam phat, difpc do Iffdng bang ly le lam phdt; GDP, dffpc do lffdng bang td'c dd tang trifdng GDP va lai sua't, dffdc do lu'dng bang lai sua't cho vay.
Mo hinh nghien cffu de xua't:
DA/, = p„ + ^iCR„ + p2SfZE,i + fisFATi, + P4TATJ, + PsROSj, + P^lNFji + pyGDPi, + fislHit + u,i
Vdi: pQla hang sd'; Pj, P2'-- • Pg ^^ he so'gdc.
Hinh 1: Sd dS md hinh nghien cifu dS xud't
Bien vi mo - Ty sdtlianh toan ngSn han (CR) - Quy mo doanh nghiep (SiZE) - Vong quay tai san cd'dinh (FAT) - Vong quay tai san (TAT)
- Kha nang sinh idi (ROS)
2.3. Ddli^u va phiidng phdp nghien cdu Nghien effu sff dung dff lieu bang can bang (thu thap Iheo ddi iffdng va thdi gian) vdi sd lidu thff cd'p va dffpe thu thap tff eae bdo cao tai chinh thifdng nien (da dffdc kiem todn) cija 28 DN bat dong san nidm yd't trdn thi trffdng ehffng khodn Viet Nam dang hoat ddng tinh dd'n thdi diem eud'i nidn d6 ke toan nam 2018 tren cac trang web cd uy tin:
wwv/.hsx.vn; v/wvi'.hnx.vn. Nhff vay, nghien ci?u nay ed 196 bie'n quan sdt (28 DN *7 nam = 196), da qua long hdp, xff ly va thiel ke bang phan m^m Excel phuc vu cho ti6c lffpng bang phan mem Stala 12.0 bang cac phifdng phap: REM, FEM, cac ki^m djnh va eud'i eung sffdung FEM u'dc Iffdng vifng.
3. Ket qua va thao lu^n ke't qua nghien cihi 3.1. Kei qud nghi&n cdu
Sau khi thffc hien eae kiem dinh, ke'l qua cho thay: Ta't ea eac ehudi so' lieu eua tffng bie'n deu dffng va cd y nghia thd'ng kd. Tuy nhien, nd ciing cho bid't Cd hidn tifpng phifdng sai thay ddi va tif tu'dng quan nen tdc gia sff dung ffdc lffpng md hlnh tde ddng eo' dinh vffng (FEM ffdc Iffdng vffng) la phu hdp nha't, do do, phan tich ke't qua nghidn cffu cung theo ffdc lifdng nay. (Bang 1).
3.2. Thdo luan ke't qua nghien cdu De lam rd sff tac dpng cua cae bie'n irong mo hinh lac ddng nhff the' nao de'n CTV, chung toi chia thanh 2 nhdm npi dung de thao luan ke'l qua nghien effu.
3.2.1. Nhom bien cd tdc dong nguac chieu vdi CTV (Bang 2).
- Bien CR: Kd't qua nghidn cu^i chi ra rang: CR cd lde ddng ngifde ehieu (-) vdi DA va cd dd lin cay 99%. Ke't qua nay cho bid't, ne'u DN tang kha nang thanh loan ngan ban 1% va eae bien khac trong md hinh khong ddi, CTV giam 0.00607%.
Vdi DN, tfnh ihanh khoan la mdt chi lieu rd't quan trong de do Iffdng kha nang thanh lodn nd ngan han bang tai san ngan han, dSy la chi tieu ma chu nd quan tam khi eho DN vay.
Tuy nhien, vdi vai trd ngffdi di vay trong mau nghien cihi nay, khi DN ed nhieu lai san cd tinh thanh khoan eao thi ho se ffu tien sff dung cac lai san nay de lai trd eho cac dff dn cua mlnh hdn la sffdung nd vay va nd phu hpp vdi 1^
Ihuye't trat tff phdn hang Bien vT mo
-Lam phat (INF)
- Tdc do tang trudng kinh te (GDP) -Lai suatcho vay (IR)
420 So 11 -Thang 6/2019
TAI CHlNH-NHAN HANIi-BAO HIEM
DA CR
SIZE
FAT
TAT
ROS
INF
GDP
IR
_cons
N
Bdng REM -0 00663*"
(-3.78) 1706 (-1 41) -0 00382 (-0.39) -0.00308
(-0.12) -0.0477*"
(-3.54) -0.00333
(-0 44) -0.0159 (-0.91) 0.00923
(-11) -1267 (-0.96) 196
. Ket q u d nghien cCfu FEM
-0 00607***
(-3.38) 2.139 (-1.15) -0.00486
(-0.46) -0.0147 (-0.50) -0.0465*"
(-3.39) -0 00394
(-0 52) -0.0172 (-0.97) 0 00993
(-1 15) -1.73 (-0.86) 196
FEM tide lUdng vQng -0.00607***
(-22.24) 2 1 3 9 * "
(-3.62) -0.00486
(-0.91) -0.0147***
(-3.32) -0.0466"*
(-4 00) -0 00394**
(-2.39) -0.0172**
(-2.22) 0.00993***
(-3.58) -1.730"*
(-2.86) 196 Ghi ctiu: *, " , *** tuang Oi]g mdc y nghia 10%, 5%, 1%.
Gia tn thong ke t trong ()
Nguon: Ki't qud phdn tich td phdn mim STATA 12.0
Bdng 2. Cac bie'n co tac dpng ngi/cfc chieu vdi cdu trijc vdn
DA OR
TAT
ROS
INF
GDP REM -0.00663"*
(-3.78) -0.00308
(-0.12) -0 0477"*
^ (-3.54) -0 00333
(-0.44) -0 0159
(-0.91)
FEM -0.00607***
(-3.38) -0 0147
(-0.50) -0 0465*"
(-3.39) -0.00394
(-0 52) -0.0172 (-0 97)
FEM Udc lUdng vOng -0.00607*"
(-22.24) -0 0147*"
(-3 32) -0.0465*"
(-4 00) -0.00394"
(-2.39) -0.0172"
(-2.22)
cung nhuf nghien cffu thffe nghidm cua Trin Hiing Sdn (2011).
- Bien TAT: Ke'l qua nghidn cffu cho bie'l: TAT ed tdc dpng trai chieu (-) vdi CTV va ed y nghia thdng ke 1%. Ke^t qua nay eho bie'l, neu DN tang 1 vdng quay tai san va cdc bie'n khde trong md hinh khdng ddi, CTV giam 0.0147%. Dieu nay cd the giai thich: Nd'u DN co ldi nhuSn, khi cdc DN cang lang vong quay se giup DN cang eai Ihien lpi nhuan, va giup DN tang phan ldi nhuan ehffa phan phd'i de tai d^u tif =>
Gdp phIn Iam giam CTV.
- Bie'n ROS: Ket qua nghien cffu ehi ra rang: ROS ed tdc dpng ngffdc ehieu (-) vdi DA va CO dp tin cay 99%. Kd't qua nay eho bie't, nd'u DN lang doanh ldi lieu thu 1 % va cdc bie'n khdc trong md hinh khdng ddi, CTV giam 0 0465% Didu nay cd the giai thich: Khi DN cd lpi nhuan, ho thffdng ed xu hffdng tang eifdng ldi nhuan chffa phin phd'i de tai diu tif nham md rdng quy md cdng nhu'nd la ngudn giup DN tang Irffdng to't nha'l irong tffdng lai v^ didu nay cung difdc sff ung hd eua ly thuyet trat Iff phan hang DN thffdng ffu lien su'dung ngudn vd'n ben trong khi cin vd'n hdn sff dung ngudn tai trp tff ben ngoai, nhff: Sff dung vay nd hoac va phdt hanh cd phid'u, dac biet, khi so sanh vdi cac DN lam an khdng hidu qua, eae DN lam an cd lpi nhudn se cd dffde ngudn tai chinh nhieu hdn, chfnh vi thd' hp se tdn dung sff dung tridt de lu'dng vd'n ndi lai nay). Ke'l qua nghidn cffu nay dffde sd ung hd eua mdt sd' lde gia lieu bidu, nhif:
OZkan (2001); va Frank. M. Z va edng sff (2009); va Huang vd cOng sff (2006).
- Bien INF- Ke'l qua nghien cffu chi ra rang: Lam phdt eho vay anh hffdng trdi ehieu (-) de'n CTV va cd dp tin cay eao vdi 95%. Dieu nay cd nghia, khi lam phat (INF) tang Idn 1 % va edc bie'n khdc trong md hinh khdng ddi, CTV giam 0.00394%. Theo lde gia, ly do: Khi lam phdi tang len, nd se lde dgng theo hffdng tang den hau he't ta't ea edc ehi phi ke ca lai sua't cho vay chac chan eung se tang, dieu nay, nd se tac ddng xd'u de'n tinh hlnh tai ehinh eua ede DN bS't ddng san, nhff: Chi phi se tang ldn, d&n dd'n giara ldi nhuan va giam kha nang canh tranh
TAP CHi cone THKITNG
cung nhu" nguy cd thua 16 va pha san cao. Ngoai ra, lam phat tang, cae DN bd't dpng san se tinh toan tha'y khdng ed lpi, hp se khdng md rpng hoac giam san xua't kinh doanh, dieu nay lam eho CTV giam.
Phat hidn nay phu hdp vdi ky vpng cua tac gia.
- Bien GDP: Ke'l qua nghidn cffu cho bid't: Td'c do tang trffdng kinh te' (GDP) cd tac ddng tieu cffc (-) dd'n CTV va cd dp tin cay cao vdi 95%. Dieu nay cd nghia, khi td'c dd tang trffdng kinh te' tang len 1% va cac bie'n khac trong md hinh khong ddi, CTV giam 0.0172%. Theo tdc gia, ly do: Khi GDP tang len, dieu nay cd the lam cho ngffdi dan giau cd hdn nen hp se manh dan mua sam nha va chinh dieu nay giup cac DN ba't ddng san cai thidn ldi nhuan, iff dd lang lpi nhuan chffa phan phd'i de tai dau tff vdi muc tidu phdt trien trong dai ban => Hp tang vd'n chu sd hffu vh dieu nay ldm giam CTV.
Ke'l qua nghien cffu nay phii hdp vPi ky vpng eua tdc gia.
3.2.2. Nhom bie'n cd tdc dgng cdng chieu vd khong cd y nghia thdng ki vdi CTV
Bdng 3. Cdc bien c6 tdc ddng cung chieu vd khong cd y nghTo thdng ke vdi CTV DA
SIZE
IR
FAT REM 1.706 (-1.41) 0 00923
(-11) -0.00382
(-0.39) FEM 2.139 (-1 15) 0 00993 (-1.15) -0.00486
(-0.46)
FEM udc ludng vQng 2 139*"
(-3.62) 0 00993***
(-3.58) -0.00486
(-0.91)
- Bie'n SIZE: Kd't qua nghidn cffu eho thay: SIZE ed tdc dpng eung ehieu (+) vPi DA va cd y nghTa Ihd'ng ke d mffe 1 %, tffc la: Neu quy md DN tang 1% va eae bid'n khde trong md hlnh khdng doi thi CTVse tang 2.139%. Ke'l qua nay chi ra rdng, nd'u DN lang quy md thong qua chi tieu lai san, tffc la ne'u DN dau tff de md rdng quy md, se can tim them nguon tai trd va nghidn cu'u eho tha'y eae DN trong nganh Ba't ddng san thich sff dung nhieu nd hdn. Dieu nay cd the ly giai: Theo ly thuyd't ddnh ddi cd'u true, quy md DN va CTV cd sff tffdng quan ly Id thudn, bdi vi DN cd quy md ldn va da dang hda danh mue hoat ddng se ed rui ro pha san tha'p hdn khi so sanh vdi nhffng DN cd quy md nhd hdn.
Ndi mdt each khdc, eae DN ed quy md ldn se dffde cdc to chffc tin dung tin tffdng hdn cac DN ed quy md nhd hdn, nd se lam cho cac td chffc tin dung
dd dang cho vay hdn. Kd'l qua nghien cffu niiy dffdc sff ung hp eua mpl so' tae gi5, nhff: Ozkan (2001);
Chen. J. J (2004); Huang va epng sif (2006) va VO Thi Ngoc Lan (2014). Them nffa, phdt hien nay eung phu hpp vPi ky vpng cua tdc gia.
- Bie'n IR: Ke'l qua nghien cffu cho thd'y: Lai sua't (IR) cd lde dpng eiing chieu (-I-) vdi DA va cd ^ nghia Ihd'ng ke d mffe 1 %, iffc la: Ne'u lai sud't tSng 1% va cde bie'n khdc trong md hinh khdng ddi thi CTV se lang 0.00993%. Theo tac gia, dieu nay c6 the giai thich: Vdi DN khi hoal dpng, chi phi lai vay (dffdc sinh ra tff vay np va lai sud'l di vay) chinh ll chi phi tai ehinh nen DN se tid't kidm dffde thue. Vi vay, khi DN vay vdi lai sua't eao, nd se tac dpng lam cho ehi phi lai vay cang tang len va DN cang giam thud' Ihu nhap phai ndp (tid't kidm diue'). Ngoai ra, cac DN trong nganh Bat ddng san thffdng diing CTV thien ve np ra'l nhieu nen se gay ra cac rui ro tai chinh: Mat kha nang tra nd va ldi, ehi phi khdn kho cung se tang cao Didu nay se lam cho ldi ich ciia la chan thue giam dan va cd the triel lieu lpi ich t^
la chdn thud'mang lai khi DNcd'gang gia tangly so np qua cao. Tuy nhidn, phai hidn nay khong phii hdp vdi ky vpng cua lac gia.
- Bien FAT: Cd tdc dpng tidu cffe dd'n CTV. Tuy nhidn, bai vid't chifa cd du bang chffng khoa hpc ve mdi quan he giffa vong quay lai san cd djnh vdi CTV.
3.3. Han chevd de nghi
Do bai vie't nay chi tap irung vao cac DN trong nganh Ba't ddng san tronggiaidoan tff nam 2012- 2018, vi vay, kd't qua nghidn cffu cd the ehffa bao quat hd't toan bp cac DN niem yd't. Theo tac gia, de khac phue ban che' tren, bai vid't cd the' md rpng them dd'i tffdng nghien cffu: Td't ca cac DN nidm ye't vdi giai doan dai hdn.
4. Kd't luan
Vdi mpt DN trong nganh Ba't ddng san, CTVbi lde dpng cua ca nhan td'vi md va vimo. Dffa vao ly Ihuye't CTV eung nhff cdc nghien cffu thifc nghidm trong va ngoai nffdc, bai nghidn cffu nay chi ra rang: Bien CR, TAT, ROS, INF va GDP cd anh hffdng lieu cffc dd'n CTV eua DN ba't d^ng san, nhifng bid'n SIZE va IR lai cho kd't qua ngffdc lai vdi dp tin eay eao. Nd cung eho bid't: Chffa cd du bang chffng khoa hoe ve md'i quan he giffa FAT va CTV. Kd'l qua nay la cd sd dd edc nha qudn ly c6 thdm bang chffng khoa hpe trong qud trinh hoach dinh CTV, nham giup DN giam thieu rui ro va nang cao hieu qua Irong qud trinh boat ddng •
422 So 11 -Thang 6/2019
TAI CHiNH-NGAN HANG-BAO HIEM
TAI L I E U T H A M K H A O :
/. Doan Nggc Phi Anh (2010). "Cdc nhdn td dnh hudng den cdu true tdi chinh vd hieu qud tdi chinh: Cdn theo phuang phdp phdn tich dudng ddn", Tgp chi Khoa hoc vd Cdng nghe, so'40 - quyen 2, Trudng Dai hoc Dd Ndng.
2. Le Dat Chi (2013), Cdc nhdn td'anh hudng di'n viic hoach dinh cd'u trdc vdn cda cdc nhd qudn in tdi chinh tgi ViitNam. Phdt Irien vd hgi nhdp. Sd'9(19) - Thdng 03 - 04/2013. trang 22 - 28.
S. Trdn HUng Son (2011), Dgc diem doanh nghiip vd tdc do dieu chinh cd'u true vd'n muc tieu cua cdc doanh nghiip sdn xudt cdng nghiep niem yi'l tai Vi^lNam, Tap chi Phdt trien KH&CN, tdp 14, sdQ3-2011,pp. 22-39.
4. Vu Thi Ngoc Lan (2014). "Tdi cd'u Iriic vdn tgi Tap dodn Dau khi Qudc gia Viil Nam ", Ludn dn kinh te, Trudng Dgi hoc Kinh te'qud'c ddn, Hd Ngi.
5. Ahmad, Z., Abdullah, N. M. H., & Roslan.S (2012). Capital Structure Effect on firms performance: Focusing on Consumers and Industrials sectors on Malaysian Firms. International Review of Business Research papers.
Vol.8.No.5.pp.l37-155.
6. Guihai Huang and Frank M.Song (2006), The Determinants of Capital Structure Evidence from China, China Economic Review, Volume 17, Issue 1, Pages 14 - 36.
7. Nahum Biger, Nam V. Nguyen, Quyen X. Hoang (2007), The determinants of capital structure: Evidence from Vietnam. International Finance Review, Volume 8, - Emerald Group Publishing Limited, pp.307 - 326.
8. Chen, J. J (2004), "Determinants of Capital Structure of Chinese-Listed Companies", Journal of Bu.-iiness Research 57 (12), pp 1341-1351.
9. Huang. G & Frank M.Song (2006), "The determinants of capital .structure: Evidence from China", China Economic Review, 17,14-36.
10 Ozkan. A. (2001) "Determinants of Capital Structure and Adjustment lo Long Run Target: Evidence from UK Company Panel Data," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 28,175 -198
Ngay nhan bai: 10/5/2019
Ngay phan bidn danh gia va su'a chii'a: 20/5/2019 Ngay cha'p nhan dang bai: 30/5/2019
Thong tin lde gid:
ThS. PHAN IMINH TRI Trffdng Dai hoc Quo'c te'Hong Bang
SOME FACTORS IMPACTING THE CAPITAL STRUCTURE OF REAL ESTATE ENTERPRISES LISTED ON THE HO CHI MINH CITY STOCK EXCHANGE
• Master, PHAN MINH TRI Hong Bang International University ABSTRACT:
This study is to identify a number of factors affecting the capital structure of real estate enterprises listed on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange in the period of 2012-2018 with 196 observations. The FEM regression results - robust estimation for the model show that the short-term solvency, asset turnover, operating margin, inflation rate and growth rale have opposite effect to the capital structure while the size of enterprise and the lending interest supports the capital structure.
All variables of this model are statistically significant. The study also shows that there is not enough scientific evidence about the impact of the rotation of fixed assets to die capital structure.
Keywords: Capital structure, listed companies, real estate, robust estimation.
