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MOI QUAN HE GiffA SO THU THUE VA TANG TRl/dNG KINH TE
ThS. La Xudn Bdo
Trudng DH Kinh ti' • Ludt, DH Qud'c gia TP.HCM
Tom tdt: Bdi vid't tim hi^'u md'i quan h& giiZa cdc ngudn thu tu! thue vd tdng trudng kinh te dua tren md hinh kinh tc lUgng. Md hinh dugc xdy dung dUa tren cdc da lieu cd lion quan cda 62 tinh thdnh trong giai dogn 1997-2010. Ket qud nghien cUu cho Ihay GDP cd md'i quan h$ tuyin tinh tich cUc vdi thue gid tri gia tdng (GTGT), thue thu nhdp doanh nghidp (TNDN) vd td'ng ngdn sdch (TNS): viec thay dd'i chinh sdch thui' GTGT tit ndm 1994, thue TNDN tU ndm 2004 vd viic Viet Nam gia nhdp WTO tu! ndm 2007 cdng cd tdc ddng tich cUc din GDP.
Tit khda: Chtnh sdch thui', thui' vd tdng trudng kinh te
G i d i t h i g u
Nhdm ddy n h a n h tdc dO tfing trudng vfi p h d t t r i e n k i n h td, viec hodn t h i ^ n cde chinh sdch k i n h tg', tdi chinh ma t r g n g tdm Id chinh sdch t h u d ludn Id nhigm vu quan t r g n g cua moi qud'c gia. Thud cd tdc ddng qua Iai de'n cdc linh vUc k i n h te' - xa hgi vd mgi m d t ddi sd'ng con ngUdi. Thud' lfi mdt trong nhflng nguon thu chinh ddi vdi mgt qudc gia. Thue' cd nhflng tdc ddng de'n sU tfing t r u d n g k i n h td, ddi khi tdc ddng ndy vUa tich cue, vfla tidu cflc. Bretsehger (2010) dfi tim thdy nhflng tdc ddng ty le nghich eua thug' Ign sfl t d n g t r u d n g k i n h t d cua 12 qud'c gia thugc n h d m OECD. Mdt t r o n g nhflng nguygn n h d n khig'n t d n g thug' cd tdc dgng khdng td't de'n tig'n t r i n h k i n h doanh ciia mgt doanh n g h i e p , la vi t h u d Id mgt loai ehi phi. Khi ehi phi doanh nghigp tdng Ien, ne'u thud' tdng se ddn dd'n TNDN giam. Ddng thdi cung se lam n a n ldng cde doanh n g h i e p t h a m gia t h i trUdng.
Kdt qua se d a n den sU tugt ddc p h d t t r i e n k i n h t d eua m g t qudc gia (Bucovetsky, 1991 va Wilson, 1991). Hakim vd Bujang (2011), Christan vd David (2007), Uhliga vfi Yanagawa (1999), Gober vfi Burns (1997) cung tim kig'm bdng chflng v l tde ddng cua thud' Ign sfl t d n g trfldng k i n h te'. Hdu nhU td't cd n g h i e n cUu
nfiy deu kg't ludn rdng vige gidm mflc thue se tao dieu kien cho t d n g trfldng kinh td dai b a n . Ddng quan diem vdi Hakim vd Bujang (2011), C h r i s t i n a vd David (2007) eung da k h d n g dinh vd'n d l ndy trong mdt nghidn cflu d My. Theo tdc gid vige t d n g 1% thue' se lam giam t u 2-3% GDP. T r o n g khi dd t h i Uhliga va Yanagawa (1999) lai cd n h d n dinh khdc:
sfl t d n g thud' dp len nguon thu n h d p ve vd'n se tao hdi sinh ve kinh td ciia mgt qud'c gia.
Cung vdi quan didm nfiy, Glomm vfi Ravikumar (1998) cQng cho rfing, t h u d TNDN cd mdi quan he ty Id nghich vdi sU t d n g trudng kinh te'. Bfii vie't nfiy se tim hieu md'i quan hg gifla cdc nguon t h u tfl thue' vd sfl t d n g trfldng kinh te' dfla t r g n md h i n h kinh tg' Ifldng.
C d s d l y ludin
N h i l u nghign cflu da ehi ra ctf cd'u thud' cd quan hg dg'n sU tfing trfldng k i n h tg' d mdt qud'c gia. De minh chflng sfl ton t a i md'i quan hg gifla thud' vd tfing trfldng k i n h t e , nhieu tdc gid da suf dung md h i n h k i n h t d lUtfng.
Dien h i n h Engen vd S k i n n e r (1996) dd sil dung phUtfng phdp Udc Ifltfng b i n h phfldng nhd nhd't, t r o n g dd GDP la bidn phu thuOc, cdc bidn dgc U p bao gom: ty Ig t a n g trfldng qud'c gia, ty le t d n g trfldng n a n g sudt tdng
HI o>ngngh« n g a H h a n g
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NGHIEN cufu TRAO DOI « « <
t h e , vdn dau tU trUc tid'p nude ngodi, tdng thu thud, t h u d TNDN, t h u d h a n g hda vd dieh vu, t h u d xud't n h d p khdu... Ke't qua dd cho thd'y cdc bign ddc l a p vfi phu thugc cd md'i quan hg tuyen t i n h y nghia.
De xde dinh md'i quan hg gifla tdng trudng kinh tg' vd cdc khodn thug' dugc dp dung trong mgt qud'c gia, n h i l u md h i n h kinh te' lugng dd dugc sfl dung rgng rfii. Baunsgaard va Keen (2010) da tim thd'y dflge sfl hoi phuc kinh tg' cua cde qude gia thu nhdp trung binh thdng qua nguon thu thug'. Sau dd. Hakim vfi Bujang (2011) cung dfi sfl dung phflong phdp ndy eho 120 qud'c gia de xem xdt md'i quan he gifla tdng trfldng kinh tg' vd cdc khoan thu thue'. Ket qud da cho thd'y sU tdc dgng y nghia khi cd sfl thay ddi trong chinh sdeh thud' cua ehinh phu ddn dd'n sfl t h a y doi trong t a n g trudng GDP. Lee vd Gordon (2004) cung da sfl dung dfl ligu bang qud'c gia trgn thg' gidi tfl 1970-1997 vd thflc hien hoi qui a n h hfldng cd' dinh (Fixed Effect Regression) dd kidm dinh md'i tfldng quan gifla thud va sU tdng trfldng kinh td'.
Ngodi ra vdi chinh sdch tfl do thUdng mai, ede qud'c gia se thu h u t dugc vd'n ddu t u nUdc ngodi, nhflng qud'c gia k h a n hid'm ve vd'n se t a p t r u n g vdo san xud't cho san p h a m t h d m dung lao dgng de trao doi la'y cdc san p h a m t h d m dung vd'n. Rose (2004) da chi r a sfl t a n g trfldng kinh t d d 104 qud'c gia sau khi cdc qud'c gia ndy trd t h a n h t h d n h vidn ciia WTO va dfi sii dung md hinh hoi qui tUtfng quan vdi sd lieu do Quy T i l n tg Qud'c td IMF cung cap (tfl 1948-1999 ciia 175 qudc gia). Kdt qud chi r a rfing, cd sfl tdc ddng m a n h dd'n sU t a n g t r u d n g kinh t d cua mdt qud'c gia khi qud'c gia dd thUc hien chinh sdch md cfla t h d n g thfldng k i n h doanh qud'c td', giao Iflu thUdng mai vdi b e n ngofii.
thue' dd'i vdi cdc mflc thud' sua't thfltfng mai, xem ddy Id nguon thu cua ngdn sdch qud'c gia (Baunsgaard va Keen, 2010). Dien h i n h dd'i vdi chdu Phi, n g u i n thu thud thflong mai ehid'm t r u n g binh mgt p h a n tfl cua TNS chinh phii. Cdn nhflng qud'c gia phdt trien thugc thugc khu vflc chdu A vd Thdi Binh Dfltfng thu thud' thfltfng mai chie'm khodng 15%.
Phiftfng p h a p n g h i e n cd'u
De md rdng nghidn cflu, bdi vig't ndy se van dung md h i n h kinh te' Ifltfng hdi qui dnh hudng cd' dinh md Lee vd Gordon (2004), Baunsgaard va Keen (2010), Hakim va Bujang (2011) da dp dung trudc dd. Vdi md hinh ndy, so ligu sfl dung cd dang theo "chuoi thdi gian chdo lap lai theo t h d n h p h d n - repeated cross-sectional time series". Trong dd chu6i thdi gian dUgc t i n h tU 1997-2010. Thdng tin dugc thu t h a p se bao gdm GDP, thud GTGT, thud TNDN, TNS. Ba yeu td thdng tin ndy dfltfc thu t h a p theo tflng t i n h t h d n h rigng biet cua Viet Nam. Tdng cgng cd 62 t i n h t h a n h dugc thu thdp.
Xudt phdt t u cdc md h i n h flng dung trfldc dd nhfl ciia Rose (2004), Lee vd Gordon (2004), Baunsgaard vd Keen (2010), Hakim vd Bujang (2011), md hinh dUtfc de xud't trong nghidn cUu md r g n g Idn n a y cd d a n g t d n g qudt n h u dugc chi r a d phUdng t r i n h (1), md h i n h n a y cung dd duge Arellano (2003) sfl dung trudc dd:
y^^= a. + I^Ppc^^ + £„ (1) Trong dd: _v,, la bie'n phu thudc, vdi i bieu
dien ddn vi h d n h chinh (tinh), t Id bidu d i l n t h d i gian; a^ (i=l...n) lfi h d n g so' cho moi t i n h ;
^P,Xi, Id cde bidn dgc l a p ; e„ Id mflc do sai so' theo dtfn vi h d n h chinh ciia cdc t i n h thfinh va t h d i gian.
T r o n g nhflng n d m g a n d a y , cdc qud'c gia Nd'u flng dung thuc t d md h i n h tdng qudt (1) t r d n t h d gidi, t r o n g dd cd V i ^ t N a m t a n g ndi t r g n vao nghign cflu vdi cdc big'n sd ligu cfldng e h i n h s d c h tfl do thfltfng m a i , nhflng dfldc t h u t h d p , t h i md h i n h flng dung cd dang ede qudc gia n a y v d n coi t r g n g viec dp d u n g dflge chi r a nhfl phfldng t r i n h (2):
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LnGDP,; = b„ + b,LnGTGT|, + bjLnTNDN,; + bjLnTNS.i + D , „ + D,,, + D3,, + c„ (2) Trong do: LnGDP 14 log cua gii tri GDP (ty ddng), duoc xem \k big'n phu thu^c. C^c bi6'n doc l a p bao gom LnGTGT la log cua gi^ tri thu§' GTGT (ty dong), LnTNDN 14 log cua gi4 tri thu«' TNDN (ty dong), LnTNS 14 log cua gid tri TNS cua Chinh phu, Dj la big'n gi^ ndi len su thay d6'i chtnh s4ch cua thu6' GTGT b ^ t d^u t u nfim 1999, bie'n so n4y bfing 1 khi thdi gian t i n h tU nfim 2000 trd v^ sau vfi bSng 0 khi thdi gian tinh ttt trutfc nfim 2000;
D2 la biS'n s6' gid cua sU t h a y doi thue TNDN duoc dp dung tU nfim 2004, big'n sd' nfiy bfing 1 t i n h t u nfim 2004 trd v^ sau, b&ng 0 trUdc nfim 2004; D3 14 big'n gid duoc t i n h tU thdi diem 2007 khi Vigt Nam 14 t h a n h vign chinh thUc cua WTO. Big'n gia se bfing 1 dUdc t i n h tu nfim 2007 trd v^ sau, bfing 0 dugc t i n h tU 2007 trd ve trUdc dd.
Kg't q u d n g h i e n c ^ u v a t h a o l u $ n Kg't qua p h a n tich cho thfi'y cfic k h o a n thu lign quan dg'n thue GTGT, thug' TNDN, TNS gan n h u deu tfing qua cac nfim (Hinh 1).
M6'i quan h$ ty 1^ thufin giffa GDP vfi cdc y^u ta' vS thug', GDP vd thug' GTGT; G D P vd thu(f TNDN; GDP v4 T N S dUdc bi^u diSn trong H i n h 2.
K e t qud cua phUOng t r i n h (2) dUOc chay tif p h d n m i m S t a t a l l (Bdng 1). M6 h i n h dUdc hdi quy trgn sd' mdu quan sdt khd Idn 14 850.
Vdi gid tri P r o b > F = 0.000 cho thfify, m6 hinh cd y n g h i a dd'i vdi cdc big'n dgc ldp v4 bien phu thu^c t h a m gia t r o n g md h i n h . LnGDP= 4.56 + 0.10'LnGTGT + 0.10'LnTNDN +0.11*LnTNS+0.700*D,+0.32*D2+ O.IS'D^ (3) Bdi vi cdc gifi tri P>(t) d i u nhd hdn 1% (tdc 0.01), ngn cdc h§ so' trong h6i qui tUdng quan t6n tai y nghia d mUc 1%. Do gid tri d cOt h$ s^
deu 14 s^ dudng, ngn kg't qud nfiy cho k i t lugn rling, GDP cd md'i quan h^ t u y i n tinh tich cue vdi cdc khodn thu cua t h u l GTGT, t h u l TNDN v4 TNS. Dfiy 14 k i t qud dUdc n h J n dinh cCing quan d i l m vdi kg't qud khdm phd ciia Uhliga vfi Yangawa (1999), Glomm vd Ravikumar (1998).
Big'n gid Dj cho thfi'y vi$c Chinh phO fip dung thay doi chinh sdch thue GTGT da tdc dpng tich H i n h 1: GDP, thue' GTGT, thug' TNDN v 4 TNS tit 1997-2010
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1997 1990 1999 2000 2001 2002 2DD3 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
• LnGDP
• LnTNDN
• LnGTGT LnTNS
Ngu6n: Tdc gid ve tic sd li&u thdng kS cda 62 tinh thdnh
1^ cangnght H g a i i H a H g
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NGHIEN cufu TRAO DOI < « «
H i n h 2: Xu hiidng ttfdng t a c giffa c a c c j p (GDP vdri GTGT, TNDN, TNS)
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Ngudn • Tdc gid biiu dikn td s6 heu thdng kS cda 62 tinh thdnh
B a n g 1: Ket q u a h o i qui ti^cfng q u a n tac d p n g co d i n h LnGDP
LnGTGT LnTNDN LnTNS D l D2 D3 H^ng so' Sigma_u Sigma_e Riio
H& so 0,1003 0,1044 0,1104 0,2699 0,3198 0.1698 4,6612 0,6263 0,1324 0,9404
Sai s6' chuan 0,0137 0,0123 0,0150 0,0142 0,0186 0,0134 0,2006
Gia t r i t 7,30 8,49 7,46 19,00 17,21 11,89 22,75
G i a t r i P > l t l 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000
[95% do tin cay]
0,0733 0,0803 0,0809 0,2419 0,2834 0,1334 4,1677
0,1272 0,1286 0,1399 0,2977 0,3563 0,1862 4,9647
F kiem dinh tat ca uj= 0 . F(GO, 783) = 90,72 R^ • Trong cung nhau (within) = 0,9274
Ngoai cung nhau (between) = 0,8434 TSng the (overall) = 0.7700
Prob> F = 0.000
cifc den tang trtfdng GDP. Tucfng tii Dg cung cho thsLy, vige thay d6i thue TNDN i\S sau nam 2004 cung CO mpt tac dpng tich ciJc den sif tang GDP.
Sif thay ddi thue suat thu^ TNDN nhin chung CO Icfi cho doanh nghidp la viec giam thue suat thud' TNDN t£f 28% xu6'ng 25% da tao diiu kien cho cac cor sof san xuat kinh doanh tich luy v6'n, md rpng san xu^t nang cao canh t r a n h trong h6i nh^lp. Cac doanh nghiep va n h a ddu tif coi viec
gidm thug' sua't la het siJc tich cifc, khuydn khich doanh nghi§p quy^t dinh dau tif va md rpng san xuat - kinh doanh hcfn. Sau cung Dg, cung cho thay mufc dp hieu qua cua tang tnfdng GDP cua Vidt Nam ke tif khi Viet Nam trd thanh thanh vien WTO tuf nam 2007.
Tom lai tCf k e t qua t r e n cho t a n h d n dinh r&ng, cac khoan thue co tac d6ng chi phoi
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d§'n GDP. Mpt muc tidu quan t r p n g cua vi$c cai cdch thue d cdc nifdc la thuc d^y tfing trifdng k i n h t§'. Muc tieu n a y c6 t h ^ d a t diicfc ne'u h# tho'ng thue' mdi sau cdi cdch cd t h i kich thich t d n g t i e t ki^m va ddu tif, gidm chi phi qudn ly thu6'. D6ng t h d i , h^ th6'ng thu§' mdi cung k h o n g gdy ra nhiJng tdc dgng ti§u cifc de'n sif p h a n bo cdc ngu6n lUc. Tfing thu thue' c6 the lam gidm ddu ttf vd t i ^ t ki^m tif n h a n , ldm giam vi^c kinh doanh cua khu vifc tif n h d n . K§'t qud p h d n tich tr§n cho tha'y rdng, nhflng chinh sdch cdi cdch cua Chfnh phu trong nhflng ndm qua da difpc cdc muc tigu t r d n , c6 tdc d^ng tich ctfc d§'n sif t d n g trifdng GDP, day Id dieu ddng mflng trong chinh sdch cdi cdch, cd t i n h k§' thfla vd hodn t h i e n cdc giai doan trudc dd.
MOt di^u cung c^n lifu y la vi?c Vi#t Nam t h a m gia WTO cung c6 tdc dOng tich cifc de'n GDP. Mdc dpng vien thue tfing hay giam se ldm thay dSi sdc chiu difng thue cua n e n k i n h t e , tfl dd cd t h ^ ldm t h a y ddi tfi'c d6 t d n g trfldng k i n h te', hdi vi khi t h a y ddi g a n h n d n g thue' se t a c ddng dS'n h a n h vi tie't k i e m hay tieu dung cua ngfldi nop t h u e , tfl dd a n h hfldng de'n quy mo va toe do dau tfl, kich thich hay kim h a m t a n g trfldng k i n h t^. Cai cdch thug' can t a p t r u n g vdo viec thu h e p nhflng hdp meo cua thue', di doi vdi vi^c md rpng ccf sd thue vd h a t h a p thue suat. Dong thdi, chinh sdch thug' p h a i bao qudt he't td't ca ngudn thu,
cdn dfla vdo dp dung cdc loai t h u ^ mdi de qudn ly nguon thu va n d n g cao vai trd dilu t i ^ t nhfl t h u d tdi sdn, t h u d moi trfldng.
Ccf cd'u cua h§ thd'ng thue* p h d i cd nhflng t h a y ddi t h i c h hcfp cho phu hcfp vdi sfl phdt t r i d n k i n h tg'. T r o n g xu hfldng hdi n h d p , thud d d n h vdo thfltfng m a i qudc td' se giam dan, t h a y vdo dd c h i n h sdch thug' cdn no Iflc gia t d n g thug' t h u n h d p cd n h d n de t a o ngudn thu dn d i n h cho n g d n sdch nhd nfldc. Ddng t h d i thud* GTGT cdn dfltfc t d n g cfldng vd ket h d p vdi thud' tigu t h u ddc b i ^ t de didu tidt sdn xud't - tigu d u n g vd ddm t r d c h tdt vai trd bdo hO sdn x u ^ t t r o n g nfldc. Muc tidu xdy dflng m d t h# t h d n g t h u d t r o n g dieu kipn hOi n h d p , ngodi ygu cdu ve t i n h cdng bdng, hi^u qud ddm bdo ngudn t h u n g d n sdch, cai cdch thue* cdn phdi b d t kip vdi tdc dd tfl do hod thifdng m a i vd ddu tfl, ddm bao su thich flng vdi cdc cam kg't quoc te' vd phu hdp vdi t h d n g 10 quo'c te*.
A n h hfldng cua thue^ d e n t d n g trfldng rat phflc t a p va chi cd t h e difcfc p h a n tich mpt cdch rd r a n g chi khi ndo cd sfl hd t r d cua mpt md h i n h cdn b a n g t d n g t h e day du. Do dieu kien so' lipu cdn h a n che' vd khd k h d n trong t h u t h a p sd' li^u d cac t i n h t h a n h n e n sd lieu mong mudn cho cdc t h d n g tin khdc khong dfltfc cung cd^p ddy du. Ddy c h i n h la gidi han trong n g h i e n cflu cua mo h i n h
Tai l i ^ u t h a m k h a o
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NGHIEN curu TRAO DOI < « «
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10 Lee, y. & Gordon. R. H. (2005). Tax Structure vd Economic Growth. Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 89, pp. 1027-1043.
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