MOT SO PHUONG PHAP DIEU TRA DU" LUAN XA nov
v u THI MINH C n r Dieu tra du luan xa hgi (DLXH) la eupc dieu tra xa hpi hgc mang tinh thong ke, dupe tien hanh nhdm muc dich lam ro xu hudng cua DLXH ve eo cau xa hpi. Day la cuoc dieu tra vdi doi tugng mlu duge chpn ra mpt each ngau nhien eo tuan theo nguyen tac sai so.
Nhung vi du thudng thdy ciia diSu tra DLXH co the neu ra nhu: Dieu tra hang nam ve cac v3n de trong cuoc sdng; Cac dai truyen hinh tien hanh dieu tra bang thang y kien ciia khan gia ve chuong trinh eua minh; Danh gia tin nhiem thu tudng, ting thing,...
Trong dieu tra DLXH, sau khi xac dinh van de can dieu tra tiiy theo muc dich nhu da neu thi phuong phap dieu tra cd le la quan trpng nhat nham dam bao thu dupe ket qua dieu tra ehinh xae. Cho den nay, ngudi ta thudng tiln hanh dilu tra DLXH bdng nhftng phuong phap thong thudng sau day.
1. Phuong phap phong van true tilp
Day la phuong phap tien hanh dieu tra theo hinh thuc phong van trye tiep gifta ngudi di hoi va ngudi duge hoi. Cac dieu tra vien den nha gap true tiep ddi tupng de tien hanh phong vSn true tiep hoae girl bang hol trudc mpt thdi gian de doi tugng phdng van dien sdn, sau do thu hoi bdng phong van. Day la phuong phap pho bien va da cd tu rat lau song vSn dugc ap dung, khong bi thay the hoan toan eho du co nhieu phuong phap mdi khae ra ddi tren co sd eua tien bp ky thuitt, nhat la ky thuat thong tin.
2. Phuong phap phong van qua dien tho^i RDD
Day la phuong phap dieu tra bang hinh thuc gian tiep qua dien thoai co ten viet tat la RDD (tir tiing Anh nguyen ban la Random Digit Dialing: quay si ngdu nhien). Trong phucmg phap nay, mau dugc chpn la cac so dien thoai co dinh dugc Ipe ra bang may tinh, tinh toan rundom number va phong vdn nhftng ngudi nghe may. Cac so dien thoai khong luu trong danh ba cung eo the la doi tupng ebon ngau nhien.
3. Phuong phap phdng van qua internet
Day la mot phucmg phap dilu tra mdi cd tir khi internet phat trien. Vdi sy pho bien eiia viee sd dung internet, gdn day cd nhilu cuoc dieu tra dupe tien hanh qua intemet cd sir dung Propensity Score nhdm giai quylt vdn de lien quan den nhiing ban ehl vl mlu nhu tinh thieu can doi.
Tren day la 3 pbuohg phap dilu fra xa hpi hpc thudng dugc tiln hanh phi biln nhdt trong dilu tra DLXH. Tuy nhien trong qua trinh van dung chiing, ngudi ta eung da nhan thdy mpt so mat ban che eua moi phuong phap khac nhau, cd the neu ra d day nhiing ban chl di8n hinh nhu sau:
' TS.; Vi?n Nghien ciru Con ngutri, Vien Han lam Khoa hoc Xa hpi Viet Nam.
' Bai viit trong khuon kho De tai cdp Nha nuoc KX.03.16/11-15 "Dir luan x§ hpi v^ sir bien do! xS hoi trong cong cuoc dii mat".
Nghien ciiu Con ngudi sd 2(83) 2016 AC
Vn Thf Minh Chi 1) Tinh thieu chinh xdc
D I dam bao tinh chinh xac ciia ket qua dieu tra, ngudi ta van dung cac ly thuyet tinh toan nhu Dinh Iy cue ban trung tam (Central limit theorem) vao viec chpn mdu. Theo dinh ly nay, mot khi ban than tong nhdm dieu tra (sau day gpi la nhdm me) khong phai la tap hpp mang tinh dae thii thi sai so gifta trung binh nhdm mau va trung binh nhom me se bang 0 va nhu vay dp phan tan se nhd tuong duong vdi ngugc so (phan sd) ciia si Iupng mdu.
Tuy nhien tren thye te, so sanh ket qua cac eupc dieu tra khac nhau doi vdi cung mpt van de (npi dung phong van giong nhau) trong eiing mgt thdi diem thi thdy rdng, kit qua van cd sy sai khac, va ddi khi la rat dang ke. Vi du, eac td bao Idn tai Nhat Ban eiing dieu tra ti Ie ung hp cai to npi cae Abe lan thir hai thi cd ket qua nhu sau:
Dieu tra eua Bao Yomiuri cho thay eo 64% ung hp cai td;
Dieu tra cua Bao Nihonkeizai la 60%;
Dieu tra ciia Bao Kyodo la 54,9%, va - Dieu tra eiia Bao Mainichi la 47%.
O day CO the thay rang, sai khae gifta ti le cao nhat va thdp nhdt cua cae kit qua dilu tra len den 17%. Nhu vay khd cd thi bilt dugc kit qua nao la ehinh xae nhdt.
2) Nguyen niidn cua viec thiiu chinh xdc
Tim bilu nguyen nhan cua sy thilu ehinh xac trong kit qua dilu tra DLXH, ngudi ta phat hien thay mot s6 nguyen nhSn tiem dn nhu sau.
Doi vdi cac phuong phap thong thudng nhu phdng vdn true tilp hoae bang hdi, su thieu ehinh xac cd the xay ra trong eae khau nhu:
Chon mdu: Neu khong tiln hanh chpn mdu dai dien ehinh xac, can dii tu ting dii tupng dilu tra (nhdm me) tbi kit qua tdt nhien se thilu chinh xac (dilu nay thi hien qua trudng hpp minh boa ben dudi).
Bien soan hdng hoi: Co nhftng sai sdt trong bien soan bang hoi nhu tuy tien trong npi dung cung nhu thii ty cau hdi ddn tdi nhftng eupc dilu tra mang tinh ddn du du luan dil CO cd y hay khdng.
Xif ly: Ddi vdi nhiing "cau tra ldi map md". "khong tra ldi boac khdng bilu", xd ly khong than trpng de dan tdi viee suy ra (mang tinh thong ke hpc) du luan eiia nhom me se thieu chinh xac.
Doi tuang dieu tra: Ti le tra ldi ciing co thi bi chi phii bdi dii tugng dilu tra. Vi du, mpt ngudi tu ehii dilu tra cua bao nay lai cd thi ding y tra ldi cua bao khac. Dac biet, trong van de chinh tri, ti le tra ldi cua ngudi tra ldi cd thien chi vdi chii thi dilu tra thudng cao va khdng co thien chi thudng thdp bon mot each eye doan. Vi du. Van phdng dai dien cua Tl chuc Amnesty Intemational tai Nhat Ban keu gpi bd an tu hinh da tien hanh phdng vdn cae iing vien tranh cu Ha vien nam 1996, kit qua cho thdy ti Ie tra ldi cua cae ung vien Dang Ty do Dan chu la dang edm quyIn cyc thdp. Nhin chung, ti le tra ldi vdi dieu tra do cae eo quan eong quyIn va truyln thong dai chiing cd Idn tien
4 6 NghiSn cUu Con ngifiif sd 2(83) 2016
Moi so phucmg phdp dieu tra...
hanh tbi cao, song trong trudng hpp ti le tra Idi qua thap thi khong the lay ket qua dd (cua nhirng ngudi tra ldi cd hieu qua) de ap vao toan bp mau.
Chuyen gia to ehue bau cu Miura Hiroshi (Nhat Ban) dua ra nhan xet: Trong pham vi mgt to chuc tien hanh dieu tra, ngay ca khi dieu tra qua thong tin dai chiing thieu ehinh xac nhung neu ket hgp vdi nhieu cupe dieu tra thi van thu dugc ket qua chinh xac cao.
Ddi vdi phuong phap RDD, sy thieu chinh xac cung cd the nay sinh tft tat ca cac khau, nhung dac biet la khSu lien quan den ddi tugng dieu tra.
- Khd dat duge tinh dai dien cua mdu: bo sot rdt nhilu ddi tugng nhu ngudi khong nhdc dien thoai; ngudi it khi co d nha cho dii la hp cd dien thoai el dinh hay khong, tft do de phat sinh sy thieu tinh dai dien cua mlu vl tuli tac va nghl nghiep. NIU thudng xuySn dilu tra trong cimg mot dilu kien thi ed thi so sanh vl mat thdi gian, nhung dl so sanh vl npi dung nhu gifta cac thang chpn lya thi cdn thilt phai gia cong du lieu phii hop vdi ti le tuoi va nghe nghiep trong nhdm me.
So vdi each phong van true tiep tbi cd diem Igi la thirc hien trong thdi gian ngdn, do tdn kem nhung ngugc lai, lai bi gidi han dieu tra d cac hp cd dien thoai cl dinh, nen c6 the se khong the tranh khoi viec loai bd khdi nhdm me mpt si dii tupmg nhu ngudi chi cung cap thdng tin ca nhan trong dieu tra trye tiep, ngudi su dyng dien thoai di dpng ma khong CO dien thoai cd dinh, ngudi thu nhap thap, ngudi dm yeu dang dieu trj trong benh vien, ngudi bi thuong, ngudi nude ngoai, ngudi dpc than di vang, cac ho gia dinh ca hai vg chdng cung di lam vang, tuc la kha nhieu thanh vien cua xa hpi dae biet la nhiing ngudi yeu the, vi the tuy ehu de va each dat eau bdi eo the se sinh ra nhieu thien leeh trong tra ldi.
Nha nghien ciiu lieh sft truyen thong Sato Takumi, GS. Dai hpc Kyoto da dua ra hai van de ban chat eua phuong thuc phdng van qua dien thoai nhu sau:
- Ngudi de dang tra Idi eho cuoc dien thoai dot ngpt, xam pham khdng gian sdng rieng cua minh, rd rang khdng the la dai dien trung binh ciia "dan y";
- Ngudi tra ldi dien thoai ddt ngpt khdng ban da suy nghi day du ve npi dung cau hdi.
Trudng hap minh hoa cho dieu tra DLXH thieu chinh xdc
Mpt vi du vl tfnh thilu chinh xac cua dilu tra DLXH thudng duge neu ra nhu mpt trudng hpp diln binh ehinh la trudng hgp cuoc dieu tra vl kit qua bdu cir Tdng thong d My vao nam 1936 do hai tl ebiie khac nhau tien hanh, do la: td ehue dieu tra DLXH mang ten Gallup (Gallup Organization la ca quan dieu tra DLXH cua My. mot co quan dilu tra du luan mang tinh thuong nghiep. Gallup dac biet ndi tieng vdi cac eupc dieu tra dua ra du bao ve bSu eu tong thong. To chuc nay do nha Tam ly hpe, Thdng ke hpc ngudi My George Horace Gallup (1901-1984) - ngudi da sang tao ra phuong phap dieu tra DLXH mang tinh thing ke thanh lap nam 1935 nhu mot co quan dieu tra DLXH Hoa Ky. To chuc Gallup hien cd van phong dai dien d 30 quoc gia vdi nhieu dieu tra vien lam viec nSng nd, hieu qua. Ket qua dieu tra ciia to chuc nay thudng dugc eong bo tren da so eae phucmg tien truyen thong dai ehung, diing ddu la cac td bao Idn eiia My);
va td tap chi ddy quyIn nang The Literary Digest.
NghiSn cUu Con ngudi s62(83) 2016 ^-j
va Thi Minh Chi
Nam 1936, trong cupe bdu cu tdng thong co hai ling cu vien la Franklin D. Roosevelt Dang Dan chii va Alfred Mossman Landon Dang Cong hda. Td tap chi The Literary Digest sau khi dilu tra DLXH (N= 2,3 trieu ngudi) da dua ra dy bao rdng Roozevelt se thua cupe. Ngugc lai, Vien Gallup dilu tra du luan vdi sd luong it ban nhieu (N=50 nghin ngudi) lai dua ra dy bao Roozevelt se dac cu. Viec dy bao chinh xae da dem lai cho Gallup chiln thdng vang dpi, nang cao uy tin eua to chuc.
CJ day, ed the nhin thay bai ban che eua dieu tra qua trudng hgp that bai ciia The Literary Digest:
(1) The Literary Digest dy bao sai vi da bd qua dac tinh ciia RDD, dieu tra DLXH qua dien thoai, khi dd cdn rat mdi me. Trong giai doan nay, ti Ie bao phii eiia dien thoai mdi chi dat 40%, ehu ylu la cac gia dinh trung luu trd len, vi vay cd mpt chenh lecb Idn ve ti le phd bien so vdi cac tang ldp khac. Nhiing ngudi iing hp Dang Cong hoa phan Idn la ngudi giau cd, vi the dieu tra da dem lai phan tich dft lieu cd lpi eho iing cu vien Landon.
(2) Graham Walden da chi ra tinh thieu dai dien eiia ket qua dieu tra do tap ehi The Literary Digest tien hanh la do trong sd 10 trieu ngudi duge phong van ehi ed 2,3 trieu ngudi tra ldi hpp le. Hon nfta, tinh thieu dai dien ciia mau cdn nam d su thien lech trong t3ng ldp ngudi tra ldi da phan deu d phe dang bao thii, la tang ldp dpc gia eua tap chi The Literary Digest. Chinh vi vay cd the noi sai lam la do tinh thieu dai dien eiia mau hon la do thieu than trpng khi su dyng phuong phap RDD dieu tra qua dien tho£ii (khi dp bao phu mdi chi la 40%).
Ve dieu tra qua internet, mac du la mpt phucmg phap mdi, sinh ra trong boi canh cua khoa hpc thong tin co uu diem la nhanh gpn ve thdi gian song phuong phap nay ciing khong tranh khdi cd ban che nhat dinh liSn quan den viee chpn mau. Va mae dii da tim each khac phuc ban ehe trong khau nay (chpn mau), song khi so sanh ket qua diSu tra ciia phuong phap thong thudng (phdng van true tiep) vdi dieu tra qua intemet (Bp Ndi vu Nhat Ban) ngudi ta nhan thay van cd sy khac nhau. Vi the, phuong phap nay khd cd the thay the phuong phap thong thudng (phdng van trye tiep) cho dii su pho b'lBn ciia internet ngay mpt gia tang.
4. Phuong phap dieu tra du luan xa hpi thong qua thao luan
Mpt trong nhirng co gang di tim mpt phuong phap dieu tra mdi, khac phue nhiing ban ehe eua cac phucmg phap da cd nham tien den tiep can mpt cuoc dieu tra DLXH thye sy, dd la li do ra ddi ciia phuong phap dilu tra theo mo hinh thao luan.
Deliberative poll (DP) la ten gpi cua phuong phap mdi nay, khae vdi dieu tra DLXH thdng thudng d ehd: khong chi dilu tra y kiln mpt each hinh thuc trong gidi ban mpt lan, ma sau khi eho nhftng ngudi tra ldi (dii tugng dilu tra) Ihao luSn ky qua eac cupe thao Iuan nhom nho va toan the tren co sd nhan dupe tu lieu thao luan va thdng tin day du tft cac chuyen gia, lai tien hanh dilu tra mpt idn nfta, rdi tft do xem xet sy bien ddi ve y kien va thai dp ctia ngudi tra Idi nhu mpt eupc thue nghiem xa hpi.
Day la phuong an do giao su dai hpc Stanford James S Fishikin va dai hpc Texas Robert C Luskin tien hanh thue nghiem idn ddu tien d Anh vao nam 1994. Tft dd den
Nghien cuu Con ngudi so 2(83) 2016
Mdt sd phuang phdp dieu tra...
nay, trai qua 20 n5m, DP da lan rpng, dugc ap dung d gan 30 nude vdi 22 ngdn ngft khac nhau.
Bdi canh ra ddi: Nhin ehung, mpi ngudi trong eupc song hang ngay cd qua nhieu vi€c can suy nghi, vi thi ddi vdi cac van de chinh sach cdng, con ngudi thudng d trong trang thai khdng ed thdng tin day dii. Vdi tinh trang nay, hg khd dua ra dugc quyet dinh ve y kien va thai do ro rang doi vdi nhftng van de to Idn nhu chinh saeh cdng (Day khong phai la van de dang phe phan, theo phan tich eua eac nha kinh te hpc tbi do la dieu hgp ly).
Nham khac phyc tinh trang khd tra Idi vi khong cd thdng tin ddy dii, dilu tra qua thao luan DP ra ddi va thudng dugc ap dung doi vdi eae eupc dieu tra du luan xung quanh nhiing v&n de lien quan tdi chinh sach cong. Hon nfta, dSy eung la mpt sy no lyc nhdm tim ra cau tra ldi thyc chung cho van de: khi thao luan vdi nhiing ngudi khac tren ca sd thong tin day du tbi y kien va lya ebon eua mpi ngudi se thay ddi (hoae khong thay ddi) nhu the nao. Hpi thao thao luan ky tren eo sd ed thong tin day dii, gifta nhiing ngudi tham gia dupe chgn Iua mpt each ngau nhien, gpi la microcosm (ban do thu nho ciia xa hpi), eo the ndi rat hiiu ich cho viec can nhae dua ra chinh saeh eong.
Phuang thuc: Dieu tra DLXH theo md hinh thao luan DP gdm hai phan: mot la dieu tra DLXH thong thudng va hai la hpi thao.
Budc 1: Tien hanh dieu tra DLXH ddi vdi so lugng doi tugng dugc chpn ngau nhien tft nhdm tong the (nhdm me), vi du DP ca nude thi chpn ra 3000 ngudi tren ca nude.
Cho din day thi khdng ed gi khac vdi dieu tra DLXH thong thudng, nhung ti^p theo thi . khac theo qua trinh dudi day.
Budc 2: Trong sd nhiing ngudi da tra Idi cuoc dieu tra, Iai chpn ra nhiing ngudi the hien su sdn sang tham gia thao luan (vi du khoang 300 ngudi). Tiep den, gui cho hp tai lieu cdn thilt va ngdn gpn ve chu de se thao luan va yeu cau hp nghien ciru trude. Tu lieu thao luan nay tdm luge ngan gpn mot vai kien giai ddi lap vdi nhiing diem tranh cai, va dugc gidi thieu mgt each cdng bang, khaeh quan tren co sd the hien eac luan cu va tu lieu gle nhdm lam cho hp ed duge nhiing hudng dan tft nhdm cac chuyen gia ve chu dl thao luEin. Tilp theo, dl nghj nhftng ngudi tham gia hpi thao din d tap trung mot noi trong ba ngay eudi tuan. Trong hpi thao, dau tien se tien hanh dieu tra bang hdi.
Tilp theo se tiln hanh thao luan nhdm, vdi moi nhdm chimg 15 den 20 ngudi dudi sy chu tri ciia ngudi hudng ddn da dupe hudn luyen ky de hieu dupe rd npi dung ehii yeu eua thye nghiem. Sau dd se tao eo hpi chdt van chi tiet vdi eae chuyen gia am hieu van dl thao Iuan va nhiing nha Ifip chinh saeh (d Anh, Uc la bp trudng, chinh trj gia cua cae chinh dang, cdn d My la ung cu vien ting thong). Cac eupc thao luan nhdm va thao luan ting the dugc lap di lap lai nhilu idn.
Budc 3: Cuoi eung, lai tiln hanh cuoc dilu tra DLXH thdng thudng bang bang hdi gilng vdi bang hdi da tien hanh liic ban ddu. Tft do ed thi thdy, dugc trai qua qua trinh trude va sau thao luan, y kien cua ngudi tham gia thao luan da thay ddi (hoae khong thay ddi) nhu the nao qua ket qua hai cupe dilu tra.
Nghien ciiu Con ngudi so 2(83) 2016 4g
Vii Thi Minh Chi
Nhirng vdn de thdo ludn dd duac su dung trong phuang phdp DP tren the gidi Phuong thue DP dugc su dung trong dieu tra DLXH d mpt so nude tren the gidi rat da dang. Trong so eac van de Uen quan den chinh sach chung rpng rai, DP thudng hay dupe su dung ddi vdi nhiing chinh sach gay tranh eai. Sau day la mpt trong sd dd:
Tri an va tdi pham (nam 1994, d Anh);
Chinh saeh nang lugng (nam 1996 - 1999, bang Texas My);
B3.U cu (nam 1997, d Anh; nam 2004, tren toan nude My qua online);
Bd phieu toan dan ddi vdi chu truong chuyen sang che dp cdng hoa (nam 1999, Uc);
Che dp bao hiem sue khde toan dan (nam 1998, Anh);
Bd phieu toan dan ddi vdi ehii trucmg ddng Eur (nam 2000, Dan Maeh);
Kinh te khu vye (nam 2002, bang Texas, My);
Chiln tranh Iraq (nam 2003, My);
Bau cu tdng thong (nam 2004, tren toan nude My qua online);
Chinh sach dan tpe (nam 2005, Hungary, Bulgaria);
Tuong lai Chau An (nam 2007, toan EU);
Chinh sach ddi vdi dan di cu (nam 2007, Y);
Chinh sach nha d (nam 2008, Bang California, My).
Ddc diem cua phucmg thuc dieu tra theo md hinh thdo ludn
Phuong thuc dieu tra du luan theo md hinh thao Iuan DP dugc tien hanh tren co sd chpn mau dai dien cho nhdm me nen khong chi cd nhiing ngudi cd nguyen vpng tich eye tham gia, ma cd the bao gom ea tang ldp tre it tham gia bd phieu, cd the ndi la cSu thanh mdt xa hpi thu nhd.
Hon nfta trong hinh thiic dieu tra nay, van de thao luan la chinh saeh eong, cac thdng tin la kien thfte eua cac chuySn gia da dugc bien soan Iai cho muc dich thao luan, vi the ngudi tham gia khdng chi hieu van de mot each hinh thdc be ndi ma cd the the hien duge y chi cua minh tren eo sd da hieu biet va can nhdc ki, vdi quan dilm mang tinh lau dai. Nhiing dieu nay da dugc the hien ro qua kit qua thyc nghidm d cac nude tren the gidi.
Tuy nhien phuang phap nay ciing cd mdt nhugc dilm Idn nhdt la mdt thdi gian va kha ton kem ve ngan sach.
Thay Idi kit
Ket qua khao sat cae phuong phap dieu tra DLXH trong bai nay eho thay eac phuong phap dupe su dung trong dieu tra DLXH ben eanh nhftng uu dilm thudng di doi vdi nhftng ban ehe nhat dinh, vi vay khd cd thi thay thi eho cac phuong phap da cd bdng mpt phuong phdp mdi. Va eiing chinh vi vay, mot trong nhiing dilu quan trpng dii vdi mpt eupc dieu tra DLXH la xac dinh rd nhung uu nhugc dilm cua cac phuang phap de CO the chpn lya phucmg phap phu hpp nhdt vdi muc dich va dii tugng dilu tra. Ciing cd the chpn ket hgp mot so phuang phap vdi nhau nhdm bl khuylt, loai trft ban chl. Cd nhu vay mdi dam bao cho eupc dilu tra DLXH thu dupe kit qua dang tin cay.
5 0 NghienciiU ConngUdiso 2(83) 2016