38 SO 03-2019 CHAU Mi NGAY NAY
QUAN HE QU6C T i
VIET NAM TRONG TAM NHIN CHIEN LlTOC MO^I CUA CHINH QUYEN DONALD TRUMP
Nguyen Ha Trang*
Tom tit: Chinh quyen cua Tdng thing Donald Trump dd tie chd "xoay true " trd ve chdu A - Thdi Binh Ducmg din thuc hien kien tgo mdt "An Bg Duong - Thdi Binh Duong tu do vd rgng md" di duy tri tdm dnh hu&ng vd su hien dien ciia minh tai khu vuc, thdng qua dd cd thi kiem che Trung Qudc. Trong bdi cdnh chien luge dd, Viet Nam dugc ddnh gid la mdt nhdn to cd nhieu y nghia, cd vi tri chien luge, chia se nhieu led ich chung. Id mdt "ddi tdc" tiem ndng vd trien vgng. Viet Nam dugc nhdc den hai Idn trong bdn Chien luge an ninh qudc gia ciia Hoa Ky, v&i vj tri Id "dang tr& thanh ddi tdc an ninh vd kinh te "
Tir khoa: Viet Nam, Donald Trump, tam nhin chien lugfc...
N
gay khi len cam quySn, Tong thong Donald Tramp da co nhiing dieu chinh trong tu duy chien lirgc, qua do Hoa Ky da co sir sap xep l^i cac thii tu uu tien trong chinh sach doi ngoai, va khu virc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong tro nen noi bSt, duoe xSp cr vi tri dau tien tren co so nhan thurc nhung loi ich chien lucre to l<jn tir khu vuc nay dfli vdi Hoa Yi^. Nhung danh gia t6ng the ve y nghia chiSn luge cua khu vuc noi chung va Viet Nam noi rieng dS tao ra mot nen tang quan trpng cho su dinh vi Viet Nam trong t&n nhin chi6n luoc cua Hoa Ky. D6i vod Hoa Ky, viec phat trita quan he viii Viet Nam nhu la mpt CO SOT quan trpng cho su hien dien lau dai, 6n djnh o khu vuc nay, va do do Viet Nam trcr thanh mot "doi tac" kinh tk va an ninh rdt duac quan tam.1. Khu vyc "An Do Dvong - Thai Binh Dirong" - t^m nhin chien Ivgc mdi ciia chinh quyen Tong thong Donald Trump
TSng th6ng Donald Trump khong phai la nguoi diu tien noi dSn khai niem
"An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong" ma trudrc do, mpt' so quoc gia va cac chinh quySn tiSn nhiem cua Hoa Ky cung da nhic d6n y tuong nay. thuSt ngu "An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong" dupe dua ra ISn diu boi Tito si Gurpreet Khurana, Giam d6c Quy Hang hai Qu6c gia tai New Delhi, An Dp trong mpt bai luan nam 2007 voi tira de "An ninh hang hai: Triln vpng hpp tac An Dp - Nh?t Ban". Tien si Khurana da lap luan ring cac lpi ich chung va c6t loi cua An D6 va NhJit Ban vS hang hai se kho co thi dupe bao dam nlu An Do Duong va
• Bgi hgc Thii Ddu Mgt
CHAUMY NGAY NAY 39 Thai Binh Duong bi chia re trong nhan
thijc chiln lupc. Dto ddn, thuat ngO nay dupe mpt s6 cucmg quoc, nhdt la Nhat Ban, An Dp, Australia va Hoa Ky sir dung mpt each chinh thiic dl mieu ta cau tnic dia chinh tri mod a khu virc.
Doi v&i Hoa Ky, An Dp Duong idn dau tien dupe chinh quyen cua Tong thong G. Bush nhac toi vao nam 2002;
trong Chien lupc An ninh qupc gia nam 2002, chinh quyen G. Bush khang dinh Hoa Ky vd An Do deu cd mdi quan tdm chung ve cdc con dudng thucmg mgi tu dg tren bien tgi An Do Ducmg vd Thdi Binh Duan^. Tai Honolulu, nam 2010, Ngoai trudng Hillary Rodham Clinton da phat bilu: "CS Dong Nam A va Thai Binh Duong, chiing toi dang thay doi su hien di?n cua minh ... nhu da gia tang sir hifin di?n cua hai quan tai Singapore, tang cucmg cac hoat dpng vol Philippines va Thai Lan nhim nang cao kha nSng chong khiing b6, tao ra cac ca sd hop tac quan su vod New Zeland, dfing thoi hien dai hoa cac m6i quan he vdi Australia de ung phd vdi mdt moi trudng hang hai ngay cang phiic tap; md rpng pham vi hpp tac vdi hai quan An Dp d Thai Binh Duong vi nhan thiic dupe tam quan trpng cua khu vuc "An Dp Ducmg - Thai Binh Duong" ddi vdi thuang mai toan cdu" va con nhdn manh viec "dang md rpng moi quan he lien minh vdi Australia tir ddi tac Thai Binh Duang din ddi tac "An Dp Duong - Thai Bmh Duong" va la ddi tac toan cau" . Thuat ngO An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong
lan dau tien da duoe mpt quan chiic cap cao Hoa Ky sii dung va khang dinh
"chiing ta (Hoa Ky) hieu tam quan trpng cua luu vuc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Ducmg doi vdi giao thuang toan cau."
Chinh quyen cita cira Tong thong B.
Obama da rdt tich cue loi keo An Dp vao trong chien luac tai can bang ap dung cho khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duong''; va nhan manh chit traong dl Nhat Ban, An Dp va Austraha cung tham gia chien lupc tai can bang tren pham vi khu vuc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong md rpng^.
Tuy nhien, chi den khi khai niem nay dupe su dung bdi chinh quyen Trump trong phan md ddu bai phat bilu tai Diln dan Hpp tac Kinh t l chau A - Thai Binh Duong (APEC) diln ra tai Da NSng vao thang 11/2017 bing viec bay to sir vinh hanh duoe "hien dien tai Viet Nam - trai tim cila khu vuc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Ducmg" cung nhu viec Uen tuc sir dung thuat ngtt nay nhu cd ham y ve chien luac mdi cita Hoa K^
d khu •vuc van thudng dupe biet den la Chau A - Thai Binh Duong thi thuat ngir nay miii thuc su trd nen noi tieng va thu hut su chii y tren toan the gidi.
Sau chuyen cong du Chau A cua Tong thdng Donald Tramp, Nha Trang va Ldu Nam Gdc da cdng bo lan luat
"Chiln luac An ninh Qudc gia" va
"Chien lupc Qudc phong" vao cudi nam 2017 va dau nam 2018, qua dd khang dinh "An Dp Ducmg - Thai Bmh Duong quan trpng doi vdi su dn djnh, an ninh
38 SO 03-2019 CHAU MY NGAYNAY.
QUAN HE QU6C T i
VIET NAM TRONG TAM NHIN CHIEN LlTOC MOfI CUA CHINH QUYEN DONALD TRUMP
Nguyen Hi Trang*
Tom t i t : Chinh quyen ciia Tong thdng Donald Trump dd lie chd "xoay true " trd ve chdu A - Thdi Binh Duong din thirc hien kien tgo mdt "An Do Ducmg - Thdi Binh Duong tu do vd rdng md" de duy tri tdm dnh hu&ng vd su hien dien ciia minh tgi khu vuc, thdng qua dd cd the kiem che Trung Qudc. Trong bdi cdnh chien luge dd, Vi^t Nam dugc ddnh gid la mgt nhdn td cd nhieu y nghia, cd vi tri chien luge, chia se nhieu Igi ich chung, Id mgt "ddi tdc" tiem ndng vd trien vong. Viet Nam dugc nhdc den hai Idn trong bdn Chien luge an ninh qudc gia ciia Hoa Ky, v&i vi tri la "dang trd thanh ddi tdc an ninh vd kinh te "
Tif kJioa; Viet Nam, Donalci Trump, tam nhin chiln lupc...
N
gay khi len cam quyen, Tdng thdng Donald Tramp da cd nhihig dieu chinh trong tu duy chien lupc, qua dd Hoa Ky da cd su sSp xep lai cac thii tu uu tien trong chinh sach ddi ngoai, va khu vuc An Dp Ducmg - Thai Binh Duong trd nen noi bat, duoe xep d vi tri dau tien tren co sd nhan thiic nhiing lai ich chien luoc to Idn tir khu vuc nay ddi vdi Hoa Ky. NhiJng danh gia tdng thi ve y nghia chien luac cua khu "VUC ndi chung va Viet Nam ndi rieng da tao ra mpt nen tang quan trpng cho sir dinh vi Viet Nam trong tam nhin chiln luge cua Hoa Ky. Ddi vtji Hoa Ky, viec phat trien quan h6 vdi Viet Nam nhu la mpt ca sd quan trpng cho sir hien dien lau dai, dn dinh d khu vuc nay, va do dd Viet Nam trd thanh mdt "doi tac" kinh t l va an ninh rdt dupe quan tam.1. Khu vyc "An Do Dirong - Thai Binh Dirong" - tam nhin chiln luge mdi ciia chinh quyln Tong thSng Donald Trump
Tdng thdng Donald Trump khdng phai la ngudi dau tien ndi din khai ni?m
"An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong" ma trade dd, mdt' sd qudc gia va cac chinh quyln tiln nhiSm cua Hoa Ky ciing dS nhac den -y tudng nay. Thuat ngtt "An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong" dugc dua ra idn ddu bdi Tiln st Gurpreet Khurana, G i t o ddc Quy Hang hai Qudc gia tai New Delhi, An Do trong mpt bai luan nam 2007 vdi tua de "An ninh hang hai: Triln vpng hpp tac An Dp - Nhat Ban".' Tiln si Khurana da Ijp luan ring cac Igi ich chung va cdt loi ciia An D6 va Nhat Ban v l hang hai se khd cd thi dupe bao dam nlu An Dg Duong va
• Bgi hoc Thii Dau Mgt
CHAU My NGAY NAY S6 03-2019 Thai Binh Duong bi chia re trong nhan thiic chien luge. Ddn ddn, thuat ngtt nay dupe mdt sd cudng qudc, nhdt la Nhat Ban, An Dp, AustraUa va Hoa Ky su dung mpt each chinh thirc dl mieu ta cdu tnic dia chinh tri mdi d khu vuc.
Ddi v&i Hoa Ky, An Dp Duong idn ddu tien dupe chinh quyln cua Tdng thdng G. Bush nhdc tdi vao nam 2002;
trong Chien lupc An ninh qudc gia nam 2002, chinh quyln G. Bush khdng dinh Hoa Ky vd An Do deu cd mdi quan tdm chung ve cdc con dudng thuong mgi tu dg tren bien tgi An Do Ducmg vd Thdi Binh Duong'. Tai Honolulu, nam 2010, Ngoai tradng Hillary Rodham Clinton da phat bieu: "O Ddng Nam A va Thai Binh Ehrang, chiing toi dang thay ddi su hien dien cua minh ... nhu da gia tang su hien dien cita hai quan tai Singapore, tang cudng cac hoat ddng vdi Philippines va Thai Lan nham nang cao kha nang chong khiing bd, tao ra cac ca sd hpp tac quan su vdi New Zeland, ddng thdi hien dai hda cac mdi quan he vdi Australia de ling phd vdi mdt mdi tradng hang hai ngity cang phiic tap; md rdng pham vi hpp tac vdi hai quan An Dp d Thai Binh Duong vi nhan thiic dupe tam quan trgng cua khu vuc "An Dp Duong - Thai Bmh Ducmg" ddi vdi thuang mai toan cau" va cdn nhan manh viec "dang md rpng mdi quan he lien minh vdi Australia tir ddi tac Thai Binh Duong din ddi tac "An Dp Duong - Thai B'lnh Duong" va la doi tac toan cau" . Thuat ngil- An Dp Duang - Thai Binh Duong
lan dau tien da dugc mdt quan chiic CEip cao Hoa Ky sii dung va khang dinh
"chiing ta (Hoa Ky) hieu tam quan trpng cita luu vuc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong ddi vdi giao thuong toan cau."
Chinh quyen cua cuu Tdng thdng B.
Obama da rat tich cue loi keo An Dp vao trong chien luge tai can bang ap dung cho khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duong ; va nhan manh chii truong de Nhat Ban, An Dp va Australia ciing tham gia chien luge tai can bang tren pham vi khu vuc An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong md rpng^.
Tuy nhien, chi den khi khai ni$m nky dugc sir dung bdi chinh quyln Trump trong phan md dau bai phat bieu tai Diln dan Hgp tac Kinh te chau A - Th4i Binh Duong (APEC) dien ra tai Da Nang vao thang 11/2017 bang viec bay td su vinh hanh dugc "hien dien tai Viet Nam trai tim ciia khu "vuc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong" cung nhu viec lien tuc sir dung thuat ngu nay nhu cd ham y ve chien luge mdi ciia Hoa Ky d khu vyc van thudng dugc biet den la Chau A - Thai Binh Duong thi thuat ngil nay mdi thuc sy trd nen noi tieng va thu hiit sy chii y tren toan the gidi.
Sau chuyen cdng du Chau A cua Tdng thdng Donald Tramp, Nha Trang va Ldu Nam Gdc da cdng bd lan lugt
"Chiln luge An ninh Qudc gia" va
"Chiln luge Qudc phdng" vao cudi nSm 2017 va dau nam 2018, qua dd khing dinh "An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong quan trpng ddi vdi sy dn dinh, an ninh
38 S 6 03-2019 CHAU MY NGAYNAY.
QUAN HE QU6C Tfe
VIET NAM TRONG TAM NHIN CHIEN LlTOC M 6 I CUA CHINH QUYEN DONALD TRUMP
NguySn Ha Trang*
Tom tit: Chinh quyen cita Tdng thdng Donald Trump dd tie chd "xoay true " trd ve chdu A - Thdi Binh Ducmg den thuc hien kien tgo mdt "An Do Ducmg - Thdi Binh Duang tu do vd rdng m&" de duy tri tdm dnh hu&ng vd su hien dien ciia minh tgi khu vuc, thdng qua do cd the kiem che Trung Qudc. Trong bdi cdnh chien luge dd, Viet Nam dugc ddnh gid Id mgt nhdn td cd nhieu y nghia, cd vi tri chien luge, chia se nhieu Igi ich chung. Id mdt "ddi tdc" tiem ndng vd trien vgng. Viet Nam dugc nhdc den hai Idn trong bdn Chiin luge an ninh qudc gia eda Hoa Ky, v&i vi tri la "dang trd thanh dot tdc an ninh vd kinh te ".
Tir khoa: Viet Nam, Donald Tramp, tam nhin chiln luge...
N
gay khi len cam quyen, Tdng thdng Donald Tramp da cd nhimg dieu chinh trong tu duy chiln luge, qua dd Hoa Ky da cd sy sap xIp lai cac thir ty uu tien trong chinh sach ddi ngoai, va khu vyc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong trd nen ndi bat, dugc xIp d vi tri dau tien tren ca sd nhan thirc nhimg Igi ich chien luge to Idn tir khu -vuc nay doi vdi Hoa Ky. NhiJng danh gia tong thi v l y nghia chien luge ciia khu vyc ndi chung va Viet Nam ndi rieng da tao ra mdt nen tang quan trpng cho sy dinh vi Viet Nam trong tdm nh'm chiln luge cua Hoa Ky. Ddi vdi Hoa Ky, viec phat triln quan he vdi Viet Nam nhu la mpt CO sd quan trpng cho sy hien dien lau dai, dn dinh d khu -vyc nay, va do dd Viet Nam trd thanh mdt "ddi tac" kinh te va an ninh rdt dugc quan tam.1. Khu vyc "An Do Diromg - Thai Binh Dirong" - tam nhin chiln lirgrc mdi ciia chinh quyen Tong thong Donald Trump
Tdng thdng Donald Tramp khdng phai la ngudi dau tien ndi den khai niem
"An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong" ma trudc dd, mpt' sd qudc gia va cac chinh quyln tiln nhiem cua Hoa Ky cung dS nhac den y tudng nay. ThuSt ngft "An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong" dupe dua ra lan dau bdi Tiln si Gurpreet Khurana, Giam ddc Quy Hang hai Qudc gia tai New Delhi, An Dp trong mpt bai luan nam 2007 vdi tya de "An ninh hang hai: Triln vpng hgp tac An Dp - Nhat Ban".' Tiln si Khurana da lap luan ring cac lpi ich chung va cdt loi ciia An Dd va Nhat Ban ve hang hai se khd cd thi dugc bao dam neu An Dp Ducmg va
• Bgi hgc Thu Ddu Mql
CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 03-2019 39 Thai Binh Duong bi chia re trong nhan
thiic chiln luge. Ddn ddn, thuat ngft nay dugc mdt sd cucmg qudc, nhdt la Nhat Ban, An Do, Austtalia va Hoa Ky su dyng mpt each chinh thiic dl mieu ta cdu tnic dia chinh tri mdi d khu vyc.
Ddi v&i Hoa Ky, An Dp Duong idn dau tien dugc chinh quyln ciia Tong thdng G. Bush nhdc tdi vao nam 2002;
trong Chien luge An nmh qudc gia nam 2002, chinh quyln G. Bush khing djnh Hoa Ky vd An Do deu cd mdi quan tdm chung ve cdc con du&ng thucmg mgi tu do tren bien tgi An Dd Dugng vd Thdi Binh Duon^. Tai Honolulu, nam 2010, Ngoai tradng HiUary Rodham Clinton da phat bieu: "d Ddng Nam A va Thai Binh Duong, chiing tdi dang thay ddi sy hien dien ciia minh ... nhu da gia tang sy hien dien cua hai quan tai Singapore, tang cucmg cac hoat ddng vdi Philippines va Thai Lan nhSm nang cao kha nang ehdng khiing bd, tao ra cac co sd hpp tac quan sy vdi New Zeland, ddng thdi hien dai hda cac mdi quan h? vdi Australia de ung phd vdi mpt mdi tracmg hang hai ngay cang phire tap; md rpng pham vi hpp tac vdi hai quan An Dp d Thai Binh Ducmg vi nhan thiic dupe tam quan trpng ciia khu vyc "An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong" ddi vdi thuang mai toan cdu" va cdn nhdn manh viec "dang md rpng mdi quan he lien minh vdi Australia tir ddi tac Thai Binh Duong din ddi tac "An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong" va la ddi tac toan cau" . Thuat ngft An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duang
lan dau tien da dugc mdt quan chiic cap cao Hoa Ky su dung va khing dinh
"chiing ta (Hoa Ky) hieu tam quan trgng cua luu vyc An Dp Duang - Thai Binh Ducmg ddi vdi giao thuang toan cau."
Chinh quyln cita cyu Tdng thdng B.
Obama da rat tich cyc idi keo An Dp vao trong chien luge tai can bdng ap dung cho khu vyc chau A - Thai Binh Ducmg ; va nhan manh chii traong dl Nhat Ban, An Dp va Australia ciing tham gia chien luge tai can bang tren pham vi khu vyc An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong md rdng'.
Tuy nhi6n, chi den khi khai niem nay dugc sir dung bdi chinh quyen Trump trong phan md dau bai phat bieu tai Diln dan Hgp tac Kinh t l chau A - Thai Binh Duong (APEC) dien ra tai Da Ning vao thang 11/2017 bang viec bay td sy vinh hanh dugc "hien dien tai Viet Nam - trai tim ciia khu •vuc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong" cung nhu viSc lien tuc sii dung thujt ngft nay nhu cd ham y ve chien lupc mdi ciia Hoa Ky d khu vyc vdn thuimg dupe bilt din la Chau A - Thai Binh Duong thi thuat ngft nay mdi thye sy trd nen ndi tieng va thu hut sy chii y tren toan the gidi.
Sau chuyin cdng du Chau A ciia Tdng thdng Donald Tramp, Nhit Tring va Ldu Nam Gdc da cdng bd idn lugt
"Chiln luge An ninh Qudc gia" va
"Chiln luge Qudc phdng" vao cudi nam 2017 va dau nam 2018, qua do khing djnh "An Dp Duang - Thai Binh Duong quan trpng ddi vdi sy dn djnh, an ninh
40 SO 03-2019 CHAU MY NGAY NAV va thjnh vupng cua Hoa Ky"'; va hai
yeu td chinh dugc neu ro trong quan diem ciia chinh quyen Trump tgi khu vuc An Do Duang - Thdi Binh Duang Id "tu do" vd "rgng md":' Khai niem An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong ty do va rdng md (FOIP) da md rpng pham vi dja ly cua chien luge de bao gdm ca An Dp Duong va thua nhan vai trd ma An Dp cd the nam gift trong kien tnic dja chien luge dang bien ddi cua khu vyc.
An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong, dang ndi len nhu la khu vyc dja chinh trj nang dpng nhat the gidi. Cd the ndi day la khu vyc da dang nhat, bao gdm han ba mucfi qudc gia la luc dja, ban dao, va quan dao, bao gdm hang chuc ngan hon dao cd ngudi d, va bao gdm phan Icin cac d£ii duong Thai Binh Duong va An Dp, cung nhu cac vimg biin trong ciia chau A; chiem 44% dien tich be mgt the gi&i vd 65% ddn so the gi&i (bao gdm cd hai qudc gia ddng ddn nhdt the gi&i la An Do vd Trung Qudc), ddng gdp 62% GDP the gi&i vd 46% thucmg mgi hdng hoa the gi&f, bao gdm cac nen kinh te hang dau ciia Trung Qudc, Nhat Ban va Han Qudc. Khu vyc cung sd hftu mdt lye lugng quan sy Idn nhat va phat triln nhdt tren the gidi, bao gdm ca Trung Qudc, Bic Trieu Tien, Han Qudc, An Do cung nhu ba cudng qudc hat nhan dugc cdng bd (khdng tinh Hoa Ky va Nga).
Nhin chung, khai niem "An Dd Duang - Thai Binh Duong" cua Hoa Ky, xet vl pham vi la khu -vyc An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong bit ddu tir
"ba Tay An Do tdi bd Tay Hoa Ky"' Khdng gian biin ndi lien hai dai duong ddng vai trd quan trgng trong viec van chuyin dau md, khi ddt, va hiing hoa trSn thi gidi. Day la nai cd hai eo biin quan trpng nhdt vdi tuyen van chuyin ddu mo tu Tmng Ddng tdi Australia va Ddng A.
Ty do luu thdng tren bien thye sy cd y nghia. Thdng qua cac tuyen dudng biin chiln luge, hdng ndm cd khodng 75.000 ldu di chuyen qua khu vuc noi chdu A vdi Trung Dong vd chdu Au ; udc tinh inoi ngay cd khodng 17 trieu thiing ddu dugc vdn chuyen qua eo bien Hgrmuz vd 15,5 trieu thiing qua eo Malacca tuang duang 30% vd 26% tdng lugng ddu van chvyen bdng duang bien tren the gi&i ; khoang 50%i lugng giao thucmg qudc te di qua An Dd Duong - TTidi Binh Duang, dgc biet Id qua Bien Dong trao ddi thuang mgi hai chieu gida Hoa Ky vd khu virc An Dg Duang - Thai Binh Duang hdng ndm & mire 1,4 nghin ty USD}^ Mat khac, day cung la vimg cd nhieu cudp bien trong khi nang lye hang hai ciia cac nude trong khu vyc van cdn han ehl, vi vay, viec dam bao an ninh cho tuyen huyet mach cua kinh t l thi gidi dugc cac qudc gia dac biet quan tam.
Cung vdi nhirng Igi thi va tilm nang v l kinh t l va chinh trj, khu -vyc An Dp Duong Thai Binh Duong dugc danh gia la trung tam kinh t l toan cau, phat triln nhanh nhdt thi gidi.
Tam quan trpng ciia khu vyc ndi chung ddi vdi Hoa Ky da ting len mpt each dang k l khi han 17 trieu ngudi MJ la
CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 03-2019 41 nhirng ngudi nhap cu tu chau A hoSc
cd lien quan din chau A, chilm 5,6%
dan sd ; ngoai ra hang tram ngan ngudi Trang Qudc, An Dp, Han Qudc, va Nhat Ban hgc tap hoac lam viec tai Hoa Ky, va cac kit ndi ca sd vdi chau A chua bao gid manh me han. Thucmg mai vdi khu vyc dat gia tri gdn gdp ddi so vdi chau Au.'
Tai khu •vyc, Hoa Ky cd 5 ddng minh trayen thdng (Nhat Ban, Han Qudc, AustraUa, Thailand, Philippines) va mdi quan he chat che vdi cac qudc gia khac cung la nhimg Igi I'ch quan trpng cua Hoa Ky. Sy hien dien cita Hoa Ky tai khu •vyc da bat dau vdi Bp Tu lenh Thai Binh Duong Hoa Ky (USPACOM) va gdn day vdo thdng 5/2018, Bd Tu l^nh Thdi Binh Duang dugc ddi ten thanh Bd Tu l§nh An Do Duang Thdi Binh Duang Hga Ky (USINDOPACOM)", Bd Tu lenh IGidng quan Thai Binh Duong (PACAF) vdi lye lupng khdng quiin, thiiy quan luc chien hang tram tau va may bay chiln ddu, true thang va tau van tai cimg vdi cac can cii quan sy dac biet la d Nhat Ban, Guam, Han Qudc, Philippines, Hoa Ky da duy tri sy hien dien lien tyc dl bao v? Igi ich ciia minh, dong minh vh on dinh khu •vyc. Cac ddng minh la nhan td quan trpng, khdng thi thilu d l giup duy tri sy can bing quyln luc mpt each thuan Igi trong khu vyc. Ben canh dd, Hoa Ky cung cdn phat triln mdi quan h? gdn gfti htm vdi cac ddng minh mdi va cac ddi tac tiem nang khac va trong boi canh dd, vai trd
ciia ASEAN va An Dp ngay citng dugc de cao. An Dp cung nhu cac qudc gia d Ddng Nam A cd the lit cac ddi tac cd gia trj trong viec md rdng hgp tac hang hai khu vyc, tft do cd the dan den cac mdi quan he chinh trj chat che hem, la nhimg nhan td can thiet cho qua trinh md rpng va tap hgp lye lugng ciia Hoa Ky d khu vyc.
Diu thang 4/2018, Phd Trg ly Ngoai tradng My Alex Wong da dieu tran trade Qudc hdi My ve Chien lupc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong vit sau dd di tham mpt sd nude trong khu vyc de thao luan ve chien luge nay. Phd Trg ly Ngoai tradng My cho ring cac nude trong khu vyc, nhu An Dp, Han Qudc, Nhat Ban, Australia... dang cd mpt sd chiSn luge dan cheo nhau, nhung deu cd gang tang cudng quan he chinh tri, kinh te va an ninh, dac biet vdi ASEAN.
Vdi nhung khia canh vl kinh te, dja chinh trj vit an ninh nhu vay. An Do Duong - Thai Bmh Duong trd thitnh trung tam trong chinh sach doi ngoai ciia Tdng thdng Donald Trump. Chien luge An ninh qudc gia cua My dugc cdng bd vao cudi thang 12/2017 neu ro:
"Chiln luge An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong se mang sy thjnh vugng va an ninh tdi tat ca cac qudc gia va MJ se tang cudng h^ thong dong minh, ddi tac cua minh trong khu vyc nhdm xay dyng mdt cdu true khu vyc dugc lien ket vdi nhau cd kha nang ran de cac hanh dpng hung hang, gift gin dn djnh, va bao dam di lai ty do trong cac khu vyc chung""
40 SO 03-2019 va thjnh vugng cua Hoa Ky"'; va hai yeu td chinh dugc neu rd trong quan diem ciia chinh quyen Trump tgi khu vuc An Do Ducmg - Thdi Binh Duang Id "tu do" vd "rgng m&"? Khai niem An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong ty do va rpng md (FOIP) da md rdng pham vi dia ly cua chien luge de bao gdm ca An Dd Duong va thua nhan vai trd ma An Dp cd the nam gift trong kien tnic dia chien lupc dang bien ddi ciia khu •vyc.
An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duang, dang ndi len nhu la khu vyc dja chinh trj nang ddng nhat the gidi. Cd thi ndi day la khu •vyc da dang nhat, bao gom han ba muoi qudc gia la luc dia, ban diio, va quan dao, bao gdm hang chuc ngan hdn dao cd ngudi d, va bao gdm phan Idn cac dai duong Thai Binh Duong va An Dp, ciing nhu cac vimg biin trong ciia chau A; chiem 44% dien tich be mat the gi&i vd 65% ddn sd the giai (bao gdm cd hai qudc gia ddng ddn nhdt the gidi la An Dg vd Trung Qudc), ddng gdp 62% GDP thi giai vd 46%i thuang mgi hang hda thi gid^, bao gdm cac nen kinh te hang diu cua Tnmg Qudc, Nhat Ban vit Han (5udc. Khu yixc cung sd hiiu mdt lye lugng quan sy Idn nhdt va phat trien nhat tren thi gitji, bao gdm ca Trung Qudc, Bdc Trilu Tien, Han Qudc, An Dp cung nhu ba cucmg qudc hat nhan dugc cdng bd (khdng tinh Hoa Ky va Nga).
Nhin chung, khai niem "An Dp Duong - Thai Bmh Duong" cua Hoa K^, xet vl pham vi la khu vyc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong bat dau tu
CHAU MY NGAY NAY.
"bd Tay An Dp tdi bd Tay Hoa K)""'- Khdng gian biin ndi liln hai dai duong ddng vai trd quan trpng frong viec van chuyen ddu md, khi ddt, va hang hoa tren the gidi. Day la noi cd hai eo bien quan trpng nhdt vdi tuyIn van chuyin dau md tu Trang Ddng tdi Austtalia va Ddng A.
Ty do luu thdng teen biin thuc sy cd -j nghia. Thdng qua cac tayin dudmg bien chiln luge, hdng ndm cd khodng 75.000 tdu di chuyen qua khu vuc nil chdu A vai Trung Ddng vd chdu Au'": udc tinh mdi ngay cd khodng 17 trieu thiing ddu dugc van chuyen qua eo bien Hormuz vd 15,5 trieu thiing qua eo Malacca tuang duang 30% vd 26% tdng lugng ddu vgn chuyen bdng du&ng bien tren the gi&i ; khoang 50% lugng giao thucmg qudc te di qua An Do Duang - Thai Binh Ducmg, dgc biet Id qua Biin Ddng trao ddi thuang mai hai chieu giita Hoa Ky vd khu vi/c An Dd Duang - Thdi Binh Duang hdng ndm & mire 1,4 nghin ty USD." Mat khac, day cung la •vimg cd nhilu cudp bien ftong khi nang lye hang hai ciia cac nude frong khu vyc vin cdn han ehl, vi vay, viec dam bao an ninh cho tuyIn huylt mach cua kinh tl thi gidi dugc cac qudc gia dac biet quan tiim.
Ciing vdi nhftng Igi thi va tilm nSng v l kinh t l va chinh trj, khu vyc' An Dp Duong Thai Binh Duong dugc danh gia la trang tam kinh t l toan cdu, phat triln nhanh nhdt thi oidi Tdm quan trpng cua khu •vyc noi chuns ddi vdi Hoa Ky da ting Ign mgt each dang k l khi hon 17 triSu ngudi M? v
CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 03-2019 41 nhftng ngudi nhap cu tu chau A hoac
cd lien quan den chau A, chiem 5,6%
dan sd'^; ngoai ra hang tram ngan ngudi Trang Qudc, An Dp, Han Qudc, va Nhat Ban hpc tap hoac lam viec tai Hoa Ky, va cac ket ndi ca sd vdi chau A chua bao gid manh me hon. Thuong mai vdi khu vyc dat gia trj gan gap ddi so vdi chau Au.'''
Tai khu vyc, Hoa Ky cd 5 ddng minh trayen thdng (Nhat Ban, Han Qudc, Australia, Thailand, Philippines) va mdi quan he chat che vdi cac qudc gia khac ciing la nhirng Igi ich quan trgng cita Hoa Ky. Sy hien dien ciia Hoa Ky tai khu •vuc da bat ddu vdi Bd Tu lenh Thai Bmh Duong Hoa Ky (USPACOM) va gdn ddy vdo thdng 5/2018, Bd Tu l$nh Thdt Binh Ducmg dugc ddi ten thanh Bd Tu lenh An Do Ducmg Thdi Binh Duang Hga Ky (USINDOPACOM)", Bp Tu lenh Khdng quan Thai Binh Ducmg (PACAF) vdi lye lupng khdng quSn, thuy quan lye chien hang tram tau vii may bay chiln dau, tryc thang va tau van tai ciing vdi cac can cu quan sy dac biet la d Nhat Ban, Guam, Han Qudc, Philippines, Hoa Ky da duy fti sy hien dien lien tuc dl bao ve igi ich ciia minh, ddng minh va dn djnh khu vyc. Cac ddng minh la nhan td quan trgng, khdng thi thilu dl giiip duy tri sy can bing quyln luc mpt each thuan lpi trong khu
•vyc. Ben canh dd, Hoa Ky cung can phat triln mdi quan he gdn gui hon vdi cac ddng minh mdi vii cac ddi tac tiem nang khac va trong bdi canh dd, vai trd
cua ASEAN va An Dp ngay cang dupe de cao. An Dp cung nhu cac qudc gia d Ddng Nam A cd the lit cac ddi tac cd gia trj trong viec md rdng hpp tac hang hai khu •vyc, tft dd cd the dan den cac mdi quan he chinh trj chat che hon, la nhftng nhan td can thiet cho qua trinh md rdng va tap hop lye lupng cila Hoa Ky d khu vyc.
Ddu thang 4/2018, Phd Trg ly Ngoai tradng My Alex Wong da dieu tran trudc Qudc hdi My ve Chien luge An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong va sau dd di tham mpt sd nude trong khu vyc de thao luan ve chien luge nay." Phd Trg ly Ngoai trudng My cho rang cac nude trong khu vyc, nhu An Dp, Him Qudc, Nhat Ban, Australia... dang cd mot sd chiln luge dan cheo nhau, nhung deu cd ging tang cudng quan he chinh trj, kinh tl va an ninh, dac biet vdi ASEAN.
Vdi nhftng khia canh vl kinh tl, dja chinh tri va an ninh nhu vay. An Dp Duong - Thai Bmh Duong trd thanh trang tam trong chinh sach ddi ngoai ciia Tdng thdng Donald Tramp. Chien luge An ninh qudc gia cua My dugc cdng bd vao cudi thang 12/2017 neu rd:
"Chiln luge An Dp Duong - Thai Bmh Ducmg se mang sy thinh •vupng va an ninh tdi tdt ca cac qudc gia va My se tSng cudng h$ thdng ddng minh, ddi tac cua minh trong khu vyc nhiim xay dyng mgt cdu true khu vyc dupe lien kit vdi nhau cd kha nang ran de cac hanh ddng hung hang, gift gin dn djnh, va bao dam di lai ty do trong cac khu vyc chung"".
42 SO 03-2019 CHAU M * NGAY N A Y _ Chien lupc dugc dua ra vao thdi
diem earth tranh chien luge gifta Hoa Ky va Trung Qudc dang dien ra kha phuc tap. Hoa Ky cho rang dang cd
"mp^ cudc canh tranh dia chinh tri giita nhieng vien cdnh cua mdt nen trdi tu the gi&i tu dg vd dp bice dang dien ra tgi khu vuc An Dd Duang Thdi Binh Ducmg. Khu vuc ndy trdi ddi tie bd bien phia Tdy ciia An Dd t&i bd bien phia Tdy ciia Haa Ky, nai tap trung ddng ddn cu nhdt vd cd nen kinh te ndng ddng cita the gi&L Lgi ich ciia Haa Ky trang khu vuc ndy Id tu dg vd rgng ma . Ben canh do. Ban chien luge cdn nhan djnh Trang Qudc cd nhftng ke hoach nham han che sy tiep can cua Hoa Ky dl Trang Qudc dugc "ty do"
hon d khu vyc. Trang Qudc luan giai nhirng tham vpng cua minh la cac bdn cimg cd lpi, nhung sy thdng tri cila Trung Qudc de dpa den van dl chii quyen cua nhieu qudc gia trong khu
•vyc. Cac qudc gia trong khu vyc dang keu ggi sy lanh dao cua Hpa Ky mang tinh ben vflBg nhdm dap ung duy tri mdt trat ty khu •vyc trong dd tdn trgng chil quyen va ddc lap cua cae qudc gia.
Nhu vay thuat ngft "An Dp Ducmg - Thai Binh Duong" da dupe Hoa Ky sd dung mdt each chinh thuc va ddng thdi lan dau tien khu vyc An Do Duong - Thiii Binh Duong dugc dua vao Chiln luge An ninh Qudc gia cua Hoa Ky, xuat hien d vj tri ddu tien, dupe xIp dau tien, trade ca Chau Au va Trang Ddng;
day cung la mdt diem khac bi?t so vdi
chinh quyln eua Tdng thdng Barack Obama vii thi hien sy ditnh gia cua chinh quyln Donald Tramp ddi vdi khu vyc nay mdt each md rdng va toan dien hem tren cac phucmg dien cii v l kinh te, chinh tri, an ninh va chiln luge ma trong dd Viet Nam cung la mdt "ddi tac" rat dupe quan tam".
Phd Trp ly Ngoji tradng Hoa Ky, phy trach khu vyc Ddng A vii Thai Binh Duong, Alex N. Wong, trong mpt cudc hgp vdi cac phdng vien ddu thang 4 nam 2018, da dua ra mdt giai thich ve khai niem nity, cung cap thdng tin ve each chinh quyen Tramp djnh nghia cac khia canh "ty do" vii "md" : (i) Ty do khdng bj ep budc (free from coercion), quan tri tdt (good govemance), dilm bao cac quyen co ban (fimdamental rights), minh bach (transparency) vii ehdng tham nhiing (anti-comiption); (ii) ciic tuyIn giao thdng hang hdi vii hang khdng md; md ve mat hau cdn - ca sd ha tdng (logistics - infrastracture), diu tu md (mpre open investment), thuong mai md (more open trade).
Ly giai viec sft dyng cum tu "An Dp Duong - Thai Bmh Duong" thay cho cum "chau A - Thai Bmh Duong" hoac
"chau A" ma cac chinh quyln trade timg su dung, dng Wong cho rang tu trong Ijch su va hien nay thi thay Nam A, dac biet la An Dp, ddng vai trd quan trpng d Thai Bmh Duong, Ddng A va Ddng Nam A. Ben canh dd, viec An Dp gia tang vai trd d khu •vyc mang lai lpi ich cho Hoa Ky va ca khu vyc nay.
CHAUMYNGAYNAY SO 03-2019 43 2. Viet Nam trong tam nhin chien
luge cua chinh quyen Donald Trump Trong nhftng danh gia cua Hoa Ky, Viet Nam nam trong tong the nhftng tinh toan chien luge ddi vdi khu vyc, cy the la nam ben trong cac khoanh vung chiln luge tir Ddng Nam A din chau A - Thai Binh Ducmg va hien nay la An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong. Trong dd, Viet Nam cd y nghia chien luge, quan trpng trong chinh sach cua chinh quyln Donald Tramp.
Tru&c het, Viet Nam cd vi tri dia ly mang tinh chien luge, Tdng thdng Donald Tramp danh gia viet Nam d vj tri "trung tdm ciia khu vuc An Dg Duang - Thdi Binh Ducmg" ".
An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duang la mdt khdng gian dja chinh trj mdi ndi, tren co sd gin ket hai dai duong Idn cua thi gidi la An Dp Duong va Thai Binh Duong, nhdm tao ra ca sd tiep can md rdng hon so vdi khu vyc chau A - Thai Binh Duang trong qua trinh triln khai chinh sach ddi ngoai cua Hoa Ky dudi thdi Tdng thdng Donald Tramp.
Khai niem "tmng tam" cd the dugc ly giai vi Viet Nam la cua ngd tren tuyen giao thdng huyet mach ndi lien hai dai duang, nim d pham vi trang tam ciia tong thi khdng gian An Dg Duong - Thai Binh Duang; nim d phia Ddng ciia ban dao Ddng Ducmg giap vdi Trang Qudc, Lao va Campuchia, kit ndi Ddng Nam A lye dja va hai dao, trai dpc tu Vjnh Bic Bd din Vjnh Thai Lan, la bao Ian nhin ra Biin Ddng, chan tren
con dudng hang hai Bac Nam ndi lien Ddng A, Bac A vdi An Dp Duong, Trung Ddng, chau Phi, chau Au. Vi tri dja chinh tri qua thye la mdt tai nguyen rat Idn giiip Viet Nam cd vi the hdng hdi tiem ndng tgo ra dnh hudng d khu vuc Ben canh dd, dudng bd bien ddi ciia
Viet Nam cd the cho phep cdc tdu hdi qudn, tdu chien vdo cdc cdng thuang mgi d Dd Ndng, vinh Cam Ranh de tiep nhien lieu, bdo tri, thuc hien cdc dich vu hau cdn cdng nhu md ra cdc khd ndng tiep can cho cdc tdu chien^^.
Thu hai, ve mat y nghia vd muc dd qugn trgng, Hoa Ky danh gia Vi?t Nam la "ddi tdc" tren hai phucmg dien an ninh va kinh te,- ddng thcri Id mgt luc lugng quan trgng ddng gdp vdg trgt ttr an ninh dang ndi len a chdu A - Thdi Binh Duang.
Trong cac bai phat bieu ciia minh, Tdng thdng Hoa Ky thucmg xuyen nhic den viec cung nhau xay dyng mdt khu vyc thjnh vugng, ty do va hda binh (mpt khu -vyc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong ty do vii rpng md). Vi^c tap ra va duy tri mdt khu vyc an ninh, hda binh va dn djnh lil v6 cimg quan trpng va cd gin vdi Igi ich qudc gia cua Hoa Ky tai khu vyc. Dieu nay lien ddi den nhan td Tmng Qudc trong khdng gian dja chinh tri An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Ducmg, Hoa Ky rat quan tam va cd nhiJng danh gia "mot; dii Hoa Ky dang tim cdch tiip tiic hgp tdc v&i Trung Qudc, nhieng Trung Qudc dang sie dyng cdc lgi ich vd su trimg phat kinh te, tdm dnh hudng vd
s o 03-2019 CHAU MY NGAY NAY hdm y de dga qudn su khien cdc qudc
gia khdc quan tdm nhieu han den chinh tri vd cdc chuong trinh an ninh ciia Trung Qudc. Trung Qudc ddu tu cha ca s& hg tdng vd cd nhieng chien luge thuang mgi nhdm thuc Men nhieng tham vgng lien quan den chinh tri ciia qudc gia ndy"'^ doi vdi sy trdi day va qua trinh trien khai cac chinh sach cua Trang Qudc d khu vyc trong thdi gian vfta qua; vi vay Hoa Ky da xep Trang Qudc vao nhdm ddi thd canh tranh "cap toan cdu" vj tri lanh dao vdi Hoa Ky khi thye thi mdt loat chien luge canh tranh vii Hoa Ky dac biet chu y den '^nhieng nd luc xdy dung vd qudn si^ hda cdc tien ddn d vimg Bien Ddng gdy nguy hiem cho Vl$t Nam, cdc tuyen dudng thuang mgi de dga chu quyen ciia cdc qudc gia khdc, vd dnh hu&ng den hda binh khu vuc"^'. Ve phia Viet Nam, Dai tucing Phimg Quang Thanh timg cho bilt Viet Nam dang tim kiem md rdng hpp tac qudc phdng "vdi tat cd cdc nu&c ... vd Viet Nam mudn cd quan he tdt dfp vdi cdc nuac lang gting, cdc nude trong khu vuc, vd cdc cuang qudc ciia the gi&i, ddc bift Id Hoa Ky vd Trung Qudc"'^. Tren thye tl, Viet Nam khdng phai la qudc gia duy nhdt cd tranh chap lanh hai vdi Tmng Qudc d Biin Ddng. Cac qudc gia thanh vien ASEAN khac cung chia se mdi quan ttoi chung ve viec thiic ddy hieu qua an ninh hang hai thdng qua eac to chire an ninh da phuong cua khu •vyc cung nhu vai trd va tieng ndi cua cac qudc gia Idn
trong vdn dl nay nham cSn bang vdi Trung Qudc. Do vay, day chinh la co sd manh me va hieu qua cho Hoa Ky tham dy dl giai quyet cac van de d khu vyc.
Trong nhfttig nam gdn diiy, sy gia tang anh hudng manh me ciia Trung Qudc, ca ve mat kinh te lan quSn sy, da tac ddng din trat ty An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duang. Hien nay, Trung Qudc trd thanh ddi tac thuang mai Idn nhdt eda hiu het cac qudc gia chiiu A chii khdng phai Hoa Ky, va thj phdn cua Tmng Qudc tiep tyc tang; nhu tradng hpp cua Nhat Ban, gia tri thuang mai vdi Tnmg Qudc hien chiem hon 20%, trong khi Hoa Ky chi chiem 12,5%;
tracmg hpp An Dp, con sd vdi Trang Qudc la 1/6 vii Hoa Ky la 1/8; thuong mai ciia Han Qudc vdi Trung Quoc bing tdng sd gia tri thucmg mai vdi ca Hoa Ky va Nhat Ban cpng lai; vdi Indonesia, trong tdng sd gia trj thuang mai thi 14%
la vdi Nhat Ban, 12,5% la vdi Tnmg Qudc, va 7% vdi Hoa Ky.^' Trong nhthig nam gan day, vdi Sang kiln Vanh dai va Con dudng (BRI), Trung Qudc da dau tu d at vao xSy dyng ca sd ha tdng ducmg bp, duang sit, dudng biin d cac nude Tmng A, Nam A, va Chau Phi dl md rpng anh hudng ciia minh va sy tham gia d mftc dO khac nhau ciia nhilu nude trong khu vyc vao sang kien nay cho thay sue anh hudng ngay mdt gia tang ciia Trang Quoc.
Ngoai linh •vyc kinh tl, tilm lye quan sy cila Trang Qudc rdt dang luu y, Trung Qudc ngay cang gia tang su hi?n dien
CHAU MY NGAY NAY s o 03-2019 45 quan sy d An Dp Duong va lien tuc cd
nhftng hanh ddng cling rin trong ttanh chap lanh thd, lanh hai vdi cac qudc gia lang gilng tu bdi dip dao nhan tao cho tdi dimg vfl lye dl uy hiep tau be cua cac nude lang gieng d Biin Ddng va Biin Hoa Ddng cflng tao ra cac thach thuc an ninh ttong khu •vyc. Dilu nay gay nen su hoai nghi va lo ngai d nhilu nude, dac biet la cac nude cd ttanh chdp lanh tho vdi Trung Qudc nhu Nhat Ban va An Dp.
Trade nguy co lgi ich dja chinh ttj, kinh te cua minh ttong khu vyc cd thi bj anh hudng nghiem trpng, cac cudng qudc cd lien quan da nhan thay cdn phai cd chien luge de ddi ttpng vdi Trung Qudc. Mdt khu vyc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong ty do va rdng md da thi hien rd tam nhin dd trong chien luge cua Hoa Ky. Hoa Ky da tu chd "xoay true" trd ve chau A - Thai Binh Duong den thuc hien kien tao mot "An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong ty do va rdng md" de khdng ngimg sy hien dien va duy tri tam anh hudng cua minh tai khu vyc, va thdng qua dd cung cd thi kiem chi Trang Qudc; trong bdi canh chien lupc dd, Viet Nam dugc danh gia la mpt nhan td cd nhieu y nghia, cd vj tti chien luge, chia se nhieu lgi ich chung, la mpt
"doi tac" tiem nang va ttien vpng. Viet Nam da dugc nhic den hai lan trong ban Chien luge an ninh qudc gia cua Hoa Ky, vdi vj tti la "dang trd thanh ddi tac an ninh va kinh t l " xIp dau tien va "trd thanh ddi tie tren linh vyc hang hai" xep thu hai sau Singapore.
Mac dfl cd sy tdn tai cua mdt sd thilt che d khu vyc, nhu Hiep hdi cac qudc gia Ddng Nam A (ASEAN), Diln dan hop tac kinh t l chau A - Thai Binh Duong (APEC), Diln dan Thugng dinh Ddng A (EAS), cflng nhu Hiep hdi Nam A Hpp tac khu vyc (SAARC) nhung van chua cd mdt cau tnic an ninh tdng the khu vyc d An Dp Duong Thai Binh Duong. Mpt trong nhftng muc tieu quan trpng hien tai ciia Hoa Ky la tao ra va duy tri mang ludi lien minh tren ca sd cung cd, tang cudng mdi quan he vdi cac ddng minh trayen thdng ddng thdi phat trien, tang cucmg quan he vdi cac ddi tac mdi va tiem nang tai khu vuc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong. Hoa Ky cdn phai xay dyng va dan dau mpt tap hgp lye lugng de tao ra ddi trgng ddng thdi kiem che Tmng Qudc, va Viet Nam la mdt nhan td quan trgng dupe chu y den va viec thuc day mdi quan he vdi Viet Nam hoan toan phu hgp vdi chiln luge cua Hpa Ky ddng thdi cdn giup tap ra mdt CO sd hien dien dn djnh, nang cao vj thi chinh ttj cua Hoa Ky tai khu vuc ndi chung va Id chia khda de duy tri su cdn bdng chien luge & Ddng Nam A trong bdi canh canh ttanh vdi Trung Qudc.
Hien nay, chien luge cy the d khu vyc An Dp Ducmg - Thai Binh Ducmg van dang ttong giai doan h'uih thimh va dugc nhieu nha quan sat nhin nhan nhu mdt cdng cu dl Hoa Ky "kiem che"
Trang Qudc va ttong dd Viet Nam dugc danh gia '^chiing ta dd Id bgn, la ddi tdc
46 CHAUMYNGAYNAY, vd ddng minh &An Do Duang - Thdi Binh
Duang trong sudt mdt th&i gian ddi, vd chung ta se la bgn. Id ddi tdc vd Id ddng minh trong thdi gian ddi sap tdf\
3. Mpt so n h | n xet
Trong tu duy chien luge mdi cua chinh quyln Tdng thdng Donald Trump, Hoa Ky da cd sy sdp xep lai cac thft ty uu tien ttong chinh sach ddi ngoai, qua do khu •vuc An Dd Duong - Thai Bmh Duong dupe xIp d vj tti dau tien tten co sd nhan thdc nhftng lgi ich chiln luge to Idn tft khu •vyc nay ddi vdi Hoa Ky. Khili m?m An Dp Duong - Thai Bmh Duong da dugc sii dung mdt each chinh thuc trong cac van ban chinh sach cfla qudc gia ham y mdt khu vyc rdng Idn ttai dai tir An Dp Ducmg din Thai Bmh Duong, ttong dd bao gdm nhieu ddng minh, ddi tac cua Hoa Ky, tao thanh mgt "mang lutSd" ttong qua trinh "kilm che" Trung Quoc. Ddng Nam A mil dai di?n la ASEAN ttd thanh mdt loi ttimg tam, la
"nin tdng cua kiin tnic khu vuc An Do - Thdi Binh Dieang nhdm thiic ddy mgt trgt hf dua tren ttt do"^''. 6 khu vyc Ddng Nam A, Hoa Ky cd cac ddng minh tmyin thdng gdm Philippines va Thii Lan; ben canh dd cac qudc gia nhu Vi?t Nam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore cung dugc dat vao vi tri la nhihig "ddi tac" an ninh va kinh tl. Hoa KJ se tiep tuc ciing cd moi quan he vdi ciic ddng minh va tang cudng, thiic ddy quan he vdi cac ddi tac. Tu viec chi rd ba nhdm ' ddi thu de dpa din an ninh qudc gia.
Hoa Ky da "chii y" din Trung Qudc mpt each ddy than ttgng vi gpi "dich danh Trung Qudc la "ddi thd cdp toan cau", la
"cucmg qudc xet lai, mudn h'uih thanh mdt thi gidi ehdng lai lgi ich an ninh cua Hoa Ky" Va viec xdy dung mdt ca chi chung m&i giira Hoa Ky, cdc ddng minh vd ddi tdc an ninh trong khu vuc An Do Duang - Thdi Binh Duang nhim ddi trgng lgi Bdc Kinh^" la mdt dgng lye quan ttpng ttong qua ttinh hinh thanh va ttiln khai chiln luge.
Ting thing Donald Tmmp da de c?p din vdn dl Biin Ddng ttong chinh sach vdi Tmng Qudc, dilu nay cung tjo mpt nin tang quan ttpng cho sy danh gia ve y nghia chiln luge cua Vi?t Nam doi vdi Hoa Ky. Trong ban Chiln luge an ninh qudc gia dupe cdng bd vao thang 12/2017, Vi?t Nam dugc danh gia la
"ddi tac an ninh kinh t l then chdt ttong khu vyc", dugc hai idn nhic den. LSn thft nhit, xIp d vj tti ddi tac sd 1, tten ca cac nude Indonesia, Malaysia, va Smgapore. Bao cao viet: "d Ddng Nam A, Philippines va Thai Lan van la ddng minh v i thi trucmg quan trgng cua Hoa Ky. ViSt Nam, Indonesia, Malaysia va Singapore dang ttd thanh nhthig ddi tac an ninh va kinh te cua Hoa Ky". Ldn thir hai, Hoa Ky xIp Vift Nam d vj tri doi tac ddng thu hai sau Singapore. Ban Chiln luge An ninh qudc gia cho hay:
"chiing ta (Hoa Ky) se cilng cd mdi quan he ddng minh vdi Philippines, Thai Lan va tang cudng mdi quan he ddi tac vdi Singapore, Viet Nam,
CHAUMYNGAYNAY 47
Indanesia, Malaysia va cac nude khac de giup cac qudc gia nay ttd thanh ddi tac hpp tac tren linh -vyc hgp tac hang hai". Ddi vdi Hpa Ky, viec phat triln quan he vdi Viet Nam nhu la mdt co sd quan ttpng cho sy hien dien lau dai, on djnh d khu vyc nay.
Ve phia Viet Nam, chien luge An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong cd nhftng dilm tuong ddng vdi chinh sach doi ngoai cila Viet Nam, va vdi cac lpi ich qudc gia cua Viet Nam. Trong chuyen tham An Dp cua Chu tjeh nude Tran Dai Quang vao thang 3 nam 2018, Viet Nam va An Dp da dua ra mdt tuyen bd chung gian tiep ung hd chien luge An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong Ty do va Rpng md (FOIP) bang each de cap den mdt sd yeu td then chdt nhu "nhac lai tam quan trpng cua viec dat dugc mdt khu vyc An Dp Duong Thai Binh Duong hda binh va thjnh vupng, noi chu quyen va luat phap qudc te, ty do hang hai va hang khdng, phat trien ben vthig, va mdt he thdng thuang mai va diu tu ty do, cdng bang va md dugc tdn ttpng."" Tuy nhien, hgp tac v l mat qudc phdng - an ninh gifta Viet Nam va Hoa Ky van cdn nhilu gidi han; cd the ndi, ddng lye ehmh thuc ddy hai quoc gia xich lai gdn nhau tren phuang dien nay chinh la nhftng thach thiic tir Trang Qudc. Tu phia Viet Nam, chu traong "ket ban" va can bdng vdi ca hai cucmg qudc ttong chinh sach doi ngoai, ciing tao ra nhOiig ca sd quan trpng cho hgp tac qudc phdng - an ninh Hoa Ky - Viet Nam.
De hda giai nhttng vdn dl nh?iy cam, phuang an tdi uu la thuc day sy hgp tac cflng nhu each tiep can thdng qua cac ca che da phuong, nhu thdng qua vai ttd cua ASEAN •
Tdi lieu tham khdo:
1. Aaron Scott Turner (2014), "Vietnam and the United States; Convergence but Not Congruence of Strategic Intetests in the South China Sea", International Affairs Review,
•Volume XXUI, http://iar-gwu.org/sites/default /fiics/articlepdfs/2-US-Vietnam%20Security- Tumer.pdf
2. Alex N. Wong (2018), "Briefing on The Indo- Pacific Strategy", https://www.state.gOv/r/pa/
prs/ps/2018/04/280134.htm
3. C Raja Mohan (2017), Donald Trump's 'Indo- Pacific' and America's India Conundrum, https://www.isas.nus.edu.sg/wj>content/uploads /media/isasj)apers/ISAS%20Insights%20No.
%20476-%20Donald%20Trump's%20'Indo- Pacific'%2Qand%20America's%20India%20 Contmdrum.pdf
4. Dingding Chen (2018), "The Indo-Pacific Strategy: A background analysis", Italian Institute of International Political Studies, https://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblica2ione/ind o-pacific-strategy-background-ana]ysis20714 5. Hillary Rodham Clinton (2011), "America's
Pacific Century", Foreign Policy, at http;//www.state.gov/secretary/mi/2011/10/17 5215.htm
6. Liang Fang (2017), "Indo-Pacific strategy will likely share the same fate as rebalance to Asia- Pacific", Global Times, at http://www.
globaItimcs.en/content/1078470.html 7. Marcus Hand (2017), "Malacca and S'pore
Straits Traffic Hits New High in 2016, 'VLCCs Fastest Growing Segment"; Seatrade Maritime News, http://www.seatrade-maritime.
com/news/asia/malacca-and-s-pore-strait-traffic- hits-new-high-in-2016-vlccs-fastest-growing- segmenthtml
8. "National Security Strategy of the United States of American 2017", https://www.whitehouse.
gov/wp-content/upIoads/20I7/12/NSS-Final- I2-18-2017-0905-l.pdf
9. Prabir De (2018), "Reshaping Indo-Pacific Cooperation", The Economic Times, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/et- coinmentary/reshaping-ind(>.pacific-cooperation/
48 CHAU MY NGAYNAY^
lO.Remarks by President Trump at APEC CEO Summit, Da Nang Vietnam, 2017, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-stateme nts/remarks-president-trump-apec-ceo-summit- da-nang-vietnam/
ll.Varghese K. George (2018), "U.S. Pacific Command renamed U.S. Indo-Pacific Command", The Hindu, at https://www.thehindu.com/news/intemational/
us-pacific-command-renamed-us-indo-pacific command/article 24043314.ece Chu thich:
1. Gurpreet S. Khurana (2007), "Security of Sea Lines: Prospects for India-Japan Cooperation,"
Strategic Analysis 31, no. 1
2. "The National Security Strategy of the United States of America 2002", http://nssarchive.us/
NSSR/2002.pdf
3. Hillary Rodham Clinton (2011), "America's Pacific Century", Foreign Policy, at http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2011/10/17 5215.htm
4. Dingding Chen (2018), "The Indo-Pacific Strategy: A background analysis", Italian Institute of International Political Studies, https://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/ind o-pacific-strategy-background-analysis20714 5. HiUary Clinton (2011), "America's Pacific
Century", Foreign Affairs, at http://www.
state.gov/secretary/rm/2011/10/175215.htm 6. Remarks by Secretary Mattis at Plenary Session
of the 2018 Shangri-La Dialogue, US Department of Defense, 2 June 2018, at https://translations.state.gov/2018/06/02/remar ks-by-secretary-mattis-at-plenary-session-of- the-2018-shangri-Ia-dialogue/
7. C Raja Mohan (2017), Donald Trump's 'Indo- Pacific' and America's India Conundrum, ht^s://www.isas.nus.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads /media/isas_j)apers/ISAS%20Insights%20No.
%20476-%20Donald%20Trump's%20'Indo- Pacific'%20and%20America's%20India%20 Conundrum.pdf
8. Prabir De (2018), "Reshaping Indo-Pacific Cooperation", The Economic Times, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/et- commentary/resh^ing-indo-pacific-cooperation/
9. "National Security Strategy of the United States of American 2017", https://www.whitehouse.
gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final- 12-18-2017-0905-l.pdf
ICMarcus Hand (2017), "Malacca and S'pore Straits Traffic Hits New High in 2016, VLCCs Fastest Growing Segment",- Seatrade Maritime News, http://www.seatrade-maritinie.
com/news/asia/malacca-and-s-pore-strait-traffic- hits-new-high-in-2016-vlccs-fastest-growing- segment.html
ll.U.S. Energy Information Administration 2017:
World Oil Transit Chokepoints, http://bit.ly/2Jghdfc
12.Alex N. Wong (2018), "Briefing on The Indo- Pacific Strategy", https://www.state.gOv/r/pa/
prs/ps/2018/04/280134.htm
13.Demographic figures are from the US Census Bureau, https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/
fact/table/US/PST045216, May 4, 2018 14.Trade figures are fi-om the US Census Bureau,
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/
c0016.html
IS.Varghese K. George (2018), "U.S. Pacific Command renamed U.S. Indo-Pacific Command", The Hindu, at https://www.
thehindu.com/news/intemational/us-pacific- command-renamed-us-indo-pacificcommand /article24043314.ece
16.Alex N. Wong (2018), "Briefing on The Indo- Pacific Strategy", https://www.state.gOv/r/pa/
prs/ps/2018/04/280134.htm
n.Lucio Blanco Pitio III (2018), "Making a "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" Appealing to Southeast Asia", https;//amti.csis.org/making- foip-appealing -southeast-asia/
18."National Security Strategy of the United States of America", https://www.whitehouse.
gov/wp-content/uploads/20I7/12/NSS-Final- 12-18-2017-0905.pdf, Dec 2017, pp.45-46 l9.Alex N. Wong, Briefing on The Indo-Pacific
Strategy, April 2 2018, https;//www.state.gov/
r/pa/prs/ps/2018/04/280134.htm
20.Remarks by President Trump at APEC CEO Summit, Da Nang Vietnam, 2017, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefmgs-stateme nts/remarks-president-trump-apec-ceo-summit- da-nang-vietnam/
21.Central Intelligence Agency, "Vietnam, East &
Southeast Asia," https://wvw.cia.gov/library/
publications/the-world-factbook/geos/my.html 22.Aaron Scott Tumer (2014), "Vietnam and the
United States: Convergence but Not Congruence of Strategic Interests in the South China Sea", International Affairs Review, Volume XXIII, http://iar-gwu.org/sites/ default /files/articIepdfs/2-US-Vietnam%20Security- Tumer.pdf
CHAU MY NGAY NAY 49 23.National Security Strategy of the Unhed States
of America, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp- content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-l 2-18- 2017-0905.pdf, December 2017, p. 46 24.National Security Strategy of the United States
of America, htlps://www.whitehouse.gov/wp- content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-201 7-0905.pdf, December 2017, p. 46 25.Aaron Scott Tumer (2014), "Vietnam and the
United States: Convergence but Not Congruence of Strategic Interests in the South China Sea", International Affairs Review, Volume XXIII, http://iar-gwTi.org/sites/ default /files/articlepdfs/2-US-Vietnam%20Security- Tumer.pdf, p. 5
26.Indo-Pacific Dynamics in Trans-Pacific Perspective, Ambassador Chas W. Freeman, Jr.
(USPS, Ret.), Remarks to The George Washington University's Elliott School of Foreign Affairs Conference on Power, Identity, and Security: Regional Cooperation and the U.S. Role, htlps://www .mepc.org/speeches/indo- pacific-dynamics-trans-pacific-perspective 27.Raymond Burghardt (2012), "U.S.-Vietnam:
New Stiategic Partners Begin Tough Trade Talks", Asia Pacific Bulletin, East-West Center, no. 153, February 29, 2012, p. 2, https://www.eastwestcenter.org/systeni/tdf/priva te/apbl53_0.pdf?file=l&type=node&id=33321
28.Remarks by President Tmmp at APEC CEO Summit, Ds Nang Vietnam, 2017, ht^s://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statement s/remaife-president-trump-apec-ceo-sum mit-da- nang-vietnam/
29."National Security Strategy of the United States of America", December 2017, p. 46.
The change of the US Secretary of State ft-ould perpetuate the benign neglect of Southeast Asia as the State Department, customarily the key institution formulating US policy towards the region, contmues to be embroiled in organisational reshuffle and to suffer the lack of both political leadership and midlevel policy-makers.
30.Liang Fang (2017), "Indo-Pacific strategy will likely share the same fate as rebalance to Asia- Pacific", Global Times, at http://www.global times.cn/content/1078470.shtml 31."India-Vietnam Joint Statement during State
visit of President of Vietnam to India (March 03, 2018)", Ministry of External Affairs, 3 March 2018, http://www.mea.gov.in/ bilateral documents.htm?dtl/2953 5/