I l l CONG NGHE NGAN HANG
L0I ICH CUA HUI VA QUYET DjNH THAM GIA H^l CUA NGl/OfI DAN AN GIANG
P G S . , T S . L e KhiTcTng Ninh Trifofng D H C a n Thd
C a o V a n Hdn Tri^cfng C a o d&ng N g h e A n Giang
• • j ^ ^ ^ o rdt ti^n lgi vd cd ich nen hui Id hinh thUc tin dung ddn gian khd pho K • bien vd hap ddn nhieu ngiidi tham gia. Tren nguyen tdc, l^i ich cua hui K ^m .rudt phdt tii vi(>c tien tiet ki('m ciia ngiidi ndy diigc sii dung ngay de tai
^^^^^ trg cho ngiidi khde md khdng phdi chd den khi tU tiet ki^m du tien. Tuy cd ldi nhii vdy nhiing do dnh hiidng ciia mgt sd yeu td nen khdng phdi ai cdng tham gia hui. Muc tieu ciia bdi viet Id nghien ciiu cdc yeu td dnh hiidng den quyet dinh tham gia hui tren cd sd h^ thd'ng dH li^u sd cap thu thdp tii 450 cd nhdn diii^c chgn ngdu nhien d tinh An Giang. Ke't qud nghien cUu cho thay quyet dinh tham gia hui eda cdc cd nhdn phu thugc vdo cdc yeu td nhii nghe nghidp, lgi ich, thu nhdp, chi tieu bd't thiidng, thdm nien tham gia hui, ndi sdng, gid tri tdi sdn vd muc dich tham gia. Trong dd, ddng liiu y nhd't Id nhiing ngiidi tham gia hui thiidng quan tdm de'n ldi ich md Id Id yeu td rdi ro do chii quan nen hi^n tiigng vd hui dien ra khd pho bien. TH ket qud phdn tich, bdi viet de xud't mgt so gidi phdp nhdm ldm cho hui trd thdnh mgt kenh tin dung ngdy cdng hHu ich ddi vdi ngiidi ddn.
D a t v a n d e Uu d i e m eua h u i II cho p h e p sd dung ngay t i e n t i e t k i e m c u a ngddi n i y de tai trcf Khi c a n t i e n de d i p d n g m p t nhu cau cho ngddi k h i c m l k h d n g p h a i chd den n i o dd, n h i e u ngddi k h d n g t h e vay e l c khi td tich iQy du t i e n , qua dd H m tang td chdc t i n d u n g (TCTD) do k h o n g cd cd lpi ich cho n h d n g ngddi t h a m gia va giam hpi, k h d n g du uy t i n hay thie'u t l i s i n the' l a n g phi do t i e n t i e t k i e m k h d n g dflde siJ c h a p . Ngflde H i , khi cd ddpc m p t k h o a n d u n g n h a n h c h d n g (Besley v l cae tac gia, t i e t k i e m n h o , n h i e u ngddi H i p h a i gifl 1993). M a c du h u i cd ldi n h d vay nhflng d n h i vi h a u he't c l e TCTD k h d n g c h l ' p t h d c te cho t h a y k h d n g p h a i mpi ngi/di n h a n cac k h o a n t i e n gdi q u i nhd bdi chi d e u t h a m gia do chiu a n h h d d n g cua mot phi giao dich cao ( B a r s l u n d v l T a r p , 2008). s d y e u to n h a ' t d i n h . N e u v a y , mot Ifldng T r o n g dieu k i e n dd, h u i dflpc xem n h d t i e n n h a n r d i d a n g ke n i m r a i r a c trong m p t h i n h t h d c t i n d u n g ddn g i a n n h d n g d a n c h u n g k h d n g ddpc sd d u n g de sinh Icfi r l ' t h d u ich vi cd t h e g i u p cac c l n h i n t r o n g k h i h e thd'ng t i n d u n g ehinh thiJc t a p h p p nhflng k h o a n t i e n t i e t k i e m nhd (TDCT) chda p h a t t r i e n du m a n h (nha't t h i n h k h o a n t i e n du Idn de sd d u n g cho I I d n h d n g v u n g n d n g t h d n xa xdi) de co m p t muc dich t h i e t t h d c n i o dd ( n h d t a o t h e t a p h d p n g u d n lde t a i c h i n h r a t d^i v d n k i n h d o a n h , s a n xua't, mua s I m v a t d a o v l quy b a u n a y ( I m a i va cac tac gia.
d u n g gia d i n h , c h d a b e n h h a y t r a n p ) . 2010).
Congnghe H g d v i H a n g
Sd'Xuan.Thang 01+02/2012
CONG NGHl NGAN HANG
l l l l
Gid'ng n h d d n h i e u nddc t r e n the gidi, hui I I h i n h t h d c t i n dung d i n gian r a t phd bien d nddc ta (Tanaka v l Nguyen, 2008; Anderson v l cac t i c gia, 2009; Eeckhout v l Munshi, 2010) nhdng, theo hieu biet cua nhdm t i c g i i thi cd it n g h i e n cdu ve nd. Thflc te dd khich le n h d m t i e g i i thflc h i e n b l i viet nay vdi muc tieu I I n g h i e n cdu c i c yeu td a n h hfldng de'n quye't dinh t h a m gia hui (cu the II sd t i e n t h a m gia) cua e l c c l n h i n n h i m tim ra giai p h i p giup p h i t t r i e n hui trd t h i n h k e n h tin dung hdu ich cho ngddi d i n .
Cor sof l y l u a n v e c a c y e ' u t o ' a n h h t f d n g d e ' n q u y e ' t d i n h t h a m g i a h u i
Theo e l c n h i n g h i e n cdu (nhd Besley v l c i c t i c gia 1993; Levenson va Besley, 1996), ye'u to' Cd b i n n h l ' t a n h h d d n g de'n quye't dinh t h a m gia hui cua c i c c l n h i n dd II cd hpi t i e p c a n TDCT. Neu de t i e p c a n TDCT thi c l e e l n h i n se it ed ddng ed t h a m gia hui bdi c i c TCTD c h i n h t h d c II dia chi an t o i n hdn de gdi t i e t k i e m v l r l ' t chuyen nghiep t r o n g viec d i p d n g nhu eau vay vdn cua c i c dd'i t d d n g .
Mac du e l e d i y h u i cd t h e ddpc t h i e t ke' de g i l m riii ro cho ngddi t h a m gia (nhd chi bao gdm it ngddi t h i n quen, t r a thii lao (hoa hong) eho ehu h u i de k i e m s o i t v l cddng che ngddi t h a m gia, d a t ngddi k e m tin cay I nhl't v i o vi t r i eud'i cung n h a n so' t i e n ddng gdp, sd d u n g e l c c h u a n mde dao ddc xa hdi v l cpng ddng de r a n g budc ngddi t h a m gia hay t a y ehay k h d n g eho t h a m gia cac d i y hui t i e p theo) n h d n g viec t h a m gia hui ludn , tiem a n r u i ro khd l d d n g do n h d n g ngddi
da n h a n k h o a n t i e n ddng gdp k h d n g t i e p , tuc t h d c h i e n n g h i a vu eua m i n h (Handa . v l Kirton, 1999; A n d e r s o n v l c l e t i c gia, , 2009). Vi v a y , quye't d i n h t h a m gia hui se
tuy thudc v i o quan d i e m cua eac c l n h i n ddi vdi r u i ro (dd I I sd hay k h d n g sd r u i , ro). H i e n n h i e n H r u i ro se ddpc d a n h ddi , vdi ldi ich n h a n ddpc td viec t h a m gia hui va m a c du khd ed t h e dd b l o chinh xac mde
iMihtg^OtdmMM
dp riii ro cua viec t h a m gia hui nhdng neu lpi ich ddpc dieu chinh theo rui ro II du Idn theo n h a n djnh (chu quan) cua b a n t h i n thi c i c ca n h i n se cd dpng cd t h a m gia hui (Ambec v l Treich, 2007).
Theo Levenson va Besley (1996), H a n d a v l Kirton (1999)... nhflng ngddi cd thu n h a p cao se c() nhieu thdi gian v l dieu kien t h i e t lap mdi quan he xa hpi rpng r a i , g a n gui v l t h i n tinh vdi nhieu ngddi do dd co the d i n h g i i uy tin cua nhflng ngddi xung quanh mdt c i c h chinh x i c hdn n e n cd ddng cd t h a m gia hui m a n h hdn. Hdn nfla, nhflng ngddi cd thu n h a p cao se de ddpc c h i p n h a n v i o c i c d i y hui neu mudn t h a m gia vi t h d d n g ddpc xem II cd uy tin cao v l d i n g tin cay. Tddng td, ngfldi p h a i chi nhieu k h o a n b i t thfldng cd xu hfldng t h a m gia nhieu d i y hui vdi chu ky (hui n g i y , hui t u a n , hui thing...) v l so' t i e n t h a m gia k h i c nhau de cd the linh dpng t r o n g chi tieu bdi hui II mpt phfldng thflc dfl p h o n g hieu qua, n h l ' t II dd'i vdi nhflng ngddi it cd dieu kien t i e p can e l c h i n h thflc tin dung k h i e m l H i k h d n g mud'n gid t i e n d n h i n h i m h a n che' e l c chi tieu k h d n g can t h i e t cua b a n t h i n hay cua ngfldi t h i n trong gia dinh (Calomiris v l Rajaraman, 1998).
Neu t h i m n i e n t h a m gia hui c i n g d l i t h i ngfldi t h a m gia se cd nhieu k i n h n g h i e m (nhl't I I t r o n g viec h a n che rui ro), ed nhieu t h d n g tin de giup chpn h i n h thflc hui v l dd'i t i c cd lpi n h l ' t cho minh... n e n se cd xu hfldng t h a m gia hui vdi so' t i e n nhieu hdn (Ambec v l Treich, 2007). Ben c a n h dd, t h d i quen h i n h t h i n h td viec t h a m gia hui trong t h d i gian d l i cung khie'n e l c c l n h i n cd xu h d d n g t i e p tuc vi t h d d n g it ai mud'n t h a y ddi t h d i quen cua minh, t r d khi cd b i t t r a e x l y ra.
N g o l i ra, cdn cd m p t so' ye'u to' k h i c a n h hddng de'n dpng cd t h a m gia hui ciia e l c c l n h i n , c h a n g h a n n h d tudi. Ngddi Idn tudi t h d d n g cd n h i e u t l i "san, n h i e u k i n h n g h i e m , n h i e u md'i quan he xa hpi... n e n
Congnghe!
Sd'Xuan .Thang 01+02/2012
n i l CONG NGHl NGAN HANG
cd xu hddng t h a m gia hui vdi .so t i e n nhieu hdn. Tuy n h i e n , cung cd lap luan cho r i n g ngddi t r e tudi H i cd nhu cau cao hdn ve sda sang n h i eda, mua s I m v a t dung gia dinh hay nudi dddng con c l i n e n se cd nhu cau t i e t k i e m cao hdn v l do dd t h a m gia hui vdi so' t i e n Idn hdn vdi muc tieu tich luy cho tddng lai. Ngddi t r e tudi t h d d n g n i n g dpng, de h d a n h a p vdi cdng ddng v l n h a y b e n trong viec t i e p can c i c cd hdi sinh lpi n e n se ed ddng cd t h a m gia hui m a n h hdn (Levenson v l Besley, 1996).
T r i n h dp hpc vl'n cung II yeu td' can quan t i m vi ngddi cd t r i n h dp hpc vl'n c i n g cao thi nhu cau t h a m gia hui c i n g t h i ' p do de t i e p can TDCT hay b i n chinh thdc nhd t h d n g hieu thu tuc vay v l t h d d n g cd uy tin x l hdi eao (Le Khddng N i n h v l P h a m Van Dddng, 2011). Vi c i c TCTD t h d d n g d a t tru sd d thi trI'n, thi xa hay t h i n h phd' n e n n h d n g ngddi sd'ng d nong t h d n it ed cd hdi t i e p can TDCT; trong dieu k i e n dd, each td't n h l ' t de t a o vd'n H m a n hay t i e t k i e m I I t h a m gia hui t h a y vi td de d i n h .
Nhieu n g h i e n edu (nhd Anderson v l cac t i e gia, 2009; Eeckhout v l Munshi, 2010) cdn ngu y r a n g b e n c a n h c l e ye'u t d thudc ve b a n t h i n , c i c ye'u to' m a n g t i n h chl't gia dinh cung a n h h d d n g de'n quye't d i n h t h a m gia hui ciia e l c c l n h i n . Gia d i n h ed n h i e u
Congnghe H g a i l K d n g
So'Xuin .Thang 01+02/2012
t h i n h vien se phai chi tieu nhieu hon nen se cd xu h d d n g t h a m gia hui vdi sd tien it hdn. Ngddi cd n h i e u di't (dat rupng. vi/dn hay thd cd) se de vay TDCT bdi cd tai san the' c h i p cd g i i t r j , do dd dpng cd tham hui se t h i ' p ; tuy n h i e n , eung cd lap luan cho r i n g nhflng ngddi cd n h i e u dat thfldng la n h d n g ngddi g i i u n e n cd the tham gia hui vdi sd' t i e n Idn (Levenson va Besley, 1996i.
Ngddc H i , c l e loai t l i san de chuyen doi t h i n h t i e n m a t n h d tivi, video, quat dien.
xe m i y . . . t h d d n g k h d n g the the chap de vay TDCT n h d n g H i de b i n H y tien khi can. Do dd, n h d n g ngddi cd n h i e u tai san loai nay se it cd ddng cd t h a m gia hui vi thdi diem
"hd't" hui H i chda c h i c la luc phat sinh nhu cau. Cud'i cung, c l e n g h i e n cflu cdn cho rang mue tieu sd d u n g t i e n "hdt" hui cung anh h d d n g d e n sd' t i e n t h a m gia hui. Neu cd muc tieu t a o vdn de d i u td vao s a n x u l t - kinh doanh thi cac e l n h i n se cd xu hddng tham gia h u i vdi so' t i e n dii Idn de dau td.
M o h i n h n g h i e n cvtn
T r e n ed sd eac l a p l u a n vda t r i n h bay C t r e n , b l i v i e t h i n h t h i n h mo h i n h nghien cdu n h d sau:
SOTIEN = fl^-i-fiiNGHENGHIEP+fi2QDR^'f^O-i-/3,L01ICH + + PJHUNHAP+piCHIBArrmJONG + PJHAMNIEN + /?/t/0/ + PgHOCVAN + P^NOISONG + P^SOTHANH VIEN + p,, GIA TRlDj^
P^J'AISAN+P^MUCDICH ^ ^
CONG NGHl NGAN HANG
III
Trong md h i n h t r e n , bien phu thudc (SOTIEN) p h a n tich d i e diem cua cac c l n h i n trong la sd tien t h a m gia hui cua c i c c l n h i n (trieu mau k h i o s i t cung n h d thdc t r a n g t h a m gia ddng); dd'i vdi nhflng ngddi k h d n g t h a m gia, hui cua hp. Sau do, b l i viet tie'n h i n h ddc SOTIEN = 0. Y n g h i a cua c i c b i e n sd dung Idpng mo h i n h hoi quy de chi ra a n h hddng trong md h i n h v l ky vpng ve di'u cua e l c he cua c i c yeu t d den so t i e n t h a m gia hui cua c i c c l n h i n b i n g cich sd dung md hinh Tobit (hay con gpi II mo hinh kiem so AC = 1.2 13), ( B a n g 1).
Bang 1; Y nghia c u a c a c bid'n va ky vong ve dfi'u cua cac h^ so p.
Ten bien Dien giai
NGHENGHIEP
QDRUIRO LOIICH
THUNHAP CHIBATTHUONG THAMNIEN TUOI HOCVAN NOISONG SOTHANHVIEN GIATRIDAT TAISAN MUCDICH
Ky vong Co gid tri la 1 doi voi nhiifng ngiidi it co kha nflng vay
diroc TDCT (do clii \km thue, lam nong nghi?p hay mua ban nhol va la 0 neu ngUOc lai
Co gia tri \k 1 doi vo'i ngUdi so rui ro va la 0 neu ngifcJc lai
Co gi6 tri la 1 doi vo'i ngudi cho ran^,' loi icli til tham gia hui la dii Ion de co the chap nhan riii ro va la 0 neu ngifcfc lai
Thu nh$p cua uLruoi duoc phong van ilnvu don^;/
thang)
Chi tieu khong lirdng tri/dc nhu tien tri b?nh, ma chay. cifoi hoi. gio quay, le lal (Irieu dong/nSm) So nSm tham gia hui
Tuoi cua ngudi duoc phong van
Co gid tri la 1 doi vdi ngucfi da tot nghiep cap 3 va la 0 doi vdi cac tradng hdp khde
Co gid tri la 0 doi vdi ngUdi song a nong thon va la 1 neu ngUdc lai.
So thanh vien trong gia dinh (ngUdi)
Gid tri dat dai cua ngtfdi dufgc phong van (trieu dong) Gid tri cua cdc loai tai san de chuyen doi thanh tien mdt nhtf tivi. video, quat dien, xe mdy... (trieu dong) Co gid tri la 1 neu tham gia hui vdi muc tieu tao von de san xuat - kinh doamh va la 0 doi vdi cdc muc tieu khac
+ +/-
+/-
duyet) vdi sd ho trp cua phan mem Stata.
Theo Gujarati (2004), Tobit II md hinh phu hpp n h a t ddpc sfl dung de fldc Iflpng anh hfldng cua cac bien ddc lap den bien phu thuoc trong trfldng hpp gii trj cua bien phu thudc bi kiem duyet hay khong dflpc phep nho hdn mpt g i i tri n i o dd. Trong trddng hdp b l i viet n i y , g i i tri cua bien phu thupe (so' tien tham gia hui) chi CO the Idn hdn hoac bang khdng vi cic c l n h i n co the tham gia hui vdi mdt sd^ tien n i o do hay khdng tham gia.
Ke't q u a n g h i e n c i i u v a t h a o l u a n
PhiioTng p h a p n g h i e n c i f u Phiidng phdp thu thap sd li^u
So' lieu sd dung trong b l i ddpc thu t h a p b i n g phddng p h i p n g i u n h i e n p h i n t a n g d 10 huyen, thi xa v l t h i n h phd' thudc t i n h An Giang. Cu t h e , d mdi t h i n h phd', thi xa hay huyen, nhdm t i c gia tie'n h i n h chpn ngau n h i e n ba x l (phddng) v l sau dd t i e p tuc ehpn n g i u n h i e n 450 c l n h i n cd gia dinh sd'ng d c l e x l (phddng) n i y de tie'n h i n h phdng vl'n d d a v i o b a n g c l u hdi ddpc soan s a n .
Phiidng phdp phdn tich so' li$u
Tren cd sd s d lieu thu t h a p ddpc, b l i viet Loai hui n i o cung deu p h a i cd hoa h d n g sd dung phddng p h i p thd'ng ke mieu t a de cho chu hui. Theo ke't qua k h a o s i t , hoa
Md td mdu khdo sdt
Theo k e t qua k h i o s i t trong 450 c l n h i n ddpc chpn ngau n h i e n thi cd 316 ngddi cd t h a m gia hui (chiem 70,2% so' c l n h i n ddpc k h i o s a t ) v l 316 c l n h i n n i y t h a m gia 355 d i y hui; t i n h binh q u i n , mdi ngddi t h a m gia k h o i n g 1,1 d i y hui. Ke't qua n i y mpt l a n nfla k h a n g dinh t i n h phd b i e n cua hui d An Giang. Xet t r e n phddng dien t h d i gian, hui cd t h e chia t h i n h nhieu loai, trong dd phd bien n h l ' t II hui t h i n g (chie'm 51,8% so' d i y hui ddpc k h i o s i t ) , hui t u a n (23,9%), hui n g i y (21,5%), trong khi hui hai t u a n chi chie'm 2,8% so' d i y hui ddpc k h i o s i t .
&£Miii iMiieng.Qldm.MM Congnghe f i y d V I H d n Q
S6' Xuin . Thang 01 +02/2012
C a c h thiifc .siif d u n g t\6n hd't h u i MUM (Id (hiDK t^ti'' (1"ih
T i r i k i c m
M u a hUiuji, time - thi/c phAin D.ui ill' v.'Ki sail xual
T n i h o c i)lii clio con c m T d n g c y n g
Sd' q u a n s a t 81 79 60 .'54 42 .316
Ty trpng (%) 25,6 25,0 19,0 17,1 13,3 100,0
• I I I CONG NGHt NGAN HANG
hdng cho chu hui cu t h e : neu Bang 2; Cach thufc svif dung sd' ti^n hd't hui d i y hui cd so' t i e n t h a m gia
nhd hdn 500.000 ddng/ngddi thi hoa hong se b i n g vdi so t i e n t h a m gia cua mdt ngddi;
c h i n g h a n , nou mde hui H 200.000 ddng/ngddi thi hoa
h d n g c h o c h u h u i c u n g l a Nnunn Nhdm lur gui imh Inan ut so lim ut klnia sdi nam 2011
200.000 ddng. Neu day hui
cd sd t i e n t h a m gia td 500.000 dong/ngdcVi Do t i m ly la qua quen thudc vdi hinh thii'c trd l e n thi hoa hong b i n g mot luia sd tion tin d u n g n a y n e n nhi^u ngddi t h a m gia hui t h a m gia cua moi ngddi, nghia H ndu sd c() xu h d d n g xem t h d d n g ye'u t o ' r u i ro do hui t i e n t h a m gia II 1.000.000 dong/ngddi tbi gay ra. T h a t v i y , ke't qua k h a o s i t cho thay hoa hong cho chu hui sc II 500.000 dong. cd ddn 208 ngddi t h a m gia hui m l khong cii Tuy n h i e n , cung cd mpt so t r d d n g h p p chu h p p ddng (chidm 65,9'* sd' ngddi tham gia) hui n h a n nhieu hdn so t i e n tham gia hui bdi cho r;ing k h d n g c a n t h i e t (143 ngfldi, do cd k h a n a n g d i m b l o an t o i n cao cho chiem 45,3VO hay q u i phdc t a p (65 ngfldi, nhflng ngfldi t h a m gia; dieu n i y phu thudc chiem 20,(^'/<). Sd cdn H i 108 ngfldi co lam v i o t h d a t h u a n gifla nhflng ngfldi t h a m gia h p p dong d d a n g g i l y tay (34,1%) vi cho trflde khi d i y hui b i t dau. r i n g c a n d a m b l o an t o i n (68 ngfldi, chie'm
21,57^) hay cd cd sd p h i p ly de b l o ve quyen Tudi t r u n g b i n h c u a n g d d i t h a m gia h u i lpi ndu x l y ra t r a n h c h i p (40 ngddi, chiem I I 36 v l t r i n h dp h p c v a n t r u n g b i n h I I 12,6'7r); song h d p d d n g d a n g n i y khong thiic l d p 9. Nhflng ngfldi t h a m gia h u i cd n g h e sfl cd g i i trj p h i p ly m l chi ddn thuan la n g h i e p k h i p h o n g p h u , t r o n g dd n d n g t a o sfl an t i m cho ngddi t h a m gia hui. Co d i n chie'm 33,6%; m u a b i n n h d chie'm k h i ddng ngfldi k h d n g H m h d p ddng khi 2 8 , 5 % ; c d n g n h i n v i e n chie'm 2 4 , 8 % ; chu t h a m gia h u i do hp thfldng t h a m gia hui vdi d o a n h n g h i e p g i a d i n h chie'm 10,2% v l h i n g xdm, ngfldi t h i n , ngfldi cung nghe hay chu c d n g t y tfl n h i n chie'm 2,9%. Ndi eung t r o n g e l c td chflc d o i n t h e .
sd'ng c u a ngfldi t h a m gia h u i c u n g p h i n
b d r p n g k h a p t r o n g t i n h , t r o n g dd cd Sd tiejn t h a m gia h u i binh q u i n la 1,5 trieu 38,9% s d n g d n o n g t h d n ; 24,2% d c h p ddng/ngddi; sd t i o n n h i e u nha't len den 20 x a ; 2 0 , 2 % d t h i t r I ' n v l 16,7% d t h j xa t r i e u ddng/ngddi v l it n h l ' t II 0,2 trieu h a y t h i n h p h d . ddng/ngddi. Sd t i e n t h a m gia hui phd bien
II 1 t r i e u ddng/ngddi; sd' t i e n n i y cd the Khi de c a p de'n h u i , n h i e u n g d d i t h d d n g k h d n g d i n g ke dd'i vdi ngddi ed thu nhap n g h i n g d d i t h a m gia se I I nfl. Tuy n h i e n , eao nh,dng H i k h i Idn dd'i vdi nhflng ngfldi ke't qua k h i o s i t cho tha'y chi cd 77,5% d i n sd'ng d n d n g t h d n , cd t h u n h a p thap. Vi s d n g d d i t h a m gia h u i I I nfl v l 22,5% vay, viec d a m b a o an t o a n k h i t h a m gia hui con H i I I n a m g i d i , cho t h i ' y h u i n g i y p h l i H vl'n de c a n ddpc quan t i m cua chinh nay I I m o t h i n h t h d c t i n d u n g d i p d n g b i n t h i n ngddi t h a m gia eung nhfl chinh dflpc n h u cau c u a n h i e u d d i tfldng t r o n g quyen e l e cl'p.
xa h p i . Ke't qua k h a o s i t curf^ cho tha'y
e a c h t h d c sd d u n g t i e n hd't hui- I I k h a da Ket qud phdn tich d a n g ( B a n g 2), t r o n g dd d i n g ldu y I I cd
de'n 2 5 % so' n g d d i sd d u n g h u i n h d I I m p t CIc ehi tieu kiem dinh md hinh (nhdloglikelihood h i n h t h d c t i e t kie m. = -827,116; pro > chi^ = 0,000...) t n n h bay d phin
fl Congnghe n g d n H d n g
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l l l l
B a n g 3 : Kd't q u a p h a n t i c h
Bien phu thugc: S o t i e n t h a m g i a h u i ( t r i ^ u dong/ngtfcfi)
Bien sd He sd /I df/dx Gid tri P
Hing sd C NGHENGHIEP
QDRUIRO LOIICH THUNNHAP CHIBATTHUONG THAMNIEN TUOI HOCVAN NOISONG SOTHANHVIEN GIATRIDAT TAISAN MUCDICH So quan sat Log Hkelihood LR chi- (13) Prob > chi
-2,860 0,696**
-0,459 2,109***
0,244' '-' 0,993***
0,166***
0,004 -0,405 -1,202*' ' -0,196
0,000 -0.004' '
1,703***
450 -827.116 238,60 0,000
.-_
0,402 -0,256 1,245 0,141 0,537 0,096 0,002 -0,233 -0,669 -0,114 0,000 -0.002 0.978
0,003 0,040 0,274 0,000 0,000 0,008 0,000 0,815 0,222 0,000 0,121 0,730 0,021 0.000
Ghi chu: (*): mUc y nghia 10'<: (**): mUc y nghia .Y'< vd (***): mUc y nghia I' Nguon: Nhom tdc gid tinh todn tU .so lieu tu khdo sal ndm 2011
cud'i cua B a n g 3 cho t h l y md h i n h n g h i e n cdu ddpc sd d u n g cd mde y nghia r l ' t cao (1%) t r o n g viec ddc lddng I n h h d d n g cua c i c ye'u td' cd l i e n quan de'n quye't dinh t h a m gia hui cua e l c c l n h i n t r o n g m i u k h i o s i t Ke't qua ddc l d d n g cho t h i ' y nhflng ngddi H m c l e n g h e khd cd t h e ddpc t l i t r p bdi cua e l c TCTD se cd d p n g cd t h a m gia h u i m a n h hdn bdi b i e n N G H E N G H I E P cd he sd dddng d mde y n g h i a 5%. Tuy n h i e n , quan d i e m dd'i vdi r u i ro H i k h d n g cd a n h h d d n g de'n quye't d i n h t h a m gia h u i cua e l c ca n h i n ddpc k h a o s i t do bien QDRUIRO cd h e sd k h d n g cd y nghia thd'ng ke. Nguyen n h i n cua h i e n t d d n g n i y I I do t h i m n i e n t h a m gia h u i k h i d l i (binh q u i n I I k h o a n g ba n a m cho t o i n bd m i u k h a o s i t ) h a y n h i e u d i y h u i chu ye'u bao gdm n h d n g n g d d i t h i n t h u d e , quen b i e t nhau n h i e u n e n m d e dp r u i ro t h e o n h a n dinh chu quan cua n h d n g ngddi t h a m gia I I thi'p va k h d n g a n h h d d n g de'n quye't d i n h t h a m gia h u i eua h p .
Ngflpc H i vdi quan diem dd'i vdi rui ro, ye'u to' lpi ich cd a n h hfldng rl't m a n h den quyet dinh t h a m gia hui cua c i c c l n h i n trong m i u k h a o s i t . T h a t vay, ke't q u i fldc Iflpng cho thi'y b i e n LOIICH cd he so' dfldng d mflc y nghia 1%, nghia H neu cho r i n g lpi ich tfl viec t h a m gia hui II du cao thi c i c c l n h i n se cd xu hfldng t h a m gia hui. Ket q u i n i y phu hpp vdi dien bien thdc te d nddc ta, dd II h i e n tdpng vd hui x l y ra k h i nhieu co ngddi t h a m gia hui t h d d n g quan t i m de'n lpi ich m£ Id H yeu to rui ro n e n de hi lfla dao. Mac du theo n h a n dinh chu quan cua mdi ngfldi, rui ro cd the k h d n g cao nhflng dd cd the I I sai l a m bdi rui ro do hui g i y ra thfldng rl't khd Ifldng vi chiu a n h hfldng cua nhieu ye'u to' td vi mo ( n a n g lflc t l i chinh cua ngfldi t h a m gia, kha n a n g cfldng che ngfldi t h a m gia, ke't q u i k i n h doanh cua ngfldi t h a m gia...) cho de'n e l c ye'u to' vi md (trien vpng t a n g trfldng cua n e n k i n h t e . H i s u i t n g i n h i n g , t r i e n vpng cua thi trfldng b i t dpng s a n , g i i chdng k h o l n . . . ) .
Ke't q u i fldc Ifldng cho thi'y thu n h a p cung cd I n h hddng de'n so' t i e n t h a m gia hui qua viec bien THUNHAP co he so' dddng d mflc y nghia 1%. Nhu cau d i p flng c l e chi tieu bl't thfldng cung I n h hfldng de'n so' t i e n t h a m gia hui vi bien CHIBATTHUONG cd he sd dfldng d mflc y nghia 1%. Tfldng td, bien THAMNIEN cflng cd he sd dddng d mde y nghia 1%. T h i m n i e n H m t a n g dpng cd t h a m gia hui do t h d i gian t h a m gia hui d l i CO the giup ngddi t h a m gia ed k i n h n g h i e m hdn trong viec h a n che rui ro v l H m t i n g
' Trudc khi phdn tich mo hinh hdi quy, nhdm tdc gid dd kidm dinh cdc gid thuydt cua mo hinh, dac biet Id hi&n tuang ddcdng tuydn giUa cdc hidn doc ldp. Kdt qud kHm dinh cho thdy cdc hidn ndy khong cd hien tuang da cong tuyen.
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lpi ich nhd cd kha n a n g chpn Ida ddi tac v l n h i n se t h a m gia tuy theo sd' t i e n nhan roi hinh thdc hui cd lpi n h l ' t cho minh. Ngoai cua minh.
ra, neu da cd thdi quen tham gia hui t r o n g
t h d i gian d l i thi il ngddi td b() no ma co K ^ t l u $ n xu hddng t i e p tuc vdi so t i c n ngay inol bin
hdn, t r d khi cd b i t t r a e xay la. Do r i t t i p n ldi v l cd ich n e n hui la hinh t h d c tin d u n g d i n gian k h i phd bien vl thu CIc bien TUOI, SOTHANHVIEN, GIATRIDAT h u t nhieu ngddi t h a m gia. Ldi ich cua hui v l HOCVAN cd cac he sd khong cd y nghia
thdng ke, cho t h l y cic yeu to nay k h d n g eo I n h hddng den dpng cd t h a m gia hui eua eac c l n h i n trong mau k h i o s a t . Trong khi dd, bien NOISONG cd be so I m d mde y nghia 1% Dd II vi nhflng ngddi song (i^ nong t h d n it cd cd hpi t i e p can TDCT n e n se eo dpng cd t h a m gia hui m a n h hdn; ngddc H i , nhflng ngfldi song a t h i n h thj cd nhieu eo ho i
t i e p c a n TDCT n e n it cd d p n g ed t h a m gia h u i , ngoai t r d m p t so' ngddi cd nghe n g h i e p dac thu n h d t i e u t h d d n g hay cdng n h i n v i e n .
Dung nhd ky vpng, bien GIATRITAISAN cd he so' I m d mde y nghia 1%, cho thi'y e l c t l i s a n de chuyen ddi t h i n h t i e n m a t se H m h a n che ddng Cd t h a m gia hui vi chung cd the giup e l c c l n h i n dap dng ddpc e l c nhu cau chi tieu can thiet, thay vi p h l i t h a m gia hui.
Cud'i ciing, neu cd muc tieu I I tao vd'n cho san xul't kinh doanh thi c l e c l n h i n se t h a m gia hui vdi sd t i e n Idn hdn so vdi mu dieh t i e t kiem hay m dich k h i c bdi vi khi td v i o linh vdc n i o d thddng p h a i ed sd t i e n trong khi de t i e t kiem
x u l t p h i t td vipe t i e n t i e t kipm eiia ngfldi n i y dflpc sd d u n g ngay de t l i trd cho ngfldi k h a c ma k h d n g phai chd de'n khi tfl de d a n h du l i e n . Tuy cd ldi n h d vay nhflng do tinh hfldng cua m d t so ye'u to' n h l ' t djnh nen k h d n g p h l i ai eung t h a m gia hui. Ke't qua k i e m djnh cho t h i ' y quye't djnh tham gia hui cua c l e c l n h i n trong mau khao sat phu thuoc vao eae yeu to nhd nghe
%i^ft n g h i e p . Idi ich, thu nhap, i ^ ^ ehi lieu bat thdOng, tham
' \ , nien tham gia hui, ncfi
^ / l -
sdng, gia tri tai san v l muc dich thamgia hui.
Trong cac yeu to t r e n . dang Iflu y n h a t la nhflng
ngfldi tham gia hui quan tam
nhitni den l(Ji ich ma Icf la ye'u td rui ro do chu quan.
That vay, ket qua nghien cu'u cho thay lpi ich cao thu hut nhieu ngfldi tham gia hui nhflng lai cd d e n 65,9% so ngfldi tham gia hui k h o n g cd bat ky h i n h t h d c hpp dong n i o v l 34,1%> con lai cd H m h p p ddng nhflng chi d d a n g giay tay khong
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ed day du gia t r i p h i p ly. C h i n h vi vay, h i e n t d p n g vd h u i do Ida d i o dien ra k h i phd b i e n t r o n g t h d i gian qua. De hui trd t h i n h m d t k e n h tin dung cd ich m l H i an t o i n cho ngddi d i n , c i c cl'p t h a m quyen can t h d c h i e n e l c giai p h i p sau: (i) Tuyen truyen r p n g r a i t r o n g n h i n d i n ve t i n h h p p p h a p cua viec t h a m gia hui (hui da ddpc chinh t h d c h d a b i n g Nghi djnh 144/2006/
ND-CP ban h i n h n g i y 27/11/2006 cua Chinh phu). Khi da t h d n g sud't t i n h t h a n cua Nghj d i n h n i y thi ngddi t h a m gia hui se m a n h d a n nhd de'n sd bao ve eua cd quan p h i p l u a t khi cd t r a n h c h i p hay Ida dao xay ra, qua dd H m g i a m mde dp rui ro cua hui; (ii) Quan ly e l c chu hui n h d H mpt chu the k i n h doanh cd d a n g ky h p p p h a p de giam t h i e u rui ro cho ngddi t h a m gia hui. Khi dd, hui se trd t h i n h m d t k e n h tin dung quan t r p n g de t a p h p p Idpng vdn con p h i n t i n t r o n g d i n c h u n g de gdp p h a n cai t h i e n thu n h a p cho mpi ngddi; (iii) Trong d l i h a n , c a n ed ehinh s l e h hd t r p sd p h i t t r i e n eua he thd'ng TDCT ( n h l ' t II d nhu'ng vung n d n g t h d n vi ke't q u i k h a o s a t eho thi'y cd de'n 38,9% so' ngddi t h a m gia hui sd^ng d n d n g t h d n v l 24,2% sd'ng t a i e l c chp xa d n d n g t h d n ) de d a n b i e n hui trd t h i n h mpt loai h i n h h o a t d d n g hflu hieu eua c i c TCTD t r o n g viec huy ddng t i e n n h i n rdi cua d i n c h u n g "
Tai lieu tham khao
1. Le Khuang Ninh vd Phqm Van Duang (2011), Phdn tich cdc yeu td quyet dinh luqng vdn vay chinh thdc cua hq ndng ddn d tinh An Giang, Tqp chi Cong nghe Ngdn hdng 60 (thdng 3/2011), trang 8-15.
• 2. Ambec, S. & Treich, N. (2007). Roscas as Financial i Agreements to Cope with Slef-control Problems. Journal , of Development Economics 82, trang 120-137.
, 3. Anderson, S., Baland, J., M. & Moene, K., O. (2009).
i Enforcement in Informal Saving Groups. Journal ofDevel- , opment Economics 90, trang 14-23.
, 4. Barslund, M. & Tarp, F. (2008). Formal and Informal . Rural Credit in Four Provinces of Vietnam. World Devel- j ophient 44(4), trang 485-503.
.5. Besley. T.. Coale. S. & Loury, G. (1993). The Econom- ics of Rotating Savings and Credit Associations. American Economic Review 83(4), Irang 792-810.
li. Calomiris, C , W. & Rajaraman, 1. (1998). The Role of ROSCAs: Lumpy Durables or Event Insurance?. Journal of Development Economics 56, trang 207-216.
7. Eeckhout, J., & Munshi, K. (2010). Matching in Infor- mal Financial Institutions. Journal of the European Eco- nomic Association 8(5), trang 947-988.
8. Gugerty, M., K (2007). You Cant Save Alone: Com- mitment in Rotating Savings and Credit Association in Kenya. Economic Development and Cultural Change 55, trang 251-282.
9. Gujarati, D., N. (2004). Basic Econometrics, Fourth Edition, McGraw-Hill.
10. Handa, S. & Kirton, C. (1999). The Economics of Ro- tating Savings and Credit Associations: Evidence from the Jamaican Partner. Journal of Development Economics 60, trang 173-194.
11. Imai, K, S., Gaiha., R. & Kang. W. (2010). Vulnerabil- ity and Poverty Dynamics in Vietnam. Applied Economics 33, trang 1-16.
12. Levenson, A. A. & Besley, T. (1996). The Anatomy of an Informal Financial Market: Rosea Participation in Tai- wan. Journal of Development Economics 51, trang 45-68.
13. Tanaka, T. vd Quang Nguyen (2008). Rosea as a Sav- ing Commitment Device for Sophisticated Discounters:
Fiel Experiment from Vietnam. Arizona State University.
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