NHiN L^I CHINH SACH XOAY T R y C DlXCfl THOI ClTU TONG T H 6 N G OBAMA VA N H U N G BIEU CfflNH H I | N NAY
Bang Trung Ddng*
Tdm tdt
Chdu A - Thdi Binh Ducmg van dang Id mgt khu vuc quy t^ cac nen kinh te phdt trien ndng ddng vd lan nhdt the gidi. Chinh quyen cuu Tdng thong Obama dd dich chuyen trong tdm sang khu vifc chdu A - Thdi Binh Ducmg thdng qua chinh sdch xoay true de Hoa Ky tiep tuc duy tri muc tieu chien luac bd chii the gidi vd ngan khong cho quoc gia ndo noi len thdch thicc My ve moi mat. Bdi viet sau danh gid vd nhin lai chinh sdch xoay true cda chinh quyen cuu Tdng thong Obama vd tdc dong cua nd tdi tinh hinh chinh tri, an ninh ddi vdi khu vuc chdu A - Thdi Binh Duang vd ddnh gid su tiep tuc cua chien luac ndy duai thdi Tong thdng duang nhiem Donald Trump.
Tir kh6a: chinh sach xoay true, tai can bSng, Obama
Tinh hinh the gidi tai thifi diem ban hanh chinh sach xoay true Boi canh quoc te la moi truong ma cdc quoc gia ton tai va ep xat Igi ich lin nhau, la nhSn t6 phai duac xem xet hang dau trong cong vi?c hoach dinh chinh sach doi ngoai cua moi quoc gia. Buoc vao thS ky XXI, the gioi ngay cang thay doi nhanh ch6ng, do vay cac quoc gia ciing phai dieu chinh chinh sach de theo kip voi nhimg xu the cua thai dai. Theo danh gia cua cac nha nghien cuu, mot trong nhiing xu the lan tren thS giai la xu huong cac quoc gia hpi nhap, lien ket kinh te khu vuc va lien khu vuc da tia nen manh me ban bao gid het. Day la ly do cho s\r ra ddi
* ThS, Pho Truong phong, Hpc vi^n Ngoai giao. Tac gia giri lin c^ao on toi nh6ra ho teg nghien cuu: Nguyen Thi Hoang Anh va D§ng Thiiy Huang.
Nghien ciru Qudc ti sd 1 (116)
cua cac tb chiic nhu Diin dan Hcfp tac Kinh te chau A - Thai Binh Duong (APEC), va moi nhat la Hiep dinh d6i tac toan dien va ti^n bp xuyen Thai Binh Ducmg (CPTPP). Ngoai ra, sau Chiin ttanh Lanh, xu thk da cue boa va phu thupc lin nhau ngay cang ro rang. Sau Chiin tranh Lanh, ben canh My la sieu cuong duge danh gia la co suy giam tuang d6i toan dien' la cac cuang quoc mai noi nhu Trung Qu6e va An Dp. Bihu nay phan anh cue dien the gioi da cue, My va cac nuoc Ion chi phoi quan he qu6c te. Ben canh do, cac quoc gia phu thupc lan nhau ve kinh te trong boi canh hpi nhap kinh tk. qu6c tS. Viec phu thupc lan nhau la ySu to co thi tac dpng den viec hoach dinh va dieu chinh chinh sach eiia cac quoc gia.
Tom lai, duai tac dpng cua toan cau hoa va cupc Cach m^ng Khoa hoc Cong nghe, tuang quan luc lupng sau Chien tranh Lanh, su can bang quyen lire tuang doi trong d6 khong c6 mpt nuoc lan nao co kha nang chi phoi hoan toan cac nuac khac. Tuong quan so sanh luc lupng giija cac nhom nuoc ttong quan he quoc te thay doi nhanh vdi s\r vuan len manh me eiia cac nen kinh te moi noi nhu Trung Quoc, An Dp. Ben canh do, cac chu the lien quoc gia (cac to chuc lien chinh phu, cac dien dan/ea che hpp tac tieu viing/khu vue/toan cau) va phi quoc gia (cac to chiic phi chinh phii, cac tap doan xuyen quoc gia) phat trien manh. Tat ca nhirng yeu to tten da co nhiing tac dpng nhat dinh doi vdi chinh quyen cuu Tong thong Obama ttong viec hoach dinh va dieu chinh chinh sach khi ma khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duang van dang noi len voi tdc dp tang truong kinh tl cao, khu vuc tap trung cac cuong quoc mai noi co kha nang chi ph6i dai s6ng chinh tri va kinh te the gioi.
B^i canh khu vyc chau A - Thai Binh Duong
Khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duang la noi tap trung cac cuong quoc ldn va mai noi, nai tap trung cac nen kinh te phdt trien nang dpng va ldn 'Wang Yusheng, "Balance of world power is changing rapidly", China Daily, ngay 28/12/2007, http://www.chinadailycom.cn/opinion/2007-12/28/content_6354925.htm.
nhat thi giai. Theo thdng ke cho th4y, Diin dan Hpp tac Kinh tl chau A • Thdi Binh Duong (APEC) chiim x4p xi 40% dan so, 44% thuang mai va hon 55% GDP cua thi gidi.^ Goldman Sachs du bao b6n nude nim frong khu virc chau A - Thai Binh Duang c6 nin kinh tl Ion nhit till gioi vao nam 2050, do la My, Trung Quoc, An Do va Nhat Ban.^
Khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duong khong chi la khu vuc co dan so ddng nhit thi gioi, ma eon la mpt trong nhirng khu vuc c6 nen kinh tS phat triin soi dpng nh§t, tap trung nhieu ciia cai nhat va ton tai nhi6u
"diim nong" cua thi gidi. My cho rang khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duong la nai tap trung nhieu lai ich eiia cac cucmg qudc lan co kha nang thach thiic cac "quyin lpi sdng con" va tham vpng ba quyen ciia My, Day ciing la noi tap tnmg nhieu nhat cac ttanh chap ve lpi ich, xung d^t tiem tang nhu van de hat nhan tten ban dao Trieu Tien, cac moi de dga dSn an ninh hang hai (Senkaku/Dieu ngu, Bien Dong). Viec ttien khai chmh sach xoay ttuc ciia chinh quySn Tong thong Obama sang chau A - Thai Binh Duong do do thuOc ve loi ich ciia My, nhat la vai nhan thiic la lpi ich do dang hi thach thiic.
"Hoa Ky phai ludn luon dan dau tten trudng quoc te. Neu chiing ta khong lam duac, khong ai co thi lam dupe."** Day la tuyen bd dudi thoi cuu Tong thong Obama tai Hpc vi$n QuSn su My a West Point (28/5/2014) ve muc ti£u chien lupe va xuyen suot cua My. Muc tieu chien lupe bao tnim eiia My van la duy tri vi the sieu cuong duy nhat va
^ Le Dinh TTnh, Chinh sdch doi ngoai My tit goc nhin hien thuc mdi- Trudng hop doi vai Vi4t Nam ke tic khi binh thuang hda quan he, Lu$n an Tiin sT (Ha Npi: Hpc vien Ngoai giao, 2013).
^ PwC Economics, World in 2050: the BRICs and beyond: prospects, chanllenges and opportunities (pwc, 2013), ngay 08/06/2014, http;//www.pwc.com/en GX/gx/world- 2050/assets/pwc-world-in-2050-repon-january-2013.pdf.
* Office of the Press Secretary, "Remarks by the President at the United States Military Academy Commencement Ceremony", The White House, ngay 11/6/2014, http://viww.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/05/28/remarks-president-west-point- academy-comraencement-ceremony.
NghiSn cim Qudc ti sd 1 (116)
vai tto lanh dao thi gidi ddng thdi ngan can cac cuong quoc khac noi len thach thiic vi tri, vai tto va lpi ich cua My. Lpi ich quoc gia cua My la bat bien. My can bao ve lai ich tten toan cdu. Cuu Ngoai trudng My Hillary Chnton (11/2011) da nhin manh: "Trpng tam ciia chiin lupe xoay true la tiep tuc bao dam su lanh dao cua My". Theo do, Hiallary Clinton da vach ra sau muc ti^u ttong chien lupe xoay true cua My la "cung co va that chat cac dong minh truyen thdng, day manh hpp tac voi cac cudng quoc mdi ndi, tang cudng lien ket vdi cac the che da phuang trong khu v\rc, day manh thuang mai va dau tu, tang cudng su hien dien quan sir, day manh dan chii va nhan quyen".^
De theo duoi muc tieu chinh sach xoay true, Hoa Ky da trien khai mot chiin luoc toan dien tten tat ca cac ITnh vuc, ca tten phuong dien hpp tac song phuang va da phuang, ma im tien hang d§.u cua My la bao ve va thit chat quan he ddng minh chien lupe va truyen thong. Trong phi^n diiu ttin diin ra tai Uy ban Doi ngoai Ha vien Hoa Ky (5/2014), cuu Trp ly Ngoai trudng My phu ttach khu vuc Dong A - Thai Binh Duong Daniel Russel da dl xuit khoan ngan sach danh cho cac boat dpng tai khu vuc Dong A - Thdi Binh Duang va day thi hien sir tiip tuc cam kit ddi vdi khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duang dua tren su hien dien tich cue va lau dai vdi tu each la qudc gia Thai Binh Duong. Daniel Russel cho rang: "mdi quan he ve kinh te, ngoai giao va chien lupe ttong khu vuc dang ttd nen manh me ban bao gid hit trong lich su".* Su kien danh diu sir tai khdng dinh vd cam ket cua My ma theo The Economist (3/5/2014), cuu Tdng thdng Obama da kit thiic chuyin tham tdi bdn
^ Clinton, H, "America's Pacific century". Foreign Policy, ngay 11/10/2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/1 l/americas_pacific_centUTy.
' Daniel, R, 'The FY 2015 Budget Request for the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs", U.S. Department of State, ngay 15/6/2014, http://wvTO.state.gOv/p/eap/ris/rm/2014/05/226360htm.
nuac chau A (4/2014), day duac coi la viec tai cam k8t v4 Idiang diih chinh sach xoay true day tham vong cua My a khu v u c '
VS chinh tri - an ninh, chiSn lucre quan su cua My duac dS cap trong
"Duy tri su lanh dao toan ciu cua My: Nhiing uu tien cho qu6c ph6ng U ky XXI" do cuu T6ng thong Obama va giai chiic qu6e phong My cong b6 ngay 5/1/2012 voi noi dung chinh la diSu ehhih trong tam tit Trang Dong sang chau A - Thai Binh Duang. Cuu Tdng thong Obama da co bai phat biSu trude Qu6c h6i O-xtray-li-a (11/2011), nhan manh v6 tiim quan trong va uu tien hang diu cua My doi vcji khu vuc chau A - Thai Binli Duang bang viec cam kSt uu tien hang dSu cho quoc phong va viec cat giam ngan sach qu6c phong se khong anh huong dSn chinh sach cua Hoa Ky doi vai khu vuc. Bo Qu6c Phong My khing dinh: "Ti6p tuc giii viing vai tro lanh dao toan ciu cua My - cac uu tien cho qu6c phong trong thi ky XXI. Nuac My se tai can bjng 6 khu vuc chau A - Thai Binli Duang".^ Theo mpt cuu quan chiic cap cao khac trong chinh quyen Obama, Tom Donilon la cuu co van an ninh Quoc gia cua Tong thong Obama, da co danh gia nhan xet ve chinh sach doi ngoai trong nhiem ky hai cua Tdng th6ng. Tom Donilon d6 cap mot trong nhiing tru cpt chien luoc cua My trong nam 2013 la tiSp tuc cung co cac dong minh chien luoc traySn thdng. Vao thang 6/2012, tai Diin dan Shangri-La d Xiali- ga-po, cuu Bp truong Qu6c phong My Leon Panetta tuyen bo quan My se b6 tri 60% tau chiSn a khu vuc Thai Binh Duong truac nam 2020 ie the hien My quySt tam "dich chuySn chien luge huang Dong". Ngoai ra, Hai quan Hoa Ky se tai b6 tri lai luc lupng, tit ty le khoang 50/50 thanh 60/40 giiia Dai Tay Duong va Thai Binh Duong vao nam 2020, bao gom sau tau san bay, phan ldn so tau tuan ducmg, tau khu true, tau chien ven
^ "Pivotal", The Economist, ngay 3/5/2014, http://www.econon)ist.coni/news/asia/
21601560-asians-got-inore-american-presideQt-lie-got-them-pivotal.
" "Sustain US global leadersliip: Prionties for 21 *' century defense", US Department oj
Defense, ngiy 09/06/2014, littp://www.defense.gov/news/defense_strategic_guidance.pdf.
Nghien cim Qudc ti sd 1 (116)
bien va tau ngim".^ Theo do, udc tinh cd Idioang 9000 thuy quan luc chien tir can cu Okinawa (can cii quan su cua My tai Nhat Ban) tiien khai sang cac khu vuc khac tiong khu vuc (chuyin 4,800 linh thuy danh bo tdi Guam, 2,700 tdi Hawaii va 2,500 tdi O-Ktiay-Ii-a).^**
Xet ve tdng the, My da cd nhung budc di cSn thiit ddi vdi trien khai va thi hanh chinh sach xoay true bang hang loat cac bien phap ngoai giao, quan su va kinh te nham day m^nh su can du va hien dien toan dien cua Hoa Ky ddi vdi khu vuc. Xet tren ea ba gdc do an ninh, phat triin va anh hudng thi My da cho khu v\re va the gidi thay vi tri lanh dao toan cSu cua minh trong viec chi phoi ddi song kinh tl chinh tri tren pham vi khu v\rc va the gidi.
Chinh quyen cuu Tdng thong Obama khong tuyen bd cdng khai chinh sach xoay true cda minh la nham ngan chan va kiem che Tmng Quoc. Tuy nhien, nhan dinh bang nhimg dong thai My tang cudng cac hoat dpng ngoai giao, quan su va kinh te de nhSm vao Trung Qudc la co CO sd. Mdt mat, My van coi Trung Qudc la ddi tac quan tipng trong viec hop tac giai quyet cac van de cua khu vuc nhu van de hat nhan tren ban dao Trieu Tien va quan trpng nira la hcfp tac v§ kinh te thuang mai My - Trung. Mat khac. My ra sue ngan chan va kim kep Trung Qudc tihu t$p hpp luc lupng, lien minh quan su vdi cac cuong qudc trong khu vuc.
Theo kit qua khao sat (5/6/2014) cua Trung tam Nghien cuu Quoc te va Chiin luge (CSIS), gidi hoach dinh chinh sach d hau het cac nude chau A ung hp My ddng vai tid manh me, chinh yeu d khu v\rc, cho du Tnmg
' Panetta, L, 'The US Rebalance Towards the Asia-Pacific", the Intemational Institute for Strategic Studies, ngay 01/07/2012,
http;//www.iiss.org/en/events/shangri%20!a%20dialogue/archive/sldl2-43d9/first- pleiiary-session-2749/leon-panetta-d67b.
'" McLeary, P, "US Pacific Shift Has Heavy Logistics Price Tag, Defense News, ngay 17/07/2013,
http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130717/DEFREG02/307170022/Special-Report- MiUtary-Logistics.
Qudc dupe du doan se trd thanh cudng qudc giii vai trd thdng tri. Theo cudc khao sat duac thuc hien vdi cac chuyen gia, nhiing ngudi khong lam viec ttong chinh phu nhimg dupe coi la cd anh hudng d 11 nuoc chau A, h4u hit cac nude, ngoai tru Tmng Qudc, deu ung hd manh me chmh sach xoay true sang chau A cua curu Tdng thdng My Barack Obama."
Ben canh nhiing mat tich cue, chinh sach xoay true cua My ddi mat vdi mpt sd thach thiic. Dd la cac vkn de noi tai cua My, dac bi6t la nin kinh te vEn trong qua ttinh hdi phuc, tang trudng thap, tham hut ngan sach ldn ciing nhu la mdc dp cam kSt cua Hoa Ky doi vdi khu vuc ttong khi My van phai cang minh can du va hien dien d mpt sd diem ndng o Trung Ddng nhu chuang trinh hat nhan ciia I-ran, van de Xy-ri, tien ttinh hda binh I-xra-en va Pa-le-xtin. Ngoai ra, My da cat giam chi tieu quan su fren toan cau do tinh hinh kinh te khd khan. Theo ban bao cao ciia Vien Nghien ciiu Hda binh Quoc te Stockholm (SIPRI), tuy My la nu6c cd chi tieu qudc phdng ldn nhat nam 2013 nhung My da giam 7,8% do cupc chien d I-rac va Ap-ga-ni-xtan va chinh sach eat giam dupe th6ng qua bdi Qudc hpi My. Chinh sach xoay true cua My gay ra nhiing boat nghi ve khoang each giiia tuyen bo va nhiing hanh dpng eu thi cua My.
Trong Thdng diep Lien bang (28/1/2014), Tdng thdng Obama khdng hk de cap tdi chinh sach Xoay true hay tai can bSng ma chi dl c^p khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duang d miic dp vira phai: "...tiip tuc tap trung vao chau A - Thai Binh Duong ttong viec hd tto cac ddng minh, xay dung mpt cau true an ninh tuong lai va thinh vupng v^ giiip da cac qudc gia chiu thiet hai bdi tham hpa". Dieu nay cho thiy sir quan tam chua diing miic so vdi cam ket ttong chinh sach ddi ngoai cua My trude dd. Cd the
" Theo di6u tra ciia Trung tam nghien cihi va Chiin lupe Qu6c tl (CSIS, 5/2014), phSn dong nguoi duac hoi ling hp chinh sach tai can bing cua My nhung lo ng^i vl each triSn khai Trung Qu6c la quoc gia duy nhSt mi phin Ion nguoi Augc hoi deu khong ung hp chmh sach nay cua My. Michael J. Green & Nicholas Szechenyi. Power and Order in Asia {CSIS, 2014).
3/2019
Nghien cim Qudc tisd 1 (116)
ndi cupc khiing hoang tai chinh van cdn am anh My va khien Hoa Ky khdng du tiem luc de can du nhu tnrdc. Cac quoc gia ttong khu vuc v ^ chua rd liSu My cam ket chiin lupe lau dai bSng cac bien phap eu the. '^
T^c dgng tdi chinh tri - an ninh cua khu viJrc
Thu nhdt, su hien dien va can du manh ban cua My cd the bao dam duy tri hda binh va an ninh khu vuc dua tten cac ca ch6 hop tac an ninh (EAS, ARF, ADMM+) va lien minh quSn sir. Dae biet cac cap quan he ding minh truyen thdng va chiin lupe vdi My (My - Nhat, My - Han, My - Phi-lip-pin) ttong khu v\re dupe cho la ddng gdp vao viec can bang quyen luc de ddi ttpng vdi Trung Quoc. Sir vi?e Trung Qudc ha dat gian khoan HD981 ttai phep vao viing dac quyen kinh te va them luc dia cua Viet Nam, viec gay han va cac hanh dpng don phuang ttong cac ttanh chap bien dao cua Trung Qudc cd the "thiie day" viec tap hpp l\re lupng tai khu v\rc, d?c biet la My va cac ddng minh nham kiem che Trung Qudc. Theo khao sat cua Trung tam Nghien ciiu Qudc t6 va Chien luac,'^
cac nude Ddng Nam A mong mudn "su hien dien lang le va lien tuc" cua My d khu vuc. Thu hai, chien lupe xoay true ciing giiip ngan can va kiem che cac thach thiie an ninh khac nhu van de hat nhSn cua Trieu Tien, phd biSn vii khi hiiy diet hang loat, an ninh dudng bien va an ninh phi tmyen thdng nhu khung bd, bien ddi khi hau, an ninh mang, an ninh ngudn nude...
Ben canh nhiing tac dpng tich cue den tinh hinh chinh tri - an ninh khu vuc, chiin lupe xoay true cua My lam gia tang lo ngai ddi vdi an ninh va dn dinh d khu vuc. Dd la xu hudng hinh thanh cac tap hpp lire lupng tay ddi, tay ba de ddi ttpng vdi My. Theo Vien Nghien ciiu Hda '^ AFP, "Wide Asia support for US despite China rise", Yahoo! News, ngay 06/06/2-14, https://au.news yahoo.com/thewest/world/a/24180060/wide-asia-support-for-us-despite- china-rise/.
'^ Michael J. Green & Nicholas Szechenyi. Power and Order in Asia (CSIS, 2014)
3/2019
bmh Qudc tl Stockholm (SIPRI), chau A din diu thi gidi vl chi tieu qudc phdng ttong nam 2013 ttong khi cac nude phuong Tay, BSe My, Tay va Trung Au va chau Dai Duang lai giam.'^ Phan ldn miic tang ciia khu vuc chau A la do chi tieu qudc phdng cua Trung Qudc tang 7,4%.
Trong so cac nude cd miic chi tieu qudc phdng ldn nhat the gidi nam 2013 (15 nude ldn nhit) ed cac qudc gia den tii chau A - Thai Binh Duong bao gdm My,^** Trung Qudc, Nga, Nhat, An Dp, Han Qudc v^ 6- xttay-li-a. Theo ban bao cao mdi nhit do LSu Nam Gdc gui Qudc hpi My vl qudc phdng Trung Qudc, ttong khi Hoa Ky cat giam chi phi quic phdng thi Trung Qudc da chi cho qudc phdng khoang 145 ty do la My, vupt xa eon sd 119,5 ty dd la ma Trung Qudc da cdng bd. Theo udc tmh cua Liu Nam Gdc, ke tu nam 2004 chi phi cho qudc phdng cua Trung Qudc tang tnmg binh khoang 9,4% hang nam.'^
Chinh sach Xoay true ve chau A cua cuu Tdng thdng Obama da dat dupe nhieu thanh cong budc dau. Tuy nhien, ttong nhiing nam cuoi nhiem ky cua Obama, chinh sach nay da mat di mpt sd dpng co va dinh hudng.'^ Tir cudi nam 2015, BIC Kinh ngay cang ttd nen quyet doan ttong nhiing tuyen bd chu quyen lanh thd tten Bien Ddng va Bien Hoa Ddng - dieu lam day l§n lo ngai la Washington da danh mat khd nang lanh dao ttong khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duong. Ngoai ra. My cung tiep tuc phai quan tam den cac van de d nhieu khu vuc khac nhu Nga,
'^ "World military spending falls, but China, Russia's spending rises", Stockholm Intemational Peace Research Institute, ngay 14/04/2014, http://www.sipri.org/media/pressreleases/2014/Milex_ApriI 2014.
'•* Theo ban bao cao ciia Vi^n Nghien cihi H6a binh q u i c te~Stockholm (SIPRI), tuy My la nuac c6_ chi tieu quoc phong Ion nhl.t nam 2013 nhung My da giam 7,8% do cugc chiin 6 l-ric va Ap-ga-ni-xtan va chinh sach cat giam dugfc thong qua bcri Qu5c hpi Mf.
'^ Nissenbaum, "D. Pentagon lays out challenge posed by china's growing military might", The Wall Street Journal, ngay 06/06/2014, http://online.wsj.com/articles/pentagon-iays-out-challenge-posed-by-chinas-growing- mihtary-might-140200545 8.
'^ Douglas T.Shiart, "America 's Pivot to Asia: A Eulogy or an Interim Report?", MCU Journal, vol. 8, no. 1 (2017): 2 1 .
108 3/2019
Nghien cim Qudc ti sd 1 (116)
NATO, Trung Ddng, Bic Phi cung nhu phai ddi phd vdi phat trien tinh hinh d I-rac, Ap-ga-ni-xtan, Ye-men va Xy-ri.
Su tiep tuc cua "Chinh sach Xoay true" dudi thdi Tdng thong Donald Trump
Khdng khd de du doan ve tuang lai cua "Chinh sach Tai Can bang"
hay "Chinh sach Xoay true sang chau A" dudi thdi Donald Trump. Giiia thang 03/2017, ba Susan Thornton - Trp ly Ngoai trudng phu trach cac van de Ddng A va Thai Binh Duong tuyen bd rang "tai can bang" da ket thuc.^'' Tuyen bd nay khdng gay ngac nhien ldn bdi nhu mdt truyen thdng, ngudi ke nhiem se xda bd nhung di san cua ngudi tien nhiem cho dii thupc ve cung mpt Dang phai. Ndi each khac, cho du dng Trump hay ba Clinton trd thanh Tdng thdng My, chinh quyen mdi se phat trien mpt chinh sach mdi ddi vdi khu vuc chau A - Thai Bmh Duong. Tai Dien dan Hpp tac Kinh tl chau A Thai Binh Duong (APEC) tai Viet Nam vao thang 11/2017, Tdng thdng My Donald Trump da de cap den thuat ngu
"An Dp Duong - Thai Bmh Duong" ttong chien lupe x^y dung mpt khu v\rc "An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duang tu do va md rdng". Mdt thang sau do, cum tir nay tiep tuc xuat hien nhieu lan ttong Chien lupe An ninh Qudc gia eiia Hoa Ky (NSS) nhu la mpt trong nhirng khu vuc uu tien va quan trpng cbiia dung nhieu lpi ich cua chinh quyen Washington. Cac ndi dung chinh ciia "Chinh sach tai can bang chau A" duac tiep tuc dudi thdi dng Donald Trump bao gdm: (i) Tang cudng cac mdi quan he ddng minh song phuang truyen thdng vdi Nhat Ban, Han Qudc, O-xtray-li-a, Thai Lan va Phi-lip-pin; (ii) ASEAN van la khu vuc ttpng tam ttong chinh sach ddi ngoai cua My; (iii) Kiem che sue manh quan su cua cac cudng qudc ttong khu vuc, dac biet la Trung Qudc thdng qua cac lien minh
" Ankit Panda, "Straight from the State Department: The 'Pivot' to Asia is over", The Diplomat, ngay 24/03/2017, https://thediplomat.coni/2017/03/straight-from-the-us- state-department-the-pivot-to-asia-is-over/.
quan su than can lau doi vdi Nhat Ban hay cac lien minh tiem nang, di^n hinh la An Dd;'^ (iv) Tiip tuc duy tri tiing ndi quyet dinh ciia mdt sieu cudng sd mdt the gidi va khang dinh vi thi, vai ttd la trung tam lanh dgo thi gidi trong viec giai quyet cac van de chinh tri - an ninh toan elu.'^
Thu nhdt, mdt sd ttien khai budc dau cua chinh sach khu vuc ciia My dudi thdi Tdng thdng Trump cho thay: ttong ban Chien lupe An ninh Qudc gia dupe dua ra vao thang 12/2017,^" Tdng thdng Donald Trump van de cao vai ttd cua cac he thdng ddng mmh cua minh d khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duong. 6ng nhan dinh vai ttd quan ttpng cua cac "nan hoa" ttong viec giai quyet cac mdi de dpa chung, dien hinh la Bic Trieu Tien ciing nhu viec duy tri lpi ich chung cua he thdng "triic va nan hoa"
tai khu v\tc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Ducmg. Theo Tdng thdng Donald Trump, Lien minh My - Han la mdi lien minh ban be tmyin thdng, duoc tdi luyen ttong sudt chieu dai lich sd lau ddi va radi liSn mmh nay dang manh ban bao gid het. Ong cung hoan nghenh va ling hd viec cac ding minh than can cua minh la Han Qudc va Nhat Ban cd thi tiip tuc phat buy vai ttd lanh dao cua hp ttong khu vuc. Ben canh dd, My tiep tyc coi ttpng O-xttay-li-a la qudc gia da chien diu ben canh My frong mpi cupc xung dot ldn kl tir Thi chiin Thii nhit ciing nhu tiip tuc thiic diy ck hiep dinh kinh tl va an ninh nham muc dich thiic diy lpi ich chung cho ca hai ben. Chinh quyin eiia Tdng thdng Donald Trump nhm nhan Niu Di-lan Ik ddi tac quan ttpng cua Hoa Ky ttong qua trinh ddng gdp vao hda binh va an ninh khu vuc.
'" Eleanor Albert, "What Future for the Asia Pivot Under Trump?", Council on Foreign relations, ngay 14/12/2016, https://www.cfr.org/expert-roundup/what-fiiture-asia-pivot- under-trump.
" Dinh Cong Tu5n, "Nhirng thay dii trong chiin luac 'Xoay trye chSu A - Thai Binh Duong' cua My trong thdi gian t6i va each ung pho ciia Viet Nam", Nghien cuu Bien Ddng, ngay 20/04/2017, htlp://nghiencuubiendong.vn/nghien-cuu-my/6495-nhung-thay- doi-trong-chien-luoc-xoay-truc-va-cach-ung-pho-cua-viet-nam.
^ National Security Strategy of the United States of America (The White House, 2017):
Nghien cuu Qudc te sd 1 (116)
Thu hai, ddi vdi khu vuc Ddng Nam A, Tdng thdng Trump van tiep tuc de cao vai frd cua cac ddng minh than can la Phi-lip-pin va Thai Lan mac du giai doan dau cam quyen, quan h? My - Phi-lip-pin cd dau hieu di xudng khi Phi-lip-pui day manh quan he ban vdi Tnmg Qudc. Quan he ddng minh My - Thai Lan lai dupe danh gia la cd dau hieu am len dudi tiidi cua Tdng thdng Donald Trump.^' Viet Nam, In-dd-ne-xi-a, Ma-lai- xi-a va Xinh-ga-po khdng chi la cac ddi tac kinh tl tiim nang ma frong tuang lai cdn la nhiing ddi tac ttong linh vuc an ninh. Viec thiie day mdi quan he vdi cac qudc gia nay nham ciing ed mpt friit tu ma frong do lay X\f do lam nen tang van dua tten cac ea che khu vuc va da phuang san cd nhu ASEAN hay APEC tii thdi cac Tdng thdng trade. Ddng Nam A vin duy tri vi tri uu tien ttong chinh sach thdi "hau xoay true" eiia Tdng thdng Trump; cac nude ttong khu vuc van duoc My nhin nhm la nhung doi tac tiem nang trong viec chia se lpi ich chung ttong ea linh vuc kinh te va an ninh khu vyc.
Thic ba, Tdng thdng Donald Trump duy tri va day manh cac chinh sach kiem che siic m^nh quan su cua Trung Qudc thdng qua cac lien minh quan sir than can lau ddi vdi Nhat Ban, Han Qudc hay cac lien mmh tiem nang, dien hinh la An Dp. Ong Donald Trump tiep tuc nhin nhan Trung Qudc va Nga la hai cudng qudc thach thiic anh hudng, an ninh va thinh vupng cua My khdng chi d khu vuc ma tten pham vi toan cau.^^ Dieu nay la nguyen nhan dan den quan he My - Trung gia tang cang thang va cudc chien franh thuang mai v^o nam 2018. Mpt ttong nhung bieu hien cua chinh sach kiem che Trung Qudc ndi bat nhat dudi thdi Trump la keu gpi hinh thanh tii giac kim cuang hay hpp tac tii cudng bao gdm My, Nhat Ban, An Dp va 6-xfray-li-a ttong bdi canh mpt An Dp - Thai Binh Ducmg rpng md va t\r do ban. Tdng thdng Donald Trump
^' "Southeast Asia/US: Ties will be mixed under Trump", Oxford Analytica Ltd. Ngay 29/12/2016.
^ National Security Strategy of the United States of America (The White House, 2017):
2,
hoan nghenh viec gia tang vai trd cua mdt cudng qudc mdi ndi la An Do bdi qudc gia nay khong chi sd hiiu dien tich rdng ldn, dan sd ddng dan nhit thi gidi ma cdn bdi vi tii dia ly cua nude nay vdi Trung Qudc. Hoa Ky nhan dinh viec thuc diy sir phat tiiln cua An Do - hang xdm chung bien gidi sd hiiu nang luc kiim che dupe Trung Qudc se tao nhieu frd l\rc ttong viec qudc gia nay hien thuc hda giac mdng Trung Hoa - thach thiic vi tri sd mdt ciia My. Chmh sach cua My ddi vdi Trung Qudc dudi thoi Tdng thdng Donald Trump ed xu hudng cung ran ban khi dng tap trung chi trich, diy manh mat canh ttanh, gia tang anh hudng thay vi dl cao vai frd eiia Trung Qudc nhu la "ddi tac sd mpt ve kinh XB". Mpt frong cac bien phap dupe dng Trump su dung la tang cudng cac lien minh da phuang kiim che sy ttoi day manh me ttd thanh ba quyen ciia Trung Qudc ben canh cac ca che song phuong lau ddi, truyen thdng, frong do dac biet de cao vai ttd cua An Dp.
Ddi vdi biin Ddng - noi dien ra franh chap ehii quyen gay gat, My van duy tri tieng ndi va sy hien dien quan sy cua minh d khu vyc nay nham dam bao ty do hang hai. Cd the thay, van de dupe quan tam va mi tien gi^i quyet cua nude My dudi thdi cua Tdng thdng Trump la khac so vdi ngudi tien nhiem, nhung muc tieu tiep tuc duy tri tieng ndi, vi the va vai frd tning tam cua sieu cudng ttong viec giai quyet cac van de khu virc la gan nhu khdng thay ddi.
Do do, van ed the nhan ra tinh ke thira trong chinh sach eiia My doi vdi khu vuc dudi thdi chinh quyin Trump. Ly do la ipi ich ciia My d khu vuc nay khdng thay ddi va My van phai bao ve lpi ich do. Tmh ke thira dupe the hi|n thic nhdt la qua viec thuc day quan he vdi cac dong minh song phuang truyen thdng. Thu hai la sy cdng nhan tiep tuc vai frd ciia ASEAN khdng chi la mpt thi tradng tiim nang ma cdn la mpt ddi tac quan trpng ttong viec duy tri mdi tradng hda binh, dn dinh cua khu vuc.
Nghien cmi Qudc te sd 1 (116)
TAIU$U THAM KHAO
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