Nghien cufu cac nhan to'
anh hu'dng t6i hanh vi lu'a chon phuong tien van tai hanh khach cong cong bang xe buyt
cua ngu'ofi dan d TP. Ha Noi
y a THj HcrdNG*
MGUYEN V A N KHOA"
Tom tit
Nghiin cffu duac tii'n hdnh nhdm xdc dinh cdc nhdn td dnh liUdng de'n hdnh vi lua chgn phuang lien van tdi hdnh khdch cdng cgng (VTHKCC) bang xe buyt cua ngUdi ddn TP. Hd Noi. Nghien cffu da chi ra 9 nhdn td tdc dgng de'n hdnh vi lffa chgn phuong tiin VTHKCC bang xe buyt ciia ngffdi ddn TP. Hd Ngi, bao gdm: (i) cdc nhdn td thugc nhdn khdu hgc: So' ngudi trong gia dinh sff dung xe buyt, Tudi. Thu nhdp, Cu ly di lgi binh qudn, Nghe nghiip:
(u) cdc nhdn td dinh tinh: Sff hdp ddn cda xe buyt, Chudn chu quan, Nhdn thffc moi trudng vd Su hdp ddn cua phucmg tien cd nhdn.
Tfl khda: hdnh vi lffa chgn. mo hinh hdnh vi. van tdi hdnh khdch cong cgng bdng xe buyt. hdi quy logistic nhi phdn
Summary
This sludy was conducted to identify factors influencing Hanoi residents' choice of public transport bus services. The outcome identifies 9 factors divided into two groups that affect their choice of public transport bus services, including (i) demo graphic factors such as Number of family members using bus. Age. Income, Average travel distance and Occupation; (ii) qualitative factors such as Bus attractiveness. Subjective standards. Environmental awareness and Attraction of personal vehicles.
Keywords: choice behavior, behavioral model, public transport bus services. Binary logistic regression
GI61 THIEU nam 2015 giam xudng con 469 tneu Ifldt, nam 2016 gidm edn 436 tridu Ifldt va nam 2017 dat 430 tneu Ifldt
^ Phdt trid'n phfldng thflc VTHKCC (Tuyet Mai, 2017). Do dd, vidc nghidn cttu cac nhan bdng xe buyt la xu httdng ta't ye'u cua cac td anh hfldng hanh vi lfla chon phfldng thflc VTHKCC qudc gia dang phat trien tren the gidi. bangxebuytcuangfldidandTP. Ha Npi la can thid't, ttt VTHKCC bang xe buyt da cd mat d Vidt do, dfla ra mdt sd giai phdp de day manh khai thac boat Nam ttt the ky XX, itn dau tien tai tiiu do dpng VTHKCC bang xe buyt cung nhfl thu hut ngfldi Ha Npi. Cho de'n nay, phfldng thttc van dan di xe buyt.
tai nay da gitt vai ttd ra't quan trong trong
viec dap ttng nhu cau di Iai cua ngfldi dan CO SO LY THUYET VA PHUONG PHAP TP. Hd Npi. Tuy nhien, trong vai nam trd NGHIEN CCu
lai day, sd Ifldng hanh khdch di lai bdng
xe buyt ed da'u hidu sut giam. Cu thd', Cd sd ly thuye't
nam 2014, tdng Ifldng hanh khach van Dfla trdn cdc ly thuyd't cd lidn quan ddn vide binh chuye'n dat 506 tiieu Ifldt, thi bfldc sang thanh y dinh va hanh vi, nhfl: ly thuyet hanh ddng hdp
. , Trudng Dai hoc Giao thong van tai
t^gaynhan bdi: 04/12/2019; Ngdy phdn bien: 19/12/2019; Ngdy duye! ddng 23/12/2019
ly cua Ajen va Fishbein (1975, 1980), ly thuye't hanh vidfldinhcua Ajzen (1991), mdhinh kd't hdp TPB va TAM cita Tayldr va Todd (1995) vd ly thuyd't hanh VI tieu diJng cua Philip Koter (2005), hanh vi sfl dung xe buyt la mdt bten dinh tinh dd dttdc nhieu tac gia sfl dung trong nghien cflu cua minh. Mintesnot G. vd cpng sfl (2007) da Ifldng hda hanh vi stt dung xe buyt la 1 khi dap vidn sfl dung xe buyt vd 0 khi dap vidn stt dung taxi. Trong khi dd, Elisabetta V. (2009) diing gid tri 1 ne'u ngfldi dfldc khdo sat nghi httu diing cua xe buyt eao hdn so vdi phfldng tidn ed nban (PTCN) va 0 cho dieu ngfldc lai. Yasasvi P. vd cdng sfl (2011) dilng gia tri 1 ne'u dap vidn sfl diing xe buyt lam phfldng ddn dl lai la va 0 cho sfl dung PTCN.
Cdc bie'n ddc lap tde ddng de'n hdnh vt lfla chpn phfldng tidn VTHKCC dfldc ehia thanh 2 nhdm, nhfl sau:
- Nhom cac nhdn to thupe ve nban khau hpc, bao gdm:
Sd ngudi thdn sff dung xe buyt: dfldc hinh thdnh dfla tren pham tru gia dinh trong nhdm yd'u to' xa hpi eua Philip kotler (2005). Mac dii bid'n ndy chfla dfldc sfl dung trong cdc nghien cttu trttdc, nhflng tdc gia dfla vao de kiem dJnh tieu rang ed mdi tttdng quan ndo vdi bid'n phu thude khdng.
Tudi tdc: hinh thanh dfla tren nhdm ye'u td cd nhan eua Philip Kotler (2005). Mdt sd nghien cflu thflc nghiem da tim ra md'i quan he ciia tudi tdc vdi nhu cau sfl dung phfldng tien edng cdng (PTCC), nhfl: tde dpng dfldng cua dp tudi dfldi 15 trong nghien cttu cua Mark W. Frankena (1978), tdc dpng am ctia nhttng ngttdi ve him trong nghien cflu cua Dargay J. M. va Hanly M. (2002)...
Gidi linh: hinh thdnh dfla tren nhdm ye'u td'cd nhan cua Philip Kotler (2005). Nghidn cttu eita Mark W, Frankena (1978), Tusbara T. vd cdng sfl (2013) cho tha'y, nff gidi dfldc kiem dinh tdc dpng dfldng dd'i vdi hanh VI stt dung PTCC.
Thu nhdp: dfldc hinh thdnh dfla trdn nhom yd'u td'cd nhan cua Philip Kotler (2005). Nelson G.R. (1972) tim dfldc anh hfldng am cua dan so' ed thu nhap ldn hdn 10.000 USD. Mark W. Frankena (1978) va Dargay J.
M. va Hanly M (2002) cung kiem dinh dfldc tdc dpng tidu cflc cua thu nhap vdi vide stt dung xe buyt.
Khodng cdch di lai: la yeu to' tdc dpng dd'n vidc sfl dung phfldng tien di lai va da dflpc kiem chttng tde dong tieh cflc de'n cau stt dung xe buyt trong nghien ettu cua Mintesnot G. vd Shin-ei T. (2007)...
Nghe nghiep: hinb thanh dtta ttdn nhdm yd'u to' ed nhan cua Phibp Kotler. Nghidn cttu ve PTCC eua Dargay J M. va Hanly M. (2002) cho tha'y, ngfldi ve hflu it cd nhu cau sfl dung xe buyt.
- Nhom cde nhan to' dinb tinh dnh hfldng dd'n hanb vi lfla chpn phfldng tidn VTHKCC, bao gdm:
Sff hffu ich cua xe buyt: hinh thanh dfla trdn ly thuye't kd't hdp C - TPB - TAM cua Taylor va Todd (1995). Nhieu nghien cflu thflc nghiem dd kiem chttng tde ddng tich cflc cua bie'n nay va hinh thanh tieu chi ddnh gia sfl hflu ich cua PTCC, nhfl; Beirao va Cabral (2007), Yasasvi P. va cpng sfl (2011).
Chd't luong dich vu.xe Inn t: Domencich T.A. va cdng sfl (1970) cho rdng; chat Iflpng dich vu xe buyt la nhan to quan trong tdc dpng dd'n hanh vi sif dung xe buyt vd cung dfldc chttng mtnh cd tdc ddng dfldng trong nghidn cflu cua All Ahmed Mohammedi va epng sif (2013).
Chudn chu quan: xua't hidn ldn dau trong ly thuyd't hanh ddng hdp !y (TRA) cua Ajzen va Fishbein (1975, 1980). Cdc nghien cflu thflc nghidm dd tim dfldc tde ddng dfldng cua chuan chii quan, nhfl;
nghidn cflu eua Heath Y. va Gifford R.
(2002), Chen C.F.va Chao W.H. (2010)...
Nhdn thffc moi irudng: da dttdc kiem chttng tdc ddng dfldng trong nhidu nghien cflu. Heath Y. va Gifford R. (2002) chflng minh dfldc yd'u td nay cd anh hfldng de'n hanh vi stt dung PTCC eua sinh vidn Trfldng Dai hpc Victoria. Dang Thi Ngpc Dung (2012) ket ludn, day Id nhdn td thtt hai tdc ddng tich cflc dd'n bid'n phu thude.
^H" hdp ddn cua PTCN: la rdo can dd'i vdt vide sfl dung PTCC vi nhflng ldi ieh cua nd. Nhieu nghien cflu thifc nghidm da lim ra tac dpng dm cua bie'n ndy va hinh thdnh thang do cho ifu diem cua PTCN, nhfl; Beirao va Cabral (2007), Chen CF. va Chao W.H. (2010), Dang Thi Ngpc Dung (2012).
Mo hinh nghien cii'u
Xua't phat tfl ly thuye't hanh vi Ifla chpn phfldng thttc vSn tai va tham khao cdc nghidn ettu trong va ngoai nttdc va dac diem tinh hinh kinh te' - xa hpi, dac did'm giao thong, dde didm van hdnh, chat Ifldng VTHKCC bang xe buyt d TP.
Ha Npi, nhdm tae gia de xua't md hinh nghien cflu vdt 11 bie'n. Tuy nhien, de' phiJ hdp vdi viec xfl ly dfl lieu, nhdm tdc gia tdch bien nghe nghiep ra thanh 3 bie'n, do Id: JOBl - sinh vien, J0B2 - khdi tfl nhan, J0B3 - khd'i nhd nfldc. Nhtt vdy, md hinh nghien ettu vdi ham hdi quy Logistic nhl phdn tdng quat ed 13 bien dpc lap la cac bid'n dai dien va gidi thich cho ede nhan td da chon va bie'n phu thuoc (BUS USE). Mn hinh nghidn cfludexuat, nhfl sau-
,!P(BUSUSE=lj\ „ ^
+ flAGE + fl^SEX -H /l^ DIS + /1 INC + /I, JOB, + [1J0B+ 13^ JOB + 8 ijjri
^l^,r,SER^lJ,,SUB:r..ENVliVB
PRIVATE + u' - ^ "
Trong do:
[J„:he sdtfldo;p,: h- .; i^g,
sai so cua md binh. •' 156
BANG 1: TONG HOP PHAM TICH DQ TIN CAY VA PHU HOP CUA THANG DO
,,y. ' " : " . ^ ^ .
Tan suat cac tuyen xe buyt nhieu thfli gian giu'a 2 chuyen henkengan
Ve sinh tren xe buyt tot va sach se Tren xe bu^t rat tien nghi (CO may lanh, he thd'ng am thanh..,) Nha cha xe buyl rat tien nghi (co mai che, co den .) Dl chuyen bang xe buyt thi thoai mai Su' dung xe bujt thi khong cang thang nhiT khi ldi xe Gta dinh khuyen tot nen su" dung xe buyt Ban be idiuyen toi nen siJ dung xe buyt Cdquan/tru'dng hoc khuyen l6i nen siJ dung xe buyt CWnh quyen thanh pho co chinh sich khuyen khich sufdungxebuyt
PhUcJng tien truyen th6ng khuyen khfch tfli siJ dung xe buyt Viec su'dung xe bujt gliip gidm tai nan giao thflng cr Ha Noi Viec s^ dung xe buyt giup giam tac nghen giao thong d m Noi
Viec sfi dung xe buyit gnip giam 6 nhiem mdi tru'dng d Ha N6i
PTCN thi linh hoat hcfn, co thi di den bat ki dau trong thanh pho, vao bai ki gici nao
Dung xe dap/xe mSy/xe htfi thi thuan tien hOn DUng PTCN thi tiT do hdn xe buyt Da CO tho] quen dilng xe dap/xe may/xe hOi Si dung cac PTCN tig't kiem thdi gian hOn
Ma hoa
BUSl BUS2 BUS3 BUS4 BUS5 BUS6 SUBl SUB2 SUB3 SUB4 SUB 5 ENVIR3 ENVIR2 ENVIRl PRIVATES PRIVATE4 PRIVATE!
PRIVATES PRIVATE2
H$ so'tdi nhdn to' 1
0 756 0.654 0.653 0 639 0 593 0 573 2
0.800 0.759 0 729 0 650 0 598 3
0 838 0.837 0 743 4
0 826 0.821 0.762 0 553 0.544
Cronbach's Alpha Tirng bi^n
0.823 0,821 0.827 0.816 0,806 0-751 0,735 0,759 0,751 0,791 0,802 0,863 0,838 0.779 0.663 0 744 0,642 0,665 0 791
Nhom
0 791
0.806
0.878
0,748
INguon Ket qu.i phan tich dtt nqhie
NUMBER: So thanh vien trong gia dinh CO siJ dung xe buyt; AGE: Tudi;
SEX: Gidi tinh; DIS: Ci( ly di chuyen binh quan ngay; INC: Thu nhap binh quan thang; JOB, • Sinh vien; JOB,: Khdi tKnhan; JOB,: Khdi nha ntrdc; ULTI: Si/
him ich cua xe buyt; SER: Chatlu'dng cija dich vu xe buyt; SUB: Chuan chii quan;
PRIVATE: Su" ha'p dSn cija phu'dng tten ca nhan; ENVIR: Nhan thtic moi tiKdng.
Phrftfng phap nghien c\t\x De thtrc hien nghien ciJu, nhdm tac gia da ttdn hanh Ichao sdt phong van trtrc ttep 400 ngudi dan tai 12 quan cila TP.
Hi Npi, dd la: Ba Binh, Hoan Kiem, Tay Ho, Long Bien, Cau GiSy, Ddng Ba, Hai Ba TriTng, Hoang Mat, Thanh Xuan, Bac Ttt Liem, Nam Tir Li6m, Ha Bong. Nghien ciJu duoc thiJc bten trong Mi gian tir ngay 15/03 den 15/04/2019.
Di? lieu nghien ciJu diTdc phan tich bang phan mem SPSS thdng qua cac btrdc: danh gia dd tin cSy Clia thang do bang he sd Cronbach's Alpha, phan tich nhSn td kham phii (EFA), phan tich hdi quy Logistic (Bill viet si dung each viet so thap phan Iheo chuan qudc te).
KET QUA NGHIEN CLJU
PhSn ti'ch Cronbach's Alpha
Ket qua cho tha'y. cac thang do thanh phan va cac bien quan sat cd tinh nha't quan cao {Cronbach's Alpha >0.7). Tuy nhien, trong nhdm Sir hiTu ich cua xe buyt (ULTI) co 3 bien quan sat la ULTI 4 (he sd tirong quan 0.238), ULTI 5 (he sd ttrdng quan 0.201) va ULTI6 (he sd tu'dng quan 0.277), he sdtUdng quan dang nhd hdn 0.3, do vay, ta loai 3 bien nay ra khdi nhdm. Sau khi loai bd 3 bten quan sat, he so Cronbach's Alpha cua nhdm da dirclc cai thien, lam tang dp tin cay cua bie'n Sir hffu ich cua xe buyt. Cac
BANG 2: TOMG H^P KET QOA CHAY KiEM DINH MO HJNH LOGISTIC _____
Variables in the Equation
Step 1' NUMBER AGE SEX DIS INC JOB- 1 JOB-2 JOB-3 BUS SUB ENVIR PRIVATE Conslani
B 1284 -0 048 -0,487 0,166 -0,011 0-413 -0.751 0.180 0.464 0-976 0.479 -0.078 -0.266
S.E.
0.107 0.017 0.385 0,217 0,000 0-307 0 117 0,237 0 207 0.214 0211 0.189 0 629
Wald 3.159 7 655 1-601 0.170 13 279 2 031 1,877 2 051 1 170 20,817
5,151 0-170 32-499
df Sig.
0.026 0.006 0.206 0 002 0 000 0.106 0,015 0 316 0.025 0-000 0.023 0,040 0,000
VIF 1.012 0.953 0.615 1.200 1.000 1.590 i.654 1,613 0.925 1 654 1.615 0.925 0.000
Ket qua Chap nhan Cha'p nhan Khonn chap nhan
Chap nhan Cha'p nha n Khong chap nhan
Chap nhan Khong chap nhan
Cha'p nhan Chap nhan Chap nhan Chap nhan Chap nhan
bien quan sdt khac ciing da cd md'i ttrdng quan vdi bie'n tdng phii hdp (> 0.3).
Ph9n tfch EFA
Ket qua phiin tich dii loai bd cac nhan to' cd he so' lai nhan td nhd hdn 0.5, bao gdm: SER 2, SER3, SER6, ULTI 1, ULT12; cac nhan to'cdn lai deu thda miin he so'tiii nhiin td ldn hdn 0.5. Ke't qua phep xoay varimax cung da riit gon tCr 5 nhdm nhiin to xudng cdn 4 nhdm nhan td; trong dd. nhdm nhan td' ban dau lii ULTI - Sir hiiu ich ciia xe buyt va SER - Chii't Iffdng dich vu ciia xe bu^t dffdc ghep viio mdt nhdm. Dffa tr6n ndi dung cac bie'n quan sat dffclc giff lai d hai nhdm, nhdm tac gia de xua't ten mdi cho nhdm bien nay la BUS - Sff ha'p dan ciia xe buyt (Biing 1).
Ki^m dinh mo hinh Logistic
Ke't qua chay md hinh Logistic cho tha'y, cac nhiin td' cd gia tri Sig. > 0.05. bao gdm: SEX (Gidi tinh) Sig.
= 0.206; JOB - 1 (Sinh vien) Sig. = 0.106; JOB - 3 (khdi tff nhan) Sig.= 0.316 dffdc loai ra khdi md hinh nghien cffu do khdng dam bao do tin cay (Biing 2).
Nhff vay, ke't qua chay md hinh Logistic nhi phan cho ham hdi quy cac nhan td nhff sau:
lP(BUS USE = ])\ ^ _ g 266 + 1.284NUMBER
\P(BUSUSE = 0)l
- 0.048 AGE -I- 0.166 DIS - 0.110 INC - 0.75/ JOB^
+ 0.464 BUS+ 0.976 SUB + 0.479 ENVIR - 0.078 PRIVATE +U^
Ket quii nghien cffu cho thii'y, cd 9 nhan tdtac ddng den hanh vi lffa chon phffdng tien VTHKCC bang xe buyt cila ngffdi dan TP. Ha Ndi, ciic nhan td nay tac ddng len bie'n phu thudc theo 2 hffdng:
- Lam tang xac sua't lffa chon xe buyt cila ddi tffdng nghien cffu - cac nhan td niiy cd he Sd P > 0, bao gdm:
NUMBER (Sd thanh vien trong gia dinh cd sur dung xe buyt), vdi ft = 1.284; DIS (Cff ly di chuyen binh
quan ngay), vdi p = 0.166; BUS (Tinh ha'p dan cua xe buyt), vdi P = 0.464;
SUB (Chuan chd quan), vdi p = 0.976:
ENVIR (Nhan thffc ve moi trffdng). vdi P = 0.479.
- Lam giam xiic suat lffa chpn xe buyt ciia dd'i tffdng nghien cffu - cac nhan to nay cd he sd p < 0, bao gdm: AGE (Tudi), vdi p = -0.048; INC (Thu nhap binh quan thang). vdi p = -0.110; JOB - 2 (khu vtfc tff nhan), vdi p = -0.751;
PRIVATE (Sff ha'p din ciia nhffdng tien ca nhan). vdi P = -0.078.
KET, LUAN VA IV^OT KHUYEN NGHI SO
K6't lu$n
Ket qua nghien cffu cho tha'y, cd 9 nhan td tac ddng de'n hanh vi lffa chon phtfdng tien VTHKCC bing xe buyt cua ngirdi dSn TP. Ha Ndi. Cu the. ale nhan to thuoc nhan khdu hoc. gdm: Sd ngirdi trong gia dinh sff dung xe buyt, Tudi, Thu nhap, Cff ly di lai binh quan, N|he nghiep; Cac nhan td dinh tinh.
goin: Sir ha'p djn cua xc buyt, Chuan chu quan. Nhan thffc radi trudng va Sff hap dan ciia PTCN. Mdi nhan td cd hffdng tac dong va mffc do inh hffdng khac nhau den hanh vi ltfa chon phffong ti«n van tai bang xe buji cffa ngffdi dan. Trong dd, nhan td Sd ngtfdi trong gia dinh s i dung xe buyi cd anh htfdns
tich cffc nha't. **
158
M$t so khuy§'n nghi Thff hai, hinh thanh cac tuyen buyt dac biet, nhiT:
Bi day manh khai thac hoat ddng buyt nhanh, buyt chat lu'dng, buyt danh cho cac doi VTHKCC bang xe buyt cung nhu" thu tifdng dac biet.
hit ngrftJi dan di xe buyt, nh6m nghien Thff ba. tang cifdng chfnh sach trd gia cho hanh cihi difa ra mot so khuyen nghi sau vdi khach su" dung xe buyt, dac biet la ngu'di ldn tuoi.
cd quan quan ly va dieu hanh giao th6ng Thff tu, tang cu'dng cong tac giao due, tuyen truyen, dothi, nhif sau: _ van dong ngifdi dSn sijf dung xe buyt nhif m6t ddng
Thff nhdt. nSng cao cha't ltfdng dich thai bao ve moi trifdng.
vu VTHKCC bang xe buj't, tang tinh Thff ndm, co chinh sach han che phifdng tien ca an toan, nhanh chdng cho loai hinh van nhan, nhif: tang phi trong giiJ phifdng tien, cam xe ca chuy6'nnay. nhan hoat dong tren mot s6'tuyen du'dng •
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