E] KHOA HQC - CONG N 6 H | :
DANH GIA PHAN BO XAC SUAT PHAT DIEN THUY DIEN BAC THANG SDN LA - HOA BINH
IVln Tri Diing
Gidi thieu
Bai bao trinh bay tdm tat k i t q u i tinh toan d i n h g i i phan bd xle suit p h i t dien cua thuy dien bac thang Sdn La - Hoa Binh (SL-HB) theo md hinh ngau nhidn va ky thuat md phdng Monte Carlo nhuda trinh bay trong [TK1]
v l [TK2]. Chuoi dfl lieu ddng ehly hdn mdt t r i m nam (tfl 1903 d i n 2007) cua sdng O l do tai tram thu]J' van Pa Vinh va tram thuy van Hoa Binh dflpc dung de tim ham p h i n phdi xac suit ddng chay thich hpp cho cle Input data.
Mdt dieu can nhan manh la, n l u cd nhflng n h i m i y thuy dien phia tren Sdn La (thudcT.Qudc) thi k i t q u i tinh toan cd the khac di vi khi dd dfl lieu ddng ehly vao hd Sdn La se phu thudc vao quy t i e van hanh efla nha may thuy didn nam tren nd. Chinh vi vay, khi danh g i i hole ban ve quy t i e dieu t i l t thuy dien bac thang Sdn La-Hoa Binh, ta can p h l i b i l t hanh vi hay quy trinh van hanh cua it nhat mdt nha m i y thu^i' didn gan n h l t phia trdn Sdn La nam trong Ilnh tho Trung Qudc.
Oe d i n h g i i phin bd xle suit p h i t didn cua thu;}' dien ble thang Sdn La - Hol Binh, t i c g i i bai b l o dung soft- ware md phdng Monte Carlo"ModelRisk 4.0 Standard"!.
1. Mdc dam bao vs do riii ro
Nhu d l trinh b i y trong [TK2] va [TK3], Uu t h i hay diem manh cua md hinh ngau nhidn v l md phdng Monte Carlo la cae k i t q u i d i u ra (outputs) khdng p h l i chi I I 1 g i i trj m l I I mdt mien gia trj, tfle I I mdt tap n g i i trj vdi n la sd lan md phdng, chang han n l u n = 10.000 thi khi do moi output se cd 10.000 g i i trj khic nhau, dflpc x l p x l p tfl t r i i sang p h l i theo tflng nhdm (bin) cd gia trj tang dan tfl min den max dfldi dang phan bd tan x u l t tUdng ddi (Hinh la) hole p h i n bd tan x u l t tfldng ddi cdng ddn (Hinh lb).
Ta sddung hinh la, 1 bde gill thich "mfle d i m b l o " ddi lap vdi "dp rui ro".
Trdn Hinh la ed 50 bin, mien g i i trj hay dp rdng cua moi bin bang (max-min)/50; true tung bieu thj t i n x u l t tUdng ddi cua moi bin (sd lan x u l t hidn cac g i i trj output nam trong mien g i i tri cua bin / n), true hoanh la g i i trj output tfl min = 12.32 d i n max = 28.05
Tren Hinh l b , true tung b i l u thj tan x u l t tuong ddi cdng ddn eua cac bin, dfldng nhiln tong tan x u l t tfldng ddi bing 1 v l vi the true tung cd g i i trj Idn n h l t la 1; true hoanh la gia trj output tfl min = 12.32 d i n max = 28.05.
1 ModelRlsk Standard- http://www.vosesoftware.com/home.
php completely free of charge!
24 Dien & Ddi song
NhUvay, k i t q u i md hinh ngau nhien va md phdng Monte Carlo cho phep ta biet phan bd xle suit efla output tfle la hau nhfl t o i n bd 100% cle g i i trj nghiem c d t h l xiy ra cua mdt output. Tuy nhien, trong thuc t l ddi tflng bai t o i n cu the, ngfldi ta khdng the hole khdng ndn quan tam d i n toan bd mien gia trj nghiem ma chi can quan tam den mdt phan mien g i i trj nghidm efla output ma thdi. Chang ban nhfl trdn hinh l a (hole lb), n l u ta chi quan tam hay mong mudn gia trj nghidm cua output x nam trong mien 75% ben p h l i , nghia I I chi quan t i m d i n g i i trj 16.34 ^ x
< 28.05 va 100% -75% = 25% gia trj x n i m trong mien con lai 12.32 < x < 16.34 la d i l u khdng mong mudn xiy ra.
Khi dd ta cd the ndi output x ed " mfle d i m blo 75%" de 16.34 < X < 28.05 vaoutputxcd"dd rui ro 25%"de 12.32
< X < 16.34.
HtotDgram Plot for HB_Jm_1_MWh
0.077 0.070 0.063 0J)fi6
X =16.34
Hinh la- Output dudi dang phan bo tan xuat tUdng doi
AKandlng Cuimihrtlim PMfcr HB_JHI_1 JWWh
12 « " ^ . ^ - •'•
1=16.34 u».
Hinh 1 b- Output dUdI dang phan bo tan xuat tUdng doi cpng don
KHOA HQC CONG NGHf: Q
N h flng k h i i n idm v l "m fle d i m b l o " vs "dp rfl i ro" se dflpc dflpc dung khi ndi v l phan bd xle suit p h i t didn efla thuy dien b l e thang Sdn La - Hoa Binh.
2. IMd phdng phan bd xac suat phat dien thuy dien bac thang SL-HB
Khi ndi ve khi nang phat di$n hay phan bo xac suat phat dien cua thuy difn b|c thang Son La - Hoa Bmh phli gin vdi gii thiet ring quy tic dieu tiet muc nude thupng lim hai ho chua SL- HB theo diing muc nude thupng luu dim blo % nao ? ching hgn 95, 85, 75, ... hole th^m chi 50%
cua outputs miic nude thupng luu 2 ho chiira da cho trong [TKl] va [TK2].
Mfle nfldc thupng Iflu d i m b l o hpp ly dUdng nhien p h l i bao gdm nhilu phUdng I n kha thi de ngudi d i l u hanh lfla ehpn. Ngfldi fla 'mao hiem' de chap nhan phfldng an % mfle nfldc thflpng luu d i m b l o thap (chang ban 50%, nfla dflpc nfla mat) de ky vpng cd the nhan nang lupng p h i t didn Idn, nhflng rui ro cung Idn (50%). NgUpe lai, ngfldi 'than trpng' cd the lUa ehpn phfldng I n % mfle nfldc thUdng Iflu d i m b l o cao chang ban 75%, de ky vpng cd the nhan n i n g Ifldng p h i t dien vfla p h l i , nhflng it rui ro (25%) Tuy theo dien b i l n thflc t l , ngUdi dieu hanh hoin toan cd k h i n i n g dieu chinh quy t i e khai thIe theo y mudn. Vdi chUdng trinh © va k i t q u i eho trong [TKl] v l
[TK2], ta ed t h i ehpn quy t i e d i l u t i l t mfle nfldc thUdng Iflu hai hd chfla SL- HB vdi b i t ky mfle % d i m b l o nao.
Dfldi day, de lam vi du v l phUdng p b l p luan, trinh bay k i t q u i md phdng p h i n bd xle suit p h i t didn efla thuy dien bae thang Sdn La - Hol Binh dUa tren quy t i e dieu t i l t mfle nude thfldng Iflu hai hd chfla SL- HB vdi mfle d i m b l o 75%.
Sofware "ModelRisk 4.0 Standard" dfldc dung cung cac b i n g tinh trong [TKl] va [TK2] d l md phdng phin bd xle suit theo thdi doan 10 ngay cua elc outputs: nang Ifldng p h i t didn cua SL, HB v l c l bac thang; Iflu Ifldng tfldi ha Iflu HB mua kiet. Sd thdi doan md phdng 3 x 1 2 t h i n g (tfl dau t h i n g ehin, bat dau tich nfldc hd chfla d i n cudi t h i n g slu nam sau, cudi mua x l nude hd, chuan bj tham gia cat lu ha du sdng Hdng va hai thing b i y & t i m mua lu). Input Data cho md phdng la cle ham phan bd xle suit lUu lupng ddng ehly (mVs) thdi doan 10 ngay vao hd SL va lUu lupng khu gifla bo xung vao hd HB. Chuoi dfl lieu ddng ehly hdn mdt t r i m n i m (tfl 1903 den 2007) cua sdng Oa do tai tram thuy van Pa Vinh va tram thuy van Hoa Binh dUpc dung de tim ham phin phdi xac suat ddng ehly thich hpp cho cle Input data. Sd mau md phdng n = 10.000. Trich dan mdt phan k i t q u i md phdng cho tren elc Hinh 2, Hinh 3a,3b va 3c. Cle k i t q u i trdn Hinh 2 dupe trinh bay chi t i l t trong bing 1.
Hinh 2 Bieu do mfle nUdc thupng lUu ho, nang lUpng phat dien SL, HB va Q^^ miia l<let.
Dien A Ddi song 25
E] KHOA HQC - CONG NGHf:
Thdi doan Sep_1 Sep_2 Sep_3 Oet_1 Oct_2 Oct_3
Nov_1 Nov_2 Nov_3 Dec_1 Dec_2 Dec_3 Jan_1 Jan_2 Jan_3 Feb_1 Feb_2 Feb_3 Mar_1 Mar_2 Mar_3 Apr_1 Apr_2 Apr_3 May_1 May_2 May_3 Jun_1 Jun_2 Jun_3 Jul_1 Jul_2 J u l J
Aug_1 Aug_2 Ag_3
SL_75%
Z.,u(m) 195.00 201.35 206.89 209.94 212.26 214.36 215.00 215.00 215.00 215.00 214.88 215.00 215.00 213.82 213.27 213.30 211.02 209.56 207.74 205.33 202.66 199.54 194.17 191.73 184.92 180.00 180.00 180.00 180.00 180.00 190.00 190.00 190.00 190.00 190.00 190.00
Z 4m)
CUOI ^ '
201.35 206.89 209.94 212.26 214.36 215.00 215.00 215.00 215.00 214.88 215.00 215.00 213.82 213.27 213.30 211.02 209.56 207.74 205.33 202.66 199.54 194.17 191.73 184.92 180.00 180.00 180.00 180.00 180.00 180.00 190.00 190.00 190.00 190.00 190.00 190.00
E„^(tr.kWh) 172 < E <564 138 < E <576 179 < E <568 181<E <576 164<E <576 216<E <576 171<E <539 172<E <539 170<E <539 120<E <280 107<E <267 114<E <273 149<E <277 114<E <244 83<E <211 189<E <250 142<E <201 156<E <215 150<E <183 153<E <191 159<E <195 231<E <340 123<E <230 219<E <314 179<E <347 75<E <247 75<E <244 133<E <391 203<E <391 283<E <391 377<E <486 398<E <486 401<E <486 386<E <486 371<E <486 397<E <486
Z..u('")
100.00 103.55 107.13 111.49 114.28 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 114.86 114.87 114.06 114.67 113.46 113.21 113.21 113.51 114.07 114.41 115.00 114.73 109.95 99.55 90.86 86.57 85.81
90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00
Z 4m)
cuor '
103.55 107.13 111.49 114.28 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 114.86 114.87 114.06 114.67 113.46 113.21 113.21 113.51 114.07 114.41 115.00 114.73 109.95 99.55 90.86 86.57 85.81 80.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00
HB_75%
E,5^(tr.kWh) 183<E <438 95<E <535 80<E <523 120<E <755 187<E <934 261<E <665 199<E <557 199<E <556 199<E <558 135<E <294 123<E <280 129<E <285 163<E <280 123<E <247 133<E <254 163<E <227 207<E <270 175<E <239 158<E <192 150<E <197 151<E <194 254<E <389 127<E <257 304<E <433 482<E <726 455<E <512 357<E <392 272<E <344 276<E <388 280<E <301 327<E <350 328<E <350 324<E <350 323<E <351 324<E <351 328<E <351
Qtu6i7s%(mVs)
- -
- - - - - - - - - - -
810< Q < 1143 1042 < Q <1387 880 < Q < 1230 797 < Q <1031 757 < Q < 940 756 < Q < 970 -
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
"
26
BIna 1 Trinh bay cle kit qua ehi tilt cua ele bilu dd trong Hinh 2.
Dien & Ddi song
Hinh3.a -Phan bd x i c suit ningIflpng c l nam SL: mln= 6.92;
8.20< E75% < max=
10.01 tykWh
Hinh3.b -Phin bd xle suit nangIfldng e l nam HB: mln=7.97;
8.95< E75% < max=
ICSeti-kWh
Hinh3.c -Phin bd xac suit n i n g lupng e l nam efla to hpp bac thang:m/n=15.21;
17.70<E75%<mox 20.30 ty- kWh
0.077 0.070 0.063 0.066 0.049 I 0.O42 : 0.036 0.02B 0.021
0.014 0.0O7 0.000
KHOA HQC - CONG NGHf: Q
Histogram Plot for Sum_SL_yearly_MWh
S«ni_SL_yearty_MWh - SABS67 (scale lactor = 10*5)
Histogram Plot for Suin_HB_year1y_MVVh
7 5 % 8 . 9 5 < E 7 5 % < 10.56 tJ
7 mln~7.97
Histogram Plotfor Suin_To_yeariy_MVVh
max=20.30 05
Nhan xet
Bac thang thu^ dien SL-HB la ngudn p h i t dien quan trpng trong he thdng dien Viet Nam. Chi cd hieu b i l t day du v l chinh xac ve k h i nang eung nhU gidi ban cua cdng trinh mdi cd the khai thIc hpp ly nd. Vide nghien cflu t o i n didn, s l u rdng b l e thang Sdn La- Hoa Binh ndi rieng va cle nha miy thu^/ dien trong he sdng Hdng va c l nUde ndi ehung de cd eli nhin tong the ve to hdp thuy didn trong he thdng dien, ky vpng nhflng gi la cd the, nhflng gi la khdng the, nhflng gi la gidi ban, g i i m thieu t i c ddng tinh ngau nhien cua thdi t i l t ma ngUdi ta hay vidn dan nhU:'lu sdm, khac nghiet','bat ngdi'khd ban ky luc','biln doi khi hau', t r i n h nhflng ngd nhan ehu quan.Thlt la nghjch ly v l t h i l u trach nhiem khi ngUdi ta, mdt mat hd hao " t i l t kidm ning Ifldng", "an ninh nang lfldng'"'tlng g i i didn"..., trong khi mat khac, ngfldi ta vd tinh hay cd y bd qua nhflng g i l l p b l p k h i thi v l q u i n ly ky thuat n h i m ning cao hidu q u i sfl dung cle cdng trinh d l cd I
Tai lieu tham khao:
1. Khai t h I c hpp ly bac thang thuy didn Sdn La- Hoa Binh -Trin Tri Dung, tap chi"Oien &Odi sdng"sd 142 t h i n g 2/ 2011
2. Khai t h I c hpp ly b l e thang thuy' didn Sdn La- Hoa Binh - Phan II- Md hinh ngau nhidn v l md phdng Monte Carlo-Trin Tri Dung, tap ehi "Oien & Odi sdng"sd 143 t h i n g 3/ 2011 & Md hinh ngau nhidn v l md phdng Monte Carlo Thuy didn b l e thang Sdn La - Hda Binh.[22/03/11] http://www.vncold.vn/Web/Content.aspx?distid=2614
