Tac dong cua dau tu" cong den
tang tru'dng kinh te d vung Tmng du va mien nui phia Bac
Tom tat
Chinh sdch ddu tu cong (DTC) da hd trg suphdt trien cho vung Trung du vd mien nui phia Bac (TDMNPB). Mac du DTC dd co tdc dgng lich cue di'n sffphdt trien cua viing TDMNPB ndi chung vd de'n tdng trudng kinh te(TTKT) noi rieng, song co dd'u hiiu thii'u ben vffng. Nghien cffu sff dung mo hinh kinh li'lugng de phdn tich mdi quan he giffa TTKT vdi DTC, ddu tu tu nhdn (DTTN) vd cdc nhdn td khdc trin ca sd dff lieu thu thgp tff 14 tinh thuoc VCing, qua 5 ndm (2015-2019). Kit qud nghien cffu cho thdy, DTC cd tdc dgng tich cue de'n TTKT cua Vung;
hieu qud tdc dgng thdm chi cao han so vdi cd nudc vd so vdi viing Dong bdng song Hong; DTC giup gia tdng viec ldm vd dong gop cda nhdn td lao dgng de'n TTKT... Tuy nhiin. DTC chua that s^ CO tdc dgng tich cue den DTTN. thi hien d dong gop cua DTTN den TTKT cdn hgn che vd dieu ndy cdn dugc hodn thien nhdm ddm bdo sffphdt trien ben vffng trong thdi gian tdi.
Tii khoa: ddu tu cong, tdng trudng kinh ti', Trung du vd mien nui phia Bac. ben vffng Summary
Policies on public investment have recently assisted the development of the Northern midland and mountainous region. In spite of the positive impact of public invesiment on the development of the region in general and on the economic growth in particular, there are some signs of unsustainability. Based on data collected from 14 provinces in the region over the period 2015-2019, this study uses econometric model to analyze the relations between economic growth, public investment, private investment and other factors. The results show that public investment has a positive influence on economic growth and this effect is even higher than that of the whole country or the Red River Delta region; public investment helps to increase employment and the contribution of labor factors to economic growth, etc. However, public investment does not really create a positive impact on private investment because of the fact that the contribution of private invesiment lo economic growth is limited, which needs to be addressed to ensure sustainable developmeni in the coming time.
Keywords: public investment, economic growth. Northern midland and mountainous region, sustainability
C l 6 l THIEU nay dddc dinh gia la chUa Wdng xiJng vdi tiem nang va cac ngu6n life dau trf, nha't 1^ v5'n DTC. Phan tich V6'n d£u ttr \k m6t trong nhij^g ngu6n tac dgng cua DTC den TTKT vung TDMNPB de co lire kh6ng th^ thid'u d^ thifc hien TTKT. cai nhin cu the vii day du hdn ve vai tro cua DTC doi Trong tong v6'n dau tiT, vd'n DTC la mgt vdi TTKT cua Viing \k mdt nghien ciJu cd tinh cap thi^t bd phan ca'u thanh quan trgng cd tac dgng trong bo'i canh hien nay.
den TTKT ca ve phia t^ng cung vh. tong ^ clu. ca vg so lUdng va cha't lifdng. Nhan C a _ S d LY THUYET VA PHl/ONG PHAP thu'c dUdc vi tri quan trgng va net dac thii NGHIEN CUU
cua viing TDMNPB, trong thdi gian qua
Dang va NhS niTdc da danh sU UU tien Tong quan v l tac dong cua d i u trf cdng tdi TTKT dac biet, hd trd srf phat trien cho vting Vai tro cua vd'n dau trf ndi chung va vo'n DTC ndi TDMNPB mot cdch toan dien thdng qua rieng dd'i vdi TTKT da drfdc nhan manh trong cdc mo chinh sdch DTC. Tuy nhidn, srf phdt trien hinh TTKT ttf trrfdc de'n nay. Tdc ddng cua DTC den kinh te - xa hdi (KT-XH) cua Viing den TTKT tCf phia cau drfdc trinh bay rd trong quan diem
*PGS, TS., Tru'dng Dgi hpc Kinh te Quoc dan
Ngdy nhgn bdi: 08/6/2020; Ngdy phdn bien; 22/6/2020; Ngdy duyet ddng: 25/6/2020
Economy and Foreca(.t Review
cua trrfdng phai kinh te hgc Keynes. Theo Keynes, thi trrfdng khong bao gid hoat ddng hoan hao, nen cin cd srf can thiep cua chinh phii de tang cau cd hi6u qui, kich thich tieu diing, san xua't, kich thich dau trf d^ ddm bdo viec lam va tang thu nhap. Hai cdng cy quan trpng ma chinh phu suf dung de can thiep vao nen ldnh t^'la chinh sach tien te va chinh sach tai khda. Trong cdng cu tai khda, DTC la khoan chi cd tac dung k6p: (i) Mot mat, DTC la khoan tieu dting trrfc tiep lam tang tdng cau; (ii) Mat khac, nd kich thich DTTN thdng qua hieu rfng lan tda.
Vdi trrfdng phai Tan cd didn, 1;^ thuye't tdng trrfdng ndi sinh cho rang nhifng tien bd khoa hgc, cdng ngh6 cd nguon gd'c lU ben trong md hinh, do vay tSng trrfdng nang sua't drfdc tao ra tif tang trrfdng von thong qua cac cd che' hgc qua cdng vi6c va tac ddng lan tda vi cdng nghd (Durlauf va Blume, 2010). Theo dd, DTC se tac ddng tdi nang sua't thong qua cung cap cac hang hda cdng cdng, nhrf: ha ting giao due, y te', nghien crfu va phat tridn, tac dgng gian tid'p tdi TTKT trf phia cung. Nhrf vdy, DTC tac dgng dd'n TTKT trf hai phia la tdng cung va tdng clu, bdng hai hinh thu'c trrfc tid'p va gidn tid'p.
Ve thrfc nghiem, cac nghien crfu cung da chi ra tac ddng cua DTC den TTKT trdn ca hai hrfdng tich cu'c va khdng tich crfc. Theo hrfdng tich crfc, cd thd kd den cdc nghien ciJu cua Ebert (1986), Costa cung cgng srf (1987) va Deno (1988), trong do su'dung phrfdng phap ham san xuat dd danh gid tdc ddng cua DTC de'n TTKT va cho tha'y: DTC cd vai trd quan trpng; DTTN va DTC CO tdc dgng bd sung; DTTN va DTC khdng phai la tac dgng thay the'ISn nhau; co md'i quan he thuan chidu ro rang giifa DTC vd tang trrfdng san Irfdng, cung nhrf cd srf khdc bidt rd rdt vd mat thdng ke giii'a tdc ddn§ cua DTTN va DTC vao tang trrfdng san lu'dng; dong thdi cho thay, trong khi DTC cd tac ddng tich crfc vdi san Irfdng, thi DTC lam giam tdc ddng cua DTTN trong giai doan nay (Barro, 1990; Nazmi va Ramirez, 1997).
Tuy nhien, trong mdt so trrfdng hdp DTC co the lam han che'DTTN, khi ma khu vrfc cdng tao ra hang hda va dich vu cd srfc canh tranh cao ddi vdi khu vrfc trf nhan (Ramirez, 1994; ErenburgvaWohar(1995).
d Viet Nam, ket qua nghien cihi ciia Nguyen Drfc Thdnh (2008) cho tha'y, DTC da gdp phan cai thidn kd't cau ha tang ndng nghidp vd ndng thdn, ddi mdi td chrfc san xuat ndng nghiep, tang ctfdng lien ket thi tnrdng...
nhd dd, thuc d^y nang cao nang suat va hidu qua cho san xua't ndng nghiep. Nghidn ctfu cua Td Trung Thanh (2012) da ddnh gia DTC tren phrfdng di?n phan tich lidu DTC "Id'n dt" hay "hd trd" DTTN. Kdt qua nghien cihi cho thd'y, hidn ttfdng DTC "l^n dt" DTTN thd hidn rd net nhtfng tac ddng Id khdng ddng ke trong mgt vdi ndm diu va hieu d'ng dat ctfc dai vao nam Arf 5.
Phtfdng phap nghidn ciJu va mo hmh de jaiSt Tinh ddn nay, v l cd ban cac phtfdng phdp phan tich tdc ddng cua DTC de'n TTKT deu ke thtfa va phdt men tf md hinh tdng trrfdng Tan cd didn. tjc la stf dung dang hdm sdn xua't md rgng hay bien the cua no.
Tren cd sd ke' thiifa va vSO dyng cdc nehien crfu trrfdc day, trong ngwen crfu niy sddung md hinh bien the co dang:
BInL+pjnH + P,DIST + w, (1) Trong do, GRDP, IG, IP, L, H, DIST iln Irfdt la san Irfdng do bang tdng san pham trong tinh, vdn diu trf nhd nrfdc, vd'n dau trf trf nhan, lao dpng, vd'n nhdn life vd khoang each trung binh tdi trung tam vdng.
Ve dif lieu tinh todn: Sd lieu cho rfdc Irfdng md hinh la dii* lieu bang dang can dd'i, trong dd edc ddn vi thu thdp la cac tinh, vdi didi gian theo ndm trf 2015- 2018.
Vdi 14 tinh cua viing TDMNPB va quan sdt trong vdng 4 nam, sdquan sat drfa vdo rfdc Irfdng Id 56 quan sat. Cae so lieu v^
cdc bid'n ddu drfdc thu thap tif Nidn gidm Thd'ng ke cua cdc tinh, cd ddi ehieu vdi s6' lieu Nien giam Thd'ng kd cua Tdng cue Thdng ke. Rieng dd'i vdi bie'n Chd't Itfdng nhdn life, do han che ve each tid'p can, ndn nghidn ctfu nay sfrdung ty le lao ddng qua dao tao dd do Irfdng, tinh theo %.
Gidi ban trong bai viet nay, chi tap trung nghien ciJu kdnh tac dpng trrfc tie'p vao tdng san Irfdng (GRDP) cua vung TDMNPB, quan hd gitfa DTC vd DTTN, ma khdng nghidn ctfu cde kenh tde ddng khac.
KET QUA NGHIEN CLfU
Thufc trang tSng trifdng kinh td' va dau tuT cdng
Viing TDMNPB bao gdm 14 tinh, cd thd phdn chia thanh 2 tieu vung Id Tdy Bac (vdi trung tam Id tinh Phu Thp) vd Ddng Bac (vdi trung tdm Id tinh Thai Nguydn). Trong giai doan 2011-2015, T'TKT cua viing dat tha'p trong bdi canh ndn kinh te ca nrfdc dd'i mat vdi nhidu khd khan, do nhffng va'n dd ndi tai cua nen kinh te vd chiu tac ddng khdng nho cua suy thoai kinh td toan clu. Trong giai doan nay. dil tang truing khong cao, nhrfng hau hdt cdc dia phirpng deu cd vung TDMNPB, toe dp TTKT giai doan 2011-2015 van d,t 6.41%, ,,^g;^^'f^^"
binh chung cua ca nrfdc. Giai doan 201 fi 2018, tang trrfdng eua todn Vtingdat w h quan 9,98%/nam. trong do nam 201 s 1, 9.8%. nam 2017 vd ndm 2018 dat. " ^ tfng 10,4% va 9,7%. Ndm 2OI9 t- ^ tdng trtfdng GRDP dat 7.6%, z^^^^
mtfc binh quan eua ca ntfdc <6.?6^, "'^"
Nhd TTKT dtfdc cai thien trong giai doan 2015--2019, cdng tac giam ngheo da dat drfdc thanh ttfu dang ke. Ty Id ngheo cac tinh TDMNPJB gidm nhanh, trf38,72%
(2005) xudng con 31,38% (2010); 25,77%
(2015) vd 15,82% (2018). Ty le ngheo d cdc huydn ngheo giam binh qudn 5,5%/
nam, edc xa ngheo giam binh qudn trf 3%- 4%/ndm (Bd Lao ddng - Thtfdng binh va Xa hdi, 2019). Mdt sd tinh thudc Vilng da dat drfdc brfdc tid'n dang ke trong phat mdn KT-XH (tang hifdng cao, nam sau cao hdn nam trtfdc), nhrf: Thai Nguyen, Lao Cai. Lang Sdn, Hda Blnh, Phii Thg, Sdn La; Thu hut vdn diu trf trong ntfdc va ntfdc ngoai vdo phat tridn cdng nghiep, du Iich cd btfdc phdt trien; Dam bao an sinh xa hgi; Quan tdm cdng tac xda ddi, giam ngheo; Xay diftig ndng thdn mdi. Tuy vay, chuyen dieh ed ca'u kinh te' nganh cdng nghidp, dieh vu edn cham; Mdi trtfdng diu ttf mdt so dia phrfdng chrfa thudn ldi de hd'p din dau trf trong nrfdc va nrfdc ngoai; Quy md kinh td' cdn nhd be; Thu nhdp binh qudn dau ngrfdi thd'p hdn binh quan ca ntfdc.
Vilng TDMNPB ludn dtfdc Dang, Nhd ntfdc quan tam, ddc bidt Id trong DTC.
De thuc da'y phat trien KT-XH vung TDMNPB, ngay 01/7/2004, Bd Chinh tri khda IX da ban hanh Nghj quye't sd 37-NQ/TW ve phtfdng hrfdng phdt trien KT-XH vd bao dam qud'c phdng, an ninh VLing Trung du vd midn nui Bac Bd dd'n nam 2020 vd ngay 02/8/2012 ban hanh Ket luan sd 26-KL/TW ve tiep tuc thrfc hien Nghi quye't so' 37-NQ/TW nham day manh phdt trien KT-XH vd dam bdo qud'c phdng, an ninh viJng Trung du va mien nui Bae Bg den nam 2020. Thdi gian qua, Chlnh phu va cdc bd, ngdnh da ddnh mpt khdi Itfdng vd'n ldn tdp trung dau trf vao phdt tridn KT-XH Viing thdng qua cac quy hoach, ke' hoach va edc chrfdng trinh mue tieu qud'c gia, cac drf dn qud'e gia... tao ngudn Irfc de phat tridn KT-XH cdc dia phrfdng ndi rieng vd todn Viing ndi chung.
Bang Ichothay, trong giai doan 2015- 2019, quy mo tdng vdn dau trf xd hdi toan Viing ludn tdng vdi nhip dp trung binh khoang 5%/nam, cd bidt nam 2017, quy md vd'n tdng 13,5% so vdi nam 2016. Ty Id vd'n diu trf xd hgi tren GRDP cua todn vung TDMNPB ludn eao, ed ndm tdi 48,5% (ndm 2017). Trong khi dd, ngudn vdn nhd ntfde ludn giif on djnh ve quy md, nhtfng giam nhe ve ty le trong tdng
BANG 1: TONG VON DAG TC/ vA DTC CGA CA NCTdC vA VCING TDMNPB Nam
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Ca nildc T^ngso (Tydone) 1.366.478 1.487.638 1.670.196 1.856.606 2.088.682
Von DTC (Ty dong) 519.878 557 633 596.096 619.106 689.265
T}16 (%1 38,05 37,48 35,69 33,35 33,11
Vune TDMNPB T^ng so 166.990,573 148.189,526 168 256,04
175.450,812 183.346,098
ygn DTC (TJdSnR) 44.846,736 39.995,19 43.326,174 46.632,538 44.583.228
26,86 26,99 25,75 26,58 24,32
•-gijan Toni] c u r Thong k "• gjdm Thong ke i_
vd'n tiau ttf xa hdi, chie'm 24,32%> nam 2019. So sdnh ty le vd'n nha nrfdc cua vung TDMNPB vdi ca nrfdc cho thd'y, ty Id DTC d viing TDMNPB tha'p hdn trung binh ca ntfdc khoang 10%/nam. Trong giai doan 2015-2019, ty trpng vd'n nha nrfdc cua vung TDMNPB trdn tdng vd'n nha nrfdc cua ca nen kinh td'da cd xu htfdng giam trf 8,6% (nam 2015) xud'ng 6,5% (ndm 2019).
Trong 5 nam qua, vd'n DTC da drfdc diu ttf eho cde chrfdng trinh muc tieu qud'c gia, xay diAig ket ca'u ha tang KT-XH, ddc biet danh ty Id thich dang cho dau trf kd't ca'u ha ting giao thdng va dat drfdc ke't qua ddng khich Id. De'n nay, tren dia bdn khu vrfc da hoan thanh tuye'n drfdng: cao td'c Ndi Bai - Lao Cai; cao td'c Hd Ndi - Thdi Nguyen; Thai Nguydn - Chd Mdi; Hda Lac - Hda Binh, cao td'c Ha Ngi - Bac Giang. Hidn nay, tuyd'n cao td'c Bae Giang - Lang Sdn da hodn thanh va dang ehuan bj tridn khai tuyd'n cao td'c TP. Lang Sdn - etfa kha'u Hi?u Nghi (drf kid'n hodn thanh nam 2021). Ve he thd'ng qud'c lg, trong Viing cd 6.971km qud'c Id cd ban da dtfdc nang ca'p, hd trd hen ke't Ha Ndi vdi cde tinh, thdnh trong viing TDMNPB, giam chenh lech girfa cae dia phtfdng, hinh thanh eae hdnh lang phdt trien kinh td'cua TDMNPB.
Trong ndng nghiep, vd'n DTC da danh cho xdy drfng ke't ca'u ha tang ndng nghiep vdi tong kinh phi la 18.235 ty ddng giai doan 2004-2019, gdp phan nang cap va hoan thidn kd't cd'u ha tang ndng nghidp cho vung TDMNPB, dd giup cap ntfdc dn dinh va dam bao cho san xud't ndng nghiep cua ngrfdi dan. Giai doan 2004-2018, toe dp tang gia tri san xua't nganh ndng nghidp ciia viing TDMNPB dat binh quan 4,87%/nam, so vdi 4,6%/nam cua ca nrfde.
Viing TDMNPB da cd srf phat trien rat an trfdng ldm thay ddi bd mat ndng thdn, tao ra btfc tranh rd net trong chuyen ddi ed ca'u kinh te'ndng nghiep.
Sau 9 nam trien khai Chtfdng tnnh mue tidu qudc gia xdy drfng ndng thdn mdi, cac dia phrfdng viing TDMNPB vin gap nhieu khd khan, thach thrfc hdn cdc viang khae. Dd'n het thang 6/2019, da cd 603/2.280 xa (26,45%) drfdc cdng nhan dat ehuan ndng thdn mdi (tang 18,34% so vdi cud'i nam 2015, mtfc dd tang thap hdn so vdi binh quan ca nrfdc Id 32,79%), tha'p hdn so vdi mtfc dat chuan ciia ca nrfdc (50,26%).
Vd hieu qua DTC, so'lieu d Bang 2 eho tha'y, hd so ICOR dd'i vdi vd'n dau trf nha nrfdc tai viing TDMNPB cd bid'n dpng qua cae nam vd da giam ttf 6,5 (nam 2015) xud'ng 5,7 (nam 2018). So vdi ICOR vd'n nhd nrfdc ciaa ca nen kinh td, DTC d vung TDMNPB cd phan hidu qua
Economy and Forecast Review
BANG 2: H j SO ICOR VA CO CAU VON DAU TU THEO T H A N H PHAN KINH TE V O N G TDMNPB
'Tbinh n M n kinh u r ICUK chune Clia vune
Nha nudc Tif nhan FDI
ICOR nha nudc ctia nen kinh te ICOR tunhan ciia nin kmh te
Crf ca'u vo'n dSu tri theo thanh n Tone so
Nha nifdc Tif nhan FDl
.Mmwa
5.1 6.5 1.8 8,0 4,5 I n kmh tl^ tai
100 26,86 39,52 33.62
5.3
8.3 5.3 Vune(%1 100
'6,99 51,83 21,18
4,7 6,7 7,3 1.5 9,9 4,6 100
25,75 51,30 22,95
4,8 5,7 2,2 11.2 3.6 100
26.58 55.00 18 42 rSguon. Tong cijc Thong ke, (Nie
L ^ BANG 3: KET QUA CfflC LCTONG THEO REM VA FEM
1 ^ B i ^ n s e r ' * - ^ ;
Bi^n phu thutic- 1 H^'s^ chan
InR}
lnfl>
&lL roH fcolST
^.-squared VIP N
^ o b > F
• ^ i n - Wat.son Plasusman test
V ' PbiAAD^phdp Random effects (REM) r i K T - InGRDP
-0,155064: (1,011235) 0,298817***. (0,077494) 0,312724***; (0,050417) 0.609433***; (0,150668) 0,444961***; (0,144573) -0.009Ct02: (0.030393) 0.8713
< 6 76 0,000 1,2695
tfdc itf^fDe - fixed c ^ i ^ C ^ M )
-10.1117*; (5,578) 0,29935**; (0,11348) 0.238***; (0,0651) 2.3593**, (0,9509) 0.3109,(0,2279) 0.0146; (0.0482)
0.9952
<6 76 0.000 1,8549 Prob > chi= = 0,5288 > 0,05
\ Ghi chu: Trong ddu {) Id sai sd chudn;
\o%
5 ling miic Jl nghTa 1 %. 5%
Nguon. Ket qua nghien cCfu ciJa tac gia hdn. Tuy nhien, hidu qua dau trf cua khu vifc trf nhan tai viing TDMNPB lai thd'p hdn nhieu so vdi ca nrfdc vd tha'p hdn hidu qua DTC tai Vung. Day la hidn Mdng trai vdi xu the chung - ctn drfdc nghidn crfu, phan tich mdt cdch chi tidt mdi cd the drfa ra ket luan mot each day diJ.
PhSn tich tac ddng cua DTC dd'n TTKT cua Vung SiJ* dung ph^n mem Eviews, trdn cd sd du" lieu Bdng.
thrfc hidn rfdc Irfdng md Mnh theo dang {1), trrfdc he't cho thd^y phrfdng phap Pooled OLS la khdng phii hdp (cdc dia phrfdng cd he sdchan khdc nhau). Tid'p tuc tien hanh hdi quy theo phrfdng phdp hidu rfng cd dinh (FEM) va phrfdng phdp hidu ihig ngdu nhien (REM). Kd't qua rfdc Irfdng 2 md hinh FEM vd REM drfdc trinh bay d Bang 3.
Tuf kd't qua Bang 3 cd the nhan xel:
(i) Dd'i vdi md hinh FEM, he sd cua cac bien InlG, InIP vd InL cd y nghta thdng kd. cdn cdc he sdcua !nH vd InDIST khdng cd y nghia thdng ke, mac dii ky vong vd dd'u la phd hdp. , -- , . (ii) Md hinh REM, cdc he so cd y nghia thong ke tdt hdn, duy chi cd bid'n InDIST la khdng cd y nghia thdng ke. , ^, ^ , . .
Tdng hdp 2 trrfdng hdp cd the thay, thdi gian qua lien kd't kinh te tai Vung cdn rat yeu.
Cac ket qua kiem dinh khdc cua hai md hinh cho tha'y, ca hai md hinh ddu thda man, nhrf: Phan trdm giai thich cua cdc bien ddc lap kha cao (R-squared > 0,87):
Khong cd hidn trfdng da cdng tuyd'n (VIP
< 6); Cdc thdnh phan drf khdng trf trfdng quan (bidu hidn d he sd Durbin - Watson nam trong khoang 1 dd'n 3).
Dd Irfa chpn md hinh phan tich, c^n su: dung kiem dinh Hausman test, kd't qua kiem dinh cho tha'y: Prob. = 0,2457
> 0,05, vi vay rfdc Irfdng REM la lot hdn rfdc Irfdng FEM, do dd Irfa chpn md hinh REM cho phan tich la phia hdp.
Md hmh dd rfdc Irfdng diTpc vidl lai day du nhrf sau:
InGRDP = -0.15506 + 0,29881 InIG + 0.33127 InIP + 0,60943 InL + 0,44496 InH (2)
TCf md hinh (2) cd the nhan xet:
- He sd hdi quy cua bid'n dau trf trf nhdn bdng 0,33127, cho biel ne'u tdng DTTN len 1% se tac dpng ldm tang 0,33127% san Irfdng cua vung TDMNPB khi cdc bien khac khdng thay ddi.
- Anh hrfdng cua lao ddng den tang trrfdng cd mrfc cao nha't trong md hinh, khi tang lao ddng ldn 1% se lam lang san Irfdng ldn 0,6()943% san Irfdng.
- Khi tang 1% chat Irfdng ngudn nhan Irfc (ty Id qua dao lao) se cd tac dpng tdng sdn Irfdng ldn 0,44496%, vdi cdc bien khac khdng thay ddi.
Tdc dpng cua DTC dd'n TTKT d Vung la khd tich crfc. He so' hdi quy bang 0,29881 ndi ldn khi tdng vdn DTC ldn 1% se lam tang san Irfdng len khoang 0,29881%, vdi dieu kien cdc bie'n sd khdc khdng ddi. Mrfc tdc ddng ndy cao hdn mrfc trung binh cua vting ldn (bao gdm: Dong bdng sdng Hdng va TDMNPB) da drfdc chi ra trong nghidn crfu cua Nguydn Doan Trang (2018). Trong nghidn crfu dd'i vdi nen kinh td' Viet Nam, lac gia Trang da su:
dung drf lieu Qu^ cua giai doan 2000- 2016, chia ca nrfdc thdnh 3 vung, Irong do VLing 1 bao gom Ddng hdng sdng Hdng vd TDMNPB (lam gpi la "viing ldn") va da chi ra idc ddng cua 1 % tdng DTC len TTKT cua "vung ldn" la 0.2%.
tdc dpng cua tang 1% DTTN Id 0,57%
va tdc dOng cua tdng 1% lao dpng la 0,28%. Nhrf \a>. tai \ung TDMNPB, tdc ddng cua DTC vd Lao dpng Id ldn hdn d "vung ldn" (trong nghien crfu cua Nguyen Doan Trang). nhrfng anh hrfdng cua DTTN lai nho hdn.
K£'T LUAN VA HAM Y CHINH SACH TiJf ket qud nghidn ciJu, tac gia drfa ra mpt sd'nhaln xet sau day:
Thff nhd't, DTC tai vilng TDMNPB da trrfc tiep tao ra vide lam va thu nhap cd hidu qud cao hdn khi so sanh vdi viing Ddng bang sdng Hong. Trong thdi gian qua, cd cd'u DTC 6 viing TDMNPB chu ydu nghidng ve dau trf kd't cau ha tang KT-XH, nhd't Id ha tang giao thong, ndng nghiep nong thdn va Chrfdng tnnh muc tieu qudc gia ve giam ngheo va an sinh xa hpi. Mpt trong nhrfng muc tidu cua cdc chrfdng trinh nay Id tao vide Idm su"
dung lao dpng tai chd vd vi vay, cd tac dpng nang cao hieu sua'l ddng gdp ciia DTC vao TTKT cua vilng TDMNPB.
Hdn nffa, cac drf dn DTC thdi gian qua, bao gdm cac drf dn ket cd'u ha tang giao thdng cd quy md ldn, drfdc srf chi dao cua Chinh phu va cdc bd, ngdnh, nen da riit ngan thdi gian thi cdng - mang lai hieu qua cao hdn.
Thff hai, chdnh Idch ve hieu qua gii?a DTTN va DTC ddi vdi tdng trrfdng d viing TDMNPB tha'p hdn so vdi vilng Ddng bang sdng Hdng ndi ldn srf tac ddng Ian tda cua DTC dd'i vdi DTTN cua viing TDMNPB cdn han che'. Hien nay, mac dii ket ca'u ha tang cd vai trd to ldn trong lidn kd't kinh td' girfa cdc dia phrfdng cua viing TDMNPB vdi nhau va vdi ca nrfdc da drfcfc cai thien ddng kd, nhrfng nhifng tie'n bd ve kd't cd'u ha tang drfdng nhrf chrfa du va chrfa kip tao nen srf thay ddi ddng ke trong lien ke't kinh te' ndi vung, cung nhrf Ihu hut DTTN trong nrfdc va nrfdc ngodi thdi gian qua.
Thff ba. nhip dp nang cao trinh dp lao dpng ciia Vilng trong thdi gian qua la khd cao nhd DTC tif cac chrfdng tnnh muc tieu qud'c gia, nhrf: Chrfdng trinh Gidm ngheo ben viihg, hd trd xay drfng ke't cd'u ha tang, phai irien Ihi trrfdng lao ddng va tao vide lam cdng, nang cao nang life cpng ddng, dao tao nghe... Didu nay cting drfdc the hidn rd d hd sdhdi quy cua bidn chd't Irfdng nhdn life trong md hinh rfdc Irfdng la khd ldn (0,44496).
Thff tff. tdc dpng cua DTTN vdo san Irfdng chi ldn hdn tdc dpng cua DTC la 0,032455%, irong khi ty trpng cua DTTN cde ndm d miJc gd'p ddi ty trpng DTC, chffng to DTTN tai viing TDMNPB hien dat hieu qud edn Ihap. Dieu nay ciing drfdc minh chffng Ihdm khi so sdnh he sd' ICOR eiia cdc khu vrfc (Bang 2), trong dd
eho thay, hd so' ICOR cua khu vrfc trf nhan Id eao nhd't qua cdc ndm. Thrfc le' nay dat ra nghi van, lieu DTC tai Viang cd la'n dt DTTN hay khdng? Du chrfa ed dieu kidn kiem dinh gia thuye't do, nhu^g thie't nghT, trong hoan thien cdc chinh sdch ve DTC sdp tdi, can ddc bidt Irfu y de'n vai trd cua DTC trong vide kich thieh DTTN phdt trien.
Trdn cd sd kei qua nghidn crfu, tae gia drfa ra mdt so' khuyen nghi sau day:
Mgt Id. tdng cudng DTC cho viing TDMNPB. Nhrf so' Hdu chi ra trong Bang 1, ty Id vdn diu trf nha nrfdc trong tdng dau trfxa hpi tha'p hdn khoang 10%/nam so vdi ly le nay cua ca nrfdc. Vdi mrfc tdc dpng trrfc tid'p eua DTC vao TTKT eao hdn d cac viing khde (nhrf da chi ra trong mo hinh rfdc Irfpng), viec lang quy md DTC cho vung TDMNPB trong giai doan tdi Id can thid't, de drfa tang trrfdng cua Vung cao hdn mffc trung binh cua ca nrfdc, sdm giup Vimg gidm bdt khoang cdch ve irinh dd phat trien so vdi ea nrfdc. Cae chinh sdch vd DTC do'i vdi Viang can cu the, mang tinh dac thil, dac biet la ve ha tang giao Ihdng, kd't ca'u ha tang ndng nghidp, gidm ngheo, an sinh xa hdi vd phdt tridn ngudn nhan Irfc.
Hai Id, ddy mgnh ca cdu lai DTC co linh din ddc thd cua Viing. Can cd chinh sdch dde Ihii ddi vdi vdng TDMNPB. Theo dd, vdi cd ca'u ngudn vd'n. can cd chinh sdch rfu tidn vd'n ngdn sach nha nrfdc, ldng crfdng nguon vo'n ODA va vd'n vay rfu dai nrfdc ngoai.
do ngudn ngdn sdch dia phrfdng eua ph^n ldn edc tinh trong Vilng la han che'. Ve Hnh vrfc dau Irf, can rfu lien hd trd dau trf thrfc hidn drf dn xdy drfng cdc edng tnnh ha lang giao thong chieu ngang, nham dam bao tinh ddng bp, ben vu^g vd tranh thu ldi thd'cdc cdng trinh giao thdng ldn da drfdc Chinh phu dau trf trong thdi gian qua; ke't ca'u ha tang ndng nghidp, nong ihdn;
hodn Ihidn thd chd'kinh td'thi tnfdng hidn dai, phii hdp vdi thdng le qud'c te, dap ffng yeu cau ke't noi vdi viang Dong bang sdng Hdng vd cdc vilng khac, tang crfdng hpi rihap kinh td'qude Id'.
Ba Id. ndng cao hiiu qud KT-XH cua DTC. Tdi cd cd'u DTC phai ihrfc srf vi muc tidu nang cao hieu qua KT-XH. Mud'n vdy, trrfdc hd't, can hodn thidn cd che' phan bd vdn DTC de tap trung dau trf cho cae vung cd hidu qud cao, phai trien ke't ca'u ha tang trpng didm va cac nganh ed vai trd nang cao trinh dp cdng nghd cua nen kinh id' viing. Tap trung chi dao day nhanh tid'n dp tridn khai cac drf dn DTC; quan ly, kiem sodt chdt che vide dieu chinh cdc dif dn dau trf xay drfng cua Nha nrfdc; tang crfdng cdng tdc Iheo doi, danh gia, kiem tra, Ihanh tra, kiem todn, gidm sdt vide chap hanh ky lual, ky crfdng trong qudn ly ngan sach nha nrfde. Dd'i vdi cdc dia phrfdng cua vilng TDMNPB. can tiep tuc nang eao cha'l Irfdng edng tac tham mrfu, dieu hdnh thrfe hidn ke hoach phdt trien KT-XH va DTC; rd sodl, dieu chinh cac quy hoach phu hdp vdi tinh hinh thrfe Id', phti hdp vdi quy hoach tdng the qudc gia. quy hoach kdt cd'u ha lang giao thong qud'c gia, quy hoach vilng TDMNPB.
nhdm dam bao tinh ddng bp, ben vi?ng vd tranh Ihu ldi
Efonomy and Forecast Revie
the cac cong irinh giao thong ldn da drfdc Chinh phu phat huy vai trd cua lao ddng. trrfdc hd't
^^^txi. i/u lien sff dung lao dpng Irong Vung
^Bdn Id, khuyen khich DTTN. Can qudn triet quan dd'i vdi vide thifc hien cde drf dn DTC.
diem coi DTC la vdn mdi de huy dpng nhieu lidn vd'n Dd'i vdi viing TDMNPB. lao dpng chu DTTN vao nen kinh id'. Sff dung DTC de giai quyei cde yeu la ngrfdi dan tdc thieu sd cd chd't va'n de, gd bo cac rao can va tao thuan ldi cho khu vrfc Irfdng lao ddng edn tha'p. do dd can Iff nhan bd vdn dau trf vdo nen kinh te. (iu the: Hrfdng danh mdt ty le ngan sdch nha nrfdc DTC vao dau trf ke't cd'u ha lang giao Ihdng, ha tang Ihich dang de day manh hdn nffa cdng thrfdng mai, ha tang xa hpi va ha lang cac khu cdng ldc dao lao nghe; ddng thdi, cung can nghidp; Cdi thidn mdi trrfdng kinh doanh cffa Viing; cd md hinh ddo tao nghe phii hdp vdi Tdp trung cdt giam chi phi khdng chinh thffc, xda bd dac ihu ve kinh le - van hda cua Vung.
tinh trang phdn biet ddi xff vdi cac doanh nghiep trf Vide dau trf phdt trien cdc cd sddao tao nhan; Tiep tuc cai each thu tiJc hanh chinh, phdt tridn nghe cin cd chpn lpc, trpng diem g^n dich vu cdng, ndng cao chd't Irfdng dich vu ho trd doanh vdi nganh nghe dao tao theo quy hoach nghidp vd Ihiet chd phdp ly; Hoan thien ehinh sdch hd phdt trien KT-XH ciia dia phrfdng trong trd khdi nghiep cho cdc doanh nghiep. Vilng. Can nghien crfu, dp dung chinh Ndm la. phdt huy vai trd cua lao dgng. ndng cao sdch khuye'n khich hoc nghe dd'i vdi chdt lugng nguon nhdn luc. Qua md hinh nghien cffu ngudi ddn tde thieu sdb^ng vide hd trd eho Iha'y, lao ddng cd tdc ddng ldn de'n tang TTKT chi phi hpc nghe, ne'u hp ed viec lam, cua Vung. Vi vay, trong thdi gian idi, cin tid'p tuc sau khi drfdc ddo tao.G
_ TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
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2. Bp Lao dpng - Thrfdng binh va Xa hpi (2019). Bdo cdo phuang hudng phdt trien KT-XH vd ddm bdo qudc phdng - an ninh viing Trung du vd mien nui Bdc Bg. Hpi nghi Tong kd't 15 ndm thrfc hidn Nghi quyd't sd 37-NQ/TW, ngay 01/7/2004 cua Bp Chinh tri. Ha Npi, ngdy 25/9/2019
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