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MOI quan he giOfa dong tien va nguon von tai t r d ben ngoai cua cac cong t y niem yet va phi niem yet
Phan Gia Quyen' • Bui Van Huy" • Ha Thj My Duyen"
Ngay nhan bai. 08/01/2016 I Bien tap xong- 02/0V2017 I Duyet dang: 10/01/2017
TOM TAT: Bai nghien cu'u xem xet su" khac biet giCa cac cong ty niem yet (CTNY) (khong rang buoc tai chmh) va cac cong ty phi niem yet (CTPNY) (rang bupc tai chmh) trong moi quan he giO'a dong tien va nguon von tai trtf ben ngoai (TTBN) trong giai doan 2008-2014. Su" dyng phu'cfng phap u'dc lu'dng FGLS, nhom tac gia tim thay bang chufng rang cac CTNY co xu hu'dng giam cac nguon von TTBN khi dong tien cua cong ty gia tang. Ngoai ra, moi quan he giO'a dong tien va nguon von TTBN manh hdn doi vdi cac CTNY cd quy mo ldn. Hdn nu'a, cac cong ty cd quy mo Idn va nhieu cd hpi tang tru'dng co xu hu'dng gia tang cac ngudn von TTBN cuaminh, dieu nay dung doi vdi ca CTNY va CTPNY. Bang chuTng nay chira rSngly thuyet trat t\J phan hang phu hdp doi vdl cac cong ty khong rang bupc tai chfnh.
Ti/KHOAtcongty niem yet, cong t y p h i niem yet, rang bupc tai chi'nh, dong tien, quyet dinh tai trd.
1. Gidi t h i e u
Cac nghien cuu vc cau triic von da Iam noi bat LK dpng ciia rang bugc tai chinh doi viii hoat dong tim kiem cac nguon von tai trd (Faulkender va Petersen, 2006; Fazzari va ctg, 1988; Hubbard, 1998). Trong do, cac cong ly diioc xem la rang buoc tai chlnh khi sif chenh lech giQa chi phi von ben trong va chi phi von ben ngoai ldn (Kaplan va Zingales, 1997; Le Ha Diem Chi, 2015). Theo each hieu nay, cac cong ty hi rang buoc tai chinh la cac cong ty khong CO hoac co a kha nang liep can nguon von TTBT mot each thuan icfi. Dac biet, mot so nghien ciJfu da nhan manh ring cac cong ty bl rang buoc !JI chinh tiep can nguon von tai tro nho VOl chi phi cao hon so vdi cac cong ly
khong hi rang bupc tai chinh (Carpenter va Petersen, 2002). Cac nghien ciiu thUc nghiem gan day da tim thay b i n g chiing rang CTPNY,
>i Phan Gia Quyen - Ngan hang Thi/tJng mai co ph3n S^i Gon Thi/dng Tin; 266 268 Nam Ky Khcfi Nghia, Phi/dng B, Quan 3, Tp. Ho Chf Minh; Email: [email protected],
.- Bui Van Huy - Cong ty co phan ChiTng Khoan TP.HCM, 76 Le Lai, PhiTdng Ben Thanh, Quan 1, Tp. H6 Chi Minh, Email: huy [email protected].
Ha Thi My Duyen - Cong ly Tu'van Dich vy Tai chinh Diamond Star; 51D Qinh Bp Llnh, Quan Binh Thanh, Tp.
Ho Chl Minh; Email: [email protected].
^ c- CONG NGHE NGAN HANG ing01S02.2017 So 1308.131
PHAN GIA QUYEN • BUI VAN HUY • HA fHI MY DUYEN
dai dien cho cac cong ty bi rang bupc tai chinh phai doi mat vdi van de bat can xiing thong tin va ii linh hoat tai chinh hcfn so vdl cac C T W tren san chung khoan (Brav, 2009). Trong khi cac CTPNY phai doi mat v<ti ca chi phi phat hanh va chi phi "lUa chpn doi nghich" cao, thi cac CTXY chi phai tra chi phi phat hanh. Do do, chi phi dai dien ciia cac CTPX^' cung cao hon so voi cac CTXY (Smith, 2007).
Doi vdi moi cong ly thi yeu to tai chinh va cac hoat dong lien quan den tai chinh la mpt van de quan trpng dac biet. Viec sii dung hinh thiic huy dpng von nao de tai trp dau tU la mpt trong nhiing hoat dong tai chinh quan trgng ciia moi cong ty. Co hai hinh thiic huy dong von chinh la ben trong va ben ngoai.
Cac nghien cifu tnidc day thudng tap trung van kha nang huy dpng von tai trp ben ngoai (ngudn von I T B X ) va ddng tien ciia cdng ty diia tren yeu td rang budc tai chinh dUpc the hien thdng qua cac tieu chi nhil quv md cong t)' (Gertler va Gilchrist, 1995; Oliner va Rudebursh, 1995, 1996; Huang, 2003;
Atanasova va Wilson, 2004; Zulkhibri, 2015) hay miic dd phu thudc ngan hang (Huang, 2003; Zulkhibri, 2015) nhUng cd it nghien ciiu xem xet yeu td rang bupc tai chinh dUa tren dac tinh dai chiing cua cdng tv. Do dd, nhdm tac ijia thUc hien nghien cifu nay nham phan tich MI khac biet trong mdi quan he giiia ngudn \nn I'TI^X va ddng tien ciia cdc cdng ty khdni; rang budc tai chinh va cac cdng ty rang budc tai chinh, trong dd yeu td rang budc tai chinh dUpc xac dinh dUa tren dac tinh mem yet ciia cdng ty (CTl'XY dUac xem la bi rang budc tai chinh va C. IXY la khdng bi rang budc) theo de nghi ciia Brav (2009), Ldpez-GraciavaSogorb-Mira (2014, 2015).
Hpn niia, cac rang budc tai chinh dUPc xem xet trong dieu kien phat trien nen kinh te md (Gertler va Gilchrist, 1995). Vi vay, trong giai doan khimg hoang tien te ndi rieng hay suy thoai kinh te noi chung, sii khac biet trong mdi quan he giCla ngudn vdn TTBX va ddng tien cua cac cdng IV bl rang budc va khdng bi rang budc tai chinh rat Idn. Nghia la, cac cdng ty bi rang budc
tai chinh ngay cang khd khan hdn de huy ddng dilpc von mdi va neu lam diipc ^^ec dd thi chi phi huy ddng ngudn von TTBX cung cao hpn.
Trong khi dd, cupc khung hoang tien te hay kinh te cd the se khdng tac ddng den cac cdng t>' khdng bl rang budc tai chinh khi cac cdng t\- n j \ quyet dinh huy dpng nguon vdn TTBX.
Nghien ciiu nay xem xet mdi quan he gifla ngudn vdn TTBN va ddng tien theo ly thuyet cau tnic vdn bang each so sanh sU khac biet gifla cac CTPXY (rang budc tai chinh) va cac CTXY (khdng bi rang budc tai chinh). Cac ket qua cua bai nghien cflu cho thay rang ngudn vdn ben trong (ndi sinh) thfldng dflpc cac CTPXY sfl dung vi cac cdng ty nay phu thudc manh vao ngudn quy ndi bd. Do dd, cac CTPNY dau tfl ddng tien cua minh vao cac dfl an cd lpi nhuan, sfl dung bat ky ddng tien thang dfl de tang tai san an toan. Ngfloc lai, cac CTNY thfldng khai thac ngudn vdn TTBN de sfl dung ddn bay tai chinh, tuy nhien, khi ngudn vdn nay cao hon ddng tien thi cd the lam giam tac dung cua ddn bay. \ i vay, cac CTN'i' se phan flng tieu cflc hpn so vdi cac CTPXY khi cd cac bien ddng trong ddng tien. Xgoai ra, nghien cflu cdn cho thay, cd mdt moi quan he nghich bien gifla ngudn vdn TTBX va ddng tien d ca hai nhdm cdng ty nhflng cac CTNY thfldng bi tac ddng manh hon.
2. Ctf sd ly thuyet va gia thuyet nghien curu
Theo Iy thuyet cau trflc vdn, quyet dinh tai trp cua cac cdng t\' cd lien quan vdi nguon vdn dflpc tai trp tfl ben ngoai va ben trong. Trong dd, tai trp ben ngoai dflpc cac cdng t)- huy ddng dfldi hai hinh thflc la tai tro bdi no \-a\- \ a vdn chu sd hflu ben ngoai va vdn dflpc tai trp tfl ben trong xuat phat tfl lpi nhuan gifl lai hoac ddng tien d i a cdng x\- Cac cdng ty cd Ipi nhuan thadng xuyen thi ddng tien thfldng gia tang mdt each dang ke. Theo ly thuyet danh ddi, loai hinh cdng tv nay tang ngudn vdn vay ben ngoai de tan dung lpi the cua cac tam chdn thue. Tuy nhien, Iv thuyet trat tfl phan hang ki vpng mdi quan he ngflpe chieu gifla ddn bay va ddng tien do sfl tdn tai cua chi phi thdng tm bat can xflng.
" = - ; 018,02.2017 TAPCHi CONG N G H E NGAN HANG 3 9
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Do do, cac cong Iv su dung quy huy ddng tu ben trong idau tien) hdn la np (thfl hai) va von chii sd hflu ben ngoai (thfl ba) (Murray va \'idhan, 2007; Shvam-Sunder \ a Myers. 19991. Dieu dd ham y rang cac doanh nghiep sfl dung tai trg ndi bd khi cd sin va flu tien chpn nd hdn von cd phan khi can den tai trp tfl ben ngoai. Dieu nay giai thich tai sao cac doanh nghiep sinh Idi it hon trong mdt nganh lai vav nd nhieu hdn, khdng phai do ho cd ty- le np muc tieu cao hon, ma la vi hp can nhieu tai trP tu ben ngoai hPn va quan trong hon la do nd ta sfl lua chon tiep theo trong trat tfl phan hang khi vdn ndi bd da can kiet. Trat tfl phan hang la hau qua cua thdng tin bat can xflng Cac giam ddc biet ve doanh nghiep cua minh nhieu hon cac nha dau tfl ben ngoai va ho mien cfldng phat hanh c6 phan khi cho rang gia qua thap. Cac nha dau tu hieu rang quyet dmh phat hanh co phan thfldng la tin xau va gia CO phan thfldng se giam khi tin tflc ve viec phat hanh cd phan dfldc cdng bd. Do dd, trong trfldng hop nay, cac doanh nghiep cd xu hudng Ifla chpn vay nP hdn la phat hanh vdn cii phiin mdi. Cd nghia la cd phan thfldng se chi dupc phat hanh khi kha nang vay np da can kiet va doanh nghiep cd the dang phai ddi mat vdi
\'an dti kiet quO tai chinh.
Ben canh dd, mdt Iy do khac de giai thich moi quan he gifla ngudn vdn 1 IHX va ddng liOn Id yeu tn rang budc tai chinh. Almeida va C'ampello (2010) da phat tnen phfldng phap tiep can mdi. phan biet giua cdng tv bi rang budc tai chinh la cac criPXY va cdng ty khong bi rang budc tiii chinh la c.\c Cl X"!' Ddng thdi. cac CTPXY bi anh hudng nang ne bdi thdng tin bat can xflng va chi phi "tfla chpn doi nghich", cdn cw CTXY thi khdng. Do dd, cac Cl PN'i phu thudc rat nhieu vao cac nguon vdn dfldc huy ddng tfl ben trong va dau tfl cua hp. Chung dflpc xem la ngudn von hm- dpng ndi smh. NgiuK lai, cac CI XY khdng bi rang budc tai chinh co the huy dnrig cac ngudn von TTBX khac cho hoat dong dau tU cfla minh.
Chung dflPc \fm la ngudn vim huy ddng ngoai smh v\ khdng phu thudc nhieu vao ddng tien ma cac cdng ty lao ra. Ket qua la cac CTPX'i' cd xu hfldng sfl dung ddng tien cua ho de cap
vdn cho cac dfl an cd ldi nhuan trfldc rdi sau do den tai san cd dinh hoac vdn Iflu ddng va tien mat. Tdm lai, cac CTPNY dau tfl ddng tien con lai ^•ao cac tai san an toan ma cd the duoc sii dung trong tfldng Iai nhfl sfl dam bao cho cac khoan \a\' mdi sau khi da dau lfl vko cac dfl an cd lpi nhuan Do dd, moi quan he gifla nguon vdn TTBX va ddng tien dflpc kv vong la nghich bien, mac du khdng manh (nghia la, hieu flng thav the cd cudng dp thap) ddi vdi cac CTPNY Cac CTX"^' cung xem \iec sfl dung dong tien ndi bd la .sU lUa chon dau tien vi tiet kiem chi phi phat hanh chflng khoan. Tuy nhien, dong tien thang dfl se dfldc sfl dung de thanh toan no chfla tra vi cac CTNY khdng phai ddi mat vdi nhflng khd khan ldn trong viec huy dpng quy mdi khi can. Do dd, cac CTX'i' dflpc ky vpng cd mdi quan he nghich bien manh hdn gifla ngudn vdn TTBN \'a ddng tien (nghia la, hieu flng thay the cd cfldng dd cao).
Gan day, trong nghien cflu ve moi quan he gifla ngudn von TTBN va ddng tien theo ly thuyet cau true von, l.dpez-Gracia vi Sogorb-Mira (2014) cung cap b4ng chflng thflc nghiem ve dp nhay cua ngudn vdn TTBN vdi ddng tien cua cac CTXY (khdng bi rang bupc tai chinh) va CTPNY (hi rang budc tai chinh).
Khdng gidng cac bai nghien cflu dfldc thflc hien trfldc day, nghien cflu cua hp phan bi?t cac cdng ty bi rang budc va khdng rang bupc tai chinh theo cac lieu chi cd sd thi trfldng thay cho cac lieu chi dac tinh cdng ty. Cac tdc gia nay lim thay mdi quan he nghich bien giiJIa ngudn \ 6 n TTBN va ddng tien, tac ddng niy manh hdn ddi vdi cac CTXY Ket qua nay dung vdi tat ca cac each do Ifldng ngudn von TTBN dUPe sfl dung trong bai nghien cflu ciia nhom tae gia. Nhdm tac gia cung da kiem dinh vai trd cua tai san hflu hinh ddi vdi moi quan h^
gifla ddng tien va ngudn von TTBN cua doanh nghiep. Hon nUa, giai doan khflng hoang tii chinh toan cau 2008-2010 cung dflpe eac tac gia xem xet de thay dfloc sfl anh hfldng dang k^
cua yeu td kinh le vT md den mdi quan he nay.
Dfla tren cac ed sdly thuyet va thuc nghiem trfldc, gia thuyet dflpc xem xel trong nghien cflu nay nhu sau:
• CONG NGHt NGAN HANG
PHAN CIA QUYf N • BIJI m HUY - HA THI MY DUYEK
H^: .\\;u(Wi vdn TTBX (nd vd von chu sd hvlu) CO mdt quan he nghich bien vdi nguon quy ngi bo (dong tien).
H, Mdi quan he giUa nguon von TTBN vd ddng tien cua cdc CTXY (khdng rdng bupc tdi chinh) td manh hdn so vdi mdi quan hi giUa nguon von TTBX vd ddng tien cua cdc CTPNY (cd rdng buoc tdi chinh).
3 . PhiTtfng p h a p n g h i e n cu'u 3.1. Md hinh nghien cflu
Moi quan he gifla ngudn vdn TTBX va ddng tien dflpc phan tieh dfla tren cac md hinh nghien cflu cua Almeida va Campello (2010), Ldpez-GraciavaSogorbMira (2014).
Theo dd, ngudn vdn TTBX la ham sd phu thude vao ddng lien, quy md cdng ly va ep hc< dau tfl.
Nhdm tae gia tap trung vao viec phan tich anh hfldng cfla ddng lien den nguon vdn
r r n X Xgoai ra, nhdm tae gia dfla them cac dae dii'm cua cdng ty vao md hinh hdi quy nhfl quy md cdng t\' va cP hdi tang trfldng. Theo Ldpez-Ciraciava Sogorb-Mira (2014), cac edng t\' ldn thudng cd kha nang thay the gifla ngudn von TTBX va ddng tien de cd dUpc lpi the kmh te vequy md (!ohpi tang trfldng dfldc kyvong ed tac ddng cflng chieu den ngudn vdn TTliX
M6 hinh co ban cua nhdm tac gia dflpc xac dmh nhfl sau:
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G R O W l l l +E, ' " (1) Trong do I-.XITTX • sU thay doi trong ngudn vdn T I BX cua cdng t)' i vao thdi diem t;
Si7e^ - quy md cua cong ty; GROWTH^ - ed hdi tang trudng; CashFlow - ddng tien; £^ - sai sd.
De udc Ifldng phflpng trinh 1, nhdm tae gia sfl dung cac hdi quy OLS gdp. md hinh tac ddng cddinh (FEM) va m d h i n h tac ddng ngau nhien (REMi. tfldng tfl phflpng phap tiep can cua Almeida va Campello (2010), Ldpez-Gracia va SogorbMira (2014). Tuy nhien, hien tflpng phfldng sai thay ddi dfldc tim thay trong md hinh nghien cflu (the hien qua kiem dinh
phfldng sai thay ddi Wald vdi gia thuyet H : khdng tdn tai phfldng sai thay doi), do dd, theo sfl de nghi cua Tabak va ctg (2011). nhdm tac gia sfl dung fldc Ifldng binh phUdng tdi thieu tdng quat kha thi (Feasible Generalized Least Squares - FGLS) de han ehe hien tflpng nay 3.2. Dfl lieu
Dfl Ueu nghien cflu dfldc thu thap tfl cae bao cao tai ehinh thfldng nien eua eac cdng ty niem vet iren hai san giao dich chflng khoan HXX va HOSE dang tai tren website vietstock.
\ - va eua eac CTPXY (cac cdng ty thude san O 1 C va eac edng tv thupc san UPCOM) tren website Stox.vn trong giai doan 2008-2014.
Sau khi cac cdng ty tai chinh va cac cdng t\' khdng cd dfl lieu lien tuc trong giai doan 2008-2014 dfloc loai bd, mau nghien eflu bao gdm 665 cdng ty phi tai chinh vdi 509 cdng t)- phi tai chinh niem yet va 156 cdng ty phi tai chinh phi niem yet, cung cap 3 990 quan sat cdng ty - nam.
Bang 1: So It/cfng cong ty theo nganh
^^B^^^H
Cong n g h e t h o n g t i n Cong n g h i e p DSu k h i D i c h v u t i e u d u n g DUdc p h a m va y te 1 H a n g l i e u d u n g
N g u y e n v a t h e u Tien ich cong d o n g Tong
21 2 4 3
5 4 3 18 8 2 7 0 27 5 0 9
2 74 1 13 5 33 15 13 156
Bien phu thude EXTFIX^^ dfldc tinh loan bang each lay sfl chenh lech gifla gia tri so sach eua nd va vdn chii sd hflu Irong thdi ki t va t-l nhfl dflpc trinh bay trong bang mo ta bien. Tfldng tfl, each do Ifldng Iflpng co phieu phat hanh them va vay np them dflpc de cap trong bai nghien eflu cua Almida va Campello (2010). Theo Sehoubben va Van Hulle (2011).
de chuan hda each tinh nay, nhdm tac gia thfle hien phep chia cho tong doanh thu:
S6 1308r131 Thang 01&02-2017 TAC i ' - ^ ' C O N G N G H E NGAN HANG 4 1
MfilQUAKHEGlQA n..,r.TI>KV>NGU(iNV6KT>irR0BiNNG0AKiACACCaNGTYNItMYgTV>PKimiMrfT
. EXTFIND la ri" so gifla sfl thay doi cua ncl CO tinh lai (vay no ngan hang) trong nam t va nam t - 1 tren tong doanh thu;
. EXTFIXE la tj' so gifla sfl chenh lech cua von CO phan trong nam t va nam t-l tren tong doanh thu;
. EXTFIN la ty so gifla sfl chenh lech cua np CO tinh lai (vay no ngan hang) trong nam t va nam t-l cgng IflOng thay doi trong von co phan trong nam t va nam t-l tren tong doanh thu.
Bien doc lap SIZE the hien quy mo cong ty vi dfloc xac dinh la logarith tfl nhien cua tong tai san, GROWTH the hien cac cO hoi tang trfldng, la phan tram thay doi trong tong doanh thu trong nam t va nam t-l va cuoi
cung CASHFLOW the hien dong tien, dfl(Jc xac dinh la ty so cua thu nhap hoat ddng ldnh doanh cpng vdi khau hao tren tong tai san.
Bang 3 the hien thong ke mieu ta cac bien dflpc xem xet trong bai nghien cflu. Nhin chung, cac bien dai dien nguon von TTBN (bao gom ca np va von co phan) ciia cac CTNY deu CO mflc trung binh cao hPn so vdi cac CTPNY.
Dieu nay cho thay rang cac CTNY tang cfldng sfl dung nguon von TTBN manh hdn so vdi cac CTPNY va cac cong ty bi rang buoc tki chinh kho huy dpng nguon von TTBN. Ben canh do, quy mo cua cac CTNY va CTPNY cung co sif khac biet ro ret va cd hpi tang trfldng cua cac CTPNY (0,0377) thap hpn so vdi cac CTXY (0,1039). Dieu nay ham y rang cac CTPNY
Bang 2: Motacac bien
^^^^nffl^^^HHIR^I^^^^^^^HSB^^^^^^^HH
Si/gia tdng nd
Sl/gia tdng von chu scf hu'u
Quy mo Cd hpi tSng trUdng Dong tien
EXTFIND
EXTFINE EXTFIN SIZE GROWTH CASHFLOW
Ty SO giOfa si/ thay doi ciia n<f c6 tfnh ISi tren tong doanhthu
Ty so gijjfa sfl thay doi cua von tren tong doanh thu Tonq cua EXTFIND va EXTFINE
Logarith tu* nhien cua tong tai san PhSn trSm thay doi trong t6ng doanh thu Thu nhap hoat dong l<mh doanh cong khau hao tren tong tai san
*
t
Bang 3: Thong ke mieu ta cac bien
^ ^ ^ ^ • ^ B ^ B P ^ ^ ^ ^ g Q
Si^ gia t i n g nguon von TTBN SU gia tSng nguon von TTBN Sl/gia t^ng T\(f SUgia tSng nO SU gia tfing von chu scr iitjru SU gia tang v6n chu sd hUu Quy mo
Quy mo Ctf hoi tSng trUdng CO hoi tfing trudng Dbng uen Dong tien
CTPNY CTNY CTPNY CTNY CTPNY CTNY CTPNY CTNY CTPNY
CTNY CTPNY CTNY
0,0212 0,0473 0,0016 0,0194 0,0196 0,0279 26,1455 26,7421 0,0377 0,1039 0,1012 0,1392
0,1732 0,1493 0,1611 0,1294 0,0598 0,0713 1,2333 1,4009 0,5235 0,4067 0,2513 0,1883
-0,0419 -0,0170 -0,0490 -0,0303 0,0000 0,0000 25,2492 25,8518 -0,1231 -0,0391 0,0427 0,0658
0,0946 0,1125 0,0684 0,0735 0,0000 0,0202 26,9088 27,6427 0,2268 02492 0,1716 0,1766
936 1 3.054
936 3.054
936 3.054
936 3.054
936 3.054
936 3.054
4 2 TAPCHiCONGNGHENGANHANG \ Thang01402.2017 S6130&131
PHAN GIA QUYEN • BUI V A N HUY • HA THI MY D U Y E N
phai doi dien vcri cac rang bupc tai chinh vi bi han che trong tiep can thj tnidng von. \ 6 cung chi ra rang cac cong ty co toe dp tang trUdng cao theo duoi viec niem yet tren san chiing khoan quyet liet hcfn so vdi die cong ty con Iai.
4 . Ket q u a thiTc n g h i e m
Ma tran he so tUOng quan cua cac bien trong bai nghien ciiu duoc trinh bay trong cac Bang 4 va 5 Ian Iiipt doi voi cac CTXY va cac CTPN\'. Co the thay rang, quy mo va nguon von TTBX cua cong ty co quan he dong bien d miic V nghia 1%, ngoai trii trUOng hdp tai trcJ bang von co phan. Ben canh do, cac cong tv c6 ca hpi tang triidng cao thUdng co nguon von TTBX cao hon so vdi cac cong ty con lai.
Cuoi ciing, he s5 tilOng quan giifa cac bien dpc lap trong bai nghien ciiu kha thap trong ca hai nhom CTNY va CTPXY. He so tilOng quan giiia cac bien dpc lap trong ca hai nhom cong ty Ian lUpt deu nhd hOn hoac bing 0,1292 va 0,1976. Dieu nay cho thay rang gifla cac bien khong ton tai hien tUpng da cong tuyen trong mo hinh nghien ciiu.
Sau khi xem xet moi tUdng quan gifla cac bien, nhom tac gia tien hanh Idem dinh hien tUdng phflpng sai thay doi thong qua kiem dinh Wald. Ket qua kiem dinh cho thay, p-value cua kiem dinh nho hpn miic y nghia 10% doi vdi ca CTNT vk CTPNY trong tat ca die each do liidng nguon von TTBN, do dd nhdm tac gia bac bd gia thuyet H^, va vi the ton tai hien tilpng phfldng sai thay doi trong md hinh nghien eflu. De han che hien tflpng nay, nhdm tae gia thflc hien fldc Iflpng phfldng trinh (1) theo phfldng phap FGLS doi vdi hai nh •,>m CTNT va CTPNY theo nhfl de nghi cua Tabak va etg {2011). Ket qua fldc Ifldng dflpc trinh bay trong Bang 6 cho thay ring cae dae diem cua cong ty deu tac ddng dang ke den viec tang np va nguon vdn TTBN cua ea CTXY Ian CTPNY. Cu the, co hdi tang trfldng co tac dpng dong bien dang ke den viec tang nd cua cdng t\- va tae ddng nay Idn hdn doi vdi eae CTPNY.
Hay ndi mpt each khac, khi cd hpi tang trfldng cua cac cong ty cang hien thflc, cac cdng ty cd xu hfldng gia tang eang manh hdn viec sfl dung nguon von TTBX theo hinh thflc vay np. Quy Bang 4 : Ma tran tu'dng quan doi vdi cac bien so cua cac CTNY
c i c CTNY EXTFIND EXTFINE EXTFIN SIZE GROWTH
CF
EXTFIND 1 0 , 0 2 4 2 0 , 8 7 8 5 — 0 , 1 2 9 3 — 0 , 1 4 7 5 — - 0 , 0 2 7 2
EXTFINE
1 0 , 4 9 8 8 —
- 0 , 0 0 4 3 0 , 2 0 8 3 — 0,0157
EXTFIN
1 0 , 1 T - - 0 , 2 2 7 4 " *
- 0 , 0 1 6 1 SIZE
1 0 , 0 5 9 "
-0,0117
GROWTH
1 0 , 1 2 9 2 —
CASHFLOW
1
*, ' * , • • ' ti/dng ifng mite y nghta 10%, 5%, 1%
Bang 5: Ma tran tUcfng quan doi vdi cac bien so cua cac CTPNY
^M!^^fSf&^^MW9f!llfrmm»'Ai^\i\mm?!9I^IMW^m^mmmm9fmw9mm^
EXTFIND EXTFINE EXTFIN SIZE GROWTH
CF
J J - 1
0 , 0 2 4 5 _ ! 0 , 9 3 8 5 " ' '
0 1 6 0 V 0 , 1 8 9 4 ' " I
! 0,011 1 0 3 6 8 1 " *
0 , 0 0 9 5 0 , 1 1 6 " "
0 , 0 2 2 9 1 0 , 1 5 2 2 " ' 0 , 2 1 6 2 ' "
0,0181 1 0 , 0 6 8 3 "
- 0 , 0 4 5 9 1 0 , 1 9 7 6 —
1
,
1
• ti/dng ifng m&c y nghTa 10%, S%, 1%
S6130&131 niangO1&02 2017 TAPCh. CONG NGHg NGAN HANG 4 3
HOI QUAN HUtOADONGTl(NVANGU(5«V6NTAITROB£N NGOAICOACACCONGTYNlEMYfTVA PHI NIEM YfT
md cong ty co moi quan he ddng bien voi Mec tang sfl dung nd, nhflng chi doi vdi cac CTX'i' Mat khac, ddng tien the hien tae dpng nghich bien dang ke den viec sfl dung np va nguon vdn TTBN cua cac CTXY, Tuy nhien, tac ddng nghich bien nay khdng cd y nghia thdng ked mflc 10% doi vdi CTPNY. Dieu nay phu hpp vdi cac phat hien trong cac nghien cflu trfldc day (Shyam-Sunder va Myers, 1999;
.Murray va Vidhan, 2007; Almeida va Campello, 2010; Ldpez-Gracia va Soyorb-Mira, 2014).
Khi ddng tien tang Ien, cac CTX"^' tang cfldng sii dung ngudn von nay de tai trd cac quyet dinh cua minh, ddng thdi tra cac khoan nd tdi han, Iam giam Iflpng von TTBX can huy ddng them. Trong khi dd, cac CTPX^i" cd xu hudng thfle hien dau tfl ndi sinh de tao ra Ipi nhuan an toan hdn cho du ddng tien cao hay thap. Dong thdi, cac edng ty bi rang bupc tai chinh nay rat khd khan trong viec huy dpng np va phai chiu mdt mflc rui ro cao nen dong tien khdng anh hfldng den quyet djnh cua CTPNY cd tang np hay khdng.
Trong trfldng hpp ddi vdi each do Ifldng ngudn vdn TTBN bang sfl gia tang von chu sd hflu, dong tien cua ca hai Ioai cdng iv deu khong CO tac ddng den ngudn vdn TTBN. Hdn nfla, quy md ed tac ddng dong bien den sfl gia tang vdn chu sd hflu d mflc y nghia thong ke 5% ddi vdl ea C I XV va CTPXY, tuy nhien, tae dgiiy iia\' tfldng ddi khdng dang ke.
Trong khi dd, cd hdi tang trfldng the hien tac ddng ddng bien den sfl gia tang vdn chu sd hflu cung nhfl gia tang np.
Sau khi phan tich sfl khac biet ve anh hfldng cua ddng tien den ngudn von TTBX ciia cic ( I X't' va CTPNY, nhdm tac gia xem xet sfl khae biet gifla cac CTX^" cd quy md Idn va quy md nhd trong viec Ifla chpn cac ngudn vdn ITBX cua minh. Xhom tae gia xac dinh cong ty cd quy mo Idn la cdng t)' cd quy md trung binh ldn hon gia tri quy md trung binh cua cac cdng t\' trong mau nghien cflu va ngflpe Iai. cdng ty cd quy md nhd la cdng ty cd quy md trung binh nhd hon quy md trung binh cua cac cdng ty trong mau nghien eflu.
Ke't qua dfldc the hien trong Bang 7 cho thay
Bang 6: Ket qua Udc li/dng anh hi/dng cua dong tien den nguon von TTBN theo tinh trang niem yet cija cac cong ty
KiemdinhWald Bien phM thupc: Ky Si/giatSngv6n vpng
chusorhoru
CO hoi tang tri/dng Dong tien
Kiem d|nh Wald
0 , 0 0 2 " ' (3,68) 0,018*"
(8,9S|
0,002 (0,64) - 0 , 0 3 2 " '
(-2,74) 0,001"
(2,1) 0 , 0 0 6 " "
(3,06) 0,001 (0,5) -0,030'
(-1,77)
Quy mo
Cd hpi tang tri/dng Dong tien
He so Chan
KiemdinhWald
0,010'«' (11,98) 0 , 0 6 2 " ' (14,08) -0,024">
(-3,21) - 0 , 2 4 4 ' "
(-10,76) 4 1 9 * "
0,014'"
(9,73) 0,052'"
(9,66) -0,010 (-1,46) - 0 . 3 5 9 ' "
(-9,71) ! 1 5 6 " ' ', *', "^ tUdng Ong C3C m&cy nghTa 10%, 5 « , ) « rang ve sil anh hudng cua dong tien den nguon von TTBN ciia cong ty, co sU khac biet dang ke gifla cac CTNY co quy mo IcSn va quy mo nhd ngoai trfl trUcing hop nguon von TTBN bJng von chil scf hiiu.
r:fC6NG NOHE NGAN HANO , Thang 01M2 2017
PHAN GIA QUVEN . BUI V»N HUY • HA THI MV OUVEN
Bang 7: Ket qua Udc ii/dng anh hudng :i,5 a:- 5 tien den nguon vdn TTBN theo
quy mo cija cac CTNY
Bien phu thupc:
SiTgiatSngntf Guy mo
CcJhoi tang tn/dng Dong tien
He so chan
0,006—
(3,1) 0,052—
(8,77) -0,117""
(-7,86) -0,138"
(-2,46) 0,0109—
(2,99) 0,0318—
(4,72) -0,0141
(-1,14) -0,275—
(-2,93) Bien phu thupc:
s v g i . « „ g v 6 n ' " ; » ™ «"»
chusdhBu ' " " ""
Quy mo
Cdhoi tang trUcfng Dong tien
He sdchSn
•0,003 (-0,11) 0,162*-- (2,97) -0,150 (-1,35) 0,145 (0,18)
mo
0,002"
(2,41) 0,017"*
(6,00}
-0,001 (-0,15) - 0 , 0 5 5 "
(-2,05) Bien phu thuoc: Quy mo Q Su-gia tang TTBN ldn
jymo 1 nho Quy mo
Cd hoi tang ' trt/dng
0 , 0 1 3 1 " '
0 , 0 8 8 " - '8,26) - o . i : : - - -
(-3,07) 0,014-"
(3,14) 0 , 0 6 9 —
(8,63)
-0,059-- [-0,811
-0,021 (-1AI)_
- 0 , 3 2 5 - "
(-2,85) '. " , • " ti/dng lfng cac mWc y nghia 10%, 5%, 1%
Cu the, dong tien co tac dong nghich bien va CO y nghia thong ke a miic 1% den nguon von TTBN ciia cac CTX'i' quy mo lon. Tuy nhien, tai: dpng nghich bien ciia dong lien den nguon von TTBX ciia CTXY co quy mo nho duoc tim thay. nhUng khong co y nghia thong ke. Dieu nav ham y rang cac (.iTVi' quy mo lon {khong bi rang buoc lai chinh) co dong ticn cang ldn thi cang giam cac khoan
TTBX cua cong t\'. Xoi mpt each khac, cac cong t\- nay c6 xu hUPng su dung cac nguon quy ben trong thay \ i phat hanh vay np hoac von chu SP hClu. Phat hien nay phii hPp vpi ly thuyet trat t a phan hang va cac b^ng chiing thiic nghiem tif cac nghien cifu triipc (Almeida va Campello, 2010; Lopez-Gracia va Sogorb-Mira, 2014).
5. Ket luan va ham y chmh sach Bai nghien ciiu cung cap bang chiing thUc nghiem ve moi quan he giiia nguon von TTBN va Jong tien vai \iec sii dung dii Heu bang cua -) CTXV khong rang buoc tai chinh) va 156 i-TPXY {rang bupc tai chinh) tai \'ie( Xam trong giai doan 2008-2014. Ket qua nghien ciiu cho thay rang dong tien co lac dong nghich bien dang ke den nguon von TTBX ma diiPc do ludng bang sii thay doi trong np va von ci) phan ciia cac CTNT. Do do, cac cong ty khong rang bupc tai chinh co xu hUctng giam np (hoac bat ki nguon von TTBX nao khac) kha manh mekhidoi dicn voi sU gia tang ciia dong tien so voi c^c cong ty rang buoc tai chinh. Dieu nay cho thay rang bait can xiing thong tin co the khong phai la nguyen nhan chinh trong quyet dinh tai trp cua cac CTX^' va CTPNY. Thay vao do, nhan to anh hudng dang ke den sii khac biet trong quyet dinh nguon von I TBX giiia cac CTXY \a CTPXY la nguon von ma cong tv sii dung (npi sinh va ngoai sinh) vdi cac rang bupc tai chinh. Ngoai ra, quy mo va cP hpi tang trUdng ciia cong ty the hien tac dpng nghich bien den cac nguon von TTBX cho ca hai nhom cong ty neu tren
Dong thdi, ton tai sU kJiac biet gifla cac CTX'i' CO quy mo ldn va quy mo nhd trong quyet dinh tai trp von. Dieu do cho phep ciing CO nhan dmh rang rang bupc tai chinh la nhan to quan trpng trong viec dUa ra quyet dinh tai trp ciia cac cdng tv
Cac phat hien trong nghien cilu nay cung cap cai nhin rd hon ve quyet dinh TTBX ciia cac cong tv tai \'iet Xam va qua dd giiip cac nha quan tri xay dung nhung chinh sach, chien lupc phii hop vdi cdc muc tieu hoat dpng ciia cdng ty minh. Tu ket qua nghien ciiu, nhdm
S6130&131 Thang 01&02.2017 TAPC"iC6NGNGHeNGAN HANG ^ 5
MOI QUAN HE GlilADbNGTlENVA NGUON VdNrtlTROBENNGOAl CUA C^CCfiHGTY NIEM YfTVA PHI NIEM YfT
tac gia de xuat mdt so khuyen nghi cho cac nha dau tii nh§m gia tang cd hpi tang tnidng cua quan tri cong t)-. cdng t\' khi cdng ty dang co nhu cau huy dpng Thii nhat, cic CTXY cd quy md ldn nen von ben ngoai (np va vdn chu sd hilu) de tai tnf can nhac kl nee danh doi giiia chi phi va ldi cho cac dii an cd Idi nhuan.
ich khi huy ddng von ben ngoai dudi hinh thtfc Cuoi ciing, ckc CTPXY nen nd luc hoin
\av np de tan dung lpi ich tam chan thue khi thien cac tieu chuan de diipc mem yet tren hai ddng tien dang ddi dao. Bdi v\ vice huy ddng san giao dich chiing khoan HOSE va HXX, til von ben ngoai trong tinh trang dU thifa ddng dd cd the khSc phuc van de bat can xiing thong tien se khien cong ty phai ganh chiu cac loai tin va chi phi Itia chpn doi nghich. Dieu nay chi phi gay ton kem va lam giam hieu qua hoat se giiip cho cac cdng t)' nav c6 the tiep can voi dpng cLia cdng t\'. cac ngudn von TTBN (np va von chu sd hiiu)
Thti hai, doi vdi ca cac CTX"^" lan CTPXY, de dang hdn, hoac cd the huy ddng von vdi chi cd the gia tang quy md va tim kiem cac cd hpi phi re hpn so vdi khi chifa diipc niem yet.
Tai lieu tham khao
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trai nghiem. Tap chi Nghien cUu vt) trao JCi. 24(34). pp. 31 -39.
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^o„™;Vpp",;tT04?''" " '"'"• """""' """-'"" -' -'•--'' "''" — V ^'^
..a:::^;i,in:^^:r.:,:2:;z:;t-":'-"""""' ^"'"" -"—°'
Oliner. S.D and Rudebusch G D (19951 i ,K U . .
fi™e»-«™/Reserve a , , , t „ / & , „ p „ „ „ - J „ ; * " ' ' ^'"'^ ' ' " " ' " 8 channel for mone.ary policy! ton»mir
4 6 .AP CHI CONG N G H E NGAN HANG
PHAN GIA QUYf N • BUI V A N HUY • HA THI MY DUYEN
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So 1306,131 Thang 01&02.2017 TAP CHl C 6 N G NGHE N G A N HANG 4 7
M6lQU»N Ht GIOA M N G H f N V» NOUISN V6N TAITROBt» NG0*l COA CAC tONO TY N l f M YiT VA PHI N | £ M VET
The relationship between cash flow and external finance of listed and non-listed firms
Phan Gia Quyen"!
Bui Van Huyi'i Ha Thi My Duyen'"
Received: 08 January 2016 I Revised: 02 January 2017 I Accepted: 10 January 2017
ABSTRACT: This paper examines the difference between listed (financially unconstrained) and non-listed (financially constrained) f i r m s with regard to cash flow and external finance during the period fronn 2008 to 2014. Using FGLS method, the findings show that listed firms are likely to reduce their external finance when their cash flow increases. In addition, the relationship between cash flow and external finance of large listed firms appears to be stronger in large listed firms than in small listed f i r m . Meanwhile, f i r m s of larger size and higher growth opportunities are likely to increase their external finance than firms of smaller size. This can be found in both listed and non-listed firms. The findings are consistent with pecking order theory when this theory is applied to financially unconstrained firms.
KEY WORDS: listed firm, non-listed firm, financial constraint, cash flow, financial decisions.
Phan Gia Quyen
Email: [email protected]]m Bui Van Huy
Email: [email protected].
Ha Thi My Duyen
Email: myduyen0303@gmail-com
I Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial Joint Stock Bank
266 - 268 Nam Ky Khol Nghia, Ward 8, District 3. Ho Chi Minh City.
.11 Ho Chl City Securities Corporation
Level 5 a 6, AB Tower, 76 Le Lai, District 1, Ho Chi Minh City 31 Diamond Star Consulting Services Jsc
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