CHAU MY NGAY NAY S6 02-2016
QUAN HE MY PAKISTAN SAU Sir KIEN 11/9
Q
uan he My - Pakistan la moi quan he c6 lich su lau dai va diy thang ttim. Ke tir thdi ky Chifln franh Lanh, Pakistan dupe xem nhu mpt dpng minh then chflt cua My d Trung A vdi vai tip cung cip cp sd cho cac boat dpng quan su cita My, tham gia vap cac hpat dpng chflng khiing bo d Afghanistan va Pakistan, dong thai la ttung gian ttong quan he giua My va Trung Quflc. Tuy nhien, sau khi Chifln ttanh Lanh chim diit, tinh chat chien lupc trpng mfli quan he ciia My vdi Pakistan da mit di. Tham chi, trpng nhiing nam 1990, viec Pakistan tuyfln bd chuong ttinh hat nhan va tifln hiinh cac thit ngMflm hat nhan da vap phai mflt lim sdng nhiing Iflnh ttOmg phat tit Washington. Dau thfl ky XXI, ngudi ta lai chimg kifln mpt giai doan hpp tac mdi trpng quan he My - Pakistan. Cupc tan cflng ngay 11/9/2001 vap nudc My da khien Pakistan mpt lan niia trd thanh dflng minh cua My trong cupc chifln chdng lai chu nghia khiing bfl. Nhitng npi dung dudi day se dfl cap cu thfl ban vfl mfli quan he My - Pakistan frong giai doan mdi nay.Nguyen Khanh V3n*
1. Chuyen huang quan he My Pakistan dir&i thoi G. W. Bush.
Sir chuyen hir&ng sau ngdy 11/9.
Dimg nhu tinh chat thang fram cua mfli quan he, mpt lin niia "ky nguyfln vang" da quay frd lai frpng quan he giira My vit Pakistan sau ngay 11/9. Chinh quyfln Bush tin rang khflng thfl ttfln hanh cac hpat dflng tai Afghanistan, ciing nhu loai bd Taliban ma khflng cd su frp giiip cua Pakistan, khflng chi vi dit nudc nay cMem mpt vi tri dia chinh fri then chdt, mil cdn bdi nhirng lifln he mat thiet ciia Pakistan frpng gidi Hfli giao. Ngay 13/9/2001, Thir trudng Ngoai giao My Richard Armitage da chuyfln cho Dai sii Pakistan tai Hoa Ky va Co quan tinh bao Pakistan (ISI) mpt danh sach gdm bay yflu cau' dfl nghi Islamabad hop tac frong cupc chien chflng khiing bfl.
Pakistan, dudi su lanh dao ciia chinh quyfln quan su Musharraf, nhan thiy day lit CO hfli dfl dua Pakistan tai hda nhap vao san choi chung ciia cac nudc sau mpt giai dpan dai chiu cac lenh frimg phat tir My va hudng lpi mpt lan nQa tir su gilip da bfln ngoai, da nhanh chdng gat bd nhung phan dfli frong nudc va chap nhan cac dieu kien ciia My. Ngay
(•) Viin Nghiin dm Chdu My
CHAU MY NGAY NAY 12/11/2001, ttong chuyen vieng tham
chmh thue My cua Tong thong Pakistan, hai nudc da cd Tuyfln bd chimg nhan m^mh vfl sire manh ciia tinh hilu nghi
"50 nam" giila My va Pakistan.
Cac bien phap trung ph^t ma Washington ap dat vdi Pakistan da nhanh chdng dupe da bd, dieu nay cho phep Islamabad khflng chi nhan dupe nhirng khpan vay cua My, ma cdn cd thfl giii binh si dfln My huan luyen quan su - diflu khflng thfl tir sau nam 1990. Ben canh do, Pakistan cdn nhan dupe rat rdiiflu fra giup tir quoc tfl dfl bu dap cho nhiing tac dflng cua cupc khung hpang Afghanistan dfln nudc nay.
Ung hp cupc cMen chflng khiing bfl cita My nhung Chinh quyfln Pakistan van duy tri mpt chinh sach riflng ddi vdi Afghanistan, theo hudng dua nhung
"ngudi Taliban fln hda" vao frong chinh phit doan ket dan tpc, franh dfl Afghanistan rdi khdi anh hudng cita Pakistan. My khflng ung hp nhung y djnh nay cua Islamabad. Ngay ca sau kM chiflm dupe Kabul, My cung phan dfli y dinh cua Pakistan dua nha lanh dao ngudi Pashtun Pir Sayed Gailani ISn nam quyfln. Tren thue te, frong su hpp tac hrong chimg khang kUt, My van giii su canh giac cao vdi chinh quyfln Musharraf', cdn Pakistan quy kflt tmh hai mat frong img xii ciia Washmgton.
Vdi su sup dfl cua Taliban, Pakistan da thue su mit di "cMflu sau cMfln lupc"
d Afghamstan, dac biet la sp vdi An Dp.
Cac mfli quan he giiia Islamabad va
Kabul da frd nen kho khan ban kfl tu kM Taliban thoat ly dan su anh hudng ciia Pakistan. Trong qua trinh tai tMet d Afghamstan, Pakistan khang cd dupe lpi the frong kflt cau quyfln luc mai.
Nhu vay, tit dau nhiing nam 2000, hop tac giua My - Pakistan da cho thiy su song lai cua mfl hinh quan he "cd di cd lai" nhimg nam 1980, vfln chiu tac dpng nMflu hi sue ndng ctia quan hfl ca nhan Bush Musharraf giong nhu Reagan - Zia trudc day. Ben canh vi$c tai hda nhap cua Pakistan, chinh quyfln Musharraf da cd dupe ba dieu quan frpng: Thu nhdt la ttpng vin dfl pho bifln hat nhan, Washington da lam ngo dfli vdi chupng trinh hgt nhan cita Pakistan bat chap nhiing vu tai tiflng ve viec Pakistan chuyfln giao cflng nghe hat nhan cho Bac Triflu Tifln (thang 10/2002) va ban cac thiet bi chfl tao vu kU hat nhan cho Iran, BSc Trieu Tien, Iraq va Libya (1/2004). Thii- hai la su dam bao vdi che dp quan su do Musharraf diing dau. Gng nay da tuyen bfl khong tuan theo nhiing menh lenh cita Tda an Tfli cao Pakistan lien quan dfln viec to chiic bau cu frong vdng ba nam kfl tii khi ong nam quyfln, ma se tiflp tuc nam giU quyfln luc bat kfl ket qua bau cir nay thfl nao. Tuyfln bo nay da khdng tao nfln su phan dfli, chinh thirc,cung nhu khong chinh thiic,tir My.
Thir bg la nhiing ho ttp chua timg co cua My cho Pakistan. Trong hai nhiflm ky cua George Bush, tii nam 2002, vien tta cua My cho Pakistan vao khoang
CHAU MY NGAY NAY S6 02-2016 1,114 dfln 2,043 ty USD mdi nam, tflng cpng la 12,140 ty USD ttong vdng bay nam . Cac chi phi hfln quan dfln an ninh cMflm ty le khong 16: 73,35%. My da tai ttp gin mpt phin tu cho ngan sach qudc phdng ciia Pakistan ttong giai doan 2002-2008^ Ca quan tinh bao Pakistan (ISI) tham chi cdn dupe CIA cM tta mpt phan ba ngan sach'.
Chia re trong giai doan cuoi cda chinh quyen Bush.
Tit nam 2007, chinh quyfln My da IP ngai vfl su bat luc cua nhiing nha cim quyen Pakistan ttong cupc cMen chflng khiing bfl, dac biet tji Cac khu vuc Hanh chinh Bp lac Lifln bang (FATA), vfln la khu vuc lin ttfln cua mpt sd lupng ldn thanh vifln Taliban va kfl cd chire sac cita Al-Qaeda sau kM chinh quyen Taliban d Kabul sup dfl. Thang 9/2008, My nhan dupe thflm nhitng tin tiic tinh bao vfl viec quan chiic cap cac ctia ISI bap che chp luc lupng khiing bfl'. Su nudc dfli cita Pakistan ttpng van dfl FATA cd thfl dupe giai tMch nhu sau:
Nha chuc ttach Pakistan, ngudi da dfl chfl dp Taliban "ra di" vdi su hfli ttflc, mufln cac luc luong NATO nit di citng nhanh cang tflt dfl cd thfl dua Mullah Omar, hoac mpt ttpng cac phu ta ctia flng Ifln nim quyen ttd lai. Diflu nay se giiip Pakistan phuc hfli dupe "chiflu sau cMfln lupc" va ngan chan nhiing ngutri An Dp dat chan vao Afghanistan vdi su giup da ciia Karzai.
My da gay ap luc len Pakistan tii nam 2001 de dat dupe thda thuan trifln khai
quan d FATA. Tuy nhifln, nhung thda thuan nay deu da bi pha vd vap nam 2007'.Tinh bap My che ring cac cupc dam phan ngimg ban tai khu vuc FATA da chp Taliban, Al-Qaeda va nhiing ke Hfli giap cue doan co hpi dfl xay dung lai mang ludi cua minh"'. Thue tfl nay, theo My, phan anh su bat luc, nudc doi ttong hanh dpng cua chinh quyfln Pakistan. Diflu nay da tao nfln su chia se sau sac ttong quan he song phuong.
Mpt bat dflng khac giai doan nay chinh la su day manh true quan he An Dp - My. Dau nhiing nam 2000, ngudi ta chting kifln su xich lai gin nhau chua tiing thay giUa An Dp va My. Thu tudng An Dp Atal Bihari Vajpayee (1998- 2004) thue Men mflt chinh sach doi ngoai phu thupc nMflu vao My. Cac cupc tap ttgn quan su chung, bap gdm ca ttfln bfl, frfln bifln va fren khdng da frd thanh thudng ky. Nam 2005, My va An Dp da ky kflt mpt thda thuan dupe gpi la
"bau frdi ma(open skies)" de tang cudng lien kflt hang khflng giila hai nudc va thiflt lap mpt quan he dfli tac chifln lupc thue su. Trpng chuyfln tham den An Dp cita Tflng thflng George Bush, My da ttao cho An Dp chfl dp dac biet: mac dii khflng ky Hiep udc khflng phd bifln vii khi hat nhan, nhung cho phep nhiing chuyfln giap nhay cam (bap gflm ca uranium duac lam giiiu) dfln An Dp vi thanh tuu ctia hp ttpng ITnh vuc khflng phfl bifln hat nhan va dan chu'. Diflu nay cd nghia 82 Id phan ling hat nhan van nam dudi su kiflm saat duy nhit cua cac
CHAU MY NGAY NAY nha chuc ttach An Dp, nhiing ngudi rat
cd the se phat frifln kho vu kM quan su.
Lo ngai dfli vdi Pakistan la rit ldn vi tir lau tinh chat thii dich ttong quan hfl Pakistan - An Dp khflng hfl suy giam. Su tang cudng quan he An - My da va se tiflp tuc tac dflng xau dfln quan hfl My - Pakistan. Diflu nay gdp phin lam cho quan he spng phuang xau dan di giai dpan cudi nhung nam 2000.
2. Quan he My Pakistan duo^i thoi Barack Obama.
Tir frirdc khi budc vao Nha Tring, Tflng thflng Barack Obama da nit ra ba kflt luan tii nhung thit bai ttong chinh sach ciia My d Afghanistan va doi vdi Pakistan: Thii nhdt, Pakistan khflng chi la mpt phan cua giai phap, ma ciing la mpt phin ciia van dfl d Afghanistan; Thir hai, dat cupc vac mflt nha dpc tai nhu Musharraf ttong mpt chiiih sach chii frpng vao an ninh tit se di dfln thit bai;
Thii ba, nflu Pakistan khdng cd nang luc hoan thanh cac boat dpng chong khiing bfl thi chinh My se phai tu lam. Vi vay, sau khi len nim quyfln, Tong thflng Obama da theo dufli mflt chinh sach cd nhiflu khac biet vdi chinh quyfln tifln nMem tgi Pakistan.
Phdt triin - dan chd hay an ninh - doc tai?
Y ttrdng vfl viec My phai xem xet lai mfli quan he vdi Pakistan da dupe nhen nhdm ttong phe Dan chii ttr ttirdc kM Obama len nim quyfln lanh dao dit nudc. Viec My dfl Mushairaf ra di ttong
giai doan nay dupe danh gia la xuit phat tir nhung can nhac ca cMfln lupc va cMfln thuat. Tir nam 2007, Mushanaf da khflng dupe ldng dan chiing. Mac dii vgy, Chinh quyfln Bush tiep tuc ling hp Musharraf vi khflng mudn lam gian doan viec thue hien cac chinh sach Afghamstan tiirdc khi kflt thue nhiem ky thit hai cua minh. Trong giai doan nay, tai Pakistan, cac phong frao phan ddi do gidi lugt su din dit cMu rit nhiflu dan ap khoe liet, diflu nay da gpi Ifln cam giac bat gn sau sic tai nudc My'°
Trpng chien dich franh cii nam 2008, Obama da bay td mpng mufln xay dung lai chinh sach d Nam A, flng cho ring My cM cd the budc ra chifln thing hi viing lay Afghanistan nflu tinh dfln ca cac nhan to mdi, dgc biet la tinh hmh Kashmir va van dfl Pakistan, Chinh quyfln Obama da dua ra khai niem
"AfPak" (chi Afghanistan/Pgkistgn), qua dd nhin mgnh su lifln he chat che cua cac vin de Afghanistan va Pakistan, mgc du Pgkistgn khflng hfl hai long khi bi dgnh dflng vdi mpt nha nudc mdi hinh thgnh vg phai chiu su bao hp nhu Afghanistan.
1 Dfl vupt qua khimg hoang Afghanistan va Pakistan, dgc biet chflng lai anh hudng ngay cang tang cita ngudi Hfli giap frfln nhiing dit nudc nay, Tflng thflng Obgma da bit tay vdi cac chinh phu dan cu. Diflu nay khac hin each thirc lam viec cita cac chlnh phit tifln nhiflm von chi coi quan dpi Pakistan la ngudi dfli thogi duy nhit Trong bai phat
CHAU M * NGAY NAY S 6 02-2016 biflu trudc quoc gia vfl cWnh sach eua My doi vdi Afghanistan va Pakistan vao thang 12/2009", flng da noi ring "quan he doi tac thue su vdi Pakistan la mpt frpng nhiing ttpng tam" frpng chifln lupc ciia My va mufln mang lgi chp mfli qugn he nay mpt cMeu hudng mdi.
KM gpi Ifln d day cac ngufln luc tai chinh danh chp phat trifln va dan chii cua Pakistan, Obama da dfl cap den Dao Mat Kerry-Lugar (Ban diu dupe biflt dfln dudi tfln gpi Du lugt Tang cucmg quan he dpi tac vdi Pakistanthang 7/2008). Tir diu, nd dupe xay dung nham pha va each thiic md ta quan he My - Pakistan nhu mpt su "giap dich" - am cM su bap tip - va thilc day "mpt mfli quan he bfln vilng, lau dai vit da chieu vdi Pakistan"'^. Diflu nay cho thay uu tifln hang dau tiong su hd frp ciia My vdi nfln chinh tri Pakistan khflng cpn la Idiia cgnh gn ninh ma la su phat trifln kmh tfl va xa hfli cua dat nude' . Su giiip dd ma My cam kflt diuih cha Pakistan thee Mat nay len dfln 1,5 ty USD mfli nam frpng 5 nam lifln tiflp. Dflng thdi, tir ngy, hfl frp tai chinh danh chp quan dpi Pakistan va ban vii khi hang nam se dupe thue Men voi hgi diflu kien: quan dpi Pakistanphai chiing minh cd nhiing
"nd Mc phfli hpp" voi My ttong cupc chifln chflng lgi cac nhdm Hdi gigo va khflng can tMep vao tifln ttinh chinh tri.
Nhu vay, tit nam 2009, chuih quyfln Obama da tim each pha va cgch thirc ma Washington tifln hanh mfli quan he vdi Pakistan. Vit dieu nay duoc the hifln rd
hon ttong thang 3/2010, khi Hillary Clinton khgi mgc Dfli thogi chifln lupc mdi giiia hai nudc. Dpng thai nay cho thiy mpt each tiep can tpan difln hem cita My ttpng quan he vdi Pakistan.
Su tr& lgi cda nhitng iru tien an ninh.
Chinh sach mdi dfli vdi Pakistan cita chinh quyfln Obama da nhanh chdng ggp phai nhiflu khd khan va mau thuan, ttong khituyfln bfl doan tuyet vdi su phi dan chii dpc tai va de cao vai tto cua chinh quyfln dan cii.
JTiii- nhdt, vfl van dfl ngudi dgi dien dfli thoai vdi My. Chinh quyfln dan su tgi Islamabad vfln dupe Tflng thdng Obama xac dinh nhu ngudi dfli thoai chinh, da dfl mat tin nhiem nhanh chdng.
Uy tin cua Tflng thflng Zardari giam sut cimg vdi nhung tai tieng vfl thgm nhung, che dp cgm quyfln gia dinh tri, su thiflu kha nang xgy dung qugn he cflng chimg,... Theo mot cupc khap sat cua Pew Center, chi cd 11% ngudi Pakistan dupe hdi img hp Zardari ttpng nam 2011, so vdi ty le 20% nam 2010, 32%
nam 2009 va 64% nam 2008*'' Nhung that bai cua Zardari ttong nhiing dau ttanh npi bp vdi phe quan su cang lam Washington that vpng. Vi vgy, chinh quyfln cug tdng thdng Obama da quay lgi hpp tac vdi gidi quan su. Khflng chi Rpbert Gates, ma ca Hillgry Clinton vg Jpc Biden da chpn ngudi dimg dau quan su - Tudng Kayani lam dfli tac thay thfl.
Thil hai, ngan sach danh cho quan dpi Pakistan lai tiflp tuc tang. Nguyen nhan chii yeu la nhiing quan ngai dfln an ninh
cua nudc My ngay cang tang, dgc Met lg sau am muu tin cdng khiing bfl bat thanh d Quang fruong Thdi dgi cug My nam 2010. Ke chii muu, Faisal Shazad, vira ttd ve tu mdt chuyen di nam thang tdi Pakistan, noi hin dudng nhu da dupe huin luyen boi cac tfl chuc thanh chifln nhu Jaish-e-Mohammed. Diflu nay da lgm khai dgy mflt s6 tinh cam chflng Pakistan d My vg su e ngai dfli vdi nhitng ngudi My nhap cu hogc cd ngudn gde til khu vuc "AfPak"". Su viec nay da cimg cfl thflm y nghi ciia nguoi My rang "AfPak" la cai nfli cua chu ngMa khimg bfl, nhiing ke da tan cflng nudc My thang 9/2001, va thiic giuc Washington danh gia lai vai frd cita van dfl an ninh ttong quan he vdi Pakistan.
Dflng thdi, quan dpi Pakistan d Bac va Nam Waziristan lufln gay sire ep vdi chinh quyfln Obama de ttd thanh ngudi dfli thoai hang dau va xay dung lai moi quan he bao ttp ttuyfln thong trudc day.
De thfl Men uu thfl ciia minh, Pakistan khflng ngan ngaiddng cira cac tuyen dudng vao Afghanistan ma NATO su dung dfl tiep tfl cho quan dpi khi giai dogn dam phan cang thing.
Nhiing nguyfln nhan nay dg thiic diy Chinh quyfln Obgma di ngupc lai vdi tilth than va nfli dung cua Dgo Mat Kerry-Lugar. Vien ttp cho cac vin dfl dan su cua My nam 2011 chua dgt dfln cac muc tiflu cua Dao Mat Kerry-Lugar (tMeu 414 ttieu USD)". Mgt khac, tien dupe sii dung de tai ttp cho cac du an qugn su vgn cMflm phin ldn vg tiflp tuc
tgng SP vdi chi pM danh chp dan su, tang 45% frpng nam 2009, 38,7% nam 2010 va 32,3% nam 2011. Ngpai khpan
"ngan sach hpat dpng" kha thpai mai, quan dpi Pakistan da nhan dupe tir Chinh quyfln Obama nMflu vii kM nhim chflng lai cac cupc nfli day d FATA.
Rat nhiflu hpp dflng vii khi mdi da dupe ky kflt. Ngogi rg, quan dpi Pakistan ciing dupe hfl frp ciic ttang tMflt bi quan su va SI quan quan dpi dupe di daa tap tgi My.
Nhu vgy, khdng giflng nhu cac cam kflt ctia Obama, dac biflt la nhiing mong dpi sau su ra ddi ciia Dao Mat Kerry- Lugar vfl viec tai can bang mfli quan he Pakistan My theo hudng chit ttpng phat trifln kinh tfl, vai frd cua yeu tfl quan su van tiflp tuc cMflm mot uu the ldn frong quan hfl song phupng.
Khdng hodng cda quan he song phuong dau nam 2011 va sir cdi thien.
Trong nam 2011, quan he giiig My vit Pakistan da thue su xau di sau nhirng mau thuan frong rat nhiflu van dfl lifln quan dfln hogt dpng chflng khiing bfl cita My. Viec My bi mat trien khai kfl beach Genpnimo tiflu diet Bin Laden nhu gipt nudc ttan ly khifln quan hfl sang phuong di vao khung hoang.
Su Men difln cua Bm Laden d Abbottabad da khifln ngudi My khflng khdi dgt cau hdi: hoac la Islamabad da nhan thirc duoc su Men difln eua Osama Bin Laden frfln dat cua hp va da bao che; hogc nudc nay hoan toan khflng biflt gi, diflu nay ddng nghia vdi su bat luc cita dong minh Pakistan ttong cupc
CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 02-2016 cMen chflng khiing bo. Du la ttudng hop nao, khoan vien frp len dfln vai ty USD moi nam ma My danh cho Pakistan dflu dang phai xem xet lgi.
Mpt chuoi nhiing su kifln sgu do da thiic day My thue Men su eat giam nay, nhu viec ten cua ngudi diing dau mdi cita CIA cf Islamabad da bi tiflt Id frfln frang nhat ciia nhat bap than vdi ISI la The Natipn' . Sau dd la cupc tan cflng vap can cir hai quan d Karaehi nggy 22/5 do luc lutjng al-Qaeda tifln hanh dupe tiflt Id la cd su dong Ida tir bp phgn qugn dpi Pakistan. Sau nhihig su kien niiy, Tflng thflng Barack Obgmg da quyflt dinh dinh chi, hogc huy bd mpt phan ba vien frp quan su etta My chp Pakistan tir ngay 9/7/2011. Tuy nMfln, bifln phgp nay vin chimang tinh chit cgnh cap vi cac chuyfln giap tMflt bi quan su frong do co vii kM - bat dau vdi may bay F-16 - khflng bi hiiy bo.
Su cang thang giila Pakistan va My tiflp tuc gia tang sau cupc tgn ccng khimg bfl tai Dgi sir quan My va tru sd chinh ciia NATO tai Kabul ngay 13/9/2011. Cupc tin ccng nay dupe phia My quy frach nhiflm chp mgng ludi Hgqqani. Nhu mpt hfl qua cua cupc tan cdng nay, Quflc hpi My sau dd da dua rg quyflt dinh sira dfli Dgo luat Keiry- Lugar vao ngay 23/9/2011, tiiep do "se khdng cd vien ttp cho Pakistan trir khi Ngogi trudng My xac nhgn ring Pgkistgn dang dgt dupe nhitng tifln bd frpng viflc thue Men nhung muc tiflu hfl tto My da dupe cM ra ttong Bao ego Hfl
ttp CMfln lupc Pakistan [...]" Trpng thang 12/2011, dap lgi viflc Pgkistan ddng cug cac tuyfln dudnng dfln Afghamstan sau vu My bin nham vap quan Pakistan d Salala, Quflc hpi My da thflng qua Dgp lugt Uy nhiflm Qudc phdng (NDAA) cimg ran ban n&a ttong cac diflu kifln cap vien ttp Pakistan. Dgc biflt, NDAA du kifln se "ddng bgng 60%cgc khpan tin dung ma Lau Nam Gde quan ly danh cho Quy chflng nfli day Pakistan (PCE) ttong nam 2012 neu Bd trucmg Quflc phdng khflng dua ra dupe trudc Qudc hpi chifln lupc cho viflc sti dung cac quy nay, cac tiflu chi danh gia hiflu qua, ciing nhu cac chifln lupc ciia Pgkistan dfl chflng lai cac thiflt bin6ttrtao(IED)""
Vfl phia Pakistan, nudc nay ciing da cd nhiing phgn img quyet liet trudc cac hanh dpng ciia My sau vu tiflu diflt Bin Laden. Quoc hpi Pakistan sau nMflu ttanh cai da dua ra Id ttinh "Huong dan cac Diflu khoan sua dfli Cam kflt vdi My/NATO/ISAF^° va Chinh sach Ddi ngoai chung". Van ban niiy dupe thflng qua ngay 12/4/2012, nhan manh: "Quan he vdi My phdi duac dua tren su tdn trong ldn nhau ve chu quyen, doc ldp vd todn ven Idnh tho; Anh huang cua My nen duoc gidm bat. Dieu ndy lien quan din (i) chdm din ngay cdc cuoc tdn cong ciia cdc mdy bay khong nguoi ldi tai bien giai ciiaPakislan, (il) chdm dirt viec xdm nhgp vdo Idnh tho Pakistan dual bdt ky ly do ndo, (ni) cdm sit dung khdng phdn Pakistan de vgn chuyen VH
CHAU MY NGAY NAY khi vd dgn duac din Afghamslgn;
Chuang trmh hgt nhdn cm Pakistan vd cdc thiit bl hgt nhdn md Pakistan co khong phdi Id muc tieu cua bdt ky xem xet ndo, ke cd lien qugn den an nmh vd an todn cua My. Cdc thoa thudn hat nhdn giiia My vd An Do dd ldm thay doi ddng ke cdn cdn lire luang trong khu vuc, do do, Pakistan phdi dgt duac nhiing dieu kien tuang tu vai My".
Ngoai ra, Quflc hpi Pakistan dpi My
"xin Ifli VP diflu kifln" vi cupc tin cflng d Salala gay ra cai chflt cua hai muoi bfln linh Pakistan, va nhan manh "se khflng mflt nhan vifln an ninh tu nhan va/hoac nhan vien tinh bao nap dupe phep boat dpng"tten lanh thfl Pakistan.
Sau khi ban "Hudng dan" nay dupe thflng qua, dam phan giila hai bfln ngay lap tiic da dupe nfli lgi. Tflng thflng Obama da chi dinh Marc Grpssmgn dfln Islgmgbad lam nguci lifln lac chinh vdi Uy ban Quflc phpng Nfli cac cua Pakistan (DCC). Hgi bfln nhit tti khflng de cap dfln van dfl may bgy tin cflng khflng ngudi lgi, vfln lg chu dfl ma My kien quyflt khflng thuang luong. Cac cupc thgo Man tap trung chu yflu vao s6 tifln bfli thudng theo yflu ciu cua Islamabad dfli lay viflc md lgi cgc tayen dudng den Afghanistan vdi con s6 dupe nflu ra khoang 1,8-3 ty USD^'
Sau mpt giai dogn dai cang thing, cufli cimg vao thang 7/2012, Ngoai ttudng My Hillary Clhitpn,ttong cupc hfli dam vdi ngudi dong nhiem Pgkistgn Hma Khar Rabbbani, vdi mong mufln dua
quan he dflng minh fra lgi quy dao sau bgng loat nhiing vin dfl ric rfli xay ra giila hai nudc tiidi gian qua, da ehu dpng xin Ifli pMa Pakistan vfl viflc My bin chflt 24 binh si Pakistan bfli thang 11/2011.
Dfli Igi pMa Pakistan ciing da dflng y nhupng bp frpng viflc che phep My va NATO sit dung cac tayfln duong qua ISnh thfl minh tiflp cgn Afghgnistgn^', Pakistan rapt lan nua lai nhan dupe nhiing khoan tai frp tir Quy Hfl frp Lien minh vpn da hi My dinh cM lgi sau khung hpang quan hfl song phuong.
Trong thdi gian gin day, dgc biet la sau khi cupc "chuyfln giap lich sir" giua hai chinh quyfln dan cu d Pakistan dien ra supn se vao ngm 2013 dug Thii tudng Nawaz Sharif Ifln nim quyfln, Pgkistgn da bat tay vao nMflu sang kien hd fra chp lpi ich cua My frong khu vuc. Dac biflt, sau vu tan cflng dam mau nhat ttong Heh sir Pakistan ngay 16/12/2014 vao trudng Peshawar, frong do Taliban da giet chflt 145 ngudi, gflm 132 fre em. Su kifln niiy da khifln Chinh phli Pgkistan quyflt tgm mgnh tay hon vdi khiing bfl. Kfl hpgch bgnh dflng quflc gia (NAP) nhim Ipai trir chii nghia khiing bfl ngay lap tiic dupe xay dung frong thang 12/2014. Vao thang 1/2015, Pakistan da bat diu cung co quan be qugn su vdi Afghgnistgn thflng qug tang cudng an ninh bifln gidi. Cung phii hpp vdi lpi ich cua Mji trong khu vuc, Pakistan dg theo dufli mfli quan he than thien ban vdi An Dfl bing viflc noi lai cac cupc ddi thoai vfl cac viing bien
CHAU MV NGAY NAY S 6 02-2016
gidi dang ttgnh chip cang thang Jammu va Kashmir.
Tuy nhifln, cd mpt thue te khac ma My ciing phai tinh dfln dd la nhiing rao can vdi quyflt tam chflng khiing bd cua Pakistan. Bp Npi vu Pakistan da cdng bfl rapt bap cEio vfl tifln trifln cua NAP 2014, ttong dd tiflt Id nhiing tifln bfl ngheo nan,su thdng tin sai lech va pha hogi tfl chire mdt cgch ed hfl thong ttong hogt dpng cita Kfl hpach nay. Ngpai ra, su mit ldng tm lau dai giiia Cue tmh bap dan su vg td chire qugn su himg diu ISI thudng kMfln viflc thflng tin hen Igc vg trifln khai boat dpng khong Men quii.
Ngoai ra, cac sang kifln ciig Pakistan ling hp lpi ich cita My ciing dang hi lu md rat nhiflu khi quan he Pakistan - Tnmg Quflc va Pakistan - Nga dupe tang cudng. Trpng kM dd, quan he voi An Dp chiu anh hudng xiu khi Pakistan tim each gia tang khe vii khi quan su cita minh thpng qua cac vu thii tfln lua diu nam 2015.
3. Mot vai nhan djnh.
d khu vuc Nam A, quan hfl ciia My dfli vpi Pakistan dupe danh gia la mfli quan he lau ddi va gan gQi nhat. Tii dong minh ttong CMfln franh Lgnh cho den dong minh frong cupc cMSn khiing bfl, hai nudc da xay dung dupe mflt quan he hop tac chat che frfln nMflu linh vuc va van dang tiflp tuc tim kiflm nhimg co sd mdi eho su hpp tac chifln lupc frpng tupng lai. Hpp tac frong linh vuc an ninh quan su cd thfl dupe xem lit
kMa cgnh dupe chii frpng vg Men qua nhat, hpp tac vfl chinh tri cung rit phat trifln va hpp tac kinh tfl cung da dupe quan tam.
Tuy nhifln, kfl tir giai dpgn mdi tMflt lap cho dfln nay, quan he My - Pakistan Cling cho thiy su thang frim va kem fln dinh. Sau nam 2001, mfli quan hfl van khdng thoat khdi dgc trung nay. Thue tfl, ca hai phia luon su dung lan nhau cho nhung muc tiflu hep mang tinh cMfln thugt ciia rieng minh. Nhin lai lich sii, kfl tir khi Pakistan gianh dpc lap vao nam 1947, Washington da coi dit nudc nay nhu mpt phupng tifln dfl cham dirt dil la chu nghia cpng san hay chii nghia khimg bo. Mac du ludn phan nan rang My khflng phai la mflt ngudi bgn thue su, frfln thue tfl Pgkistan ciing dg lpi dung My. Nhung nha lanh dgp Pgskistan sit dung tifln cug My de phuc vu chp muc dich ciig hp. Tren tat ca, quan dpi Pakistan xem mfli quan he vdi My nhirmpt phuang tifln dfl cgn bgng chflng IgiAn Dp. Mpt khi su ung hp niiy khpng cdn, Islgmabad ciing nhanh chdng tim giai phap khac: gin giii vdi Trung Qudc, tim kiflm mfltchuong frinh vii khi hgt nhan dpc Igp, va tham chi dung dupng chp nhiing phan tti nfli dgy vg khimg bd chflng An Dp. Mdi quan he dua frfln nhiing cd sd thiflu viing chac, va dac Met lit su thiflu long tin lan nhau, vi vay ludn ggp khdng it frac frd.
Trong tuong lgi ggn, qugn he vdi Pgkistan van se la mpt frong nhiing true quan he chinh cua Washington tai Nam
CHAU MY NGAY NAY
A. Mgc dil Vila frai qua mpt cupc khiing hcang frim frpng frpng nam 2011-2012, mfli quan he nay da duac cai thien dan va dang di vac fln dinh. My se van phai tap frung vao Pakistan vi nhiing quan tam ciia My gan vdi chu ngMa khimg bfl, ngity nap chit nghia khimg bfl chua M tieu diet, va Pakistan van la manh dat bat on cho khiing bd tni an, thi nhirng lifln quan va hpp tac giSa My va Pakistan van ton tgi. Mgc du vgy, ciing khflng thfl phu nhan rang mfli quan he nay da giam sut nhieu so vdi diu nhung nam 2000. Giam sut d day cUnh la mite dp ky vpng lin nhau khflng cdn ldn nhu trudc. Giang nhu phan tich cua Darnel S. Markey^' sau gan 1.5 thap ky ke tii khi noi lgi quan he, chflng khiing bd chii khong phai bit cir van de nao khac van gin ket My va Pakistan fren mdt con dudng. Tuy nMfln, mfli quan he nay da khdng cdn man nflng nhu giai doan ban dau Vupt qua rit nhieu man thuin, cang tiling, khung hoang, hai nudc nhan thiy ring khong flie frong dpi qua nMflu vap nhau, va bupc phai hg thip nhirng ky vpng ciig minh dfli vdi mfli quan hfl nay. Rit nhiflu nhiing kich ban cd thfl den vdi quan he My - Pakistan, hiy nhien, ttong toong lai gin, hai quflc gia van se duy fri frgng tiigi da duac dinh Unh Men nay, dd la hpc each bang long va chip nhan nhau •
Chu thich:
IDimg hoat dong Al-Qaeda o bien gioi Afghamstan - Pakistan va Vk thiic ik ca cac hinh thiic h§ tro hau cjn cho Bin Laden; 2)
Cap cho My quyJn bay qua va ha canh tren lanh tho cua Pakistan d6i ven cac nhu ciu quan sir va tinh bao; 3) Cung cap cho Hoa Ky nhung thong tin tinh bao ciia Pakistan; 4) Cho phep cac hoat dong tinh bao quan su va cac hoat dong khac ciia My va cac dong mmh tai lanh tho Pakistan tien hanh cac hoat dong chong lai al-Qaeda, 5) Tiep tuc cong khai len an nhirng hanh dong khung bo; 6) Chan tat ca cac nguon cung cap nhien heu cho Taliban va ngan chan cac nha hoat dpng toi Afghanistan;
7) Neu TaUban tiep tuc bao ve Bin Laden va al-Qaeda, cham dirt hin quan he vdi chinh quyen cua ho Xem tai The 9/11 Commission Report, New York, W. W, Norton and Co, tr.331.
2 Ahmed Rashid, «Post-TaIiban order is a source of concern for Pakistani!
(eurasianet org. 25 octobre 2001) 3 Christophe Jaffrelot. "La relation Pakistan -
Etats-Unis un patron et son chent au bord de la rupture?" Les Etudes du CERl - n° 187 - 9/2012. trl5
4 D. Rode, C Gall, E. Schmitt et D. E. Sanger,
«US otFicials see waste in bilUons sent to Pakistani), The New York Times, 24/12/2007, 5.G Miller. «CIA pays for support in Pakistan)*
The Los Angeles Times, 15/11/2010 6,T. Ah. The Duel Pakistan on the Flight Pdth
of American Power, Londres, Pocket Books, 2008. tr 209. Tanq Ah cung trich dan cau noi da duoc chimg thue cua Musharraf vm Chavez; "Ngai qua thu dich doi vdi nguoi My Hay lam nhu toi. Chap nhan diiu ho noi va lam theo each ngai hieu" (K A, Kronstadt.
Pakistan US Relations. Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, Washington, CRS. 2009, trang 147).
7 H Abbas. «An assessment of Pakistan's peace agreements with militants in Wazinstan (2004- 2008)), in D. Gartenstein-Ross et CD May (eds). The Afghanistan-Pabslan Theater Militant Islam, Security and Stability, Washington DC, FDD Press, 2010. tr.l2
CHAU MY NGAY NAY S 6 02-2016 27
S.K A. Kronstadt, Pakistan-US Relations Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, Washmgton, CRS, 2009, tr 55, 9.Voi dieu kien Ca quan Nang luong Nguyen
tu Quoc te (IAEA) c6 quyen tiep can cho den 201465% cac co so hat nhan cua nuoc nay, de xac minh rang cong nghe kep khong duoc su dung cho muc dich quan su.
lO.K. A. Kronstadt, Patstan-US Relations.
Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, Washington, CRS, 2009, tr.78 11 «Obama's address to the nation on the way
forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan, December 2009», Council on Foreign Relations :http //www cfr org/pakistan/
obamas-address-nation-way-forward- afghanistan-pakistan-december-2009/
p20871,
12.K, A. Kronstadt, Pahstan-US Relations.
Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, Washington, CRS, 2009, tr 85 13 Xem tai: httpV/www.ibitians com/2009/10/
03/full-text-kerrylugar-bilI-details-condition s/hoachttp://pakistaniat,com/2009/10/07/fijll -text-kerry-lugar-biU/
l4.«Pakistani public opmion ever more critical of US», 27/6/2012: http://www.pewglobal.
org/2012/06/27/pakistani-public;-opmion- ever-more-critical-of-u-s/
15 P Cruickshank, The Militant Pipeline, Washington, The New American Foundation, 2/2010.
16 8. B Epstein, «Pakistan- US Foreign assistance)). Congressional Research Service, 10/4/2010, p. 2
17.J. Perlez, «CIA Officer is unmasked as Pakistan vents anger». International Herald Tribune, miSll^n.
18.S B. Epstein et K, A, Kronstadt, « Pakistan : US Foreign assistance", p 3
19.S. B Epstein etK A Kronstadt, « Pakistan US Foreign assistance*), p 2
20 Luc luong Ho trg An ninh Quoc te Intemational Security Assistance Force.
21.Xem "DCC go-ahead for resetting Pak-US ties",Z)flWM, 18/4/2012, t r i .
22 Pakistan da dong y hiiy bo du dmh thu tien thong quan 5000 USD/ moi xe tai cua NATO, ma quay tra lai muc 250 USD Nhu vay. My co the cit giam duac chi phi len den 100 trieu USD b6 sung moi thang ke tir thang 11/2011 vi phai muon duang hang khong tiep can Afghanistan
23,Chuyen gia ve chinh sach dSi ngoai ciia My a Nam A, thuoc Hoi dong quan he doi ngoai Hoa Ky - CRS