;rci1^uAN^f^

DAU T U & TANG TRUO'NG KINH T E

EciJCMC[»eaietBit

^I'w

I

t i l

• •

i)"

£^r ' & S ^ ^ - /

-^1 ;rci1^uAN^f^

PGS. TS. TRAN HOANG NGAN

Boi canh kinh te'hien tai

Mpi vide bdt dau vdo cudi ndm 2006 khi thi trUdng bat ddng sdn My bdt ddu ddng bdng vd sut gidm gid tri rdt ldn, ddn den cudc khiing hodng tin dung nhd d tai My; np xdu, np khd ddi tang nhanh vd vd np. Thdng 6/2007: Hai quy ddu cP eua Bear Stearns (NH dau IU ldn IhU 5 cua My) phd sdn sau khi danh cUpc vao cae chUng khodii dupe dam bdo bdng edc khodii cho vay bd't ddng sdn (BDS) dudi chudn d My vd thang 08/2007 Cdng ty the chdp nhd My (American Home Morgage) ldm don xin pha sdn.

TU dd, nen kinh te' hang diiu the' gidi (My) roi vao nhUng khd khdn nhdt dinh vdi sU phd sdn vd sap nhiip eiia hang loat edc dinh che tai ehfnh nhU: Tiip doan dau tU tdi chfnh My - Merrill Lynch da ve tay Bank of America, Bear Stearns thua Id 3,2 ty USD vd dupe bdn eho J P Morgan Chase vdi gid 2 USD/ed phie'u (trudc dd 1 ndm gid 170 USD/cd phie'u). Lehman Brothers dd tuyen bd phd sdn sau nhUng nd luc bdt thdnh ve viec tim kiem ddi tdc VLfc dd ngdn hdng, Fannie Mae, Fredie Mae, Golgman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, AIG v.v..

ciing trdng chd vdo khodn tfn dung khan cdp cua Cue du trU lien bang (FED). Tii't ed nguyen nhdn dd vd ndy du'pc quy ve "Bd gid" Alan Greenspan - eUu Chu lich FED trong 18 ndm lien (1987 - 2006), trong dd nguyen nhdn chu yeu Id do nd'i long chfnh sdch tien te thieu kiem sodt, bung nd till dung lieu dung, tfn dung bdt ddng sdn, tfn

dung dudi ehuian tiang nhanh, tdn siing tlai tru'dng tu do vd td chUc, sung bai thi trudng chu'ng khodn- tlai tru'dng tdi ehinh phdi sinh, vai trd gidm sdt he thdng tdi ehfnh qud kem v.v..Tfnh den eudi thdng 8/2009 bdo cdo Ude tfnh eua FDIC (Bdo hiem lien gdi Lien bang My) ed 416 ngdn hdng thude "'danh saeh den" mdi nha't. qudn ly gid tri tdi sdn giin 300 ty USD. TU diiu ndm 2009 den 5/9/2009, dd ed 89 ngdn hang cua My bi giai the.

Cudc khiing hoang tdi ehinh biit ngudn tU My da lan nhanh vd dnh laUPng sau rdng tren loan the gidi, trd thdnh cudc khung hoang tdi chinh ldn nhdt ke tU trudc den nay. TrUOe linh hinh khung hodng ldi ehinh lan rdng vd kinh te nhieu nudc roi vdo suy thoai, ehinh phii vd ngau hdng trung uong ede wude dd phai khan trUOiig ihuc hien nhieu bien phdp don phuong- song (ihuong- da phuo'ng de ean thiep. gidi cUu thi trUdng uhu lien tue gidm ldi suat eP ban, boiii tien viio hi}

thdng tdi ehfnh. gidm ty le du tru bat bude, hoan ddi lien te, mua liii edc khodn np xdu vd mua liai ed phdn cua mdt so ngdn hdng, tdng bao hiem tien gdi, tung ra cae gdi kieh thicli kinh te. mien giam thue, tdng trp cdj) that nghiep vd nhitm giai phap cdp bach khdc. NhUng cho den nay tinla hinh kinh te the gid'i van edn nhidu khd khan nhat dinh \'ii chinh phu ciic lufij'c van dang tich cifc tlieo dcii dien bien kinh le lrong vd ngoai nifcic dd cu giai phdp ling eUu kip thdi.

Phat trien kinh te - Thang MUdi Mpt nam 2009

41

DAU T U & TANG TRUO'NG KINH T E

Bang 1: Kinh te My van dang suy thoai trong nam 2009

U n i t e d S t a l e s G D P Growvth R a t e

2 7-^ Z5V.

J a n / 0 6 JullOe Ja-nX>7 J u H 0 7 J a n / 0 6 Jul«J8 J a n « 9 J u i / 0 9

Khung hodng thi tru'dng tai ehinh My, keo theo khung hodng tdi ehfnh todn ciiu vd suy thodi kinh te dien ra trdn nhieu qude gia. Kinh le todn cau dang tdng trudng vdi tdc dp eao 5,l''i GDP ndm 2007 nhung ndm 2008 chi tdng P mUc 3,Kr. Ridng ndm 2009 dua theo linh hinh "sUe khoe" eua bd'n ddu tau My, chdu Au, Nhat va Trung Qude, nen kinh te the gidi difpc clu bdo tdng trUdng -1.3^'i, ndm 2010 kinh le the gidi se phue hdi va tdng trudng +2.9'^f. Ddi vdi nen kinh te My, cae ehuyen gia phdn tich the gidi nhdn dinh nen kinh te nUdc ndy hien vdn trong tinh t r a n g suy thodi khi tang truong GDP quy 1/2009 Id -1,9';'(, quy 11/2009 -3,9'~f, ty le that nghiep da tang len tU 9,4 ' i len 9,7';r vao thdng 08/2009. Chdu Au thi khd quan hon khi quy I suy thodi -4,9'r thi quy II cdn -4,6'r;

nhUiig sd lieu lieh eifc bd't ngd eua kinh te' khu vUe dang day len hy vpng suy thodi kinh te' loan cau se sdm ke't thuc bdi hai nen kinh te ldn nhdt khu vifc la Phdp vd DUc deu dd ldng tru'dng trd liai trong quy II nam nay vdi tdng trUdng + 0,3''f so vdi vdi tdc dp dm 3,5'/( cua quy I.

Theo bdo cdo mdi nha't do Vdn phdng ndi cac Nhdt cdng bo ngdy 17/8/09 GDP quy II ciia Nhat da ldng 3,7''< so viji eung ky n a m ngodi, sau khi sut giam td'i ll,7'/( trong quy I. Ne'u so vdi quy I, GDP quy II ciia Nhdt ldng trudng 0,9';r, ddng lUc ehu yeu la do hoat ddng xudt khau tdng cao vd chi tieu kfeh thfch tU chfnh phu. Rieng Trung Qud'c, kinh te dd tdng trUPiig 12-13''i trong nhieu ndm lien, mde du nen kinh te' the gidi suy thoai hpn hai ndm gdn day nhuiig GDP qudc gia ndy vdn tdng trudng khd manh (nam 2008 tang ho'n 10%, quy 1/2009 tang 6,1% vd quy II t a n g 7,9%).

Nguyen n h a n diit dUp'c cung het sUe don gidn:

Trung Qud'e Id nUde cd tinh thian dan tdc the hien cao trong hoiat ddng san xud't vd thuong mai, dong thdi hp eung biet tan dung the' miaiih ve ngudn nhdn cdng vd nguyen lieu tU d i e trong viee lap trung khai thdc hang hda gia re, qua dd tranh thii ndng eao lhi phan the gidi trong thd'i ky khung hoang. Nhu viiy kinh te the gidi tuy cdn nhUng khd khdn nha't dinh do ty le that nghiep van cao a nhieu nudc (My, chau Au, Nhat...), nhung ke't thuc quy 11/2009 dd cho thdy nhUng tia hy vpng.

Bang 2: Kinh te Phap dang co da'u hi?u phuc hoi trong quy II nam 2009

France GOP Growtn Rate 1 6

1 0 5 O -0 5 -

-1

— A r r u a i GDP,3ro,MTn A3j;,st«C! try ir-ftat.*

1 V.

- 1 B-

0 7 %

°-5 •• 0 5 •-; 0 ^ y_ 0 7 %

0 % I 0 3 % 0.5 V.

0 3 %

1-0.2%

-OS %

I

Phat trien kinh te - Thang Mudi Mpt nam 2009

DAU T U & TANG TRUDNG KINH T E

mh.

the' gidi d a n g d n c h d n dupc d a suy t h o d i k i n h t e luc jahuc hdi vdi tde dp t d n g cao ho'n so vdi t h d n g t r o n g 2 n a m q u a va s e t a n g t r u d n g l r o n g n a m IrUdc: S a n x u a t cdiig n g h i e p l a n g 10,6% so vdi 2010 vdi mUc 2,9%. ciing ky n a m trUdc. Mpt s d dia phuo'ng cd gia tri sdn xuat cdng n g h i e p ldn, dial mife t a n g cao nhu':

Bang 3: Kinh te Trung Quoc v l n dang suy giam so vdi nam 2008

Chifi« GDP Growth Rate An„ijal 3D^ Gfirpulh A2ja5tea by Infiatyjf.

1 4 -

1 2 -

1 0 -

8 -

J&r 1

J06

1 4 % 11.5%

Jul/DS

10 6 V. 104.^_

Jan/07

1 3 % 1 2 6 %

Jul/07

1 1 , 5 % 11 2 v.

jsnyoa

1 0 , 6 %

^ H ^ B 9

Jul«>8

1 7 9 % 1 e s v. ^ B

Jan*09 Jul/09 soutc* Nw<o'--»i Btireau of Siai^ascs

Chinh sach tien te VN trifdc va sau khung hoang Nhin llii t i n h h i n h k i n h t e VN nhu'ng n a m qua, tif n d m 2000 de'n n d m 2 0 0 8 , G D P d a t mUc t d n g trUPng binh qudn > 7,5%. R i d n g n a m 2 0 0 8 , t h e o sd lieu ciia T o n g cue T h d n g kd, tde dp t d n g t r u d n g kinh te G D P cua VN l a 6 , 2 3 % , t r o n g k h i chi s d CPI, lain p h a t la +19,9%, xud't k h a u ed n a m dial kim ngach 62,7 ty U S D , n h i i p k h d u Id 80,70 ty USD, n h a p sieu 18 ty U S D cho tha'y n h U n g e a n h bao ve t i n h h i n h k i n h te'. K i n h te' t h e gidi didn bie'n xdu t r o n g n a m 2 0 0 8 vd quy I n d m 2 0 0 9 , vi vay Chfnh phu c a n p h d i b i n h t u i l i s d n g sud't de difa r a edc chinh sdch lliich h p p vd l i n h hoiat vdi linh h i n h k i n h t e - t i e n l e t r o n g vd ngodi nUdc.

Ndm 2009 C h i n h p h u d a dieu e h m h m u c lieu GDP Id 6,5% xud'ng 5"r va t r i d n khai ngay gdi kieh cau dpt 1 (143.000 t y VND) eho n e u k i n h te n h d m de ngan chdn dd suy g i d m k i n h t e , d n d i n h k i n h te vi md va d a m b a o a n s i n h xa

hiji. Chinh s a e h t i d n l e vd t d i Bang 4:

khda da cd tdc d u n g hd t r p td't ddi vdi n e n k i n h t e VN, cu t h e la gdi kfeh cau t h d n g q u a c h i n h sach ho t r p lai sud't (17.000 t y VND) d d n g vai t r d t r u n g t a i n lrong viee giup t i n d u n g t d n g trifdng, duy t r i s a n xua't k i n h doanh va kieh eau t i e u d u n g - dau t u c h o ndn k i n h te'(^^) . Tfnh dtMi t h a n g 8/2009, l i n h h m h kinh te xd h(ai dill dupe nhUng ket qua tieh cUe, k i n h t e l i e p

Dd N i i n g t d n g 17,6%, H a N d i l a n g 16.8%, T h a n h H d a t a n g 15,4%, T P . H C M t d n g 1 1 , 4 ' i . T d n g mUc b d n le h d n g hda, d o a n h lhu dicli vu tii^u (limg 8 t h a n g qua t a n g 18,4'^f, xuat k h a u dill 3 7 . 3 ty U S D , n h d p sieu 5,1 ty USD b d n g 13,7'^ k i m ngiich xud't k h d u . So vdi t h a n g 7/2009, clii sd gia l i e u d u n g t h a n g 8 t d n g 0,24%. So vdi t h a n g 12/2008, chi sd gia lieu dimg t h d n g 8 t d n g 3,47%. T d n g vdn diiu tU l o a n xa hdi t i e p tue l d n g , dial k h o a n g 42,5% G D P , l r o n g dd vd'n F D I IhUc h i e n 8 t h d n g d a u n a m d a t 6,5 ty U S D . K e t qua t d n g trUdng G D P quy 11/2009 t d n g td'c l e n mUe 4,5'i^ IU niUe 3,1'f cua quy 1/2009.

Tfnh chung 6 t h d n g d:iu n a m 2009, tdng s a n p h a m t r o n g n u d e l d n g 3.9% so vdi (> t h a n g diau n d m 2 0 0 8 . T d n g t r u d n g G D P quy 111/2009 d a t inUc 5,76'"^, cao ho'n r a t n h i e u con s d 4.5'/( diat dUpc t r o n g quy 11/2009, tdc dp t d n g t r u d n g 9 l h d n g d a u n d m 2009 d a t 4,56''i va iihu vdy m u c tieu t a u g G D P (da dieu e h i n h g i d m ) k h o d n g 5''/ t r o n g n d i n 2009 se d a t dupe. Didu n d y eho ihd'y k i n h le' VN d a n g t r e n dd p h u c h o i vd n e u cd ehinh sdch thfch h p p n a m 2 0 1 0 G U P VN cd t h e t a n g trUchig tU 6.5%-7%.

Kinh te Vi?t Nam suy giam trong nam 2008

T A U B l i ^ r O T i B G I > P I t u u c u b i n i f c ixAua < | u x <*^(»>

UJJJL t

20a* 2 0 0 ? : M O * -^OO7 N g v » Xowig; < : t l t o f t ^ K ^

Phat trien kinh te - T h a n g Mudi Mpt nam 2009

4

%

ECOICMC[&BCPI«nRBPV

DAU T U & TANG TRUONG KINH T E

4.7 6.8 -7.0

6.5 5.0 -9.7

6.5 8.5 - 9 . 0 Bang 5: DU bao cua ADB ve tinh hinh vT md cua VN

3.10.1 S e l e c t e d e c o n o m i c indicators (%)

20O9 2O10 ADO Update ADO Update 2009 2009 GDP g r o w t h 4.5

Inflation 4.0 Current acct. bai. -11.5

(share of GDP) Source: Staff estimates.

Chmh saeh lien le trUdc vd sau khung hoang dupc dieu hdnh khdng theo liUdiig ndi long hay thiit chat md dieu hdnh linh boat theo tin hieu thi IrUdng. Trong ndm 2008 de kiem soat lam phat cao, NHNN VN lien tuc dieu chinh ldng ldi sud't CO ban, tang dU trU bdt bu(DC, kiem soat du lip tin dung nhUng khi kinh te the gidi ro'i vao suy thodi quy III, IV/2008, kinh le' VN suy giam vd gidm phdt d quy IV/2008 thi NHNN eung kip thdi dieu chinh linh hoat eac cdng cu eua chfnh sdch tien te'theo hudng gidm ldi sua'l co bdn, giam ty le du trif bdt buiae, ddng thdi hd lrp vd'n ngiin han eho cdc td chUc tfn dung gap khd khan ve thanh khodn thdng qua edng cu ldi cap vd'n, nghiep vu thi Irudng md. Cu the trong ndm 2008, NHNN dd dieu ehinh ldi sua'l ea bdn tdi 7 Iiln, lrong dd ed 3 llin dieu ehinh tdng (tU mi'fc 8,25'i/nani len 8,75%, 12% vd 14%/nain) nhdm kiem soat chat che td'c dp tdng du np tin dung: 4 lan dieu chfnh gidm (lU 14%/nani xud'ng 13%, 12%, 11% vd 8,5%/nam) nhdm ndi ldng tUng budc chinh sdch lien le, gdp phdn ngdn ehdn dd suy gidm kinh to'. Vdi su dieu chinh nay, mUc an dinh ldi sudt cho vay td'i da cua cae td chUe tin dung (TCTD) dd'i vdi khdch hdng dd giam tU inUc 21'%ndm xud'ng 12,75^r/ndm vd du np lin dung nam 2008 da dupc kiem sodt vdi mUc tang +22%, trong khi ndm 2007 tang +54% ).

Budc sang ndm 2009. NHNNVN tiep tuc dieu hdnh linh hoat cdc cdng eu chfnh sdch tien te nhdm giam ldi suat cho vay, hd trp thanh khodn, tao dieu kien eho edc td chUe tfn dung md rpng tin dung: Dieu chinh gidm ldi sud't ca ban bdng VND tU 8,5% xudng eon 7%/nam (ldi sud't eho vay tdi da Id 10.5%); lai sud't tai cap vdn tU 9,5% xud'ng 7%/nam; ldi sudt ldi ehiel khd'u lU 7.5% xud'ng 5%/nani; dieu ehmh giam ty le du IrU bdt budc ddi vdi ticm gUi VND khdng ky ban va cd ky ban dudi 12 lhdng tu 6% xud'ng 3'V; dd'i vdi lidn gUi VND ed kv hian tU 12 thang trd len tu 2% xud'ng Vi.

Chfnh sdch tien te nude ta hien nay la chinh sdch tien te linh boat cd kiem soat theo nhUng muc tieu vi md: ngdn ehdn suy giam kinh t,e'(GDP tdng + 5%), tao cdng dn viec lam, dn dinh lien le- kiem sodt lam phat <10%', dam bdo au todn he thdng ngan hang, eai thien cdn can thanh todn qude te.

So lieu thdng 9/2009 cho tha'y, chi sd gia lieu dung (CPI) cd 9 thdng chi t a n g nhe 4,11% so vdi 12/2008 va tang 2,42% so vdi t h a n g 9/2008. Dif kie'n CPI nam 2009 cua VN khoang 7-8%. Vi vay, viec NHNNVN tie'p tuc giU nguyen Iai sua't co ban hien nay la 7% trong thdi gian de'n he't ndm 2009 la hpp ly. Tiep tuc giU nguyen Idi sudt tai cap vdh p muc 7''r/ndiii, ldi sudt tdi chiet khdu d iiuic 5%/iidm; dieu hanh linh boat nghiep vu lhi trudng md de dieu liet vdn khd dung cua edc to chUe tin dung Id viee can liep tuc thUe hidn trong mot thdi gian nUa. Gan ddy cd mdt so quan diem cho rdng, Chfnh phu dang ndi long chinh sdch lien le va dieu nay se keo liim phat tang eao, ndn kinh le cd the lrd lai kich ban hoi t h d n g 3/2008. Quan diem ndy eung ddng nghia neu ra van d§ rui ro trong chuong trinh hd trp ldi sud't dang hoat ddng klid hieu qua, kha ndng cac khoan tdi trp vd'n, dau tu cd the dd dUpc rdt n h a m clad vd eudi cung dan den cdc khoaii vay khdng hieu qua, mdt sd ddi tupng dd vay tien de ddu tU vdo chUng khoan va bdt dpng sail. Tuy nhien, dau hieu "tin vui" kinh te' VN nhUng thdng gitn day cho tha'y viec thiit ehdt tidn le Id khdng nen, Chinh phu can dieu hdnh linh hoat theo nhip dap cua nen kinh te. Khi dieu hdnh chinh sach lai sud't thi NHTW cung can quan tdm de'n cdc muc tieu vi md, can quan lain den ye'u td' lam phat (CPI), nlaUng nen dieu hdnh theo lam phdt co bdn (core inflation). Bdi ye'u td liam phdt d VN phu thupc rd'i nbieu ye'u to ben ngoai ldn ben trong, diic biet ciin quan tam de'n yeu td ben ngodi (bie'n diang gid cd the gidi) vi do md kinh le VN la r a t ldn 170% GDP. Tiai VN, gid ed luPng tbuc thUe pham khd quan trpng vd chiem trpng ye'u trong CPI, diac biel Id gid gao vd gia dau thd neu thay ddi se a n h hudng ldn de'n CPl- 1am phdt d nudc la.

Tdng phuong lien lliimh todn den lhdng 9/2009 Udc tdng 21-22% so vdi 31/12/2008; long sd dU tien gUi cua khdch hdng tai edc to chue tin dung den lhdng 9/2009 Udc tdng 22-23''( so vdi 31/12/2009, tin dung ddi vdi niMi kinh le den thdng 8/2009 Uae t a n g 28-29% so vdi ddu nam.

Phat trien kinh te - T h a n g Mu'di Mdt n a m 2009

UAU 1 u & IANG TRUO'NG K I N H T E

Nhu vdy, du np tin dung eudi ndm 2009 se d mUc tdng khodng 30%-32% la hpp ly (nam 2008 du np tfn dung tdng 22%). Tuy nhieu NHTW cian tdng cUdiag thanh tra gidm sat de ddm bdo an todn he lhdng vd han che' rui ro tin dung. Cdc NHTM ben canh viec gia tang thi phdn, tdng du np cho vay cung Ung vd'n cho sdn xud't kinh doanh, xua't khdu, tieu diing cdn ddm bdo chat lupng tin dung, tang cUdng kiem tra IrUdc, troiig va sau khi cho vay.

Ve chinh sdch ty gid hd'i dodi: Nhdm tiao sU chu ddng va Iinh boat cho cac td claUe tin dung trong an dinh ty gia kinh doanh trUdc dien bien phUc tap cua lhi tru'dng ngoiai te trong nam 2008 va giam bdt sU chenh Icjeh ty gid cua hai thi tru'dng ehinh thUc vd clap den, NHNN da 3 Ian ndi rpng bien dp an dinh ty gid mua bdn USD cua cdc td chuc tfn dung tU niUc ±0,75'"^c Ien ±1%, ±2% vd

±3% so vdi ty gia binh quan lien ngdn hdng. TrUdc tinh trang nhdp sieu trong nhUng thdng ddu nam 2008 tang cao lam dnh hudng de'n cdn can dd'i v!

md, ngdy 10/6/2008, NHNN dd dieu chinh tdng 2% ty gid binh quan lien ngdn hdng (tU 16.139VND/IJSD len 16.461VND/USD) vd ngay 25/12/2008, NHNN dd didu ehinh tdng ty gid binh quan lien ngdn hang them 3% (len iiiUc 16.989VND/USD). Bien phdp ndy dd tiao ra mat bdng ty gid mdi cho ndm 2009, gdp phdn hd lrp xudt khdu, ban che' nhdp sieu vd cdi thien cdn can thanh loan qudc te.

Ngdy 23/03/2009, Thd'ng ddc Ngan hdng Nhd nifdc VN da ky ban h a n h Quye't dinh sd 622/QD- NHNN, theo dd bien dp ty gid giUa VND vdi USD difpc dieu chmh tdng tU mUc +/-3% len mu'c +/-5''(-, cd hieu life ke tU ngay 24/3/2009. Quye't dinh ndy se giup cho ty gid linh hoat ho'n, bdm sat eung cdu ngoai te tren thi trudng, diang thdi tao dieu kien

cho cac ngan hdng vd doimh nghi(§p ehu ddug hip phuo'ng dn sdn xud't kinh doanh troug nam 2009.

Ddng thdi NHNN can thiep ban ngoiai te de dap Ung nhu cdu nhdp khdu cae mat hdng thiet yeu va dn dinh ty gid; thuc hien cae bien phdp ban che gam giU vd chdng dau co ngoiii te.

Ap luc ly gid ngoai te (chu ye'u la L^SD) hien nay va sii}) tdi khdng phdi id van de ddi vdi cdc doanh nghiep va cae NHTM nda. Troug thang 08/2009 NHNN vii'a thdng bdo. NHNN dang mua rdng ngoiai te vd nhd diiu tU nUdc ngoai eung dang ban ngoai te kha nhieu. Xel ve iiiiit vi md. can can thuong miai VN hien nay i9 thdng) nhiip sic^u 6,5 ty USD (so vdi con so gan 18 ty nam 2008).

FDI dd giai ngdn 7,2 ty USD/12.5 ty USD dang ky va ngudn vdn ODA dang cd tiem nang giai ngan rat ldn khodng 1.7 ty USL)/3,2 ty USD cam ke't. Vl vdy khdng cd ly do gi de NHNNVN phd gia nianh ddug VN va nen u'u tien on dinh ty gia gdp phdn du dinh kinh le vi mo Id can thiet hien nay. Xuat khdu giam la do tdng eiiu the gidi gidm vd gid the gidi giam, chU khdng phdi do ty gid khdng hpp ly. Tuy nhien ty gid cung cdn dic?u hanh linh hpat ban vd NHNN\'N' can can thiep mianh me han de giam bdt chenh lech giUa thi trudng chfnh thUe va thi tru'dng chp den.

Cho den nay, nhin chung kinh te VN dd vUot qua "ddy" khd khdn xet theo mat biing loan can.

Nhin ra the gidi, ne'u hien nay cd 94/118 iiudc khdug tang trudng hodc tang trudng am, VN nam trong 22 nUd'e cd tdng trUdng duang la van de can nhin n h a n tfch eUc ddi vdi ede ehinh saeh eua Chinh phu da ban hdnh.

Bang 6: Kinh te Thai Lan v l n dang suy thoai trong nam 2009

Ttiraiand GDP Growth Rate

— A r , r t i i SOP GtOfMh Aa,ijs!£3 cv ' r f a i c m

8n G4V,

JarVOe Jul«)6 Jan/D7 Jul/07 Jan/08 Jul/08 Janra ^{JLI.'C^}

Phat trien kinh te - T h a n g Mu'di Mdt nam 2009

1

mm DAU T U & TANG T R U I N G KINH '1"E

1 ^ ^; "BTi T S ^ T W ^ ^

Bang 7: Kinh te Singapore van dang suy thoai trong nam 2009

SinoapofKGDP Growth Rate

I B - I O - 5 - 0 - - S - i n -

10 4 %

• • _m

^{7 4. %}

• •

^{7 %}

i H H H ^ M | 2 . 5 %

[ • • • • • • B

^{0 %}

_HI

-4.2% j

•

^3.5%

Jan«36 Jul/06 Jan/CT Jul/07 Jan/Oe Jul«>8 Jani(09 J u W > 9

Tuy nhien, ben canh viec LhUc hicn ehinh saeh tidn te Iinh hoat theo tin hieu thi trifdng vd muc tieu kinh te' vi md trong thdi gian tdi. ddng thdi NHNNVN Ciin luu y them:

• Day manh edng tde thdng tin, tuyen truyen.

Tiep tuc cdi cdch thu tue hdnh ehfnh ve hoiat dpng ngdn hang de tao thudn lpi eho quan he tin dung vd dich vu ngan hang giUa TCTD vd khdch hdng, gdp phdn ndng eao hieu qua quan ly, didu hdnh cua NHNN. Ldm td't cdng tdc thdng tin truyen thdng cho doanh nghiep vd ngifdi ddn. Id chUe qudc te de hieu dung ve tinh hinh boat ddng ngdn hdng, ban che tde ddng xdu do yeu to tdm ly la nhiem vu thudng xuyen va quan trpng.

• Tie'p tuc trien khai tfch cUc chinh sdch hd tro ldi sud't theo cdc Quye't dinh eua Thu tudng Chinh phu (131/QD-TTg ngdy 23/01/2009, 333/QD-TTg ngdy 10/3/2009, 443/QD-TTg ngdy 04/4/2009, 497/QD-TTg ngdy 17/4/2009) vd cdc vdn bdn hUdng ddn eua NHNN. Tdng eUdng thanh tra, gidm sdt, kiem tra cac khodn eho vay hd trp ldi sud't de dam bao thUe hien dung muc tieu ho trp dd quy dinh.

• Tang eudng cdng tdc t h a n h tra, kidm tra, gidm sdt, ddm bdo an todn he thd'ng ngdn hang trudc su phdt trien nhanh r a t nhanh ve quy md vd mang ludi sau rdng cua he thd'ng. He thd'ng ede to ehUe tfn dung d nUdc ta hien nay: 5 NHTM nhd nudc vdi 1.203 chi nhanh cap 1 vd Sd giao dich, 39 NHTMCP vdl 898 chi nhanh cap 1 vd So giao djch, 40 chi nhanh ngdn hdng nude ngodi, 5 ngdn hdng 100% vd'n node ngodi, 5 ngan hang lien doanh, 17 edng ty tdi chinh, 13 cdng ty cho thue

tdi chfnh, 1 quy tfn dung nhan ddn trung UPng va gan 1.000 quy tfn dung n h a n dan eo sd. Dd eung la chUe ndng vd nhiem vu eua NHTW, can phai dupe thuc hien thudng xuyen vd xU ly nghiem minb cdc sai pham tu ke't qua thanh tra giam sat.

Day Id bdi hpc quan trpng md he thdng tdi chinh cae iiUdc phdt trien bi khung hodng dd long ket.

Trong mdt tdi lieu cdng bo ngdy 06/3/2009, IMF da eho r a n g nguydn n h a n chfnh gay ra khiing hodng khdng gl khdc chinh Id tinh trang budng long quan ly he thd'ng t a i chinh, cung vdi viec khdng tudn tlau ky ludt tlai trUdng*

* Theo bdo cdo ciia N H N N V N thi dU np cho vay ho trg lai suat (HTLS) bang d o n g VN d e n ngay 24/9/2009 la 404,256,10 ty ddng. DU np du'pc ho trO phan theo ddi tupng khach hang vay v d n : Doanh nghiep nha nudc 62.181,79 t"/ ddng: doanh nghiep ngoai nha nu'dc (cdng ty trach nhiem hOu han, cdng ty c d phan, doanh nghiep tu nhan, doanh nghiep cd vdn dau tU nu'dc ngoai ...) 273.161,70 ty ddng; ho san xua't la 68,912,60 t'y dong,

TAI LIEU THAM KHAO

- Bao cao ciia N H N N V N 2008, thang 06/2009 - Bao cao ciia Quy Tien te Qudc te IMF - Bao cao hang thdng ciia T o n g cue Thdng ke

- w/ww.chinhphu.vn, w w w . s b v . g o v . v n , www.vnecon- omy.vn, www.bloomberg.com, www.gso.gov.vn.

P h a t t r i e n k i n h te - T h a n g MUdi M d t n a m 2 0 0 9