rren cd sd tong hdp cdc nghien cdu ve rui ro phd sdn trong

Da bao rui ro pha san

trong cac doanh nghiep xay dang niem yet tren thj tradng chCrng khoan

Viet Nam

P H A N T H I T H U HA

r

ren cd sd tong hdp cdc nghien cdu ve rui ro phd sdn trong doanh nghiep xdy ddng, tdc gid liXa chgn cong cu chi so' Z de tien hdnh thu thdp so' lieu thU cdp tii cdc bdo cdo tdi chinh da qua kiim todn trong ndm 2016 cua cdc doanh nghiep xdy diing niem yit tren sdn giao dich chiing khodn thdnh pho'Ho Chi Minh de tinh todn hi s6'Z diiu chinh theo mo hinh chi so'Z cua Altman, tit do diia ra mgt s6' kien nghi de xuat cho cdc doanh nghiep nhdm trdnh khoi khd ndng xdy ra rui ro phd sdn.

Tfl khoa: chi s6'Z", dit bdo, doanh nghiip xdy diing, rdi ro phd sdn.

1. Gidi t h i d u

Theo sd" lidu tfl Tdng cue Tho'ng ke, Bp Ke hoach va d i u tfl bao cao t i n h h i n h b o a t ddng doanh nghiep t r o n g t h a n g 1 n a m 2018, tdng so' doanh nghidp da h o a n ta't giai t h e va ngUng hoat ddng t r o n g t h a n g 1 la 14.854 doanh nghiep. T r o n g khi do sd' doanh nghiep dang ky t h a n h lap mdi trong ca nfldc cd 10.839 vdi so vd'n d a n g ky la 98,3 nghin ty ddng. Sd' doanh nghiep t h a n h lap mdi it hdn sd' d o a n h nghiep p h a i t u y e n bd' p h a san, ngflng b o a t ddng khid'n khdng it ngudi lo ngai a n h hUcing de'n eac va'n d l n h u t h u h u t d i u tU nfldc ngoai, vide lam, he luy xa hdi. Thflc te' dd cho tha'y viec dfl bao nguy cd xay r a r u i ro p h a san cua cac doanh nghidp, t r o n g dd cd cac doanh nghiep xay dflng la h e t sfle q u a n trpng. Thdng qua viec xac dinh va dfl bao riii ro p h a san, cae n h a q u a n ly eo nhflng quydt sach p h u hdp d i l u c h i n h h o a t ddng k i n h doanh, phdng ngfla n g ^ n chan, b a n ehe' rui ro va t h i e t h a i cd t h e xay ra, cac n h a d i u tfl ed quyd't dinh d u n g t r o n g d i u

t u va eac n g a n h a n g g i a m t h i d u r u i ro tin d u n g , n h a cung ca'p c6 quyd't dinh phfldng thflc t h a n h t o a n p h u hdp.

2. T o n g q u a n n g h i e n c i i u v a p h U d n g p h a p n g h i e n ciJfu

2.1. Tong quan nghien cUu Cd ra't n h i e u phfldng p h a p de danh gia t i n h h i n h r u i ro k i n h d o a n h cua doanh nghiep t r o n g l i n h vUc xay dung, nhieu cdng t r i n h n g h i e n eflu vdi cac ngudn dfl lieu k h a e n h a u nhU: M a s o n va Harris (1979) vdi md h i n h LDA, K a n g a r i , Farid va E l g b a r i b (1992), R u s s e l l a n d Zhai (1996) vdi md h i n h hdi quy da bi^n, phfldng p h a p hdi quy Logit dfldc nghien cflu b3i Russell a n d J a s e l s k i s (1992), Hall (1994), C h a n , T a m , va C h e u n g (2005), H u a n g (2009), phfldng p h a p chi sd Z do n h a n g h i e n cflu Abidali a n d H a r r i s (1995) thflc h i e n .

Hian TTii Thu Hk, TTiS., Tm&ng dai hoc Quang Fuih.

22 Nghiin cOu Kinh tesif 6(481) - Tiling 6/2018

DU b^o rui ro plid san

BANG 1: T h d ' n g k e c a c n g h i d n ciJfu v e r u i r o p h a s a n t r o n g l i n h vUc x a y d U n g Tac gia

Mason va Harris (1979) Kangari,

Farid va Elghanb

(1992)

Russell va Jaselskis

(1992)

Hall (1994)

Abidali va Harris (1995) Chan, Tam,

vk Cheung (2005)

Cong t r i n h nghien curu Phdi ni^n m6 hinh di^m trong xSy dung bao g6m 6 ty le tai chinh

Phat triin chi s6 nang luc d^ xep hang m6t c6ng ty bang each phuc h6i 6 ty s6 iki chinh

Phat triin m6t m6 hinh di du doan xac suJft that bai cua nha thfiu 6 c^p dd du an

Xac dinh cac ySii 16' phfln biet nhOng doanh nghiep t6n tai sau thSt bai Phat tri^n m6t md hmh d^ du do^n that bai cua cdc cdng ty xky dung

Danh gia tai chfnh hieu su^t cua c6ng ty xky dung trong H6ng Kdng

M o hinh

LDA

H6i quy da biS'n

H6i quy Logit

H6i quy Logit Z-Scorc; Chi s6 A v^ quan ly thuc hien bang kh^o sat

Phan tich nhin to va H6i quy logit

Cac yeu to duoc xac djnh 5 khia canh khdc nhau: loi nhuSn;

v6n luu dOng; d6n b^y tai chmh;

tai san ngln han; xu hudng.

He s6' kha nang thanh toan n o ngin han, t6ng no phai tra/gia tri rong, t6ng tai san/doanh thu, doanh thu/v6n lim d6ng rong, lai tiic/t6ng tai san, loi tiJc/gia tri rong

Danh gia s6' tidn ciia chu diu tU;

giam sat chi phi chu s6 hflu; miJc hd tro nhan duoc bdi PM; su tham gia s6m cua nha thSu PM 93 cac bie'n giai ihich kha nang da duoc k i l m tra.

Cac bien tai chi'nh chii y^u

Bien loi nhuan hoat ddng; ROE;

ROA; t6ng tai san/doanh sd'; he so' kha nang thanh toan; EPS; va t y l e no

Nguon d S lieu The dich vu m 6 rdng;

40 nha th^u dan dung.

Dun va Bradstreet;

126 cdng ty xay dUng (6 nhdm)

Khao sat 28 dU an cdng vk 28 du an rifing, 23 trong t6ng sd' 48 cdng ty li6n quan de'n th^l bai Khao sdt 58 cdng ty xky dung co quy md nho

The dich vu mit rdng;

11 cdng ty thSt bai; 20 cdng ty khdng tha't bai Bao cao thucmg nien cua 8 doanh nghifip 16n nhk thdu; giai doan 1997-2002 2.2. Phiidng phdp nghien cUu

Md hinh chi so" Z dfldc Giao Su Edward I.

Altman, trUdng kinh doanh Leonard N.

S t e m , thudc Trudng dai hoc New York gidi thidu n a m 1968 de cho diem tin dung ddi vdi eac doanh nghiep vay vd'n. Md hinh diem Z dUa trdn ky t h u a t thd'ng ke eua p h a n tich p h a n bidt da bid'n (MDA) da dUdc sfl dung rpng rai bdi cac n h a nghidn cflu, cd quan chinh phu de xac dinh eac edng ty tiem n a n g bi p h a san (Mason va Harris, 1979). Mac du ehi so' Z nay dUde p h a t m i n h tai My, nhUng h i u h i t cac nudc v i n c6 t h e sfl dung vdi dp tin cay k h a cao.

Tfl mpt chi so'Z b a n d i u , Giao Sfl Edward I. Altman da p h a t tridn r a Z' va Z" de cd t h e ap dung theo tflng loai h i n h va nganh cua doanh nghiep.

Trong nghien cflu nay, tac gia tinh toan chi so' Z" cd d i l u chinh t r e n cd sd t h u thap dfl heu thfl ca'p la bao cao tai chinh da dfldc kiem toan cua cae doanh nghiep n a m 2016 trong linh vfle xay dung (gdm 14 doanh nghiep) dang dUdc niem ye't t r e n thi trUdng chflng khoan t h a n h phd' Hd Chi Minh. Vi mhi khdng ldn nen toan bd doanh nghiep xay dung dUdc niem yd't deu dUde dUa vao bang sd'heu.

Cdng thflc t i n h chi sd' Z" dUde dieu chinh n h u sau:

Z" = 6,56X1 + 3,26X2 + 6,72X3 + 1,05X4 Ne'u Z" > 2,6: doanh nghiep n a m trong vung an toan, ehua cd nguy cd p h a san; n e u 1,1 < Z" < 2,6: doanh nghiep n a m trong vung canh bao, eo t h e cd nguy cd p h a san; neu Z"

<1,1: doanh nghiep n a m trong vung nguy hiem, nguy cd p h a san cao.

NghiSn ciiu Kinh tSs6 6(481) - Thing 6/2018 23

Da

bdo rui

ro

phd san ...

Trong dd: Xl = ty sd' vd'n lUu ddng / tdng tai san (Working capitals/Total assets).

X2 = ty so' ldi n h u a n gifl lai / tdng tai san (retain earnings/total assets)

X3 = ty soldi n h u a n trUde lai vay va thud'/

tdng tai san (EBIT/total assets)

X4 = gia tri thi trudng cua vd'n chu sb hflu / gia tri sd sach eua tong nd (market value of total equity / book values of total habilities)

3. K e t q u a n g h i d n cvtu v a t h a o l u a n 3.1. Rui ro phd sdn

Dinh nghia ve pha san khae n h a u gifla cac qud'c gia. Nhat Ban co 3 luat cd ban xep nhiing cdng ty ldn nao la pha san bao gdm Luat Phuc hdi cdng dan, Luat Tai td chflc doanh nghidp va Luat Ddng cfla doanh nghiep

HINH 1: Thd'ng k e so' lUdng d o a n h n g h i e p g i a i d o a n

(Xu va Zhang 2008). 6 My cd hai chfldng luat ve nhflng edng ty dfldc xac dinh la pha san nhu sU t h a n h ly trong chUdng 7 va sfl tai td chflc trong chfldng 11 (Alman 1968). Ngoai ra edn ed mdt so" each hieu ve p h a san dfldc xac dinh la viee cdng ty khdng co k h a nang tiep tuc vide kinh doanh hien tai do co nghia vu nd eao (Pongsatat et al. 2004).

Theo D i l u 4, L u a t P h a san Viet Nam nam 2014 quy dinh: p h a san la t i n h trang cua doanh nghidp, hdp tac xa mat k h a nang t h a n h toan va bi Tda an n h a n dan r a quyet dinh tuyen b d p h a san. Doanh nghiep, hdp tac xa ma't k h a n a n g t h a n h toan la doanh nghiep, hdp tac xa k h d n g thflc Men nghia vu t h a n h toan khoan nd trong thdi h a n 3 thang ke tfl ngay de'n h a n t h a n h toan.

g i a i t h e , n g U n g b o a t d o n g v a t h a n h lap mdi 2010 - 2017

D S d doanh nghiep ngirng hoat ddng, giai the"

• Sd doanh nghigp thanh lap mdi

Ngudn: T6ng Theo sd' hdu thd'ng kd sd' Ifldng doanh nghiep giai thd, ngUng boat dong trong giai doan tfl nam 2010 dd'n n a m 2017 cho tha'y ben canh so Ifldng doanh nghiep t h a n h lap mdi thi sd lUdng doanh nghiep giai thd, ngUng boat dpng chiem t y le khdng nho.

Ve p h a n loai doanh nghidp p h a san, khoang 70% la cdng ty thupc loai hinh cdng ty TNHH mot hoac h a i t h a n h vien; edn lai sdcac doanh nghiep cd p h 4 n hda chie'm ty Id ra't nhd, chi t r e n 12%. Dieu nay cho tha'y h i | u qua boat dpng theo md hinh cdng ty TNHH bpc Id nhieu khd k h a n hdn. Ve sd doanh nghiep t h a n h lap mdi, t i n h den hd't

cue Thdng ke.

n a m 2017 cd k h o a n g 126.859 doanh nghiep lap mdi, sd vd'n t r u n g b i n h 10,6 ty ddng/

doanh nghidp. Sd' d o a n h nghidp ngUng hoat ddng va giai t h e la 72.666 doanh nghidp.

3.2. Ddc diem ngdnh xdy dUng Su p h a t t r i e n cua n g k n h xay dflng phu thudc nhidu vao tde dd t a n g trflSng kinh te va eac chinh sach vi mo. Vdi vai tro la nganh hd trd eho s u p h a t t r i e n cua nen kinh td, t a n g trflSng eua n g ^ n h xay dUng p h u thudc vao cae ye'u to' nhfl tdc do dd t h i hda, vdn d^u tfl FDI, lai sua't cho vay vk lam phat.

Ben canh dd, xay d u n g cung la linh vUc tao ndn nen t a n g cho p h a t trien cho nhflng

24

NghiSn ciiu Kmh ^sd 6(481) - Thing 6/2018

DU

bdo rui

ro

phd san

,

n g a n h k h a c va n e n k i n h td' ndi chung, do do, Cliinh phii ludn duy t r i mpt mflc giai n g a n vao linh vflc xay dung, dac biet la cd sd ha t^ng. Ngoai eac chinh sach t a i khoa, chinh sach tien t e ciing cd tac ddng trUe tie'p tdi n g a n h xay dung. Trong giai doan 2 0 1 1 - 2013, ehinh sach t h a t e h a t t i l n td da d^y lai sua't cho vay len mflc t r e n 20%/nam, khien cho ngudn von do vao d a u tU xay dflng giam manh. Do dd, chu ky cua n g a n h xay dflng eung chiu tac ddng m a n h tfl chu k^ eua t a n g trflcing k i n h t e udc t i n h kdo dai k h o a n g 3-10 n a m . Ngoai r a , td'c dp t a n g trudng cua nganh se ed mdt dp lech n h a t dinh so vdi td'c dp t a n g trfldng GDP. To chflc BMI, cung da dfl doan toe dp t a n g trfldng eua n g a n h xay dflng Viet Nam se d a t t r u n g binh 6,3%/nam trong giai doan sap tdi.

ludng nguy cO phd sdn cua cdc doanh nghiep xdy dt/ng niem yet tren sdn chting khodn

Md h i n h dfl bao p h a san la hd thd'ng canh bao sdm dUa t r e n p h a n tieh cae chi sd' dUdc lUa chpn cd k h a n a n g chi r a mpt mdi de dpa trong sfle khoe t a i chinh cua cac doanh nghiep xay dUng dang niem ye't t r e n thi trudng chflng khoan. Tfl cae sd' lieu t i n h toan ed t h e p h a t hien r a cac nguy ed eo t h e xay r a cac trieu chflng eua cae va'n ^ 1 trong tfldng lai, tfl do cac doanh nghiep co cac giai p h a p n h a m giam thieu nguy cd xay r a rui ro p h a san, n g a n ngfla nhflng h a u qua nghiem trong. Dfla vao vide t h u t h a p so lieu tfl eac bao cao t a i chinh da dfldc kidm toan n a m 2016 cua 14 doanh nghidp niem ye't t r e n san chflng k h o a n Hose, tac gia tong hdp cac chi tieu cua chi sd'Z n h u sau:

3.3. Ung dung mo hinh chi so Z do

BANG 2: B a n g t o n g h d p c a c c h i t i e u X1->X4 c u a c a c c o n g t y x a y d U n g n i e m y e t trfin s a n chufng k h o a n H O S E n a m 2016

Ddn vi tinh: ldn STT

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 U 12 13 14

Ten cong ty C r C P X3y dung va giao IhOng Bmh Duong C r C P Chucmg Ducfng

CTCP COMA 18 C r C P x a y dung Coteccons C r C P Tap doan xfly dung Hoa Binh CTCP Halcom Viet Nam C r C P D i u nr va xay dung HUDl CTCP D i n tu va xay dung HUD3

CTCP Xay dung c6ng nghidp va dan dung diu khi CTCP x a y d u n g s * 5

CTCP Kinh doanh va phat tri^n Binh Dudng CTCP DIu tu va xay dung Ti^n Giang CTCP DIu tu xay dung va phat Iri^n do thj Thang Long CTCP x a y dung va phat tri^n d6 thi tinh BS Ria - Vung Tan

M S C K BCE CDC Q G C I D HBC HID HUl HU3 PXI SC5 TDC THG TLD UDC

X I 0,3273 0,3837 0,4191 0,3789 0,0886 0,0806 0,1874 0,1708 0,2531 0,2514 -0,2071 0,1069 0,1711 0,0998

X2 0.0122 0,0220 0,0024 0,1211 0,0460 0,0672 0,0049 0,0263 -0,0117 0,0211 0,0168 0,1245 0,0452 0,0046

X3 0,0203 0,0414 0,0031 0,1502 0,0751 0,0849 0,0181 0,0558 0,0119 0.0354 0,0401 0.1477 0.0640 0,0283

X4 0,1900 0,5931 0.1942 2,6179 0,3795 7,3875 0.1748 0.2485 0.0725 0.2246 0,1304 1,1630 4.8714 0.1799 Ngudn: Ti'nh todn v& xii ly s6' lifiu cda tac gia.

Tren ed sd dfl Ueu tdng hdp va t i n h toan cac ydu to' XI, X2, X3, X4 trong bang 2 cho tha'y eac doanh nghidp xay d u n g niem ye't t r e n san chflng k h o a n dUdc chia lam ba

nhdm tfldng flng vdi ke't qua cua ehi so Z" cua Atlman trong cac k h o a n g gidi han, bao gdm:

Nhom 1: eae doanh nghiep trong vung an toan, chUa cd nguy cd p h a san. Thupe nhdm

Nghiin cAi Kinh t4sS6(481) - Thing 6/2018 25

DUbdo rui ro phd sin ,

nay cd 6/14 doanh nghidp chid'm 42,9%, trong dd, CTCP Halcom Viet N a m eo chi sd Z" n a m 2016 d a t mflc cao nha't, d a t g^n 9,1.

Nhom 2: cac d o a n h nghiep n a m t r o n g vflng eanh bao, khd dfla r a k e t l u a n bao gdm 6/14 doanh nghiep chid'm 42,9 %. Chi 80 Z" cua eae edng ty n a y n a m t r o n g gidi b a n tfl 1,1 den 2,6. D a y la eac doanh

n g h i e p chUa t h e d u a r a dU bao ehinh xac v l k h a n a n g x a y r a r u i r o p h a san.

Nhdm 3 : n h o m d o a n h nghi$p n^m trong v u n g n g u y h i e m , co t h d xay r a rui ro pha s a n bao gdm 2 d o a n h nghidp (chie'm 14,3%) la CTCP K i n h d o a n h va p h a t trien Binh Dfldng (ma chflng k h o a n TDC) va CTCP x a y d u n g va p h a t t r i e n dd t h i Tinh Ba Ria - Vung T a u .

BANG 3: P h a n l e a l n g u y ctf x a y r a r u i r o p h a s a n dfla v a o c h i s o Z " c u a c a c d o a n h n g h i e p x a y dflng n i d m y e t n a m 2016

STT 1 Ten cong ty | Ma CK | Chi so Z "

Doanh nghi€p trong viing an toan co chi s6 Z">2.6 1

2 3 4 5 6

CTCP COMA 18

CTCP Dau tu va xay dung Ti^n Giang CTCP Chuong Duong

CTCP xay dung Coteccons

CTCP Dau tu xay dung va phat tri^n d6 thi Thang Long CTCP Halcom Viet Nain

OG THG CDC CTD TLD HID

2.9818 3.3207 3.4894 6.6382 6,8152 9,0751 Doanh nghiep trong viing canh bao co chi s6' 1.1<Z"<2.6

1 2 3 4 5 6

CTCP DIu tu va xay dung HUDl CTCP Tap doan xay dung Hoa Binh CTCP Xay dung cOng nghifip vi dan dung d^u khi CTCP DIu nr vi xay dong HUD3

CTCP xay dung se» 5

CTCP xay dung va giao thSng Binh Duong

HUl HBC PXI HU3 SC5 BCE

1,5509 1.6347 1.7780 1.8424 2.1918 2.5227 Doanh nghifip nlin trong viing nguy hi^m cochi s6Z"<l.l

1 2

CTCP Kinh doanh va phat tri^n Binh Duong

CTCP xay dung va phat tri^n d6 thi tinh Ba Ria -Vung TSu

TDC UDC

-0.8980 1,0490 Ngudn: Ti'nh loan va xii 1^ s6 U6u cua t^c gia.

Tfl ket qua nghien cflu ve nguy cd xay r a rui ro pha san cua cac doanh nghiep xay dUng trong nam 2016 cho tha'y mdt sd'doanh nghidp cd the xay r a nguy cd t i l m an v l rui ro pha san, tfl dd ddi hdi doanh nghidp phai ap dung ddng bp cac giai phap thich hdp nham tang chi sd'Z" trong thdi gian tdi.

Chi sd Z" anh hfldng bcii 4 yeu td Xl, X2, X3, X4, do vay eac doanh nghiep c i n tap trung de tang chi soZ" bang eac giai phap nhfl sau:

- Quan ly tdt ngudn vd'n luu ddng trong doanh nghiep. Doanh nghiep c4n chfl y de'n

cdng tac dfl bao vdh lflu ddng, nhat la vdn bang tien de sfl dung tdi da hieu qua cua nguon vd'n nay. Cac doanh nghiep xay dflng niem yet trdn thi trfldng chflng khoan thfldng ed thdi diem t h u tien va ehi tidn ddi khi khdng trung khdp, d&n den thfla hoac thieu tidn trong n h i i u trfldng hdp khac nhau. Do v^y viec quan 1^ vd'n lflu ddng la cUe k^ quan trpng.

- Ddi vdi nhflng tai san khong c6 nd hay nd it, khi ban di doanh nghiep se n h a n dUdc thdm tidn mat, khi dd vd'n lUu ddng - tii sdcua XI se tang len. Ben canh do chi phi kha'u hao ciing se giam xudng, d a n de'n ty suat ldi nhu4n

26 NghiSn ciiu Kinh te sff 6(481) • Thing 6/2018

DU

bdo rui

ro

phd san ...

t a n g , tflc l a tfl sd e u a X2, v a X3 se t a n g theo.

Cac d o a n h nghiep xay dflng c i n p h a i r a soat de b a n nhflng nhflng t a i s a n khdng b o a t ddng, k h d n g t r u e tie'p t a o r a d o a n h t h u eho doanh nghiep dd cd t h e giam tdng t a i s a n m a v a n gifla vflng quy md, h i e u q u a b o a t ddng.

- Xay d u n g cd ca'u t a i c h i n h t h e o hfldng giam g a n h n a n g nd, sfl d u n g td't ddn bdy t a i chinh, giam r u i ro, n a n g cao hieu q u a h o a t ddng. Dd t a n g tfl sd'X2, X3 cdng ty can p h a i tao n h i e u ldi n h u a n h d n q u a b o a t ddng k i n h doanh. De t a n g X3 - ldi n h u a n gifl lai, doanh nghidp can p h a i lflu y de'n mflc chia cd tflc cho n h a d4u tfl. Co tflc chia i t di t h i ldi n h u a n gifl lai se t a n g len. Tuy vay, doanh nghiep khdng t h e giam cd tflc de'n mfle q u a t h a p vi k h i dd n h a d i u tU se p h a n flng, dSn den gia cd p h i e u t h a p , dieu n a y se l a m giam tfl sd' cua X4.

- De t a n g X4, c i n p h a i t a n g gia t r i t h i trfldng eiia vd'n c h u sd hflu, b a n g each t a n g t r i gia cd phid'u hoac t a n g gia t r i t a i s a n rdng.

Tuy n h i e n day k h d n g p h a i la cdng vide de thfle hien.

Xay dflng la mdt t r o n g nhflng n g a n h n h a y cam vdi nhflng t h a y ddi t r o n g mdi t r u d n g k i n h doanh. De t a n g chi sd' Z", t u y theo dac t h u cua tflng doanh n g h i e p xay dUng se quyet dinh thUe hidn mot h a y n h i e u giai p h a p n e u t r e n . t J n g d u n g chi so' Z dieu chinh trong viec dU bao r u i ro p h a s a n cho cae doanh nghiep t r o n g eac linh vuc xay dflng co y nghia het sfle q u a n t r o n g k h d n g chi ddi vdi b a n t h a n cac doanh n g h i e p , m a edn ed vai trd ra't ldn vdi n h a hoach d i n h chien Ifldc, cac n h a d i u tfl, cac td ehfle t i n dung, cd q u a n q u a n ly. Tuy n h i e n flng d u n g chi sd' Z" t r o n g dfl bao p h a s a n cua doanh nghiep cd t h e thidu t i n h chinh xac ne'u xay r a t i n h t r a n g gian l a n t r o n g vide cdng bd' so' Heu ke' toan, hoac cac t h u t h u a t l a m dep sd' lieu t r e n bao cao t a i chinh d i n tdi viec cae t h d n g t i n t r e n bao cao t a i chinh k h d n g thfle sfl c h i n h xac, p h a n a n h dung thflc t r a n g t i n h h i n h t a i chinh cua doanh nghidp, do v a y se l a m a n h hfldng de'n k e t qua dfl bao r u i ro p h a san./.

TAI LIEU THAM K H A O

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of finance, 23(4), 589-609.

3. Altman E., Eom Y. & Kim D. (1995), Failure prediction: evidence from Korea, Journal of International Financial Management & Accounting, 6(3), 230-249.

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Journal of Management Studies, 31(5), 737-760.

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Journal of Construction Engineering and Manageinent, ASCE, 118(2), 349-361.

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11. Pongsatat S., Ramage J. & Lawrence H. (2004), Bankmptcy prediction for large and small firms in Asia: a comparison of Ohlson and Altman, Journal of Accounting and Croporate Governance, 1(2), 1-13.

12. Russell J. S. & Jaselskis E. J. (1992), Predicting construction contractor failure prior to contract award.

Journal of Construction En^neering and Management, ASCE, 118(4), 791-811

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the case of Japanese listed companies. Review of Accounting Studies, 14(4), 534-558.

15. T6ng ciic Thtfng kft, https://www.gso.gov.vn /Default.aspx?tabid=217

16. http://cafef.vn/gan-15000-doanh-nghiep-chet-lam- sang-trong-thang-dau-nam-20180129211447955.chn

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