The gidi: Van de - Sy kifn T g p chf COng s d n
XY-RI: SAC THAI CUA MOT cupc CHIEN TRANH UY THAC^
D 6 SON HAI*
Cung nhu mpt logt qudc gia trong khu vyc Bdc Phi - Trung Ddng, chfnh tru&ng Xy-ri von cm a sudt gdn 20 ndm qua bdng chdc tr& nen roi logn b&i cdc cupc biiu tinh du&ng phd hdt ddu tu" thdng 3-2011. Tuy nhien, sy khdc bipt cua tinh hinh Xy-ri Id & chd, sau han 18 thdng, nhung xung dpt giita Chinh phu cda Tong thdng Ba-sa An At-xdt (Bashar al-Assad) v&i phe chdng Si dang ddn ddy ddt nu&c 5 tripu ddn ndy din ben b& mpt cupc npi chien khoe Hpt
Mpt so d^c diem trong cu^c chien tai Xy-ri
Nhu mdt cdn benh truyen nhiem, nhfing cupc bifiu linh dudng phd bat ngudn tfi cudi thdng 12-2010 tgi Tuy-ni-di da nhanh chdng lan ra mft sd nudc Bdc Phi, Trung Ddng va khdi phdt tgi Xy-ri vdo gifia thdng 3-2011.
Khac vdi nhimg gi xdy ra d Y-e-men hay Ba-ranh, nhung cupc bifiu tinh hda binh d qudc gia ndy mau chdng bidn thdnh bgo dpng. Van de Xy-ri bdt dau xuat hifn vdi tu cdch id mft diem ndng tgi Bdc Phi - Trung Ddng. Theo thdi gian, xung dpi tdng dan mfic dp khdc lift vd vdo Ihdi diem hifn tgi da rai vdo tinh trgng trfin bd mfl cugc npi chien dam mau. Tinh hinh cfia Xy-ri eung mau chdng bj qudc td hda, dinh diem la vifc xual hifn sfi mfnh ngogi giao con thoi cua ddc phai vien Lien hgp qudc vd Lien doan A-rdp, dng K.An-nan (K.Annan).
Trong so sdnh vdi tinh hinh dien ra vdo cung thai diem tgi cdc nudc Bdc Phi, Trung Ddng khdc, cugc chien lai Xy-ri kfio ddi ban 18 thdng qua dd phdn dnh mpt so dgc didm sau:
Thic nhdt, day Id kel qud cua nhimg van de npi lgi, nhu quan ly, difiu hdnh ddt nudc;
mau thudn sic tfc, tdn gido; tinh trgng bat binh ding trong xd hgi;... Nhihig mau thuan sic tfe, ldn giao lgi Xy-ri cdn cd phan sdu sdc han nhifiu so vdi mft sd nudc khdc.
Trong sudt chieu ddi Ijch sfi cua nhd nudc Dgi Xy-ri, quydn lyc ludn bj tranh gianh bdi it nhdt ba nhdm sic tpc chfnh la: nhdm Hdi gido thidu sd bao gdm A-Ia-uy (Alawite), Si-ai (Shia), Dm (Druze) ehi chidm khodng 16% dan sd, nhung hifn dang nam gifi hdu bet cac vj trf then chdt frong chfnh quyfin cua Tdng thdng An At-xdt; nhdm ngudi Cuoc (chiem 10% dan sd va ludn cd khuynh hudng ddi ly khai); rUidm Xfin-ni (chifim ldi 74% nhung Igi cd phdn ylu thd frong xd hfi).
Thu hai, cugc chien khdng ehi don thudn phdn dnh mdu thuan xa hfi, md cdn phdt trien theo hudng xung dgt quyln lyc. Tifiu chf ban ddu cua dam ddng bilu tinh Id ddi Tdng thdng An At-xdt tu chuc. Tuy nhifin,
* TS, Hpc vi^n Ngoai giao
102 So 842 (thang 12 niim 2012)
The gidi: Van de - Su kipn Tgp chf COng s d n ngay ca khi nguyen vpng dd dugc ddp fing
va chi dung lgi d sy thay ddi ndi cdc, thi van chua thfi bdo dam ring, bgo lyc se chim dfit. Nhfing mdu thudn sdc tdc tin tgi trong nhieu nam qua ehua dugc giai quyll theo hudng binh dfing hda la mft trong nhfing nguyfin nhan ddn ddn phin ddng sd ngudi theo dong Xdn-ni tham gia lyc lugng ndi dgy nhim lgi dd chinh quyfin md hp cho rdng la cua nhdm thifiu sd (chfi khdng chi rieng ea nhdn Tdng thdng An At-xdt).
Thic ba, tuang quan lyc lugng gifia chfnh quyen cfia Tdng thdng An At-xdt vd phe ndi day tuong ddi can bang, va vi Ihl, xung dft tgi day van chua cho thay ddu hifu se chim dfit. Mdi bdn dfiu cd sy ho frg tfi ben ngoai.
Su hau thuan tfi phia Nga (va d muc dp ndo do la ca Trung Qudc) da giup Tdng thdng An At-xdt kidn dinh vd ty tin frong chfnh sach ddi vdi phe ndi day. So vdi nhifiu nudc ttong khu vyc, nhu Ai Cap hay Li-bi, lyc lugng ndi day d Xy-ri rdt phfic lap, chia re thanh nhifiu nhom, frong do, ndi len hai nhom chinh Id Qudn dpi ty do Xy-ri (FSA) dudi sy tdi trg chu yen tfi Lien dodn A-rdp (FSA la Iyc lugng giao franh chinh vdi quan dpi eua chinh phu frong sudt hon mpt nam qua). Nhdm thu hai la Hpi ddng dan tpc Xy-ri (SNC) duge thdnh lap nhdm phdi hgp cac phe phai ndi day, nhung hifn dang mat dan vai trd. Sy phan hda trong phe ndi day khien cho sfic mgnh cua lye lugng nay bj giam sut nghifim trpng, khdng tgo dyng dugc long tin ddi vdi cdc nudc tai frg.
Thu tu, vin dl Xy-ri bj qudc te hda ngay cdng cao va phfic tgp hon nhifiu so vdi Li-bi.
Ngay sau khi xung dot bat dau bung phat tgi Xy-ri, My va mdt sd nudc Tay Au, nhu Anh, Phap da tieh cyc fing hp phe ddi Igp vdi mong mudn lap lgi kich ban thay ddi che dp nhu d mpt sd nudc Bac Phi, Trung Ddng khac. Tuy nhien, tinh loan do cfia My vd cac ding minh da bi chgn lgi bdi sy vao cupc cua
Trong Chuang trinh 6 diim cua dng K. An~nan di xudt, Xy-ri dua ra nhiing cam kit nhu:
1- Bdn thdo vi tiin trinh chinh tri do Xy-ri ddn ddt nhdm gidi quyit nhOrng nguypn vpng hpp phdp vd mdi lo nggi cda ngu&i ddn Xy-ri
2- Ngung giao tranh vd ngung vipc di chuyen qudn cung nhu su- dgng vu khi hgng ngng trong cdc khu vyc ddng ngu&u Nhung hdnh dpng ndy duprc Xy-ri thyc hipn du&i sy gidm sdt cua Liin hpp qudc.
3- Chap nhgn mdi ngdy ngiing bdn hai tieng di cdc td chirc qudc ti vgn chuyin ngu&i M thuffng vdphdn phdt vipn trpe nhdn dgo cho cdc ngn nhdn.
4- Tdng cu&ng phdng thich nhitng ngu&i bi chinh quyen bdt giam vd cung cdp dia chi noi dang giam giir hp.
5- Bdo dam cho cdc nhd bdo di lgi ty do khdp Xy-ri vd cdp thi thyc khdng phdn bipt ddi xir cho cdc nhd bdo.
6- Tdn trpng ty do hiep hdivd quyin biiu tinh hoa binh duffc bdo ddm hpp phdp.
Nga va Trung Qudc. Trong trudng hgp cua Li-bi, Nghj quydt sd 1973 cfia Hdi ddng Bao an Lien hgp qudc vfi thiet lap vung cam bay da ra ddi nhd sy im lgng cua Nga va Tnmg Qudc. Tuy nhien, difiu tuong tu da khdng xdy ra frong Irudng hgp Xy-ri, bdi Nga vd Trung Qudc da sfi dung quyen phu quyet de ngdn cdn. Chinh sy bit ddng gifia cac thanh vien cua Hdi ddng Bao an da md dudng cho Lien doan A-rap can dy vao van de Xy-ri.
Tmh hinh Xy-ri bj qudc tfi hda tdi muc frd thanh Iy do dd ca hai phia td chfic nhieu cupc hfi ihao kilu "Xy-ri va nhfing ngudi ban", vd dang chu y nhat la cupc franh luan ve van S(> 842 (thfing 12 nam 2012) 103
The'gidl: Van de - Sy kifn I chf COng sAn dl ndy tgi Dgj hfi ding Lien hgp quic khda
67 vdo thdng 10-2012 vfia qua.
Thu ndm, cflng chfnh vi tinh qu6c tl hda cao nen khd nfing Idy lan cfia cufc chiln lgi Xy-ri. md trudc het Id sang cdc quic gia Idng gilng, nhu Thi NhT Ky, l-ric, Ciiodc- da-ni, Li-bdng,... rit Idn. Diln hlnh Id ngdy 3-10-2012, mfl sl qud dgn phdo dugc bin tfi phfa Xy-ri sang thj Iran A-ca-ka-la, phfa ddng nam Thi NhT Ky ldm it nhit 5 ngudi thift mgng, 13 ngudi bj thuong. NhOng sy viec tuong ty Id khd frdnh khdi khi md cdc cufc giao tranh gifia Chfnh phfi Xy-ri vd phe ndi d§y Ian rpng ra sdt bien gidi cdc qudc gia Idng gieng. Dd Id chua tfnh din khd ndng cd thi cd sy tham gia cfia cdc nhdm vu trang danh thufi cho cd hai ben.
Vi sao cic gidi phip deu that bai?
Ke lfi thdng 3-2011 cho den thdi diem thdng 10-2012, nhieu bifn phdp nhim giai quyel xung dft lgi Xy-ri dd dugc lien hdnh, cd thfi khdi qudl thanh 3 nhdm chfnh sau:
Mpt Id, sfi dyng cdc bifn phdp qudn sy.
Xual phdt lfi cdch nhin nhdn ve nhau ndn cd phia Chfnh phu Xy-ri ldn qudn ndi dgy ddu lya chgn cdc bifn phdp quan sy de gidi quyfil mau thuan. Theo Chinh quyln cfia Tdng thong An At-xdt, lyc lugng nil d^y chi la nhihig ke khung bo, dugc nude ngodi ldi trg, do dd can kien quydt trin dp. Dinh diem cua chinh sach cfing rin ndy the hifn trong myen bd ngdy 23-07-2012 vl khd ndng se sfi dyng vu khi hda hgc. M$c du ngudi phdt ngdn cfia Bg Ngoai giao Xy-ri G. Mdc-di-xi (J. Makdissi) khing djnh, vu khf hda hgc vd sinh hgc cfia Xy-ri s6 khdng bao gid dugc sfi dyng trong bil ky cupc giao tranh npi bd ndo hay dung de chdng Igi ngudi dan Xy-ri eho du "bat ke cugc khung hodng dd leo thang dfin dau", nhimg cfng ding qudc ll van td ra bet sue quan nggi trudc tuydn bd ndy cua Chinh phu Xy-ri. Trong khi do.
quan diem ciia phe ndi dgy dugc dng Ri-dt An At-xdt (Riad al-Assad), Dgi td tu Ifnh Iyc lugng nii d^y - Qudn dfi ty do Xy-ri (FSA) khing djnh, "khdng cdn con dudng ndo khdc ngodi vifc sfi dgng vu lyc dfi Igt dl chfnh quyln An At-xdt", bdi "chfnh quyln An At-xdt khdng hilu ngdn ngfi chfnh frj md chi bill dfing vu lyc. Chfing ta phdi gidi phdng dil nudc khdi chfnh quyen tgi phgm ndy". H^u qud tit ylu cua bipn phdp vu Iyc Id sl ngudi ddn Xy-ri thift mgng gia tfing tfing ngdy. Cho din nay, giao tranh vin dien ra quyll lift d nhilu thdnh phd Idn, nhu A-le-pd, Hdm-xa,... vd chua cd diu hifu ndo cho thiy bdn ndo sfi that bgi.
Hai Id, dfing sfic fip quoc tl. Vdi cdch tiep cgn "bdo vf thudng ddn" nhu dfi Iam vdi Li-bi, ngay tu dau, mgt sd nudc phucmg Tdy, di dau Id My dd dp dyng cdc bifn phdp trfing phgt Chfnh phfi Xy-ri. Ngogi Irudng My H.Clin-tan (H.Clinton) nhan mgnh,
"chung ta s€ dp d$t cam vgn tim quoc gia vd quoc td chdng Xy-ri, tfing cudng cac bifn phdp trfing phgt... Cdc bifn phdp nay sfi Idm kif I quf ngudn tai chinh vd vu khi ma bf mdy chifin franh cfia che df An At-xdt dang vgn hdnh". Ngdy 19-4-2011, Tdng thing My B. 6-ba-ma (B. Obama) dd ky sdc Ifnh dp d$l bifn phdp tiung phgt, nhu phong tda tdi sdn mft so quan chfic cao cap cfia Chfnh phfi An At-xdt... Tilp theo, thdng 5-2011, Lidn minh chau Au (EU) dd lift vao sl den ldng cfng 129 ed nhdn, 49 edng ty eua Xy-ri vd lim mpi cdch phong tda tdl sdn cfia hp d bit cfi noi ndo.
Sau cupc chiln franh xdm lugc I-rdc day tai tilng. My dd tgn dyng trift dd vai ttd cua Hfi dong Bdo an Lifin hgp quic trong qud trinh gidi quylt cdc cufc xung dft tgi Bic Phi - Trung Ddng. Trong sudt 2 nfim 2011 - 2012, ehua cd vin dl khu vyc ndo dugc mang ra Hfi ddng Bdo an Lien hgp quic ban thdo nhilu nhu vin dl Xy-ri. Tuy 104 So 842 (thdntj 12 mim 2012)
The gidi: Van de - Su kien Tgp chf COng s d n nhifin, lifu phap cfia Hfi ding Bdo an Lien
hgp qudc cung ldm vdo bl tic bdi chfnh co chl phfi quylt cfia co quan ndy.
Ba Id, gidi phdp tiung gian hda gidi. Sy bfi lie cua edc giai phdp quic ll cpng vdi tinh hinh chiln sy kdo ddi dd thuc diy sy ra ddi cfia md hinh hda gidi chfnh trj tgi Xy-ri vdi vai frd eau ndi cfia dfie phdi vifin cfia Lien hgp qudc vd Lifin dodn A-r§p, cyu Tdng Thu ky Lifin hgp qudc, dng K. An-nan.
Sau nhung hogt dpng ngogi giao con thoi day vat vd vdi cd Chinh quyfin cfia Tong thdng An At-xdt vd phe ndi dgy (FSA vd SNC), vdi nhdm P5 (gdm 5 nudc fiy vifin thudng tryc) cfia Hpi ddng Bdo an Lifin hgp qudc, dng K. An-nan dd dua ra gidi phdp mdi vdi ten gpi "Chuang Irlnh 6 dilm".
Su thanh cdng cua chuang trinh ndy phy thufc vdo vific hai ben chap thudn ngfing giao franh de lien ldi hiep thuong ciing nhu chdm dfit su hd trg tfi ben ngodi. Tuy nhien, giai phdp nay ciing lam vao tinh trgng nhu nhfing gidi phdp trudc dd, vd ket cyc cudi cfing la, ngay 02-08-2012, dng K. A-nan da xin tu chuc, bdi nhu dng ndi: "day Id lien trinh chi'nh trj day khd khfin, frong khi ldi lai khdng nhgn dugc su fing hg hodn todn cfia Hdi ddng Bdo an". Ngay sau dd, dng L.Bra-hi-mi (L.Brahimi, cyu Bp trudng Ngogi giao An-gifi-ri), ngudi cd nhieu kinh nghifm vd uy tin tgi Lien hgp qudc cung nhu Lifin doan A-rdp dd dugc bd nhipm thay Ihl, thd nhung ddn thdi diem hifn tgi, dac phai vidn mdi ndy cung chua dua ra dugc mdt sang kifin nao khd thi ban cho van dfi Xy-ri.
Nhimg gidi phap da dugc dp dyng trong suit gin 2 nam qua dfiu chua dem Iai mfl hy vpng hda binh ndo cho ngudi dan Xy-ri, tnr&c hit, la do cdch tilp cdn vin dl Xy-ri ciia cdc bdn lien quan (cd tryc tilp vd gian lilp) chua thuc su sat vdi thuc tl. Tinh din thdi dilm hidn tgi, cudc chifin da mang dam
tfnh chil tranh chip quyen lyc. Cd hai phfa dlu chf chip thu^n mft phuong dn duy nhit cd Igi cho hp. Thu den Id sue dp cfia cfng ddng quic tfi cdn thilu sfic n§ng. Cung gilng nhu tinh hinh d mft sl nudc trong khu vyc, ngudi ta cho ring, chi cin gay dp Iyc th^t mgnh lfi bfin ngodi sfi bufc Tong thong An At-xdt thodi vj. Tuy nhien, mdu thuan gifia cdc nudc Idn do sy khdc bift vfi Igi ich tgi Xy-ri da khiln cho cdc gidi phdp quoc lfi khdng phdt huy dugc hifu qud. 6 mpl mfic df nao dd, Nga cung mong mudn Chfnh phfi Xy-ri ngfing giao tranh va tifin hdnh ddm phdn vdi phe ndi dgy, tuy nhifin, Nga kifin quyfit phdn ddi vifc gay dp lyc bupc Tdng thdng An At-xdt rfit lui nhu mpl dieu kifn lien quyet cho dam phdn. Trong khi dd, sy chia re ttong nfi bf phe ndi day khien My va cac ddng minh khdng dam mgo hiem ddc vdn liing tai trg cho FSA hay mdt lyc lugng ndo dd. Vdi sac thai
"mdt cudc chidn tranh fiy thdc", xung dot lgi Xy-ri khd cd Ihl giai quyet khi ma Nga vd cac nudc phuang Tay, trudc hfit Id My, chua thfi thda hifip dugc vdi nhau. Thyc tfi, da cd thdi difim Chinh phfi Xy-ri chap thuan phuang dn cua dng K. An-nan the hifn qua viec hai lin luyen bd chap nhdn ngfing bfin.
Tuy nhifin, Ifnh nay da mau chdng hfit hifu lyc do phe ndi day khdng chip hdnh. Mpt yiu to nira khifin chifin sy vdn d the gifing CO la Iuc lugng gifia ddi bfin tucmg ddi cdn bing. Chfnh phu cfia Tdng thdng An At-xdt khdng bj cd lap nhu d Li-bi. Thgm chi, lu khodng gifia nam 2012 frd Igi day, tuy trong nfi bf Chinh phu Xy-ri bit ddu xuit hifin nhihig rgn nfit, nhung bfi lgi, mft bf phgn dan ehung da khdng cdn fing hp phe ddi I^p.
Hien lgi, ca hai phe vdn cdn dang tin tudng vdo kha nang gidnh chien thfing frdn chien trudng. Cudi ciing, vifc cd Hdi ddng Bdo an Lien hgp qudc ldn Lien dodn A-rgp cung can thiep vdo Xy-ri cdng khien cho van de So 842 (thang 12 nam 2012) 105
The gidi: Van de - Sy kipn T g p chf COng sAn
them kho giai quyll. Bdn than moi co che quic lfi ndy dlu dang bfc If khdng il hgn che trong vifc xu ly cdc xung dpi khu vyc.
Hpi ddng Bdo an Lidn hgp quoc bj cdn trd bdi CO chl phfi quyci. edn mdu thuin trong ngi bg cac thdnh vifin khiln cho Lien dodn A-rgp khd co thfi dua ra mpl quyll djnh rd rdng vd Xy-ri. Trong Ijch su, hai co che nay chua bao gid cd the phoi hgp vdi nhau mgt cdch hifu qud. Bfing chfing Id xung dgt I-xra-en - Pa-le-xtin dd ton tgi ban nfia Ihl ky ma vdn chua dugc gidi quyel.
HiriVng di cho mpt gidi phdp mdi Tien trinh phdi tricn cfia van dfi Xy-ri cho thay. hifn dang tdn tgi hai quan diem khdc nhau ve cdch thue xit ly vdn de ndy.
Theo quan difim cua Nga vd mpl sd nudc khdc, hay dfi nhdn ddn Xy-ri ty djnh dogt van menh cfia minh. The nhung, trudc thyc trgng giao tranh khdc lift hifn nay, neu gidi quyfil theo hudng ndy, tinh hinh bat dn cfia Xy-ri se cdn tidp luc keo ddi, vd cd Id chi dimg lgi khi cd mpl ben chap nhgn ddu hdng. Ddi thogi trong cupc chien hidn nay rdt khd thyc hien neu khdng cd mpl dpng lyc thdi thfic cdc bfin chdp nhgn thda hifp.
Quan diem cfia My va cdc nudc Tay Au thi ngugc Igi. Hp cho rfing, cdn phdi cd sy can thifp mgnh mfi, kfi ca phai sfi dpng cdc bidn phdp qudn sy mdi cd thfi thidt lgp dugc hda binh lgi Xy-ri. Theo hp, nguyen nhdn ehfnh ddn dfin linh trgng hien nay d Xy-ri Id do sy tdn tgi cfia Chfnh quyfin cfia Tdng thdng An At-xdt, chi cdn An At-xdt ra di Id mpi chuyfn sd trd lgi binh thudng. Hudng gidi quyfil ndy r6 rang chi nhim hg bf cd nhdn Tdng thdng An At-xdt, chfi hoan lodn khdng ed ea sd de khing dinh bgo lye sfi cham dut. Tinh trgng bgo Iuc vdn liep difin tgi cdc nudc Ai Cap, Li-bi,... sau "mua xudn A-rgp" la bfing chfing ro net nhat chfing minh tinh thien can cfia gidi phdp ndy.
Dfi quan dilm cfia cdc ben cd sy khdc bift nhu vgy, nhung cd mft thyc tl la tit cd dfiu dang dinh Ifu den linh hinh Xy-ri. Bdn than Nga cung nhu My van dang tidp lgc vifn trg eho phe md hg ung hg. Ndi cdch khdc, dl cd Ihl chim dfit cufc chiln tgi Xy-ri thi sy tdc dpng lfi bfin ngodi Id khd trdnh khdi.
vin dl Id hinh thuc vd myc dich tdc dfng dd cd thyc sy hudng tdi sy edng bdng vd hda binh cho ngudi ddn Xy-ri hay khdng?.
Duong nhien, vifc tim kiem mpt gidi phap mdi nhdm chim dui bgo Iyc lgi Xy-ri Id khdng hi de, bdi dieu kifn lien quyet Id sfi phdi thda mdn, cho dfi d mpt muc dp tuang dli ndo dd, Igi ich cfia rdt nhifiu phfa.
Xet tdng the, de cd thfi chim dut giao tranh tgi Xy-ri cdn thiet lap dugc mpt chinh phfi mdi. Chinh phu nay phai thda mdn it nhdt mft sd dieu kifn co ban, nhu cd sy tham gia cfia cd hai phia vdi sd lugng phfi hgp; cdn cd mgt chuang frinh hdnh dpng hda giai vd phdt trien ddt nudc rd rang theo hudng tgo sy cdng bdng, dan chu ddi vdi mpi sic tpc, tdn gido. Dfie bipt, chuang trinh ndy phdi chfing td cho thd gidi thay sy can bing trong quan hf vdi ed hai nhdm nudc Idn, lieu bidu Id My vd Nga.
Trong bdi cdnh hifn nay, vifc thiel Igp mfl chfnh phu mdi ndu fren se rdt khd thdng qua bdu cfi phd thdng. Chfnh vi thfi, sy ho trg cua cgng ddng qudc le, trudc het Id cfia Lifin hgp qudc, la bet sfic cdn thifit.
Tuy nhien, ddi thogi gifia hai phe de di dfin hifp thuang chi ed the dien ra khi hp cdm nhgn dugc sfic ep lfi ben ngodi la nhu nhau.
Ndi cdch khdc, budc di ddu tien cho giai phap mdi Id My vd Nga phdi ngdi vdi nhau dd cung dgt dugc sy thda hidp. Tidn trinh phat trien efia van de Xy-ri chi ra rdng, van cdn khdng it khd nang dd thao gd vin dfi nay hidu qua va hda binh hon, quan trgng la cdc bfin lidn quan cd thifn chi hay khdng vd din mue dp ndo.G
106 Sd 842 (thati-i 12 niim 20f 2)