QUAN HE DOI NGOAI
TAC OONC CUA ACFTA 001VCH ASEAN 6 SAU HAI NAM THl/C HIEN
PGS.TS NGUVeN THU MY Dai hpc Dong Do, Hd N6i
H
hQ moi ngUdi da biet, ngiy 1-1- 2010, Khu mfiu dich tQ do ASEAN - Trung Quob (ACFTA) da dUdc xay dUng xong trong khu vQe ASEAN 6 va Trung Quoc. Vao thdi diem d6, 89 % cac dong t h u l cua ASEAN v i Trung Quo'c da bi loai bo, 3 % con lai trong Danh muc cat giam binh thQdng se diidc giam xuo'ng mde thue' 0 % v i o 1-1- 2012"».Da hai nam troi qua, ke tQ khi ACFTA dQdc hien thue hoa, cho tdi nay c6 rfi't nhieu danh gia khfic nhau v l tfic dong cua ACFTA doi v6i sQ phfit trien kinh t l cua cac nu6c ASEAN 6, cua Trung Quo'c, va tfic dong cua khu mfiu dich tu do n i y dli v6i quan hg ASEAN- Trung Quoc.
NhQng n h i n x6t qua tich cue hay qua tigu CQc ve t i c dong cua ACFTA d i u anh hudng khong tot t6i vi$e t r i l n khai xay dQng ACFTA b cac t h i n h vign mdi cua ASEAN, nhQng nQ6c se h o i n t h i n h vigc cat giam thue theo quy dinh cua ACFTA v i o 1-1-2015 ciing nhQ tfic dong xi'u tdi quan hg hdp t i c ASEAN- Trung QuIe.
Trong boi canh nhQ vfiy, rfi't efin e6 nhQng dfinh gia khfich quan v l t i e dong
34
cua khu mfiu dieh tQ do nay n h i m chi ra nhQng mfit tich cQc v i h a n c h i cua n6 de s6m c6 bien phfip phat huy hi$u qua vi khfic phuc nhflng vfi'n d l nay sinh trong qua trinh tig'p tig'p xay dilng v i hoin thi^n ACFTA.
B i i vilt n i y se g6p phfin dfip ling ySu clu tren.
I. TAG D O N G C O A ACFTA SAU HAI NAM T 6 N TAI
1. Tfic ddng tfch cue
De danh gifi dting tfie dong cua ACFTA, trxidc hg't c i n trd lai cac myc tieu ma ASEAN v i Trung QuIc theo duoi khi quyet dinh xay dQng khu m§u dich tti do niy. Mtic tieu cd ban nhi't cua ACFTA Ii d^y manh quan he m i u dieh v i d i u t\i ASEAN - Trung Quoc.Viy ACFTA da giup ASEAN v i Trung Quoc d^t dQ0c nhiing muc tieu dd nhQ thg' n i o ?
1.1 ACFTA thuc ddy quan he mau dich ASEAN- Trung Qudc
DQ6i tfie dong eua ACFTA, mfiu dich hai ehilu ASEAN- Trung QuIe da tang nhanh chQa tting thfi'y. S Q t i n g trQdng
NGHIEN CliU TRUNG QUfiC so 6(130) - 2012
i
Tac ddng cua ACFTA ddi vdi...
mfiu dich nay dQdc bat dfiu ngay khi hai ben thUc hign c i t giam t h u l (tQ 1-1-2004) va gia tang cung vdi qua trinh cfit giam, loai bd thug' quan trong quan hg m i u dich giQa hai ben. Ne'u vao nam 2004, tong gia tri xufi't khau cua ASEAN sang Trung Quo'c mdi dat 41,352 ty USD thi
tdi nam 2008, gia tri xufi't kh^u cua ASEAN sang Trung Quoc da tang hdn 2 Ifin, dat mQc 85, 558 ty USD. Gia tri nhfip kh£u tQ Trung QuIc cua ASEAN d hai thdi diem tren Ifin lU(?t la 47.714 ty USD v i 107.114 ty USD (Xem Bang 1).
Bdng 1: MAU DICH GIQA C A C NUdC THANH V | 6 N ASEAN VA TRUNG QU6'c TLT 2004-2008 (trieu do la My ) Ni/dc
Xuat khau cua ASEAN sang Trung QuSc
BrunSy Campuchia Indonfexia Lao Malaixia Myanma Philippin Xingapo Thai ian Viet nam Nhap khau cua ASEAN tCf Trung Quoc
BrunSy Campuchia indonexia Lao l^alaixia l^yanma Ptiilippin Xingapo Thai ian Vi6t nam
2004 41 352
243 12 4.605 1 8.634 75 2.653 15.321 7.098 2.711 47.714
87 337 4.101 89 11.353 351 2.659 16.137 8.183 4.416
2005 52 258
" "234""
15 6.662 4 9.465 119 4.077 19.770 9.083 2.828 61.136
94 430 5.843 185 14.361 286 2 973 20.527 11.116 5.327
2006 65.010
174'""
13 8.344 1 11.391 133 4.628 26.472 10.840 3.015 75.951
120 516 6.637 23 15.543 397 3 647 27.185 13.578 7.306
2007 77.945
201 ^ """""
11 8 897 35 15.443 475 5.750 28 925 14 873 3 336
93.173
157 653 8.616 43 18.897 564 4.001 31.908 16.184 12.148
2008 85 558
13 11.637 15 18.422 499 5.467 29.082 15.931 4.491 107.114
171 933 15.247 131 18.646 671 4 250 31.583 19.936 15 545 Ngudn : ASEAN Trade Statistics Database (Data as July 2009)
Kim ngach bu6n ban hai chilu giQa tQng nUdc thanh vien ASEAN vdi Trung Quo'c ciing gia tang nhanh chdng. Nlu nam 2004, buon ban hai ehilu Indonexia - Trung Quoc I i 8,706 ty, tdi nam 2008 da len tdi 26,884 ty do la My.
Xuat khau cua tQng nQdc ASEAN cung tang Ign vdi toe dd kha cao. Vi du, nam 2004, Inddngxia xua't khau sang Trung quo'c mot so hang hda tri gia 4.605 ty do la My, 4 nam sau, con so' do len tdi 11.637 ty, tang hdn 2 l l n . Xingapo la nQdc xua't NGHIEN CUU TRUNG QUOC so 6(130) - 2012
35
NGUYEN THU MY
kh^u du<?c nhi^u h&ng h6a nhfi't sang Trung qu^c. Gifi tri xufi't kh^u ciia nUdc nfiy trong nfim 2008 14 29,082 ty it la MJ.
Quan h? mfiu djch ASEAN- Trung Quo'c da tfing d$t bi€'n, k^ tii sau khi ACFTA c6 hi^u luc trong khu vi^c ASEAN 6 vfi Trung Qu6'c. NSm 2010, m^u djch hai ehilu ASEAN - Trung Quoc dat 292,8 ty USD"'.
Xufi't kh^u cua ASEAN sang Trung Quoc tfing 37,9 % tit 81,6 ty USD nfim 2009 len 112,6 ty nSm 2010. Trung QuCfc tr5 thfinh thi tru6ng xufi't kh£u 16n thii hai cua ASEAN. Nhfip k h l u tii Trung Quoc tfing 27,6 % tit 96,6 ty USD nfim 2009 ISn 123,2 ty nfim 2010. Dfiy Ifi nfim thii hai lien tifi'p, Trung Quoc Ifi doi tac m^u dich ldn nhfi't eOa ASEAN, chiem 11,6 % tong mfiu dich ciia ASEAN'^*. Mfiu dich song phucfng ASEAN- Trung Quoc t i l p tuc gia tang trong nfim 2011. Theo 6ng Xu Ningning (H(3a Ninh Ninh), To'ng ThU ky Dilu hanh cua Hoi dong kinh doanh Trung QucTc, trong 11 thfing d l u nfim 2011, mfiu dich hai ehilu Trung Quoc- ASEAN dat 296,9 ty USD"'.
ViSc ACFTA ed hi^u luc da thiic iHy mfiu dich hai ehilu gifla cfic nU6c thfinh vien ASEAN vfi Trung Quoc. Tdng kim ngach mfiu dich Xingapo- Trung Quoc nfim 2010 len t«i 95,3 ty USD, tfing 25,9 % so vdi 2009<».
Tren cd sd nhQng thfinh tUu trgn, t^ii H^i nghi ThUiJng dinh ASEAN - Trung Quoc l4n tha 13 hop thang 10/2010, t^d H4 N?i, hai ben dat muc tieu nfing kim ngach hai ehilu len 500 ty USD vfio nfim 2015.
Trong quan h6 mfiu dich, ed cfi'u hfing hofi xuaft kh^u giiia hai bgn da c6 aif b i l n ddi theo ehilu hudng tfch eiic. Trudc nfim 2003, hfing hda xu^t k h I u ciia Ind6n@xia sang Trung Qudc, ehu y l u Ifi dSu mo vfi
3 6 —
khf dlt. Trong 5 n i m vQa qua, x u l t kh^u cic san phflm phi d^u md v i khf dSt cua nQde n i y sang Trung QuEfc da gia t i n g vi chig'm ty 1§ ldn hdn (51%). NhQng hing hda ddng gdp v i o sQ thay d^i cd c§iu n i y Ii md v i d i u dOng v|it ho§c thQc v i t ciing cac san ph^m t i c h ra tQ chQng; md i n da chg' bi^n; s i p d^ng v^t v i thQc v $ t ; cao su vi cic san ph^m tQ cao su; b$t gS ho$c b$t cua eie eh^Tt cellulo; gilfy ph€' thai chi bi^n l^i v i bang gii^y ; qu$ng , si, v i tro;
hda hQu cd; ddng v i cie san phflm tQ d6ng;
m i y mde thifft bi di$n v i phu tung; may ghi fim v i m i y quay dia, ti v i , may quay dia v i cic b0 p h i n , phu tQng ; 16 vi sdng ; m i y dun nQdc...**'
Cd eiii xui't kh£u h i n g hda cua cic nQdc ASEAN k h i c sang Trung Qu6c cung ed nhQng big'n doi theo hQdng gia ting phdn cua h i n g hda c h i tao trong t^ng h i n g hda xui't khfiu sang Trung Qu6c.
Dilm d i n g iQu ^ I i , trong khi thuc diy t i n g trQdng m£iu dich giQa Ddng Nam A v i Trung Qu6c. ACFTA khdng hi ldm gidm kim ngach mdu dich giSa ASEAN vd cdc dot tdc mdu dich truyin thdng cmi Hiip hdi (My, EU . Nhdt bdn). T h i t viy.
tong kim ngach m i u dich ASEAN - Nhit Ban n i m 2010 da t i n g 12 % so vdi nim 2009, d§it mQc 1 203,9 ty USD<^. M^u dich hai ehilu ASEAN- My t i n g 24,4 % vio n i m 2010 d^t 186,1 ty USD so vdi 149,6 ty v i o n i m 2009. Xui't kh£u cua ASEAN sang MS t i n g 27 % len tdi 85,6 ty USD, xui't khfiu cua M^ sang ASEAN t i n g 22%
Ign tdi 100,5 ty v i o n i m 2010™. Theo dng Pushpannathan, Phd Tdng thQ ky ASEAN phu traeh v l Cong dong kinh tl" ASEAN, m i u djch cua ASEAN vdi cic dm tic ngoii ACFTA t i n g t r u n g binh 17,5 % tQ 2005-2010'*.
TV nhitng thUc ti trin cd thi khang dinh rang ACFTA khdng cki ddng gop
NGHIEN Clhl TRUNG QUOC s o 6 ( 1 3 0 ) - 2 0 1 2
T6c d^ng cua ACFTA ddi vdf...
vdo viic tao mdu dich trong khu vUc ASEAN - Trung Quoc md cbn khdng gdy nen hieu Ung chuyin hodn mau dich nhu m6t sd" n h i kinh te da dQ b i o trQdc dfiy.
12. ACFTA thUc ddy ddu tu, dac biet Id ddu tu cua Tr$0g Qudic vdo ASEAN
Viec ACFTA dQdc hien thuc hda cung thuc dfiy d i u tQ giQa ASEAN v i Trung
Bdnff2:D6NGFDICIIIATRUNGQU6C d A S E A N
Quo'c. Trong n i m 2010, d i u tQ cua ASEAN vio Trung Qud'c dat 6,32 ty USD, t i n g 35,2 %ti<".
Dilm d i n g chii f nhi't v l t i c dong cua ACFTA ddi vdi quan h$ d i u tQ ASEAN - Trung Quoc I i sQ gia tfing ddu tQ cua cac cdng ty Trung Quoc vio khu vQc ASEAN.
(Trifiu USD)
Tdng FDI cOa Trung Qufic ra thd giti Xingapo
IndOnfixia W t Nam Myanma Thai Lan Campuchia Maiaixia Lfio Philippin Bmnfiy
Tong FDI cua Trung Qudc trong khu v i e ASEAN
Phan % ciia ASEAN trong tdng sd 2003 33.222,22 164,83 54,26 28.73 10,22 150,77 59,49 100,66 9,11 8,75 0,13 5S6,95
1,77%
2004 44.777,26 233.09 121,75 160,32 20,18 181.88 89.89 123,24 15,42 9,80 0,13 955,70
2,13%
2005 57.205,62 325,48 140,93 229,18 23,59 219,18 76,84 186,83 32,87 19,35 1,90 1.256,15
2,20%
2006 75.025,55 468,01 225,51 253,63 163,12 232,67 103,66 196,96 96,07 21,85 1,90 1.763,38
2,35%
2007 117.910,50 1.443,93 679,48 396,99 261,77 378,62 168,11 274,63 302,22 43,04 4,38 3.953,17
3,35%
2008 183.970,71 3.334,77 543,33 521,73 499,71 437,16 390,66 361,20 305,19 86,73 6,51 6.486,99
3,53%
Chu thich : (ii). ASEAN +3 bao gSm ASEAN. Trung Quoc, Nhat bdn vd H&n qudc
Nguon: UNCTAD. 2010a. FDI/TNC Database. http:/ /stats.unctacr.orE/FDI/ReoortFolders /rcportFolders.aspx?sCS _refercr=&sCS_ChosenLang=en.
Nhin vio Bang 2 chiing ta se thfi'y FDI eua Trung Qudc cl ASEAN da tfing d i n ciing vdi vi§e cat giam t h u l theo lo trinh dudc dat ra trong ChUdng trinh thu hoaeh sdm vfi trong Hidp dinh mfiu dich hang hoa ASEAN- Trung Qudc"". Nam 2003, khi ACFTA chua duae b i t dau xfiy dung trong khu vUe ASEAN 6 (trii Thai Lan), FDI ciia Trung Qude 6 khu vUc nfiy mdi chi la 686,95 trieu USD, tdi nam NGHIEN cAU TRUNG gu£c so 6(130) - 2 0 1 2
2004, nfim d i u tien tfi't ea cfie nUdc trong nhdm ASEAN 6 chinh thiie cfit giam t h u l theo quy dinh cua EHP, FDI cua Trung Quoc 6 ASEAN da tfing len g i n gfi'p doi, dat miJc 966,70 trieu USD. Su gia tang FDI ciia Trung Qu6c & ASEAN vfin tilp tuc trong eac nam 2005, 2006, 2007. Den nfim 2008, tdng FDI luy k l eua Trung QuIc d ASEAN I t o tdi 6.486,99 trieu USD.
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NGUYIN THU MY
Dong FDI cua Trung Quoc ehay v i o ASEAN da t i n g vot vio n i m 2010, sau khi ACFTA cd hi^u lUe. Nam 2010, ddu tQ mdi cua Trung Quo'c b ASEAN len tdi 2,iaty*'='.
Di^m d i n g iQu y trong d i u tQ trQe tig'^p cua Trung Quo'c v i o cac nen kinh t^
ASEAN Ii b cho cac cong ty Trung Quo'c dd chuyen tii ddu tU de md rdng thi trudng vd ddm bdo ngudn nguy&n lieu cho cdc nganh cdng nghiep Trung Quoc sang ddu tu xdy dUng nhd mdy, cd sd sdn xudt de khai thdc nhitng cd hoi do ACFTA dUa lai. NhQng phat trie'n mdi trong khuynh hQdng ddu tQ tren cua cic cdng ty Trung Quo'c tai ASEAN cung bac bd mot l u i n diem cho rang cac cdng ty Trung Qud'c se khong di chuyen cae ed sd san xui't t i p trung lao ddng b nUdc ho sang ASEAN, die bigt la sang eac nQdc CLMV bdi vi, khdng giong nhQ N h i t Ban, Trung Qud'c ri't doi dao ngudn lao dong khdng cd ky nang.
Mot digm dang iQu y nQa la sQ gia tang FDI cua Trung Qud'e v i o cac n^n kinh tg' ASEAN khong l i m giam ngudn FDI tQ My, N h i t Ban , EU va cac dm tac kinh tg' ldn khac chay vao ASEAN. FDI cua N h i t Ban vio ASEAN tang 124,3 % tQ 3,8 ty USD nam 2009 Ign len 4 ty nam 2010.
N h i t Ban v i n Ii nguon von d i u tQ quan trong cua ASEAN chiem 11,4 % td'ng FDI vao ASEAN n i m 2010*'^'. FDI cua My b ASEAN t i n g 100%, tQ 4,1 ty USD n i m 2009 len 8,4 ty USD n i m 2010. My I i n h i d i u tu ldn thQ ba b ASEAN"-'>. Nam 2009, FDI luy ke cua EU b ASEAN len tdi 7,2 ty USD chig'm 18,4 % td'ng FDI b ASEAN (td'ng FDI vao ASEAN n i m 2009 la 39,6 ty USD)"^>.
SQ gia tang quan he m i u dich v i d i u tQ giQa ASEAN vdi cae doi t i c kinh tg'
truyg'n thd'ng cua H i | p hgi n i y cho thi'y sU t6n tai cua khu m i u dich tQ do n i y khdng anh hudng tigu cQc tdi quan hg kinh tg^
eua My, N h i t Ban , EU doi vdi ASEAN.
Dieu n i y cd nghia Id Idi ich kinh te cud cdc nUdc ldn tren d Ddng Nam A khdng bi suy gidm do si^ hi^n di^n cua ACFTA.
Ngoii t i c ddng thue d^y hpp t i c miu dich d i u tu giQa ASEAN v i Trung Quoc, vi§c xiy dQng t h i n h cdng ACFTA edn tie ddng tfch cQc tdi quan h0 eua ASEAN vdi cie ddi-tie ddi thoai khac cua Higp h§i. Nhit Ban, My v i ngay ca EU cung cd th^ chUa nghi tdi vi§c xay dQng cic FTA song phQdng vdi ASEAN, ng'u Trung Quoc khdng d l xui't sing kig'n n i y v i tfch cQc cung ASEAN hi$n thUc hda sang kien dd.
Vi$e ti't ca cac nQdc ldn deu trien khai x i y dung khu m i u dieh tu do vdi ASEAN dang tao cd hoi cho cac t h i n h vign eua Higp hoi n i y tig'p can de d i n g hdn thi trQdng cua cac doi t i c tren. Day chinh la mot Idi ich quan trong khac m i ASEAN dang d\i(^ hQdng, du dieu n i y cd th^ nim ngoii y dinh eua Thu tudng Trung Qu6c thdi gian dd I i Chu Dung Cd, ngQdi de xui't s i n g kig'n ACFTA t^i Hoi nghi ThQ(?ng dinh ASEAN- Trung Quo'c Iin thfl 3 td chQc b Manila eieh day g i n 9 n i m .
2. Cdc tdc dpng tieu circ
NhQng liji fch kinh t^, ehfnh tri cua ACFTA I i dieu khong the phu n h i n .
Tuy nhien, nhQng hg luy kinh te- xa hoi ciia khu m i u dich n i y , d i e bi$t b cic nQdc k6m p h i t trien trong ASEAN 6, nhi't Ii Indonexia, eung I i mot thQe t ^ phai thQa n h i n . V^ ed ban, cd hai vi'n d l ldn sau da nay sinh tQ sQ hi$n dign eua ACFTA h mot s5' nQde ASEAN 6:
38
NGHIEN CllU TRUNG OUGC so 6(130) - 2012Tdc ddng cua ACFTA dd'i vdi...
2.1. Ldm gia tang thdm hut mdu dich cua ASEAN trong quan he thuang mai vdi Trung Qud'c
Theo Phd Td'ng Thu ky ASEAN phu trieh ve Cong dong Kinh te' ASEAN (AEG) Pushpannathan: "Can bang m i u dich ed Idi cho Trung Qud'c dUa trgn cac dQ lieu 3 n i m g i n day, nhQng dang giam xuo'ng. Tham hut m i u dich 21,7 ty USD trong nam 2008, da giam xuo'ng 15 ty n i m 2009 va xuong cdn 10, 7 ty n i m 2010"'"''.
Trong sd' cic nQdc ASEAN 6, tinh trang tham hut m i u dich d i l n ra n i n g n l nhi't d Indonexia. Qua trinh n i y xay ra mot cich tQ tQ v i dang trd nen ngiy eing t r i m trong hdn. N i m 2004, khi cic quy dinh cua ACFTA chUa d\iOc thQc hien d Inddnexia, t h i n g du m i u dich vdi Trung Qud'c la 195 trigu USD. T h i n g du mau dich tig'p tuc gia tang v i Ign tdi 819 trigu Bdng 3 : MAU DjCH INDON^XIA-
USD vio nam 2005, khi Inddnexia c i t giam thue dot 1 vio 1-7-2005. Tdi nam 2006, Indonexia dUdc Idi 1,7 ty USD trong quan he m i u dich vdi Trung Qud'c.
Nim 2007, t h i n g du m i u dich cua Indonexia v i n dQdc duy tri, nhUng da giam 35 % so vdi nam 2006 , xuo'ng cdn 1.1 ty USD, sau khi nUdc nay thUc hien viec cat giam thue' vdng 2 tQ ngay 1-1- 2007.
Nam 2008, Inddnexia b i t d i u bi tham hut m i u dich vdi Trung Qud'c. MQc tham hut len tdi 3,6 ty USD<'^. Nam 2009, mQc t h i m hut giam xud'ng 2,6 ty USD, nhUng lai tang len gi'p ddi so vdi nam trudc Ign tdi 5,6 ty . T h i n g 1/2011, t h i m hut tang 40 % so vdi cung ky 2010 ( Xem Bang 3).
T R U N G Q U O C T U 2 0 0 4 - 1 / 2 0 1 1 ( U S D ) Nam
2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2009 2010 ThSng 1/2010 ThSns 1/2011
Xuat khau 4.927.233.190 6.662.353,805 8.343.571.337 9.675512.723 11.636.503.721 11.499327.261 14.080.900 1.010.900 1.152.700.000
Nhap khau 4.101.331.098 5.842.862.513 6.636.895.111 8.557.877.121 15.247.168.927 14.054809.205 19.688.000 1.406.000 1.815.200.000
T h | n g duy Tham hut 195.902,013 819 491.292 1.706.676226 1.117.635.602 -3.610.665.206 -2.555.481.944 -5.607.100.000 -395.100.000 -662.500.000
Nguon The Central Statistics AgencyC BPS)
d Thai lan, thfim h u t mfiu dich vfli Trung Qufe diSn r a ngay til lihi h a i nufic chuyin trong tfim hdp tac tii chinh tri- an ninh sang doi tac kinh te.
NGHIEN CllU TRUNG OUfC so 6(130) - 2012
39
NGUY§N THU MY
Bdng 4 : QUAN H$ M A U DjCH T H A I LAN- TRUNG a u 6 c 1991-2008
(Ban ui tinh : Trifu USD)
Nfim 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200e(Jan-Sep)
Tdng mfiu djch 8,452.54 11,69124 15,257,08 20,325,57 25,331,95 31,046,61 28,635,04
Xuil kh j u 3.555,04 5.688 92 7,113,45 9,167,55 11,727,95 14,821,71 12,855,18
NhSpkhJu 4,897,50 6,002,32 8,143,62 11,158,02 13.604,00 16,224,90 15,779.85
c a n b i n g m l u djch -1.342.47
-313,41 -1,030,17 -1,990,47 -1.876,05 -1.403.18
•2.924.67
NguSn: Ministry of Commerce (Information and Communication Technology Center with Cooperation of the Customs Department}
MQc tham hut d i giam 1.342,47 ty USD n i m 2002 xud'ng cdn 313,41 tri$u USD n i m 2003, sau khi Thai Lan c i t giam thue' theo EHP vio n g i y 1/10/ 2003.
Tuy nhien, trong cic n i m tiep theo, tham hut m i u dich cua Thai Lan vdi Trung Quoc lai t i n g manh , len tdi 2.924,67 trieu USD trong thdi gian tQ t h i n g 1 tdi t h i n g 9 n i m 2008. (Xem Bang 4).
Nam 2010, m i u dich Thii- Trung dat 52,95 ty USD t i n g 38,6 % so vdi n i m trudc"^'. Tuy nhien, tinh trang t h i m h u t m i u dich cua T h i i Lan v i n tie'p tuc.
Theo mot sd' n h i nghign cQu Thai Lan, t h i m hut m i u dich da trd t h i n h m^t trong 3 vi'n d l ldn ean trd sQ p h i t t r i l n cua quan hg Thai Lan - Trung Quo'c trong nhQng n i m s i p tdi.
Xinhgapo, nUde ed trinh do phat t r i l n cao nhi't cua ASEAN, eung chiu t h i m h u t m i u dieh vdi Trung Qud'c. NhQng so li§u cua Ban Thu ky ASEAN cho thi'y n i m 2004, Xinhgapo xui't k h i u iQdng h i n g hda tri gia 15.312 tri^u USD sang Trung Quoc, nhQng gii tri n h i p k h i u tQ nQde
n i y Ign tdi 16.137 trigu USD. Cac n i m tig'p theo, gia tri xui't kh^u d i u thtfp hdn gii tri n h i p k h i u . VI du, n i m 2008, tong gii tr} xui't k h i u eua Xingapo sang Trung Quoc I i 29.082 trieu USD, trong khi dd td'ng gii tri n h i p k h i u I i 31.583 trieu USD (Xem Bang 1 ) .
Dilm qua tinh trang t h i m hut miu dich eua cae nQdc ASEAN 6 vdi Trung Quoc c6 t h i thi'y h i u nhQ nQdc n i o cung chiu thua thigt trong quan hg m i u dich vdi Trung Quo'c. Su k h i c n h a u giiia cic nQdc dd ehi I i mQc dd tham hut m i thdi.
Di4u ddng lUu y Id mUc dd thdm hut mau dich cua cdc nUdc dd vdi Trung Quoc tdng ty le thudn vdi toe do cat giam thue theo ACFTA.
TQ thQc tg' trgn cd t h i ndi dang cd sU phdn phdt khdng cdng bang cdc Idi ich cua ACFTA Nude dUdc Idi nhiiu hdn tit ACFTA Id Trung Qudc. NhQ v i y , eho tdi nay ACFTA chUa phdi Id mot khu vUc mdu dich tU do cdng thdng m i mot so' q u a n chQc v i n h i nghign cQu Trung Qud'c thQdng ndi.
NGHIEN CIJIU TRUNG QUOC so 6(130) - 2012
T^c dpng cua ACFTA ddi vdi...
2.2. Tinh trang phd sdn doanh nghiep dang dien ra tai mpt sd nUdc ASEAN dudi tdc ddng cua ACFTA
Viec h o i n ti't c i t giam thug' theo quy dinh cua ACFTA d i khie'n cho h i n g hda, die biet la eac s i n p h i m cua eic nginh cong nghiep t i p trung lao ddng t r i n n g i p thi trUdng cua mdt so' nude ASEAN, d$e biet I i thi trUdng cac nUde kgm p h i t trien hdn trong nhdm ASEAN 6. Tinh trang n i y d i anh hudng xi'u tdi sQ p h i t trien cua cac nginh cdng nghigp eung loai cua cic nUdc dd. Theo n h i nghign cQu Inddnexia, Martin Manurung, it nhi't cd 10 nginh che' tao cua Inddngxia ehiu anh huSng tigu CQc tQ ACFTA. D6 Ii: dgt v i san pham det; cdng nghiep thuc p h i m va do ud'ng, cong nghiep hda d i u , cong nghigp san xui't m i y v i thig't bi ndng nghiep, cdng nghigp do Idt, cdng nghiep sdi tdng hdp; dien tQ bao gom thie't bi cap v i dien tQ, cdng nghiep san xui't miy, xay dQng v i cdng nghiep thep. Ty le that nghigp do ddng cQa cd thg len tdi 7,5 trieu ngUdi va d i n tdi gia t i n g tinh trang nghio khd*'^'.
Cdn theo Hiep hdi cong nghiep det d Inddnexia, trong 2 n i m qua da cd 271 nha may det ddng cvia do sQ canh tranh cua Trung Qud'e'^"'.
0 Malaixia, tinh trang ddng ciia nha m i y san xui't do t i e ddng eua ACFTA cung dang diln ra. Theo Phdng ThUdng mai v i Cdng nghigp Hiep hoi ngUdi Hoa cua Malaixia, trong so' hdn 4000 doanh nghigp vQa v i nhd trong n g i n h dgt v i q u i n ao may s i n cua nQde nay d i cd 3000 doanh nghiep ddngcia*^".
Ngoii sQ p h i san cua h i n g loat doanh nghiep vQa v i nhd trong cac nganh cdng nghiep tap trung lao ddng, Malaixia edn phai chQng kig'n vige mot so edng ty nhQ Motorola, Sony Electronics, Acer
Technlogy v i Philips Semiconductors da chuyen cic n h i m i y cua ho sang Trung Qud'c de khai t h i c chi phi lao dong thi'p va t i n dung cac Idi ich tQ ACFTA.
3. Mot vai n h i n x6t
TQ thQc tg' v l Idi fch v i thua thi^t cua cac nQdc ASEAN 6 do tac dong cua vide hien thUc hda ACFTA cd the nit ra mot so'nhin xdt sau:
ThU nhdt, ACFTA da giup ASEAN v i Trung Qud'c dat dUdc muc tieu cd ban nhi't khi quyg't dinh xay dUng khu mau dich tQ do niy. Dd I i gia tang quan hg m i u dich va d i u tQ giQa hai ben.
ThU hai, lien k i t kinh te' ASEAN- Trung Quo'c, trong thUc tg', chUa gay phQdng hai cho quan he kinh te' cua Hiep hoi vdi cac doi tac kinh te khic. NgQdc lai, ACFTA con gian tig'p tao ra luc diy cho quan he kinh te giQa ASEAN va cac nUdc do.
Thit ba, nhQng tac ddng tieu cQc cua ACFTA doi vdi m i u dich v i v i mdt so' nganh cong nghiep cua vai nQdc ASEIAN la khd tranh khoi, khi cac nQdc dd tham gia vio tien trinh tQ do hda mau dich n i y vdi nang luc canh tranh thi'p. Viec h i n g hda chg' tao cua Trung Quo'c t r i n v i o Indo ngxia, Philippin I i mot thUc t l . Tuy nhien, sU tran n g i p hang hoa gia re nhQng cha't lUdng khdng thua kdm h i n g ndi dia cua cic nQdc dd, khong phai chi dem tdi thua thiet. That viy," TQ gdc do ngUdi tieu dung, ACFTA ed t i e dpng tich cQc vi thi trQcfng t r i n n g i p h i n g hda vdi gii thi'p v i CO nhieu iQa chpn hdn"*^'.
Cudi cung, mae du dang phai chiu nhQng thua thiet trUdc mat cua mdt sd' n g i n h edng nghiep trong nQdc, dU luan ehung b Inddngxia, Malaixia v i mdt so nUdc ASEAN k h i e deu thQa n h i n eac Idi ich eiia ACFTA d tam trung va d i i ban.
NGHIEN Clhl TRUNG QUd'C s o 6(130} - 2012
41
NGUYEN THU MY
Do viy, vi'n de d i t ra cho ASEAN cung nhu cho cic nQdc t h i n h vien cua nd "
khdng phdi la huy bo hicp dinh md Id van ddng de qudn ly td't hdn vd hudng l^i tU nd"''^^^, dung nhQ khuye'n nghj eua hai n h i kinh te Hank Lim and Simon Tay cua Vi^n nghien cQu Ddng Nam A, Xingapo . CHUTHlCH:
(1) Dan theo H.E.Spushpannathan, Deputy Secretary- General for ASEAN Economic Community trong bdi ph4t bilu tjii "ASEAN- China SME Conference, Ministerial Forum:
"Maximising Trade under ACFTA - How ASEAN and China Benefit from FTA", www.asean.org/ASEAN -ChinaSME.June.20l I.pdf
(2) So li^u trfch tir " CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT OF THE 14th ASEAN-CHINA SUMMIT " BALI. INDONESIA, 18 NOVEMBER 20nwww.asean.Org/documents/19th%20summit/C H-CS.pdf
(3) H.E.Spushpannathan, Bii da dan (4) China-ASEAN 2011 bilateral trade to hit record h i ehf w ww. asean-china-center.org/engl ish/
201I-]l/I7/c_13125205.htm
(5) So li^u din tir " Seminar on China- Singapore Free Trade Agreement & ASEAN- China Free Trade Agreement Seizing opportunities in Growing China &. ASEAN Markets, 23 February 2011. (wwsbf.sg/download/
d6c/eventsvc/evenl2011.02.23.pdf
(6) Din theo Firman Mutakin dan Aziza Rahmaniar Salam, " The impact of ASEAN- China Free Trade relations Agreement on Indonesia trade". Bii ding tren: Economic Review.No.218. December 2009 www.bni.co.id/
POrlals/0/Documenl/Ulasan%20Ekonomv/Impaci%
20Qm20ACFTA.pdf
(7) So li^u dSn tCr bii "ASEAN- Japan Dialogue Relations (www.asean.org/5740.htm)
(8) Joint Statement of the 3rd ASEAN-U.S.
Leaders' Meeting. Bali, Indonesia, 18, November 2011 www.asean.org/26742.htm
(9) Xem : H.E.S. Pushpannathan, Deputy Secretary- General for ASEAN Economic Community. Bii d5 dSn
(10) S6 li§u lAy tir bii China's direct investment to ASEAN countries reaches 2.57b(www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/20I0- 03/02/contenl_l2104984.htm
(11) vd cic Id trinh niy c6 thd tham khdo b^i vidt ciia NguySn Thu My X^ djfng Khu mgu d/cli Iv do ASEAN - Trung quSc : Qud trinh vii nhiing liil qua budc ddu // Nghien cuu Trung Quoc , So 10/2010
(12) D3n theo H.E.S. Pushpannathan, Deputy Secretary- General for ASEAN Economic Community . Bii da dSn
(13) S6 li^u dSn tir bii "ASEAN- Japan Dialogue Relations (www.asean.org/5740.htm)
(14) Joint Statement of the 3rd ASEAN-U.S.
Leaders' Meeting. Bali, Indonesia, 18 November 2011 www.asean.ore/26742.htm
(15) Overview of ASEAN-EU Dialogue Relationswww.asean.org/23261 .htm
(16) Xem : Pushpannathan, Bdi da dan (l7)C&cs6 li^u v^ th$ng du vi thSm hgt mau dich cua Inddngxia vdi Trung Qudc dircrc danrad day dupe d§n l^i tir bii "ICRA Indonesia Comment, " The impacts of ACFTA to Indonesia- China Trade " Icraindonesia.com/upIoads/The Impacts ofACFTA6025U.pdf
(i 8) Bilateral Relations www.fTnprc.gov.cn/ene/
wib/zzie/Vz/eiib/2787^
(19) Martin Manurung, "ACFTA: Indonesia's Next Agenda" Martinmanunmg.com/ /acfla- indonexia.
(20) Yang Mu and Heng Siam-Heng,
"Promoting China-ASEAN Economic Cooperation under CAFTA Framework". International Journal of China Studies , Vol. 1, No. 3, December 2010, pp. 675
(21) Emile Kok-Kheng-Yeoh,Kim Soo Yooand Lionel Wei Li Liong " China and East Asian integration Inception of ACFTA and APEC ".
International o f Journal China Studies , Vol.1.
No.l January 2010 (cmsad.um.edu.my/images/Ic/I JCVlNI/yeohyoliong.pdO
(22) D4nh gii cua ICRA Indonesia . Bii da din (23) Hank Lim and Simon Tay : Free Trade : No Pain, No Gain ( TodayOnIine.com/ /free - trade -No-Pain),